Some voters said that they would struggle to back Ukip because of its “extreme” views (36 per cent) while others felt their vote would be wasted (21 per cent).
He is far more popular with his own side than Mr Miliband is among Labour supporters. Some 90 per cent of Tory voters back Mr Cameron as Prime Minister
This is one of those figures that is pretty longstanding and yet surprises me every time. Most conservative commentators seem lukewarm on Cameron - he has prominent cheerleaders, but plenty who are less than satisfied - and it feels like on every issue he is assailed by rebellious backbenchers and angry grassroots because he is not UKIP enough for their tastes. I wouldn't be surprised that a vocal minority outweigh a silent majority, or that push comes to shove most still back him as PM, but the proportions still surprise me.
The party has seemed less troublesome for the last year though, I'll give them that. Either resigned to defeat so no point in trying to oust him, or genuinely more disciplined than I had thought possible from them, along with a little bit of position strengthening thanks to the economy I'd guess.
Yes, this was the position in June just over a year ago:
"With Ukip snapping at his heels, Tory MPs raging about gay marriage and Europe, not to mention a cohort of disgruntled "swivel-eyed" local activists - it would be an understatement to say that David Cameron is having a bit of trouble with his own party.
Russian ambassador to UK says "counterproductive for governments to announce their versions of disaster"
Like a surprising number of statements from out of the Kremlin, that sounds on the face of it to be pretty reasonable. Also, like an unsurprising number of those statements, it's one the Russians do not follow in practice any more than anyone else, with no hint of self awareness.
As far as I can tell, they haven't proposed their own version of events. They have called for an international investigation.
According the live update on the BBC yesterday their ambassador called for an investigation, followed immediately by saying that whatever happened, ultimate responsibility rests with the Ukrainian government. While that may not signal their take on what brought down the plane, it shows that they, much like Western governments, have already decided how they will interpret whatever indisputable facts emerge - quibbling that that does not equal a proposal of events is meaningless, because while they may not have, they have established their position, which is the effectively the same thing.
It is rank silliness were we to assume the Russians do not engage in the same personal interpretations and games as other powers - the form it will take will merely differ, depending on the situation and how culpable each side may or may not be, though its proxies. Western governments clearly feel their intelligence gives them the upper hand to more directly blame the Russians, but I have no doubt were the facts they think they have less clear, they would be using more circumspect language. Equally, the Russians would have no hesitation in being less circumspect if they had information which better suited their position/less to lose by taking a firmer stance (the latter being key - this issue affects everyone, but the Russians are more central and so are required to be more cautious in language)
The Russians could be 100% right in a lot of things, or close to it, but it is laughable if they or supporters were to suggest they do not operate with the same loose support for international law (international law being endlessly open to interpretation apparently, and so virtually meaningless - it's just about what you think you can get away with) and for independent, impartial investigations and co-operations, that other powers do. It's as hypocritical as when our leaders condemn certain abusive policies and practices, while engaging in either the exact same thing, or something that looks a hell of a lot like it.
Some voters said that they would struggle to back Ukip because of its “extreme” views (36 per cent) while others felt their vote would be wasted (21 per cent).
He is far more popular with his own side than Mr Miliband is among Labour supporters. Some 90 per cent of Tory voters back Mr Cameron as Prime Minister
This is one of those figures that is pretty longstanding and yet surprises me every time. Most conservative commentators seem lukewarm on Cameron - he has prominent cheerleaders, but plenty who are less than satisfied - and it feels like on every issue he is assailed by rebellious backbenchers and angry grassroots because he is not UKIP enough for their tastes. I wouldn't be surprised that a vocal minority outweigh a silent majority, or that push comes to shove most still back him as PM, but the proportions still surprise me.
The party has seemed less troublesome for the last year though, I'll give them that. Either resigned to defeat so no point in trying to oust him, or genuinely more disciplined than I had thought possible from them, along with a little bit of position strengthening thanks to the economy I'd guess.
I don't think "resigned to defeat" is a possibility - anybody remotely sane thinks next year is just too close to call - so discipline it must be.
I fear I am not remotely sane in that case, though I will admit that having predicted a Labour majority since the summer of 2010 (without the balls to put money on it however), I cannot discount the possibility that I would be inclined to see things in a more rosy light for the reds than perhaps may be the case. That being said, while not a supporter of them, for the time being I will stick to saying a Labour majority seems pretty nailed on. I had begun to waver upon crossover, if it had been sustained, but we shall see I guess.
Insiders say an “emotional” Paterson and Cameron had a “blazing row” on Monday night over the decision to remove him. The argument escalated into a confrontation between Paterson’s wife and Lynton Crosby, the Tory strategy guru, at a book launch on Wednesday night.
The Sunday Times has learnt that Rose Paterson marched up to Crosby and said: “What the hell do you think you’re doing?” for firing her husband, widely seen as a Tory who understands rural issues.
Paterson then warned Crosby his dismissal would boost Ukip. “What you don’t understand is that you’ve just pushed rural voters into the hands of Ukip,” he said.
Friends said Paterson and Fox stood together during prime minister’s questions on Wednesday to signal their determination to speak out together. “The message was, ‘We’re going to rough you up,’ ” the Paterson ally said. Another described him as “f****** furious”.
I wouldn't normally quote the Star, and not a pinch of salt, more like a lorry load, but if true...WTF....is there anybody who didn't have a dossier on paedo rings?
I assume that's Jill Dando?
I guess The Star were struggling for a headline and spent this afternoon putting "Jill Dando and Pedophiles" into Google.
Polls all within the margin of error. It will be very interesting to see what's in store for the rest of this year. As for May 2015, I'm very open to all the possibilities, really don't see how anyone can have a firm idea of what's going to happen, just too many imponderables and unknowns in the air at this stage!
Looking for a correction in stockmarkets over the next 4 months or so (Emporito Santo being a canary in the coalmine), and certainly some more ructions around the world flashpoints (Ukraine, Gaza etc). Should see capital gradually flowing into the US as the least dirty shirt amongst Europe and Japan as primary competition, which should finally begin to push up the US Dollar. Thinking there should be one hell of a blow off move in the US stockmarket once we hit lows around October / November this year into late 2015. I'm looking forward to hitching on the ride. And after that, finally the great unravelling can begin. Its a long road.......but you have to respect what the markets and cycles are telling you, even if you don't necessarily want to believe it at first.
There doesn't appear to be too much doubt about the source of the missile that brought down a Malaysian Airlines flight over Eastern Ukraine. Certainly if Russian backed insurgents weren't involved their mates in Moscow seriously need a good PR firm because their response has stank. Its confused, inconsistent and weak.
At the time of the incident, combined Western intelligence included satellites of various types, a now routine AWACS skirting the Western Ukrainian border and a couple of vessels sitting in the Black Sea.
