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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PaddyPower offering betting market on whether Cameron will

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  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    'Bloody hell - Survation have UKIP on 22% and on 30% for European election voting intention!' markferguson
  • More seriously on the same point the Cleggasm provided the Libdems with their largest vote total since 1987 and had they avoided the lure of power (particularly in coalition with the Tories) .

    Except that there wouldn't be an election in 2015.
    Wouldn't there? In such a scenario granted there would be no certainty if there was an election or not but 2015 would still have been a possibility. However, let me satisfy your desire for accuracy.

    could have put them in an even stronger position in future general elections

    Better?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    tim said:

    Carola said:

    'Survation: Conservative: 24% (-5 on May 1) Labour: 35% (-1) Liberal Democrat: 11% (-1) UKIP: 22% (+6). Ouch!' chappers

    Lynton Crosby + George Osborne + David Cameron, take a bow.

    Lab Maj 100
    Proper cuts ahoy!

    Cameron needs to spite his MP's, call an election and let the 2 Ed's inflict the necessary pain.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,441
    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    Carola said:

    'Survation: Conservative: 24% (-5 on May 1) Labour: 35% (-1) Liberal Democrat: 11% (-1) UKIP: 22% (+6). Ouch!' chappers

    Are Survation any good?

    (Actually, as a general comment - sure it's been posted before - but could someone do a thread on which pollsters are best for which measure)
    Looks like David Cameron is starring in Honey I shrunk the party.

    It could be the first times Conservatives have to take refuge in the Liberals.
    I think OGH is going to win his bet.

    The tragedy being this is all self inflicted, Cameron blew his political capital on gimmicks and now is finding the cupboard's looking a bit bare.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    edited May 2013
    JackW said:

    Oh gawd, it's only Survation.

    Still, it'll keep the Kippers higher than a George Michael party .... both of which are fun to behold.

    Yes it is... but the more news that comes out making UKIP look 'worth' voting for the bigger the snowball could get.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Just for fun, but the Survation poll in electoral calculus gives a Labour majority of >100 and UKIP take one seat in Cornwall. You have to laugh at the silliness of it.

    @Charles - My ranking of current opinion pollsters would be ICM > MORI > YouGov > The Rest of the Online Hordes. It's a shame we only have two regular phone pollsters left.

    that's what I though - but given the lack of a CtV filter, am not sure I'd give YouGov the #3 slot. Think it 2 + the rest.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Am I reading that survation poll correctly that UKIP now outpoll the Lib Dems in Scotland?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Hmm. Might be time to dust off the sadly-neglected toaster.
  • Carola said:

    JackW said:

    Oh gawd, it's only Survation.

    Still, it'll keep the Kippers higher than a George Michael party .... both of which are fun to behold.

    Yes it is... but the more news that comes out making UKIP 'worth' voting for the bigger the snowball could get.
    Snowballs aren't very helpful in summer.

    Perhaps you meant the drink?

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Neil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The real problems in society are when we don't have stable loving families (e.g. those poor abused children in care and really sold / trafficked into sex slavery) not a gay couple wanting a wedding and to be treated like everyone else.

    And who want to be able to provide a stable loving home to those children unfortunate enough not to have one. If Gerald Howarth had spent the weekend with the family I stayed with he might have given a very different speech today.
    Agree completely. Given everything we know about the disastrous life chances of children in care, we should put them with whatever loving families are available as soon as possible to give those children a chance. And if gay parents are willing and able to look after them. why let distaste about their sexual preferences stand in the way?

    It's interesting that it's those Tory MPs who have actual experience who are the most thoughtful on this e.g. Maude changing his mind following his brother's experience etc. It's as if the Howarths of this world can't see past peoples' sexual preferences to the whole person and to their desire to live a normal happy life just like the rest of us. Why is this so hard?
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Carola said:

    JackW said:

    Oh gawd, it's only Survation.

    Still, it'll keep the Kippers higher than a George Michael party .... both of which are fun to behold.

    Yes it is... but the more news that comes out making UKIP 'worth' voting for the bigger the snowball could get.
    Snowballs aren't very helpful in summer.

    Perhaps you meant the drink?

    What 'summer'?

  • Without the 'Refused/ Don't Know' weighting the Survation figures are:

    Lab 35.3%
    Con 23.4%
    UKIP 22.9%
    LD 10.2%
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    SeanT said:


    Remember, you read it on pb first. Though not from tim or OGH.

    Let's see if the Tory party manages to limp on past 2015 without doing a deal with UKIP.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649

    "If it is any help I didn't find, during my quite extensive time in Nihon (mid-late 90's, to be fair but I haven't heard much to the contrary since) the Japanese also - in general, I'm not talking about journalists on the Economist - struggled to distinguish between the Irish and the Brits. Really, from their point of view, there is not much difference."

