If the Lib Dems were to get say 3% then their vote distro may well look something like UKIP's at the 2010GE - they will get more, but at 3% I'd venture to guess most political parties would have a fairly evenly distributed vote. The "lumpiness" needed to win FPTP seats disappears.
Now UKIP are on, I believe, 14%. That 11% will not be gained uniformly. There are areas where they won't go ahead so much, I'd expect them to lose deposits in Glasgow and London for instance, Sheffield Central.. and other areas like the east coast, parts of Essex and Lincolnshire, even some parts of the north (Doncaster, Rotherham) where they will outperform their UNS and may even in seats Thurrock, Thanet South, Boston & Skegness come very close to or actually win the seat.
The seat calculators don't see them winning a seat on 14% but it would take a remarkable uniformity of increase in support with low variation for them not to.
Just because their performance was uniform on ~ 3% last time, does not mean they will have a uniform increase to 14%.
It will be far less lumpy than the Lib Dems 10% or w/e they get but it will still have enough "lumps" to get them very close or win a few seats.
Lord Ashcroft's polling and Local Election results give a good pointer to this.
Eastleigh by the same polling and results is sticking Lib Dem whereas on UNS it may well go (Conservative)
But UKIP won't poll 14% in a year, any more than they polled in May 2010 what they had polled in July 2009. The question is what they fall back to.
Their performance last time wasn't a uniform 3%, and if you look at how it did shake out, there is no reason for UKIP optimism. Broadly, everywhere UKIP did well, so did the Tories. Thus - but for UKIP - the Tories would have got Balls out of Morley. UKIP's best %age of the poll was Christchurch where they got about 8%. Unfortunately for UKIP the Tories got nearly 28,000 votes so that Christchurch was both UKIP's best poll share but also one of its worst losing margins.
I don't think the Ashcroft polling is a pointer to anything quite frankly.
Well the Bookies clearly think they do - take Thurrock for instance.
Right now it is 8-11 Labour, 4-1 Conservatives.
If you don't believe UKIP are in the race there then you could back both for a 78% book on the matter.
That is effectively laying UKIP at 7-2.
2-7 Conservative or Labour is MASSIVE odds if you don't see UKIP being in the Thurrock race.
Thurrock looks like a Labour gain to me. Last time it was about 17,000 votes each for Con and Lab, with LDs on about 6,000 and UKIP nowhere. The obvious inference from polls is not that UKIP will win it, but that the LDs will break to Labour and UKIP will split the Tory vote resulting in a total Lab majority of about 4,000.
Populus could well provide me with a winner on @TSE's bet of ICM vs "The field" at GE2015. It is one of those I think could well come out on the lower side of ICM at any rate and so be good if UKIP underperform relative to expectations.
Thanks, yes, seen that - problem is that it gives no information on how to book a stand, and the conference organisers don't respond. Frustrating, and means they're missing out on getting quite a bit of money.
I'm going on Aeroflot next week and I'd like to state for the record that in the event of my untimely death, Ed Miliband can be in whatever country he likes, I couldn't give a shit either way.
Where are you going, as a matter of interest? I flew with Aeroflot last year, expecting an old-fashioned machine with curtains over the windows, meatballs with cabbage and elderly women attendants (my dad used to find it restful to have a motherly steward instead of a pseudo-bimbo). Not a bit of it, just a bog-standard international airline flying Airbuses and serving plastic generic food like everyone else.
On Monday we saw what Ed Miliband’s real priorities are. The House of Commons assembled for a statement about the crisis in Gaza and the destruction of MH17. Ed Miliband wasn’t there. Parliament was debating what to do in response to ten British citizens, and 288 of their fellow human beings, being blown out of a cloudless European sky. And he was 3,500 miles pursuing a 25-minute photo opportunity with Barack Obama.
And then he comes home, says a few words about Gaza for the Six O’Clock News, and lectures people on the cynicism of politicians who obsess about photo opportunities and soundbites.
Thurrock looks like a Labour gain to me. Last time it was about 17,000 votes each for Con and Lab, with LDs on about 6,000 and UKIP nowhere. The obvious inference from polls is not that UKIP will win it, but that the LDs will break to Labour and UKIP will split the Tory vote resulting in a total Lab majority of about 4,000.
I've just stuck "max" £32.87 on at Paddy's on Labour here, a nice addition to my £5 on UKIP at 16-1.
A nice skewed-dutched book laying the Conservatives.
Volcanopete says - ''Ed's not weird .He's just different.'' --- well he is the son of a rabid marxist thinker and brought up steeped in that kind of politics and instead of supporting his somewhat more moderate brother he stood against him. This tells me he is far more marxist leaning that his brother and is determined to make the Labour party so. I also suggest that such notions will delight his union paymasters.
So Ed is not wierd he is dangerous. And a europhile. So for those people out there who do not fancy the idea of a marxist-labour you have to ask yourselves just what is the best thing to do? Personally I do not thinkl splitting the roight wing vote is very clever.
