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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » July’s Issues Index has immigration and the economy down –

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  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    you are prepared to contemplate genocide

    Get off your high horse. You stuffed so many words into my mouth there its untrue.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    Mr. K, any source for that claim regarding UN schools and rockets?
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Neil said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Neil
    Afghanistan,Somalia, in fact almost every country where the parents insurance in old age is their children, or where their religion encourages them to multiply?

    Yes, poor countries have high birthrates; that's almost an iron law of demography. Your point was surely that some countries retained high birth rates even after the demographic transition model would have predicted they would fall? My question was which countries you had in mind. If that wasnt your point I'm struggling to see what your point was. The fact that Afghanistan or Somalia currently have high birth rates doesnt invalidate anything HL has said (or undermine the UN's central population projections).

    What is the birth rate expressed as number of children per woman in Bangladesh then, Mr Neil? Bangladesh, poor country, so how many children per woman would you think?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    taffys said:

    Did you have a number in mind, or just keep on doing it until the rockets stop?

    Sorry, was that question aimed at the Palestinian government or the Israeli one? The Palestinians after all, control the rockets.

    The Palestinian government has to be a candidate for the most irresponsible in history. They have for a number of years attacked a vastly superior power with no thought whatever to what might happen to their citizens if that power turned nasty.

    Its a bit like a man looking after a large family prodding a bear with a stick.

    Incidentally, we are no country to lecture anyone on the correct reaction to the indiscriminate killing of our citizens by unmanned rockets.

    When the Germans fired V1s and V2s at us we turned their cities to rubble.

    There was no need for the additional information. I now understand that you are prepared to literally kill everyone in Gaza, as long as the rockets remain, rockets which have so far killed two Israelis, compared to the 780 Palestinian dead in the latest Gazan war.

    You are prepared to contemplate genocide. I don't think you need to add to that, really.
    It is absurd to call the Israeli action genocide. That would mean the deliberate extermination of a race or other population group. The Israelis are not bombing the West Bank or the million Arabs who are Israeli citizens. They have given warnings to civilians of their planned actions.

    Hamas do not care how many civilians get killed either in Israel or in Gaza. They are like Boko Haram or ISIS and are holding their own people as hostages in order to further their ideology. I am sorry for the hostages, but their captors could stop civilian deaths in an instant if they stopped randomly firing rockets at Israeli towns.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Neil
    Afghanistan,Somalia, in fact almost every country where the parents insurance in old age is their children, or where their religion encourages them to multiply?

    Yes, poor countries have high birthrates; that's almost an iron law of demography. Your point was surely that some countries retained high birth rates even after the demographic transition model would have predicted they would fall? My question was which countries you had in mind. If that wasnt your point I'm struggling to see what your point was. The fact that Afghanistan or Somalia currently have high birth rates doesnt invalidate anything HL has said (or undermine the UN's central population projections).

    What is the birth rate expressed as number of children per woman in Bangladesh then, Mr Neil. Bangladesh, poor country, so how many children per woman?
    Seems to be about 2.8 / 2.9 from the data I found after a quick google.

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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Mr Dancer,

    Stem cells are undifferentiated cells. They can be used to produce new tissues that will have to divide. Cell division is never 100% error-free and comes with the biggest risk of all - cancer. I'm sure ageing can be slowed, but to truly reverse it ... you'd need to have a spare copy of the original genome with the epigenetic markers too, and then .. OK, in about 1,000,000 years at the present rate of progress.

    Incidentally, last year I wrote a sci-fi novel which involved this sort of scheme. Wild Wolf Publishing will be bringing it out as an e-book later this year and will publish in paperback if rating are good enough. Not sure when though. I thought it was a bit geeky myself, but obviously there must be a market for the subject.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    Where is Avery and his yellow boxes?
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    MikeK said:

    UKIP reshuffle almost completed:
    http://www.ukip.org/

    taffys said:

    'Just curious'.



    Impressive new Ukip team.

    http://www.fab1.co.nz/characters/characters.htm

  • Options
    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078

    MikeK said:

    UKIP reshuffle almost completed:
    http://www.ukip.org/

    taffys said:

    'Just curious'.



    Impressive new Ukip team.

    http://www.fab1.co.nz/characters/characters.htm

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,384
    taffys said:



    When the Germans fired V1s and V2s at us we turned their cities to rubble.

    That job was more than half done before the first V1 was fired. RAF area bombing had nothing to with V1s or V2s
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    taffys said:



    By the way, if an Islamic Militant device slightly damaged a bus stop in Primrose Hill, I guess you'd just be laughing that off.

