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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lib Dems drop 4 to just 7% in today’s Ashcroft phone po

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  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    I decline to be startled by the Ashcroft weekly or Populus biweekly polls, whatever they say.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    DavidL said:

    Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

    Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
    Sub-sample size = 194
    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    Lab 33% (-9)
    SNP 25% (+5)
    Con 24% (+7)
    UKIP 7% (+6)
    LD 7% (-12)
    Grn 2% (+1)
    BNP 1% (+1)

    Baxtered:

    SLab 38 seats (-3)
    SNP 10 seats (+4)
    SCon 9 seats (+8)
    SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

    SCon gains from SLD:
    Argyll and Bute
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    SCon gains from SLab:
    Aberdeen South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Edinburgh South

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

    I think the Scottish tories would be happy with 3 of them, probably West Aberdeenshire, Berwickshire and Dumfries, but there is increasing evidence that some of the tartan tories who have been voting SNP for a long time now in the glens and the countryside are having second thoughts.

    The Tory gains are going to result from the drop in the Labour and Lib Dem votes, not from any decline in the SNP vote. The shifts are entirely within the existing Unionist bloc, not between blocs:

    SLD to SCon swing: 9.5 points
    SLab to SCon swing: 8 points
    SNP to SCon swing: 0.5 points

    I repeat: the Lib-Labs are getting totally thumped. Cameron pulled a total blinder when he appointed Alistair Darling as his lieutenant in North Britain. It sapped the will to fight from half of the Scottish Labour Party.

    What a load of utter drivel . What are the comparable swings based on the sub samples from the previous two Populus polls
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Reshuffle is beginning

    Veteran Conservative MP Ken Clarke is to step down as a minister as David Cameron begins his Cabinet reshuffle.

    Mr Clarke is quitting his role as a minister without portfolio, BBC Political Editor Nick Robinson says.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28291281#TWEET1183678
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 24s

    RT @itvwales David Jones confirms to @ITVWales he is no longer Welsh Secretary as part of Cabinet reshuffle http://itv.co/1nonIOu
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    Will the ICM continue to show that George Osborne is the most popular UK wide politician, and that Ed Miliband is worse than Nick Clegg?

    One of my theories about Osborne is that he is much more comfortable in his own skin than Cameron. He has no problems at all being posh or rich. No trips on Easyjet flights for him or his wife. No hesitation about going on expensive skiing trips.

    Ultimately, he looks more genuine as a result. Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't. Ed has similar problems when he tries to pretend he has anything in common with those he purports to represent.

    Of course rolling a double 6 on the economy has not done him any harm either.

    Osborne has turned positively loquacious on Twitter. It makes a big difference from a couple of years ago when the was hunkered down in No 11 and had the 'submarine' nickname.

    Interestingly, ever since she watched a documentary about Mandelson that was released just after GE2010, my wife has always said Osborne has a bit of a spark about him. This was based on a little dig he had at Mandelson when he appeared alongside him in a scene at the leaders debate.
    I think he and Mandelson have always had quite a high regard for each other and their abilities. This is the latest example: http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/diary/9219411/peter-mandelsons-diary-the-accomplishments-of-george-osborne-and-vladimir-putin/

    Still plenty of stick but plenty of regard too.

    I think it is a pity that the country has not found a use for Mandelson's talents over the last 4 years. We don't have enough people of his competence involved in our politics.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ken Clarke out.

    Yay.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Neil said:


    The Tory gains are going to result from the drop in the Labour and Lib Dem votes

    I dont suppose you're prepared to bet on the Tories gaining 8 MPs in Scotland?
    Of course not. That just ain't gonna happen. I said "the Tory gains", not "the eight Tory gains".

    Not least because the Scottish Tories have a proven record at being abominable at GOTV. They are national champions in underachievement on polling day, when it actually counts.

    But the BT campaign is pure air-war gold for Davidson's bunch.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 15s

    Blimey RT @ConHistGrp Tomorrow will be the 1st day of Conservative (or Con-led) Govt. since 1972 which doesn't include Ken Clarke #reshuffle

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 36s
    Lurking lobby hacks are being evicted from the back of the Speaker's chair... where the PM is firing people in his Commons office.

  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926

    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 24s

    RT @itvwales David Jones confirms to @ITVWales he is no longer Welsh Secretary as part of Cabinet reshuffle http://itv.co/1nonIOu

    BBC Wales had that story up 50 minutes ago - possibily to be replaced by Steven Crabb
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    The LD PPC for Frome and Somerton where the stting MP is retiring stand down for personal reasons
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    Of course not. That just ain't gonna happen. I said "the Tory gains", not "the eight Tory gains".