Thurrock looks like a Labour gain to me. Last time it was about 17,000 votes each for Con and Lab, with LDs on about 6,000 and UKIP nowhere. The obvious inference from polls is not that UKIP will win it, but that the LDs will break to Labour and UKIP will split the Tory vote resulting in a total Lab majority of about 4,000.
Lab gain seems more likely than anything else, but I wouldn't rule out Con Hold; There's first-time incumbency (she's running again, right?) and there aren't that many LibDems to squeeze.
On the numbers UKIP need for the BNP to curl up and die to be in with a shot. I know the BNP haven't been doing triumphantly well lately, but if they can scrape together a deposit and hold a third of the votes they got last time that would make things quite hard for UKIP.
I'm going on Aeroflot next week and I'd like to state for the record that in the event of my untimely death, Ed Miliband can be in whatever country he likes, I couldn't give a shit either way.
Where are you going, as a matter of interest? I flew with Aeroflot last year, expecting an old-fashioned machine with curtains over the windows, meatballs with cabbage and elderly women attendants (my dad used to find it restful to have a motherly steward instead of a pseudo-bimbo). Not a bit of it, just a bog-standard international airline flying Airbuses and serving plastic generic food like everyone else.
I'm going to Berlin - renting a place with AirBNB and working from there for the month to get out of the heat.
But yeah, I use Aeroflot more than anything else. Like you say planes are pretty much all the same whichever airline you use, and the terminal in Moscow is better than most - not too busy, power, decent internet.
Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver 35m @MSmithsonPB@PopulusPolls You should do a chart on how they round UKIP down from 244 to 83 whilst all other parties remain roughly same
Anyhow I definitely think there's a practical policy in there somewhere. Do it right and you hit localism, communitarianism and Thatcherite property-owning democracy buttons all in one go, and solve an actual problem to boot.
A reason Denmark has so many wind farms is that it's government policy to let local communities have a share in the profits that they make, so the arrival of a windfarm produces a reduction in the equivalent of council tax. People who previously meh on the subject become quite keen. I think it's a good idea.
Anyhow I definitely think there's a practical policy in there somewhere. Do it right and you hit localism, communitarianism and Thatcherite property-owning democracy buttons all in one go, and solve an actual problem to boot.
A reason Denmark has so many wind farms is that it's government policy to let local communities have a share in the profits that they make, so the arrival of a windfarm produces a reduction in the equivalent of council tax. People who previously meh on the subject become quite keen. I think it's a good idea.
I spoke to someone about your problem re Doncaster and hope to have an answer soon. In the meantime more burning windmills in Denmark then.
Populus is down for UKIP due to a reduction by 5% of 2010C to UKIP switchers compared with the average this year. There is a lower switch to UKIP from the other parties as well but not as material as that.
No consistent evidence for such a reduction in C switchers in previous Populus polls, so may well be normal polling statistical variation.
The last time Populus had UKIP on 9 was on their poll 2/2/14 (last date of polling). However that was the last poll under their previous polling methodology which had UKIP significantly lower, so it is not directly comparable.
So 9% for UKIP is their lowest for Populus under current methodology.
strange how any impact of population growth was never mentioned when Labour was in power eh?
It was brought up here all the time.
I don't recall that Neil but if you recall that I am sure you are correct.
But would I be right in assuming Labour supporters were strangely silent at that time and have only recently become concerned by any impact of population growth?
Comments
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/gall/0,,1758617,00.html
Lab 337
Con 273
Lib 15
Ed Miliband Prime Minister, majority of 24
In much the same way that Birmingham is the capital of Mars.
A nice skewed-dutched book laying the Conservatives.
This tells me he is far more marxist leaning that his brother and is determined to make the Labour party so.
I also suggest that such notions will delight his union paymasters.
So Ed is not wierd he is dangerous. And a europhile. So for those people out there who do not fancy the idea of a marxist-labour you have to ask yourselves just what is the best thing to do?
Personally I do not thinkl splitting the roight wing vote is very clever.
On the numbers UKIP need for the BNP to curl up and die to be in with a shot. I know the BNP haven't been doing triumphantly well lately, but if they can scrape together a deposit and hold a third of the votes they got last time that would make things quite hard for UKIP.
But yeah, I use Aeroflot more than anything else. Like you say planes are pretty much all the same whichever airline you use, and the terminal in Moscow is better than most - not too busy, power, decent internet.
Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver 35m
@MSmithsonPB @PopulusPolls You should do a chart on how they round UKIP down from 244 to 83 whilst all other parties remain roughly same
In the meantime more burning windmills in Denmark then.
No consistent evidence for such a reduction in C switchers in previous Populus polls, so may well be normal polling statistical variation.
So 9% for UKIP is their lowest for Populus under current methodology.
But would I be right in assuming Labour supporters were strangely silent at that time and have only recently become concerned by any impact of population growth?