The problem for Western countries however is that they are lacking a major intelligence asset, the Mk.1 Eyeball. Despite the fact there are Western officials in Kiev they lack field intelligence on exactly what is going on the Ukrainian/Russian border. In the run up to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait as well as all the satellite and comms intelligence they had officials watching the movement of the Iraqi military south. They counted the tanks, noted the insignia.
In the current conflict it simply isn't happening. For Western intelligence, therefore, its unclear of the exact nature of actions going on and exactly the extent and type of support the Russians are giving. It is known that a real mix of actors are working in the separatist side, a tremendous proportion of them being imports from any number of regions of the former Soviet Union. Their levels of training & experience are variable and supplied via private military companies (PMCs). Certainly there are reports that little green men, i.e. Russian military regulars have been seen.
Western intelligence can't verify a lot of it other than via the same sources that your Average Joe can get, Youtube videos being a typical case. At the moment they are being used to replace someone with expertise on the ground. Are the Russians sending in directly employed troops? If so, from where? of what type? Who is driving the Russian tanks turning up in Eastern Ukraine, nominally in separatist hands? Is it Russian forces, PMC employees, ex-Russian military recruited direct by the government, or Ukrainians? If the separatists are Ukrainian, where are they being trained up?
Insiders say an “emotional” Paterson and Cameron had a “blazing row” on Monday night over the decision to remove him. The argument escalated into a confrontation between Paterson’s wife and Lynton Crosby, the Tory strategy guru, at a book launch on Wednesday night.
The Sunday Times has learnt that Rose Paterson marched up to Crosby and said: “What the hell do you think you’re doing?” for firing her husband, widely seen as a Tory who understands rural issues.
Paterson then warned Crosby his dismissal would boost Ukip. “What you don’t understand is that you’ve just pushed rural voters into the hands of Ukip,” he said.
Friends said Paterson and Fox stood together during prime minister’s questions on Wednesday to signal their determination to speak out together. “The message was, ‘We’re going to rough you up,’ ” the Paterson ally said. Another described him as “f****** furious”.
If Owen Paterson didn't want to lose his job perhaps he should have done better with the badgers? And the floods?
It's all very well he and his wife ranting and raving but the bottom line was that he was a disastrous Minister.
I notice there's not been much press/media comment over his sacking, so clearly he doesn't have much support on the Tory benches or within the wider media.
I wouldn't normally quote the Star, and not a pinch of salt, more like a lorry load, but if true...WTF....is there anybody who didn't have a dossier on paedo rings?
I assume that's Jill Dando?
I guess The Star were struggling for a headline and spent this afternoon putting "Jill Dando and Pedophiles" into Google.
Some of the theories are quite amazing, LOL...
Fascinating to read those things, I always thought it seemed so odd and out of place at the time of her murder and the fact that its never been solved. You just get the feeling that so many of the establishment have got it coming to them in spades, and its going to be fascinating when all the many revelations out there are made................
Disclaimer: WIN/Gallup International Association or its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C which is no longer a member of Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion polling other than its own. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll).
Quirk of corporate history. Hope the below explains:
Just before the start of World War II, Gallup, with the assistance of a number of noted survey research academics, established what would eventually become an association of independent polling organizations representing almost 50 countries.
As clients extended their research efforts overseas, Gallup's leadership concluded that the company's loose, informal network of independent affiliates, typically owned by local shareholders, would not serve Gallup's future well. The situation was further complicated by the fact that many of the affiliates had acquired the right to use the Gallup name in their respective countries. Gallup's leadership, therefore, decided to rectify the situation in these nations by either acquiring the organizations in question or by establishing start-up operations. As of this writing, Gallup owns Gallup-named operations in 20 nations and maintains offices in 40 major cities around the world.
Insiders say an “emotional” Paterson and Cameron had a “blazing row” on Monday night over the decision to remove him. The argument escalated into a confrontation between Paterson’s wife and Lynton Crosby, the Tory strategy guru, at a book launch on Wednesday night.
The Sunday Times has learnt that Rose Paterson marched up to Crosby and said: “What the hell do you think you’re doing?” for firing her husband, widely seen as a Tory who understands rural issues.
Paterson then warned Crosby his dismissal would boost Ukip. “What you don’t understand is that you’ve just pushed rural voters into the hands of Ukip,” he said.
Friends said Paterson and Fox stood together during prime minister’s questions on Wednesday to signal their determination to speak out together. “The message was, ‘We’re going to rough you up,’ ” the Paterson ally said. Another described him as “f****** furious”.
If Owen Paterson didn't want to lose his job perhaps he should have done better with the badgers? And the floods?
It's all very well he and his wife ranting and raving but the bottom line was that he was a disastrous Minister.
I notice there's not been much press/media comment over his sacking, so clearly he doesn't have much support on the Tory benches or within the wider media.
Not being a disastrous minister by itself would not have saved him no doubt, plenty of people have been disastrous at their jobs and yet continued on. As you point out, his sacking has not generated much negative comment, so the key would have been to have been to be a better politician so that his sacking would have been condemned.
Paterson then warned Crosby his dismissal would boost Ukip. “What you don’t understand is that you’ve just pushed rural voters into the hands of Ukip,” he said.
How can his dismissal boost UKIP when 99% of people have never heard of him?
And even if a (tiny) number of rural voters were to move Con to UKIP so what - how many marginals are there in rural areas?
The fact he makes such comments suggests he is way out of touch with reality.
Cameron is trying to win an election - he is absolutely right to get rid of people like Paterson - whilst his impact is only very marginal it is negative, not positive.
There doesn't appear to be too much doubt about the source of the missile that brought down a Malaysian Airlines flight over Eastern Ukraine. Certainly if Russian backed insurgents weren't involved their mates in Moscow seriously need a good PR firm because their response has stank. Its confused, inconsistent and weak.
At the time of the incident, combined Western intelligence included satellites of various types, a now routine AWACS skirting the Western Ukrainian border and a couple of vessels sitting in the Black Sea.
The problem for Western countries however is that they are lacking a major intelligence asset, the Mk.1 Eyeball. Despite the fact there are Western officials in Kiev they lack field intelligence on exactly what is going on the Ukrainian/Russian border. In the run up to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait as well as all the satellite and comms intelligence they had officials watching the movement of the Iraqi military south. They counted the tanks, noted the insignia.
In the current conflict it simply isn't happening. For Western intelligence, therefore, its unclear of the exact nature of actions going on and exactly the extent and type of support the Russians are giving. It is known that a real mix of actors are working in the separatist side, a tremendous proportion of them being imports from any number of regions of the former Soviet Union. Their levels of training & experience are variable and supplied via private military companies (PMCs). Certainly there are reports that little green men, i.e. Russian military regulars have been seen.
