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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will the polling on air strikes against ISIS persuade Dave

SystemSystem Posts: 11,688
edited August 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will the polling on air strikes against ISIS persuade Dave to intervene?

Isil poses a direct and deadly threat to Britain. The poisonous extremism on the march in Iraq and Syria affects us all – and we have no choice but to rise to the challenge.

Read the full story here


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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    edited August 2014
    Air strike by poll. Better than by focus group, I suspect.

    We should. And we should give what aid we can to the Kurds. May create a future problem from the Turks regarding Kurdistan but the alternative is a state covering Syria and Iraq with the very worst deranged zeal mankind has to offer. It'll massively destabilise the region and be a threat to us as well.

    Edited extra bit: BBC ticker reporting all the ebola patients in the centre that was attacked have left the centre. Not clear if that's a medical evacuation or if they've run off.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    India 62/6 half-way through the Test match in terms of time.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    CBA to read the last thread but it's good like religion gets an outing on a Sunday. I assume, like most religions, the participants spoke but didn't listen.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    This woman wrote one of the most racist columns I have read earlier on in the month. If she had been a white person talking about black people she may have been charged with some kind of ridiculous hate crime, so I don't for a minute think the Lib Dems are a bunch of racist loons....

    But still...

    "A woman nicknamed the Hackney heroine for standing up to rioters in 2011 has announced she is stepping down from the race to be Liberal Democrat president over the party's "neanderthal views on diversity"."

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/aug/17/hackney-heroine-pauline-pearce-lib-dem-presidential-race
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Mr. JS, does make me wonder what sort of odds one could've gotten on India's recent performances.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    It's going to happen, opinion polls or no opinion polls.
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    From BBC Live text:

    "incredibly, for the fourth innings in a row, India are 66-6. Diabolical."
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2014
    India 70/7.

    England scored 101 runs in 11 overs this morning.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,466
    FPT @Smarmeron

    Yes, the primary objective of a company is to make money, and like providers of auto repair, clothing, food, furniture, housing etc., they compete with each other to offer a service to customers at the right price. In my view that's what healthcare should be like.

    It would be nice if people were still motivated by old fashioned motives like duty and having a vocation but let's face it, that's not our society any more.
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    AndyJS said:

    India 70/7.

    England scored 101 runs in 11 overs this morning.

    Give the Caste-botherers hell! :)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    India 74/8.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Against IS probably the best start with air strikes is to destroy all the oil and gas facilities under their control. Cut their income. Obviously any military depots and training areas too, but be careful as (like Hamas) these probably have human shields.

    SeanT's blog does point out that this sort of extreme ideology tends to be self destructive in purges and faction fighting. Mind you that is probably what the Jews of Medina and idol worshippers of Mecca thought...

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banu_Qurayza
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    edited August 2014
    SeanT said:

    I'd be amazed if there is any serious difference between rUK voters and Scottish voters about the rights and wrongs of hitting ISIS.

    If there are, and the Scots are totally cool with murdering jihadists and their genocidal butchery, then that indeed is a good reason for a YES vote.

    Scottish voters are more in favour of RAF intervention than English & Welsh voters.

    Scottish voters: 80% approve, 8% disapprove, net approval 72%

    E&W voters: 74% approve, 13% disapprove, net approval 61%

    My point was, that getting involved in Iraq again, may bring back memories of 2003, which won't be good for Better Together.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Type "India" into Twitter and most of the results are to do with cricket. So the game must still be fairly popular over there.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2014
    Another India run-out, would you believe.

    84/9.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    SeanT said:

    I'd be amazed if there is any serious difference between rUK voters and Scottish voters about the rights and wrongs of hitting ISIS.

    If there are, and the Scots are totally cool with murdering jihadists and their genocidal butchery, then that indeed is a good reason for a YES vote.

    I am sure you will be enlisting Sean. Fine to be a fire eating warmongeror when sitting swilling champers etc. We got a kicking the last time and would get the same again.
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    India 86 for 9.

    They just need a last wicket stand of 252 to make England bat a second time.

    Humiliation.
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    AndyJS said:

    Type "India" into Twitter and most of the results are to do with cricket. So the game must still be fairly popular over there.

    If only they were taught how to play a pukka sport like football, they could now be the footballing Brazil of Asia :)
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited August 2014
    @Luckyguy1983
    That's right,there isn't a sense of duty anymore, society has come to be about the individual. Competition is good, but when it is taken to extremes it leads to a fragmentation of society where all that is left is to grab what you can .

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    I'd be amazed if there is any serious difference between rUK voters and Scottish voters about the rights and wrongs of hitting ISIS.

    If there are, and the Scots are totally cool with murdering jihadists and their genocidal butchery, then that indeed is a good reason for a YES vote.

