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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation poll in 13 key CON held marginals finds CON to LA
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation poll in 13 key CON held marginals finds CON to LAB swing of 9%
Many of the seats in the poll were included within the recent phases of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals polling though his latest numbers suggest a move about one half of what Survation has found.
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My film has finished, and I don't have much more to add - so i'll just fall back on a recent PB cliché -
Ed is crap is PM
Sorry.
Hopefully the morning people will be better.
National polling is pretty useless. UNS dosn't really exist. Who cares if the UKIP cut tory majorities in norfolk for example ?
What matters is seats, around 100 seats changed hands last time round, what happens in these is all that really matters. FPTP makes the election is 80% of the country meaningless, only the 20% of swing seats count, the more polling we have the better.
In fact, the election will be decided by around 100,000 people at most.
One organization helping to prop up Ed's position and the other happens to be a trade union.
If the national polling lead for Labour is 3 or 4 points & this marginal polls shows these results it could be very significant (although interested to know where Labour is underperforming with the national polling if it is doing this well in marginals). If, however, the national equivalent from this poll set shows, say, a 41% Labour share and a 31% Tory share, then I would be much more sceptical about whether it is worth anything
There are detailed issues about the poll but the fact it was sponsored by UNITE is not one of them. VI questions asked first in proper manner. You can't fault it. My quibbles are details on weightings.
Boris has worked out that the Tories are in trouble for GE2015 and the big picture from these numbers is that he's right.
Is your "Hmn" reserved for polling commissioned by trade unions? Or has it already been trotted out for the polling of marginals by Lord Ashcroft and for that by Survation commissioned by UKIP?
If this were an ICM poll I'd take it more seriously, next would be Populus and/or YouGov.
The question would then be why. If these seats had a larger Lib Dem share than most marginals then the collapse in Lib Dem support may be one reason. The UKIP number is also somewhat higher than we have been seeing with most pollsters recently. That has presumably impacted on the tory share. Are there are special factors in these marginals that have caused UKIP to out perform their national figures?
Without fuller information it is hard to judge properly but this poll would seem to be at least circumstantial evidence to support what Ashcroft has also been showing, namely that the Tories are doing slightly worse in the marginal seats where it will count.
Both Survation and Ashcroft poll did reasonably well at the Newark by-election
Marginals contain lots of the type of voter that has basically been battered by this Government. Public sector workers, the relatively low paid. Recent graduates struggling to get a decent job. They've seen that despite the rhetoric we've not all been in it together; and a Govt with a weak mandate has used the credit crunch as cover to drive forward radical agendas in the public sector, especially local government. That affect them directly.
Even the IMF is telling a deaf chancellor that basing his budgetary war entirely on cuts is ultimately societally nihilistic.
If ordinary hard working people are seeing themselves get scammed then it's no surprise they won't vote for the parties that they perceive as being resoonsible. That 's why the Tories are going to lose an election that they really shouldn't.
That's why OGH is wrong to question why people ask such questions and suggest its because they don't like the answer, its precisely because it was on behalf of UNITE that people question its impartiality.. and damned right they are to.
If OGH has got issues with the weightings I think one can dismiss this poll and move on.
Sir Humphrey Appleby says all that's needed..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA
In other news we finally see one genocide punished:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/international-tribunal-cambodia-jails-khmer-rouge-duo-life-034411718.html
While ISIS show they want a new year zero in the middle east. They are the Khymer Rouge with prayer mats. When they have control of Syria and Lebanon, they plan to move on Israel:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/wap/Item.aspx?type=0&item=182751
Didn't Survation do 2 polls at Newark and the first one was far from similar to the result. It was only the one which came out after Ashcroft's poll which showed a big Tory lead.
How solid this is I don't know. Central Office must hope, probably with limited reason that the advantage will dissipate in the run up to an election.
Of course in Barrow Labour has the MP although really the Tories should have taken it in 2010 if there had been better candidate selection. ( The Tories ran good local candidates in Barrow from 1997 to 2005 when there was no chance but then chose an offcumber for 2010 when the previous candidates would probably have won.)
