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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chances of a LAB majority have dropped by 10% since the budget according to Betfair punters

Exactly 8 months today on April 1st 2015 the formal general election campaign will begin and my intention at the start of every month is to monitor betting prices on the Betfair exchange to see how the mood is changing.

Read the full story here

JohnLoony

The small vestry window looked out on the south side of the church, and Lawson stared blankly into the graveyard where the grey, weathered tombstones tilted at their varied angles from the vertical, their crumbling legends long since overgrown with moss or smoothed away by centuries of wind and rain

Ninth!

RobD

Argh, curse of the new thread. FPT:

@Charles -- If the GOP manage to win TX and CA, surely their POTUS candidate for the WH would be a shoe-in?

hm, maybe too heavy on the acronyms

HYUFD said:

Union supporters outside Scotland may want to sign BT's new online message board showing support for the Union

https://www.letsstaytogether.org.uk/

Thanks for this, will be sure to share it.

John-You need some real men on that list ;-)

edmundintokyo

Con Maj price seems like crazypants, a chunk of that should be somewhere else. Not sure if it should be NOM or Lab Maj or both.

peter_from_putney

***** Betting Post *****

http://travel.aol.co.uk/2014/07/31/uk-weather-heatwave-august-hottest-on-record/

Wm. Hill are currently offering 4/1 against UK summer temperature reaching 100 degrees Fahrenheit.

DYOR

JackW

It seems to me that individuals with a financial interest in the matter tend to the view that :

Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister

TGOHF

"But be warned. In 2010 the betting markets overall overstated the Tories and LDs and seriously understated Labour. That might be happening again."

Hmm - markets overstated the opposition ?

JackW

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown

99 hours 99 seconds

RobD

JackW said:

It seems to me that individuals with a financial interest in the matter tend to the view that :

Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister

Which will it be, EMWNBPM or EMICIPM? :')

Easterross

Morning all and I wonder how long it will take the betting public to put a Tory majority ahead of a Labour one in the odds? Dr Fisher's analysis and Populus ahead today isn't it?

[Deleted User]

RobD said:

JackW said:

It seems to me that individuals with a financial interest in the matter tend to the view that :

Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister

Which will it be, EMWNBPM or EMICIPM? :')

I prefer EMHNBPE

(Ed Miliband has not been punched enough)

[Deleted User]

I wonder what change to polls and betting the Great George Osborne Spring 2015 Election Bonanza Budget will deliver. We all know it's coming.

peter_from_putney

Easterross said:

Morning all and I wonder how long it will take the betting public to put a Tory majority ahead of a Labour one in the odds? Dr Fisher's analysis and Populus ahead today isn't it?

Don't expect any surprises from Stephen Fisher's GE projection this week, especially with YouGov showing Labour as being 4% ahead last night.

TGOHF

Easterross said:

Morning all and I wonder how long it will take the betting public to put a Tory majority ahead of a Labour one in the odds? Dr Fisher's analysis and Populus ahead today isn't it?

Nom will be shortest odds of the three all the way until the election.

foxinsoxuk

Patrick said:

RobD said:

JackW said:

It seems to me that individuals with a financial interest in the matter tend to the view that :

Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister

Which will it be, EMWNBPM or EMICIPM? :')

I prefer EMHNBPE

(Ed Miliband has not been punched enough)

I expect you mean metaphorical rather than literal punching, but even this does not always work as expected. Ed may perform surprisingly well in the debates, which may allow him to develop ideas and explanations in a way that sound-bite campaigning does not. Cameron may show his Flashman style in the same format. A bullying Cameron may cause a sympathy vote for Ed, particularly in women voters who currently are more undecided than males.

I think the polls have narrowed a little in the last year. Ed has a 3% lead at present, but even trailing by a similar number may well make him PM on the basis of most seats.

TGOHF

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

RobD said:

JackW said:

It seems to me that individuals with a financial interest in the matter tend to the view that :

Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister

Which will it be, EMWNBPM or EMICIPM? :')

I prefer EMHNBPE

(Ed Miliband has not been punched enough)

I expect you mean metaphorical rather than literal punching, but even this does not always work as expected. Ed may perform surprisingly well in the debates, which may allow him to develop ideas and explanations in a way that sound-bite campaigning does not. Cameron may show his Flashman style in the same format. A bullying Cameron may cause a sympathy vote for Ed, particularly in women voters who currently are more undecided than males.

I think the polls have narrowed a little in the last year. Ed has a 3% lead at present, but even trailing by a similar number may well make him PM on the basis of most seats.

What evidence from PMQs or any TV interview is there that Ed can perform well in the debates ?

SquareRoot

Everyone knows Ed Miliband is a duffer. Even those who say they like him (out of loyalty) know in their heart of hearts that he's a duffer.

Freggles

Patrick said:

I wonder what change to polls and betting the Great George Osborne Spring 2015 Election Bonanza Budget will deliver. We all know it's coming.

Right now the SpAds are busy googling

'things poor people like'

'things that are like bingo'

'why don't poor people just start being rich instead'

'where is Birmingham'

DavidL

I think Shadsey pointed out on the previous thread that although the bookmakers and markets really ought to have a better result than opinion polls (since they were looking forward to the particular event and trying to anticipate contingencies whilst polls are generally just a snap shot of now) the evidence was somewhat mixed.

What he didn't say, of course, is that one of the attractions of political betting is that it tends to contain a lot of mug money from those that vote with their heart rather than their head. I can't help feeling that Betfair is possibly an illustration of that.

A few months ago the comparatively low Labour leads indicated that the tories had an excellent chance on historical comparisons. But as each week goes by and the tories make minimal progress in diminishing the Labour lead, let alone begin the long and arduous job of building their own, the probabilities of a Labour win increase. My expectation is that Professor Fisher will show another small movement in that direction today.

My expectation at the moment is that EMWBPM, probably of a minority government.

Freggles

TGOHF said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

RobD said:

JackW said:

It seems to me that individuals with a financial interest in the matter tend to the view that :

Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister

Which will it be, EMWNBPM or EMICIPM? :')

I prefer EMHNBPE

(Ed Miliband has not been punched enough)

I expect you mean metaphorical rather than literal punching, but even this does not always work as expected. Ed may perform surprisingly well in the debates, which may allow him to develop ideas and explanations in a way that sound-bite campaigning does not. Cameron may show his Flashman style in the same format. A bullying Cameron may cause a sympathy vote for Ed, particularly in women voters who currently are more undecided than males.

I think the polls have narrowed a little in the last year. Ed has a 3% lead at present, but even trailing by a similar number may well make him PM on the basis of most seats.

What evidence from PMQs or any TV interview is there that Ed can perform well in the debates ?

I thought it was reported that focus groups initially dislike ed, but start to like him as he gets a chance to make detailed points?

SimonStClare

Games medal board – England extends their lead over the Aussies.