    How many Tory gains are you predicting then?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    DavidL said:

    Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

    Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
    Sub-sample size = 194
    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    Lab 33% (-9)
    SNP 25% (+5)
    Con 24% (+7)
    UKIP 7% (+6)
    LD 7% (-12)
    Grn 2% (+1)
    BNP 1% (+1)

    Baxtered:

    SLab 38 seats (-3)
    SNP 10 seats (+4)
    SCon 9 seats (+8)
    SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

    SCon gains from SLD:
    Argyll and Bute
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    SCon gains from SLab:
    Aberdeen South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Edinburgh South

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

    I think the Scottish tories would be happy with 3 of them, probably West Aberdeenshire, Berwickshire and Dumfries, but there is increasing evidence that some of the tartan tories who have been voting SNP for a long time now in the glens and the countryside are having second thoughts.

    The Tory gains are going to result from the drop in the Labour and Lib Dem votes, not from any decline in the SNP vote. The shifts are entirely within the existing Unionist bloc, not between blocs:

    SLD to SCon swing: 9.5 points
    SLab to SCon swing: 8 points
    SNP to SCon swing: 0.5 points

    I repeat: the Lib-Labs are getting totally thumped. Cameron pulled a total blinder when he appointed Alistair Darling as his lieutenant in North Britain. It sapped the will to fight from half of the Scottish Labour Party.

    What a load of utter drivel . What are the comparable swings based on the sub samples from the previous two Populus polls
    For someone who feigns to profess that sub-samples are worthless you have an uncanny fascination with them. :)
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Neil said:


    Of course not. That just ain't gonna happen. I said "the Tory gains", not "the eight Tory gains".

    How many Tory gains are you predicting then?
    At least two and fewer than eight.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    BBC Politics ‏@BBCPolitics 28s
    Welsh Secretary David Jones is out of the cabinet after a reshuffle by Prime Minister David Cameron. http://bbc.in/1zBTt0m

    Nick Robinson ‏@bbcnickrobinson 55s
    BREAKING Reshuffle has begun. Ken Clarke is leaving govt. Told friends he spent 3 days at test match last week in anticipation
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    marke09 said:

    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 24s

    RT @itvwales David Jones confirms to @ITVWales he is no longer Welsh Secretary as part of Cabinet reshuffle http://itv.co/1nonIOu

    BBC Wales had that story up 50 minutes ago - possibily to be replaced by Steven Crabb
    I like Stephen Crabb
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 36s
    Lurking lobby hacks are being evicted from the back of the Speaker's chair... where the PM is firing people in his Commons office.

    I wonder why Cameron has dispensed with the Downing St 'walk of shame' - tis the best bit..!
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Feeling sad I never took the really long odds on David Jones being the next out of cabinet which were around immediately after Miller left. Would have made a nice return. Alas.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited July 2014
    DavidL said:

    "Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't."

    I agree evertime Cameron tries to look like a leader he comes across as a fake.

    Not a coincidence that your icon is a cat is it?

    Not really thought about it that way, Mr. L. Cats can, with care, be led, they cannot be driven and they know the difference - a bit like most Englishmen.

    The picture, by the way is of The Brute who last night, because of electrical failure/carelessness on my part, had his bedtime milk served too cold for his liking. By the cringe, did he have his revenge. From 3am we had the cat serenade meow session interspersed with games of elephants on the landing, squeaky toy smack down and zooms across the bed. It was as if he had been reading the CatfoodBreath twitter feed and using it as a guide. Finally, as it got towards getting up time, The Brute decided to play, "Guess how loudly I can purr". Needless to say he has barely moved from his chair since breakfast and I have made fixing the bottle warmer my priority.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    The LD PPC for Frome and Somerton where the stting MP is retiring stand down for personal reasons

    C'mon Mark. Kiss n tell.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    DavidL said:

    "Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't."

    I agree evertime Cameron tries to look like a leader he comes across as a fake.

    Not a coincidence that your icon is a cat is it?

    Not really thought about it that way, Mr. L. Cats can, with care be led, they cannot be driven and they know the difference - a bit like most Englishmen.
    Well said Mr Llama. I suspect that the British Establishment is about to learn the bounds when it comes to attempting to drive Englishmen.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

    Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
    Sub-sample size = 194
    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    Lab 33% (-9)
    SNP 25% (+5)
    Con 24% (+7)
    UKIP 7% (+6)
    LD 7% (-12)
    Grn 2% (+1)
    BNP 1% (+1)

    Baxtered:

    SLab 38 seats (-3)
    SNP 10 seats (+4)
    SCon 9 seats (+8)
    SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

    SCon gains from SLD:
    Argyll and Bute
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    SCon gains from SLab:
    Aberdeen South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Edinburgh South

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

    Oh gawd , the Scottish sub sample dolt is back with us .
    Strange he was not here posting Friday's Populus sub sample or last Monday's . Could it be that those polls had the Lib Dems at 11% in the Scottish sub samples and he did not like the figures .
    No. It could be that this particular Scot has a real life. You really ought to try to get one yourself.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    DavidL said:

    "Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't."

    I agree evertime Cameron tries to look like a leader he comes across as a fake.

