Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes online and Opinium polls are out
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes online and Opinium polls are out
Most people, 56 per cent, said women were promoted for “presentational reasons” and only 24 per cent said women were promoted “on merit”.Overall, only 20 per cent said the reshuffle improved my view of the Conservative Party, while 54 per cent said it had not.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Why would the EU be granting money to the BBC?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/culturehousedaily/2014/02/the-millions-in-eu-funding-the-bbc-tried-to-hide/
Should we read anything into this? NOTA??
Bumpkinland - where all the action is.
A week that things stay the same (although there has been a drift to lab since the euro's) is a week that Labour wins.
It's no longer mid term guys. This with Labour dominating the marginals is Labour in.
Not quite sure if Hamilton's starting from the pit lane (didn't realise he'd changed brake disc firms from Friday to Saturday).
More computer issues. Hoping it's relatively minor. *sighs*
Ed is crap is pm 40 weeks to go
EICIPM
Ed Miliband Will Never Become Prime Minister
JacW
Surprised at how low that is to be honest
If you really wanted to test if the different wordings had any effect you’d need to test on a much bigger scale to differentiate any effect from normal sample error, especially since any difference is likely to be small. Personally I doubt it does make any difference, but would always ask “tomorrow” on principle, just to emphasize that a poll really is a snapshot of opinion NOW, not a prediction of opinion next year.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8901
In the 83-87 Parliament it was the autumn of 1986 that saw the Tories get a consistent crossover (specifically from October 1986)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1983-1987
I think the final three months of 2014 are going to be critical for Conservative fortunes. If we end 2014 with the current Labour 3-4% lead holding steady I may have reconsider the chances of Con getting most seats and votes, but for now, there's still enough time for the Con's to make enough progress to hold the most seats next year.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Marginals-report-May-2014.pdf
You can join if you want, me, NickP and TSE are on their panel
Looks to me like Labour "35%" strategy scrapes them home / maybe a hung parliament.
I can't see how a) Labour will go much lower or b) that the Tories can gain 10% in 10 months.
What I really meant to ask is whether they have a rolling sample, or whatever the technical term might be, whereby this is changed by a certain percentage from day to day, so that the entire sample is only changed in its entirety every few polls.
Remember the trend is your friend and not one week. Also Fisher completely underestimated the number of seats Labour would win in the local elections.
So Labour are a lot lot stronger.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm
Need to see ICM August and September polls to be sure of course.
Talking of ICM I saw UKIP's Paul Nuttall being interviewed this week.
When challenged about UKIP declining in the polls he said something like;
"I don't take any notice of ICM polls".
I was wishing OGH was there to point out that ICM have the best general election record of any pollster going back to 1997, but alas the point was never raised.
Those who ignore this collective brain power do so at their peril!
Like a surprising number of statements from out of the Kremlin, that sounds on the face of it to be pretty reasonable. Also, like an unsurprising number of those statements, it's one the Russians do not follow in practice any more than anyone else, with no hint of self awareness.
More seriously, I think Cameron would walk away in a heart beat to private sector. Osborne, he is so political, I think he will hang in, believing his time will come.
Only whether that will entail most seats or a majority is in question...
But Miliband's rating has also improved by 6 points to -20.
.......Opinium also asked voters for their views on Gove's performance in more than four years as education secretary. While more voters thought he had done badly (39%) than well (26%), there were mixed opinions on his reforms of the school system and curriculum.
More people supported the expansion of the academy programme (34%) than opposed it (28%), while 30% had no view.
Similarly opinion was fairly evenly divided on the introduction of "free schools", with 31% backing the policy, 34% opposing it, and 28% having no opinion.
There was strong support, however, for his drive to make the english and history curriculums more focused on Britain with 57% backing the idea and only 16% opposing it.
Some 42% of voters thought Gove had been too unnecessarily combative and aggressive in his dealing with teachers and others, while 29% believed that he had had to be forceful to push through his reforms.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/19/david-cameron-cabinet-reshuffle-labour-poll-lead-slip
Cameron going for Putin including sanctions
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound
That was until UKIP, Greens and SNP came in to spoil the fun.
