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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lib Dems drop 4 to just 7% in today’s Ashcroft phone poll. Earlier, though, Populus had them up 1

The LD 7% the the lowest recorded since the Ashcroft weekly phone poll began in May. What’s is startling is the size of the fall from 11% to just 7% in just a week. This is greater than the margin of error.

Read the full story here

Anorak

Ashcroft's polls have more ups and downs than Jordan's knickers.

TheScreamingEagles

1 point behind the Greens!

TheScreamingEagles

Anorak said:

Ashcrofts polls have more ups and downs than Jordan's knickers.

Absolutely disgraceful and inaccurate comment.

I happen to know she doesn't wear knickers.

isam

Kippers the most likely to vote as they indicated

Hang on, surely 77% of the 7% of lib Dems aren't thinking of voting for someone else??? that can't be right

Does it mean 2010 lib dem voters?

Sean_F

For once, the Ashcroft poll seems pretty much in line with everyone else.

Sean_F

Anorak said:

Ashcroft's polls have more ups and downs than Jordan's knickers.

Are you imputing unchastity to Katie Price?

TheScreamingEagles

fpt - Tories soaring thanks to their new policies on surveillance, the public supports them, and hates those bloody whinging Civil Libertarians who would rather see us blown up by terrorists

Quincel

The Ashcroft National Poll has many charms, but consistency isn't one of them (arguably the very apparent noise is a charm too, don't get me wrong). If there was any poll where I'm willing to discount a high or low number as an outlier it's his. Ashcroft, to his credit, generally cites a moving average of his poll as the best use of it.

TheScreamingEagles

Huzzah, ICM tonight.

Anorak

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anorak said:

Ashcrofts polls have more ups and downs than Jordan's knickers.

Absolutely disgraceful and inaccurate comment.

I happen to know she doesn't wear knickers.

So these are your new shoes then?

http://www.toiletspycamera.com/pinhole-spy-camera/hidden-shoe-spy-camera.html

TheScreamingEagles

Anorak said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anorak said:

Ashcrofts polls have more ups and downs than Jordan's knickers.

Absolutely disgraceful and inaccurate comment.

I happen to know she doesn't wear knickers.

So these are your new shoes then?

http://www.toiletspycamera.com/pinhole-spy-camera/hidden-shoe-spy-camera.html

Not my style, far too plain and boring.

felix

The Ashcroft poll remains a bit of a joke - yet the credence given here to his marginal polling is extraordinary.

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

Huzzah, ICM tonight.

A grown up poll, at last.

It is useful to know what margin of error should be applied to the others. My guess is that Labour's lead will have grown slightly since the last one.

OblitusSumMe

The decline is almost wholly in the percentage of 2010 Lib Dems who tell Ashcroft they will stick with the Lib Dems. This percentage is just 17% in today's poll, but was 36% in last week's poll (itself a record high in Ashcroft's series I think).

These percentages are calculated on the basis of 107 people who told Ashcroft they voted Lib Dem in 2010 last week and just 85 this week. The 95% margin of error on a sample of 85 is +/- 10.6% - so both week's figures are consistent with no change from an underlying value of ~26%. The average over the last six polls for this value is 25.7%.

There is thus insufficient evidence that this poll reflects a real change in public opinion - for all that the headline numbers have changed by more than the margin of error.

Richard_Nabavi

Whilst it's true that events appear to be developing in a way not entirely to the advantage of the LibDems, I'm not sure that this Ashcroft poll compared with last week's is particularly evidence of that. The weighted sample size of 457 is not sufficient to distinguish weekly movements from noise even in the Con or Lab figures, let alone in parties getting only around 10% of the putative vote share.

Cyclefree

Isn't the key thing about all these polls is that, day in, day out, they all show a Labour lead and have done for the past 2 years?

[Deleted User]

7%! You'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh.

TheScreamingEagles

Cyclefree said:

Isn't the key thing about all these polls is that, day in, day out, they all show a Labour lead and have done for the past 2 years?

Except the four that didn't.

It's better looking at the long term trend.

A couple of years ago, Labour were consistently polling in the 40s and had double digit leads.

Bond_James_Bond

I don't know about the rest but come the GE those LD and UKIP figures will be reversed, or certainly closer to reversed than they will be to this.

Morris_Dancer

Ashcroft's polling is entertainingly bouncy. Not sure how seriously I take it, however.

TheScreamingEagles

Poor Dan Hannan is going to rue the day with this tweet.

Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP 2m

I'm worried that UKIP's cyber-nats, like their SNP equivalents, are alienating moderate voters in advance of the referendum.

CarlottaVance

@eyespymp: A grinning Liam Fox, holding court on the Members' Terrace as if he has just heard some good news.

DavidL

OblitusSumMe said:

The decline is almost wholly in the percentage of 2010 Lib Dems who tell Ashcroft they will stick with the Lib Dems. This percentage is just 17% in today's poll, but was 36% in last week's poll (itself a record high in Ashcroft's series I think).

These percentages are calculated on the basis of 107 people who told Ashcroft they voted Lib Dem in 2010 last week and just 85 this week. The 95% margin of error on a sample of 85 is +/- 10.6% - so both week's figures are consistent with no change from an underlying value of ~26%. The average over the last six polls for this value is 25.7%.

There is thus insufficient evidence that this poll reflects a real change in public opinion - for all that the headline numbers have changed by more than the margin of error.