Western intelligence can't verify a lot of it other than via the same sources that your Average Joe can get, Youtube videos being a typical case. At the moment they are being used to replace someone with expertise on the ground. Are the Russians sending in directly employed troops? If so, from where? of what type? Who is driving the Russian tanks turning up in Eastern Ukraine, nominally in separatist hands? Is it Russian forces, PMC employees, ex-Russian military recruited direct by the government, or Ukrainians? If the separatists are Ukrainian, where are they being trained up?
Western intelligence doesn't fully know.
Whatever the exact truth, what is being missed in the West is the extent to which Putin wishes to divert attention from the domestic situation in Russia. Their economy is in decline, and really not performing great, and the threats of US and EU sanctions is hardly helping the uncertain situation. Its a tragedy that the ordinary Russian sees how well Russia is doing purely in terms of how much land they have under their control, instead of their ability to make the most of all the land that they have got. Plus ca change.
Paterson then warned Crosby his dismissal would boost Ukip. “What you don’t understand is that you’ve just pushed rural voters into the hands of Ukip,” he said.
How thoroughly self-important.
There are few politicians that have that much of an impact on voting intention.
And this rural voter is very happy with Cameron's government.
I confidently predict that UKIP will win precisely no rural constituencies in 2015.
Paterson then warned Crosby his dismissal would boost Ukip. “What you don’t understand is that you’ve just pushed rural voters into the hands of Ukip,” he said.
How thoroughly self-important.
There are few politicians that have that much of an impact on voting intention.
And this rural voter is very happy with Cameron's government.
I confidently predict that UKIP will win precisely no rural constituencies in 2015.
Outside of North Shropshire, I should think a maximum of 2% of the population know of Owen Paterson - what a deluded fool.
Paterson then warned Crosby his dismissal would boost Ukip. “What you don’t understand is that you’ve just pushed rural voters into the hands of Ukip,” he said.
How thoroughly self-important.
There are few politicians that have that much of an impact on voting intention.
And this rural voter is very happy with Cameron's government.
I confidently predict that UKIP will win precisely no rural constituencies in 2015.
Outside of North Shropshire, I should think a maximum of 2% of the population know of Owen Paterson - what a deluded fool.
There doesn't appear to be too much doubt about the source of the missile that brought down a Malaysian Airlines flight over Eastern Ukraine. Certainly if Russian backed insurgents weren't involved their mates in Moscow seriously need a good PR firm because their response has stank. Its confused, inconsistent and weak.
At the time of the incident, combined Western intelligence included satellites of various types, a now routine AWACS skirting the Western Ukrainian border and a couple of vessels sitting in the Black Sea.
The problem for Western countries however is that they are lacking a major intelligence asset, the Mk.1 Eyeball. Despite the fact there are Western officials in Kiev they lack field intelligence on exactly what is going on the Ukrainian/Russian border. In the run up to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait as well as all the satellite and comms intelligence they had officials watching the movement of the Iraqi military south. They counted the tanks, noted the insignia.
In the current conflict it simply isn't happening. For Western intelligence, therefore, its unclear of the exact nature of actions going on and exactly the extent and type of support the Russians are giving. It is known that a real mix of actors are working in the separatist side, a tremendous proportion of them being imports from any number of regions of the former Soviet Union. Their levels of training & experience are variable and supplied via private military companies (PMCs). Certainly there are reports that little green men, i.e. Russian military regulars have been seen.
Western intelligence can't verify a lot of it other than via the same sources that your Average Joe can get, Youtube videos being a typical case. At the moment they are being used to replace someone with expertise on the ground. Are the Russians sending in directly employed troops? If so, from where? of what type? Who is driving the Russian tanks turning up in Eastern Ukraine, nominally in separatist hands? Is it Russian forces, PMC employees, ex-Russian military recruited direct by the government, or Ukrainians? If the separatists are Ukrainian, where are they being trained up?
Western intelligence doesn't fully know.
Fascinating and appreciated as always.
A slightly different question: do the Ukrainians themselves know? I would be surprised if they didn't have informants etc?
There doesn't appear to be too much doubt about the source of the missile that brought down a Malaysian Airlines flight over Eastern Ukraine. Certainly if Russian backed insurgents weren't involved their mates in Moscow seriously need a good PR firm because their response has stank. Its confused, inconsistent and weak.
At the time of the incident, combined Western intelligence included satellites of various types, a now routine AWACS skirting the Western Ukrainian border and a couple of vessels sitting in the Black Sea.
The problem for Western countries however is that they are lacking a major intelligence asset, the Mk.1 Eyeball. Despite the fact there are Western officials in Kiev they lack field intelligence on exactly what is going on the Ukrainian/Russian border. In the run up to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait as well as all the satellite and comms intelligence they had officials watching the movement of the Iraqi military south. They counted the tanks, noted the insignia.
In the current conflict it simply isn't happening. For Western intelligence, therefore, its unclear of the exact nature of actions going on and exactly the extent and type of support the Russians are giving. It is known that a real mix of actors are working in the separatist side, a tremendous proportion of them being imports from any number of regions of the former Soviet Union. Their levels of training & experience are variable and supplied via private military companies (PMCs). Certainly there are reports that little green men, i.e. Russian military regulars have been seen.
Western intelligence can't verify a lot of it other than via the same sources that your Average Joe can get, Youtube videos being a typical case. At the moment they are being used to replace someone with expertise on the ground. Are the Russians sending in directly employed troops? If so, from where? of what type? Who is driving the Russian tanks turning up in Eastern Ukraine, nominally in separatist hands? Is it Russian forces, PMC employees, ex-Russian military recruited direct by the government, or Ukrainians? If the separatists are Ukrainian, where are they being trained up?
Western intelligence doesn't fully know.
Fascinating and appreciated as always.
A slightly different question: do the Ukrainians themselves know? I would be surprised if they didn't have informants etc?
To a point yes and you'd assume that information is passed on to the liaison officers in Kiev. To depend on that information is not the wisest course, however.
3 TO 4% Lab lead been pretty steady since March. Really no swingback unless ICM is right and all other pollsters are wrong.
Which I personally see as unlikely.
I am aware some disagree and think ICM is right, We will see interesting 40 weeks ahead.
One point possibly of note is that the govt have a 5% lead over the opposition.
But on another note, re the 'polling average' -- LD are down 14% since the election. I find it hard to see they have gone to UKIP, some will have gone to Greens. There seems little point in LD voters going over to coalition partners. But Labour are only up 6. Where have the LD voters gone. If indeed they have gone to Labour then that means a swathe of labour voters have moved to compensate. Does that make sense? What sense do these numbers make?
