Banco Espirito Santo (BES) is Portugal's second largest bank. It is 25% owned by the Espirito Santo Financial Group (ESFG).
Earlier this week, ESFG defaulted on some commercial paper in Luxembourg: that is, it failed to make scheduled interest payments to certain debt holders. This means that ESFG is 'in default'.
BES is owed just under €1.2bn by ESFG. While I don't know the details of ESFG's capital structure, and how senior the debt to BES is, it now looks extremely unlikely that BES will get all the money owed to it. (ESFG management is attempting to persuade people that the breach is minor, and the monies owed will soon be repaid. This looks unlikely.)
So: is BES bust because ESFG can't pay its debts?
Well, so long as BES is telling the truth, and its total exposure to ESFG is just €1.2bn, then no. BES had more than €2bn of 'excess capital' above and beyond the 8% requirement of Basle 2. So, even if the full €1.2bn to ESFG is lost, then BES would still probably have more than €1bn of excess liquidity, and would probably not even need a rights issue.
However.
It is possible BES's exposure to ESFG is much greater than is claimed. This can happen for legitimate reason (a market-maker owns some ESFG bonds, for example) or because there have been deliberate attempts to hide exposure.
If this is the case, then BES may be at risk. The nightmare scenario would be if exposure was much, much greater than claimed (say €5bn), and if ESFG was in very deep financial trouble itself. In which case, the Portugese government would almost certainly have to step in to guarantee BES, and this could lead to a cascade of problems at the bank leading to worsening government finances, leading to Portugal missing its fiscal targets, etc.
As an aside, it is not clear what has led to ESFG's problems. A cynic might suggest that the company's attempts to compete with Goldman Sachs, etc., via the Latin American focused Espirto Santo Investment Bank (which has a very nice London office just off Brick Lane) could be part of the problem.
I hope to do some more canvassing myself on Saturday.
Anything to avoid watching the Test match?
I don't blame you.
You think they will still be playing most of Saturday? Let's see if England can avoid the follow on today. Their hearts were broken (again) by that last wicket partnership yesterday. Under current leadership this team has forgotten how to win.
It's a really weakness, we had Ashton Agar scoring 98 last year, Tino best 95 the season before, England do have a problem with number 11s.
I suspect India will not enforce the follow on.
I suspect the next test match will be Cook's last test as Captain.
Whomever decided to play 5 tests in 42 days really does need a happy slapping.
No spinner on a dead track. Criminal Prior or Jimmy for the vpcaptaincy, let Cook remember how to bat with no pressure
Prior needs to be dropped, he's dropped a few sitters recently, he's injury prone and his batting over the last year has been like mine, very rubbish.
It's sad, but unsurprising perhaps, that more than a fifth of Scots have fallen out with someone close to them over independence.
On the basis that argumentative and passionate people are capable of falling out with more than one person, does it not reflect quite a small proportion of the population?
Consider the difference between the proportion of the population who are called David and the proportion of the population who know someone in their family, as a friend or at work who is called David.
I hope to do some more canvassing myself on Saturday.
Anything to avoid watching the Test match?
I don't blame you.
You think they will still be playing most of Saturday? Let's see if England can avoid the follow on today. Their hearts were broken (again) by that last wicket partnership yesterday. Under current leadership this team has forgotten how to win.
It's a really weakness, we had Ashton Agar scoring 98 last year, Tino best 95 the season before, England do have a problem with number 11s.
I suspect India will not enforce the follow on.
I suspect the next test match will be Cook's last test as Captain.
Whomever decided to play 5 tests in 42 days really does need a happy slapping.
Agreed, the decisions are still being made by the money men without any regard to the players or the supporters who are being short changed by weakened teams.
I really think Cook should have gone after Sri Lanka. He is still potentially a great batsman but he needs a serious break in county cricket to get his head back together and to work on his technique. If England persist with this head in the sand stuff they risk losing him for good. They may wait long enough to get one as good again.
You might well be, though as the Economist points out, you face tough challenges getting there.
You said Salmond had not promised Scots they would be better off.
He did.
Yes but as everyone knows it is not guaranteed, like with all politicians there are always ifs and buts. Also who knows how long either him or SNP would be in power. He thinks that we can make a better job of it than London do , it comes down to whether you think all is rosy in the garden or do you want the country to be run differently. I would like Scotland to be a better country , run by Scots with Scots deciding what we want and not with the current democratic deficit with everything at the whim of Westminster. rUK can go ahead and project their clout , fight illegal wars , have nuclear weapons, foodbanks , poverty etc I personally have a different vision of a fairer society. Despite being one of the "Haves" I do care about the "Have Nots" as well and do not see higher taxes as a disaster. I am not comfortable with the greed culture in UK, which may be just because I am not poor and unemployed etc but believe it is because I am a decent human being who would like to see a fairer society.
Do we get to keep 90% of Edinburgh Castle after Scottish independence? Presumably we get 90% of the Scottish parliament too, as that was funded by UK taxpayers.
Please, take it all.
The reality, of course, is that Scotland gets everything in Scotland. The rUK gets the rest - in the rUK and elsewhere.
Do we get to keep 90% of Edinburgh Castle after Scottish independence? Presumably we get 90% of the Scottish parliament too, as that was funded by UK taxpayers.
Please, take it all.
The reality, of course, is that Scotland gets everything in Scotland. The rUK gets the rest - in the rUK and elsewhere.
I fear for England today particularly as the pitch is slower than a tortoise marathon (or coastal erosion). I think i heard on TMS that yesterdays 10th wicket century partnership was the 9th against England in the last 5 series. England only had one in same timescale
You're not going to get a share of each individual asset.
What will happen is that there will be a totting up of the value of the assets owned by UK and that total value will be split between iScot and rUK. You would also take on a share of the UK's debt.
In practice, I'd imagine you will get 100% ownership of virtually all UK government assets in Scotland (I'm sure there will some exceptions, but who knows) and a proportionately lower share of assets outside the UK.
If I were iScot, I'd also look seriously at what Iceland does, which is to have a small annex/section of many Danish embassies to avoid the overhead costs of a completely separate facility. But that would be up to you.
Charles, I don't believe I mentioned getting the actual buildings, and I am not quite as stupid as you seem to believe. However the deal could be a shared embassy or a monetary amount in place of it , that remains to be seen. As has been on public view for a long time , Scotland would have a smaller network of embassies than current UK and would share some with whoever else as other small countries do. Given they could use EU embassies as you say and save a lot of money , it is not an issue. Any EU citizen can get help from any EU embassy, so unless the UK pulled out we could continue to use the UK network. I fail to see anything silly that I posted.