That is a slightly more mathematical way of saying it is somewhat unlikely that nearly 1 in 3 of those who have stuck with the Lib Dems through the misery of the last 4 years decided to pack it in this week and move on.

SimonStClare

Taxi...!

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poor Dan Hannan is going to rue the day with this tweet.

Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP 2m

I'm worried that UKIP's cyber-nats, like their SNP equivalents, are alienating moderate voters in advance of the referendum.

The danger lies in getting high on one's own supply.

If there's a referendum on pulling out of the EU, all the passion and verve will be on the Out side, as it is in the Scottish referendum. We'll be the ones whose posters will outnumber the In campaign 10-1, and organising packed public meetings.

But, that may not be anything like enough to overcome the fear of leaping into the dark.

DavidL

Just seen in Mike's box that of the 7% who are allegedly going to vote Lib Dem only 23% are really sure that they will. Just under 2% of the whole.

What were those odds on lost deposits again?

BobaFett

@Morris
This poll is somewhat dull.
I was fully expecting a Green lead.
Either that or the Liberals on 90% with Lab and the Tories scoring an aggregate of 2%.

Ishmael_X

Patrick said:

7%! You'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh.

And the LDs are not toxic - OGH says so. Think what it would do to their vote share if hey were.

Speedy

CarlottaVance said:

@eyespymp: A grinning Liam Fox, holding court on the Members' Terrace as if he has just heard some good news.

Will all those who resigned in disgrace become ministers again just before the GE, very risky strategy (they might get involved in another scandal or the old ones might flare up again), but Cameron was never a strategist.
If Fox gets involved in another scandal Cameron's judgement will be called piss poor for the nth time, but this time it will be during an election campaign.

DavidL

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poor Dan Hannan is going to rue the day with this tweet.

Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP 2m

I'm worried that UKIP's cyber-nats, like their SNP equivalents, are alienating moderate voters in advance of the referendum.

The danger lies in getting high on one's own supply.

If there's a referendum on pulling out of the EU, all the passion and verve will be on the Out side, as it is in the Scottish referendum. We'll be the ones whose posters will outnumber the In campaign 10-1, and organising packed public meetings.

But, that may not be anything like enough to overcome the fear of leaping into the dark.

Excellent post. That is exactly how it is at the moment.

Quincel

DavidL said:

Just seen in Mike's box that of the 7% who are allegedly going to vote Lib Dem only 23% are really sure that they will. Just under 2% of the whole.

What were those odds on lost deposits again?

4.5 on over 200 is the top category. It's a market of odds which says "We have no idea what will happen either" though!

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/lib-dem-deposit-losses

Speedy

I think we should disregard the weekly Ashcroft polls for a monthly average of Ashcroft polls.
Todays poll only shows though how soft the existing 7% of LD votes is, they can fall much lower that 7%.

TheScreamingEagles

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poor Dan Hannan is going to rue the day with this tweet.

Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP 2m

I'm worried that UKIP's cyber-nats, like their SNP equivalents, are alienating moderate voters in advance of the referendum.

The danger lies in getting high on one's own supply.

If there's a referendum on pulling out of the EU, all the passion and verve will be on the Out side, as it is in the Scottish referendum. We'll be the ones whose posters will outnumber the In campaign 10-1, and organising packed public meetings.

But, that may not be anything like enough to overcome the fear of leaping into the dark.

Indeed, it's funny that Pro-Europeans have been called scumbags and traitors in recent weeks.

DavidL

CarlottaVance said:

@eyespymp: A grinning Liam Fox, holding court on the Members' Terrace as if he has just heard some good news.

Maybe he reads the Daily Mail? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2690011/Surprise-comeback-Liam-Fox-Cameron-plans-radical-reshuffle-promotes-leading-women-Tories.html

Actually I would put money on him doing so. ..Sigh.

BobaFett

@Felix

Not really. There is a vast difference in sample size.

Carnyx

Hope everyone is well - am currently too busy with things to do anything more than read the actual articles (for which many thanks as always).

BTW: just for the record, I am not the Carnyx on the Grauniad comments site. Inadvertent homonymy!

isam

DavidL said:

Just seen in Mike's box that of the 7% who are allegedly going to vote Lib Dem only 23% are really sure that they will. Just under 2% of the whole.

What were those odds on lost deposits again?

Yes I noticed that, no one answered my question... Can that be right?

Of course they will pick up votes for the other parties current voters, so don't get too carried away!

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poor Dan Hannan is going to rue the day with this tweet.

Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP 2m

I'm worried that UKIP's cyber-nats, like their SNP equivalents, are alienating moderate voters in advance of the referendum.

The danger lies in getting high on one's own supply.

If there's a referendum on pulling out of the EU, all the passion and verve will be on the Out side, as it is in the Scottish referendum. We'll be the ones whose posters will outnumber the In campaign 10-1, and organising packed public meetings.

But, that may not be anything like enough to overcome the fear of leaping into the dark.

Indeed, it's funny that Pro-Europeans have been called scumbags and traitors in recent weeks.

I think there are very important lessons that eurosceptics need to learn from the likely failure of the Yes campaign.

Refraining from reviling one's opponents (whatever one thinks of them in private) is the first of these.

DavidL

Quincel said:

DavidL said:

Just seen in Mike's box that of the 7% who are allegedly going to vote Lib Dem only 23% are really sure that they will. Just under 2% of the whole.

What were those odds on lost deposits again?

4.5 on over 200 is the top category. It's a market of odds which says "We have no idea what will happen either" though!