    Well if they can't even distinguish between the Irish and the English then it's a failure of the Japanese education system, and not something that's relevant to this debate.

    "If it is any help I didn't find, during my quite extensive time in Nihon (mid-late 90's, to be fair but I haven't heard much to the contrary since) the Japanese also - in general, I'm not talking about journalists on the Economist - struggled to distinguish between the Irish and the Brits. Really, from their point of view, there is not much difference."

    Well if they can't even distinguish between the Irish and the English then it's a failure of the Japanese education system, and not something that's relevant to this debate.

    "If it is any help I didn't find, during my quite extensive time in Nihon (mid-late 90's, to be fair but I haven't heard much to the contrary since) the Japanese also - in general, I'm not talking about journalists on the Economist - struggled to distinguish between the Irish and the Brits. Really, from their point of view, there is not much difference."

    Well if they can't even distinguish between the Irish and the English then it's a failure of the Japanese education system, and not something that's relevant to this debate.

    "If it is any help I didn't find, during my quite extensive time in Nihon (mid-late 90's, to be fair but I haven't heard much to the contrary since) the Japanese also - in general, I'm not talking about journalists on the Economist - struggled to distinguish between the Irish and the Brits. Really, from their point of view, there is not much difference."

    Well if they can't even distinguish between the Irish and the English then it's a failure of the Japanese education system, and not something that's relevant to this debate.

    Without Googling - I trust you - rattle off the names of the four main islands of the Japanese home archipeligo.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Carola said:

    JackW said:

    Oh gawd, it's only Survation.

    Still, it'll keep the Kippers higher than a George Michael party .... both of which are fun to behold.

    Yes it is... but the more news that comes out making UKIP look 'worth' voting for the bigger the snowball could get.
    Any better, and they can have my vote.

    Be fun to see what happens if they get into power.
  • SeanT said:



    Remember, you read it on pb first. Though not from tim or OGH.

    We'll be reading it in a Telegraph blog next.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    New thread.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    SeanT said:

    F*ck me.

    If these polls continue, the only way the Tories can survive is if they do a deal with UKIP. And that can only happen without Cameron. His position is now extremely precarious.

    Of course: SOME OF US HAVE BEEN PREDICTING THIS FOR YEARS.

    UKIP always had potential, and in the last decade an enormous space has opened up - for a populist rightwing non-racist party to flourish, especially with a Tory party led by effete liberal poshos.

    Remember, you read it on pb first. Though not from tim or OGH.

    Doing a deal with UKIP is not the answer. People like me who find UKIP and the sorts of Tories we've seen on our TV screens for the last few weeks repellent - and loathe Labour for what it has done to the country and its statist and authoritarian tendencies - are even less likely to vote Tory if they turn into UKIP.

    Disliking gays and foreigners and harking back to some imagined and glorious past is an electoral cul de sac. Thatcher may have shown respect for her activists but she was a radical and stood up to vested interests. UKIP want to go back to their comfort blanket. How are they going to deal with Britain as it is not as they would like it to be?

    That's a question to which none of the parties has an answer, frankly.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Someone got lost in the No lobby....
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    Division on allowing registrars to chose who they marry.

    Yes 150
    NO 340

    Lots of abstentions
  • Also there is this question (q11):

    In 2014 there will be elections to the European Parliament, by a form of proportional representation If this election was to take place tomorrow instead, how do you think you would be most likely to vote in a European Election (figures normalised to exclude Don't Knows, WNV/ Refused:

    Con 20.03%
    Lab 30.62%
    LD 8.40%
    UKIP 29.97%
    Green 5.56%
    SNP 2.58%
    BNP 1.81%
    PC 0.78%
    Other 0.26%

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Carola said:

    'New @Survation poll has the Tories down 5% to 24%, UKIP up 6% to 22%. Labour on 35% and LibDems on 11%. Crazy times.' tim mont

    Was the survey pre or post SE ? [ swivel-eyed]
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Carola said:

    'Survation: Conservative: 24% (-5 on May 1) Labour: 35% (-1) Liberal Democrat: 11% (-1) UKIP: 22% (+6). Ouch!' chappers

    Must give a humungous Labour majority. FPTP, you gotta love it !!
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Socrates -

    "(4) Like I said, I really can't wait until 2014."

    On that we agree, although you might be less thrilled to hear that the main thing I'm looking forward to is the look on your face.

    The man who thinks that Scots will prove themselves to be "loyal, patriotic Brits"?

    Chortle.
This discussion has been closed.