    I am sure you will be enlisting Sean. Fine to be a fire eating warmongeror when sitting swilling champers etc. We got a kicking the last time and would get the same again.
    You hate Britain so much you revel when British troops are "given a kicking" - i.e. killed. Nice.
    Pathetic response, you are full of wind and piss and false bravado. Easy when sitting in luxury. The whole thing was caused by Westminster and the US in the first place, they have made such a mess of it the last thing we need is them meddling again.
    As you will well know Scottish troops are always at the forefront when the kickings are being given out. Pathetic jingoistic halfwits like yourself that need to have a rethink, or put your money where your mouth is and go do something about it.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,466
    Smarmeron said:

    @Luckyguy1983
    That's right,there isn't a sense of duty anymore, society has come to be about the individual. Competition is good, but when it is taken to extremes it leads to a fragmentation of society where all that is left is to grab what you can .

    Precisely. And in the absence of that sense of duty, let's not pretend that it still exists, and arrange our healthcare system accordingly. Self-interest (not necessarily a bad thing) never goes out of fashion. If it's in an organisation's interest to clean up an elderly person who has had an accident, they will. If it isn't, as we have seen, they won't.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    England win, India all out 94.

    It's not all bad news for Indian cricket — the women's team beat England a few days ago at Sir Paul Getty's Wormsley ground in Bucks:

    http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/aug/16/india-women-test-win-england-wormsley
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Luckyguy1983
    Who needs people who care? Money can buy you that. and always at a new lower price.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Can the RAF make a difference, or would we be holding the Americans' coattails? We've no carriers, so where would we fly from? Presumably even the Saudis have more planes in theatre than we do. Hammond's plan to reduce the armed forces to the SAS and an expanded TA might have a downside.

    How do we retake the Mosul dam? Surely IS will just blow the thing up if we looked like defeating them -- flooding surrounding villages and cutting off hydroelectric power to large parts of Iraq.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    I'd be amazed if there is any serious difference between rUK voters and Scottish voters about the rights and wrongs of hitting ISIS.

    If there are, and the Scots are totally cool with murdering jihadists and their genocidal butchery, then that indeed is a good reason for a YES vote.

    I am sure you will be enlisting Sean. Fine to be a fire eating warmongeror when sitting swilling champers etc. We got a kicking the last time and would get the same again.
    You hate Britain so much you revel when British troops are "given a kicking" - i.e. killed. Nice.
    Pathetic response, you are full of wind and piss and false bravado. Easy when sitting in luxury. The whole thing was caused by Westminster and the US in the first place, they have made such a mess of it the last thing we need is them meddling again.
    As you will well know Scottish troops are always at the forefront when the kickings are being given out. Pathetic jingoistic halfwits like yourself that need to have a rethink, or put your money where your mouth is and go do something about it.
    You wouldn't even stop a genocide? I always thought that underneath your mad, repellent, hate-filled, lunatic, spittle-frothing gibberish there was probably a decent if deluded old man with incontinency issues.

    Now I see I was right, apart from the "decent" bit.
    Dear Dear , you had one too many
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,824
    SeanT Vs MalcG

    *Gets Popcorn*
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited August 2014
    @DecrepitJohnL
    Risk assessment, Leaving the dam under IS control is worse than taking the risk of it being blown, as they will only blow it up later if it suits their plans.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,004

    Can the RAF make a difference, or would we be holding the Americans' coattails? We've no carriers, so where would we fly from? Presumably even the Saudis have more planes in theatre than we do. Hammond's plan to reduce the armed forces to the SAS and an expanded TA might have a downside.

    How do we retake the Mosul dam? Surely IS will just blow the thing up if we looked like defeating them -- flooding surrounding villages and cutting off hydroelectric power to large parts of Iraq.

    As well as wrecking the irrigation system, and hence the agriculture, of Iraq for some years to come.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,824

    We've no carriers, so where would we fly from?

    Could we fly from Cyprus?

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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    We are already intervening with RAF reconnaisance flights which are pretty essential if you want to know where who and what is. We are already intervening with aid. I would be surprised if SAS were not already on the ground. US special forces are on the ground.
    America has major capability with its airforce and airborn infantry as well as special forces. Is there much we can add?

    We may well intervene more actively but not without US support. A unilateral intervention is surely out of the question. We may well intevene with more training for Iraqi forces - it looks as if they need it. We may intervene with arms to those able and willing to fight for their country.

    But ladies and gentlemen before we do anything we need to know what iraq itself is capable of and what it wants. We need to know where these ISIS murderers are and how strong they really are and we need a coherent strategy for defeating them. I would support our adding our bombs to the Americans, there are people in immediate need of support, but those cheerleading for more of the same need to work out what that will actually achieve.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,466
    SeanT said:

    I'd be amazed if there is any serious difference between rUK voters and Scottish voters about the rights and wrongs of hitting ISIS.

    If there are, and the Scots are totally cool with murdering jihadists and their genocidal butchery, then that indeed is a good reason for a YES vote.

    For me it's a little more complicated than that, in that I mistrust the Government, and therefore, though I would like nothing more than to see ISIS obliterated, I am very wary of giving my assent to military action on the grounds that:
    -I don't want mission creep, and 'events' leading us to further action in the middle east to take revenge on Assad or anyone else who happens to be on our shitlist
    -I don't want our military forces further depleted to the extent that we are totally unable to defend our own country (let alone our overseas possessions), and we're either in danger, or bounced into accepting the amalgamation of our remaining forces into the European defence force
    -I don't want us to spend money and lives supporting America's geo-political aims in the region, which in many cases do not align with our own.