1st ENG G44 S40 B39 tot 123
2nd AUS G36 S36 B41 tot 113

bugger all to do with politics or betting, but what the hell...

foxinsoxuk

TGOHF said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

RobD said:

JackW said:

It seems to me that individuals with a financial interest in the matter tend to the view that :

Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister

Which will it be, EMWNBPM or EMICIPM? :')

I prefer EMHNBPE

(Ed Miliband has not been punched enough)

I expect you mean metaphorical rather than literal punching, but even this does not always work as expected. Ed may perform surprisingly well in the debates, which may allow him to develop ideas and explanations in a way that sound-bite campaigning does not. Cameron may show his Flashman style in the same format. A bullying Cameron may cause a sympathy vote for Ed, particularly in women voters who currently are more undecided than males.

I think the polls have narrowed a little in the last year. Ed has a 3% lead at present, but even trailing by a similar number may well make him PM on the basis of most seats.

What evidence from PMQs or any TV interview is there that Ed can perform well in the debates ?

I think that he is intelligent and also has a certain degree of emotional intelligence. His debate performance is an unknown, but the correct format may show him in his best light. A bear pit with lots of interrupting would favour Cameron, though may lead to some bullying.

PMQ's is a minority interest compared with the debates, but the public perception of it is that MPs behave badly, and favours aggressive extroverts. More thoughtful introverts such as Ed do better in a one to one situation.

I think the Ed factor is priced in to odds and polling, and that while he could implode, the real Black Swan would be an unexpectedly good campaign performance by him.

[Deleted User]

Yes I absolutely and unreservedly do indeed really and genuinely honestly mean that Ed's deserved punching is purely metaphorical m'lud I promise - in the sense that his bubble needs bursting and that the dweeb needs to toughen up before EMICIPM comes to pass. It was an image driven message of purely well intended 'tough love'.

It would be an unforgivable outrage to suggest that a country where 'there is no money left', we're a trillion quid in debt and we still spend a hundred billion more than we earn thanks to a certain serially misguided and incompetent political party should in fact take the leader of said party, listen to his promises to bring back price controls, tax us all more, spend more, bloat the public sector more, deny the people a referendum on who gets to govern them - and beat the miserable f&*%er to a pulp.

...and as I said the other day - I like Ed Miliband...

Pulpstar

I'll say it again:

Lay Con Majority

foxinsoxuk

DavidL said:

I think Shadsey pointed out on the previous thread that although the bookmakers and markets really ought to have a better result than opinion polls (since they were looking forward to the particular event and trying to anticipate contingencies whilst polls are generally just a snap shot of now) the evidence was somewhat mixed.

What he didn't say, of course, is that one of the attractions of political betting is that it tends to contain a lot of mug money from those that vote with their heart rather than their head. I can't help feeling that Betfair is possibly an illustration of that.

A few months ago the comparatively low Labour leads indicated that the tories had an excellent chance on historical comparisons. But as each week goes by and the tories make minimal progress in diminishing the Labour lead, let alone begin the long and arduous job of building their own, the probabilities of a Labour win increase. My expectation is that Professor Fisher will show another small movement in that direction today.

My expectation at the moment is that EMWBPM, probably of a minority government.

I agree. The Labour lead is shrinking too slowly for a Tory majority to be on the cards, and whenever we look at individual seats or marginal polls we are looking at Labour gains. It is hard to find likely Tory gains other than a few west country LD seats. The question is whether Ed can win enough seats to be in a majority. I think he probably can. Labour took Thurmaston council seat last night despite a minor swing against, in part because the kippers took some votes off the Tories. Thurmaston is the sort of midland suburban/small town that will decide next years election.

If I were running Labours campaign I would send out for the inevitable photo-stunts and soundbites people like Ed Balls and Andy Burnham, and depict Ed as the geek with the ideas and vision co-ordinating the team. There has been a notable change in how society views nerds (and most politicians are nerds), from Walter the Softy who deserves a bit of bullying by Dennis to an appreciation that nerds are the new masters of the universe in an internet age.

Blofelds_Cat

Dead Ringers BBC R4 :Ed M is granted a 5 minute sketch of ridicule on prime time.
He is a dud.
He is a figure of public derision.

But he could be PM because Labour voters don't care as long as the baby eaters get beat.
We will get the government we deserve.

DavidL

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

I think Shadsey pointed out on the previous thread that although the bookmakers and markets really ought to have a better result than opinion polls (since they were looking forward to the particular event and trying to anticipate contingencies whilst polls are generally just a snap shot of now) the evidence was somewhat mixed.

What he didn't say, of course, is that one of the attractions of political betting is that it tends to contain a lot of mug money from those that vote with their heart rather than their head. I can't help feeling that Betfair is possibly an illustration of that.

A few months ago the comparatively low Labour leads indicated that the tories had an excellent chance on historical comparisons. But as each week goes by and the tories make minimal progress in diminishing the Labour lead, let alone begin the long and arduous job of building their own, the probabilities of a Labour win increase. My expectation is that Professor Fisher will show another small movement in that direction today.

My expectation at the moment is that EMWBPM, probably of a minority government.

I agree. The Labour lead is shrinking too slowly for a Tory majority to be on the cards, and whenever we look at individual seats or marginal polls we are looking at Labour gains. It is hard to find likely Tory gains other than a few west country LD seats. The question is whether Ed can win enough seats to be in a majority. I think he probably can. Labour took Thurmaston council seat last night despite a minor swing against, in part because the kippers took some votes off the Tories. Thurmaston is the sort of midland suburban/small town that will decide next years election.

If I were running Labours campaign I would send out for the inevitable photo-stunts and soundbites people like Ed Balls and Andy Burnham, and depict Ed as the geek with the ideas and vision co-ordinating the team. There has been a notable change in how society views nerds (and most politicians are nerds), from Walter the Softy who deserves a bit of bullying by Dennis to an appreciation that nerds are the new masters of the universe in an internet age.

For the avoidance of doubt I think Ed will be a terrible PM, really in the Brown mode and for much of the same reasons.

He will be indecisive, he will have a cabinet made up of people who think they know better (some of them may even be right), he will indulge in pointless gesture politics and fail to make long term decisions (as he did as Energy Secretary) and he and his party are completely unprepared for the urgent and necessary task of cutting public spending by at least £50bn a year as the economy recovers.

EMWBPM is seriously bad news for the UK. Doesn't mean it is not going to happen though.

[Deleted User]

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

I think Shadsey pointed out on the previous thread that although the bookmakers and markets really ought to have a better result than opinion polls (since they were looking forward to the particular event and trying to anticipate contingencies whilst polls are generally just a snap shot of now) the evidence was somewhat mixed.

What he didn't say, of course, is that one of the attractions of political betting is that it tends to contain a lot of mug money from those that vote with their heart rather than their head. I can't help feeling that Betfair is possibly an illustration of that.

A few months ago the comparatively low Labour leads indicated that the tories had an excellent chance on historical comparisons. But as each week goes by and the tories make minimal progress in diminishing the Labour lead, let alone begin the long and arduous job of building their own, the probabilities of a Labour win increase. My expectation is that Professor Fisher will show another small movement in that direction today.

