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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage could be preparing a surprise for Ed Milband at his
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage could be preparing a surprise for Ed Milband at his September conference in Doncaster
UKIP GAIN from LAB in EdM's backyard
Edenthorpe on Doncaster
UKIP 1,203
LAB 1,109
CON 479
GRN 160
EdM sits for Doncaster N
0
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It would be marvellous if another chcken came home to roost in Doncaster North.
How would it work in practice? On the one hand if Labour has a majority it should form the government, even if it doesn't have a leader in Parliament. But, while I am sure Hattie would claim she should be interim PM would potential contenders for the post really want her to have that role?
Similarly, EdM serving as PM while waiting for a patsy by-election doesn't seem right somehow.
My guess would be Cameron continues in post, but with no primary legislation, until there is a new labour leader elected
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5-jvnSstX9w
Titter ....
However the overarching PB precept is that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Become Prime Minister
The result would be so embarrassing and possibly ruin UKIP forever, just like Zama was for Carthage.
It would also push Lab to UKIP switchers back to Lab.
Plus as the 2005 Lib Dem decapitation strategy showed, it seldom works.
Still, it says a lot about the way Charles's mind works, that if the Tories win the election they provide the Prime Minister, but if Labour wins the elections... the Tories provide the Prime Minister!
If people like SouthamObserver are right and Labour's poll score dives whenever Ed Miliband is in the news, UKIP could be doing Labour a favour by tying him down in Doncaster.
One assumes that Ed Balls becomes PM in that scenario [shudders]. All the Blairites then feel very silly for vacating the Commons and letting Balls become PM by default.
Liz Truss: I used to sing anti-Thatcher songs. My childhood supporting CND and going to Greenham Common
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10989032/Liz-Truss-My-childhood-supporting-CND-and-going-to-Greenham-Common.html
Can't help but recall the Lib Dem decapitation strategy did not work terribly well.
Perhaps a new name should be used. A Trasimene or Teutoberg strategy, as it would seem to have the best chance of working if it came as something as a surprise, rather than being common knowledge from an early stage.
Apart from anything else it helps to get UKIP a bit more coverage during the next GE campaign, helps to take the pressure of Farage's campaign for whatever seat he finally decides to stand in, and helps to position UKIP as being a credible alternative for disgruntled Labour voters, rather than merely a group of washed-up ex-Tories annoyed that the Conservatives aren't right-wing enough.
What would be silly is if they decided to make this one seat the centrepiece of a wide-ranging decapitation strategy, where they put effort into finding candidates to run against Cameron, Balls, Osborne and Clegg, and then supported those candidates with money and activists. That would be stupid, but happening to have a strong-on-paper candidate for the Labour leader's seat is something that they will want to make a fuss about.
Shadsy, if you are offering 16/1 it ain't gonna happen!
I am however continually perplexed by the UKIP seats market on Betfair. You can lay None at about 7/4. Seems to me very likely that Farage will win wherever he stands, so that's a pretty safe safe bet.
One to Five seats looks pretty good value at 11/8 and a saver at 7/2 at Over Five also looks ok.
What are the odds on MikeK fainting with pleasure at this last result?
Also, the only way to win in democracy is to have your voters number more than any other party.
The question I ask myself is whether I would be tempted to vote UKIP in Doncaster North. And the answer is no, not a chance in hell. If Tory supporters like me are not tempted Ed is as safe as houses (unlike this connection ).
No, I think you're wrong there Mike, much as it might enliven PB in the run up to the GE.
UKIP plans to put most resources into about 25 - 35 seats where they feel that they have the best chance of winning the targeted seat. However the plan is also to find candidates for most if not all of the parliamentary seats.
So relax, UKIP will be everywhere. If Red Ed does lose to a UKIP candidate it will be as a result that the voters have spoken.
Ed Miliband Labour 19,637 47.3
Sophie Brodie Conservative 8,728 21.0
Ed Sanderson Liberal Democrat 6,174 14.9
Pamela Chambers BNP 2,818 6.8
Wayne Crawshaw English Democrats 2,148 5.2
Liz Andrews UKIP 1,797 4.3
Bill Rawcliffe TUSC 181 0.4
So BNP, English Democrats and UKIP totalled around 16%. If the Tory voters voted tactically for UKIP Ed might be in trouble.
It's unlikely to happen - particularly with the potential to have the PM as your MP - but it's not impossible.
That's certainly a possibility, Richard, which makes UKIP to win (any) seat a stonking good bet.
You get two shots at it - a) Farage wins because of his high profile and b) another UKIPper wins because he draws fire away from him/her.
There are a few obvious candidates who could win under scenario b). Personally I think both a) and b) will happen and UKIP will finish with about half a dozen seats, but I will be amazed if they do not win at least one, and have placed my bets accordingly.
Incidentally about half an hour to go to P1. I'll miss almost all of it, alas, but there we are.
Edited extra bit: just read on the BBC gossip column that Massa (and not Magnussen) was investigated for the lap 1 crash at Hockenheim. Mildly surprised both weren't investigated, although I agree with the conclusion it was a racing incident.
I would never faint with pleasure, Peter, whatever the number of seats UKIP gained at the GE.
Now, swooning with ecstasy is another matter.
In May the 7 council wards making up the constituency went Lab 5 Conservative 1 and Ind 1
Its obvious that strategy is working well.
Would be funny if Diane James wins in Eastleigh and is the only UKIP MP. Would Farage stand aside without being pushed?