    If none of these things concern you, then I can understand your unequivocal support for military action, but don't forget, if the army cannot fulfil its basic purpose, there will be no future military interventions to save people in trouble.

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I read IS do not yet have the kit to blow the dam in place, which is why the kurds are trying to retake it now.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    SeanT said:

    Can the RAF make a difference, or would we be holding the Americans' coattails? We've no carriers, so where would we fly from? Presumably even the Saudis have more planes in theatre than we do. Hammond's plan to reduce the armed forces to the SAS and an expanded TA might have a downside.

    How do we retake the Mosul dam? Surely IS will just blow the thing up if we looked like defeating them -- flooding surrounding villages and cutting off hydroelectric power to large parts of Iraq.

    The Kurds and Iraqis are trying to retake Mosul Dam right now. That's a start.

    Also we don't need an aircraft carrier - we have two sovereign air-bases in Cyprus.

    I agree our forces are horribly enfeebled. The last few months prove that Defense spending needs to go up, and some other department must suffer. We live in troubled times, and that's just the way it is.
    You turnip we caused the troubled times. Desperate to get their hands on teh oil they toppled Saddam and hey presto. If Saddam was there these turkeys would be swinging from lamposts. Still Blair, Bush and their pals all did well out of it and they still have idiots like you to cry for more so they can make even more the next time.
    Let the people in the middle east sort out their own problems.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    Can the RAF make a difference, or would we be holding the Americans' coattails? We've no carriers, so where would we fly from? Presumably even the Saudis have more planes in theatre than we do. Hammond's plan to reduce the armed forces to the SAS and an expanded TA might have a downside.

    How do we retake the Mosul dam? Surely IS will just blow the thing up if we looked like defeating them -- flooding surrounding villages and cutting off hydroelectric power to large parts of Iraq.

    The Kurds and Iraqis are trying to retake Mosul Dam right now. That's a start.

    Also we don't need an aircraft carrier - we have two sovereign air-bases in Cyprus.

    I agree our forces are horribly enfeebled. The last few months prove that Defense spending needs to go up, and some other department must suffer. We live in troubled times, and that's just the way it is.
    If ISIS had controlled the dam they would surely have blown it up without hesitation, flooding half the country, killing hundreds of thousands of innocents. So I tend to think they didn't control it, as some were reporting.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SeanT
    The answer is not going to be found in "boots on the ground". (except in the case of a couple of "lost" westerners on a desert hunting trip).
    The people of the region need to sort out their own problems. Help them where you can, but the West must follow their lead.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Let the people in the middle east sort out their own problems.

    Intervention in Iraq is nothing to do with Iraq. It is to do with what is happening (or what is perceived to be happening) in Britain.

    IS flags, Pro IS leaflets handed out in Oxford Street, People being intimidated in supermarkets for buying Israeli goods, Jihadis returning from war torn areas with murder in mind.

    This is all about domestic politics.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,466
    Well, we could give military aid to Assad in order to help him retake Raqqa. That is their main base is it not? They're going to have to be uprooted from both sides if they're to be permanently dealt with.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Smarmeron said:

    @Luckyguy1983
    That's right,there isn't a sense of duty anymore, society has come to be about the individual. Competition is good, but when it is taken to extremes it leads to a fragmentation of society where all that is left is to grab what you can .

    Precisely. And in the absence of that sense of duty, let's not pretend that it still exists, and arrange our healthcare system accordingly. Self-interest (not necessarily a bad thing) never goes out of fashion. If it's in an organisation's interest to clean up an elderly person who has had an accident, they will. If it isn't, as we have seen, they won't.
    When people pay their own care costs it is not a particularly price sensitive market (or even a particularly quality sensitive market). Like Lawyers and Clerics people mostly choose by convenience and also personal recommendation. In that market a provider has a long term interest in good customer service, but whether this equates to good medical care is a moot point.

    Private hospitals have good parking, free coffee and papers and run close to time, but do not feel it profitable or viable to take on all comers or deliver Cinderella services like obstetrics or casualty. And just try to get insurance if you have Diabetes. Private provision leaves a lot of gaps to be picked up by a safety net service.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,824
    edited August 2014
    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    Can the RAF make a difference, or would we be holding the Americans' coattails? We've no carriers, so where would we fly from? Presumably even the Saudis have more planes in theatre than we do. Hammond's plan to reduce the armed forces to the SAS and an expanded TA might have a downside.

    How do we retake the Mosul dam? Surely IS will just blow the thing up if we looked like defeating them -- flooding surrounding villages and cutting off hydroelectric power to large parts of Iraq.

    The Kurds and Iraqis are trying to retake Mosul Dam right now. That's a start.

    Also we don't need an aircraft carrier - we have two sovereign air-bases in Cyprus.