My expectation at the moment is that EMWBPM, probably of a minority government.

I agree. The Labour lead is shrinking too slowly for a Tory majority to be on the cards, and whenever we look at individual seats or marginal polls we are looking at Labour gains. It is hard to find likely Tory gains other than a few west country LD seats. The question is whether Ed can win enough seats to be in a majority. I think he probably can. Labour took Thurmaston council seat last night despite a minor swing against, in part because the kippers took some votes off the Tories. Thurmaston is the sort of midland suburban/small town that will decide next years election.

If I were running Labours campaign I would send out for the inevitable photo-stunts and soundbites people like Ed Balls and Andy Burnham, and depict Ed as the geek with the ideas and vision co-ordinating the team. There has been a notable change in how society views nerds (and most politicians are nerds), from Walter the Softy who deserves a bit of bullying by Dennis to an appreciation that nerds are the new masters of the universe in an internet age.

EMWBPM is seriously bad news for the UK. Doesn't mean it is not going to happen though.

EMICIPM is what we are going to get. :-(

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Ebola: really surprised by this, but an infected aid worker's heading to the US for treatment.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-28596416

I'm sure there'll be layers upon layers of security and quarantine, but even so it surprises me.

Also, Draconian law in Russia!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-28583669

This made me laugh:
"It means bloggers with more than 3,000 daily readers must register with the mass media regulator, Roskomnadzor, and conform to the regulations that govern the country's larger media outlets."

Remind me again what the imbecile Leveson wanted to do?

Innocent_Abroad

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

I think Shadsey pointed out on the previous thread that although the bookmakers and markets really ought to have a better result than opinion polls (since they were looking forward to the particular event and trying to anticipate contingencies whilst polls are generally just a snap shot of now) the evidence was somewhat mixed.

My expectation at the moment is that EMWBPM, probably of a minority government.

I agree. The Labour lead is shrinking too slowly for a Tory majority to be on the cards, and whenever we look at individual seats or marginal polls we are looking at Labour gains. It is hard to find likely Tory gains other than a few west country LD seats. The question is whether Ed can win enough seats to be in a majority. I think he probably can. Labour took Thurmaston council seat last night despite a minor swing against, in part because the kippers took some votes off the Tories. Thurmaston is the sort of midland suburban/small town that will decide next years election.

If I were running Labours campaign I would send out for the inevitable photo-stunts and soundbites people like Ed Balls and Andy Burnham, and depict Ed as the geek with the ideas and vision co-ordinating the team. There has been a notable change in how society views nerds (and most politicians are nerds), from Walter the Softy who deserves a bit of bullying by Dennis to an appreciation that nerds are the new masters of the universe in an internet age.

For the avoidance of doubt I think Ed will be a terrible PM, really in the Brown mode and for much of the same reasons.

He will be indecisive, he will have a cabinet made up of people who think they know better (some of them may even be right), he will indulge in pointless gesture politics and fail to make long term decisions (as he did as Energy Secretary) and he and his party are completely unprepared for the urgent and necessary task of cutting public spending by at least £50bn a year as the economy recovers.

EMWBPM is seriously bad news for the UK. Doesn't mean it is not going to happen though.

David, you're making this up (possibly because Labour would be bad for you personally). If you believed a word of it you would be campaigning for the government to treat Labour as it does Islamic radicals bent on violence.

Most people think that Labour's problem is that it's too like the government - that it can't reach out to disaffected Lib Dems (or Don't Knows) without alienating some of its core support.

TOPPING

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

I think Shadsey pointed out on the previous thread that although the bookmakers and markets really ought to have a better result than opinion polls (since they were looking forward to the particular event and trying to anticipate contingencies whilst polls are generally just a snap shot of now) the evidence was somewhat mixed.

What he didn't say, of course, is that one of the attractions of political betting is that it tends to contain a lot of mug money from those that vote with their heart rather than their head. I can't help feeling that Betfair is possibly an illustration of that.



My expectation at the moment is that EMWBPM, probably of a minority government.

I agree. The Labour lead is shrinking too slowly for a Tory majority to be on the cards, and whenever we look at individual seats or marginal polls we are looking at Labour gains. It is hard to find likely Tory gains other than a few west country LD seats. The question is whether Ed can win enough seats to be in a majority. I think he probably can. Labour took Thurmaston council seat last night despite a minor swing against, in part because the kippers took some votes off the Tories. Thurmaston is the sort of midland suburban/small town that will decide next years election.

If I were running Labours campaign I would send out for the inevitable photo-stunts and soundbites people like Ed Balls and Andy Burnham, and depict Ed as the geek with the ideas and vision co-ordinating the team. There has been a notable change in how society views nerds (and most politicians are nerds), from Walter the Softy who deserves a bit of bullying by Dennis to an appreciation that nerds are the new masters of the universe in an internet age.

For the avoidance of doubt I think Ed will be a terrible PM, really in the Brown mode and for much of the same reasons.

He will be indecisive, he will have a cabinet made up of people who think they know better (some of them may even be right), he will indulge in pointless gesture politics and fail to make long term decisions (as he did as Energy Secretary) and he and his party are completely unprepared for the urgent and necessary task of cutting public spending by at least £50bn a year as the economy recovers.

EMWBPM is seriously bad news for the UK. Doesn't mean it is not going to happen though.

God imagine the terms of the debate if DavidM was Lab leader.

Life_ina_market_town

Morris_Dancer said:

Remind me again what the imbecile Leveson wanted to do?

Sir Brian Leveson considered the internet to be outwith his terms of reference, and consequently made no recommendations about how it should be regulated. The conclusions of his report were certainly fundamentally flawed, but he was given a poisoned chalice, and did the best that could have been done under the circumstances.

DavidL

Innocent_Abroad said:

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

I think Shadsey pointed out on the previous thread that although the bookmakers and markets really ought to have a better result than opinion polls (since they were looking forward to the particular event and trying to anticipate contingencies whilst polls are generally just a snap shot of now) the evidence was somewhat mixed.

My expectation at the moment is that EMWBPM, probably of a minority government.

For the avoidance of doubt I think Ed will be a terrible PM, really in the Brown mode and for much of the same reasons.

He will be indecisive, he will have a cabinet made up of people who think they know better (some of them may even be right), he will indulge in pointless gesture politics and fail to make long term decisions (as he did as Energy Secretary) and he and his party are completely unprepared for the urgent and necessary task of cutting public spending by at least £50bn a year as the economy recovers.

EMWBPM is seriously bad news for the UK. Doesn't mean it is not going to happen though.

David, you're making this up (possibly because Labour would be bad for you personally). If you believed a word of it you would be campaigning for the government to treat Labour as it does Islamic radicals bent on violence.

Most people think that Labour's problem is that it's too like the government - that it can't reach out to disaffected Lib Dems (or Don't Knows) without alienating some of its core support.

Really don't understand that. I agree with the view that democracy is the worst form of government apart from all the others. I accept the people have the right to choose and I fear they will choose Ed.

