TimB Good to see despite difficulties our library service still striving hard to provide an excellent service
If by 'our' library service you mean Gwinnett County's, then I concur....
On the unrelated subject of which ads appear on PB, I have 'best cure for nail fungus' with cringing photos, several urgings to buy gold from 2 different suppliers, and how to save $160 on a set of four tires.
To the best of my recollection I have never searched for any of them.....
I wanted to get a copy of Philippa Langley's book on discovering Richard III. I logged on yesterday at noon and found that the county has 2 copies, both at branches about 15 miles away.
I ordered one copy to be delivered to my local branch.
Today at lunchtime I get an email saying it's waiting for me. So at 2.30 I have my copy!
On that subject, I think I have mentioned before that I would love to read "a book of dreams" by Peter Reich... Has anybody read it, or knows of a library that has a copy
Bit expensive for me to buy a copy at the moment
Mr Isam, Have you tried just bimbling into your local library and asking them to get it for you? Might sound a bit of a simple solution but I have found my local library terribly good at laying their hands on books for me even ones that are not in the West Sussex Library Catalogue.
During the top of the TDF coverage today Phil Liggett and Paul Sherwen announced that the crowds during the two day Yorkshire Grand Depart were the largest in Tour history.
I'm not sure what that says about Essex and London, but in Essex the crowds were noticeably much smaller, although it was a work day.
HurstLlama I do generally agree on Assad, he is better than ISIS and Parliament was sensible to vote down military action. There may have been more of a case to arm the FSA who are at least fighting ISIS as well as Assad
Some recent reports suggest that the Free Syrian Army in what was once eastern Syria have been giving their bay'ah to the caliphate. We should stay well clear of these sectarian wars.
OGH: "To me what’s interesting is that he appears to be moving up the scale to take in seats where the Tories have bigger majorities than those seats which he has polled twice in his first two rounds. This makes a lot of sense."
Really? Both OGH and Lord Ashcroft appear to be convinced that Labour are set to win a significant number of seats from the Tories. Yet based on very recent polls, it is likely that Stephen Fisher's next projection is likely to show the Tories winning more than the 307 seats they won in 2010. On this basis, perhaps Lord Ashcroft should also be moving DOWN the scale to take into account those marginal seats which are winnable FROM Labour.
That'd be interesting too. His first survey did that, and found Labour were doing rather better in their marginals, while in Tory marginals the position was broadly similar to UNS (a finding that's now been repeated). Colleagues in Labour marginals report very little Tory activity so far , and FWIW we think Central Office is trying to secure what it's got as its first priority before committing much elsewhere, except maybe in Lib/Con marginals (on which I've no information). But others will know more. Who's in a Lab/Con marginal here, and are you hearing much from the Tories?
On Richard N's point, the sample size from the marginal polls (1000 each) is as good as the national polls - in fact slightly better since the total number is smaller. Whether they're getting the demography right as they claim, who knows, but presumably it's no harder than doing it nationally. It does take longer, though, which is presumably one reason why he polls over a longer period.
What are people in the marginals saying about Ed Miliband.. or are they too polite to call it as it is?
I'm sceptical that you're genuinely looking for a reply, but it's that the subject of Ed doesn't come up much either way. In general we hear about 20 comments on the local candidates for every one on the national leaders. I'm not sure that's typical of all seats, though.
Idly curious in return - what made you choose the name SquareRoot?
I wanted to get a copy of Philippa Langley's book on discovering Richard III. I logged on yesterday at noon and found that the county has 2 copies, both at branches about 15 miles away.
I ordered one copy to be delivered to my local branch.
Today at lunchtime I get an email saying it's waiting for me. So at 2.30 I have my copy!
On that subject, I think I have mentioned before that I would love to read "a book of dreams" by Peter Reich... Has anybody read it, or knows of a library that has a copy
Bit expensive for me to buy a copy at the moment
The good news - shipping is $3.99
The bad news - you don't want to know :-(
Didn't he also write Shelter Island? I know the place well and have friends who live there
Ooohhhh - good news: it's only $82 in paperback :-)
I wanted to get a copy of Philippa Langley's book on discovering Richard III. I logged on yesterday at noon and found that the county has 2 copies, both at branches about 15 miles away.
I ordered one copy to be delivered to my local branch.
Today at lunchtime I get an email saying it's waiting for me. So at 2.30 I have my copy!