I wonder how long it will be before betting PBers start putting money on Tory candidates in Labour marginals
Incidentally what did Jack's Arse pronounce yesterday? Lost my broadband signal around 8.30am yesterday morning.
In 1963 the Conservatives didn't employ anything quite so vulgar as a leadership election. Quite correctly they keep to the view that a Scottish peer would emerge through the mists of the glens and graciously accept the seals of office from Her Majesty as her Prime Minister.
It seems to me some old traditions have great merit.
You said that my suggestion that the LDs were heading for 1 MEP was a "wet dream". LOL
The ground UKIP is making in white wwc areas is fascinating. In the North and Midlands stubborness, loyalty and decency are part of the wwc dna. Those votes won't be easily won back without change, Edward doesn't appeal to these people that is becoming very clear.
22 Jul - Con 309 (+2) .. Lab 278 (-4) .. LibDem 32 (+2) .. Others Unchanged.
Mrs JackW has indicated ladies judo is "fascinating" .... Hhmmm ....
Ross Murdoch's win was magnificent. Quite some medal ceremony too.
On topic, I think Mike K is right - the Doncaster focus is tactical, to gain attention and rattle the cages, rather than a serious attempt. Good by-election though!
Now if only they'd get their orgainsation to the point that they sort out how one books stands, my (non-partisan) day job would be very pleased. Less than two months to go, and no information available whatsoever. Even worse than last year, when we did get a stand and had a pleasant day (there are lots of animal-friendly UKIP people).
Dan losing his nerve?
But actually, I quite like Ed Miliband and would feel really bad for him if he lost his seat. He gets enough stick already for someone who seems a nice guy
Ind 878 Con 476 Lab 158
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/commonwealth-games/28477880
Are your "ground" sources any good at all ?
"Ross Murdoch's win was magnificent. Quite some medal ceremony too."
Did you see the cute outfits some of those guys were wearing? Breathtaking....
Love it!
Keep em coming Mark
Will send to you email
Actually I predicted 3-4 Scots Tory seats in 2010. Other than Charles Kennedy and Alistair Carmichael, how many Scottish LibDems do you see surviving? Currently they will be lucky to fill a taxi after the GE.
We are now 0.2% up on the 2008 peak GDP.
Employment / unemployment stats also astonishing.
But...we're still running a shocking deficit, alot worse than many of the 'poorer performing' economies. We're still deep underwater and horribly exposed to the next shock.
http://www.doncaster.gov.uk/sections/leisureandculture/markets/farmers_market.aspx
"We are now 0.2% up on the 2008 peak GDP."
How many more people though?
edit: decapitation strategy always feels like bullying so needs to be only on people that are very disliked or symbolic
UK economy grew by 0.8% in second quarter of 2014, official figures show
The figures, from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), show the economy is now 0.2% ahead of its pre-crisis peak, which was reached in the first quarter of 2008.
The ONS said the economy had grown 3.1% since the second quarter of last year.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28479902
Northern Portugal is very unLabour-like. Deeply conservative and catholic. The south is where the reds live.
Mrs JackW on the other hand is rooted to my 10inch .... black and white tv.
You know it makes sense & would make for a load of fun during the election.
Labour will launch its summer campaign later today. The centre-piece is Ed Miliband’s speech. He will present a ‘big choice’ to the British public, arguing that they cannot afford 5 more years of Conservative rule. Miliband’s argument is simple: the economy is broken, only we can fix it; the NHS is threatened, only we can save it; the Tories only represent the few, we care for the many.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/07/ed-miliband-stakes-all-on-his-big-choice/
So that's the first of his three messages torpedoed before it left the dock.
It is number 7 that made me laugh out loud
Foreign Secretary
What it usually means: How your slightly racist grandmother refers to the receptionist at her GP.
What it means in politics: A senior politician who travels the world attending endless conferences.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jonstone/statement-to-follow
The Osborne message is fairly clear, will be interesting to see how it plays at next year's election given the slide in importance people are attaching to the economy.
"Economy grew by 0.8%. Thanks to the hard work of the British people, today we reach a major milestone in our #LongTermEconomicPlan
Economy bigger than previous peak in 2008 but long way to go-the Great Recession was one of deepest of any major economy & cost UK 6 years
We owe it to hardworking taxpayers not to repeat the mistakes of the past &instead work through the plan that's delivering economic security"
"Balls Deep in Trouble"
"Visiting @VirginMoney Newcastle, home to Northern Rock where crisis started. Now as economy passes pre-crisis peak they're creating 200 jobs"
Odd because the GDP figures are announced today? or another odd?
Con .......... 299 seats (-5 seats)
Lab ........... 295 seats (+5 seats)
LibDem ...... 28 seats (-1 seat)
Others ....... 28 seats (+1 seat)
Total ........ 650 seats
"For anyone with any sense, who was in trouble, would come to the whips and tell them the truth, and say now, I’m in a jam, can you help? It might be debt, it might be… a scandal involving small boys, or any kind of scandal in which, erm er, a member seemed likely to be mixed up in, they’d come and ask if we could help and if we could, we did. And we would do everything we can because we would store up brownie points… and if I mean, that sounds a pretty, pretty nasty reason, but it’s one of the reasons because if we could get a chap out of trouble then, he will do as we ask forever more.”
HMMMM.
Offer UKIP a free run in Donny Central if you need to for not challenging Ed, Ed & Eddy.
Cheers.