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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » July’s Issues Index has immigration and the economy down –
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » July’s Issues Index has immigration and the economy down – but health, crime and the international situation all showing increases
Immigration down 3% in @IpsosMORI Issues Index but still the main concen. Health up 3 & Crime up 4 pic.twitter.com/7pEci2lB9q
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Selling quid coins for 50p is wasting money. The government liquified an asset and sold it for a price well below its market rate. If that's not wasting money I don't know what is.
The fact people believed it says more about ISIS.
We just have to wait until the UN says otherwise.
I think another interesting thread would be along the lines of 'When Voters do Fear.' Although negative campaigning appears to have less impact in the UK than US, if a fear meme takes hold it can be enough to swing an election. It is arguably far more powerful than the flip-side thread of voters not doing gratitude. Two examples in my lifetime particularly stand out:
1992 Kinnock and Labour's tax bombshell. This was one of the greatest turnarounds in election history. Really and truly the Conservatives should have lost 1992. They were out of steam, starting to look sleazy and tired and it was time for a change. The negative attacks about Labour tax plans combined with the personal assault on Kinnock, especially by the right-wing red-tops were sufficient to scare enough people back to the Tories. Who will ever forget that infamous Sun front page? http://sunheadlines.blogspot.co.uk/2008/11/classics-if-kinnock-wins-please-turn.html
1983 Less stark but still effective was the attack on Michael Foot's Labour. The fear of god and just about everything else was sent into the electorate, portraying the prospect of a Labour victory as tantamount to surrendering to the Soviet Union. Although infamously described as 'the longest suicide note in history,' the 1983 Labour manifesto was probably not as left-wing as portrayed. Oh, and he wasn't really wearing a donkey jacket either
Can anyone think of others where negative campaigning has been highly effective? I ask particularly because, trust me, the Conservatives will go for the jugular on this. Labour stuffed up the UK economy. Brown managed to squander just about everything, including our gold reserves. Combine that with a 'weirdo' (not my word) at the helm and you can bet that Fear will be used as a highly effective weapon next year. It is one of the reasons I am certain the Conservatives will have an outright victory.
You missed out "capitalism".
A religion that says, that only by grabbing ever more, can mankind eventually live in peace and harmony.
I don't want to get into a religious debate here, but it is batshit insane!
By the way the US economy is close to one of my preffered overheating gauges with jobless claims plumetting way bellow 300k to 284k, an 8 year low.
If the bubble pops again the UK is in a much worse situation that before the previous crisis, with a current account deficit and debt having gone sky high it needs every penny of foreign money to plug the gap (bad timing to scare russian money away).
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
The Met Police collected information on 18 justice campaigns - including that of Jean Charles de Menezes - a report into a now defunct unit has said.
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28459711
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/491317/Nick-Clegg-s-decision-to-take-on-Nigel-Farage-is-to-blame-for-drubbing-at-polls
What is the efficiency increase of the latest Iphone over the previous model?
On paper, the specs look better, but when most people don't even use the max of the previous version, it is a marketing exercise, that is a waste of resources.
pic.twitter.com/Br5stsZW2K
Boo hoo. More like propping up the Tories in government for five long years, that might have had something to do with it.
No, what I am pointing at is the fact we stopped seeing value because we are blinded by a brand (or model).
I am not arguing for a state lead system, just a calm appraisal of what capitalism, is and does, and it's possible faults and strengths.
One is tempted to paraphrase Churchill's comments on democracy, ie Capitalism is the worst possible system, apart from all the others.
Not really, I am equally interested in other views on capitalism's strengths and weaknesses.
Obviously, as it isn't really a religion, no one could think it was infallible?
"Look at all the warnings Thatcher received?"
Can you give me some examples of those warnings Thatcher received from such as the IMF or OECD, I listed some of the warnings Brown received.
Thanks in advance.
'Capitalism is much more avoidable than socialism if you don't agree with it"
You are conflating "socialism and dictatorship" Harry.