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/lib-dem-deposit-losses

That is really not generous for a party that, IIRC, lost none the last time.

DecrepitJohnL

When do the universities pack up and another generation of graduates joins the jobs and debts markets? It should be round about now, surely, which might affect voting intentions.

Quincel

DavidL said:

Quincel said:

DavidL said:

Just seen in Mike's box that of the 7% who are allegedly going to vote Lib Dem only 23% are really sure that they will. Just under 2% of the whole.

What were those odds on lost deposits again?

4.5 on over 200 is the top category. It's a market of odds which says "We have no idea what will happen either" though!

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/lib-dem-deposit-losses

That is really not generous for a party that, IIRC, lost none the last time.

Your memory is correct. The only party who ran in a significant number of seats to achieve that, btw.

EDIT: Hey, someone's made an excellent website with data on this for every party, large and small.

http://ethicsgirls.com/bnpcost/

fitalass

FPT. We don't know what Labour Leadership ambitions David and Ed Miliband had shared with each other over the years in the run up to that contest. But its without a doubt irreparable damaged the relationship between these two brothers and fractured their wider family as a result. Whether David or Ed Miliband thought that coming out on top of this sibling rivalry and winning the contest was worth it regardless of the damage it caused to them both personally is one thing. But such a close result, and with Ed Miliband just pipping his brother to the post with the backing of the Unions as their 'Anyone but David Miliband' candidate was never going to make it easier to build bridges among the wider Labour party, never mind these two brothers after the divisive Blair/Brown years.

Like Blair and Brown in the early years of New Labour, either of the Miliband brothers would have proved to have been a stronger and more formidable Labour Leader in Opposition with the other brother in the role of close, LOYAL and supportive Shadow Cabinet colleague IMHO. That David and Ed Miliband could not put the Labour party first by reaching an agreement whereby one of them stood aside for the other and then backed them in the Leadership contest was always going to end up not only damaging brand Miliband, but also the Labour party regardless of who eventually won. And more importantly, it made the job of unifying the Blair/Brown fractions at the top of the Labour party that much harder to achieve. And anyone who believes that Ed Miliband has even managed to paper over the cracks in the last four years is in denial.

The only people who have benefited politically within the Labour party from the Miliband brothers running against each other in that Labour Leadership contest are Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper. But then, they were astute enough to never put their marriage or their joint political ambitions at risk by ever contemplating running against each other in the Leadership contest!

Bond_James_Bond said:

Flightpath said:

''If he was such a family man, why didn't he register himself as the father of his first child until the boy was 18 months old?''

Miliband does not believe in 'family'. He is a socialist - if in power we would soon see his marxist tendencies - he only registered the birth and got married as a political convenience. He does not belive in marriage he believes in units of cohabitation. He believes in directing us poor simple people for the benefit of our own good.

In no circumstances would I ever apply for a job if my getting it meant my brother did not. this is obviously not a concern to the Milibands; maybe they hate each other. Yet another strike against them.

TheScreamingEagles

Iran sentences eight Facebook activists to total of 127 years in prison for 'criticising government'

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-sentences-eight-facebook-activists-to-total-of-127-years-in-prison-for-criticising-government-9605284.html

TheScreamingEagles

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poor Dan Hannan is going to rue the day with this tweet.

Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP 2m

I'm worried that UKIP's cyber-nats, like their SNP equivalents, are alienating moderate voters in advance of the referendum.

The danger lies in getting high on one's own supply.

If there's a referendum on pulling out of the EU, all the passion and verve will be on the Out side, as it is in the Scottish referendum. We'll be the ones whose posters will outnumber the In campaign 10-1, and organising packed public meetings.

But, that may not be anything like enough to overcome the fear of leaping into the dark.

Indeed, it's funny that Pro-Europeans have been called scumbags and traitors in recent weeks.

I think there are very important lessons that eurosceptics need to learn from the likely failure of the Yes campaign.

Refraining from reviling one's opponents (whatever one thinks of them in private) is the first of these.

I wonder what will happen if the EU referendum is a close stay in?

Speedy

DavidL said:

Just seen in Mike's box that of the 7% who are allegedly going to vote Lib Dem only 23% are really sure that they will. Just under 2% of the whole.

What were those odds on lost deposits again?

Well the low bound for LD votes is the total number of candidates, their family, their associates and friends plus party members. I recon somewhere in the range of 50-150k votes nationwide, around the english democrats performance per seat in 2010.

Richard_Nabavi

Sean_F said:

I think there are very important lessons that eurosceptics need to learn from the likely failure of the Yes campaign.

Refraining from reviling one's opponents (whatever one thinks of them in private) is the first of these.

Yes, but perhaps even more important is taking legitimate concerns and questions seriously. As you said, the Out side are inevitably proposing a bit of a leap in the dark (or something which is easy to portray as a leap in the dark), so you need to have some serious and consistent answers to questions about the shape of any future deal with the EU. What you mustn't do is emulate Salmond's bluster, pretending that you can impose a deal on our EU friends which is entirely as we would wish and which takes zero account of what they will be saying.

I have to say, I think it's a hopeless task (and I also fear that the BOOers will fail miserably to learn either lesson). That's why I favour renegotiation to get a gentle disengagement, but I accept that that too is very problematic. Basically, we shouldn't have started from here.

JackW

Will the Vicar of Dibley now become a bishop ?

GIN1138

Nevermind - Have read thread header properly.