    Not a coincidence that your icon is a cat is it?

    Not really thought about it that way, Mr. L. Cats can, with care, be led, they cannot be driven and they know the difference - a bit like most Englishmen.

    The picture, by the way is of The Brute who last night, because of electrical failure/carelessness on my part, had his bedtime milk served too cold for his liking. By the cringe, did he have his revenge. From 3am we had the cat serenade meow session interspersed with games of elephants on the landing, squeaky toy smack down and zooms across the bed. It was as if he had been reading the CatfoodBreath twitter feed and using it as a guide. Finally, as it got towards getting up time, The Brute decided to play, "Guess how loudly I can purr". Needless to say he has barely moved from his chair since breakfast and I have made fixing the bottle warmer my priority.
    My daughter won't feed her cats milk. She says it is not good for them. They do, however, have a range of tricks, some of which were amusing even on the second occasion.

    It sounds as if yours has you well trained though.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    possibily to be replaced by Steven Crabb

    Does it really matter who is Welsh secretary? Is one really needed?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    taffys said:

    Fascinating Post Mr. Dickson, though its a mystery to me why BT should help tories/UKIP and yet hit Lib/LAB (given they are all on the same side!)

    Long may it remain a mystery. I long ago gave up trying to explain really, really obvious things around here.

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Any *decent* reshuffle rumours out yet?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Carola said:

    Any *decent* reshuffle rumours out yet?

    Chris Grayling or Liam Fox as Chief Whip
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    "Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't."

    I agree evertime Cameron tries to look like a leader he comes across as a fake.

    Not a coincidence that your icon is a cat is it?

    Not really thought about it that way, Mr. L. Cats can, with care, be led, they cannot be driven and they know the difference - a bit like most Englishmen.

    The picture, by the way is of The Brute who last night, because of electrical failure/carelessness on my part, had his bedtime milk served too cold for his liking. By the cringe, did he have his revenge. From 3am we had the cat serenade meow session interspersed with games of elephants on the landing, squeaky toy smack down and zooms across the bed. It was as if he had been reading the CatfoodBreath twitter feed and using it as a guide. Finally, as it got towards getting up time, The Brute decided to play, "Guess how loudly I can purr". Needless to say he has barely moved from his chair since breakfast and I have made fixing the bottle warmer my priority.
    My daughter won't feed her cats milk. She says it is not good for them. They do, however, have a range of tricks, some of which were amusing even on the second occasion.

    It sounds as if yours has you well trained though.

    My cat shrieks at me when it sees me making my morning tea. Even though it has been fed, it insists on milk, and miaows incessantly and loiudly the minute it sees my hand on the milk bottle.



  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited July 2014

    Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

    Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
    Sub-sample size = 194
    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    Lab 33% (-9)
    SNP 25% (+5)
    Con 24% (+7)
    UKIP 7% (+6)
    LD 7% (-12)
    Grn 2% (+1)
    BNP 1% (+1)

    Baxtered:

    SLab 38 seats (-3)
    SNP 10 seats (+4)
    SCon 9 seats (+8)
    SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

    SCon gains from SLD:
    Argyll and Bute
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    SCon gains from SLab:
    Aberdeen South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Edinburgh South

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

    Oh gawd , the Scottish sub sample dolt is back with us .
    Strange he was not here posting Friday's Populus sub sample or last Monday's . Could it be that those polls had the Lib Dems at 11% in the Scottish sub samples and he did not like the figures .
    No. It could be that this particular Scot has a real life. You really ought to try to get one yourself.
    If you expect us to believe that you were following your real life when those polls were published but suddenly have time today when there is one that suits your meme you are fooling only yourself .
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Reshuffles usually consist of people one had never heard of being sacked or resigning and being replaced by another set of people one is never going to hear from again.

    Will this one be any different?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

    Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
    Sub-sample size = 194
    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    Lab 33% (-9)
    SNP 25% (+5)
    Con 24% (+7)
    UKIP 7% (+6)
    LD 7% (-12)
    Grn 2% (+1)
    BNP 1% (+1)

    Baxtered:

    SLab 38 seats (-3)
    SNP 10 seats (+4)
    SCon 9 seats (+8)
    SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

    SCon gains from SLD:
    Argyll and Bute
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    SCon gains from SLab:
    Aberdeen South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Edinburgh South

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

    Oh gawd , the Scottish sub sample dolt is back with us .
    Strange he was not here posting Friday's Populus sub sample or last Monday's . Could it be that those polls had the Lib Dems at 11% in the Scottish sub samples and he did not like the figures .
    No. It could be that this particular Scot has a real life. You really ought to try to get one yourself.
    If you expect us to believe that you were following your real life when those polls were published but suddenly have time today when there is one that suits your meme you are foolling only yourself .
    More fooll you.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Cyclefree said:

    Reshuffles usually consist of people one had never heard of being sacked or resigning and being replaced by another set of people one is never going to hear from again.