Good luck with that, since an independent Scotland would have left the EU, and have to re-apply for membership.
As for the existing embassies, you're rather foolishly and naively assuming, a la Salmond and the £, that rUK will let you use them.
Hm, if the EU decides to accept Scotland as a new member then it is highly likely that it could make it conditional on the following terms: Scotland becomes a member of the Eurozone, Scotland fully accepts the Schengen agreement and freely opens its doors to immigrants; Scotlands energy policy and resources becomes part of the EU's energy resource and policy, and its foreign policy and overseas representation are subsumed into the EU embassy and mission structure. At least that would save it some ministerial costs and tax collection.
outside our share of the UK embassies it makes sense to share.
What "share of UK embassies"?
Uk embassies belong to the UK.
You are voting to leave the UK.
You don't get a "share" of what you have opted to leave.....
You are oblivious to the fact that we own a share of the UK assets. If we are paying a share of your debts we will get a share of your assets , embassies included. I would prefer to have a clean break personally even though the asset share would be more financially beneficial for us.
So rUK will get 92% of Edinburgh Castle?
You are obviously not interested in an intelligent adult debate. Please find someone else to bother, I presume you love cricket, write childish bollocks on that.
Yes, the decline in the UKIP poll share has been much smaller this year than last year, while the peak reached was at the same level.
This suggests that UKIP are consolidating their support, but may struggle to do better than third in a general election.
It's also notable that this year it appears to be Labour who are recovering votes lost to UKIP, whereas last year it was the Conservatives.
I do feel very sorry for Nick Clegg, though. Coming out as an ardent Europhile - making a big fuss of being the "party of IN" - is precisely the sort of clear-talking and passionate debate that most people say they want from their politicians, and his reward appears to be to create another decline in the Lib Dem vote.
One fears that most other politicians will learn the lesson that obfuscation is better than clarity.
Do we get to keep 90% of Edinburgh Castle after Scottish independence? Presumably we get 90% of the Scottish parliament too, as that was funded by UK taxpayers.
Please, take it all.
The reality, of course, is that Scotland gets everything in Scotland. The rUK gets the rest - in the rUK and elsewhere.
LOL, you wish
No, I know.
Owning 90% of the British Embassy building in, say, Moscow is pretty much the same as owning it all. That's why the practicalities mean it will be as I say. The alternative is for the rUK to carry on owning 90% of all state assets in Scotland. I am sure we agree that would be ridiculous.
Do we get to keep 90% of Edinburgh Castle after Scottish independence? Presumably we get 90% of the Scottish parliament too, as that was funded by UK taxpayers.
Unfortunately SO that would mean we get lumbered with 10% of London that we paid for.
I suspect ground operations and GOTV skills are going to be vital.
Many people are expecting that the turnout will be quite high. If most people vote then won't that reduce the importance of a get out the vote operation?
In a by-election when the turnout is about half and at a general election when the turnout is not quite two-thirds then the get out the vote operation will be a lot more important than in a referendum where the turnout could be greater than four-fifths.
I agree with this but there is still some uncertainty about how pollsters are dealing with certainty to vote filters. The referendum is likely to get many people voting who normally don't bother and quite a lot of these traditional non participants are likely to vote yes. It is one of the reasons I am suspicious of weighting by political party (many of these voters are normally NOTA). I still think this is going to be closer than much of the polling indicates.
And what's all this picking on people called David by the way? We are famous for our cool, rational reasonableness and I will sort out anyone suggesting otherwise.
I hope to do some more canvassing myself on Saturday.
Anything to avoid watching the Test match?
I don't blame you.
You think they will still be playing most of Saturday? Let's see if England can avoid the follow on today. Their hearts were broken (again) by that last wicket partnership yesterday. Under current leadership this team has forgotten how to win.
It's a really weakness, we had Ashton Agar scoring 98 last year, Tino best 95 the season before, England do have a problem with number 11s.
I suspect India will not enforce the follow on.
I suspect the next test match will be Cook's last test as Captain.
Whomever decided to play 5 tests in 42 days really does need a happy slapping.
No spinner on a dead track. Criminal Prior or Jimmy for the vpcaptaincy, let Cook remember how to bat with no pressure
Prior needs to be dropped, he's dropped a few sitters recently, he's injury prone and his batting over the last year has been like mine, very rubbish.
Disagree. Prior is the man. Give it to Jimmy then and let him fly past Sir Ian as captain. All hail Sir James Anderson
I hope to do some more canvassing myself on Saturday.
Anything to avoid watching the Test match?
I don't blame you.
You think they will still be playing most of Saturday? Let's see if England can avoid the follow on today. Their hearts were broken (again) by that last wicket partnership yesterday. Under current leadership this team has forgotten how to win.
It's a really weakness, we had Ashton Agar scoring 98 last year, Tino best 95 the season before, England do have a problem with number 11s.
I suspect India will not enforce the follow on.
I suspect the next test match will be Cook's last test as Captain.
Whomever decided to play 5 tests in 42 days really does need a happy slapping.
No spinner on a dead track. Criminal Prior or Jimmy for the vpcaptaincy, let Cook remember how to bat with no pressure
Prior needs to be dropped, he's dropped a few sitters recently, he's injury prone and his batting over the last year has been like mine, very rubbish.
Disagree. Prior is the man. Give it to Jimmy then and let him fly past Sir Ian as captain. All hail Sir James Anderson
I want Sir Jimmy as Captain with Joe Root as Vice-Captain
Hm, if the EU decides to accept Scotland as a new member then it is highly likely that it could make it conditional on the following terms: Scotland becomes a member of the Eurozone, Scotland fully accepts the Schengen agreement and freely opens its doors to immigrants; Scotlands energy policy and resources becomes part of the EU's energy resource and policy, and its foreign policy and overseas representation are subsumed into the EU embassy and mission structure. At least that would save it some ministerial costs and tax collection.
outside our share of the UK embassies it makes sense to share.
What "share of UK embassies"?
Uk embassies belong to the UK.
You are voting to leave the UK.
You don't get a "share" of what you have opted to leave.....
You are oblivious to the fact that we own a share of the UK assets. If we are paying a share of your debts we will get a share of your assets , embassies included. I would prefer to have a clean break personally even though the asset share would be more financially beneficial for us.