OldKingCole

Ishmael_X said:

Patrick said:

7%! You'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh.

And the LDs are not toxic - OGH says so. Think what it would do to their vote share if hey were.

I can't recall seeing much about the LibDems in the press recently, except in relation to Cyril Smith, who, ironically, was very much against the merger. An exception has been Private Eye's repeated references to Mike Hancock.
Small wonder that their figures are bad.

I'm beginning to regret putting money on Clegg to go before the GE, which in my view would result in some positive public reaction, but currently live in hope of the reshuffle.

CarlottaVance

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

@eyespymp: A grinning Liam Fox, holding court on the Members' Terrace as if he has just heard some good news.

Maybe he reads the Daily Mail? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2690011/Surprise-comeback-Liam-Fox-Cameron-plans-radical-reshuffle-promotes-leading-women-Tories.html

Actually I would put money on him doing so. ..Sigh.

If only Liam Fox was as remotely clever as he thinks he is......

Sean_F

JackW said:

Will the Vicar of Dibley now become a bishop ?

I'd prefer Rev. Bernice from the League of Gentlemen to become a Bishop.

TheScreamingEagles

Red on Red

Owen Jones ‏@OwenJones84 1m

Charles Clarke: a pompous pub bore whose sole purpose is an occasional slight morale boost in Conservative Party HQ http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/07/10/charles-clarke-ed-miliband-interview_n_5574103.html?1405334984 …

TheScreamingEagles

GIN1138 said:

Nevermind - Have read thread header properly.

Yes, but they may hold it until tomorrow.

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

Iran sentences eight Facebook activists to total of 127 years in prison for 'criticising government'

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-sentences-eight-facebook-activists-to-total-of-127-years-in-prison-for-criticising-government-9605284.html

Imagine the collective sentences they would hand out to PB!

Edit. At least I would make the next meeting.

Speedy

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poor Dan Hannan is going to rue the day with this tweet.

Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP 2m

I'm worried that UKIP's cyber-nats, like their SNP equivalents, are alienating moderate voters in advance of the referendum.

The danger lies in getting high on one's own supply.

If there's a referendum on pulling out of the EU, all the passion and verve will be on the Out side, as it is in the Scottish referendum. We'll be the ones whose posters will outnumber the In campaign 10-1, and organising packed public meetings.

But, that may not be anything like enough to overcome the fear of leaping into the dark.

Indeed, it's funny that Pro-Europeans have been called scumbags and traitors in recent weeks.

I think there are very important lessons that eurosceptics need to learn from the likely failure of the Yes campaign.

Refraining from reviling one's opponents (whatever one thinks of them in private) is the first of these.

There is, don't make the referendum about the country a referendum about you.
There is already a negative impact on a potencial OUT vote because its identified with UKIP just like a YES vote is affected negatively because its identified with the SNP.

TheScreamingEagles

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Iran sentences eight Facebook activists to total of 127 years in prison for 'criticising government'

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-sentences-eight-facebook-activists-to-total-of-127-years-in-prison-for-criticising-government-9605284.html

Imagine the collective sentences they would hand out to PB!

Well what do you think the government snooping powers last week were all about?

Richard_Nabavi

TheScreamingEagles said:

Red on Red

Owen Jones ‏@OwenJones84 1m

Charles Clarke: a pompous pub bore whose sole purpose is an occasional slight morale boost in Conservative Party HQ http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/07/10/charles-clarke-ed-miliband-interview_n_5574103.html?1405334984 …

Actually it's an exceptionally interesting interview, in lots of ways.

Ex-politicians are able to say so much more than current politicians.

DavidL

CarlottaVance said:

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

@eyespymp: A grinning Liam Fox, holding court on the Members' Terrace as if he has just heard some good news.

Maybe he reads the Daily Mail? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2690011/Surprise-comeback-Liam-Fox-Cameron-plans-radical-reshuffle-promotes-leading-women-Tories.html

Actually I would put money on him doing so. ..Sigh.

If only Liam Fox was as remotely clever as he thinks he is......

Quite.

JackW

Sean_F said:

JackW said:

Will the Vicar of Dibley now become a bishop ?

I'd prefer Rev. Bernice from the League of Gentlemen to become a Bishop.

Yes .. yes yes yes yes yes yes

No ....

Jim Trott.

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

Red on Red

Owen Jones ‏@OwenJones84 1m

Charles Clarke: a pompous pub bore whose sole purpose is an occasional slight morale boost in Conservative Party HQ http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/07/10/charles-clarke-ed-miliband-interview_n_5574103.html?1405334984 …

I thought it was only PBTories that thought Ed was a dud?

TGOHF

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Red on Red

Owen Jones ‏@OwenJones84 1m

Charles Clarke: a pompous pub bore whose sole purpose is an occasional slight morale boost in Conservative Party HQ http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/07/10/charles-clarke-ed-miliband-interview_n_5574103.html?1405334984 …

Actually it's an exceptionally interesting interview, in lots of ways.

Ex-politicians are able to say so much more than current politicians.

Jones appears to castigate his character not CC's argument. As usual.

BobaFett

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Red on Red

Owen Jones ‏@OwenJones84 1m

Charles Clarke: a pompous pub bore whose sole purpose is an occasional slight morale boost in Conservative Party HQ http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/07/10/charles-clarke-ed-miliband-interview_n_5574103.html?1405334984 …

Actually it's an exceptionally interesting interview, in lots of ways.