    Will this one be any different?

    No.

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    edited July 2014

    Carola said:

    Any *decent* reshuffle rumours out yet?

    Chris Grayling or Liam Fox as Chief Whip
    Thanks - just seen Grayling refuted on twitter? Mind you I'm still trying to catch up.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

    Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
    Sub-sample size = 194
    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    Lab 33% (-9)
    SNP 25% (+5)
    Con 24% (+7)
    UKIP 7% (+6)
    LD 7% (-12)
    Grn 2% (+1)
    BNP 1% (+1)

    Baxtered:

    SLab 38 seats (-3)
    SNP 10 seats (+4)
    SCon 9 seats (+8)
    SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

    SCon gains from SLD:
    Argyll and Bute
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    SCon gains from SLab:
    Aberdeen South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Edinburgh South

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

    What are you smoking these days ? Even Fitalass and Scott would not predict SCON to win 8 seats !
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pickles shunted sideways.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited July 2014
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    "Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't."

    I agree evertime Cameron tries to look like a leader he comes across as a fake.

    Not a coincidence that your icon is a cat is it?

    Not really thought about it that way, Mr. L. Cats can, with care, be led, they cannot be driven and they know the difference - a bit like most Englishmen.

    The picture, by the way is of The Brute who last night, because of electrical failure/carelessness on my part, had his bedtime milk served too cold for his liking. By the cringe, did he have his revenge. From 3am we had the cat serenade meow session interspersed with games of elephants on the landing, squeaky toy smack down and zooms across the bed. It was as if he had been reading the CatfoodBreath twitter feed and using it as a guide. Finally, as it got towards getting up time, The Brute decided to play, "Guess how loudly I can purr". Needless to say he has barely moved from his chair since breakfast and I have made fixing the bottle warmer my priority.
    My daughter won't feed her cats milk. She says it is not good for them. They do, however, have a range of tricks, some of which were amusing even on the second occasion.

    It sounds as if yours has you well trained though.

    That is very unfair, Mr L.. The Bute doesn't have me trained but as, he is going to live with us whether I like it or not, I find it easier and less expensive to reach a mutually acceptable modus vivendi.

    P.S. Re milk being bad for cats. Herself read that a while back and tried to impose the rule. It was while we were recovering from that fiasco that we got into the whole "temperature of the milk at bed time" nonsense. Not my fault, I was away when she first started warming The Brute's milk.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    "Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't."

    I agree evertime Cameron tries to look like a leader he comes across as a fake.

    Not a coincidence that your icon is a cat is it?

    Not really thought about it that way, Mr. L. Cats can, with care, be led, they cannot be driven and they know the difference - a bit like most Englishmen.

    The picture, by the way is of The Brute who last night, because of electrical failure/carelessness on my part, had his bedtime milk served too cold for his liking. By the cringe, did he have his revenge. From 3am we had the cat serenade meow session interspersed with games of elephants on the landing, squeaky toy smack down and zooms across the bed. It was as if he had been reading the CatfoodBreath twitter feed and using it as a guide. Finally, as it got towards getting up time, The Brute decided to play, "Guess how loudly I can purr". Needless to say he has barely moved from his chair since breakfast and I have made fixing the bottle warmer my priority.
    My daughter won't feed her cats milk. She says it is not good for them. They do, however, have a range of tricks, some of which were amusing even on the second occasion.

    It sounds as if yours has you well trained though.

    That is very unfair, Mr L.. The Bute doesn't have me trained but as, he is going to live with us whether I like it or not, I find it easier and less expensive to reach a mutually acceptable modus vivendi.

    P.S. Re milk being bad for cats. Herself read that a while back and tried to impose the rule. It was while we were recovering from that fiasco that we got into the whole "temperature of the milk at bed time" nonsense. Not my fault, I was away when she first started warming The Brute's milk.
    Apparently pretty much all cats are lactose intolerant. Presumably no one has ever told them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    The Romans considered cats to be the most free of creatures. They depicted a certain goddess (whose name sadly escapes me) as one.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Carola said:

    Carola said:

    Any *decent* reshuffle rumours out yet?

    Chris Grayling or Liam Fox as Chief Whip
    Thanks - just seen Grayling refuted on twitter? Mind you I'm still trying to catch up.
    Same here, there's all sorts of contradictory rumours.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    The Romans considered cats to be the most free of creatures. They depicted a certain goddess (whose name sadly escapes me) as one.


    My absolute favourite Kipling story was about the Cat. "I am the cat who walks by himself and all places are alike to me."