So rUK will get 92% of Edinburgh Castle?
You are obviously not interested in an intelligent adult debate. Please find someone else to bother, I presume you love cricket, write childish bollocks on that.
In your book "intelligent adult debate" means not challenging anything the SNP says and calling anyone who disagrees with you a Scot and Scotland hating trougher....What's "adult" or "intelligent" about that?
Do we get to keep 90% of Edinburgh Castle after Scottish independence? Presumably we get 90% of the Scottish parliament too, as that was funded by UK taxpayers.
Unfortunately SO that would mean we get lumbered with 10% of London that we paid for.
The difference is that 90% is a controlling interest, 10% isn't.
Still waiting for a poll to show Yes in the lead. Crossover is non-existent compared to Westminster polling where the result is genuinely up in the air.
Yep. All the shoutiest Yessers seem to have melted away over the last few months. It's almost as though they know they're going to lose!
so, Malc, are you at one with the guy on QT last night who agreed that there is no point in gaining independence from the UK if you are only going to give it up again to the EU and hence the logical position of the nats is both Yes and out of EU?
No completely different. I am for being in EU but not a big deal for me one way or the other.
And there we see the vanity, the idleness and the sheer crushing triviality of Natism in one sentence.
Anyone know if there are any polls due today or whether i can close the UKPR swingometer window that is permanantly on standby for EICIPM purposes
Populus is due this morning.
Fantastic may have to post from Cineworld. That should make me popular lighting up the whole cinema every 5 mins to check the UKPR window is still fully operational.
Cineworld Sheffield? I'm a frequent visitor there, and will be there today.
I've actually written three PB threads from inside that cinema.
I do visit Sheffield about 75% of the time. I am a longstanding UGC/virgin customer, but will be making use of my unlimited card in Nottingham today on my way to see another Derbyshire T20 defeat at Northampton tonight.
Sheffields 6.7. and 8 screens are brilliant and have booked for next weeks secret screening do you know what it is yet? (hopefully Planet of The Apes and not Rolf Harris) Hopefully it will be in the IMAX.
BTW I dislike allocated seating more than I do Michael Gove
As Richard Nabavi said yesterday, the amount if YouGov polls compared to others makes that graph misleading
I've also realised there is a further very serious problem with it, specifically in the UKIP line.
The problem is that the 15-day moving average may be heavily affected by whether a given 15-day window happens to include polls by Survation and TNS BMRB, who release polls infrequently and whose UKIP figures are much bigger than YouGov's - for example, on 12 June TNS had 23% against YouGov's 12%. So what looks like a 'drop' in the UKIP moving average might simply reflect the TNS and Survation polls falling out of the figures used to make up the moving average.
This is the kind of reason why the experts don't recommend averaging polls.
Overall, the average lines should be treated with caution. Certainly for evaluating trends, you're better off looking at the trends in different polling companies separately.
Hm, if the EU decides to accept Scotland as a new member then it is highly likely that it could make it conditional on the following terms: Scotland becomes a member of the Eurozone, Scotland fully accepts the Schengen agreement and freely opens its doors to immigrants; Scotlands energy policy and resources becomes part of the EU's energy resource and policy, and its foreign policy and overseas representation are subsumed into the EU embassy and mission structure. At least that would save it some ministerial costs and tax collection.
outside our share of the UK embassies it makes sense to share.
What "share of UK embassies"?
Uk embassies belong to the UK.
You are voting to leave the UK.
You don't get a "share" of what you have opted to leave.....
You are oblivious to the fact that we own a share of the UK assets. If we are paying a share of your debts we will get a share of your assets , embassies included. I would prefer to have a clean break personally even though the asset share would be more financially beneficial for us.
You're not going to get a share of each individual asset.
What will happen is that there will be a totting up of the value of the assets owned by UK and that total value will be split between iScot and rUK. You would also take on a share of the UK's debt.
In practice, I'd imagine you will get 100% ownership of virtually all UK government assets in Scotland (I'm sure there will some exceptions, but who knows) and a proportionately lower share of assets outside the UK.
If I were iScot, I'd also look seriously at what Iceland does, which is to have a small annex/section of many Danish embassies to avoid the overhead costs of a completely separate facility. But that would be up to you.
Fixed assets would be divided according to location while non-fixed assets would likely be divided according to population (most likely) or income.
Surely every physical asset in Scotland (the castle included) would become Scottish. Every one in rUK would belong to rUK. Assets overseas (embassies included) would need to be split 92/8. This means that probably 5 buildings would become the property and sovereign territory of a new Scotland and rUK would need to buy 5 replacements. Or some sort of leasing arrangements / annexes could be agreed whereby neither Scotland or rUK need to buy buildings.
The important point for me would be this: Scotland would be independent and have its own foreign policy. Fairy nuff.
And don't forget that probably 100% of Scots (apart from the diehard 'fuckyouers' like malcolmg) would have dual Scottish/rUK nationality.
Mr. Eagles, Oborne may be startled and amazed to learn that, amongst the many wonders of Yorkshire, we have a fully functional road network.
I post this Peter Oborne article from 2008, so you can pass judgement on his, erm judgement
The brutal truth is that no member of the present Cabinet possesses even half the authority and gravitas which Gordon Brown still exudes. All his manifold difficulties, some of them of his own making, he has not been nearly as bad a Prime Minister as his increasingly hysterical critics assert.
I suspect ground operations and GOTV skills are going to be vital.
Many people are expecting that the turnout will be quite high. If most people vote then won't that reduce the importance of a get out the vote operation?
In a by-election when the turnout is about half and at a general election when the turnout is not quite two-thirds then the get out the vote operation will be a lot more important than in a referendum where the turnout could be greater than four-fifths.
I agree with this but there is still some uncertainty about how pollsters are dealing with certainty to vote filters. The referendum is likely to get many people voting who normally don't bother and quite a lot of these traditional non participants are likely to vote yes. It is one of the reasons I am suspicious of weighting by political party (many of these voters are normally NOTA). I still think this is going to be closer than much of the polling indicates.
And what's all this picking on people called David by the way? We are famous for our cool, rational reasonableness and I will sort out anyone suggesting otherwise.
My elder brother is called David (though oddly he chooses to go by the name "Dave"). He taught me the best card game I know and also introduced me to the most bewildering.
My use of the name David was intended as an honour, not an insult.
You're not going to get a share of each individual asset.
What will happen is that there will be a totting up of the value of the assets owned by UK and that total value will be split between iScot and rUK. You would also take on a share of the UK's debt.