    Anyone who was around here 7 years ago knows that SeanT doesnt laugh off terrorist attacks. Mind you he was once kidnapped by gun-toting bandits so you'd have thought he'd be more used to it than most!
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @RobD

    Avery has not been seen for dust since it was confirmed that the deficit is getting bigger.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028

    Smarmeron said:

    @HurstLlama

    The drive forward in agricultural yields was, and is driven by the petro -chemical industry, too supply that need we need to recover resources at ever greater expense, and what makes you think the worlds population will stabilize?

    What makes me think that the population will not keep on growing? Well my first degree was in mathematics (I got a 2:1 but wasn't clever enough to become a professional mathematician), so I am quite good with numbers and statistics. If you look at birthrates across the world then you will see that the number of babies per woman in declining to the point where replacement will become an issue, yes even in the so-called third world.

    Look, rather than me trying to explain it, pour yourself a nice cup of tea, sit back an watch this video:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSGoqw45tKI

    You will enjoy it and it will change your view on several issues.
    We've actually hit "peak children (0-14 years)" but the population should carry on growing till at least 2035 even at the low end of the estimate

    http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf

    I don't think it is particularly a worry for the population growth rate to be seemingly levelling out for the world ^_~

    Quite healthy for everyon tbh.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Isam

    I'm not the one calling people "idiots" for holding placards advocating the end of poverty
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    Mr. CD13, congratulations :)

    Do let me know when it's listed, and I'll mention it to those I know who are into sci-fi (I occasionally read it, but not too often).

    Incidentally, just before I go for tea, the first two Honor Harrington books were/are free on Amazon (as e-books, obviously) so those into sci-fi might want to take advantage of that. Currently 2/5 or so into the first. More technical stuff than I'm used to, but I'm enjoying it overall.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited July 2014
    Neil said:

    taffys said:



    By the way, if an Islamic Militant device slightly damaged a bus stop in Primrose Hill, I guess you'd just be laughing that off.

    Anyone who was around here 7 years ago knows that SeanT doesnt laugh off terrorist attacks. Mind you he was once kidnapped by gun-toting bandits so you'd have thought he'd be more used to it than most!
    LoL. As MalcolmG would say, he was big Jessie in a girl's blouse and a cowardy custard to boot. And wasn't it 9 years ago?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    RobD said:

    Where is Avery and his yellow boxes?

    He's outsourced them to the IMF.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Neil
    Afghanistan,Somalia, in fact almost every country where the parents insurance in old age is their children, or where their religion encourages them to multiply?

    Yes, poor countries have high birthrates; that's almost an iron law of demography. Your point was surely that some countries retained high birth rates even after the demographic transition model would have predicted they would fall? My question was which countries you had in mind. If that wasnt your point I'm struggling to see what your point was. The fact that Afghanistan or Somalia currently have high birth rates doesnt invalidate anything HL has said (or undermine the UN's central population projections).

    What is the birth rate expressed as number of children per woman in Bangladesh then, Mr Neil. Bangladesh, poor country, so how many children per woman?
    Seems to be about 2.8 / 2.9 from the data I found after a quick google.

    Cheating there, Mr. Neil. What would have been your answer before you used your google-foo?
    I would bet that it was four or more children, a high birthrate country.

    But it isn't is it? Your quick google I think is probably a little high, but no matter Bangladesh, which has yet to hit prosperity on a world index, has a birthrate not that far above sustainability? If it is happening in Bangladesh, where else is this happening?

    Well, just about everywhere except some parts of Africa, people are having fewer children and living longer. What is that going to mean for politics in the future? Dunno, but this Malthusian (thanks Mr. Dancer couldn't remember his name of the top of my head) idea that we will run out of resources is complete bollocks.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:


    Smarmeron said:

    @HurstLlama

    The drive forward in agricultural yields was, and is driven by the petro -chemical industry, too supply that need we need to recover resources at ever greater expense, and what makes you think the worlds population will stabilize?

    What makes me think that the population will not keep on growing? Well my first degree was in mathematics (I got a 2:1 but wasn't clever enough to become a professional mathematician), so I am quite good with numbers and statistics. If you look at birthrates across the world then you will see that the number of babies per woman in declining to the point where replacement will become an issue, yes even in the so-called third world.