    I inflicted this on all of my children. It is character building but, as I say, my daughter has not heeded the warning.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    surbiton said:

    Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

    Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
    Sub-sample size = 194
    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    Lab 33% (-9)
    SNP 25% (+5)
    Con 24% (+7)
    UKIP 7% (+6)
    LD 7% (-12)
    Grn 2% (+1)
    BNP 1% (+1)

    Baxtered:

    SLab 38 seats (-3)
    SNP 10 seats (+4)
    SCon 9 seats (+8)
    SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

    SCon gains from SLD:
    Argyll and Bute
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    SCon gains from SLab:
    Aberdeen South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Edinburgh South

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

    What are you smoking these days ? Even Fitalass and Scott would not predict SCON to win 8 seats !
    Easterross would , mind you he did that for the 2010 GE also .
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Who will be the first Labour luvvie to bemoan Ken Clarke's departure.

    And will they be able to find a Conservative who will similarly bemoan ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited July 2014
    Owen Paterson sacked by the looks of it.

    There goes my 40/1 tip as next Foreign Secretary.

    Those bloody badgers wot did it.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    TGOHF said:

    Who will be the first Labour luvvie to bemoan Ken Clarke's departure.

    And will they be able to find a Conservative who will similarly bemoan ?

    Ben Bradshaw has already done that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    TGOHF said:

    Who will be the first Labour luvvie to bemoan Ken Clarke's departure.

    And will they be able to find a Conservative who will similarly bemoan ?

    Ben Bradshaw

    Ben Bradshaw @BenPBradshaw · 25m

    Sorry to see Ken Clarke leave Government. Was a rare voice of sanity on Europe in today's Tory Party.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    edited July 2014
    The plan is apparently for the Prime Minister to remove all those who are going this evening (presumably wary of a repeat of last time, when Baroness Warsi effectively refused to be sacked), and then doing appointments tomorrow, so there is no word as yet who might replace them.
    Can someone fill me in as to what happened with Warsi last time?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Tony ND at the Sun says IDS safe.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    RobD said:

    The plan is apparently for the Prime Minister to remove all those who are going this evening (presumably wary of a repeat of last time, when Baroness Warsi effectively refused to be sacked), and then doing appointments tomorrow, so there is no word as yet who might replace them.
    Can someone fill me in as to what happened with Warsi last time?

    She was demoted from Party Chairman (inside Cabinet) to Minister of State at FCO (with 'attending' Cabinet).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    JohnO said:

    RobD said:

    The plan is apparently for the Prime Minister to remove all those who are going this evening (presumably wary of a repeat of last time, when Baroness Warsi effectively refused to be sacked), and then doing appointments tomorrow, so there is no word as yet who might replace them.
    Can someone fill me in as to what happened with Warsi last time?
    She was demoted from Party Chairman (inside Cabinet) to Minister of State at FCO (with 'attending' Cabinet).

    But she was supposed to have been given the boot entirely?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    RobD said:

    The plan is apparently for the Prime Minister to remove all those who are going this evening (presumably wary of a repeat of last time, when Baroness Warsi effectively refused to be sacked), and then doing appointments tomorrow, so there is no word as yet who might replace them.
    Can someone fill me in as to what happened with Warsi last time?

    He tried to fire her out of the cabinet and as Tory Chairman, but she refused, so eventually he made her a Foreign Office Minister and made her Chair of a few cabinet committees
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    surbiton said:

    Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

    Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
    Sub-sample size = 194
    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    Lab 33% (-9)
    SNP 25% (+5)
    Con 24% (+7)
    UKIP 7% (+6)
    LD 7% (-12)
    Grn 2% (+1)
    BNP 1% (+1)

    Baxtered:

    SLab 38 seats (-3)
    SNP 10 seats (+4)
    SCon 9 seats (+8)
    SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

    SCon gains from SLD:
    Argyll and Bute
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    SCon gains from SLab:
    Aberdeen South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Edinburgh South

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

    What are you smoking these days ? Even Fitalass and Scott would not predict SCON to win 8 seats !
    You misunderstand. It is Martin Baxter's website Electoral Calculus that predicts eight SCon gains. Not me.

    Ask Mr Baxter what he is smoking.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    surbiton said:

    Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

    Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
    Sub-sample size = 194
    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    Lab 33% (-9)
    SNP 25% (+5)
    Con 24% (+7)
    UKIP 7% (+6)
    LD 7% (-12)
    Grn 2% (+1)
    BNP 1% (+1)

    Baxtered:

    SLab 38 seats (-3)
    SNP 10 seats (+4)
    SCon 9 seats (+8)
    SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

    SCon gains from SLD:
    Argyll and Bute
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    SCon gains from SLab:
    Aberdeen South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Edinburgh South

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

    What are you smoking these days ? Even Fitalass and Scott would not predict SCON to win 8 seats !
    You misunderstand. It is Martin Baxter's website Electoral Calculus that predicts eight SCon gains. Not me.