On that subject, I think I have mentioned before that I would love to read "a book of dreams" by Peter Reich... Has anybody read it, or knows of a library that has a copy
Bit expensive for me to buy a copy at the moment
Mr Isam, Have you tried just bimbling into your local library and asking them to get it for you? Might sound a bit of a simple solution but I have found my local library terribly good at laying their hands on books for me even ones that are not in the West Sussex Library Catalogue.
I wanted to get a copy of Philippa Langley's book on discovering Richard III. I logged on yesterday at noon and found that the county has 2 copies, both at branches about 15 miles away.
I ordered one copy to be delivered to my local branch.
Today at lunchtime I get an email saying it's waiting for me. So at 2.30 I have my copy!
On that subject, I think I have mentioned before that I would love to read "a book of dreams" by Peter Reich... Has anybody read it, or knows of a library that has a copy
Bit expensive for me to buy a copy at the moment
The good news - shipping is $3.99
The bad news - you don't want to know :-(
Didn't he also write Shelter Island? I know the place well and have friends who live there
Ooohhhh - good news: it's only $82 in paperback :-)
You would have thought there'd be can 80s re issue because of Kate Bush and Cloudbusting, but alas no... Seems such an interesting story, but an darned expensive one to read!
Ismael X I see Australia leads the medals table with 65 and 24 golds, followed by England with 54 and 21 golds and Scotland with 67 medals and 11 golds. Separately Australia leads, but together England +Scotland tops the table, let alone adding NI and Wales. Any better argument for Better Together? http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/
Does a united Germany win more Olympic medals than when there were separate East German and West German teams?
The danger with doing these simple aggregates is that a "Unified" team would have fewer eligible athletes for any given individual race or contest.
That's a good point - at least 4 "bits" of former Yugoslavia have at some point qualified for the World Cup finals.
One further thing, you mentioned Syria. The best thing we could have done in there for the good of all Syrians would have been to support Assad from the get go. A great many lives would have been saved, ethnic minorities protected and the disaster currently unfolding in Iraq avoided if foreign policy was decided from the head rather than the heart of some overgrown student politicians who have been allowed to play in the real world rather than the student union debating society.
Assad is a nasty dictator who ran a multi-ethnic, multi-religious country. A country in which, provided you kept you nose out of politics you could go about your business and religious practices at will. Just like Hong Kong in the old days, in fact.
Easterross If UKIP were not a presence that may be right, but because they are still likely to win more votes than in 2010 that factor alone will be make it hard for Tories to win any more seats off Labour than they already hold
LIAMT All the more reason for arming them earlier, as Hillary Clinton has stated in her new book. They are now being squeezed between ISIS and Assad, but declared war on ISIS too earlier this year to try and rally Western support, to little effect from Obama, Cameron and Hollande
I'm aware that the MODERATORS have a tougher time at weekends but I regret to say this is one of the worst Sunday threads that PB has published, sadly undermined by an abusive troll.
Mr. W. you seem to have a direct line to OGH. Perhaps the next time you are chatting you might ask him why one of our number is, week after week, allowed to get away with abusing fellow posters to an extent that would have got anyone else banned months ago.
Actually we all have a direct line to Mike and the MODERATORS and I certainly have no special access and nor should I.
That said there are a number of PBers (The Old Contemptibles) from the early days and a few others that have a modicum of benign influence.
Mike has always tried to follow a principle of light touch and at times he and the MODERATORS have shown the patience of saints with some posters and have only issued bans on infrequent occasions and often for short periods.
Trolling is a problem, the more so when it simply comprises inane, repetitive abuse and it damages the reputation and standing of PB when it gets out of hand.
Mr. W., a while ago a poster said something about you that you took grave exception to. Said poster was, I understand, banned once you had made your displeasure known. All I ask is that you use some of that same "benign influence" with a view to reining in the continuous stream, of sometimes foul mouthed, insults that one poster seems to be able to get away with.
Numerous posters have complained about this situation in the past but have seemingly been ignored by OGH and the moderators. You seem to have more clout, hence my request.
Clearly two different cases.
In the first an individual made an significant error of judgement in the heat of the moment, subsequently apologized in good faith and we all moved on without recrimination.
Trolling provides OGH and MODERATORS with more of a problem especially when 24 hour oversight is not possible and the site runs on instant publishing.
Mike is also extremely tolerant and correctly IMHO prefers a liberal light touch as default rather than reach for the big stick.
The judgement call comes when OGH has to decide whether insidious trolling is having such a deleterious effect on PB that light touch is inappropriate for some posters.
IMO that time has come.
Others outwith these threads should make their views known directly to Mike through the side bar contact should they feel the situation so warrants.