    Look, rather than me trying to explain it, pour yourself a nice cup of tea, sit back an watch this video:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSGoqw45tKI

    You will enjoy it and it will change your view on several issues.
    We've actually hit "peak children (0-14 years)" but the population should carry on growing till at least 2035 even at the low end of the estimate

    http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf

    I don't think it is particularly a worry for the population growth rate to be seemingly levelling out for the world ^_~

    Quite healthy for everyon tbh.
    There are two aspects to resource depletion, one is population but the other is consumption percapita.

    A stable or even shrinking population may use more resources if it gets richer. One reason that we need to generate green economies. If polluters or squanderers of resources were financially penalised, then thrifty use of resources would result. We should move more to taxes on consumption and less on income.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Scotland win their first medal.

    Aileen McGlynn, a para-cyclist who previously won Gold when partnered with an English pilot, gets Silver.

    Beaten by her English partner for Gold.

    I wonder if there might be a political message there somewhere...?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,059
    BobaFett said:

    @Isam

    I'm not the one calling people "idiots" for holding placards advocating the end of poverty

    Yes I know, but the answer you gave would have been seized upon had it referenced "the left" rather than "the right", never a good tactić in debate if you would argue against the tactics you use yourself, even if most normal people would let it pass using common sense
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215

    RobD said:

    Where is Avery and his yellow boxes?

    He's outsourced them to the IMF.
    I fear Avery has been recalled to Moscow.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    BobaFett said:

    @RobD

    Avery has not been seen for dust since it was confirmed that the deficit is getting bigger.

    What is £1bn between friends? I think we can all agree Osborne is doing a bang-up job...... :)
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    Cheating there, Mr. Neil. What would have been your answer before you used your google-foo?
    I would bet that it was four or more children, a high birthrate country.

    I'm agreeing with your proposition that world population growth is likely to level off as fertility rates fall!

    Bangladesh has clearly gone through most of the stages of the demographic transition model. I would expect (along with the UN's demographers!) most countries that still have high fertility rates to follow in due course.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @RicHolden: According to the IMF Britain is the fastest growing country in more than just the G7... http://t.co/DLM2moqA1y http://t.co/UKespYVvqE
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    Government 'loses £700m NHS IT legal battle with Fujitsu'

    .....

    Last month, MPs raised transparency concerns about another legal battle that has gone to arbitration - the government's four year fight with e-borders supplier Raytheon, which is suing the government for £500m.

    That case has been in arbitration for four years and despite the Home Office saying a year ago that a result was due soon there is apparently no end in sight.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28464002

    Thanks Tony.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    JohnO said:

    RobD said:

    Where is Avery and his yellow boxes?

    He's outsourced them to the IMF.
    I fear Avery has been recalled to Moscow.
    We'll know what he's been up to once the rebels start blasting Kiev with explosive yellow boxes.

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    In all seriousness, it is near-certain that the level of economic activity we are seeing in the UK at the moment will lead to a significant improvement in the speed of deficit reduction. There's always a lag before the better tax receipts show through, but show through they will. Those trying to make partisan points from the shortfall compared with forecasts in the first quarter are barking up another dead end.
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    HughHugh Posts: 955
    BobaFett said:

    @Isam

    I'm not the one calling people "idiots" for holding placards advocating the end of poverty

    Yeah it was a very strange thing to say.

    Presumably the PBTory in question is in favour of greater poverty? Or just anti-campaigning? I dunno.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022

    In all seriousness, it is near-certain that the level of economic activity we are seeing in the UK at the moment will lead to a significant improvement in the speed of deficit reduction. There's always a lag before the better tax receipts show through, but show through they will. Those trying to make partisan points from the shortfall compared with forecasts in the first quarter are barking up another dead end.

    Do you recall which four months corporation tax receipts are due?
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    In all seriousness, it is near-certain that the level of economic activity we are seeing in the UK at the moment will lead to a significant improvement in the speed of deficit reduction. There's always a lag before the better tax receipts show through, but show through they will. Those trying to make partisan points from the shortfall compared with forecasts in the first quarter are barking up another dead end.

    Is there even a shortfall compared with (OBR rather than external) forecasts in the first quarter? I'm sure I read somewhere (but cant find it now) that the OBR wasnt minded to update its forecasts for the year based on Q1 outturn.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Mr D,

    "Honor Harrington books were/are free on Amazon,"

    Thanks, always happy to get good freebies onto my kindle. I haven't got round to reading "bane of Souls" yet, but will do soon (I'm a miserly bastard).
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    RobD said:

    In all seriousness, it is near-certain that the level of economic activity we are seeing in the UK at the moment will lead to a significant improvement in the speed of deficit reduction. There's always a lag before the better tax receipts show through, but show through they will. Those trying to make partisan points from the shortfall compared with forecasts in the first quarter are barking up another dead end.