In some respects there will be continuity from this government, just as there was in some respects from the last one. But we have seen in France and now in Argentina that incompetent government can make a bad situation much worse. I expect a Labour party that has completely failed to come to terms with past mistakes to do the same here.

foxinsoxuk

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

I think Shadsey pointed out on the previous thread that although the bookmakers and markets really ought to have a better result than opinion polls (since they were looking forward to the particular event and trying to anticipate contingencies whilst polls are generally just a snap shot of now) the evidence was somewhat mixed.


My expectation at the moment is that EMWBPM, probably of a minority government.

I agree. The Labour lead is shrinking too slowly for a Tory majority to be on the cards, and whenever we look at individual seats or marginal polls we are looking at Labour gains. It is hard to find likely Tory gains other than a few west country LD seats. The question is whether Ed can win enough seats to be in a majority. I think he probably can. Labour took Thurmaston council seat last night despite a minor swing against, in part because the kippers took some votes off the Tories. Thurmaston is the sort of midland suburban/small town that will decide next years election.

If I were running Labours campaign I would send out for the inevitable photo-stunts and soundbites people like Ed Balls and Andy Burnham, and depict Ed as the geek with the ideas and vision co-ordinating the team. There has been a notable change in how society views nerds (and most politicians are nerds), from Walter the Softy who deserves a bit of bullying by Dennis to an appreciation that nerds are the new masters of the universe in an internet age.

For the avoidance of doubt I think Ed will be a terrible PM, really in the Brown mode and for much of the same reasons.

He will be indecisive, he will have a cabinet made up of people who think they know better (some of them may even be right), he will indulge in pointless gesture politics and fail to make long term decisions (as he did as Energy Secretary) and he and his party are completely unprepared for the urgent and necessary task of cutting public spending by at least £50bn a year as the economy recovers.

EMWBPM is seriously bad news for the UK. Doesn't mean it is not going to happen though.

My thoughts again. I also fear a xenophobic Tory party in majority government naval gazing about Europe while trashing rather than gently reforming British Institutions.

I anticipate an LD pasting next year, but am hopeful that they can then revive as both Tories and Labour implode with internal feuds, then sail back to power in 2015 as the party of sensible centrist government. I am also realistic enough to see that this is a longshot more than 50:1 POTUS predictions!

bigjohnowls

Tell me why Leveson is an imbecile.

I presume you would label the Dowler family as imbeciles too

DavidL

Life_ina_market_town said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Remind me again what the imbecile Leveson wanted to do?

Sir Brian Leveson considered the internet to be outwith his terms of reference, and consequently made no recommendations about how it should be regulated. The conclusions of his report were certainly fundamentally flawed, but he was given a poisoned chalice, and did the best that could have been done under the circumstances.

Sir Brian Leveson seemed incapable of telling the difference between the value of the secondary market in bedroom tittle tattle to magazines and newspapers (that was clearly being undermined to some extent by phone hacking) on the one hand and the necessity of a free press to keep our political lords and masters accountable on the other.

His inability to achieve this resulted in some rather perverse conclusions. His report should be left to gather dust.

asjohnstone

TGOHF said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

RobD said:

JackW said:

It seems to me that individuals with a financial interest in the matter tend to the view that :

Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister

Which will it be, EMWNBPM or EMICIPM? :')

I prefer EMHNBPE

(Ed Miliband has not been punched enough)

I expect you mean metaphorical rather than literal punching, but even this does not always work as expected. Ed may perform surprisingly well in the debates, which may allow him to develop ideas and explanations in a way that sound-bite campaigning does not. Cameron may show his Flashman style in the same format. A bullying Cameron may cause a sympathy vote for Ed, particularly in women voters who currently are more undecided than males.

I think the polls have narrowed a little in the last year. Ed has a 3% lead at present, but even trailing by a similar number may well make him PM on the basis of most seats.

What evidence from PMQs or any TV interview is there that Ed can perform well in the debates ?

He doesn't have to perform "well", he just has to perform better than expected. Debates are always judged by expectation, if expectations of Ed are so very low, and he manages to beat them, he wins.

He doesn't have to out perform Dave, just the medias low expectations of him

DavidL

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

I think Shadsey pointed out on the previous thread that although the bookmakers and markets really ought to have a better result than opinion polls (since they were looking forward to the particular event and trying to anticipate contingencies whilst polls are generally just a snap shot of now) the evidence was somewhat mixed.


My expectation at the moment is that EMWBPM, probably of a minority government.

For the avoidance of doubt I think Ed will be a terrible PM, really in the Brown mode and for much of the same reasons.

He will be indecisive, he will have a cabinet made up of people who think they know better (some of them may even be right), he will indulge in pointless gesture politics and fail to make long term decisions (as he did as Energy Secretary) and he and his party are completely unprepared for the urgent and necessary task of cutting public spending by at least £50bn a year as the economy recovers.

EMWBPM is seriously bad news for the UK. Doesn't mean it is not going to happen though.

My thoughts again. I also fear a xenophobic Tory party in majority government naval gazing about Europe while trashing rather than gently reforming British Institutions.

I anticipate an LD pasting next year, but am hopeful that they can then revive as both Tories and Labour implode with internal feuds, then sail back to power in 2015 as the party of sensible centrist government. I am also realistic enough to see that this is a longshot more than 50:1 POTUS predictions!

Personally I would like to see the Orange bookers absorbed into the tory party as a moderating influence and I would not be too distressed to see some of the EU obsessives leaving the back door to UKIP in exchange. Don't think that is going to happen either.

bigjohnowls

I think EICIPM will implement Leveson in full.

No reason not to.

asjohnstone

Patrick said:

I wonder what change to polls and betting the Great George Osborne Spring 2015 Election Bonanza Budget will deliver. We all know it's coming.

I'm fairly sure it isn't.

The justification for the tories remaining in power is tough times demand tough leadership.

A bonanza budget with spend ups or tax cuts undermines that narrative, plus it's un affordable, the public debt is still vast a still growing at a frightening rate.

Life_ina_market_town

DavidL said:

Sir Brian Leveson seemed incapable of telling the difference between the value of the secondary market in bedroom tittle tattle to magazines and newspapers (that was clearly being undermined to some extent by phone hacking) on the one hand and the necessity of a free press to keep our political lords and masters accountable on the other.

His inability to achieve this resulted in some rather perverse conclusions. His report should be left to gather dust.

I agree that his somewhat loquacious report should be left on the bookshelf. I also agree that, if implemented, it would have had deleterious consequences for free speech. It must, however, be emphasised that the whole point of the inquiry was to give political cover for a form of statutory regulation of the press. He was charged with giving recommendations on 'a new more effective policy and regulatory regime'. It is unsurprising he reached the conclusions that he did.

DavidL

bigjohnowls said:

I think EICIPM will implement Leveson in full.

No reason not to.

I am sure he will. Curtailment of freedom is a signature card of Labour as is increasing the power of an over mighty state.