    Ask Mr Baxter what he is smoking.
    Martin Baxter in the past has made a point of saying you should not use unweighted sub-samples into his seat predictors.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    surbiton said:

    Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

    Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
    Sub-sample size = 194
    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    Lab 33% (-9)
    SNP 25% (+5)
    Con 24% (+7)
    UKIP 7% (+6)
    LD 7% (-12)
    Grn 2% (+1)
    BNP 1% (+1)

    Baxtered:

    SLab 38 seats (-3)
    SNP 10 seats (+4)
    SCon 9 seats (+8)
    SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

    SCon gains from SLD:
    Argyll and Bute
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    SCon gains from SLab:
    Aberdeen South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Edinburgh South

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

    What are you smoking these days ? Even Fitalass and Scott would not predict SCON to win 8 seats !
    You misunderstand. It is Martin Baxter's website Electoral Calculus that predicts eight SCon gains. Not me.

    Ask Mr Baxter what he is smoking.
    Martin Baxter in the past has made a point of saying you should not use unweighted sub-samples into his seat predictors.
    Very, very odd, because that is exactly what Mr Baxter does himself:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls_scot.html
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Isn't ICM usually out by now? Do get a move on!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, that was a limp-wristed approach. He should've just thrown her overboard.

    Identity politics and similar nonsense is partly to blame, but Cameron deserves blame as well.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Ashcroft poll today LAB 347 CON 259 LD 18 Other 26 (UKPR)

    Ed is crap is PM
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited July 2014

    surbiton said:

    Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

    Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
    Sub-sample size = 194
    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    Lab 33% (-9)
    SNP 25% (+5)
    Con 24% (+7)
    UKIP 7% (+6)
    LD 7% (-12)
    Grn 2% (+1)
    BNP 1% (+1)

    Baxtered:

    SLab 38 seats (-3)
    SNP 10 seats (+4)
    SCon 9 seats (+8)
    SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

    SCon gains from SLD:
    Argyll and Bute
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    SCon gains from SLab:
    Aberdeen South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Edinburgh South

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

    What are you smoking these days ? Even Fitalass and Scott would not predict SCON to win 8 seats !
    You misunderstand. It is Martin Baxter's website Electoral Calculus that predicts eight SCon gains. Not me.

    Ask Mr Baxter what he is smoking.
    Martin Baxter in the past has made a point of saying you should not use unweighted sub-samples into his seat predictors.
    Very, very odd, because that is exactly what Mr Baxter does himself:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls_scot.html
    No he's not, he's either using specific polls that are Scotland only, or the ones that have been aggregated so not your 100 plus samples, but the ones approaching 2k.

    Edit: Look, not one of them has a sample size of less than 1k
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    surbiton said:

    Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

    Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
    Sub-sample size = 194
    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    Lab 33% (-9)
    SNP 25% (+5)
    Con 24% (+7)
    UKIP 7% (+6)
    LD 7% (-12)
    Grn 2% (+1)
    BNP 1% (+1)

    Baxtered:

    SLab 38 seats (-3)
    SNP 10 seats (+4)
    SCon 9 seats (+8)
    SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

    SCon gains from SLD:
    Argyll and Bute
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    SCon gains from SLab:
    Aberdeen South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Edinburgh South

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

    What are you smoking these days ? Even Fitalass and Scott would not predict SCON to win 8 seats !
    You misunderstand. It is Martin Baxter's website Electoral Calculus that predicts eight SCon gains. Not me.

    Ask Mr Baxter what he is smoking.
    Martin Baxter in the past has made a point of saying you should not use unweighted sub-samples into his seat predictors.
    Very, very odd, because that is exactly what Mr Baxter does himself:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls_scot.html
    And reading the notes at the bottom of that link we find:

    "The Scottish sample size of each individual poll is small (around 150 voters), which is not usable in isolation."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    JohnO said:

    Isn't ICM usually out by now? Do get a move on!

    We think they may do what they did last month, and move it to Tuesday, so it doesn't clash with the Lord Ashcroft poll
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    surbiton said:

    Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

    Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
    Sub-sample size = 194
    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    Lab 33% (-9)
    SNP 25% (+5)
    Con 24% (+7)
    UKIP 7% (+6)
    LD 7% (-12)
    Grn 2% (+1)
    BNP 1% (+1)

    Baxtered:

    SLab 38 seats (-3)
    SNP 10 seats (+4)
    SCon 9 seats (+8)
    SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

    SCon gains from SLD:
    Argyll and Bute
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    SCon gains from SLab:
    Aberdeen South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Edinburgh South

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

    What are you smoking these days ? Even Fitalass and Scott would not predict SCON to win 8 seats !
    You misunderstand. It is Martin Baxter's website Electoral Calculus that predicts eight SCon gains. Not me.