    Do you recall which four months corporation tax receipts are due?
    I cant but Q1 corporation tax receipts were well up on last year anyway. I think January will be a key month as self-assessment receipts claw back a lot of the shortfall (which is only a shortfall when you consider how good Q1 was last year as high earners deferred pay to take advantage of the decrease in the additional rate of tax).
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    RobD said:

    Do you recall which four months corporation tax receipts are due?

    It's complicated because of the instalment payments big companies have to make. Small companies don't have to pay until nine months after the end of their financial year.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,059
    Hugh said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Isam

    I'm not the one calling people "idiots" for holding placards advocating the end of poverty

    Yeah it was a very strange thing to say.

    Presumably the PBTory in question is in favour of greater poverty? Or just anti-campaigning? I dunno.
    Any ideas on the bet we had? If it was Clegg vs Farage, I suppose I was with Farage and won?

    Donate £50 to the site and we will leave it at that?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Neil said:

    Is there even a shortfall compared with (OBR rather than external) forecasts in the first quarter? I'm sure I read somewhere (but cant find it now) that the OBR wasnt minded to update its forecasts for the year based on Q1 outturn.

    I think there's a small shortfall compared with estimates but I wouldn't be too fussed about it.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    Anyone else worried that Avery's disappearance coincides with the release of the Q2 GDP figures tomorrow?

    Are they that bad?
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Neil said:

    Is there even a shortfall compared with (OBR rather than external) forecasts in the first quarter? I'm sure I read somewhere (but cant find it now) that the OBR wasnt minded to update its forecasts for the year based on Q1 outturn.

    I think there's a small shortfall compared with estimates but I wouldn't be too fussed about it.
    Right - it's within the measurement uncertainty. Compared to the 2010 forecasts though...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022

    Anyone else worried that Avery's disappearance coincides with the release of the Q2 GDP figures tomorrow?

    Are they that bad?

    He may have died in ecstasy... ;)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    Mr. CD13, it's a princely 77 pence ;)
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,211
    Scott_P said:

    Scotland win their first medal.

    Aileen McGlynn, a para-cyclist who previously won Gold when partnered with an English pilot, gets Silver.

    Beaten by her English partner for Gold.

    I wonder if there might be a political message there somewhere...?

    Only in the head of a cretin
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Mr D,

    77p? Even Malcolmg would call that a bargain
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    Mr. CD13, I believe Mr. G has been kind enough to purchase a book or two.

    I always said he was a man of impeccable good taste.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Isam

    Fair point. I retract the sweeping generalisation - I should have said "some rightwingers". You are right
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @ScottP

    No.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @steve_hawkes: Ed Miliband launches Labour's summer campaign tomorrow - just hours after figures expected to confirm rebound in UK economy #doh
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @CD13

    " I haven't got round to reading "bane of Souls" yet, but will do soon (I'm a miserly bastard)"

    You are indeed. Given the amusement Mr. Dancer gives all on here by his general comments, to say nothing of the profits one may gain by judiciously acting on his racing and tennis tips, the fact that you haven't forked out a few measly pennies on one of his, rather good, books makes you look like the man who gave lessons to Scrooge. That, you come on here and boast of the fact that you haven't bought "Bane of Souls" because you are to miserly to pay out a few pennies, well, frankly my ghast has never been so flabbered.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @HurstLlama
    I have heard scurrilous rumours you have a ghastly flabber.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    @CD13

    " I haven't got round to reading "bane of Souls" yet, but will do soon (I'm a miserly bastard)"

    You are indeed. Given the amusement Mr. Dancer gives all on here by his general comments, to say nothing of the profits one may gain by judiciously acting on his racing and tennis tips, the fact that you haven't forked out a few measly pennies on one of his, rather good, books makes you look like the man who gave lessons to Scrooge. That, you come on here and boast of the fact that you haven't bought "Bane of Souls" because you are to miserly to pay out a few pennies, well, frankly my ghast has never been so flabbered.

    This is not entirely accurate. I have done very nicely out of Mr Dancer's F1 tips and am very grateful for them. I did recycle some of the winnings and now own all of his currently published books.

    I did, however, make the dreadful error of recycling the rest into his tennis tips!