Polls all within the margin of error. It will be very interesting to see what's in store for the rest of this year. As for May 2015, I'm very open to all the possibilities, really don't see how anyone can have a firm idea of what's going to happen, just too many imponderables and unknowns in the air at this stage!
Looking for a correction in stockmarkets over the next 4 months or so (Emporito Santo being a canary in the coalmine), and certainly some more ructions around the world flashpoints (Ukraine, Gaza etc). Should see capital gradually flowing into the US as the least dirty shirt amongst Europe and Japan as primary competition, which should finally begin to push up the US Dollar. Thinking there should be one hell of a blow off move in the US stockmarket once we hit lows around October / November this year into late 2015. I'm looking forward to hitching on the ride. And after that, finally the great unravelling can begin. Its a long road.......but you have to respect what the markets and cycles are telling you, even if you don't necessarily want to believe it at first.
I have access to our company's sales worldwide. We only sell to manufacturing industry. There has been good growth in the first half of the year. However, it went "over the cliff" in July.
OK only 14 days so far. We cannot draw conclusions yet. But something is going on.
(reassuringly he isn't informing the nation tonight that we're about to bomb the hell out of Moscow )
Interesting link - although I'm not that sure about your appendix. The story says 'David Cameron’s Cabinet reshuffle has boosted the Conservatives’ chances at the next election as most voters give his new ministerial team their approval, a new poll shows. The ORB International survey for the Telegraph shows that six in ten voters believe the reshuffle - which demoted Michael Gove and promoted several female ministers - was “a step in the right direction” for the Tories. '
These OBR people may of course be a bunch of idiots - but on the face of it the reshuffle should not be used by the inveterate Cameron bashers. It paints Cameron as rather wise.
Well, there's some new and interesting news arriving about BES / ESFG, although I would caution that this is largely rumour at this point.
Apparently, BES's Angolan subsidiary BESA (Bank Espirto Santo Angola) is sitting on many billions of non-performing loans, and the Angolan government is considering nationalising it. Of course Angola is an ex-Portuguese colony so there are good reasons for the commercial links. However, the size of the non-performing loans is - relative to disclosed ESFG exposure of c. €1.2bn - enormous. Apparently, the Angolan central bank has had to step in to guarantee c. €4bn of loans. (5% of Angola GDP).
It is not clear if any of these loans have any thing to do with the Espirito Santo family and ESFG, or whether BES has just been a very poor lender in one of Africa's faster growing economies.
Right now, it is not clear how much of the banks' equity sits in Angola. Can BES walk away from BESA? What happens if BESA is nationalised? How serious is the Angolan government about guaranteeing bad loans?
I have access to our company's sales worldwide. We only sell to manufacturing industry. There has been good growth in the first half of the year. However, it went "over the cliff" in July.
OK only 14 days so far. We cannot draw conclusions yet. But something is going on.
I finally think GBPUSD has topped out just under 1.72 - I never thought it would make it that far, but it has. I sense that the capital that has been trying to get off the grid out of the rickety European banking system, and that has been finding a home in prime London property has been slowing up over the past few months, which has been a big factor behind the rise of Sterling over the past year or so.
Increasing geopolitical risk in Europe over the coming months is going to push capital into the US I think. I'd like a correction on the US markets which I think would be healthy after the relentless rise from October 2011 pretty much. Its clear that the US is on a different cycle to Europe as a whole, US markets have still been making upward progress whilst most European markets apart from the German DAX have largely been trading sideways. Peripheral Europe has been showing weakness however over the past few months and Emporito Santo etc only heightens those concerns. I see the capital that remains in Europe flowing to Germany over the next 4 months. Once we get this correction out of the way, there is still enough US corporates that are yielding more than cash, so its still a no-brainer to go there for the moment, and critically whilst expectations of a rising market are still intact, it'll support capital flows there. It seems crazy, but I could see the Dow getting to 25/26k after the correction over the next 4 months, before the great deflation hits. There's still enough nay sayers and retail still hasn't really bought into this market in a big way.
Well, there's some new and interesting news arriving about BES / ESFG, although I would caution that this is largely rumour at this point.
Apparently, BES's Angolan subsidiary BESA (Bank Espirto Santo Angola) is sitting on many billions of non-performing loans, and the Angolan government is considering nationalising it. Of course Angola is an ex-Portuguese colony so there are good reasons for the commercial links. However, the size of the non-performing loans is - relative to disclosed ESFG exposure of c. €1.2bn - enormous. Apparently, the Angolan central bank has had to step in to guarantee c. €4bn of loans. (5% of Angola GDP).
It is not clear if any of these loans have any thing to do with the Espirito Santo family and ESFG, or whether BES has just been a very poor lender in one of Africa's faster growing economies.
Right now, it is not clear how much of the banks' equity sits in Angola. Can BES walk away from BESA? What happens if BESA is nationalised? How serious is the Angolan government about guaranteeing bad loans?
Unravelling who owns what and exactly where the trail leads is fraught at the best of times. I suspect we'll get other revelations about European banks in the periphery of the Eurozone. As bad as things are, I expect the ructions over the next 4 months will lead Draghi to launch full QE in the Eurozone when enough pressure finally comes on Angela Merkel and the Germans, but it will take until October / November I would have thought for events to come to the boil. Euro should fall against the US Dollar in expectation of this move. I'm still looking at late September / early October 2015 for the great turn, so I'd expect Eurozone QE to hold up the deck of cards for the best part of another year.......
He said in a mocking tone: “David Axelrod, you might have heard of this bloke, he’s the guy from America who came over, pro-bono virtually, to help us out in terms of Labour’s campaign.
“He says these cost of living policies in and of themselves are very good, tactically, but do they add together? No.
“Now you could have paid me to say that, but it is right. You need that external critique.”
Wonder if we will get a post on here like this the day before the election "I cannot understand how PB Kinnocks are so happy with a 4% lead, they should be doing better than this".
Wonder if we will get a post on here like this the day before the election "I cannot understand how PB Kinnocks are so happy with a 4% lead, they should be doing better than this".
Wonder if we will get a post on here like this the day before the election "I cannot understand how PB Kinnocks are so happy with a 4% lead, they should be doing better than this".
No bet on that.
Night all.
True....it will be rats in a sack time by then. There will be so many people to blame for it, there just isn't enough popcorn in the world to enjoy it to the full.
Mirror naming more names in its continued campaign over establishment paedo ring. Again the names of those mentioned are all dead.
Certainly doesn't seem afraid to name names as far as Tories go! Somehow, I think this is going to prove even more damaging to the establishment than parliamentary expenses ever were.
Cameron upping the stakes with Putin in a big way. What's the future of Londongrad and all that Russian money parked here?