Capitalism started when we climbed down from the trees, and found another forest full of less evolved apes to dominate. (The fail point here is the apes in the other forrest thought the same about them)
Every games should have an 'Eddie the Eagle' or an 'Eric the eel' - audiences lov'em.
That would depend on how they reacted? Would they fight, steal, trade?
The world hasn't really changed that much over the years has it?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/alex/
Alex gets very few mentions on this site, which I find rather odd
Yes, used in that way, "value" can only bee seen from the corner of your eye, you know it is there but it always seems to move.
Socialism's central issue (as I see it) is the further you go down the route of redistribution the less incentive there is for an individual to do anything, which results in the collective losing out too. Essentially, "why bother flogging myself to death if they're going to take it off me anyway?"
I always like the example of the Trabant v the Golf. The Times ran an obit last year of the Trabant's chief engineer (a Party man apparently and brilliant engineer) which stated in the early 50's the East German minister in charge expressly stopped development of the Trabant (much to this chap's chagrin) saying it was "good enough". No alternative cars to speak of course in the GDR system so zip forward to 1989 and the average East German was waiting 10 years (average age of first car was at 40), to buy something less safe, less fast, less comfortable, less environmental, and less reliable than the average West German who on average acquired a car at 28 (with no waiting list). That average car was a Golf.
Now I know they'll be arguments that East Germany wasn't truly "socialist" or whatever, but the evolution of the Beetle to the Golf 1952ish - 1989 and beyond was driven by the greed for more (yes let's get it out there and be proud of it) and fear of going bust of VW's shareholders. But what would you rather drive your family in, a Trabant or a Golf?
I'm all for equality of opportunity, and yes I want those that are genuinely unable to be helped - and (generously too) but equality of outcome creates problems far worse as I see it, I'm afraid.
I'd be all for socialism if it worked.
Every year, more people, consuming more resources from a finite stock.
This idea might need just a little tinkering round the edges?
"More condoms."
Free at the point of use I hope? :-)
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 3m
IMF upgrades UK growth forecast more than any other world economy to 3.2% in 2014 and 2.7% in 2015
The system isn't infinitely sustainable, but then no system is because the earth is a finite resource.
Secondly, the number of people on the planet will not continue to increase every year. The number of children has probably peaked and so the number of adults will plateau over the coming couple of decades. How to deal with that is going to test our ingenuity far more than some idea that we will run out of resources.
"Yes, of course :-) Might draw the line at recycling mind."
Apparently the early army ones were "reusable" No wonder they all got the clap?
I'll be glad when this damned humidity ends.
The drive forward in agricultural yields was, and is driven by the petro -chemical industry, too supply that need we need to recover resources at ever greater expense, and what makes you think the worlds population will stabilize?
Quite. Plus scientists are reasonably close to developing treatments that won;t just stop ageing, but actually reverse it.
This will be a huge challenge going forward.
On low fertility assumptions we'll have fewer people in 2100 than we had in 2010.
On high assumptions we go to 16 billion and beyond by 2100.
Quite a degree of uncertainty there
I think it was Bill Gates who recently said there will be no poor countries at all in 30 years time. Nightmare for Oxfam. Of course its capitalism that will do this, not some idiot waving a placard about 'make poverty history'
As soon as countries stop being poor, their birth rates fall precipitously. That's virtually a cast iron rule.
GM crops will help - as soon as the luddites stop blocking the dinners of 3rd world peoples.
Can we draw the line well before "Soylent Green"?
I paraphrase (and the above are priorities rather than absolute answers, details are here:
http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1235/renewableuk-energy-priorities-poll.htm
The last 3 questions are peculiar, since they require knowledge of Conservative views on wind farms and can be answered identically by supporters and opponents of wind farms and/or Tories.In general it's rather a badly-designed poll, with table on "What is the voters' 5th priority?" etc. But as usual it does show people remaining quite pro-green.
Somebody linked to an interesting statistical video a few months ago, suggesting, as per Mr. Llama's post, that rates of childbirth have stabilised and that the population will grow for a while longer but stabilise in the not too distant future.