Ha Ha Ha , you could not make it up fake Scottish Lord Fauntleroy impersonator tries to get someone banned because he is a weak jessie. Lets see if Mike owns the blog or if it is a fake Tory plonker that runs the show.
NOA But a unified GB football team would have benefited from the likes of Gareth Bale, Ryan Giggs, Craig Burley, Wayne Rooney, Michael Owen etc playing together. Indeed, the footballers do not even have the British Lions as the Rugby players too, the GB team in 2012 was the first instance this occurred I believe
I wanted to get a copy of Philippa Langley's book on discovering Richard III. I logged on yesterday at noon and found that the county has 2 copies, both at branches about 15 miles away.
I ordered one copy to be delivered to my local branch.
Today at lunchtime I get an email saying it's waiting for me. So at 2.30 I have my copy!
On that subject, I think I have mentioned before that I would love to read "a book of dreams" by Peter Reich... Has anybody read it, or knows of a library that has a copy
Bit expensive for me to buy a copy at the moment
I have just successfully downloaded a pdf of it from alfalib dot com which you will find by searching "a book of dreams peter reich pdf".
The legality and safety of this exercise is not, of course, guaranteed.
I wanted to get a copy of Philippa Langley's book on discovering Richard III. I logged on yesterday at noon and found that the county has 2 copies, both at branches about 15 miles away.
I ordered one copy to be delivered to my local branch.
Today at lunchtime I get an email saying it's waiting for me. So at 2.30 I have my copy!
On that subject, I think I have mentioned before that I would love to read "a book of dreams" by Peter Reich... Has anybody read it, or knows of a library that has a copy
Bit expensive for me to buy a copy at the moment
I have just successfully downloaded a pdf of it from alfalib dot com which you will find by searching "a book of dreams peter reich pdf".
The legality and safety of this exercise is not, of course, guaranteed.
Do people twist bottle tops with their 'wrong' hand?
I hurt my left hand playing football yesterday and it's just taken me 15 mins to open a bottle with my right hand even though I am right handed and never really use my left at all... Except for opening bottles it seems
Had a very interesting chat with a wife of a taxi driver in London yesterday. She was a firm Boris supporter (and Tories) but won't be voting for them next May. She was absolutely furious with the impact that Uber are having in Central London over the lack of a level playing field with the licensed trade. It was noticeable in May just how much better Labour was doing in London than elsewhere. Cabbies being angry and discussing their dissatisfaction with all their customers I would think has a wider impact on the perception of the Tories in London than just the cabbies themselves.
Had a very interesting chat with a wife of a taxi driver in London yesterday. She was a firm Boris supporter (and Tories) but won't be voting for them next May. She was absolutely furious with the impact that Uber are having in Central London over the lack of a level playing field with the licensed trade. It was noticeable in May just how much better Labour was doing in London than elsewhere. Cabbies being angry and discussing their dissatisfaction with all their customers I would think has a wider impact on the perception of the Tories in London than just the cabbies themselves.
You can't make an omelette etc etc.
Uber is fantastic and is breaking a monopoly and creating competition. Those on the right should welcome that progress with open arms.
Do people twist bottle tops with their 'wrong' hand?
I hurt my left hand playing football yesterday and it's just taken me 15 mins to open a bottle with my right hand even though I am right handed and never really use my left at all... Except for opening bottles it seems
During the top of the TDF coverage today Phil Liggett and Paul Sherwen announced that the crowds during the two day Yorkshire Grand Depart were the largest in Tour history.
I'm not sure what that says about Essex and London, but in Essex the crowds were noticeably much smaller, although it was a work day.
Really enjoyable tour in spite of everything being largely sewn up for Nibali from a long way out. A shame we didn't get to see Contador v Froome v Nibali but really good for the French with the emergence of Thibault Pinot and Romain Bardet. Not sure how long JC Peraud will be around, but a terrific achievement coming 2nd at the age of 37 and coming from Cyclocross.
On Richard N's point, the sample size from the marginal polls (1000 each) is as good as the national polls - in fact slightly better since the total number is smaller.
Yes, but the point still remains. On a (gross) sample size of a thousand, you are typically ending up with around 500 after eliminating Don't Knows/Won't Say and doing the demographic weighting. That gives you a purely statistical margin of error of plus or minus 4% - even if you get a full sample of 1000 giving a response, it's still plus or minus 3%. That's probably not enough accuracy to distinguish whether the swing in Seat A is likely to be bigger than the swing in Seat B.