Ex-politicians are able to say so much more than current politicians.

Would you praise it so highly if Clarke described Ed as a brilliant, non-crap, not at all weird natural leader and unifier?

Speedy

TheScreamingEagles said:

Red on Red

Owen Jones ‏@OwenJones84 1m

Charles Clarke: a pompous pub bore whose sole purpose is an occasional slight morale boost in Conservative Party HQ http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/07/10/charles-clarke-ed-miliband-interview_n_5574103.html?1405334984 …

Unpopular blairite failure critisises the Labour party, yawn.
They will never replicate the original Dan Hodges.

Speedy

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Red on Red

Owen Jones ‏@OwenJones84 1m

Charles Clarke: a pompous pub bore whose sole purpose is an occasional slight morale boost in Conservative Party HQ http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/07/10/charles-clarke-ed-miliband-interview_n_5574103.html?1405334984 …

I thought it was only PBTories that thought Ed was a dud?

You forgot PBHodges.

TGOHF

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Red on Red

Owen Jones ‏@OwenJones84 1m

Charles Clarke: a pompous pub bore whose sole purpose is an occasional slight morale boost in Conservative Party HQ http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/07/10/charles-clarke-ed-miliband-interview_n_5574103.html?1405334984 …

Unpopular blairite failure critisises the Labour party, yawn.
They will never replicate the original Dan Hodges.

Speedy appears to castigate his character not CC's argument. As usual.

HurstLlama

As we seem to be having a bit of a lull I wonder if I might float a question. How come there are so many people who apparently have well paid responsible jobs and yet have time to post on here during working hours?

TSE is a lawyer, fair enough if you are charging out your time at the prices he can then there is plenty of time for a hobby at work. Morris Dancer is a poor author doing the modern variant of an attic on the left bank. Mr. Woolie is a publican who, with the price of booze what it is these days, has more time than he would probably like to fool around on the internet. Then there are those of us (e.g. OldKingCole) who are genuinely retired to one degree or another. But what about the rest of you?

A person, supposedly a higher rate tax payer spends most of Monday posting on a web-site. How does that work?

DavidL

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Red on Red

Owen Jones ‏@OwenJones84 1m

Charles Clarke: a pompous pub bore whose sole purpose is an occasional slight morale boost in Conservative Party HQ http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/07/10/charles-clarke-ed-miliband-interview_n_5574103.html?1405334984 …

Actually it's an exceptionally interesting interview, in lots of ways.

Ex-politicians are able to say so much more than current politicians.

I didn't find his views on policy particularly insightful, revealing or interesting. The one bit I totally got was the tedium of being in Opposition. What a waste of life that must be.

john_zims

@Ishmael_X

'And the LDs are not toxic - OGH says so. Think what it would do to their vote share if hey were.'

They would need a leader like Clegg.

BobaFett

@TGOHF

A laughable lack of self awareness from one of the PB Tories' leading Ed is Weird wallahs.

Richard_Nabavi

BobaFett said:

Would you praise it so highly if Clarke described Ed as a brilliant, non-crap, not at all weird natural leader and unifier?

Have you actually read it? There's a lot of interesting stuff in there, about immigration and religion in schools for example. I'm not saying I agree with it, but he makes some thought-provoking and unusual points.

As for Ed, as well as criticising his strategy (in which he is spot-on IMO), he says this:

How about Ed? Can people close their eyes for a moment and see him standing on the doorstep of Number 10 Downing Street? Does he pass the "blink test"?

Clarke's answer, given his earlier criticisms of Miliband, rather surprises me. "He does actually. I think he has a problem with the population, undoubtedly.. he is an intelligent man, he'd be a good prime minister. I don't myself think he's geeky.. I think those are offensive-type descriptions. I don't go along with all that stuff."

But of course the usual Labour group-thinkers dismissed the whole article before they got to that bit.

TheScreamingEagles

BobaFett said:

@TGOHF

A laughable lack of self awareness from one of the PB Tories' leading Ed is Weird wallahs.

Since Antifrank isn't around, it's the voters who have decided Ed is weird.

Vox populi, vox Dei

TheScreamingEagles

Will the ICM continue to show that George Osborne is the most popular UK wide politician, and that Ed Miliband is worse than Nick Clegg?

murali_s

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

Isn't the key thing about all these polls is that, day in, day out, they all show a Labour lead and have done for the past 2 years?

Except the four that didn't.

It's better looking at the long term trend.

A couple of years ago, Labour were consistently polling in the 40s and had double digit leads.

Yep the lead is down from about 10 pts to about 4-5 pts.

Still more than enough for Ed is crap to be PM.

Anyway, as per yesterday's thread - what is more of a driver - Ed's weirdness or the ricin like toxicity of the Tories?

DavidL

HurstLlama said:

As we seem to be having a bit of a lull I wonder if I might float a question. How come there are so many people who apparently have well paid responsible jobs and yet have time to post on here during working hours?

TSE is a lawyer, fair enough if you are charging out your time at the prices he can then there is plenty of time for a hobby at work. Morris Dancer is a poor author doing the modern variant of an attic on the left bank. Mr. Woolie is a publican who, with the price of booze what it is these days, has more time than he would probably like to fool around on the internet. Then there are those of us (e.g. OldKingCole) who are genuinely retired to one degree or another. But what about the rest of you?

A person, supposedly a higher rate tax payer spends most of Monday posting on a web-site. How does that work?