I guess where there is a Tory MP, if he is any good then Labour won't be getting away with what they are doing in Barrow. Morecambe and Lunesdale will be one to watch. I don't have the same insider info there though.
People are reading too much into the Boris story. As with William Hague the time had come because of the internal Conservative Party candidate selection process. There is some evidence of the better candidates on the the approved lists such as they are holding back and so making it difficult the get the best candidates for those seats which we need to just hold or just take. After all, would you seek selection in say Bury before you had tried for Richmondshire ? You would be stuck and even if your chances of selection in Richmondshire would be very small there would always be the what if.
Let's see how many more older Labour and LibDem MPs announce their retirement over the remaining 5 months of this year, starting with the occupant of Edinburgh SW on 19th September.
Couldn't find the ISIS/Kurdish story on the BBC, but let's hope the Kurds give them a thrashing.
Perish the thought.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN that McARSE will be calling the result of the Scottish Referendum in the final McARSE projection to be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am on Tuesday 12th August.
................................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
McARSE - My Caledonian Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
The world awaits a statement.
My McARSE is highly efficient and doesn't require endless outpourings to solidify its final determination.
The initial indication is that the final projection will be "Mike Smithson Interesting"
But I am something of an old cynic.
Query: am I on the right website?
You are indeed on the right website, or at least one of the correct ones.
If you had suggested that bankers should be taken out and shot, you would hear howls of "disgusting" and "shame on you" though, so be careful.
It's available at all good apothecaries. I understand YES folk have been purchasing it in bulk !!
My principles sold for a £9.20 profit on 2 no spend required Morrisons vouchers.
Clearly I will not read the papers which are destined for the large black wheelie file minus vouchers.
Still I am ashamed and i may have now boosted circulation further with this post.
Ashamed and stupid. Bad start to the day.
But at least Pakistan scored more than 285, so profitable day so far although I fear reinvesting my profits on a Derbyshire victory later today may be less than wise.
Survation poll EICIPM
Why stop at Lee Rigby's killers? There are dozens, perhaps hundreds that deserve the maximum punishment? We abolished the death penalty, and reinstating it for individual cases runs contrary to our British values.
You should be shot for suggesting such a thing! ;-)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28686998
OT but continuing from the end of the last thread, I got this from my friend Steve in Erbil this morning. He was practicing his purple prose as a joke we have with each other whenever we are in foreign parts but his basic news is also of interest.
"There is an eerie, nervous silence on the Streets of Erbil today. This busy booming city of 3 million people lies quiet. the streets are deserted, the shopping malls echo with silence.
This is a city with the pall of fear, because ISIS were on their way here last night, coming up the largely undefended southern road. The people know what ISIS do, they know they slaughter Christians, execute non-believers, and are currently committing genocide on the Yazidi people, who are dying by the hundred, or maybe even by the thousand, nobody really knows, except perhaps the Yazidi themselves.
So the people are staying indoors, they know what will happen to them if ISIS do get here.
And the question must be asked : How did this happen? How did the Kurd's biggest city, and perhaps their future capital, find itself undefended and vulnerable.
The Kurdish forces, and the bulk of their heavy weapons, are off to the northwest. They are attacking Mosul : they have it surrounded, it's expected they will defeat ISIS and take back the city. Yesterday the Kurdish forces took back the town of Shangal.
The Kurdish forces, the Peshmerger, have taken the fight to ISIS. But in doing so they have left Erbil painfully exposed, and a group of ISIS militia have taken advantage of this mistake, and have moved on the city.
Let's be clear about one thing. They can not take the city, they can not occupy it. But they can cause death and mayhem before they are killed.
This is a suicide mission. And Erbil knows it."
Seems those Christians share a lot in common with the Kurds and Shia, and indeed several other races and religions.
Paul Francis (@PaulOnPolitics)
07/08/2014 08:43
Is @Nigel_Farage preparing to show his election hand over #Thanet South? kentonline.co.uk/thanet/news/uk…
Perhaps Lord Ashcroft should set up an armed wing?