It's exactly the same problem as looking at successive national polls. Is a drop in the Labour lead from one month to another of (say) 6% to 1% meaningful or just noise? You can't really tell. In a marginals poll, you've got the same problem when comparing two different seats.
To make it worse, there's the added difficulty of knowing how to weight the sample for that particular poll.
I'd be very interested to know if anyone has gone back and researched the usefulness of marginals polls in practice.
Ed Miliband will become prime minister if Ukip wins more than nine per cent of the vote in next year’s general election, Labour advisers have calculated.
Mr Miliband’s strategists have calculated that a significant vote for the Eurosceptic party will cost the Conservatives enough seats to put Labour in office, The Telegraph has learnt.
Senior Labour figures say that, despite losses to Ukip in recent local elections, Mr Miliband’s team believe their party has a lot to gain from its advances and the final result in May’s general election may hinge on how Mr Farage's party performs.
Ha Ha Ha , you could not make it up fake Scottish Lord Fauntleroy impersonator tries to get someone banned because he is a weak jessie. Lets see if Mike owns the blog or if it is a fake Tory plonker that runs the show.
Actually, Mr. G., Jack W was replying to a post of mine. So if you want to have a pop then I should be your target and not him. Before you do let me say a couple of things.
From our previous exchanges and from some of your conversations with others I am fairly certain you are an erudite, sensible, gentleman of mature years and man who is more than capable of holding his own in a discussion on any subject. I am therefore completely at a loss as to why you spend so much time posting nothing more than vulgar abuse. Perhaps it stated as a piss-take, a joke within a joke, I don't know. What I am stone fecking certain of is that it has gone on too long. What might have been, on a good day and in the right light, amusing has now become tiresome and insulting. I ask only that we see some more of the real, thoughtful Mr. G. and a great deal less of the boring, foul mouthed, insulting rant-merchant. You have for reasons that I don't understand been allowed to get away with levels of abuse that would have seen other posters banned months ago. Maybe quitting while you are ahead would be a good move.
Do people twist bottle tops with their 'wrong' hand?
I hurt my left hand playing football yesterday and it's just taken me 15 mins to open a bottle with my right hand even though I am right handed and never really use my left at all... Except for opening bottles it seems
Hunchman According to today's yougov London is the only region in the UK other than Scotland where the Tory vote is higher than in 2010 (albeit by only 0.5%), that Labour's vote has risen higher does not negate that fact
Do people twist bottle tops with their 'wrong' hand?
I hurt my left hand playing football yesterday and it's just taken me 15 mins to open a bottle with my right hand even though I am right handed and never really use my left at all... Except for opening bottles it seems
During the top of the TDF coverage today Phil Liggett and Paul Sherwen announced that the crowds during the two day Yorkshire Grand Depart were the largest in Tour history.
I'm not sure what that says about Essex and London, but in Essex the crowds were noticeably much smaller, although it was a work day.
Really enjoyable tour in spite of everything being largely sewn up for Nibali from a long way out. A shame we didn't get to see Contador v Froome v Nibali but really good for the French with the emergence of Thibault Pinot and Romain Bardet. Not sure how long JC Peraud will be around, but a terrific achievement coming 2nd at the age of 37 and coming from Cyclocross.
Not sure if I mentioned it but the Tour passed my boyhood home on the first day. I was able to get a great photo from the helicopter HD TV picture.
Hunchman According to today's yougov London is the only region in the UK other than Scotland where the Tory vote is higher than in 2010 (albeit by only 0.5%), that Labour's vote has risen higher does not negate that fact
Interesting, LibDem to Labour swing alone will do a lot of damage to the Tories in London. Plenty of marginals there will go anyway given the generally unfavourable demographics for the Tories in London - Enfield North, Harrow East, Ilford North, Brentford & Isleworth all seats that spring to mind.
As for Scotland, all bets are off for May next year until we've seen the dust settle after the independence referendum - I don't think there is much point hypothesising until we get to around November.
Do people twist bottle tops with their 'wrong' hand?
I hurt my left hand playing football yesterday and it's just taken me 15 mins to open a bottle with my right hand even though I am right handed and never really use my left at all... Except for opening bottles it seems
Do people twist bottle tops with their 'wrong' hand?