Being self employed I have an extremely indulgent boss (and I only seem able to work these days when something is really urgent).

JackW

BobaFett said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Red on Red

Owen Jones ‏@OwenJones84 1m

Charles Clarke: a pompous pub bore whose sole purpose is an occasional slight morale boost in Conservative Party HQ http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/07/10/charles-clarke-ed-miliband-interview_n_5574103.html?1405334984 …

Actually it's an exceptionally interesting interview, in lots of ways.

Ex-politicians are able to say so much more than current politicians.

Would you praise it so highly if Clarke described Ed as a brilliant, non-crap, not at all weird natural leader and unifier?

Of course Nabbers would praise it .... he's a big enthusiast of science fiction.

Beam us up BobaFett ....

TheScreamingEagles

HurstLlama said:

As we seem to be having a bit of a lull I wonder if I might float a question. How come there are so many people who apparently have well paid responsible jobs and yet have time to post on here during working hours?

TSE is a lawyer, fair enough if you are charging out your time at the prices he can then there is plenty of time for a hobby at work. Morris Dancer is a poor author doing the modern variant of an attic on the left bank. Mr. Woolie is a publican who, with the price of booze what it is these days, has more time than he would probably like to fool around on the internet. Then there are those of us (e.g. OldKingCole) who are genuinely retired to one degree or another. But what about the rest of you?

A person, supposedly a higher rate tax payer spends most of Monday posting on a web-site. How does that work?

I can multi-task you know!

TheScreamingEagles

murali_s said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

Isn't the key thing about all these polls is that, day in, day out, they all show a Labour lead and have done for the past 2 years?

Except the four that didn't.

It's better looking at the long term trend.

A couple of years ago, Labour were consistently polling in the 40s and had double digit leads.

Yep the lead is down from about 10 pts to about 4-5 pts.

Still more than enough for Ed is crap to be PM.

Anyway, as per yesterday's thread - what is more of a driver - Ed's weirdness or the ricin like toxicity of the Tories?

Ed's more unpopular than the Tories.

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

Will the ICM continue to show that George Osborne is the most popular UK wide politician, and that Ed Miliband is worse than Nick Clegg?

One of my theories about Osborne is that he is much more comfortable in his own skin than Cameron. He has no problems at all being posh or rich. No trips on Easyjet flights for him or his wife. No hesitation about going on expensive skiing trips.

Ultimately, he looks more genuine as a result. Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't. Ed has similar problems when he tries to pretend he has anything in common with those he purports to represent.

Of course rolling a double 6 on the economy has not done him any harm either.

Bond_James_Bond

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

As we seem to be having a bit of a lull I wonder if I might float a question. How come there are so many people who apparently have well paid responsible jobs and yet have time to post on here during working hours?

TSE is a lawyer, fair enough if you are charging out your time at the prices he can then there is plenty of time for a hobby at work. Morris Dancer is a poor author doing the modern variant of an attic on the left bank. Mr. Woolie is a publican who, with the price of booze what it is these days, has more time than he would probably like to fool around on the internet. Then there are those of us (e.g. OldKingCole) who are genuinely retired to one degree or another. But what about the rest of you?

A person, supposedly a higher rate tax payer spends most of Monday posting on a web-site. How does that work?

I can multi-task you know!

It's the conference calls. You stick the phone on loudspeaker and the microphone on mute, eloquently and wittily make a total fool of Boba or malcolmg, then go back to work and leave them fuming. You can't be heard typing or laughing as they blow their tops again.

Till the next conference call.

Has malcolmg been banned? He should be. Save him running away when he loses in September.

I'm the first person I know who got a squawk box phone at home, in 1988. I used to put the parents on it and wander around doing stuff that's actually useful.

HurstLlama

JackW said:

Will the Vicar of Dibley now become a bishop ?

Could be, Mr. W., could be. However, like every other attempt by the CofE to appear relevant and modern it will fail. Some years ago I was walking back from church with my son when he said, "I was the only person in church that didn't have grey hair" and he was correct. The congregation of my local church at the main service is the ever decreasing number of grey hairs attending more out of habit than conviction and a smallish number of families with young children who are desperate to get some brownie points so as to get their offspring into the grossly over-subscribed village school.

In my lifetime every time the CofE has come up with a plan to be modern and relevant the congregation has fallen. Maybe one day the CofE will recognise that actually having a set of beliefs is a crowd puller. I doubt it though.

SimonStClare

TheScreamingEagles said:

Will the ICM continue to show that George Osborne is the most popular UK wide politician, and that Ed Miliband is worse than Nick Clegg?

No idea - I've yet to come to terms with Osborne being the most popular politician, especially after 'handicapparkingspacegate'...

Bond_James_Bond

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Will the ICM continue to show that George Osborne is the most popular UK wide politician, and that Ed Miliband is worse than Nick Clegg?

One of my theories about Osborne is that he is much more comfortable in his own skin than Cameron. He has no problems at all being posh or rich. No trips on Easyjet flights for him or his wife. No hesitation about going on expensive skiing trips.

Ultimately, he looks more genuine as a result. Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't. Ed has similar problems when he tries to pretend he has anything in common with those he purports to represent.

Of course rolling a double 6 on the economy has not done him any harm either.

But does he have Ed's intellectual self-confidence?

Or Ed's PlayMobil hair?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. W, lots of sci-fi on tonight. Farscape at 7, The 100 (The 97?) at 9 and Battlestar Galactica at the ridiculous time of midnight (assuming they haven't returned it to a more sensible slot).