In practice, I'd imagine you will get 100% ownership of virtually all UK government assets in Scotland (I'm sure there will some exceptions, but who knows) and a proportionately lower share of assets outside the UK.
If I were iScot, I'd also look seriously at what Iceland does, which is to have a small annex/section of many Danish embassies to avoid the overhead costs of a completely separate facility. But that would be up to you.
Charles, I don't believe I mentioned getting the actual buildings, and I am not quite as stupid as you seem to believe. However the deal could be a shared embassy or a monetary amount in place of it , that remains to be seen. As has been on public view for a long time , Scotland would have a smaller network of embassies than current UK and would share some with whoever else as other small countries do. Given they could use EU embassies as you say and save a lot of money , it is not an issue. Any EU citizen can get help from any EU embassy, so unless the UK pulled out we could continue to use the UK network. I fail to see anything silly that I posted.
Good luck with that, since an independent Scotland would have left the EU, and have to re-apply for membership.
As for the existing embassies, you're rather foolishly and naively assuming, a la Salmond and the £, that rUK will let you use them.
We will see who is foolish and naive when reality is in place. Strange utterance given anyone who likes can use the pound and we own 10% of all of them. Need to try harder.
Anyone know if there are any polls due today or whether i can close the UKPR swingometer window that is permanantly on standby for EICIPM purposes
Populus is due this morning.
Fantastic may have to post from Cineworld. That should make me popular lighting up the whole cinema every 5 mins to check the UKPR window is still fully operational.
Cineworld Sheffield? I'm a frequent visitor there, and will be there today.
I've actually written three PB threads from inside that cinema.
I do visit Sheffield about 75% of the time. I am a longstanding UGC/virgin customer, but will be making use of my unlimited card in Nottingham today on my way to see another Derbyshire T20 defeat at Northampton tonight.
Sheffields 6.7. and 8 screens are brilliant and have booked for next weeks secret screening do you know what it is yet? (hopefully Planet of The Apes and not Rolf Harris) Hopefully it will be in the IMAX.
BTW I dislike allocated seating more than I do Michael Gove
I've had my card since the Virgin days.
I'm hoping next weeks showing is Guardians of the Galaxy.
Allocated seating is a pain. What makes it worse is when you have to buy tickets from the food and drinks counter, and you're stuck behind some arse who doesn't know whether to order the nachos or the hot dogs, or asks to see what the sizes the various popcorns bags are.
LET ME BOOK MORE THAN ONE TICKET ONLINE YOU BELL ENDS
Still waiting for a poll to show Yes in the lead. Crossover is non-existent compared to Westminster polling where the result is genuinely up in the air.
Yep. All the shoutiest Yessers seem to have melted away over the last few months. It's almost as though they know they're going to lose!
so, Malc, are you at one with the guy on QT last night who agreed that there is no point in gaining independence from the UK if you are only going to give it up again to the EU and hence the logical position of the nats is both Yes and out of EU?
No completely different. I am for being in EU but not a big deal for me one way or the other.
And there we see the vanity, the idleness and the sheer crushing triviality of Natism in one sentence.
Cockroach has crawled out from under his rock I see.
Do we get to keep 90% of Edinburgh Castle after Scottish independence? Presumably we get 90% of the Scottish parliament too, as that was funded by UK taxpayers.
Unfortunately SO that would mean we get lumbered with 10% of London that we paid for.
The difference is that 90% is a controlling interest, 10% isn't.
Surely every physical asset in Scotland (the castle included) would become Scottish. Every one in rUK would belong to rUK. Assets overseas (embassies included) would need to be split 92/8. .
No they wouldn't.
They would belong to the UK that Scotland has chosen to leave - we didn't ask them to go - this is a voluntary departure - with all the consequences that entails.
Still waiting for a poll to show Yes in the lead. Crossover is non-existent compared to Westminster polling where the result is genuinely up in the air.
Yep. All the shoutiest Yessers seem to have melted away over the last few months. It's almost as though they know they're going to lose!
so, Malc, are you at one with the guy on QT last night who agreed that there is no point in gaining independence from the UK if you are only going to give it up again to the EU and hence the logical position of the nats is both Yes and out of EU?
No completely different. I am for being in EU but not a big deal for me one way or the other.
And there we see the vanity, the idleness and the sheer crushing triviality of Natism in one sentence.
Cockroach has crawled out from under his rock I see.
This is your "adult and intelligent debate" is it?
Hm, if the EU decides to accept Scotland as a new member then it is highly likely that it could make it conditional on the following terms: Scotland becomes a member of the Eurozone, Scotland fully accepts the Schengen agreement and freely opens its doors to immigrants; Scotlands energy policy and resources becomes part of the EU's energy resource and policy, and its foreign policy and overseas representation are subsumed into the EU embassy and mission structure. At least that would save it some ministerial costs and tax collection.
outside our share of the UK embassies it makes sense to share.
What "share of UK embassies"?
Uk embassies belong to the UK.
You are voting to leave the UK.
You don't get a "share" of what you have opted to leave.....
You are oblivious to the fact that we own a share of the UK assets. If we are paying a share of your debts we will get a share of your assets , embassies included. I would prefer to have a clean break personally even though the asset share would be more financially beneficial for us.
So rUK will get 92% of Edinburgh Castle?
You are obviously not interested in an intelligent adult debate. Please find someone else to bother, I presume you love cricket, write childish bollocks on that.
In your book "intelligent adult debate" means not challenging anything the SNP says and calling anyone who disagrees with you a Scot and Scotland hating trougher....What's "adult" or "intelligent" about that?
I am not negative about 100% of unionist statements, yet I am supposed to believe that the YES campaign ( note not SNP as you believe ) are 100% wrong because you say it.
Surely every physical asset in Scotland (the castle included) would become Scottish. Every one in rUK would belong to rUK. Assets overseas (embassies included) would need to be split 92/8. .
No they wouldn't.
They would belong to the UK that Scotland has chosen to leave - we didn't ask them to go - this is a voluntary departure - with all the consequences that entails.
Disagree and think this attitude would store up a world of resentment and grief. Yes they choose to go (or not as the case may be) - but still 8% of overseas assets and liquid assets like forex reserves would be theirs by right. 8% of all the embassies and forex the UK has is worth 3 parts of sod all anyway. Let it go.
And what's all this picking on people called David by the way? We are famous for our cool, rational reasonableness and I will sort out anyone suggesting otherwise.