    I agree our forces are horribly enfeebled. The last few months prove that Defense spending needs to go up, and some other department must suffer. We live in troubled times, and that's just the way it is.
    You turnip we caused the troubled times. Desperate to get their hands on teh oil they toppled Saddam and hey presto. If Saddam was there these turkeys would be swinging from lamposts. Still Blair, Bush and their pals all did well out of it and they still have idiots like you to cry for more so they can make even more the next time.
    Let the people in the middle east sort out their own problems.
    Nobody is denying our culpability in creating the problem, but that doesn't help the Yazidi men and women who are currently having their heads cut off and being raped.

    So the question is; How can we best help out these minorities now?

    Maybe we can help out militarily, maybe not, but it needs debating sensibly and the fact we helped create this situation isn't helpful in moving us forward, neither is making it a personal issue and ranting and raving at people who have a different view to you...
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT Vs MalcG

    *Gets Popcorn*

    hehe...!
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited August 2014
    Shortly before the invasion of Iraq I was doing an ad for P&G in Beirut. At a conversation on the way from the airport my Lebanese producer said invading Iraq would be such a disaster he couldn't believe the US would really do it. He explained some of the ethnic divisions and said it would make the past twenty five years in Lebanon look like a mere skirmish.

    He accurately predicted that defeating Saddam would take no time but the hornets nest that would be disturbed would wreak havoc way beyond both our lifetimes.

    I've often wondered why if this information was so obvious to those in the area it wasn't known to our intelligence services?

    And in answer to the header all I can say is that it's a pity the 40% who would like to get further involved didn't share with me the wisdom of Yusef Ayoub.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    Can the RAF make a difference, or would we be holding the Americans' coattails? We've no carriers, so where would we fly from? Presumably even the Saudis have more planes in theatre than we do. Hammond's plan to reduce the armed forces to the SAS and an expanded TA might have a downside.

    How do we retake the Mosul dam? Surely IS will just blow the thing up if we looked like defeating them -- flooding surrounding villages and cutting off hydroelectric power to large parts of Iraq.

    The Kurds and Iraqis are trying to retake Mosul Dam right now. That's a start.

    Also we don't need an aircraft carrier - we have two sovereign air-bases in Cyprus.

    I agree our forces are horribly enfeebled. The last few months prove that Defense spending needs to go up, and some other department must suffer. We live in troubled times, and that's just the way it is.
    You turnip we caused the troubled times. Desperate to get their hands on teh oil they toppled Saddam and hey presto. If Saddam was there these turkeys would be swinging from lamposts. Still Blair, Bush and their pals all did well out of it and they still have idiots like you to cry for more so they can make even more the next time.
    Let the people in the middle east sort out their own problems.
    Nobody is denying our culpability in creating the problem, but that doesn't help the Yazidi men and women who are currently having their heads cut off and being raped.

    So the question is; How can we best help out these minorities now?

    Maybe we can help out militarily, maybe not, but it needs debating sensibly and the fact we helped create this situation isn't helpful in moving us forward, neither is making it a personal issue and ranting and raving at people who have a different view to you...
    maybe we could all wreck a supermarket, it seems to be the current thinking for Gaza

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11039210/Tesco-store-trashed-by-Gaza-protesters.html
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The idea of what they might do when they come "home" is chilling

    What's more chilling is that any government in its right mind, with the safety of its citizens and preservation of law and order its number one priority, would let them come back.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    Can the RAF make a difference, or would we be holding the Americans' coattails? We've no carriers, so where would we fly from? Presumably even the Saudis have more planes in theatre than we do. Hammond's plan to reduce the armed forces to the SAS and an expanded TA might have a downside.

    How do we retake the Mosul dam? Surely IS will just blow the thing up if we looked like defeating them -- flooding surrounding villages and cutting off hydroelectric power to large parts of Iraq.

    The Kurds and Iraqis are trying to retake Mosul Dam right now. That's a start.

    Also we don't need an aircraft carrier - we have two sovereign air-bases in Cyprus.

    I agree our forces are horribly enfeebled. The last few months prove that Defense spending needs to go up, and some other department must suffer. We live in troubled times, and that's just the way it is.
    You turnip we caused the troubled times. Desperate to get their hands on teh oil they toppled Saddam and hey presto. If Saddam was there these turkeys would be swinging from lamposts. Still Blair, Bush and their pals all did well out of it and they still have idiots like you to cry for more so they can make even more the next time.
    Let the people in the middle east sort out their own problems.
    Nobody is denying our culpability in creating the problem, but that doesn't help the Yazidi men and women who are currently having their heads cut off and being raped.

    So the question is; How can we best help out these minorities now?

    Maybe we can help out militarily, maybe not, but it needs debating sensibly and the fact we helped create this situation isn't helpful in moving us forward, neither is making it a personal issue and ranting and raving at people who have a different view to you...
    Where are the Iraqui's we spent countless billions arming and training. We will only cause more trouble, let them sort it out themselves.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Mr. Taffys, if we assume ISIS is defeated (a nice thought) then British fighters for it may try and come back. If they flee to Jordan, Lebanon or other nearby states, would we be able to know what they'd been doing?

    A few are obvious (they've been in videos) but most won't be.

    And, if they're British citizens, would there be legal grounds not to?