People always seem determined to find an apocalypse. Bird flu. SARS. Swine flu (that was actually a pandemic, apparently). Global warming.
Mr. Llama, could be wrong, but was it Malthus who came up with the J-curve?
http://www.soylent.me/
http://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/news/11360483.Hospital_trust_asks_Government_for___45m_as_cash_crisis_deepens/
#imagineifitwereukip
The chap (Swedish stats man, I think) who made the video I referred to earlier reckoned population would rise but not dangerously so, and would then stabilise. I'm not prone to worrying about various imagined apocalyptic scenarios.
They might try genetically modifying bananas? One variety, (essentially a clone) makes up most of the worlds production.
Sometimes mono cultures can have downsides as well as up?
Look, rather than me trying to explain it, pour yourself a nice cup of tea, sit back an watch this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSGoqw45tKI
You will enjoy it and it will change your view on several issues.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28457737
[In Ukraine, obviously].
I feel fairly sure the birthrate in some countries is staying relatively on the high side for religious/cultural reasons? The opposite of China where they had the "one child" policy?
There is a perfect irony about Israeli policy, which while lesser in extent, does have some striking historical precedents.
As many as it takes to stop Hamas firing rockets?
On a related note.
Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald 5 mins
Can't have people humanized: Israeli agency bans radio clip naming children killed in Gaza http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israel-gaza-conflict-2014/1.606908 … (via @medialens)
Afghanistan,Somalia, in fact almost every country where the parents insurance in old age is their children, or where their religion encourages them to multiply?
notably it is African countries at the top of the fertility index, particularly muslim ones and that the other end of the table is the wealthier end. There are exceptions such as Ukraine and Albania at the low fertility end. The best correlation with low fertility is female education. It also strongly predicts economic development:
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socioeconomic_impact_of_female_education
It is because of the barriers to female education that some parts of the world will remain disproportionally poor and overcrowded. These are often muslim countries thus generating significant pressures on international peace.
You haven't watched the video have you? I didn't dig it out and recommend it to you for the sake of my health. By continuing to post on this subject on the basis of your beliefs when there are the facts one click away just makes you look a complete twat.
"Quite. Plus scientists are reasonably close to developing treatments that won;t just stop ageing, but actually reverse it."
Sorry, but I don't think so. Cell division will eventually kill - to go back and right errors in replication isn't really feasible. Clonal cells can possibly replace in some circumstances, but they will still have to replicate. And there lies the dangers.
Younger brother looks set to take Silver. He does.
'Selling quid coins for 50p is wasting money. The government liquified an asset and sold it for a price well below its market rate. If that's not wasting money I don't know what is.'
In 2007 alone the Royal Mail received a £1.7 billion taxpayer subsidy.
..
Sorry, was that question aimed at the Palestinian government or the Israeli one? The Palestinians after all, control the rockets.
The Palestinian government has to be a candidate for the most irresponsible in history. They have for a number of years attacked a vastly superior power with no thought whatever to what might happen to their citizens if that power turned nasty.
Its a bit like a man looking after a large family prodding a bear with a stick.
Incidentally, we are no country to lecture anyone on the correct reaction to the indiscriminate killing of our citizens by unmanned rockets.
When the Germans fired V1s and V2s at us we turned their cities to rubble.
Stem cells may also be able to revitalise the cells already aged.
But, all things have their season.
In fact almost positively sure.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2054rank.html
I never cease to be amazed by the opprobrium the Right reserve for those that campaign for a better world.
See my answer to Mlacolm G.
By the way, if an Islamic Militant device slightly damaged a bus stop in Primrose Hill, I guess you'd just be laughing that off.
Those crazy Islamists!!!...what will they think of next!!!
http://www.ukip.org/ This is getting absurd. Already 2 UN controlled schools have been found to have their cellars packed with rocket and weapons that Hamas uses, to fire from the schools and the direct vicinity.
Tiresome
You can't honestly believe that people of different political persuasions in this middle of the road country aren't in it to make the world better?