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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB July Polling Average: Gravity finally catches up with UKIP
So perhaps UKIP does need the oxygen of publicity after all. After recording a record score in June, Farage’s party is the biggest loser in July; indeed, the only loser. That June figure surprised many who thought that the absence from the papers and TV screens of what’s still in many ways a minor party would inevitably lead to a drop in vote share. It didn’t then but two months after the European…
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PB before rumpy pumpy .....
That's duty for you ....
Must be mad .....
And I am sure Mrs Herdson entered Coalition with David with her eyes open. There will be a quid pro quo, much as Mrs JackW extracts Bond St shopping excursions!
http://order-order.com/2014/08/01/eds-cousin-miliband-familys-comedy-genius/
I haven't seen jokes like that for a while, but Dr Keen knows how to tell 'em. I couldn't help laughing.
I do hope that the twitterarti are not too hard on him, but he seems robust enough judging by his own remarks in the comments, presuming they are genuine.
Incidentally it looks a good range of owls on the Miliband staircase, not photoshopped in either.
Message to OGH: You won't be burying UKIP any time soon, despite trying very hard.
On general point Ukip is going to find it much harder getting public attention. Don't blame me
It's also not been the EUs worst month. In agreeing sanctions on Russia, they've come across as more productive than the UN where squabbling superpowers lead to total inertia. Maybe UKiP should suggest we withdraw from the UN and see how that goes?
You think I have an option on Mrs JackW's trips ....
She knows where the bodies are buried !!
It is hard to see why women want so many shoes, when for the same money one could be barefoot in a Ferrari...
The Nats are leaving the sinking ship.
Desperate, desperate stuff
How appropriate, two loons talking tripe
We'll have to enjoy you while you last. In a few short weeks you'll disappear from PB threads. Forever.
Malc will come back for a bit of pro bono posting.
Although in the day it was Mrs JackW's barefoot in a classic Maserati convertible.
Usually, when the start of the month coincides with a weekend, I'll write two pieces, the polling average and a general interest one. I'm afraid that this time you'll have to make do with just the one: I haven't been much in touch with events this last week (didn't log on once and now have 219 e-mails!), and wouldn't have had time to write them if I had.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/01/alex-salmond-happiness-coach-tv-debate-alistair-darling-scottish-independence
Dodging ferrets, whippets and clogs on cliff edge but with a promise of dysentery in the future in India.
Welcome back old friend.
Of course, Jack, we don't know where the Herdsons did their courting. We'll be straying back towards the Bernard Wossname jokes if we're not careful...
The East Coast of Yorkshire has some stunning places.
I prefer Robin Hoods Bay in the winter than the busy summer months.
Revelant to a debate we had on here recently about (tory!!) plans to give those nice people at HMRC the power to plunder our accounts.
Many of the victims were poor pensioners.
Except, of course, from socialists...
It will likely be a battle between solicitor (she works for Hill Dickinson LLP) Rebecca Long-Baily who was raised in Cheshire and local Cllr Sue Pugh.
http://dizzythinks.net/ed_miliband-its-not-your-money.html
The dangers for UKIP as the election nears are that (1) they get written out of the media narrative as conditioning and laziness causes commentators and reporters to revert to the familiar three-party structure they know and are comfortable with, and (2) that the voters turn away from them as the issue of who governs increases in saliency. Both dangers can be countered but they remain very real.
I'd vote for him. The uncle, obviously, not Ed.
Make of that what you will
To be fair, Guido has plenty of goes at certain tories, too. Yeo/Ruffley to name but two.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/01/tory-bash-city-billionaires-ministers-bubbly-banned
Aren't the BBC also after this power too?
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel · 11m
As the YI Conference in Birmingham starts today, note that YI membership has risen 40% since March, and now stands at over 2,600. #YIConf14
We also have good voting percentages in the locals, though certain areas should get their act together (re merthyr tydfil):
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel · 2h
At real polls - at elections - #UKIP consistently outperforms opinion polls.