    Ask Mr Baxter what he is smoking.
    Martin Baxter in the past has made a point of saying you should not use unweighted sub-samples into his seat predictors.
    Very, very odd, because that is exactly what Mr Baxter does himself:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls_scot.html
    Nope , he aggregates them and unlike yourself does not select a particular single sub sample to give a favoured distorted result .
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Todays Populus LAB 341 CON 265 LD 18 Others 26

    Ed is crap is PM. Every poll has EICIPM less than 9.75 months to gp.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Neil said:

    surbiton said:

    Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

    Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
    Sub-sample size = 194
    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    Lab 33% (-9)
    SNP 25% (+5)
    Con 24% (+7)
    UKIP 7% (+6)
    LD 7% (-12)
    Grn 2% (+1)
    BNP 1% (+1)

    Baxtered:

    SLab 38 seats (-3)
    SNP 10 seats (+4)
    SCon 9 seats (+8)
    SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

    SCon gains from SLD:
    Argyll and Bute
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    SCon gains from SLab:
    Aberdeen South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Edinburgh South

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

    What are you smoking these days ? Even Fitalass and Scott would not predict SCON to win 8 seats !
    You misunderstand. It is Martin Baxter's website Electoral Calculus that predicts eight SCon gains. Not me.

    Ask Mr Baxter what he is smoking.
    Martin Baxter in the past has made a point of saying you should not use unweighted sub-samples into his seat predictors.
    Very, very odd, because that is exactly what Mr Baxter does himself:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls_scot.html
    And reading the notes at the bottom of that link we find:

    "The Scottish sample size of each individual poll is small (around 150 voters), which is not usable in isolation."
    Thanks Neil
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Ashcroft poll today LAB 347 CON 259 LD 18 Other 26 (UKPR)

    Ed is crap is PM

    I stuck the 2010 result into Baxter and it said Con lose 2 seats - one each to Lab and LD.



  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Carola

    Reshuffles tend to be an exercise in giving hacks something to write about while the world shrugs its shoulders. I suspect this one will be no different.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Carlotta etc

    According to tonight's Standard Cam chose Butler-Sloss. Front page of the paper this evening.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tomorrows Cineworld secret screening Planet of the Apes odds on favourite Guardians of the Galaxy 2nd favourite Hercules or expendables 3 outside possibilities
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Tomorrows Cineworld secret screening Planet of the Apes odds on favourite Guardians of the Galaxy 2nd favourite Hercules or expendables 3 outside possibilities

    I asked the other day, it's not Guardians of the Galaxy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited July 2014
    Tories ahead with ICM

    Con 34 (+3) lab 33 (+1) LD 12 (+2) UKIP 9 (-7)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/14/ukip-guardian-icm-poll-tories-labour-nigel-farage
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    Tories ahead with ICM

    Con 34 (+3) lab 33 (+1) LD 12 (+2) UKIP 9 (-7)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/14/ukip-guardian-icm-poll-tories-labour-nigel-farage

    Blimey. No doubt it will be termed an outlier...but....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited July 2014

    Tories ahead with ICM

    Con 34 (+3) lab 33 (+1) LD 12 (+2) UKIP 9 (-7)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/14/ukip-guardian-icm-poll-tories-labour-nigel-farage

    Stick a fork in the Kipper - they are done.

    Ed is not PM : Con + LD + Orange NI = Cam PM.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard!

    Are you referring to Con / Lab or LD / UKIP?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    A seven point drop is hefty for UKIP.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    2 out of the last 3 ICMs have had the Tories ahead.

    The trend is your friend.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Tomorrows Cineworld secret screening Planet of the Apes odds on favourite Guardians of the Galaxy 2nd favourite Hercules or expendables 3 outside possibilities

    I asked the other day, it's not Guardians of the Galaxy.
    Screen 17 only 20 seats left.

    145 minitues running time which is 15 mins longer than the normal running time
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Sleazy broken UKIP on the slide.

    I don't think there's been a methodology change with ICM.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Tomorrows Cineworld secret screening Planet of the Apes odds on favourite Guardians of the Galaxy 2nd favourite Hercules or expendables 3 outside possibilities

    I asked the other day, it's not Guardians of the Galaxy.
    Screen 17 only 20 seats left.

    145 minitues running time which is 15 mins longer than the normal running time
    I'm in screen 4, it's on in 3 different screens.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Neil said:

    Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard! Crossover with the Gold Standard!

    Are you referring to Con / Lab or LD / UKIP?
    Both.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Midlands eh ?

    There is also a marked contrast in Tory support between Scotland (21%), Wales (18%) and the north as a whole (21%), a very different picture from the Midlands, where Cameron's party stands on 46%.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    As upset with this poll as I was happy with the 22% last month
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    As upset with this poll as I was happy with the 22% last month

    Pray for a Survation poll...

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    For the purposes of comparison, The Tories had a 14% lead with ICM in July 2009
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tonight ICM LAB 313 CON 281 LD 28 Other 28

    Ed is crap is PM

    No tressle tables required
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    For the purposes of comparison, The Tories had a 14% lead with ICM in July 2009

    The past is a foreign country...
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    "Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't."

    I agree evertime Cameron tries to look like a leader he comes across as a fake.

    Not a coincidence that your icon is a cat is it?