I hurt my left hand playing football yesterday and it's just taken me 15 mins to open a bottle with my right hand even though I am right handed and never really use my left at all... Except for opening bottles it seems
hunchman Some Tory seats will go, but the Tories did relatively badly in 2010 in London, failing to take seats like Westminster North and Hammersmith for instance they had hopes of taking and Labour was ahead in London even with Brown. The Tories are helped in both Scotland and London too by the relative weakness of UKIP there
I agree we need to wait until the referendum result, but I would love to see Salmond's face if not only does Scotland vote No, but it swings to the Tories next year who gain say 3 or 4 MPs against the National trend
What a daft suggestion of Clegg's to strip Russia of the 2018 world cup. Its never going to happen, just as the IOC were never going to budge on Moscow in 1980. I look forward to seeing the revamp of the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow - that's a spectacular sports complex to visit on the SW edge of the centre, with some lovely parkland around it.
On Richard N's point, the sample size from the marginal polls (1000 each) is as good as the national polls - in fact slightly better since the total number is smaller.
Yes, but the point still remains. On a (gross) sample size of a thousand, you are typically ending up with around 500 after eliminating Don't Knows/Won't Say and doing the demographic weighting. That gives you a purely statistical margin of error of plus or minus 4% - even if you get a full sample of 1000 giving a response, it's still plus or minus 3%. That's probably not enough accuracy to distinguish whether the swing in Seat A is likely to be bigger than the swing in Seat B.
It's exactly the same problem as looking at successive national polls. Is a drop in the Labour lead from one month to another of (say) 6% to 1% meaningful or just noise? You can't really tell. In a marginals poll, you've got the same problem when comparing two different seats.
To make it worse, there's the added difficulty of knowing how to weight the sample for that particular poll.
I'd be very interested to know if anyone has gone back and researched the usefulness of marginals polls in practice.
Yes, I agree that one can't sensibly get really excited by a single poll (though it's tempting when one's actually fighting the seat being polled), but a clutch of polls in crucial seats has told us something important: it appears that there is neither a significant Conservative incumbency bonus nor a significant Labour edge, both of which have been widely speculated in the recent past. Also, when the whole group move together, as with the latest batch suggesting a Lab->UKIP swing compared with the first batch, it's reasonable to assume that it's not just noise.
GIN: my guess is that tomorrow's polls will show a range of results around a 3-point Labour lead. Might include a crossover, or not...
hucks67 Despite being ringfenced and having billions thrown at it, clearly reform, not more cash, is needed
Or perhaps, over the last few decades, and governments, including this one under Lansley, the NHS has had more reform than it can cope with.
Then the staff at the NHS need to hang to their hats because more reform is coming. We have a growing population, we have more and more elderly people, we have new treatments and drugs that are more expensive, we have only a finite amount of money. This is not a matter of politics, though no doubt some will try and portray it as such, but of reality.
We spoke on here the other day of the "too difficult box", the NHS needs to be taken out of that and a cross-party, long-term plan agreed.
DecrepitJohnL Eventually we are going to have to have to encourage those who can pay for it to take out insurance with free healthcare focused on those with the lowest incomes
hunchman Some Tory seats will go, but the Tories did relatively badly in 2010 in London, failing to take seats like Westminster North and Hammersmith for instance they had hopes of taking and Labour was ahead in London even with Brown. The Tories are helped in both Scotland and London too by the relative weakness of UKIP there
I agree we need to wait until the referendum result, but I would love to see Salmond's face if not only does Scotland vote No, but it swings to the Tories next year who gain say 3 or 4 MPs against the National trend
Well from memory the lady who was the Conservative PPC in Westminster North didn't exactly cover herself in glory in the 2010 campaign. And I certainly don't see the Tories winning Hammersmith any time soon given the demographic changes there.
I'm not sure what Southampton are up to, they are selling everyone.
Very peculiar... Money laundering?!?!
Pelle. The new striker from Feyenoord was different class in Holland, almost a goal a game, and the other new signing Tadic is meant to be quality too, so that's lambert and Lallana replaced... Big ask to build a whole new team from scratch though. Koeman a bit patchy as a manager too
I'm not sure what Southampton are up to, they are selling everyone.
Very peculiar... Money laundering?!?!
Pelle. The new striker from Feyenoord was different class in Holland, almost a goal a game, and the other new signing Tadic is meant to be quality too, so that's lambert and Lallana replaced... Big ask to build a whole new team from scratch though. Koeman a bit patchy as a manager too
I think the owner's daughter is looking to recoup her father's investment.
hunchman Not just those two, seats like Eltham and Harrow West should also really have gone on a UNS
How could I forget my old stomping ground of Eltham in 1997! I'd like to think that I had a part of play in a very active Tory campaign that year in limiting the Labour swing, even though it was still around 12% IIRC, but less than the 14/16% swings in London on that crazy night. As for Harrow West, that has moved so far demographically away from the Tories since 1992, probably along with Brent North the best example of a seat drifting leftward over the past 20 years in the whole country, although Jim Murphy and Renfrewshire East may come close on that score!
a clutch of polls in crucial seats has told us something important: it appears that there is neither a significant Conservative incumbency bonus nor a significant Labour edge, both of which have been widely speculated in the recent past. Also, when the whole group move together, as with the latest batch suggesting a Lab->UKIP swing compared with the first batch, it's reasonable to assume that it's not just noise.