And the way that hundreds of celebs with trouser and skirt incontinence hid and continue to hide behind one tragic little girl is disgusting. No doubt they will have all donated their damages to a suitable cause in her memory. Or not.

TheScreamingEagles

Poll alert. Apols if mentioned. M

The poll gave Labour a seven-point lead on 36%, to the Tories' 29%, with Ukip on 19% and the Liberal Democrats trailing on 7%. But despite Ukip's apparent advantage over the Lib Dems, the first-past-the-post electoral system is likely to deny the party any more than a handful of MPs.

Changes since their last poll mid June

Con no change

Lab plus 1

LD plus 1

UKIP minus 4

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/01/conservative-voters-ukip-coalition-poll

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Life_ina_market_town said:

DavidL said:

Sir Brian Leveson seemed incapable of telling the difference between the value of the secondary market in bedroom tittle tattle to magazines and newspapers (that was clearly being undermined to some extent by phone hacking) on the one hand and the necessity of a free press to keep our political lords and masters accountable on the other.

His inability to achieve this resulted in some rather perverse conclusions. His report should be left to gather dust.

I agree that his somewhat loquacious report should be left on the bookshelf. I also agree that, if implemented, it would have had deleterious consequences for free speech. It must, however, be emphasised that the whole point of the inquiry was to give political cover for a form of statutory regulation of the press. He was charged with giving recommendations on 'a new more effective policy and regulatory regime'. It is unsurprising he reached the conclusions that he did.

It's gonna happen. Politicians want their revenge for expenses.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pubgoer, vindictiveness rarely makes good law.

bigjohnowls

DavidL said:

bigjohnowls said:

I think EICIPM will implement Leveson in full.

No reason not to.

I am sure he will. Curtailment of freedom is a signature card of Labour as is increasing the power of an over mighty state.

And the way that hundreds of celebs with trouser and skirt incontinence hid and continue to hide behind one tragic little girl is disgusting. No doubt they will have all donated their damages to a suitable cause in her memory. Or not.

Curtailment of freedom of the powerful vested interests to break the law. I am all for that.

PCC2 will not curtail them.

The press like the energy companies think they can take the piss.

Time someone stood up to them EICIPM is the man.

TheScreamingEagles

O/T

The Guardians of the Galaxy is the greatest movie ever.

I laughed, I cheered. I geekgasmed on multiple occasions.

And it has an awesome 70/80s soundtrack.

As always an extra scene post credits that was awesome.

Innocent_Abroad

DavidL said:

bigjohnowls said:

I think EICIPM will implement Leveson in full.

No reason not to.

I am sure he will. Curtailment of freedom is a signature card of Labour as is increasing the power of an over mighty state.

And the way that hundreds of celebs with trouser and skirt incontinence hid and continue to hide behind one tragic little girl is disgusting. No doubt they will have all donated their damages to a suitable cause in her memory. Or not.

Please list the freedoms which we lost during the years 1997-2010 and which have been restored by the Coalition.

TheScreamingEagles

On topic a masterful strategy by George Osborne.

The 2015 budget will be the starting gun for the next election campaign, Labour should be afraid, very afraid.

Then again he's the man who gave us the omnishambles budget.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Owls, it's not curtailing that 'freedom'. Laws were already in place to stop much of what happened. It's a question of enforcement, not legislation.

New laws aren't a magic incantation that will banish wickedness from the newsroom, and they shouldn't be implemented to appease the wounded egos of celebrities eager to exploit the media for beneficial coverage but who are equally keen to truncate their capacity to report anything less positive.

Better a wild press than a tame one.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, have you seen Karen Gillan[sp] is in the new series of A Touch of Cloth?

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, have you seen Karen Gillan[sp] is in the new series of A Touch of Cloth?

I've seen the trailer.

MrJones

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2014/07/wh-accidentally-emails-torture-report-doc-to-ap-193218.html?hp=r3

CIA torture report gets accidentally leaked. I wonder if it mentions any assistance from the UK?

hucks67

Why are people so obsessed with Ed Miliband ? Seems to me that as a leader of the opposition he is getting a lot of publicity and this is actually really good, even if most of it is not that positive. It means that most of the public have heard of him and he has a chance of being listened to. And while they are talking about him being weird, they are not focusing that much on Labours policies.

Why not start questioning the leadership of David Cameron and Nick Clegg ?

Is Cameron a stronger or weaker leader of the Tories now than he was in April 2010 ? Is Cameron now being held captive by the EUsceptic side of his party and will therefore find it difficult to renegotiate EU membership terms that most of his party will agree with ?

Will Nick Clegg have to stand down as Lib Dem leader, if they lose half of their votes and a large number of MP's ? If Nick Clegg is a damaged leader after a poor 2015 result, how will this affect any negotiations on a new coalition government ?

Life_ina_market_town

bigjohnowls said:

Curtailment of freedom of the powerful vested interests to break the law. I am all for that.

PCC2 will not curtail them.

The press like the energy companies think they can take the piss.

Time someone stood up to them EICIPM is the man.

Law breaking will continue to be a matter for the police, the CPS and the criminal courts. Sir Brian Leveson certainly did not recommend that any other body should have jurisdiction to deal with criminality. The recent judgments and verdicts of conviction recorded at the Central Criminal Court convincingly demonstrate that the 'vested interests' were not above the law in the period before the Leveson Inquiry was established.

The real issue is this. Should a newspaper which is not, and never has been mixed up in wrongdoing, and is also signed up to a regulatory body chaired by a former Lord Justice of Appeal, nevertheless be forced to bear the costs of unsuccessful parties in defamation and privacy cases? That is what implementing Leveson's recommendations will mean in practice.

MarqueeMark

I find it fascinating that those who expect a Labour government after the next election also widely expect it to be hideously unpopular within months. Why?

All the reasons for assuming this - Ed turning out to be a dreadful PM, going along with the Coalition's policies and disappointing supporters, strife between the unions wanting massive borrowing and the City giving dire warnings if they do, Labour adrift on how to manage an economy when they cannot expand the public sector, lying about not increasing taxes, finding that it cannot control the energy markets, cosying up to Brussels, looking weak when Spain gets belligerent over Gibraltar and Argentina over the Falklands, still getting nil points in Eurovision even after the baby-eating Tories are gone - these are all reasons the voters will pause and not take the risk of voting Labour in the first place.....

bigjohnowls

Innocent_Abroad said:

DavidL said:

bigjohnowls said:

I think EICIPM will implement Leveson in full.

No reason not to.

I am sure he will. Curtailment of freedom is a signature card of Labour as is increasing the power of an over mighty state.

And the way that hundreds of celebs with trouser and skirt incontinence hid and continue to hide behind one tragic little girl is disgusting. No doubt they will have all donated their damages to a suitable cause in her memory. Or not.

Please list the freedoms which we lost during the years 1997-2010 and which have been restored by the Coalition.

Postage stamp required for ensuing long list.