    I'm not saying we should let them back in. I'm saying there are serious problems trying to keep them out, and I hope the government is seriously looking at this whilst the flow is out of, rather than into, the country.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    maybe we could all wreck a supermarket, it seems to be the current thinking for Gaza

    One British person has already been beheaded, how long until the next one??

    Meanwhile, the silence from UKIP is almost overwhelming. Nothing on this topic. Nothing on Islamification. Nothing on Gaza. Nothing on Iraq. Nothing on any of this.

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    taffys said:

    maybe we could all wreck a supermarket, it seems to be the current thinking for Gaza

    One British person has already been beheaded, how long until the next one??

    Meanwhile, the silence from UKIP is almost overwhelming. Nothing on this topic. Nothing on Islamification. Nothing on Gaza. Nothing on Iraq. Nothing on any of this.

    I'm sure MikeK will be along soon tell you why it's all Cameron's fault.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Morris_Dancer
    It would be a fair assumption that the Yazidi's now training in the Kurdish north, are not liable to take many prisoners alive.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,727
    Salmond to 'clarify' his currency position:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28827056
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    And, if they're British citizens, would there be legal grounds not to?

    The first duty of any government is the law and order and the safety of its people. The very first. I don;t know what it would take to stop these people coming back, I really don't.

    But the government should do whatever it takes. That is its primary duty.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Mr. Smarmeron, I agree (and would add those taken alive would likely suffer lingering rather than sudden deaths).

    However, if defeat seems likely the lunatics will melt away rather than stand and fight.

    We have to be prepared.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Well, we could give military aid to Assad in order to help him retake Raqqa. That is their main base is it not? They're going to have to be uprooted from both sides if they're to be permanently dealt with.

    There's the rub. The tin-foil conspiracy theorists would allege that America does not want to help Assad. Firstly, they don't like Assad; secondly and more importantly, they don't like Assad's ally, Russia. And the wilder conspiracy theorists would add that nor does America much care for Iran, Al Qaeda or Hezbollah, who are also among IS's enemies.

    Bringing peace to the Middle East might be hard.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Morris_Dancer
    I agree, but there is a difference between "prepared" and "paranoid"
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    edited August 2014
    Mr. Taffys, I concur. Changes to the law are likely necessary (I remember talk from May that she wanted to be allowed to revoke citizenship even if it made some stateless).

    Worth mentioning also some, especially earlier on, did go to Syria to try and make things better, either working as medics or fighting for the FSA. However, I think it would probably be almost impossible (barring video evidence either way) to prove that.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Smarmeron, this conversation hasn't reached the paranoid border yet. We've had multiple successful and failed terrorist attempts in the UK, and hundreds of UK citizens are fighting for ISIS. Preparing for their return is essential, and common sense.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Morris_Dancer
    Guilty until proven innocent?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,466
    Roger said:

    Shortly before the invasion of Iraq I was doing an ad for P&G in Beirut. At a conversation on the way from the airport my Lebanese producer said invading Iraq would be such a disaster he couldn't believe the US would really do it. He explained some of the ethnic divisions and said it would make the past twenty five years in Lebanon look like a mere skirmish.

    He accurately predicted that defeating Saddam would take no time but the hornets nest that would be disturbed would wreak havoc way beyond both our lifetimes.

    I've often wondered why if this information was so obvious to those in the area it wasn't known to our intelligence services?

    And in answer to the header all I can say is that it's a pity the 40% who would like to get further involved didn't share with me the wisdom of Yusef Ayoub.

    Because a chaotic failed state riven with ethnic and religious strife serves the interests of the US and its regional partners better than a functioning Arab nationalist dictatorship? (see also Libya) (see also Syria)


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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Mr. Smarmeron, detained, perhaps, until cleared. Someone visiting (say) family in Lebanon can have their story checked. If they use Twitter, Facebook etc that might also be checked.

    Just letting in potentially hundreds of ISIS fighters to the UK would be insane. If preventing that means good men waiting for a few weeks or months in detention, it's worth it.

    Would you just let everybody in, and count the days until a terrorist atrocity or several happen in the UK?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,466
    edited August 2014

    Well, we could give military aid to Assad in order to help him retake Raqqa. That is their main base is it not? They're going to have to be uprooted from both sides if they're to be permanently dealt with.

    There's the rub. The tin-foil conspiracy theorists would allege that America does not want to help Assad. Firstly, they don't like Assad; secondly and more importantly, they don't like Assad's ally, Russia. And the wilder conspiracy theorists would add that nor does America much care for Iran, Al Qaeda or Hezbollah, who are also among IS's enemies.

    Bringing peace to the Middle East might be hard.
    Less tinfoil conspiracy, more cast iron fact I'd have said. Nevertheless, if we're serious about ISIS, we can't let them just run back to Syria to execute everyone there instead.
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    Salmond to 'clarify' his currency position:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28827056

    Why didn't he clarify his position today to the callers ? Why does it have wait until the second debate?
    Bluff, bluster and bs.