Stephen Fisher is not alone in his assessment of the likely GE outcome - he is joined by other intellectuals, including Rod Crosby, Robert Smithson and, dare one say it, JackW's ARSE, etc, etc. Those who ignore this collective brain power do so at their peril!
I'm thinking that we should have a PB poll and thread where people post their predictions.
I am keeping track of everyone's prognostications - RobD is graphing it all...
Mirror naming more names in its continued campaign over establishment paedo ring. Again the names of those mentioned are all dead.
Certainly doesn't seem afraid to name names as far as Tories go! Somehow, I think this is going to prove even more damaging to the establishment than parliamentary expenses ever were.
Cameron upping the stakes with Putin in a big way. What's the future of Londongrad and all that Russian money parked here?
To be fair, they have named I think 2 Labour individuals, but not exactly surprisingly their slant. Not quite the BBC-esque, where they managed to cover the fact a former Labour minister and speaker has been accused very very quietly and without mentioning his party once, where as Leon Brittan got it blasted front and cente.
I think the Mirror are getting a lot of their info from ExaroNews.
ExaroNews are claiming 2 MPs now have audio recording in relation to a specific event and are deciding what to do with it. And that Granada are going to run a special relating to two high profile former politicians from the North West on Monday.
Well, there's some new and interesting news arriving about BES / ESFG, although I would caution that this is largely rumour at this point.
Apparently, BES's Angolan subsidiary BESA (Bank Espirto Santo Angola) is sitting on many billions of non-performing loans, and the Angolan government is considering nationalising it. Of course Angola is an ex-Portuguese colony so there are good reasons for the commercial links. However, the size of the non-performing loans is - relative to disclosed ESFG exposure of c. €1.2bn - enormous. Apparently, the Angolan central bank has had to step in to guarantee c. €4bn of loans. (5% of Angola GDP).
It is not clear if any of these loans have any thing to do with the Espirito Santo family and ESFG, or whether BES has just been a very poor lender in one of Africa's faster growing economies.
Right now, it is not clear how much of the banks' equity sits in Angola. Can BES walk away from BESA? What happens if BESA is nationalised? How serious is the Angolan government about guaranteeing bad loans?
Isn't Angola a country with one of the biggest rich-poor gaps in the world, where the capital is incredibly wealthy in parts and other parts are very, very poor ?
Unravelling who owns what and exactly where the trail leads is fraught at the best of times. I suspect we'll get other revelations about European banks in the periphery of the Eurozone. As bad as things are, I expect the ructions over the next 4 months will lead Draghi to launch full QE in the Eurozone when enough pressure finally comes on Angela Merkel and the Germans, but it will take until October / November I would have thought for events to come to the boil. Euro should fall against the US Dollar in expectation of this move. I'm still looking at late September / early October 2015 for the great turn, so I'd expect Eurozone QE to hold up the deck of cards for the best part of another year.......
I think everyone would welcome a weaker Euro - certainly, the Euro's strength has been a major headache in Madrid, Lisbon and Athens. Betting (wrongly) on a weaker Euro has also been a very crowded hedge fund trade, which has helped macro funds (in aggregate) to lose money in three of the first four months of 2014.
Generally, I am more optimistic about prospects that you are. There has been a monumental amount of deleveraging in (most) of the Eurozone economies (France and Portugal being the most notable exceptions). Net corporate saving was 6% of GDP in Spain last year, and something similar in Ireland. Personal debt remains incredibly modest (sub 60% of GDP) in the big three Eurozone economies of Germany, France and Italy, against 150%+ in the UK and the US. In addition, Eurozone banks are (with a fair few exceptions) much better capitalised than they were.
I'd also expect the next headache to appear far from where people expect it. The auditors have been all over CaixaBank's books, and liquidation of property portfolios in Spain in not triggering incremental writedowns, which tells us that - by and large - loans have been correctly marked down.
My money would be on a Chinese slowdown causing weaker capital goods orders in Germany and Sweden. It might then turn out that German Landesbanks were more aggressive in lending to smaller German companies than was expected, and that - because of supposed support from local governments - they have been exempt from proper scrutiny. When politics meets banking, writedowns almost always occur.
Insiders say an “emotional” Paterson and Cameron had a “blazing row” on Monday night over the decision to remove him. The argument escalated into a confrontation between Paterson’s wife and Lynton Crosby, the Tory strategy guru, at a book launch on Wednesday night.
The Sunday Times has learnt that Rose Paterson marched up to Crosby and said: “What the hell do you think you’re doing?” for firing her husband, widely seen as a Tory who understands rural issues.
Paterson then warned Crosby his dismissal would boost Ukip. “What you don’t understand is that you’ve just pushed rural voters into the hands of Ukip,” he said.
Friends said Paterson and Fox stood together during prime minister’s questions on Wednesday to signal their determination to speak out together. “The message was, ‘We’re going to rough you up,’ ” the Paterson ally said. Another described him as “f****** furious”.
If Owen Paterson didn't want to lose his job perhaps he should have done better with the badgers? And the floods?
It's all very well he and his wife ranting and raving but the bottom line was that he was a disastrous Minister.
I notice there's not been much press/media comment over his sacking, so clearly he doesn't have much support on the Tory benches or within the wider media.
Liz Truss, whilst admittedly easier on the eye than Owen Patterson, is continuing the exact same badger policy.
Well, there's some new and interesting news arriving about BES / ESFG, although I would caution that this is largely rumour at this point.
Apparently, BES's Angolan subsidiary BESA (Bank Espirto Santo Angola) is sitting on many billions of non-performing loans, and the Angolan government is considering nationalising it. Of course Angola is an ex-Portuguese colony so there are good reasons for the commercial links. However, the size of the non-performing loans is - relative to disclosed ESFG exposure of c. €1.2bn - enormous. Apparently, the Angolan central bank has had to step in to guarantee c. €4bn of loans. (5% of Angola GDP).
It is not clear if any of these loans have any thing to do with the Espirito Santo family and ESFG, or whether BES has just been a very poor lender in one of Africa's faster growing economies.
Right now, it is not clear how much of the banks' equity sits in Angola. Can BES walk away from BESA? What happens if BESA is nationalised? How serious is the Angolan government about guaranteeing bad loans?
Isn't Angola a country with one of the biggest rich-poor gaps in the world, where the capital is incredibly wealthy in parts and other parts are very, very poor ?
Yes. It's the usual potent mixture of corruption and oil money.
Wonder if we will get a post on here like this the day before the election "I cannot understand how PB Kinnocks are so happy with a 4% lead, they should be doing better than this".
Ed is Crap!
As Ed is driving up the Mall TSE will be penning a thread for his PB Tories about swingback
But on another note, re the 'polling average' -- LD are down 14% since the election. I find it hard to see they have gone to UKIP, some will have gone to Greens. There seems little point in LD voters going over to coalition partners. But Labour are only up 6. Where have the LD voters gone. If indeed they have gone to Labour then that means a swathe of labour voters have moved to compensate. Does that make sense? What sense do these numbers make?