On the incumbency question, I'd be interested to see if the marginals polls picked up any such effect last time (it was a real effect at the election, and quite large). My guess is that they didn't, but I don't really know.
On your second point there, yes, but does it tell us any more than the national polls?
Again we need someone to do some serious analysis of the marginals polls done last time.
Ashcroft would find it cheaper to simply buy votes wouldn't he? That would also fit very well with the whole recreate the 19th Century thrust of Tory policy.
Cabbies being angry and discussing their dissatisfaction with all their customers I would think has a wider impact on the perception of the Tories in London than just the cabbies themselves.
Has there ever been a time when cabbies were happy and discussion their satisfaction with all their customers?
Seems like since they're going to be moaning about something in any case, the government would be happy that it's something transparently self-interested like better, cheaper, more convenient competition.
a clutch of polls in crucial seats has told us something important: it appears that there is neither a significant Conservative incumbency bonus nor a significant Labour edge, both of which have been widely speculated in the recent past. Also, when the whole group move together, as with the latest batch suggesting a Lab->UKIP swing compared with the first batch, it's reasonable to assume that it's not just noise.
On the incumbency question, I'd be interested to see if the marginals polls picked up any such effect last time (it was a real effect at the election, and quite large). My guess is that they didn't, but I don't really know.
On your second point there, yes, but does it tell us any more than the national polls?
Again we need someone to do some serious analysis of the marginals polls done last time.
Marginals polls became more accurate closer to election day such as the Ipsos-Mori polls in 2010, which were largely accurate
Unfortunately pol home have deleted also the mahoosive marginals polls of 2008 and 2009 data tables, however by my estimation, those marginals were showing slightly larger Con leads than the national polling was.
For example in July 2008 the Tories were on course for 399 seats and Lab 160.
A year later, it was 360 seats for the Tories and 199 seats for Lab
Cabbies being angry and discussing their dissatisfaction with all their customers I would think has a wider impact on the perception of the Tories in London than just the cabbies themselves.
Has there ever been a time when cabbies were happy and discussion their satisfaction with all their customers?
Seems like since they're going to be moaning about something in any case, the government would be happy that it's something transparently self-interested like better, cheaper, more convenient competition.
They always like to complain but it does seem that Uber is a particularly sore point of contention.
Off topic but I'd just like to say how much I'm enjoying watching the 'Home Nations' perform at the Commonwealth Games. Gutted this morning to see England lose to Scotland in the Bowls Pairs semi but I'll be cheering for the Scots in the Final. The Worlds/Olympics will be poorer if Team GB lack the Scots so I hope they vote no. (Bowls isn't in those events but when I watch sport it is GB first and then where did they say that person came from).
Ms Cooper is making a speech about banning the use of Community Resolution in the case of domestic violence.
Now why would Labour be opposing a system they were perfectly happy to see in place during their last time in office?
Happy to support a policy when they were in power and now opposing it? Opportunistic or what?
And, of course, all the pre-announced sound-bites make absolutely no reference to domestic violence towards men. And whilst this is not as prevalent as violence towards women, it is by no means an insignificant problem. Indeed it is, in many ways, a far more hidden issue - and thus deserving of greater public awareness.
But that doesn't fit the narrative. Domestic violence is wrong. Indeed any violence is wrong. But it is wrong to suggest that only men are the perpetrators and only women are the victims. Cooper's attitude and language undermines the position of all victims. There is no place for sexism of any sort in this area.
Under the guidelines for Community Resolution, the victim must (usually) consent to it being used to deal with that specific incident. And whilst I can see that some victims might feel pressured, others might be perfectly willing to proceed. A properly trained officer will have a feeling if undue influence was being used. To remove this valuable tool from the Criminal Justice system for one particular category of offences is just wrong. It is cheap political point-scoring and not the basis for a sound Justice system.
Ms Cooper is making a speech about banning the use of Community Resolution in the case of domestic violence.
Now why would Labour be opposing a system they were perfectly happy to see in place during their last time in office?
Happy to support a policy when they were in power and now opposing it? Opportunistic or what?