DavidL

Bond_James_Bond said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Will the ICM continue to show that George Osborne is the most popular UK wide politician, and that Ed Miliband is worse than Nick Clegg?

One of my theories about Osborne is that he is much more comfortable in his own skin than Cameron. He has no problems at all being posh or rich. No trips on Easyjet flights for him or his wife. No hesitation about going on expensive skiing trips.

Ultimately, he looks more genuine as a result. Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't. Ed has similar problems when he tries to pretend he has anything in common with those he purports to represent.

Of course rolling a double 6 on the economy has not done him any harm either.

But does he have Ed's intellectual self-confidence?

Or Ed's PlayMobil hair?

I don't think his worst enemy would accuse Osborne of lacking self confidence. Awareness perhaps, but definitely not self confidence.

Stuart_Dickson

Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Sub-sample size = 194
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)

Lab 33% (-9)
SNP 25% (+5)
Con 24% (+7)
UKIP 7% (+6)
LD 7% (-12)
Grn 2% (+1)
BNP 1% (+1)

Baxtered:

SLab 38 seats (-3)
SNP 10 seats (+4)
SCon 9 seats (+8)
SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

SCon gains from SLD:
Argyll and Bute
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Edinburgh West
North East Fife
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

SCon gains from SLab:
Aberdeen South
Dumfries and Galloway
Edinburgh South

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

Cyclefree

HurstLlama said:

JackW said:

Will the Vicar of Dibley now become a bishop ?

Could be, Mr. W., could be. However, like every other attempt by the CofE to appear relevant and modern it will fail. Some years ago I was walking back from church with my son when he said, "I was the only person in church that didn't have grey hair" and he was correct. The congregation of my local church at the main service is the ever decreasing number of grey hairs attending more out of habit than conviction and a smallish number of families with young children who are desperate to get some brownie points so as to get their offspring into the grossly over-subscribed village school.

In my lifetime every time the CofE has come up with a plan to be modern and relevant the congregation has fallen. Maybe one day the CofE will recognise that actually having a set of beliefs is a crowd puller. I doubt it though.

Well if they start advocating legalised killing of oldies as per Lord Carey they'll be no-one left to go to church.......

FrancisUrquhart

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Will the ICM continue to show that George Osborne is the most popular UK wide politician, and that Ed Miliband is worse than Nick Clegg?

One of my theories about Osborne is that he is much more comfortable in his own skin than Cameron. He has no problems at all being posh or rich. No trips on Easyjet flights for him or his wife. No hesitation about going on expensive skiing trips.

Ultimately, he looks more genuine as a result. Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't. Ed has similar problems when he tries to pretend he has anything in common with those he purports to represent.

Of course rolling a double 6 on the economy has not done him any harm either.

That is such nonsense. He suffers just as badly as Cameron, if not worse, as a posho, who isn't really that posh, but still gets labelled as such. The man has had a careful image make over, and is very very careful about trying to manage situations. Think of all the burger nonsense and then it all about being a posh one, he was trying some spin and it backfired. The skiing trips, he has tried to keep a low profile on and isn't unashamed of.

If you want an example of posh and doesn't give two hoots, and people like him, Boris. He is unashamedly other worldly, he actually play up that image to the extreme and to his advantage. If Boris was "caught" eating a posh burger, you can bet your bottom dollar, he would have some humorous words about how the ancient Greeks used to do this or that...

Osborne and Miliband are of the same stock, upper middle class millionaire families, trying to have it both ways. Not from real posh stock, but like the trappings, while trying to convince everybody they like a pint down ta pub or a bacon butty from the greasy spoon.

TheScreamingEagles

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Will the ICM continue to show that George Osborne is the most popular UK wide politician, and that Ed Miliband is worse than Nick Clegg?

No idea - I've yet to come to terms with Osborne being the most popular politician, especially after 'handicapparkingspacegate'...

It was that time he ate a burger, I remember one or two posters getting excited over that, but when Ed ate a ham sandwich.

HurstLlama

"Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't."

I agree evertime Cameron tries to look like a leader he comes across as a fake.

DavidL

Stuart_Dickson said:

Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Sub-sample size = 194
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)

Lab 33% (-9)
SNP 25% (+5)
Con 24% (+7)
UKIP 7% (+6)
LD 7% (-12)
Grn 2% (+1)
BNP 1% (+1)

Baxtered:

SLab 38 seats (-3)
SNP 10 seats (+4)
SCon 9 seats (+8)
SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

SCon gains from SLD:
Argyll and Bute
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Edinburgh West
North East Fife
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

SCon gains from SLab:
Aberdeen South
Dumfries and Galloway
Edinburgh South

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

I think the Scottish tories would be happy with 3 of them, probably West Aberdeenshire, Berwickshire and Dumfries, but there is increasing evidence that some of the tartan tories who have been voting SNP for a long time now in the glens and the countryside are having second thoughts.

TheScreamingEagles

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Will the ICM continue to show that George Osborne is the most popular UK wide politician, and that Ed Miliband is worse than Nick Clegg?

One of my theories about Osborne is that he is much more comfortable in his own skin than Cameron. He has no problems at all being posh or rich. No trips on Easyjet flights for him or his wife. No hesitation about going on expensive skiing trips.

Ultimately, he looks more genuine as a result. Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't. Ed has similar problems when he tries to pretend he has anything in common with those he purports to represent.