    The books, it bears repeating, are excellent and highly recommended.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    Mr. M, tennis tips have been, as usual, patchy. That's always been the case, however.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Things must be on the up, I spoke to a lady today who hasn't had a holiday for several yrs but is splashing out 2.4k for 10 days all inc in Barbados.
    I could only dream of doing that. seems an awful lot of money to me
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Mr. K, any source for that claim regarding UN schools and rockets?

    Plenty. All you have to do is read the news that the BBC tries not to mention.
    http://mashable.com/2014/07/23/u-n-rockets-school-gaza/

    http://www.timesofisrael.com/for-second-time-rockets-found-at-un-school-in-gaza/
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    More for @Morris_Dancer

    Hamas fires on Israeli troops from a hospital. Fair enough you say, but don't expect Israelis not to respond.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O9AHzUKYk8&feature=youtu.be
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    edited July 2014
    MikeK said:

    More for @Morris_Dancer

    Hamas fires on Israeli troops from a hospital. Fair enough you say, but don't expect Israelis not to respond.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O9AHzUKYk8&feature=youtu.be

    Isn't it true that the overwhelming majority of Israelis killed by Hamas are IDF soldiers, whereas the overwhelming majority of Gazans killed by Israel are civilians?
  • Options
    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,438

    Mr. CD13, congratulations :)

    Do let me know when it's listed, and I'll mention it to those I know who are into sci-fi (I occasionally read it, but not too often).

    Incidentally, just before I go for tea, the first two Honor Harrington books were/are free on Amazon (as e-books, obviously) so those into sci-fi might want to take advantage of that. Currently 2/5 or so into the first. More technical stuff than I'm used to, but I'm enjoying it overall.

    Mr Dancer

    The HH series are very good, but there are a fair few books in the Honorverse, if you include books other than in the main series which you should do as they good in their own right and also give important information.

    I like the interaction between the politics and the space battles in the books. I think that the politics become more important in some of the later books.

    The publisher has a very good website, www.baen.com, and the first quarter of each book is typically available to read. They have pioneered drm free books, and their ebook site has a very big back catalogue.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    GeoffM said:

    @CD13

    " I haven't got round to reading "bane of Souls" yet, but will do soon (I'm a miserly bastard)"

    You are indeed. Given the amusement Mr. Dancer gives all on here by his general comments, to say nothing of the profits one may gain by judiciously acting on his racing and tennis tips, the fact that you haven't forked out a few measly pennies on one of his, rather good, books makes you look like the man who gave lessons to Scrooge. That, you come on here and boast of the fact that you haven't bought "Bane of Souls" because you are to miserly to pay out a few pennies, well, frankly my ghast has never been so flabbered.

    This is not entirely accurate. I have done very nicely out of Mr Dancer's F1 tips and am very grateful for them. I did recycle some of the winnings and now own all of his currently published books.

    I did, however, make the dreadful error of recycling the rest into his tennis tips!

    The books, it bears repeating, are excellent and highly recommended.
    Fair points, Mr. M, especially the last. Last night, unable to sleep because of this preposterous heat I fired up Sir Edric's Temple on the trusty Kindle. Must be the forth time I have read it and it still made me laugh out loud sufficiently to disturb both The Brute and Herself, and I was in the spare room.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    Smarmeron said:

    @SeanT

    There is a perfect irony about Israeli policy, which while lesser in extent, does have some striking historical precedents.

    "We have to destroy Gaza to save it!"
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    RobD said:

    BobaFett said:

    @RobD

    Avery has not been seen for dust since it was confirmed that the deficit is getting bigger.

    What is £1bn between friends? I think we can all agree Osborne is doing a bang-up job...... :)
    I have this theory (which is probably bollocks!) that Avery is none other than the Chancellor himself :)
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    More for @Morris_Dancer

    Hamas fires on Israeli troops from a hospital. Fair enough you say, but don't expect Israelis not to respond.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O9AHzUKYk8&feature=youtu.be

    Isn't it true that the overwhelming majority of Israelis killed by Hamas are IDF soldiers, whereas the overwhelming majority of Gazans killed by Israel are civilians?
    You prefer it to be reversed then: more Israeli non-combatants to die to even the score?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    More for @Morris_Dancer

    Hamas fires on Israeli troops from a hospital. Fair enough you say, but don't expect Israelis not to respond.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O9AHzUKYk8&feature=youtu.be

    Isn't it true that the overwhelming majority of Israelis killed by Hamas are IDF soldiers, whereas the overwhelming majority of Gazans killed by Israel are civilians?
    You prefer it to be reversed then: more Israeli non-combatants to die to even the score?
    You should be condemning the Israelis as they have caused far more death and suffering in this current round of fighting.