I seemed to remember they did that a couple of years ago with Osborne. Asked people do they support x or y idea, and it got decent response, if asked is Osborne any good / are his policies right, big thumbs down.
The myth of what Osborne was trying to do and what he was actually doing were two separately things. I bet if you still asked something like "Osborne massive cuts", the public would respond about the non-existent massive axe that has been taken to public spending.
I think the rise of UKIP and debacle of LD must question the "spiral of silence" assumption. Many of those who would not admit to voting Tory now happily admit being UKIP supporters.
And assuming GE2010 LD voters who are now DK/WNV as "silent" LD voters is frankly incoherent.
"This is an atrocity made in Russia"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bs70MIoCYAAwTye.jpg
With apologies to the late great Kenny Everett:
"Let's bomb Russia! Let's kick Ed Miliband's speech therapist away!"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsokGIeQFFI
I'm on both Garcia and Fowler to win outright .... close but no cigar it would seem!
@ShippersUnbound
Find out what Jon Cruddas really thinks about David Axelrod in the Sunday Times
I am sure he thinks he is awesome :-)
I suspect that we'll see Lib Dem/UKIP crossover before the next election, but I wouldn't want to hazard when. Is that thought to be likely by the markets?
Models should be refined, and odds change as situations develop and the ultimate result comes nearer.
A Labour minority might see Cameron stay in position, depending on whether a second election seemed imminent.
Is it likely to stick? (My guess is yes.)
Not quite consistent with other polling.
I've heard some shocking things from all parties about UKIP's lack of organisational and campaigning skill.
That's going to have an effect in 2015.
Edited extra bit: anyway, off for the night.
Six in ten voters believe the reshuffle - which demoted Michael Gove and promoted several female ministers - was “a step in the right direction” for the Conservatives, ORB International survey shows
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10978470/Poll-David-Camerons-reshuffle-boosts-Tories.html
I'm actually gratified Brown didn't do that, that him being elected as MP for his constituency should not be all about him being PM and quitting if that did not pan out, although I hear he is not especially active in any case. But Cameron, far younger than Brown? I think he'd quit and get a job elsewhere.
One in three voters - 33 per cent - name Mr Cameron as the best Prime Minister for Britain, regardless of their own voting intentions, confirming him as the most highly rated of all the party leaders.
He is far more popular with his own side than Mr Miliband is among Labour supporters. Some 90 per cent of Tory voters back Mr Cameron as Prime Minister, while only 59 per cent of Labour voters believe Mr Miliband is the best leader for Britain.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10978470/Poll-David-Camerons-reshuffle-boosts-Tories.html
Looks as if I have missed a Cabinet reshuffle, assorted arrests linked to allegations of sexual malpractice enjoyed by tin foil hat wearers (or Miles Malpractice meets Captain Grimes).
My first words should have been has Vince been sacked?
From what I've seen in Scotland is that most people have already decided how they are going to vote on Sept 18th, but, to maintain civility and social cohesion, they are not prepared to discuss their decision. People are not prepared to argue with friends and relatives that could alter relationships. They will make their mark on the ballot paper.
That Ed M has managed to seemingly avoid any negative impact from his connection to the heart of Labour for a decade shows what is possible, although he at least had a smaller profile prior to becoming leader.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/gordon-brown/9088284/Gordon-Brown-rakes-in-more-than-1-million-on-lecture-circuit.html
Disclaimer: WIN/Gallup International Association or its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C which is no longer a member of Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion polling other than its own. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll).
http://www.wingia.com/en/countries/United Kingdom/
The implied question was whether Osborne would want the job, not whether it would be available to him.
The party has seemed less troublesome for the last year though, I'll give them that. Either resigned to defeat so no point in trying to oust him, or genuinely more disciplined than I had thought possible from them, along with a little bit of position strengthening thanks to the economy I'd guess.
http://www.opinion.co.uk/
I wouldn't normally quote the Star, and not a pinch of salt, more like a lorry load, but if true...WTF....is there anybody who didn't have a dossier on paedo rings?