It's not a mystery - any recent poll explains. E.g. the last YG poll was 30% of 2010 LibDems voting LibDem, 40% voting Labour, 12% UKIP, 8% Green, 8% Tory, 2% SNP. Different polls vary a bit but are essentially similar. Just 1% of 2010 Labour voters plan to vote LibDem, not really a swathe. http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/b9a0fa5ouk/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-170714.pdf
I would love to know if the questions were asked without Gove's name attached. I think it backs up that the public cautiously support what Gove has tried to do, but his name being attached to them brings a big negative reaction.
I was a respondent in that poll - pretty sure Gove's name wasn't attached to the policies, though there was a specific question about whether he was too combative. I don't think most of the public has a strong view on what he was doing - I'd be amazed if more than 25% could tell you the difference between a free school, an academy, and an LEA school. Insofar as they have a view, they just vaguely think he seemed to get into a lot of fights over details like particular schoolbooks and WW1 history.
Wonder if we will get a post on here like this the day before the election "I cannot understand how PB Kinnocks are so happy with a 4% lead, they should be doing better than this".
Ed is Crap!
As Ed is driving up the Mall TSE will be penning a thread for his PB Tories about swingback
LOL!. AS Ed stands in front of number 10. TSE will have found a subsection of the latest ICM poll showing one eyed self employed Jamaican plumbers with a stammer are 85% more likely to vote Tory than Labour to rally the PB Hodges and will make sure it is Number 1 on Nighthawks.
Lembit Opik is not just an embarrassment to the Liberal Democrats, he is an embarrassment to the human race. The people of Montgomery did democracy a great service at the last general election.
Well, there's some new and interesting news arriving about BES / ESFG, although I would caution that this is largely rumour at this point.
Apparently, BES's Angolan subsidiary BESA (Bank Espirto Santo Angola) is sitting on many billions of non-performing loans, and the Angolan government is considering nationalising it. Of course Angola is an ex-Portuguese colony so there are good reasons for the commercial links. However, the size of the non-performing loans is - relative to disclosed ESFG exposure of c. €1.2bn - enormous. Apparently, the Angolan central bank has had to step in to guarantee c. €4bn of loans. (5% of Angola GDP).
It is not clear if any of these loans have any thing to do with the Espirito Santo family and ESFG, or whether BES has just been a very poor lender in one of Africa's faster growing economies.
Right now, it is not clear how much of the banks' equity sits in Angola. Can BES walk away from BESA? What happens if BESA is nationalised? How serious is the Angolan government about guaranteeing bad loans?
That's not new info? I thought a major reason for the plunge was the concern that the Angolan government guarantee wasn't worth much - i.e. that the bad debt situation would have more of an impact on the BES balance sheet if the loans are properly marketed as u/p
More interesting for me is the Portugal Telecom link. It seems like there was something odd going on: using bank deposits to buy CP in the firm thinking it was "risk free" (Reuters ascribes this motive to PT) suggests either the PT treasury team consists of f***ing muppets...or that there was some kind of unwritten guarantee from the family...i.e. that they were manipulating their CP in the market
Wonder if we will get a post on here like this the day before the election "I cannot understand how PB Kinnocks are so happy with a 4% lead, they should be doing better than this".
Ed is Crap!
As Ed is driving up the Mall TSE will be penning a thread for his PB Tories about swingback
And you'll be here to rub our noses in it. Ohhhhhh how we tremble in fear at the great smarming due to us all. Ed is crap really IS PM! Oh, shit, he's crap. Wish someone had warned us.
Still, at least the lazy will get their benefits and the borders will be sexily leaky
Sri Lanka need 260 runs with 9 wickets in hand to beat South Africa. Whilst they are in a decent 4th innings position, 110-1 at close on day 4; 370 is an enourmous total to chase.
2.5 looks too short to me to chase the runs, lay of Lanka @ 2.5 to £5 profit.
SA don't need 10 wickets to manage this, a blitz from Steyn at any point should slow the rate enough to draw...
Wonder if we will get a post on here like this the day before the election "I cannot understand how PB Kinnocks are so happy with a 4% lead, they should be doing better than this".
Ed is Crap!
As Ed is driving up the Mall TSE will be penning a thread for his PB Tories about swingback
And you'll be here to rub our noses in it. Ohhhhhh how we tremble in fear at the great smarming due to us all. Ed is crap really IS PM! Oh, shit, he's crap. Wish someone had warned us.
Still, at least the lazy will get their benefits and the borders will be sexily leaky
If, by any chance, the labour figures hold up and DC and GO leave Downing Street next May, what jobs would be available to them? Can't see either of them being LotO.
The US Lecture circuit at around £100,000 a pop, like Blair, Brown, etc.?
Do you have any evidence of Brown making money on the Lecture circuit for personal gain ?
I didn't state that Brown had made money for personal gain on the US lecture circuit, although this piece from The Daily Telegraph, dating back to February 2012, refers to "Mr Brown’s role as Global Leader in Residence at New York University [having] earned him more than £180,000 in fees and expenses."
Given nearly all the money in his charity goes to expenses for him and his wife to fly first class round the world , you could say it was personal holidays at worst.
Where have the LD voters gone. If indeed they have gone to Labour then that means a swathe of labour voters have moved to compensate. Does that make sense? What sense do these numbers make?
It's not a mystery - any recent poll explains. E.g. the last YG poll was 30% of 2010 LibDems voting LibDem, 40% voting Labour, 12% UKIP, 8% Green, 8% Tory, 2% SNP. Different polls vary a bit but are essentially similar. Just 1% of 2010 Labour voters plan to vote LibDem, not really a swathe. http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/b9a0fa5ouk/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-170714.pdf
Nick, Don't forget that an awful lot of 2010 LDs say they DK/WV. In You Gov, it's about a fifth to quarter of the total 2010 LD vote. That about twice as many for Lab/Con.
Of the remainder, recent average is c34 Lab, c30 LD, c14 c10 UKIP.
But if you think of it in "Share of all 2010 LDs' It's more like 24% Won't Vote, 26% Lab, c23% LD, c11 Con etc etc.
Whether those non-voters decide to vote or not, and who for, will be key, I suspect.
Comments
"With Ukip snapping at his heels, Tory MPs raging about gay marriage and Europe, not to mention a cohort of disgruntled "swivel-eyed" local activists - it would be an understatement to say that David Cameron is having a bit of trouble with his own party.