Pulpstar

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Ebola: really surprised by this, but an infected aid worker's heading to the US for treatment.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-28596416

I'm sure there'll be layers upon layers of security and quarantine, but even so it surprises me.

Also, Draconian law in Russia!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-28583669

This made me laugh:
"It means bloggers with more than 3,000 daily readers must register with the mass media regulator, Roskomnadzor, and conform to the regulations that govern the country's larger media outlets."

Remind me again what the imbecile Leveson wanted to do?

Good Morning and very well played in the PB Diplomacy game - Holland, Liverpool and Ankara takes you to 18 after my blunder

Smyrna MOVE Constantinople -> Bounced
Aegean Sea MOVE Constantinople -> Bounced

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pulpstar, thanks.

To be honest, I was surprised you didn't chew up a few Italian supply centres. I wouldn't've minded a draw, but with Ankara enticing my lovely Black Sea fleet...

I've made some mistakes like that. Happens to everyone (made some howlers, especially in the first game).

I just hope that if/when I play again I get another country.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poll alert. Apols if mentioned. M

The poll gave Labour a seven-point lead on 36%, to the Tories' 29%, with Ukip on 19% and the Liberal Democrats trailing on 7%. But despite Ukip's apparent advantage over the Lib Dems, the first-past-the-post electoral system is likely to deny the party any more than a handful of MPs.

Changes since their last poll mid June

Con no change

Lab plus 1

LD plus 1

UKIP minus 4

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/01/conservative-voters-ukip-coalition-poll

UKIP were never on 23% - mind you they haven't been on 9% either.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poll alert. Apols if mentioned. M

The poll gave Labour a seven-point lead on 36%, to the Tories' 29%, with Ukip on 19% and the Liberal Democrats trailing on 7%. But despite Ukip's apparent advantage over the Lib Dems, the first-past-the-post electoral system is likely to deny the party any more than a handful of MPs.

Changes since their last poll mid June

Con no change

Lab plus 1

LD plus 1

UKIP minus 4

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/01/conservative-voters-ukip-coalition-poll

UKIP were never on 23% - mind you they haven't been on 9% either.

The trend is your friend.

Sleazy broken UKIP on the slide with most pollsters after the Euros.

Pulpstar

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pulpstar, thanks.

To be honest, I was surprised you didn't chew up a few Italian supply centres. I wouldn't've minded a draw, but with Ankara enticing my lovely Black Sea fleet...

I've made some mistakes like that. Happens to everyone (made some howlers, especially in the first game).

I just hope that if/when I play again I get another country.

If I'd have got a unit to Constantinople we'd still have been playing - but you reach 18 in the fall regardless of what I do.

Annoyed with myself that basically that blunder has cost everyone the match but you deserve the win.

And Italy has scrapped hard in the south. The same sadly can't be said of Germany.

Edit:

Double checked - My blunder didn't matter

NTH & Holland Support Eng -> Belgium conquers the territory

Even with Burgundy Support Belgium

NAO -> Liverpool &

Holland itself gets you to 18

Ankara doesn't actually matter.

bigjohnowls

Ebola really has brought out the racists on the Telegraph website. "No flights from Africa"
The Morons don't seem to realise that London is closer to Tunisia than Liberia

Think I might buy a nice break to Tunisia for Mts BJ and hope the morons get their way

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pulpstar, aye, Italy did well to recover after France looked stronger earlier, but a few failures to build new units and occasional narcolepsy cost King Freggioli dear.

Kind of you to say so, but it was a team effort. Unlike the last game, Germany falling asleep helped me a lot. Perplexed by your 'getting behind the lines' move, though. Made me rather suspicious.

Still, at least Europe can enjoy a happy future under the benevolent rule of the Czar.

john_zims

@TSE

'Lib Dem voters preferred a coalition with the Tories rather than Labour by a margin of 36% to 26%, with 13% saying the party should go into opposition rather than joining another coalition.'

Surely it should be the other way round,Lib Dem voters preferring a coalition with Labour?

bigjohnowls

Todays TNS poll LAB 367 CON 233 LD 23 (UKPR)

Ed is crap is Landslide PM

Very old poll fieldwork 2 weeks ago

JackW

bigjohnowls said:

Ebola really has brought out the racists on the Telegraph website. "No flights from Africa"
The Morons don't seem to realise that London is closer to Tunisia than Liberia

Think I might buy a nice break to Tunisia for Mts BJ and hope the morons get their way

And then there are some morons who think Tunisia isn't in Africa ....

Tsk ....

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poll alert. Apols if mentioned. M

The poll gave Labour a seven-point lead on 36%, to the Tories' 29%, with Ukip on 19% and the Liberal Democrats trailing on 7%. But despite Ukip's apparent advantage over the Lib Dems, the first-past-the-post electoral system is likely to deny the party any more than a handful of MPs.

Changes since their last poll mid June

Con no change

Lab plus 1

LD plus 1

UKIP minus 4

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/01/conservative-voters-ukip-coalition-poll

Looks like the fieldwork was 15th-17th July.

RobD

bigjohnowls said:

Todays TNS poll LAB 367 CON 233 LD 23 (UKPR)

Ed is crap is Landslide PM

Very old poll fieldwork 2 weeks ago

Yeah, it has been in my list for a week already. Keep up TSE, and shame on Guardian for not publishing this story a week ago!

Pulpstar

This TNS poll has been out a while, I remember @isam referring to it.

foxinsoxuk

MarqueeMark said:

I find it fascinating that those who expect a Labour government after the next election also widely expect it to be hideously unpopular within months. Why?

All the reasons for assuming this - Ed turning out to be a dreadful PM, going along with the Coalition's policies and disappointing supporters, strife between the unions wanting massive borrowing and the City giving dire warnings if they do, Labour adrift on how to manage an economy when they cannot expand the public sector, lying about not increasing taxes, finding that it cannot control the energy markets, cosying up to Brussels, looking weak when Spain gets belligerent over Gibraltar and Argentina over the Falklands, still getting nil points in Eurovision even after the baby-eating Tories are gone - these are all reasons the voters will pause and not take the risk of voting Labour in the first place.....

Majority Tory government ain't very appealing either! Hence the apathy and interest in minority parties.

TGOHF

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poll alert. Apols if mentioned. M

The poll gave Labour a seven-point lead on 36%, to the Tories' 29%, with Ukip on 19% and the Liberal Democrats trailing on 7%. But despite Ukip's apparent advantage over the Lib Dems, the first-past-the-post electoral system is likely to deny the party any more than a handful of MPs.

Changes since their last poll mid June

Con no change

Lab plus 1

LD plus 1

UKIP minus 4

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/01/conservative-voters-ukip-coalition-poll

UKIP were never on 23% - mind you they haven't been on 9% either.

The trend is your friend.

Sleazy broken UKIP on the slide with most pollsters after the Euros.

Kippers need a Survation - had them on 22% on the last poll..

