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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There can be no getting round the fact that Tories are stil

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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,128
    NP wrote, inter alia.

    "But the Conservative position is to have a referendum in 2017 on this supposed treaty (which won't be ready yet) anticipating giving Britain various powers back (which won't happen to any significant degree) based on a British Government wish-list (which the Government declines to disclose).”

    Let us assume that a Tory government in 2015 (minority or otherwise) produces a wish list for powers to be repatriated. The rest of the EU says OK, we’ll talk about them. Many of the iissues prove contentious and many of them have implications for some of our colleagues which the British hadn;’t considered, which they want to consider in depth. By mid 2017 some agreement has been reached on some issues, but by no means all, and indeed the British Government itself is beginning to wish it hadn’t included some items.
    Will there actually be a referendum? Or will it be delayed until 2018?
    And how will that play here in UK?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Perdix, you're quite right about Labour's perfidious nature over the EU.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Populus LAB 347 CON 256 LD 21 Other 26 (ukpr)

    Ed is crap is PM. As with every poll this weekend EICIPM

    If only the election had been held this weekend!
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,128
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Mr. Eagles, for once, you should emulate Caesar and show contempt for republicanism.

    Monarchy's delightful. The alternative would be having godawful presidents, to paraphrase Francis Uqurthart.

    I like her Majesty.

    But the Divine Rights of Kings. nah.

    Terrible principle.

    I really do worry about how terrible Prince Charles as Monarch will be.
    However bad he might be it won't be anywhere near as awful as a republic. We did try one once, remember, it was not a success.

    As for the Devine Right of Kings the English threw out that nasty imported idea (quite against the English tradition) when it threw out the Stuarts. Do try and keep, up Mr Eagles.
    The demise of the Divine Right of Kings was effectively signalled by Charles I having the misfortune to mislay his head in 1649 and then for his granddaughter Mary to treacherously usurp her father in 1688.

    The Stuarts continued to rule for many years to come despite the inter family spat.



    Anne was the last Stuart monarch, reigning as recently as 1714. In fact she died almost exactly 300 years ago.
    De Jure the last Stuart monarch was King Henry IX who died in 1807. He was the last surviving grandson of James VII/II of Scotland/England.

    Isn’t there a German princeling somewhere who has a Jacobite claim?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited July 2014

    Will there actually be a referendum? Or will it be delayed until 2018?
    And how will that play here in UK?

    Yes, there will absolutely, under all circumstances, without any glimmer of wriggle room, be a referendum by the end of 2017, assuming of course we have a Conservative majority government. If our EU friends haven't been able to get their act together by then, the British people will have to decide, when they vote, whether that makes it too risky to vote to stay In or not.

    If there's a minority government, then of course it's impossible for the Conservatives to guarantee anything, since by definition non-Conservative MPs will be able to block it should they so wish.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Mr. Eagles, for once, you should emulate Caesar and show contempt for republicanism.

    Monarchy's delightful. The alternative would be having godawful presidents, to paraphrase Francis Uqurthart.

    I like her Majesty.

    But the Divine Rights of Kings. nah.

    Terrible principle.

    I really do worry about how terrible Prince Charles as Monarch will be.
    However bad he might be it won't be anywhere near as awful as a republic. We did try one once, remember, it was not a success.

    As for the Devine Right of Kings the English threw out that nasty imported idea (quite against the English tradition) when it threw out the Stuarts. Do try and keep, up Mr Eagles.
    The demise of the Divine Right of Kings was effectively signalled by Charles I having the misfortune to mislay his head in 1649 and then for his granddaughter Mary to treacherously usurp her father in 1688.

    The Stuarts continued to rule for many years to come despite the inter family spat.



    Anne was the last Stuart monarch, reigning as recently as 1714. In fact she died almost exactly 300 years ago.
    De Jure the last Stuart monarch was King Henry IX who died in 1807. He was the last surviving grandson of James VII/II of Scotland/England.

    Isn’t there a German princeling somewhere who has a Jacobite claim?
    Some Jacobites favour the claim of HRH Duke of Bavaria as titular King Francis II

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz,_Duke_of_Bavaria
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,912
    Neil said:

    Populus LAB 347 CON 256 LD 21 Other 26 (ukpr)

    Ed is crap is PM. As with every poll this weekend EICIPM

    If only the election had been held this weekend!
    As with every poll this weekend,week.month, last month etc etc EICIPM

    9 Months and 10 days to go
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    edited July 2014

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Mr. Eagles, for once, you should emulate Caesar and show contempt for republicanism.

    Monarchy's delightful. The alternative would be having godawful presidents, to paraphrase Francis Uqurthart.

    I like her Majesty.

    But the Divine Rights of Kings. nah.

    Terrible principle.

    I really do worry about how terrible Prince Charles as Monarch will be.
    However bad he might be it won't be anywhere near as awful as a republic. We did try one once, remember, it was not a success.

    As for the Devine Right of Kings the English threw out that nasty imported idea (quite against the English tradition) when it threw out the Stuarts. Do try and keep, up Mr Eagles.
    The demise of the Divine Right of Kings was effectively signalled by Charles I having the misfortune to mislay his head in 1649 and then for his granddaughter Mary to treacherously usurp her father in 1688.

    The Stuarts continued to rule for many years to come despite the inter family spat.



    Anne was the last Stuart monarch, reigning as recently as 1714. In fact she died almost exactly 300 years ago.
    De Jure the last Stuart monarch was King Henry IX who died in 1807. He was the last surviving grandson of James VII/II of Scotland/England.