Only works 91% of the time methinks
Sabine 20 from London is best bit so far
This is the modern day Tory party,led by useless Old Etonians,who cannot even stitch the unions up these days.
http://www.unitetheunion.org/news/tories-shoot-themselves-in-the-foot-with-trade-union-smears/
The only LAB vs CON marginal constituencies that you can compare that look like they have similar results (ashcroft in parenthesis) are:
Lancaster & Fleetwood LAB 43, CON 28, UKIP 14 ( LAB 41, CON 27, UKIP 18)
Thurrock LAB 33, UKIP 32, CON 30 (UKIP 36,LAB 30, CON 28)
The rest usually have Labour blasting ahead 20-25% at 50%, which is similar to 1997-2001 levels. Very unrealistic.
Dreading article on Theresa May
As the advert goes, I'm Loving It!
He would also win.....
1) There is no past vote recall, but the weightings reflect the demographic of the seats.
2) On a rough estimate, 200 people sampled per seat, so the MOE is around 6.6%, which is more than double the MOE of the Ashcroft marginal polls, which polls around 1,000 voters
3) In the Con/LD seats, there's a 4% swing from LD to Con - Which is interesting, which shows we should view Con/LD and LD/Con marginals differently, which should alarm the Lib Dems.
Boris v Chukka - A true case of the Blonde v the Bland
(http://www.brixtonbuzz.com/2014/08/boris-in-brixton-could-the-mayor-come-looking-for-a-south-london-seat-behave/)
Boris vs Harriet Harman would be great
It is going to rain cats and dogs the next few days, which isn't usual for Manchester, but my knowledge of the area, doesn't give me hope for a positive result
Are you mad ?
At least wait till its over evens.
He sounded out Uxbridge last week, and announced he was standing this week.
I would assume from those events, he is looking for something more on the safer side than a marginal held by Labour.
If a VI survey is not weighted for past VI, it will more than likely I think show a better result for Labour than if it was past VI weighted.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/1583485/Harriet-Harman-in-stab-vest-for-Peckham-walk.html
Also Yougov "Party political identification" and Populus Question " Q.4 Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in
May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say you have usually most closely
identified yourself with? "
are not 2010 VI.
I'll agree with you on Labour though. But I think that leads to the same result that this poll would show less of a swing if it was weighted for 2010 "remembered VI".
Secondly, we have reason to believe that there is a substantial degree of false recall going on in these telephone polls when people are asked who they voted for in the last election. In most constituencies we have polled over the last year, the proportion of people saying they voted UKIP in 2010 was higher than the actual recorded percentage from the last election.
I cannot think of a plausible reason why, after having corrected for age, gender and ward, we would actually have over-sampled past UKIP voters so significantly and so consistently.
Instead it seems far more likely that these additional “past UKIP” voters, virtually all of whom say they are currently planning to vote UKIP, are either consciously or subconsciously altering their response to make their views sound more consistent, or else are confusing the 2010 general election with a different election, perhaps the last local elections, in which they did actually vote UKIP (in South Thanet for instance UKIP came top in the local elections 2013).
To consistently depress the UKIP vote by applying a downweighting to these voters without a plausible hypothesis for why they are being “over-sampled” would seem to be a major mistake.
http://survation.com/a-note-on-methodology-for-our-constituency-phone-polls/
That said, you can't really criticise the poll on the basis of who paid for it (for that matter, Lord Ashcroft remains a Tory) or pick out selected seats as more realistic - there's a big MOE in each seat but the overall result needs to be looked at in its own terms. I'd g?uess that one factor of the seats selected may be that they have high LD votes to squeeze
For instance we had 17% LDs last time (and 39-38% for Con and Lab); this time they've not even selected a candidate yet, and are doing zero campaigning apart from some councillor Focus letters. Other things being equal, I need to get 0.7% of that to win. If in fact I got 12% of it then yes, I'd be on 50%. A more plausible current split IMO would be Lab 9 LD 4 Con 3 Green 1, which would move the figures to Con 42, Lab 47, before taking account of any UKIP impact or other factors.
Play unlikely before 11:15am
It's well known that Labour voters are lazy as sin so its justified to downweight them a bit imo.