Of course rolling a double 6 on the economy has not done him any harm either.

Osborne next Tory leader/PM.

TGOHF

BobaFett said:

@TGOHF

A laughable lack of self awareness from one of the PB Tories' leading Ed is Weird wallahs.

You don't need me - plenty of polling evidence that Ed is weird

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2587963/Ed-Miliband-WEIRD-say-40-voters-pressure-mounts-Labour-leader-poll-lead-Tories-slumped-one-point.html

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/ed-miliband-weak-weird-and-out-of-his-depth/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-15088869

DavidL

HurstLlama said:

"Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't."

I agree evertime Cameron tries to look like a leader he comes across as a fake.

Not a coincidence that your icon is a cat is it?

TheScreamingEagles

TGOHF said:

BobaFett said:

@TGOHF

A laughable lack of self awareness from one of the PB Tories' leading Ed is Weird wallahs.

You don't need me - plenty of polling evidence that Ed is weird

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2587963/Ed-Miliband-WEIRD-say-40-voters-pressure-mounts-Labour-leader-poll-lead-Tories-slumped-one-point.html

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/ed-miliband-weak-weird-and-out-of-his-depth/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-15088869

Don't you know, a PB Kinnock anecdote trumps any polling.

taffys

Fascinating Post Mr. Dickson, though its a mystery to me why BT should help tories/UKIP and yet hit Lib/LAB (given they are all on the same side!)

JonathanD

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Will the ICM continue to show that George Osborne is the most popular UK wide politician, and that Ed Miliband is worse than Nick Clegg?

One of my theories about Osborne is that he is much more comfortable in his own skin than Cameron. He has no problems at all being posh or rich. No trips on Easyjet flights for him or his wife. No hesitation about going on expensive skiing trips.

Ultimately, he looks more genuine as a result. Dave's worst moments have all been when he pretends to be something he isn't. Ed has similar problems when he tries to pretend he has anything in common with those he purports to represent.

Of course rolling a double 6 on the economy has not done him any harm either.

Osborne has turned positively loquacious on Twitter. It makes a big difference from a couple of years ago when the was hunkered down in No 11 and had the 'submarine' nickname.

Interestingly, ever since she watched a documentary about Mandelson that was released just after GE2010, my wife has always said Osborne has a bit of a spark about him. This was based on a little dig he had at Mandelson when he appeared alongside him in a scene at the leaders debate.

MarkSenior

Stuart_Dickson said:

Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Sub-sample size = 194
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)

Lab 33% (-9)
SNP 25% (+5)
Con 24% (+7)
UKIP 7% (+6)
LD 7% (-12)
Grn 2% (+1)
BNP 1% (+1)

Baxtered:

SLab 38 seats (-3)
SNP 10 seats (+4)
SCon 9 seats (+8)
SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

SCon gains from SLD:
Argyll and Bute
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Edinburgh West
North East Fife
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

SCon gains from SLab:
Aberdeen South
Dumfries and Galloway
Edinburgh South

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

Oh gawd , the Scottish sub sample dolt is back with us .
Strange he was not here posting Friday's Populus sub sample or last Monday's . Could it be that those polls had the Lib Dems at 11% in the Scottish sub samples and he did not like the figures .

TheScreamingEagles

taffys said:

Fascinating Post Mr. Dickson, though its a mystery to me why BT should help tories/UKIP and yet hit Lib/LAB (given they are all on the same side!)

There's a possibility that people are reading too much into unweighted sub-samples.

Stuart_Dickson

DavidL said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Yet more evidence in the Populus splits that the Scottish Tories and UKIP are benefiting hugely from the Better Together campaign. Conversely, the Lib-Labs (who governed in coalition for 8 years) are getting totally thumped. Donald Dewar, Robin Cook, John Smith et al must be spinning in their graves.

Populus - Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Sub-sample size = 194
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)

Lab 33% (-9)
SNP 25% (+5)
Con 24% (+7)
UKIP 7% (+6)
LD 7% (-12)
Grn 2% (+1)
BNP 1% (+1)

Baxtered:

SLab 38 seats (-3)
SNP 10 seats (+4)
SCon 9 seats (+8)
SLD 2 seats (-9) (only SLD MPs left: Kennedy + Carmichael)

SCon gains from SLD:
Argyll and Bute
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Edinburgh West
North East Fife
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

SCon gains from SLab:
Aberdeen South
Dumfries and Galloway
Edinburgh South

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OmOnline_Vote_14-07-2014_BPC.pdf

I think the Scottish tories would be happy with 3 of them, probably West Aberdeenshire, Berwickshire and Dumfries, but there is increasing evidence that some of the tartan tories who have been voting SNP for a long time now in the glens and the countryside are having second thoughts.

The Tory gains are going to result from the drop in the Labour and Lib Dem votes, not from any decline in the SNP vote. The shifts are entirely within the existing Unionist bloc, not between blocs:

SLD to SCon swing: 9.5 points
SLab to SCon swing: 8 points
SNP to SCon swing: 0.5 points

I repeat: the Lib-Labs are getting totally thumped. Cameron pulled a total blinder when he appointed Alistair Darling as his lieutenant in North Britain. It sapped the will to fight from half of the Scottish Labour Party.

Neil

Stuart_Dickson said:

The Tory gains are going to result from the drop in the Labour and Lib Dem votes

I dont suppose you're prepared to bet on the Tories gaining 8 MPs in Scotland?