Unless those picking on Davids are called Ed, in which case you will come off second best (but only because those called Len are standing beside Ed.....)
I guess James Watt, Robert Adam, Thomas Carlyle and the Encyclopedia Britannia are of no note either.....?
Alexander Fleming, Logie Baird, Robert Watson Watt, Thomas Telford, Lord Kelvin, James Maxwell...if you had to come up with a list of Scottish engineers / inventors and another lost of British ones, they would be largely the same list.
Unfortunately Scotland embraced socialism and continues to do so; it has been a failed region in consequence ever since.
Plenty of other poverty-stricken backwaters in UK have made the same mistake, but you don't get Tyneside demanding semi-independence at others' expense, and asserting that it's all because of England. That bit comes from racism dressed up as nationalism because Nat clots think this a cunning disguise for an ugly sentiment that nobody will ever see through.
There are of course some Britons who assert that Romanians are the cause of Britain's problems, in the same way people like malcolm assert that "England" is the cause of those of "Scotland" (whatever those mean). But thoughtful people see through them both and think the same of them.
Anyone know if there are any polls due today or whether i can close the UKPR swingometer window that is permanantly on standby for EICIPM purposes
Populus is due this morning.
Fantastic may have to post from Cineworld. That should make me popular lighting up the whole cinema every 5 mins to check the UKPR window is still fully operational.
Cineworld Sheffield? I'm a frequent visitor there, and will be there today.
I've actually written three PB threads from inside that cinema.
I do visit Sheffield about 75% of the time. I am a longstanding UGC/virgin customer, but will be making use of my unlimited card in Nottingham today on my way to see another Derbyshire T20 defeat at Northampton tonight.
Sheffields 6.7. and 8 screens are brilliant and have booked for next weeks secret screening do you know what it is yet? (hopefully Planet of The Apes and not Rolf Harris) Hopefully it will be in the IMAX.
BTW I dislike allocated seating more than I do Michael Gove
I've had my card since the Virgin days.
I'm hoping next weeks showing is Guardians of the Galaxy.
Allocated seating is a pain. What makes it worse is when you have to buy tickets from the food and drinks counter, and you're stuck behind some arse who doesn't know whether to order the nachos or the hot dogs, or asks to see what the sizes the various popcorns bags are.
LET ME BOOK MORE THAN ONE TICKET ONLINE YOU BELL ENDS
OMG this is frightening I agree with you !00% (male bonding alert) and don't get me started on the ever reducing size of the large Coke Zero.
The big question shows 47% Yes, 53% No again, the same as last month’s result. Having said that, last month Yes’s 47% was 46.6% rounded up, and this month it’s up to 47.1% rounded down, with No correspondingly down from 53.4% to 52.9%. That makes for an unchanged headline figure, but the No lead at one decimal place has fallen from by 1% from 6.8% to 5.8%. Confusing, but that’s rounding for you.
Do we get to keep 90% of Edinburgh Castle after Scottish independence? Presumably we get 90% of the Scottish parliament too, as that was funded by UK taxpayers.
Please, take it all.
The reality, of course, is that Scotland gets everything in Scotland. The rUK gets the rest - in the rUK and elsewhere.
LOL, you wish
No, I know.
Owning 90% of the British Embassy building in, say, Moscow is pretty much the same as owning it all. That's why the practicalities mean it will be as I say. The alternative is for the rUK to carry on owning 90% of all state assets in Scotland. I am sure we agree that would be ridiculous.
SO , I said there would be a deal, most likely a monetary one as we would not want to be stuck in a broom cupboard. We will have our own embassies where needed and share / use EU etc ones elsewhere as required. No need to waste the amount of cash UK does trying to project our clout.
Anyone know if there are any polls due today or whether i can close the UKPR swingometer window that is permanantly on standby for EICIPM purposes
Populus is due this morning.
Fantastic may have to post from Cineworld. That should make me popular lighting up the whole cinema every 5 mins to check the UKPR window is still fully operational.
Cineworld Sheffield? I'm a frequent visitor there, and will be there today.
I've actually written three PB threads from inside that cinema.
I do visit Sheffield about 75% of the time. I am a longstanding UGC/virgin customer, but will be making use of my unlimited card in Nottingham today on my way to see another Derbyshire T20 defeat at Northampton tonight.
Sheffields 6.7. and 8 screens are brilliant and have booked for next weeks secret screening do you know what it is yet? (hopefully Planet of The Apes and not Rolf Harris) Hopefully it will be in the IMAX.
BTW I dislike allocated seating more than I do Michael Gove
I've had my card since the Virgin days.
I'm hoping next weeks showing is Guardians of the Galaxy.
Allocated seating is a pain. What makes it worse is when you have to buy tickets from the food and drinks counter, and you're stuck behind some arse who doesn't know whether to order the nachos or the hot dogs, or asks to see what the sizes the various popcorns bags are.
LET ME BOOK MORE THAN ONE TICKET ONLINE YOU BELL ENDS
OMG this is frightening I agree with you !00% (male bonding alert) and don't get me started on the ever reducing size of the large Coke Zero.
Once you've been to a PB meet, you become friendlier with everyone you've met.
Wondering why the coalition parties are doing badly.
Given that elections are a competition between "more of the same" and "time for a change", is it time for the coalition parties to give themselves a refresh. Neither party seems to want to offer "more of the same".
Surely every physical asset in Scotland (the castle included) would become Scottish. Every one in rUK would belong to rUK. Assets overseas (embassies included) would need to be split 92/8. This means that probably 5 buildings would become the property and sovereign territory of a new Scotland and rUK would need to buy 5 replacements. Or some sort of leasing arrangements / annexes could be agreed whereby neither Scotland or rUK need to buy buildings.
The important point for me would be this: Scotland would be independent and have its own foreign policy. Fairy nuff.
And don't forget that probably 100% of Scots (apart from the diehard 'fuckyouers' like malcolmg) would have dual Scottish/rUK nationality.
Patrick, why would I not have dual nationality. You seem to be under some misapprehension about me and my thinking. Blind to reality , it is nothing to do with England or the English it is about Scotland running its own affairs. I too have family in England , an English son-in-law, etc like most people in Scotland. Only difference will be that it will be Scotland that decides what happens in Scotland and not some yahoos in Westminster. Also I will get most of my state pension from the UK having contributed for far too many years.
I hope to do some more canvassing myself on Saturday.
Anything to avoid watching the Test match?
I don't blame you.