    Not really thought about it that way, Mr. L. Cats can, with care, be led, they cannot be driven and they know the difference - a bit like most Englishmen.

    The picture, by the way is of The Brute who last night, because of electrical failure/carelessness on my part, had his bedtime milk served too cold for his liking. By the cringe, did he have his revenge. From 3am we had the cat serenade meow session interspersed with games of elephants on the landing, squeaky toy smack down and zooms across the bed. It was as if he had been reading the CatfoodBreath twitter feed and using it as a guide. Finally, as it got towards getting up time, The Brute decided to play, "Guess how loudly I can purr". Needless to say he has barely moved from his chair since breakfast and I have made fixing the bottle warmer my priority.
    My daughter won't feed her cats milk. She says it is not good for them. They do, however, have a range of tricks, some of which were amusing even on the second occasion.

    It sounds as if yours has you well trained though.

    That is very unfair, Mr L.. The Bute doesn't have me trained but as, he is going to live with us whether I like it or not, I find it easier and less expensive to reach a mutually acceptable modus vivendi.

    P.S. Re milk being bad for cats. Herself read that a while back and tried to impose the rule. It was while we were recovering from that fiasco that we got into the whole "temperature of the milk at bed time" nonsense. Not my fault, I was away when she first started warming The Brute's milk.
    My cats have all had cow's milk, until one of the latest one's whose digestive system didn't agree with it. I guess it varies from cat to cat, just as it does with humans.

    Interestingly, over-generalising from single incidents is something that helped to kill off the Greenland Norse. For some reason they decided to stop eating fish - perhaps one of their chieftains choked on a fish bone at some point and wouldn't allow them? - and this meant that as the climate cooled down they were too reliant on a small range of food sources and couldn't survive. Unlike the Inuit who ate everything that was available to them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    New Thread
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    As long as it's not someone called Ed... from Speccie (Hague?)

    Isabel on a rumour doing the rounds:
    In terms of what we can expect from this evening, it looks as though the announcements will predominantly be sackings. But there is a rumour that there may be a big announcement at some point tonight, possibly an unexpected retirement.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited July 2014
    DavidL said:

    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    Will the ICM continue to show that George Osborne is the most popular UK wide politician, and that Ed Miliband is worse than Nick Clegg?

    One of my theories about Osborne is that he is much more comfortable in his own skin than Cameron. He has no problems at all being posh or rich. No trips on Easyjet flights for him or his wife. No hesitation about going on expensive skiing trips.

    Ultimately, he looks more genuine as a result. Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't. Ed has similar problems when he tries to pretend he has anything in common with those he purports to represent.

    Of course rolling a double 6 on the economy has not done him any harm either.

    Osborne has turned positively loquacious on Twitter. It makes a big difference from a couple of years ago when the was hunkered down in No 11 and had the 'submarine' nickname.

    Interestingly, ever since she watched a documentary about Mandelson that was released just after GE2010, my wife has always said Osborne has a bit of a spark about him. This was based on a little dig he had at Mandelson when he appeared alongside him in a scene at the leaders debate.
    I think he and Mandelson have always had quite a high regard for each other and their abilities. This is the latest example: http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/diary/9219411/peter-mandelsons-diary-the-accomplishments-of-george-osborne-and-vladimir-putin/

    Still plenty of stick but plenty of regard too.

    I think it is a pity that the country has not found a use for Mandelson's talents over the last 4 years. We don't have enough people of his competence involved in our politics.
    You've got to be kidding. The man is pure, peculating slime. He is unfit for public life in any way.

    I am reminded of that comment of Napoleon's on St Helena that his greatest regret was never having had Fouché shot.

    Or do I mean that comment of Napoleon's about Talleyrand where he told him he was "shit in silk stockings"?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    TGOHF said:

    Tories ahead with ICM

    Con 34 (+3) lab 33 (+1) LD 12 (+2) UKIP 9 (-7)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/14/ukip-guardian-icm-poll-tories-labour-nigel-farage

    Stick a fork in the Kipper - they are done.

    Ed is not PM : Con + LD + Orange NI = Cam PM.
    Not on those percentages would need Scots Nat and PC as well. I am afraid even on those percentages Ed is crap is PM
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    "Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't."

    I agree evertime Cameron tries to look like a leader he comes across as a fake.

    Since Cameron is considered by voters to be the best leader it must follow that he's not trying very hard to appear as one.

  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Chart of ICM/Guardian polls since 2010 general election...
    http://www.mediafire.com/view/ppajez4nrpjapp4/ICM_Guardian_polls_since_2010_GE.jpg
    (UKIP gaps due not always prompted)

    Showing a similar squeeze to an averaged YouGov polls over the same period...
    http://www.mediafire.com/view/3xdx8azi2b2ggjq/10-Poll_YouGov_since_2010_GE.jpg
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    ICM Ukip drop 7 points? - wtf is going on, they've not been in the news all week - baffled.
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