    Hope this blatantly pro-Israel stance isn't official UKIP policy?
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Smarmeron said:

    @HurstLlama
    I have heard scurrilous rumours you have a ghastly flabber.

    Foul slanders put about by my enemies, Comrade. Take no notice.

    However, being a gentle sort of chap, it does take a lot before my flabber is ghasted.

    P.S. You watched that video yet?
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    RobD said:

    BobaFett said:

    @RobD

    Avery has not been seen for dust since it was confirmed that the deficit is getting bigger.

    What is £1bn between friends? I think we can all agree Osborne is doing a bang-up job...... :)
    I have this theory (which is probably bollocks!) that Avery is none other than the Chancellor himself :)
    It's hard to believe anyone other than Ozzy could post such risible propaganda certainly
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    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    Smarmeron said:

    @HurstLlama

    The drive forward in agricultural yields was, and is driven by the petro -chemical industry, too supply that need we need to recover resources at ever greater expense, and what makes you think the worlds population will stabilize?

    What makes me think that the population will not keep on growing? Well my first degree was in mathematics (I got a 2:1 but wasn't clever enough to become a professional mathematician), so I am quite good with numbers and statistics. If you look at birthrates across the world then you will see that the number of babies per woman in declining to the point where replacement will become an issue, yes even in the so-called third world.

    Look, rather than me trying to explain it, pour yourself a nice cup of tea, sit back an watch this video:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSGoqw45tKI

    You will enjoy it and it will change your view on several issues.
    Except sub Saharan Africa.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @HurstLlama
    Yes, it predicts more people consuming ever more resources, which is what I said already.
    Statistically it points to an eventual flattening out of population, It could possibly happen, but there is no guarantee with simple models is there?
    The real limits on population growth are access, or lack of, to resources.
    (At this point the "apes" usually start waving pointy sticks about and getting agitated)
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Smarmeron said:

    @HurstLlama
    Yes, it predicts more people consuming ever more resources, which is what I said already.
    Statistically it points to an eventual flattening out of population, It could possibly happen, but there is no guarantee with simple models is there?
    The real limits on population growth are access, or lack of, to resources.
    (At this point the "apes" usually start waving pointy sticks about and getting agitated)

    True but as a clever ape we've found ever better ways of using resources and finding more. Who's to say we won't mine the moon or invent limitless solar energy in the next couple of hundred years? Joe Average Brit from 1814 would be amazed at the health wealth education and life experience of his 2014 counterpart. Now there's a lot of Joe Averages in less fortunate parts of the world who don't share our bounty but they've got a better chance than ever of getting a slice of it than anyone from two hundred years ago from any part if the world. After all many things that have improved life didn't even exist 200 years ago no matter how rich you were.

    We are an ingenious ape.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Smarmeron said:

    @HurstLlama
    Yes, it predicts more people consuming ever more resources, which is what I said already.
    Statistically it points to an eventual flattening out of population, It could possibly happen, but there is no guarantee with simple models is there?
    The real limits on population growth are access, or lack of, to resources.
    (At this point the "apes" usually start waving pointy sticks about and getting agitated)

    Comrade, I give up. If that is the message that you took from that video there is clearly no point in my carrying on any conversation with you. Good luck living in your closed little world of personal prejudice.
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    It is absurd to call the Israeli action genocide. That would mean the deliberate extermination of a race or other population group. The Israelis are not bombing the West Bank or the million Arabs who are Israeli citizens. They have given warnings to civilians of their planned actions.

    Hamas do not care how many civilians get killed either in Israel or in Gaza. They are like Boko Haram or ISIS and are holding their own people as hostages in order to further their ideology. I am sorry for the hostages, but their captors could stop civilian deaths in an instant if they stopped randomly firing rockets at Israeli towns.

    Genocide is clearly the wrong term. But you don't have to be a bleeding heart pro-Arab type to be concerned by the number of Palestinian deaths. And there are legal issues over proportionality. Israel has had the (mis)fortune of morphing from a David to a Goliath. In the short run at least, this guarantees its existential security - but makes it far harder, in a sense, to respond to smaller - but tragic, and politically highly sensitive - non-conventional breaches of security. For all the calls for Israeli restraint, what they are doing now is pretty limited compared to their capacity. They could simply flatten the whole of Gaza if they desired. Even with more restrained aims, they are bigger and stronger and more effective and they will therefore kill more people. I wonder what a genuinely "proportionate" response to continued rocket attacks would be? Pinprick airstrikes perhaps? In truth I suspect it is simply difficult to disable rocket-launching capacity without sticking boots on dangerous ground, and because of the risks involved in that there is no surprise they want to go in with overwhelming firepower on their side.