You think they will still be playing most of Saturday? Let's see if England can avoid the follow on today. Their hearts were broken (again) by that last wicket partnership yesterday. Under current leadership this team has forgotten how to win.
It's a really weakness, we had Ashton Agar scoring 98 last year, Tino best 95 the season before, England do have a problem with number 11s.
In the last two years the two of the highest four scores by number 11's have been against England.
In the same period five of the highest fifteen last wicket partnerships have been scored against England.
Con : 295 Lab : 296 LD : 31 Lab largest party, but short of a majority by 31
That would be a laugh.
The laugh would be short-lived.
Presumably the main reason for the shift in the Fisher probability distributions (they are not predictions) is the fact that the UKPR polling average which he inputs to his model shifted quite a bit this week: 31%/36%/9%.
It will cross back the next time he does it, but it will then crossover again in a couple of months if the Lab/Con positions remain relatively stable as I think they will do.
I guess James Watt, Robert Adam, Thomas Carlyle and the Encyclopedia Britannia are of no note either.....?
Alexander Fleming, Logie Baird, Robert Watson Watt, Thomas Telford, Lord Kelvin, James Maxwell...if you had to come up with a list of Scottish engineers / inventors and another lost of British ones, they would be largely the same list.
Unfortunately Scotland embraced socialism and continues to do so; it has been a failed region in consequence ever since.
Plenty of other poverty-stricken backwaters in UK have made the same mistake, but you don't get Tyneside demanding semi-independence at others' expense, and asserting that it's all because of England. That bit comes from racism dressed up as nationalism because Nat clots think this a cunning disguise for an ugly sentiment that nobody will ever see through.
There are of course some Britons who assert that Romanians are the cause of Britain's problems, in the same way people like malcolm assert that "England" is the cause of those of "Scotland" (whatever those mean). But thoughtful people see through them both and think the same of them.
You are thicker than even you post it seems and a liar. I have never said "England" is the cause of Britain's problems, that is only in the tiny minds of racists like yourself. I clearly state Westminster. Unlike you I have never insulted anyone on here for being "English". Crawl back under your rock and leave humans to discuss the finer points of life.
You're not going to get a share of each individual asset.
What will happen is that there will be a totting up of the value of the assets owned by UK and that total value will be split between iScot and rUK. You would also take on a share of the UK's debt.
In practice, I'd imagine you will get 100% ownership of virtually all UK government assets in Scotland (I'm sure there will some exceptions, but who knows) and a proportionately lower share of assets outside the UK.
If I were iScot, I'd also look seriously at what Iceland does, which is to have a small annex/section of many Danish embassies to avoid the overhead costs of a completely separate facility. But that would be up to you.
Charles, I don't believe I mentioned getting the actual buildings, and I am not quite as stupid as you seem to believe. However the deal could be a shared embassy or a monetary amount in place of it , that remains to be seen. As has been on public view for a long time , Scotland would have a smaller network of embassies than current UK and would share some with whoever else as other small countries do. Given they could use EU embassies as you say and save a lot of money , it is not an issue. Any EU citizen can get help from any EU embassy, so unless the UK pulled out we could continue to use the UK network. I fail to see anything silly that I posted.
Good luck with that, since an independent Scotland would have left the EU, and have to re-apply for membership.
As for the existing embassies, you're rather foolishly and naively assuming, a la Salmond and the £, that rUK will let you use them.
We will see who is foolish and naive when reality is in place. Strange utterance given anyone who likes can use the pound and we own 10% of all of them. Need to try harder.
Desperate to be a minor part of the EU. Ever reliant on someone else for a currency, embassies etc etc
'Brave' Scotland doesn't have the balls to be truly independent, always hiding behind rUK's skirt.
All this means the warm glow of independence would be brief. The SNP is offering Scotland a vision of its economic future in which oil solves most ills, and innovative policy spurs rapid growth. In truth, with its twin budget and current-account deficits, the new nation would face much the same challenges as Britain, only more acutely. Add in a parlous demographic outlook and a nationalist party intent on over-spending, and Scotland’s economic prospects would be bleak.
One point to bear in mind is that Scotland would not suffer the type of exodus of high earners, in the wake of a Yes vote, that France has suffered under Hollande. This is, of course, because all the smart and hard-working people have already left Scotland anyway.
Nonetheless the points in that article are well made. In particular it's interesting to think about how an iScotland would care for its old. On the one hand fewer people will be working, but offsetting this is the fact that Scots' general state of health is so poor, compared to the first world, that they have about the same life expectancy as Chile.
This means that while old age pensions and care aren't going to be any cheaper, the Scotch taxpayer at least won't have to fund either for very long.
Still waiting for a poll to show Yes in the lead. Crossover is non-existent compared to Westminster polling where the result is genuinely up in the air.
Yep. All the shoutiest Yessers seem to have melted away over the last few months. It's almost as though they know they're going to lose!
so, Malc, are you at one with the guy on QT last night who agreed that there is no point in gaining independence from the UK if you are only going to give it up again to the EU and hence the logical position of the nats is both Yes and out of EU?
No completely different. I am for being in EU but not a big deal for me one way or the other.
And there we see the vanity, the idleness and the sheer crushing triviality of Natism in one sentence.
Cockroach has crawled out from under his rock I see.
This is your "adult and intelligent debate" is it?
Little point in trying to be adult when you are dealing with vermin
Surely every physical asset in Scotland (the castle included) would become Scottish. Every one in rUK would belong to rUK. Assets overseas (embassies included) would need to be split 92/8. .
No they wouldn't.
They would belong to the UK that Scotland has chosen to leave - we didn't ask them to go - this is a voluntary departure - with all the consequences that entails.
Disagree and think this attitude would store up a world of resentment and grief. Yes they choose to go (or not as the case may be) - but still 8% of overseas assets and liquid assets like forex reserves would be theirs by right. 8% of all the embassies and forex the UK has is worth 3 parts of sod all anyway. Let it go.
It's a matter of international law and precedent, whatever the SNP may make up as they go along. RUK giving Scotland stuff that doesn't by right belong to them would create precedent for all sorts of problems for other countries with separatists (eg Spain, France, Italy) which is why, despite Nat wishful thinking, it won't happen - the international grief would far outweigh any transient goodwill from Scotland.
Still waiting for a poll to show Yes in the lead. Crossover is non-existent compared to Westminster polling where the result is genuinely up in the air.