In a sign of the precarious position in which the prime minister appears to find himself, one senior Tory told the Guardian today that it was "worse than John Major" and that it "could be terminal" for his leadership." http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/05/21/david-cameron-leadership_n_3311125.html
I don't think "resigned to defeat" is a possibility - anybody remotely sane thinks next year is just too close to call - so discipline it must be.
It is rank silliness were we to assume the Russians do not engage in the same personal interpretations and games as other powers - the form it will take will merely differ, depending on the situation and how culpable each side may or may not be, though its proxies. Western governments clearly feel their intelligence gives them the upper hand to more directly blame the Russians, but I have no doubt were the facts they think they have less clear, they would be using more circumspect language. Equally, the Russians would have no hesitation in being less circumspect if they had information which better suited their position/less to lose by taking a firmer stance (the latter being key - this issue affects everyone, but the Russians are more central and so are required to be more cautious in language)
The Russians could be 100% right in a lot of things, or close to it, but it is laughable if they or supporters were to suggest they do not operate with the same loose support for international law (international law being endlessly open to interpretation apparently, and so virtually meaningless - it's just about what you think you can get away with) and for independent, impartial investigations and co-operations, that other powers do. It's as hypocritical as when our leaders condemn certain abusive policies and practices, while engaging in either the exact same thing, or something that looks a hell of a lot like it.
YouGov/Sunday Times CON 32% LAB 37% LDEM 9% UKIP 13%
ED is Crap is PM just over 40 weeks to go
RT @ayestotheright: In Sun Tel, Owen Paterson attacks green lobby, says got more death threats at DEFRA than as NI Secretary
Insiders say an “emotional” Paterson and Cameron had a “blazing row” on Monday night over the decision to remove him. The argument escalated into a confrontation between Paterson’s wife and Lynton Crosby, the Tory strategy guru, at a book launch on Wednesday night.
The Sunday Times has learnt that Rose Paterson marched up to Crosby and said: “What the hell do you think you’re doing?” for firing her husband, widely seen as a Tory who understands rural issues.
Paterson then warned Crosby his dismissal would boost Ukip. “What you don’t understand is that you’ve just pushed rural voters into the hands of Ukip,” he said.
Friends said Paterson and Fox stood together during prime minister’s questions on Wednesday to signal their determination to speak out together. “The message was, ‘We’re going to rough you up,’ ” the Paterson ally said. Another described him as “f****** furious”.
Lab .... 35%
Con .....31%
LD ........9%
Wouldnt a better measure be say if the polls had moved.
Well if last 2 YG are anything to go by not in the right direction
Which I personally see as unlikely.
I am aware some disagree and think ICM is right, We will see interesting 40 weeks ahead.
I guess The Star were struggling for a headline and spent this afternoon putting "Jill Dando and Pedophiles" into Google.
Some of the theories are quite amazing, LOL...
Looking for a correction in stockmarkets over the next 4 months or so (Emporito Santo being a canary in the coalmine), and certainly some more ructions around the world flashpoints (Ukraine, Gaza etc). Should see capital gradually flowing into the US as the least dirty shirt amongst Europe and Japan as primary competition, which should finally begin to push up the US Dollar. Thinking there should be one hell of a blow off move in the US stockmarket once we hit lows around October / November this year into late 2015. I'm looking forward to hitching on the ride. And after that, finally the great unravelling can begin. Its a long road.......but you have to respect what the markets and cycles are telling you, even if you don't necessarily want to believe it at first.
5,2,1,2,3,7,4,3,5,3,4,3,7,5 (Average lead 3.86%
There doesn't appear to be too much doubt about the source of the missile that brought down a Malaysian Airlines flight over Eastern Ukraine. Certainly if Russian backed insurgents weren't involved their mates in Moscow seriously need a good PR firm because their response has stank. Its confused, inconsistent and weak.
At the time of the incident, combined Western intelligence included satellites of various types, a now routine AWACS skirting the Western Ukrainian border and a couple of vessels sitting in the Black Sea.
The problem for Western countries however is that they are lacking a major intelligence asset, the Mk.1 Eyeball. Despite the fact there are Western officials in Kiev they lack field intelligence on exactly what is going on the Ukrainian/Russian border. In the run up to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait as well as all the satellite and comms intelligence they had officials watching the movement of the Iraqi military south. They counted the tanks, noted the insignia.
In the current conflict it simply isn't happening. For Western intelligence, therefore, its unclear of the exact nature of actions going on and exactly the extent and type of support the Russians are giving. It is known that a real mix of actors are working in the separatist side, a tremendous proportion of them being imports from any number of regions of the former Soviet Union. Their levels of training & experience are variable and supplied via private military companies (PMCs). Certainly there are reports that little green men, i.e. Russian military regulars have been seen.
Western intelligence can't verify a lot of it other than via the same sources that your Average Joe can get, Youtube videos being a typical case. At the moment they are being used to replace someone with expertise on the ground. Are the Russians sending in directly employed troops? If so, from where? of what type? Who is driving the Russian tanks turning up in Eastern Ukraine, nominally in separatist hands? Is it Russian forces, PMC employees, ex-Russian military recruited direct by the government, or Ukrainians? If the separatists are Ukrainian, where are they being trained up?
Western intelligence doesn't fully know.
It's all very well he and his wife ranting and raving but the bottom line was that he was a disastrous Minister.
I notice there's not been much press/media comment over his sacking, so clearly he doesn't have much support on the Tory benches or within the wider media.
Just before the start of World War II, Gallup, with the assistance of a number of noted survey research academics, established what would eventually become an association of independent polling organizations representing almost 50 countries.
http://www.gallup.com/corporate/1357/corporate-history.aspx#2
In the 1990s:
As clients extended their research efforts overseas, Gallup's leadership concluded that the company's loose, informal network of independent affiliates, typically owned by local shareholders, would not serve Gallup's future well. The situation was further complicated by the fact that many of the affiliates had acquired the right to use the Gallup name in their respective countries. Gallup's leadership, therefore, decided to rectify the situation in these nations by either acquiring the organizations in question or by establishing start-up operations. As of this writing, Gallup owns Gallup-named operations in 20 nations and maintains offices in 40 major cities around the world.
http://www.gallup.com/corporate/1357/corporate-history.aspx#4
This is there website: http://www.opinion.co.uk/
I wonder whether ORB might be the pollster that does Lord Ashcroft's fieldwork?
And even if a (tiny) number of rural voters were to move Con to UKIP so what - how many marginals are there in rural areas?
The fact he makes such comments suggests he is way out of touch with reality.
Cameron is trying to win an election - he is absolutely right to get rid of people like Paterson - whilst his impact is only very marginal it is negative, not positive.
There are few politicians that have that much of an impact on voting intention.
And this rural voter is very happy with Cameron's government.
I confidently predict that UKIP will win precisely no rural constituencies in 2015.