    A tragic irony: only a small proportion of Israelis killed in this crisis were civilians, while a large proportion of killed Palestinians were, despite both Hamas and the IDF actively seeking to reverse both those ratios. (Hamas being foiled by a combination of Iron Dome, the ineffectiveness of their rockets in targetting urban areas, and the effectiveness of the blockade in preventing a reprisal of their more deadly suicide bombing campaign; the IDF being foiled by the challenges of fighting in cramped and crowded urban areas against an irregular enemy.)
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Any chance Shadsy could price up the Greens in Bristol West?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,943
    Scott_P said:

    @RicHolden: According to the IMF Britain is the fastest growing country in more than just the G7... http://t.co/DLM2moqA1y http://t.co/UKespYVvqE

    Get the champagne on ice. Boy George has done good!
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Any chance Shadsy could price up the Greens in Bristol West?

    To win .. or to retain the deposit?! ;)

    I wouldnt be tempted unless he was extremely generous. It's one thing to lead in a constituency in local election results, another to avoid being squeezed by the main two contenders in a GE race (something I suspect UKIP will discover in a number of constituencies). Progress for 2020 and beyond will be the extent of the ambition here.

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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @GIN1138
    Indeed, Britain is booming on a tide of.....?
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Another thing that saddens me about the Gaza situation: the economic fallacy of sunk costs seems to apply in full.

    One would hope that the higher the death toll mounts, the more urgent negotiations for the end of hostilities would be.

    But on the contrary, each death makes it harder to reach agreement. Not in terms of the lust for revenge - though on the multi-year or even multi-generational timescales that sort of population-wide bitterness is obviously an issue, I think the dragging-on of the "peace process" (20 years now since that Nobel prize!) testifies for that.

    In the short run, I think it's safe to assume that political leaders on both sides are relatively rational about the achievement of their goals, and not motivated by vengeance. Yet there is a feeling of expended capital, which tends to create an impression that something must be done to recoup it. This makes a return to anything like the status quo ante increasingly unacceptable to both parties. Each side feels that, having taken such losses, they must have something to show for it at the end. So each requires greater concessions from the other. Each half-chance of cease-fire, let alone peace, becomes harder to grasp. The longer this runs on, the harder it becomes to back down - more humiliating, and apparently more wasteful of the sacrifices of your own people.

    The pessimist in me sees this going on til the political wills have ground each other down, and during all that time the body bags will flow.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    SeanT said:

    "Self-genocide". Excellent.

    I heard this one a few days ago.


    Netanyahu added. “So Hamas is both targeting civilians and Hamas is hiding behind civilians. That’s a double war crime, and therefore all civilian deaths as regrettable as they are fall on their shoulders.”

    http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2014/07/benjamin-netanyahu-hamas-committing-double-war-crime-rails-against-mad-islamists/

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    isamisam Posts: 41,059
    edited July 2014
    Last week there was a discussion on here about the prefix "North London" in front of "intellectual" when referring to Ed Miliband.

    Some wrongly tried to make it into an anti semitic slur, but it isn't that at all... it's about things like this

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/culturehousedaily/2014/07/the-snobbery-of-farmers-markets-makes-me-want-to-run-to-the-nearest-morrisons/

    ** and I say this as someone who likes North London, used to live there, and did, and still can, fall into this kind of ponceyness myself
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    hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Finding watching the news at the moment very diffcult. We have had several plane crashes, including a crash landing in Taiwan which killed 40 or more, but does not make most bulletins, as there are worse crashes to cover. Then there is Gaza, with over 700 people killed, with a UN school and hospital attacked by the Israelis.

    Very little coverage on Iraq/ISIS and Syria situation, even though there are still many battles being fought on a daily basis.

    The wests relationship with Russia is currently very strained, with Putin appearing to want to threaten neighbouring states, which could drag NATO countries in.

    I suspect at the moment any positive news on the UK economy won't be heard by many, as it is not a top news story and people may have stopped watching given the distressing stories.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Middle East Special Envoy for Peace, Blair, is underperforming.
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    SeanT said:



    So if the Israelis think it's a genocide, perhaps it is. They have experience in the matter.