22% in contests 24 July (av.)
22% in contests on 31 July (av.)
.... and as you say this is the quiet season.
The media may try to dismiss UKIP as irrelevant, the Lab/Lib/ Cons will do their best to pretend UKIP doesn't exist: UKIP will prove them and you wrong.
How's married life treating you? I wish you and your spouse well.
Just a bit over enthusiastic, and my ambitions for UKIP are still sky high. Hold on to your seat Mark, the times they are a changing.
By the way, is it true that Cameron wants to start a war with Russia because he's bored with the summer hols?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28617909
Is that true? Looks like an absolutely enormous shell, and way bigger than the pictures relating to Israelis loading shells.
However, what does match, the head of a M302 long range missile, which the Palestinians have.
http://www.breakingisraelnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/iran-missile.png
http://m.heraldsun.com.au/sport/the-score-manchester-city-take-twitter-followers-on-a-spiritual-journey-plus-melky-cabrera-goes-bang/story-fni2u98u-1227006219702?nk=881019fb7e08fc20117b6ce5aada4155
Got my first new glasses for several years. Taking some getting used to.
Glad not to be Russia again in Diplomacy. Not that I dislike Russia, but it's nice to have a change.
Must be difficult though Mike, being the object of the ultimate paradox. The better UKIP does, the further away its objective.
A strong showing next year would be bitter sweet, even for you.
Bigger than I remember them.
Cameron's speech to the NATO conference yesterday made me smile. There he was telling everyone that they must spend more on defence and improve capabilities. Coming from a man who is responsible for massive cuts in our own defence budget and who has removed great chunks of our own capabilities it showed a level of bare-faced cheek that really is quite remarkable.
I wonder if any of the delegates that had to sit through his lecturing asked him about his own governments refusal this very week to guarantee that it would meet the spending targets he was demanding of them.
Mr. Llama, I must concur on Defence.
Says the man who chalked up a solo win on his second game. Sheeeesh.
A far cry from rolling back the frontiers of the state under Maggie.
The view of most NATO members seems to be that the USA will always do their fighting for them.
Janet Daley suggested the Treasury had slipped it in while George Osborne was distracted. He has form for this. Damian McBride reported that much of Osborne's omnishambles budget consisted of Treasury wishlist items that Gordon Brown had annually rejected.
"items that Gordon Brown had annually rejected. "
Ah yes, that great defender of individual liberty and protecter of the private citizen's purse and pension. I remember the man well.
what a plonker, you a stand up at the fringe.
Wish I still was, you would be such an easy target for jokes!
Ah yes, that great defender of individual liberty and protecter of the private citizen's purse and pension. I remember the man well.
To be fair, it does suggest that if he hadn’t been paying attention things could have been (even?) worse!
As I said, the Tories have been smart to outsource to Guido. It means they do not control the output, but it does make it more likely to be picked up - a few negative stories are worth the endless stream of anti-Labour, EdM and LD stuff that Guido runs. It was not a smart move to have Staines attend an official function though.
Looks like it's all going down the tube's for the SNP?
I think I might give PB and other news blogs a miss on the day after the referendum - They'll be some VERY grumpy Nat's around I fear.
I suspect he was there to gather stories, but to also to be won over to the blue rather than purple side of the border. It is not good to collect too many enemies when planning a campaign.
Malta does indeed have interesting history. Random fact: Lascaris is the name of the one of the gods in my work-in-progress, and the Knights Lascarian play a role (particularly early on).
I think I might give PB and other news blogs a miss on the day after the referendum - They'll be some VERY grumpy Nat's around I fear.
As someone posted (more or less) the other day, in the event of a solid NO it will not be difficult to differentiate between malcolmg and a ray of sunshine.
Golly, the noon-day gun! In Malta, an independent country. What was that about British influence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcBr3rosvNQ