Yep. All the shoutiest Yessers seem to have melted away over the last few months. It's almost as though they know they're going to lose!
so, Malc, are you at one with the guy on QT last night who agreed that there is no point in gaining independence from the UK if you are only going to give it up again to the EU and hence the logical position of the nats is both Yes and out of EU?
No completely different. I am for being in EU but not a big deal for me one way or the other.
And there we see the vanity, the idleness and the sheer crushing triviality of Natism in one sentence.
Cockroach has crawled out from under his rock I see.
This is your "adult and intelligent debate" is it?
Little point in trying to be adult when you are dealing with vermin
Construction Output in May follows pattern of Industrial Output
ONS published their Construction Output figures for May this morning. The key points are as follows:
• This statistical bulletin provides users with the latest estimates of output in the construction industry for May 2014. Output is defined as the amount charged by construction companies to customers for value of work (produced during the reporting period) excluding VAT and payments to sub-contractors.
• In May 2014, output in the construction industry was estimated to have fallen by 1.1% compared with April 2014, after increasing by 1.2% in April. Both new work and repair & maintenance fell by 1.1% in May 2014.
• In all new work the largest contribution to the fall came from private commercial work and public other new work. New work public housing and private industrial work increased, but due to the relatively small size of these work types, the increases did little to offset the falls elsewhere.
• Compared with May 2013, output in the construction industry increased by 3.5%. All new work and repair & maintenance both increased by 3.7% and 3.1% respectively.
• There were notable year-on-year falls in infrastructure, public other new work and private commercial.
• Housing new work provided the largest contribution to the increase in all new work compared with May 2013, with both public and private housing seeing substantial increases of 29.3% and 16.8% respectively. This resulted in all new housing increasing by 19.4%. Private industrial new work also increased compared with 2013.
So a similar story to the Production (incl. Manufacturing) Output figures earlier this week: output down on a month on previous month comparison but (significantly) up on an annual basis.
We need to see the June figures to find out whether the May figures indicate a slow down in growth of the economy or just a statistical blip. The markets and analysts ignored the monthly fall in Production believing it to be a statistical blip but since then there have been other data which has followed the Production downturn both in the UK and Europe.
Noteworthy are the massive increases in residential construction though public sector housing is growing from a very small base.
You're not going to get a share of each individual asset.
What will happen is that there will be a totting up of the value of the assets owned by UK and that total value will be split between iScot and rUK. You would also take on a share of the UK's debt.
In practice, I'd imagine you will get 100% ownership of virtually all UK government assets in Scotland (I'm sure there will some exceptions, but who knows) and a proportionately lower share of assets outside the UK.
If I were iScot, I'd also look seriously at what Iceland does, which is to have a small annex/section of many Danish embassies to avoid the overhead costs of a completely separate facility. But that would be up to you.
If it were me doing it on behalf of rUK I'd also be looking at a per capita split of the UK's oil, so they'd get 8% or so of that.
Surely every physical asset in Scotland (the castle included) would become Scottish. Every one in rUK would belong to rUK. Assets overseas (embassies included) would need to be split 92/8. This means that probably 5 buildings would become the property and sovereign territory of a new Scotland and rUK would need to buy 5 replacements. Or some sort of leasing arrangements / annexes could be agreed whereby neither Scotland or rUK need to buy buildings.
The important point for me would be this: Scotland would be independent and have its own foreign policy. Fairy nuff.
And don't forget that probably 100% of Scots (apart from the diehard 'fuckyouers' like malcolmg) would have dual Scottish/rUK nationality.
Also I will get most of my state pension from the UK having contributed for far too many years.
Careful chief! You have not contributed to a paid-up state pension fund. Nobody has. That ain't how state pensions work. You have paid taxes - but not enough to cover current spending. The government of the day makes promises and pays for pensions out of current flows (and that means borrowing). The money for state pensions comes partly from today's taxes and partly from the gilt market. It's a 'pay as you go' system not a funded one. If Scotland separated the promises to Scottish OAPs would be met from Scotland's borrowing and to rUK OAPs from rUK borrowing. There is no 'pot' of cash in London waiting to pay any pensioners. There's a big negative pot - our national debt.
So...you would become a liability for the new Scottish state just as I would be a liability for the rUK state. If an independent Scotland couldn't meet its cashflow requirements it would borrow. Based on policy from SNP it would probably borrow alot. At some point it may go all Greece / Argentina. That's a risk Scottish voters must decide on.
Good luck with that, since an independent Scotland would have left the EU, and have to re-apply for membership.
As for the existing embassies, you're rather foolishly and naively assuming, a la Salmond and the £, that rUK will let you use them.
We will see who is foolish and naive when reality is in place. Strange utterance given anyone who likes can use the pound and we own 10% of all of them. Need to try harder.
Desperate to be a minor part of the EU. Ever reliant on someone else for a currency, embassies etc etc
'Brave' Scotland doesn't have the balls to be truly independent, always hiding behind rUK's skirt.
Laughable.
I am sure you and PG tips must share a bedsit. Is that the brave UK that is in the EU dummy, the one that just got the two fingers from 95% of the countries in the EU. How many braincells did you use to work that corker out you half wit.
All this means the warm glow of independence would be brief. The SNP is offering Scotland a vision of its economic future in which oil solves most ills, and innovative policy spurs rapid growth. In truth, with its twin budget and current-account deficits, the new nation would face much the same challenges as Britain, only more acutely. Add in a parlous demographic outlook and a nationalist party intent on over-spending, and Scotland’s economic prospects would be bleak.
One point to bear in mind is that Scotland would not suffer the type of exodus of high earners, in the wake of a Yes vote, that France has suffered under Hollande. This is, of course, because all the smart and hard-working people have already left Scotland anyway.
Nonetheless the points in that article are well made. In particular it's interesting to think about how an iScotland would care for its old. On the one hand fewer people will be working, but offsetting this is the fact that Scots' general state of health is so poor, compared to the first world, that they have about the same life expectancy as Chile.
This means that while old age pensions and care aren't going to be any cheaper, the Scotch taxpayer at least won't have to fund either for very long.
Thanks for explaining that vaunted union benefit we receive for funding the UK.
As Richard Nabavi said yesterday, the amount if YouGov polls compared to others makes that graph misleading
I've also realised there is a further very serious problem with it, specifically in the UKIP line.
The problem is that the 15-day moving average may be heavily affected by whether a given 15-day window happens to include polls by Survation and TNS BMRB, who release polls infrequently and whose UKIP figures are much bigger than YouGov's - for example, on 12 June TNS had 23% against YouGov's 12%. So what looks like a 'drop' in the UKIP moving average might simply reflect the TNS and Survation polls falling out of the figures used to make up the moving average.