March 4%
April 4%.
May 3%
June 4%
July 4%
A slightly different question: do the Ukrainians themselves know? I would be surprised if they didn't have informants etc?
But on another note, re the 'polling average' -- LD are down 14% since the election. I find it hard to see they have gone to UKIP, some will have gone to Greens. There seems little point in LD voters going over to coalition partners. But Labour are only up 6. Where have the LD voters gone. If indeed they have gone to Labour then that means a swathe of labour voters have moved to compensate. Does that make sense?
What sense do these numbers make?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10977324/The-reshuffle-was-a-victory-for-sturdy-Tory-pragmatism.html
(reassuringly he isn't informing the nation tonight that we're about to bomb the hell out of Moscow
OK only 14 days so far. We cannot draw conclusions yet. But something is going on.
The story says
'David Cameron’s Cabinet reshuffle has boosted the Conservatives’ chances at the next election as most voters give his new ministerial team their approval, a new poll shows.
The ORB International survey for the Telegraph shows that six in ten voters believe the reshuffle - which demoted Michael Gove and promoted several female ministers - was “a step in the right direction” for the Tories. '
These OBR people may of course be a bunch of idiots - but on the face of it the reshuffle should not be used by the inveterate Cameron bashers. It paints Cameron as rather wise.
Well, there's some new and interesting news arriving about BES / ESFG, although I would caution that this is largely rumour at this point.
Apparently, BES's Angolan subsidiary BESA (Bank Espirto Santo Angola) is sitting on many billions of non-performing loans, and the Angolan government is considering nationalising it. Of course Angola is an ex-Portuguese colony so there are good reasons for the commercial links. However, the size of the non-performing loans is - relative to disclosed ESFG exposure of c. €1.2bn - enormous. Apparently, the Angolan central bank has had to step in to guarantee c. €4bn of loans. (5% of Angola GDP).
It is not clear if any of these loans have any thing to do with the Espirito Santo family and ESFG, or whether BES has just been a very poor lender in one of Africa's faster growing economies.
Right now, it is not clear how much of the banks' equity sits in Angola. Can BES walk away from BESA? What happens if BESA is nationalised? How serious is the Angolan government about guaranteeing bad loans?
I have access to our company's sales worldwide. We only sell to manufacturing industry. There has been good growth in the first half of the year. However, it went "over the cliff" in July.
OK only 14 days so far. We cannot draw conclusions yet. But something is going on.
I finally think GBPUSD has topped out just under 1.72 - I never thought it would make it that far, but it has. I sense that the capital that has been trying to get off the grid out of the rickety European banking system, and that has been finding a home in prime London property has been slowing up over the past few months, which has been a big factor behind the rise of Sterling over the past year or so.
Increasing geopolitical risk in Europe over the coming months is going to push capital into the US I think. I'd like a correction on the US markets which I think would be healthy after the relentless rise from October 2011 pretty much. Its clear that the US is on a different cycle to Europe as a whole, US markets have still been making upward progress whilst most European markets apart from the German DAX have largely been trading sideways. Peripheral Europe has been showing weakness however over the past few months and Emporito Santo etc only heightens those concerns. I see the capital that remains in Europe flowing to Germany over the next 4 months. Once we get this correction out of the way, there is still enough US corporates that are yielding more than cash, so its still a no-brainer to go there for the moment, and critically whilst expectations of a rising market are still intact, it'll support capital flows there. It seems crazy, but I could see the Dow getting to 25/26k after the correction over the next 4 months, before the great deflation hits. There's still enough nay sayers and retail still hasn't really bought into this market in a big way.
He said in a mocking tone: “David Axelrod, you might have heard of this bloke, he’s the guy from America who came over, pro-bono virtually, to help us out in terms of Labour’s campaign.
“He says these cost of living policies in and of themselves are very good, tactically, but do they add together? No.
“Now you could have paid me to say that, but it is right. You need that external critique.”
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1436496.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_07_19
Ed is Crap!
Night all.
Cameron upping the stakes with Putin in a big way. What's the future of Londongrad and all that Russian money parked here?
I think the Mirror are getting a lot of their info from ExaroNews.
ExaroNews are claiming 2 MPs now have audio recording in relation to a specific event and are deciding what to do with it. And that Granada are going to run a special relating to two high profile former politicians from the North West on Monday.
Generally, I am more optimistic about prospects that you are. There has been a monumental amount of deleveraging in (most) of the Eurozone economies (France and Portugal being the most notable exceptions). Net corporate saving was 6% of GDP in Spain last year, and something similar in Ireland. Personal debt remains incredibly modest (sub 60% of GDP) in the big three Eurozone economies of Germany, France and Italy, against 150%+ in the UK and the US. In addition, Eurozone banks are (with a fair few exceptions) much better capitalised than they were.
I'd also expect the next headache to appear far from where people expect it. The auditors have been all over CaixaBank's books, and liquidation of property portfolios in Spain in not triggering incremental writedowns, which tells us that - by and large - loans have been correctly marked down.
My money would be on a Chinese slowdown causing weaker capital goods orders in Germany and Sweden. It might then turn out that German Landesbanks were more aggressive in lending to smaller German companies than was expected, and that - because of supposed support from local governments - they have been exempt from proper scrutiny. When politics meets banking, writedowns almost always occur.
It's the usual potent mixture of corruption and oil money.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2545603/Lembit-Opik-called-Cinderella-tried-kiss-Schoolgirl-activists-claims-heap-embarrassment-Lib-Dems.html
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/real-life-stories/rise-revenge-porn---jilted-3885666
O_o
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/b9a0fa5ouk/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-170714.pdf I was a respondent in that poll - pretty sure Gove's name wasn't attached to the policies, though there was a specific question about whether he was too combative. I don't think most of the public has a strong view on what he was doing - I'd be amazed if more than 25% could tell you the difference between a free school, an academy, and an LEA school. Insofar as they have a view, they just vaguely think he seemed to get into a lot of fights over details like particular schoolbooks and WW1 history.
More interesting for me is the Portugal Telecom link. It seems like there was something odd going on: using bank deposits to buy CP in the firm thinking it was "risk free" (Reuters ascribes this motive to PT) suggests either the PT treasury team consists of f***ing muppets...or that there was some kind of unwritten guarantee from the family...i.e. that they were manipulating their CP in the market
www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/17/portugal-bes-idUSL6N0PS4H820140717
Ed is crap really IS PM!
Oh, shit, he's crap.
Wish someone had warned us.
Still, at least the lazy will get their benefits and the borders will be sexily leaky
2.5 looks too short to me to chase the runs, lay of Lanka @ 2.5 to £5 profit.
SA don't need 10 wickets to manage this, a blitz from Steyn at any point should slow the rate enough to draw...