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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I still don't really understand what "intervention" is supposed to achieve. Surely any air strikes are going to kill many civilians aren't they? Just like with Syria last year, it seems utterly bizarre to me the idea that we protect people who are at risk of being slaughtered by....slaughtering them ourselves.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Morris_Dancer
    Like Guantánamo Bay?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Guilty until proven innocent?

    In this case, absolutely. It should be up to you to prove you were not involved in terrorist activities in these countries - or you stay there.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2014
    New #GE2015 forecasting model:

    http://electionforecast.co.uk/

    Current prediction, seats:

    Lab 305
    Con 287
    LD 27
    UKIP 0

    Votes:

    Con 33.0%
    Lab 31.9%
    LD 15.1%
    UKIP 10.3%
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Mr. Smarmeron, no. Men were taken from places such as Afghanistan to Guantanamo Bay. We'd be detaining those actively seeking to return from Syria/Iraq and perhaps neighbouring countries.

    You also failed to answer my question. Would you just let in potentially hundreds of ISIS fighters to the UK?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Like Guantánamo Bay?

    No. because these people would be free to live in the country they traveled to.

    If a few innocent people are caught up in all this, so f8cking what if it means protecting our citizens and deterring hot blooded young gentlemen from doing the same.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Morris_Dancer
    Are you giving me a choice between protecting our "values" or going "overboard" on a putative threat?
    Remember, if we are going to be attacked, it will most probably be done by a "clean skin".
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Would you just let in potentially hundreds of ISIS fighters to the UK?

    Some people are quite happy to put the ordinary person's neck on the block to safeguard the human rights of a tiny handful of innocent people.

    They quite like a few beheaded white people, the more middle class the better. The hard left and the jihadists have a common purpose.

    The evisceration of middle class white people.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Mr. Smarmeron, you're right clean skins are dangerous, you're wrong to totally fail to answer my question.

    Would you just let them in? What would you do?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Are you giving me a choice between protecting our "values" or going "overboard" on a putative threat?

    That is the choice. We either let 100s of IS fighters back in, or we stop them. There is no other choice.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,004
    taffys said:

    Like Guantánamo Bay?

    No. because these people would be free to live in the country they traveled to.

    If a few innocent people are caught up in all this, so f8cking what if it means protecting our citizens and deterring hot blooded young gentlemen from doing the same.

    What if they travel to an independent Scotland?
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @taffys
    The "Right wing" always make a great play on the rights of individuals as they take those rights away. It is one of the flaws in our system. and used by both sides.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    What if they travel to an independent Scotland?

    It will be up to an independent Scotland whether they give shelter to these people or not.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    AndyJS said:

    New #GE2015 forecasting model:

    http://electionforecast.co.uk/

    Current prediction, seats:

    Lab 305
    Con 287
    LD 27
    UKIP 0

    Votes:

    Con 33.0%
    Lab 31.9%
    LD 15.1%
    UKIP 10.3%

    Another load of poppycock! If the L/Dems get more votes than UKIP I'll eat my moth-eaten fedora, hiding somewhere in the attic.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2014
    MikeK said:

    AndyJS said:

    New #GE2015 forecasting model:

    http://electionforecast.co.uk/

    Current prediction, seats:

    Lab 305
    Con 287
    LD 27
    UKIP 0

    Votes:

    Con 33.0%
    Lab 31.9%
    LD 15.1%
    UKIP 10.3%

    Another load of poppycock! If the L/Dems get more votes than UKIP I'll eat my moth-eaten fedora, hiding somewhere in the attic.
    I agree about that, but their forecasts for the two main parties - in terms of both votes and seats - look very good IMO. Tories winning popular vote with just under a third of the vote, and Labour winning most seats but well short of a majority.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997

    Salmond to 'clarify' his currency position:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28827056

    Darling unable to "clarify" his position re Scotland being able to be independent or what "Extra Powers " we will see if vote was NO.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997

    taffys said:

    Like Guantánamo Bay?

    No. because these people would be free to live in the country they traveled to.

    If a few innocent people are caught up in all this, so f8cking what if it means protecting our citizens and deterring hot blooded young gentlemen from doing the same.

    What if they travel to an independent Scotland?
    Any trouble and we will kick the crap out of them
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,004
    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    I still don't really understand what "intervention" is supposed to achieve. Surely any air strikes are going to kill many civilians aren't they? Just like with Syria last year, it seems utterly bizarre to me the idea that we protect people who are at risk of being slaughtered by....slaughtering them ourselves.

    Drones can take out individual pick-up trucks - as used by ISIS. Surveillance satellites are now so good they can identify columns of armed men.

    A convoy of armed guys in black travelling across the desert in pick-ups should therefore be wiped out with drones, as they are ISIS.

    Luckily for us, this is not jungly, humid Vietnam. It is a desert with a clear blue sky. And to get from village to village and town to town, doing their genocidal thang, ISIS have to cross the desert. That's when you hit them.

    They will probably have a few innocent human hostages, who will die. For that we must prepare ourselves. But the alternative is letting ISIS kill thousands.

    Genuine question. Can we differentiate between trucks full IS fighters and trucks full of prisoners heading for slave markets?