Last night's local elections - Kippers lost in Wales then enabled a Labour win in Leic

Thurmaston (Charnwood) result: LAB GAIN
LAB - 42.6% (-4.3)
UKIP - 27.0% (+27.0)
CON - 22.0% (-31.0)
BNP - 5.2% (+5.2)
BDEM - 3.2% (+3.2)

Thus reminding us - vote Kipper get PM ED.

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

Todays TNS poll LAB 367 CON 233 LD 23 (UKPR)

Ed is crap is Landslide PM

Very old poll fieldwork 2 weeks ago

Yeah, it has been in my list for a week already. Keep up TSE, and shame on Guardian for not publishing this story a week ago!

TNS have implied on their website that it is a new poll

http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/public-opinion-monitor-labour-conservative-supporters-favour-lib-dem-coalition-if-no-p

Bond_James_Bond

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

RobD said:

JackW said:

It seems to me that individuals with a financial interest in the matter tend to the view that :

Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister

Which will it be, EMWNBPM or EMICIPM? :')

I prefer EMHNBPE

(Ed Miliband has not been punched enough)

I expect you mean metaphorical rather than literal punching, but even this does not always work as expected. Ed may perform surprisingly well in the debates, which may allow him to develop ideas and explanations in a way that sound-bite campaigning does not. Cameron may show his Flashman style in the same format. A bullying Cameron may cause a sympathy vote for Ed, particularly in women voters who currently are more undecided than males.

I think the polls have narrowed a little in the last year. Ed has a 3% lead at present, but even trailing by a similar number may well make him PM on the basis of most seats.

I don't understand this guff about Cameron being a bully. Any fool looking at his weedy body, his bland pudding face and his patent lack of sporting prowess can see that at any public school worthy of its name, Cameron would have been the one being bullied.

At my school, Cameron could have been in the Upper Sixth and it wouldn't have made any difference. The Remove would still have flushed his head down the toilets just before he was due to give the Latin oration on Founder's Day.

TheScreamingEagles

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poll alert. Apols if mentioned. M

The poll gave Labour a seven-point lead on 36%, to the Tories' 29%, with Ukip on 19% and the Liberal Democrats trailing on 7%. But despite Ukip's apparent advantage over the Lib Dems, the first-past-the-post electoral system is likely to deny the party any more than a handful of MPs.

Changes since their last poll mid June

Con no change

Lab plus 1

LD plus 1

UKIP minus 4

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/01/conservative-voters-ukip-coalition-poll

UKIP were never on 23% - mind you they haven't been on 9% either.

The trend is your friend.

Sleazy broken UKIP on the slide with most pollsters after the Euros.

Kippers need a Survation - had them on 22% on the last poll..

Last night's local elections - Kippers lost in Wales then enabled a Labour win in Leic

Thurmaston (Charnwood) result: LAB GAIN
LAB - 42.6% (-4.3)
UKIP - 27.0% (+27.0)
CON - 22.0% (-31.0)
BNP - 5.2% (+5.2)
BDEM - 3.2% (+3.2)

Thus reminding us - vote Kipper get PM ED.

Vote Silly, Get Milli

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

Todays TNS poll LAB 367 CON 233 LD 23 (UKPR)

Ed is crap is Landslide PM

Very old poll fieldwork 2 weeks ago

Yeah, it has been in my list for a week already. Keep up TSE, and shame on Guardian for not publishing this story a week ago!

TNS have implied on their website that it is a new poll

http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/public-opinion-monitor-labour-conservative-supporters-favour-lib-dem-coalition-if-no-p

TNS are a bunch of amateurs, clearly ;-)

I think we've known about this poll since the 21st/22nd July.

bigjohnowls

Latest from Prof Fisher

http://t.co/6ClKTAx6qJ

HurstLlama

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pulpstar, aye, Italy did well to recover after France looked stronger earlier, but a few failures to build new units and occasional narcolepsy cost King Freggioli dear.

Kind of you to say so, but it was a team effort. Unlike the last game, Germany falling asleep helped me a lot. Perplexed by your 'getting behind the lines' move, though. Made me rather suspicious.

Still, at least Europe can enjoy a happy future under the benevolent rule of the Czar.

Congratulations, Mr. D., getting a solo on your second outing is very good going. The power of the Juggernaut if the other countries don't combine against it is awesome, the result though is seldom what Turkey expects. Be careful what you wish for in terms of countries, next time you might get Italy.

Well done too Mr. Pulpstar, some nifty footwork and, I suspect, some smart diplomacy kept you in contention until the very late game. At one point Russia, with a little assistance from Italy was in a position to deliver a two turn knock out, a rare stab of totally devastating effect that would have a made a Russian solo inevitable, and he didn't take it. Your diplomacy must have been good.

Thanks too to Monty and Freggles who stayed the course, despite a clearly impossible position from quite early on.

bigjohnowls

More detail from Prof Fisher

Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 35.4% (±7.5, i.e. 28% – 43%)
Lab: 32.1% (±5.6, i.e. 26% – 38%)
LD: 11.9% (±8.4, i.e. 4% – 20%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 20.6%
– UKIP: 11.2%

TheScreamingEagles

Grrr I hate it when the media do this (A poll of polls is not a FECKING POLL)

The Independent ‏@Independent 6m

Scotland is on course to vote No to independence according to our poll http://ind.pn/WQS5YO

RobD

bigjohnowls said:

More detail from Prof Fisher

Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 35.4% (±7.5, i.e. 28% – 43%)
Lab: 32.1% (±5.6, i.e. 26% – 38%)
LD: 11.9% (±8.4, i.e. 4% – 20%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 20.6%
– UKIP: 11.2%

Tories on 43%, LDs on 4%... that'd be a good night ;-)

Financier

Today's YouGov: 34/38/8/13/4

The LD 2010 split of Labour 38/ LD 27 is the biggest difference (11) since 5th June. The average difference for July was 2.3 and for June was 4.3.

Morris_Dancer

Thanks, Mr. Llama.

I think Austria would be worse than Italy. Austria's role in the game largely seems to be a warm up blooding before the real conflicts start.

foxinsoxuk

Bond_James_Bond said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

RobD said:

JackW said:

It seems to me that individuals with a financial interest in the matter tend to the view that :

Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister

Which will it be, EMWNBPM or EMICIPM? :')

I prefer EMHNBPE

(Ed Miliband has not been punched enough)

I expect you mean metaphorical rather than literal punching, but even this does not always work as expected. Ed may perform surprisingly well in the debates, which may allow him to develop ideas and explanations in a way that sound-bite campaigning does not. Cameron may show his Flashman style in the same format. A bullying Cameron may cause a sympathy vote for Ed, particularly in women voters who currently are more undecided than males.

I think the polls have narrowed a little in the last year. Ed has a 3% lead at present, but even trailing by a similar number may well make him PM on the basis of most seats.

I don't understand this guff about Cameron being a bully. Any fool looking at his weedy body, his bland pudding face and his patent lack of sporting prowess can see that at any public school worthy of its name, Cameron would have been the one being bullied.