    Isn’t there a German princeling somewhere who has a Jacobite claim?
    Yep, Franz of Bavaria, but he has never been an active claimant.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,128
    edited July 2014

    Will there actually be a referendum? Or will it be delayed until 2018?
    And how will that play here in UK?

    Yes, there will absolutely, under all circumstances, without any glimmer of wriggle room, be a referendum by the end of 2017, assuming of course we have a Conservative majority government. If our EU friends haven't been able to get their act together by then, the British people will have to decide, when they vote, whether that makes it too risky to vote to stay In or not.

    If there's a minority government, then of course it's impossible for the Conservatives to guarantee anything, since by definition non-Conservative MPs will be able to block it should they so wish.
    Is not the time then rapidly approaching when we are told what these negotiations will be about? A lot more definition?

    I suppose what could happen, in the event of a minority Tory government, is they come back to the Commons saying the results aren’t what we want but the rest of the House unites to say that they are!
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    As with every poll this weekend,week.month, last month etc etc EICIPM

    9 Months and 10 days to go

    Yes, plenty of time for a substantial shift. Around this time in 2009, the Conservative lead in the polls varied from 14 points (YouGov, 30 July) to 18 (ComRes, 26 July).
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Is not the time then rapidly approaching when we are told what these negotiations will be about? A lot more definition?

    Yes, I expect there will be quite a lot on that in the lead-up to the election, but obviously it's impossible to predict what the outcome of any negotations will be in advance.

    In any case, since the Kippers who are most exercised about the issue don't believe anything will be achieved and wouldn't change their minds whatever happens, it defaults to a straightforward In/Out referendum as far as UKIP are concerned. You'd have thought therefore that they would be delighted.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Is not the time then rapidly approaching when we are told what these negotiations will be about? A lot more definition?

    Yes, I expect there will be quite a lot on that in the lead-up to the election, but obviously it's impossible to predict what the outcome of any negotations will be in advance.

    In any case, since the Kippers who are most exercised about the issue don't believe anything will be achieved and wouldn't change their minds whatever happens, it defaults to a straightforward In/Out referendum as far as UKIP are concerned. You'd have thought therefore that they would be delighted.
    Cameron has made a speech about it and also wrote a fairly detailed article in the Telegraph. There will be no satisfying the doi hard kippers but I nthink the giost of what it will all be about is fairly well know. Plus we have the position of where the EU wants to go from here, which will revolve around the Eurozone.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    NP wrote, inter alia.

    "But the Conservative position is to have a referendum in 2017 on this supposed treaty (which won't be ready yet) anticipating giving Britain various powers back (which won't happen to any significant degree) based on a British Government wish-list (which the Government declines to disclose).”

    Let us assume that a Tory government in 2015 (minority or otherwise) produces a wish list for powers to be repatriated. The rest of the EU says OK, we’ll talk about them. Many of the iissues prove contentious and many of them have implications for some of our colleagues which the British hadn;’t considered, which they want to consider in depth. By mid 2017 some agreement has been reached on some issues, but by no means all, and indeed the British Government itself is beginning to wish it hadn’t included some items.
    Will there actually be a referendum? Or will it be delayed until 2018?
    And how will that play here in UK?

    NP is being disingenuous.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    ''De Jure the last Stuart monarch was King Henry IX who died in 1807. He was the last surviving grandson of James VII/II of Scotland/England.''

    The last Stuart Monarch was James II. No one selse has any claim as the rightful King after him was William III and Mary II.
    All else is preposterous.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618

    ''De Jure the last Stuart monarch was King Henry IX who died in 1807. He was the last surviving grandson of James VII/II of Scotland/England.''

    The last Stuart Monarch was James II. No one selse has any claim as the rightful King after him was William III and Mary II.
    All else is preposterous.

    You forgot James' second daughter Queen Anne (1702-1714). As she died childless, the succession passed to her closest Protestant relative, George of Hanover.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    TGOHF said:

    So the co-op could run our railways?

    Labour will offer cooperatives and mutually-owned companies the chance to run Britain's rail services.

    Senior figures in Labour's transport team will suggest in Glasgow on Monday that employees and passengers could take a far greater role in running the railways, including bidding for specific franchises such as ScotRail.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/28/labour-co-operatives-mutuals-railway-franchises
    Crystal Meth available in the buffet car ?
    I wonder if any of those senior figures know how much it costs to put in a bid and how much it would cost to even form an entity capable of putting together a bid. File that one under daft political ideas that haven't been thought through but espoused for effect.

    Just like every other policy initiative that Labour have put forward, really. No substance to them, they fall apart under the lightest of scrutiny.


    Very good points. Another daft idea from labour. A gimmick from someone who pretends to decry gimmicks. But that is Labour - all pretrence
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    ''De Jure the last Stuart monarch was King Henry IX who died in 1807. He was the last surviving grandson of James VII/II of Scotland/England.''

    The last Stuart Monarch was James II. No one selse has any claim as the rightful King after him was William III and Mary II.
    All else is preposterous.

    You forgot James' second daughter Queen Anne (1702-1714). As she died childless, the succession passed to her closest Protestant relative, George of Hanover.
    Avast, Cap'n Doc. That Queen Anne was a Stuart, largely passes under the radar, which considering her size is a remarkable feat (her coffin was reputedly the largest ever made for a British Monarch). Nonetheless, her accession to the throne was by act of parliament, as was the fact that George I succeeded her. George, of course, did not succeed because he was the old bat's closest protestant relative, but because of the Act of Settlement 1701 which settled the Crown on the Electress Sophia of Hanover, a grand daughter of James I and a niece of Charles I, and her issue. As you will be aware Sophia joined the choir invisible a few months before Queen Anne lumbered off the stage, so Sophia's boy got, as they say, the gig.

    Belike
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