    Where, too, are these women and children being sold?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IMO Obama ought to forfeit his Peace Prize solely on the strength of his recent pronouncement that the Yazadi's were safe being swiftly followed by the butchering of at least 382 of them.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    That is the worst Indian side I have ever seen. The way they surrendered was actually pretty disgraceful. No fight, no nothing.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    taffys said:

    maybe we could all wreck a supermarket, it seems to be the current thinking for Gaza

    One British person has already been beheaded, how long until the next one??

    Meanwhile, the silence from UKIP is almost overwhelming. Nothing on this topic. Nothing on Islamification. Nothing on Gaza. Nothing on Iraq. Nothing on any of this.

    I'm sure MikeK will be along soon tell you why it's all Cameron's fault.
    No, but I will tell Taffy that UKIP twitter is full of it, and many kippers have spoken of it to the press. The fact that the MSM will not advertise our views unless it's to give a negative slant is not our fault.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    That is the worst Indian side I have ever seen. The way they surrendered was actually pretty disgraceful. No fight, no nothing.

    Did they actually play that well at Lords? Or was it just a poor performance by England? (I missed it because I was out of the country and got back too late for the Channel Five iPlayer).
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    It is one of the flaws in our system. and used by both sides.

    Well, it sounds to me that you are in favour of keeping the law as it is and allowing people who may have murdered, beheaded, raped and crucified innocent civilians back in to live among us unchecked and unpunished.

    I'm sure you won't be alone. Many people will undoubtedly think that is a price worth paying to retain their 'liberties'.

    I don't. I think we will sacrifice far more in the long term by letting them back in.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    taffys said:


    The first duty of any government is the law and order and the safety of its people. The very first. I don;t know what it would take to stop these people coming back, I really don't.

    But the government should do whatever it takes. That is its primary duty.

    I'm sure you don't mean that. If you did, what would be the justification for stopping at people who are suspected of fighting in a foreign war? This leaves all kinds of other people who could potentially threaten the law and order and safety of its people still at large, including millions who are of the same gender and age as likely terrorists and who haven't been proven not to be planning acts of terrorism.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    AndyJS said:

    That is the worst Indian side I have ever seen. The way they surrendered was actually pretty disgraceful. No fight, no nothing.

    Did they actually play that well at Lords? Or was it just a poor performance by England? (I missed it because I was out of the country and got back too late for the Channel Five iPlayer).
    No, England threw away a winning position by hooking themselves out. England could, and should, have won all five tests, they were woeful in the first two however.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    I didn't say they should be unchecked or unpunished, but if you end up with another nonsense like Guantánamo Bay, you make a mockery of our supposedly "better system"
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997

    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    I still don't really understand what "intervention" is supposed to achieve. Surely any air strikes are going to kill many civilians aren't they? Just like with Syria last year, it seems utterly bizarre to me the idea that we protect people who are at risk of being slaughtered by....slaughtering them ourselves.

    Drones can take out individual pick-up trucks - as used by ISIS. Surveillance satellites are now so good they can identify columns of armed men.

    A convoy of armed guys in black travelling across the desert in pick-ups should therefore be wiped out with drones, as they are ISIS.

    Luckily for us, this is not jungly, humid Vietnam. It is a desert with a clear blue sky. And to get from village to village and town to town, doing their genocidal thang, ISIS have to cross the desert. That's when you hit them.

    They will probably have a few innocent human hostages, who will die. For that we must prepare ourselves. But the alternative is letting ISIS kill thousands.

    Genuine question. Can we differentiate between trucks full IS fighters and trucks full of prisoners heading for slave markets?

    Where, too, are these women and children being sold?
    who is doing the buying
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,995
    There are two issues with ISIS.

    One is the sickening and barbaric killing of innocents. But this has been going on all over the world from Gaza to North Korea, from Syria to Mali. We need to recognise that we are impotent. All we can do is issue stern statements, give to charities and wring our hands. To think we can intervene militarily and make a material positive difference is delusion.

    The other is the threat to the UK of homecoming ISIS fighters. Here we need to get a grip and stop overreacting. Of course we need to identify and monitor them. But if they try to take over Birmingham I'm sure we can stop them.

    Keep calm and carry on.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The fact that the MSM will not advertise our views unless it's to give a negative slant is not our fault.

    I'm sure the supporters are on fire, but the leadership is saying nothing. Zip. Nada. There is no policy on this. What would UKIP actually DO to counter the islamist threat?

    Which is interesting, to say the least.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,004
    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    I still don't really understand what "intervention" is supposed to achieve. Surely any air strikes are going to kill many civilians aren't they? Just like with Syria last year, it seems utterly bizarre to me the idea that we protect people who are at risk of being slaughtered by....slaughtering them ourselves.

    Drones can take out individual pick-up trucks - as used by ISIS. Surveillance satellites are now so good they can identify columns of armed men.

    A convoy of armed guys in black travelling across the desert in pick-ups should therefore be wiped out with drones, as they are ISIS.

    Luckily for us, this is not jungly, humid Vietnam. It is a desert with a clear blue sky. And to get from village to village and town to town, doing their genocidal thang, ISIS have to cross the desert. That's when you hit them.