At my school, Cameron could have been in the Upper Sixth and it wouldn't have made any difference. The Remove would still have flushed his head down the toilets just before he was due to give the Latin oration on Founder's Day.

My experience witnessing bullying at (comprehensive) school is that bullies are rarely the confident and powerful, but rather those that wish to impress the confident and powerful.

I do not think Cameron is a bully (though bullying behaviour seems to be tolerated and normalised at Westminster in a way that would lead to disciplinary action in other organisations) but he does sometimes come across that way at PMQs and similar events.

bigjohnowls

Prof Fisher reckons all 4 options equally likely according to his figures


Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 299 (219 – 391)
Lab: 295 (208 – 370)
LD: 28 (22 – 35)

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

More detail from Prof Fisher

Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 35.4% (±7.5, i.e. 28% – 43%)
Lab: 32.1% (±5.6, i.e. 26% – 38%)
LD: 11.9% (±8.4, i.e. 4% – 20%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 20.6%
– UKIP: 11.2%

Tories on 43%, LDs on 4%... that'd be a good night ;-)

As Peter Snow used to say, just for fun, if you Baxter

Con 43, Lab 26, LD 4 and UKIP 11.2 you get

Con 411, Lab 208, LD 2 (two) UKIP Zero

Con majority of 172

SouthamObserver

john_zims said:

@TSE

'Lib Dem voters preferred a coalition with the Tories rather than Labour by a margin of 36% to 26%, with 13% saying the party should go into opposition rather than joining another coalition.'

Surely it should be the other way round,Lib Dem voters preferring a coalition with Labour?

Probably not the ones who have stuck with the LDs.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

More detail from Prof Fisher

Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 35.4% (±7.5, i.e. 28% – 43%)
Lab: 32.1% (±5.6, i.e. 26% – 38%)
LD: 11.9% (±8.4, i.e. 4% – 20%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 20.6%
– UKIP: 11.2%

Tories on 43%, LDs on 4%... that'd be a good night ;-)

As Peter Snow used to say, just for fun, if you Baxter

Con 43, Lab 26, LD 4 and UKIP 11.2 you get

Con 411, Lab 208, LD 2 (two) UKIP Zero

Con majority of 172

Ahhhh

foxinsoxuk

Morris_Dancer said:

Thanks, Mr. Llama.

I think Austria would be worse than Italy. Austria's role in the game largely seems to be a warm up blooding before the real conflicts start.

Thanks to all Diplomats! I enjoyed the games and if there is a winter game may have another crack at it.

Austria always gets destroyed quickly, starting the war was really a very bad idea for Austria-Hungary in so many ways.

Bond_James_Bond

foxinsoxuk said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

RobD said:

JackW said:

It seems to me that individuals with a financial interest in the matter tend to the view that :

Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister

Which will it be, EMWNBPM or EMICIPM? :')

I prefer EMHNBPE

(Ed Miliband has not been punched enough)

I expect you mean metaphorical rather than literal punching, but even this does not always work as expected. Ed may perform surprisingly well in the debates, which may allow him to develop ideas and explanations in a way that sound-bite campaigning does not. Cameron may show his Flashman style in the same format. A bullying Cameron may cause a sympathy vote for Ed, particularly in women voters who currently are more undecided than males.

I think the polls have narrowed a little in the last year. Ed has a 3% lead at present, but even trailing by a similar number may well make him PM on the basis of most seats.

I don't understand this guff about Cameron being a bully. Any fool looking at his weedy body, his bland pudding face and his patent lack of sporting prowess can see that at any public school worthy of its name, Cameron would have been the one being bullied.

At my school, Cameron could have been in the Upper Sixth and it wouldn't have made any difference. The Remove would still have flushed his head down the toilets just before he was due to give the Latin oration on Founder's Day.

My experience witnessing bullying at (comprehensive) school is that bullies are rarely the confident and powerful, but rather those that wish to impress the confident and powerful.

I do not think Cameron is a bully (though bullying behaviour seems to be tolerated and normalised at Westminster in a way that would lead to disciplinary action in other organisations) but he does sometimes come across that way at PMQs and similar events.

Interesting - at my school there was a clique of perhaps 10% of each year that regarded itself as "popular". These were mainly excruciatingly thick and hearty sportsmen. Anyone the clique decided was unpopular was likely to be bullied in the sense of verbally insulted. The bullying would become physical if responded to.

In the main this coterie largely ignored everyone else, but it has always been untrue in my experience that bullies are weak or cowards. School bullies were usually happy to accommodate anyone at all to a fight. In the workplace, same thing.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Foxinsox, I always feel a bit bad (well, both times) about immediately attacking Austria, but if you're playing as Russia it seems almost inevitable.

Pulpstar

Your best bet as Austria is talking to Italy, Austria is a stonking early game partner for Italy - once Turkey has been Lepantoed, Italy should switch to Russia though.

I think that's the best strategy.

Mind you in my first 1900 game I got France - that makes Austria look like a cakewalk. Germany is way too strong in 1900.

Pulpstar

Austria and Russia can also gang up on Turkey - if Germany and France are plundering perfidious Albion, Italy, Russia and Austria smashing into Turkey is good news for them.

Scott_P

@grantshapps: #SameOldLabour – They just love more taxes... hitting families across the country in the pocket. http://t.co/DA1ellvcyi

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pulpstar, what's the difference with the 1900 variant?

Pulpstar

I find the one nation that needs stopping above all others tbh is actually Turkey - once Turkey gets to 5 centres it can't really be killed.

I always try and make a point of strangling it at birth if I can (When I am not playing as it obviously...)

Financier

An EDM led Labour government would be soft on:

Europe: just take what it imposes
Immigration : let it flow and let all who come claim benefits even if their family is not in the UK.
ECHR: Just follow its rulings.
Benefits; Increases for many
Education: Only controlled by political LAs
Health: Still a postcode lottery and declining standards
Deficit: borrow against it.

Pulpstar

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pulpstar, what's the difference with the 1900 variant?

Slightly different map, the key point for France being that England starts with a unit in flipping Gibraltar and 3 other fleets !! Mid Atlantic Ocean can also be attacked through the back door by Turkey using the Suez Canal backdoor and Italy is a hell of alot stronger - they can normally claim Switzerland (Which isn't neutral)

France is very much like Austria.

Neil

Financier said:

An EDM led Labour government would be soft on:

Europe: just take what it imposes
Immigration : let it flow and let all who come claim benefits even if their family is not in the UK.
ECHR: Just follow its rulings.
Benefits; Increases for many
Education: Only controlled by political LAs
Health: Still a postcode lottery and declining standards
Deficit: borrow against it.

Shall we put you down as a maybe?

bigjohnowls

Sorry if already posted but doesn't quite look how was portrayed on election night.

http://www.columnist.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/14le-infographic.png

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pulpstar, ah, right.

Yeah, it was a bugger trying to winkle Sultan Foxy out of the Sublime Porte in my first game.

Mr. Financier, it'll be interesting to see what policies Labour unveil. Still the referendum to go, though.