    "Self-genocide". Excellent.

    A pathetic rhetorical flourish on their spokesperson's part, rather than a serious proposal of a new legal category.

    Regardless of the rights and wrongs, I'm constantly surprised by how badly Israel needs to get a better grip of their PR. From talking to Israelis I think it's got something to do with a mentality that arises from having to hide in bunkers, the drone of warning sirens, memories of dead acquaintances or ex-classmates or personal experience of near-misses from bombs in buses or cafes. Ghosts of earlier and graver tragedies when their people were not able to defend themselves. Perhaps not paranoia, but at the least, a sense of being wronged, remaining constantly under threat, and needing to proactively stick up for themselves and not let others get the jump on them. When an active attack comes in, that all primes you to strike back harder. It also makes that feel the entirely natural reaction.

    Israelis I have known have expressed utter incredulity at Western criticism. They think - rightly, in my opinion - that if Westerners (or at least our politicians) were put under exactly the same pressures, we would react in the same way, and the population would be supportive. They assume we are being hypocrites. I think they're wrong - we just don't have that siege mentality. We're not pre-primed to instantly think, on the news of a Hamas rocket attack, "bastards, let's hit them back so they can't keep doing this", and without paying too much attention to the damage we cause. If we were put in their shoes, we would collectively develop it pretty quickly.

    A lot of westerners seem flummoxed by the general nastiness of the Israelis. Why are they prepared to inflict so much pain to stop a few measly rockets? But we can too easily forget the mentality that their situation produces. From an outsider's perspective, life in Israel appears relatively affluent, comfortable, and western. But when you see the rockets streaming and hear the sirens blaring, I'm sure it doesn't feel very comfortable at all. It puts your head in a different place.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    Good evening, everyone.

    Cheers, Mr. Verulamius.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,127
    edited July 2014

    SeanT said:



    So if the Israelis think it's a genocide, perhaps it is. They have experience in the matter.

    "Self-genocide". Excellent.

    A pathetic rhetorical flourish on their spokesperson's part, rather than a serious proposal of a new legal category.

    Regardless of the rights and wrongs, I'm constantly surprised by how badly Israel needs to get a better grip of their PR. From talking to Israelis I think it's got something to do with a mentality that arises from having to hide in bunkers, the drone of warning sirens, memories of dead acquaintances or ex-classmates or personal experience of near-misses from bombs in buses or cafes. Ghosts of earlier and graver tragedies when their people were not able to defend themselves. Perhaps not paranoia, but at the least, a sense of being wronged, remaining constantly under threat, and needing to proactively stick up for themselves and not let others get the jump on them. When an active attack comes in, that all primes you to strike back harder. It also makes that feel the entirely natural reaction.

    Israelis I have known have expressed utter incredulity at Western criticism. They think - rightly, in my opinion - that if Westerners (or at least our politicians) were put under exactly the same pressures, we would react in the same way, and the population would be supportive. They assume we are being hypocrites. I think they're wrong - we just don't have that siege mentality. We're not pre-primed to instantly think, on the news of a Hamas rocket attack, "bastards, let's hit them back so they can't keep doing this", and without paying too much attention to the damage we cause. If we were put in their shoes, we would collectively develop it pretty quickly.

    A lot of westerners seem flummoxed by the general nastiness of the Israelis. Why are they prepared to inflict so much pain to stop a few measly rockets? But we can too easily forget the mentality that their situation produces. From an outsider's perspective, life in Israel appears relatively affluent, comfortable, and western. But when you see the rockets streaming and hear the sirens blaring, I'm sure it doesn't feel very comfortable at all. It puts your head in a different place.
    Very good post, Mr MBE. I'd only add one thought. Given that we can now see phone Youtube etc posts, which put Israel in an extremely bad light why doesn't the Israeli PR machine, expert that it is, urgently ask the military and the politicians to review both the situation and their actions?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,211

    Mr. CD13, I believe Mr. G has been kind enough to purchase a book or two.

    I always said he was a man of impeccable good taste.

    MD, I have purchased both your books, and chose the most expensive option each time. Hopefully to your benefit.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Smarmeron said:

    @Neil
    Afghanistan,Somalia, in fact almost every country where the parents insurance in old age is their children, or where their religion encourages them to multiply?

    Eek, it's the Utah Menace... (I have a Mormon friend - his family is up to 12 kids now and still going strong)

This discussion has been closed.