We generally expect oppositions to change their policies in opposition. If the voters had wanted to carry on with the same policies they wouldn't have voted them out.
a clutch of polls in crucial seats has told us something important: it appears that there is neither a significant Conservative incumbency bonus nor a significant Labour edge, both of which have been widely speculated in the recent past. Also, when the whole group move together, as with the latest batch suggesting a Lab->UKIP swing compared with the first batch, it's reasonable to assume that it's not just noise.
On the incumbency question, I'd be interested to see if the marginals polls picked up any such effect last time (it was a real effect at the election, and quite large). My guess is that they didn't, but I don't really know.
On your second point there, yes, but does it tell us any more than the national polls?
Again we need someone to do some serious analysis of the marginals polls done last time.
Marginals polls became more accurate closer to election day such as the Ipsos-Mori polls in 2010, which were largely accurate
Unfortunately pol home have deleted also the mahoosive marginals polls of 2008 and 2009 data tables, however by my estimation, those marginals were showing slightly larger Con leads than the national polling was.
For example in July 2008 the Tories were on course for 399 seats and Lab 160.
A year later, it was 360 seats for the Tories and 199 seats for Lab
But what we are seeing from Lord Ashcroft now is on a totally different scale from anything that happened before any other general election.
We are now getting full 1,000 sample constituency in the key marginals which cannot in any way be compared to the marginals polling before GE2010 where the number of those polled in each seat was very small.
But why should Ashcroft move on to LAB held seats when the last time he did so in May Labour was holding on with increased majorities. Once the Tories have solid 4-5% national leads there might be a case for moving in that direction. At the moment they don't.
Comments
On the unrelated subject of which ads appear on PB, I have 'best cure for nail fungus' with cringing photos, several urgings to buy gold from 2 different suppliers, and how to save $160 on a set of four tires.
To the best of my recollection I have never searched for any of them.....
During the top of the TDF coverage today Phil Liggett and Paul Sherwen announced that the crowds during the two day Yorkshire Grand Depart were the largest in Tour history.
I'm not sure what that says about Essex and London, but in Essex the crowds were noticeably much smaller, although it was a work day.
On Richard N's point, the sample size from the marginal polls (1000 each) is as good as the national polls - in fact slightly better since the total number is smaller. Whether they're getting the demography right as they claim, who knows, but presumably it's no harder than doing it nationally. It does take longer, though, which is presumably one reason why he polls over a longer period. I'm sceptical that you're genuinely looking for a reply, but it's that the subject of Ed doesn't come up much either way. In general we hear about 20 comments on the local candidates for every one on the national leaders. I'm not sure that's typical of all seats, though.
Idly curious in return - what made you choose the name SquareRoot?
Idly curious in return - what made you choose the name SquareRoot?
Maybe he likes to multiply by himself :-)
Lets see if Mike owns the blog or if it is a fake Tory plonker that runs the show.
The legality and safety of this exercise is not, of course, guaranteed.
Would give Tories more money to throw at seats they might win, while stopping labour pulling away
Hope we enjoy it. Supposed to be wonderful
Do people twist bottle tops with their 'wrong' hand?
I hurt my left hand playing football yesterday and it's just taken me 15 mins to open a bottle with my right hand even though I am right handed and never really use my left at all... Except for opening bottles it seems
Uber is fantastic and is breaking a monopoly and creating competition.
Those on the right should welcome that progress with open arms.
http://www.brainmapping.org/shared/Edinburgh.php
It's exactly the same problem as looking at successive national polls. Is a drop in the Labour lead from one month to another of (say) 6% to 1% meaningful or just noise? You can't really tell. In a marginals poll, you've got the same problem when comparing two different seats.
To make it worse, there's the added difficulty of knowing how to weight the sample for that particular poll.
I'd be very interested to know if anyone has gone back and researched the usefulness of marginals polls in practice.
Anybody think we'll get #CrossoverMonday in at least one poll?
Mr Miliband’s strategists have calculated that a significant vote for the Eurosceptic party will cost the Conservatives enough seats to put Labour in office, The Telegraph has learnt.