    They will probably have a few innocent human hostages, who will die. For that we must prepare ourselves. But the alternative is letting ISIS kill thousands.

    Genuine question. Can we differentiate between trucks full IS fighters and trucks full of prisoners heading for slave markets?

    Where, too, are these women and children being sold?
    who is doing the buying
    Indeed. They can't all be being sold in IS controlled areas.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SeanT
    We are impotent Sean, the lesson from all that fighting over centuries is that you can't impose your will on other people without constant resort to force.
    By all means aid them, but in the end it will be they that have to choose.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited August 2014
    ''I'm sure you don't mean that. If you did, what would be the justification for stopping at people who are suspected of fighting in a foreign war? ''

    There would be no justification for stopping anybody else, I agree with you wholeheartedly.

    If you don't think its possible to have an arrangement which banned jihadists from returning whilst at the same time preserving the right of everybody else to come and go, fine.

    But you have to admit that if we keep the current system, we are putting our own citizens in harms way to preserve their 'liberties' and big time.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Smarmeron said:

    @Morris_Dancer
    I agree, but there is a difference between "prepared" and "paranoid"

    Smarmeron said:

    @Morris_Dancer
    I agree, but there is a difference between "prepared" and "paranoid"

    Yes but there is more than a trace of paranoia form the extreme right, suddenly all muslims are members of ISIS and the country is being flooded with muslims.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    I still don't really understand what "intervention" is supposed to achieve. Surely any air strikes are going to kill many civilians aren't they? Just like with Syria last year, it seems utterly bizarre to me the idea that we protect people who are at risk of being slaughtered by....slaughtering them ourselves.

    Drones can take out individual pick-up trucks - as used by ISIS. Surveillance satellites are now so good they can identify columns of armed men.

    A convoy of armed guys in black travelling across the desert in pick-ups should therefore be wiped out with drones, as they are ISIS.

    Luckily for us, this is not jungly, humid Vietnam. It is a desert with a clear blue sky. And to get from village to village and town to town, doing their genocidal thang, ISIS have to cross the desert. That's when you hit them.

    They will probably have a few innocent human hostages, who will die. For that we must prepare ourselves. But the alternative is letting ISIS kill thousands.

    I freely admit I don't really know anything about the logistics of how any intervention would work, and I hope you're right. If there is some way of eradicating ISIS/ISIL with (relatively) minimal civilian casualties then I'd be all for it, but pessimistically I can't help but fear it would spiral into a massive offensive with a huge civilian death toll.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @taffys
    What are the odds of being killed by an Islamic terrorist in the UK?
    You give up your rights for those small odds? Then as you deserve what you get, which is an erosion of freedom every time the media brings out a new danger.
    It is what politicians do
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    SeanT said:

    Taffys is right. We cannot allow automatic re-entry to the UK for people who have traveled to Iraq or Syria in, say, the last two years.

    Anyone who tries should be detained and questioned, for weeks if necessary, until we are sure they are safe. We should be particularly suspicious of young Muslim males - and let fatuous accusations of "racial profiling" be damned.

    Anything else would be a failure to protect the British people. That's all there is to it.



    Aren't they effectively mercenaries? In which case the problem might be that we didn't sign up to UN attempts to ban mercenaries -- and arguably Britain and America both make great use of, erm, private security companies and military advisers in war zones.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    taffys said:

    I'm sure you don't mean that. If you did, what would be the justification for stopping at people who are suspected of fighting in a foreign war?

    There would be no justification for stopping anybody else, I agree with you wholeheartedly.

    If you don't think its possible to have an arrangement which banned jihadists from returning whilst at the same time preserving the right of everybody else to come and go, fine.

    You suggested a specific principle, which was:
    taffys said:

    "The first duty of any government is the law and order and the safety of its people. The very first... But the government should do whatever it takes. That is its primary duty."

    Britain has suffered from terrorism in the past without people coming back from fighting foreign wars, so just stopping them couldn't possibly cover doing whatever it takes.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Mr. L, no.

    They're religious zealots. That's about as far from mercenary as you can get.

    Mr. Smarmeron, so you'd let them back in?

    Mr. Tokyo, by itself such a step wouldn't end Islamic extremism in the UK (alas), but it would help stop it growing very significantly and very rapidly.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Apparently the Kurds have retaken part of the dam:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28825029
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Morris_Dancer
    If there was no evidence that would stand up then yes.
    Keeping an eye on them might reveal those already here that we don't know about, who are far more dangerous.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,995
    Smarmeron said:

    @taffys
    What are the odds of being killed by an Islamic terrorist in the UK?
    You give up your rights for those small odds? Then as you deserve what you get, which is an erosion of freedom every time the media brings out a new danger.
    It is what politicians do

    I agree completely. Annual deaths in the UK from falling from stairs or steps - about 600. Annual deaths in the UK from accidental poisoning - about 1500. Annual deaths in the UK from terrorism - you tell me.

    It suits politicians to hype up this sort of danger. It lets them justify the dismantling of our rights as citizens in order to "protect" us.

    Don't fall for the hysteria. Keep calm and carry on.
This discussion has been closed.