Senior Labour figures say that, despite losses to Ukip in recent local elections, Mr Miliband’s team believe their party has a lot to gain from its advances and the final result in May’s general election may hinge on how Mr Farage's party performs.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10994493/Ukip-voters-will-make-Ed-Miliband-Prime-Minister-Labour-claims.html
From our previous exchanges and from some of your conversations with others I am fairly certain you are an erudite, sensible, gentleman of mature years and man who is more than capable of holding his own in a discussion on any subject. I am therefore completely at a loss as to why you spend so much time posting nothing more than vulgar abuse. Perhaps it stated as a piss-take, a joke within a joke, I don't know. What I am stone fecking certain of is that it has gone on too long. What might have been, on a good day and in the right light, amusing has now become tiresome and insulting. I ask only that we see some more of the real, thoughtful Mr. G. and a great deal less of the boring, foul mouthed, insulting rant-merchant. You have for reasons that I don't understand been allowed to get away with levels of abuse that would have seen other posters banned months ago. Maybe quitting while you are ahead would be a good move.
OK, I have had my say, over to you.
Maybe someone should do a study of handedness to political orientation, then we can find out how Righty UKIP really are.
Gone balls deep on Blackpool to be relegated from the Championship.
Which I think is free money considering what is going on at the club
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/blackpool/10992919/Blackpool-have-only-eight-players.html
Odds here
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/relegation
As for Scotland, all bets are off for May next year until we've seen the dust settle after the independence referendum - I don't think there is much point hypothesising until we get to around November.
A couple of minutes ago I just finished the final episode of season 4 Game of Thrones on the laptop. Very impressive. Now for the books...
Basically I'm shit with my left hand or foot!
Except twisting bottle tops
I agree we need to wait until the referendum result, but I would love to see Salmond's face if not only does Scotland vote No, but it swings to the Tories next year who gain say 3 or 4 MPs against the National trend
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2707322/Heads-sticks-Sick-ISIS-video-emerges-showing-50-beheaded-Syrian-soldiers-impaled-poles-held-aloft-Raqqa-city.html
27/07/2014 21:32
Did Barcelona pay Liverpool for Suarez in Southampton vouchers?
Jake Lambert (@LittleLostLad)
27/07/2014 22:26
RT @SkySportsNews: Southampton make £90m bid for Luis Suarez.
GIN: my guess is that tomorrow's polls will show a range of results around a 3-point Labour lead. Might include a crossover, or not...
We spoke on here the other day of the "too difficult box", the NHS needs to be taken out of that and a cross-party, long-term plan agreed.
Is max Hastings related to hank Marvin at all???
Sounded like value to me, even if you have to wait nine months.
Pelle. The new striker from Feyenoord was different class in Holland, almost a goal a game, and the other new signing Tadic is meant to be quality too, so that's lambert and Lallana replaced... Big ask to build a whole new team from scratch though. Koeman a bit patchy as a manager too
On your second point there, yes, but does it tell us any more than the national polls?
Again we need someone to do some serious analysis of the marginals polls done last time.
Seems like since they're going to be moaning about something in any case, the government would be happy that it's something transparently self-interested like better, cheaper, more convenient competition.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/cycle-of-war-political-economy/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2568
Unfortunately pol home have deleted also the mahoosive marginals polls of 2008 and 2009 data tables, however by my estimation, those marginals were showing slightly larger Con leads than the national polling was.
For example in July 2008 the Tories were on course for 399 seats and Lab 160.
A year later, it was 360 seats for the Tories and 199 seats for Lab
Ms Cooper is making a speech about banning the use of Community Resolution in the case of domestic violence.
Now why would Labour be opposing a system they were perfectly happy to see in place during their last time in office?
Happy to support a policy when they were in power and now opposing it? Opportunistic or what?
And, of course, all the pre-announced sound-bites make absolutely no reference to domestic violence towards men. And whilst this is not as prevalent as violence towards women, it is by no means an insignificant problem. Indeed it is, in many ways, a far more hidden issue - and thus deserving of greater public awareness.
But that doesn't fit the narrative. Domestic violence is wrong. Indeed any violence is wrong. But it is wrong to suggest that only men are the perpetrators and only women are the victims. Cooper's attitude and language undermines the position of all victims. There is no place for sexism of any sort in this area.
Under the guidelines for Community Resolution, the victim must (usually) consent to it being used to deal with that specific incident. And whilst I can see that some victims might feel pressured, others might be perfectly willing to proceed. A properly trained officer will have a feeling if undue influence was being used. To remove this valuable tool from the Criminal Justice system for one particular category of offences is just wrong. It is cheap political point-scoring and not the basis for a sound Justice system.
We are now getting full 1,000 sample constituency in the key marginals which cannot in any way be compared to the marginals polling before GE2010 where the number of those polled in each seat was very small.
But why should Ashcroft move on to LAB held seats when the last time he did so in May Labour was holding on with increased majorities. Once the Tories have solid 4-5% national leads there might be a case for moving in that direction. At the moment they don't.