This is the kind of reason why the experts don't recommend averaging polls.
Overall, the average lines should be treated with caution. Certainly for evaluating trends, you're better off looking at the trends in different polling companies separately.
Cheers
Is there a set of graphs with a line from each pollster? That would be the best graphic to see the trend for each party it seems
All this means the warm glow of independence would be brief. The SNP is offering Scotland a vision of its economic future in which oil solves most ills, and innovative policy spurs rapid growth. In truth, with its twin budget and current-account deficits, the new nation would face much the same challenges as Britain, only more acutely. Add in a parlous demographic outlook and a nationalist party intent on over-spending, and Scotland’s economic prospects would be bleak.
One point to bear in mind is that Scotland would not suffer the type of exodus of high earners, in the wake of a Yes vote, that France has suffered under Hollande. This is, of course, because all the smart and hard-working people have already left Scotland anyway.
Nonetheless the points in that article are well made. In particular it's interesting to think about how an iScotland would care for its old. On the one hand fewer people will be working, but offsetting this is the fact that Scots' general state of health is so poor, compared to the first world, that they have about the same life expectancy as Chile.
This means that while old age pensions and care aren't going to be any cheaper, the Scotch taxpayer at least won't have to fund either for very long.
Like every other political party in the UK promises vs reality will come to be very different entities.
Don't forget that ASalmond wants independence. Independence means that forever more Scotland will be its own country and not part of the UK. Trivial to repeat but sometimes lost in the fog of war.
There is no doubt that following independence, and assuming a physical location/population division of assets/liabilities, some kind of decline in tax revenue from NSO, a desire (presumably) to achieve the Maastricht-mandated 60% debt/GDP ratio, and likely sovereign spreads following independence, there will be some tough times ahead fiscally and all of ASalmond's promises will be seen for what they are: fanciful and borderline disingenuous.
But Scotland won't be the only country in the world to face fiscal consolidation and its concomitant effect on GDP growth. And, like other countries, it will learn to live within its means even if this is imposed upon it by the capital markets and it will, eventually I have no doubt, prosper with the tremendous amount of innovation and energy contained within its borders.
Looks like those 7% leads were just outliers/noise.
.
Same as the 1% ones the week before.
I think LAB lead has been 3 to 4% for months now
Yes average Labour lead appears to be about 3.5%. However, when you look at the unweighted data, Labour have a larger lead of about 5%.
As I have said before, Labour are doing much better in the marginals they need to win, as evidenced by local election results and Ashcroft marginal polling. Labour should do really well in Birmingham, London, Manchester and other major cities. I think it is possible that Labour could win with a small majority, winning most of the seats they won in 2005.
Good luck with that, since an independent Scotland would have left the EU, and have to re-apply for membership.
As for the existing embassies, you're rather foolishly and naively assuming, a la Salmond and the £, that rUK will let you use them.
We will see who is foolish and naive when reality is in place. Strange utterance given anyone who likes can use the pound and we own 10% of all of them. Need to try harder.
Desperate to be a minor part of the EU. Ever reliant on someone else for a currency, embassies etc etc
'Brave' Scotland doesn't have the balls to be truly independent, always hiding behind rUK's skirt.
Laughable.
I am sure you and PG tips must share a bedsit. Is that the brave UK that is in the EU dummy, the one that just got the two fingers from 95% of the countries in the EU. How many braincells did you use to work that corker out you half wit.
More 'intelligent' debate.
Still, I'm looking forward to the reasoned discussion regarding the sensible division of the UK's oil assets, on the basis of 8% to Scotland, 92% remaining rUK.
Construction Output in May follows pattern of Industrial Output
ONS published their Construction Output figures for May this morning. The key points are as follows:
• This statistical bulletin provides users with the latest estimates of output in the construction industry for May 2014. Output is defined as the amount charged by construction companies to customers for value of work (produced during the reporting period) excluding VAT and payments to sub-contractors.
• In May 2014, output in the construction industry was estimated to have fallen by 1.1% compared with April 2014, after increasing by 1.2% in April. Both new work and repair & maintenance fell by 1.1% in May 2014.
• In all new work the largest contribution to the fall came from private commercial work and public other new work. New work public housing and private industrial work increased, but due to the relatively small size of these work types, the increases did little to offset the falls elsewhere.
• Compared with May 2013, output in the construction industry increased by 3.5%. All new work and repair & maintenance both increased by 3.7% and 3.1% respectively.
• There were notable year-on-year falls in infrastructure, public other new work and private commercial.
• Housing new work provided the largest contribution to the increase in all new work compared with May 2013, with both public and private housing seeing substantial increases of 29.3% and 16.8% respectively. This resulted in all new housing increasing by 19.4%. Private industrial new work also increased compared with 2013.
So a similar story to the Production (incl. Manufacturing) Output figures earlier this week: output down on a month on previous month comparison but (significantly) up on an annual basis.
We need to see the June figures to find out whether the May figures indicate a slow down in growth of the economy or just a statistical blip. The markets and analysts ignored the monthly fall in Production believing it to be a statistical blip but since then there have been other data which has followed the Production downturn both in the UK and Europe.
Noteworthy are the massive increases in residential construction though public sector housing is growing from a very small base.
Looks like those 7% leads were just outliers/noise.
.
Same as the 1% ones the week before.
I think LAB lead has been 3 to 4% for months now
That cannot be right - have you forgotten the euro and local election results - the lead was barely 1.5% if i recall correctly.
Labour voters are piss poor at turning out for anything other than General Elections though. See the 2009 Euros as an example, 15.7% went out and voted Labour. For Labour to beat the Conservatives I thought was a pretty good result @ the last Euros (For Ed)
In anything other than General Election marginals, Labour turnout has been and ever was WOEFUL.
That's absolutely extraordinary - the CPS actually paying out damages? How often does that happen?
Working for the CPS does not exempt one from the law of defamation, thankfully. What is more disgraceful is the restrictions that the current government has placed on acquitted defendants recovering their costs from the Crown.
Brilliant quotes from luvvies slagging off essex as well... I'm happy to take it in the chin, but I reckon one day, not far away, it will be against the law to say such things
A lefty would say "replace the word essex with Africa and see how it sounds"
It will cross back the next time he does it, but it will then crossover again in a couple of months if the Lab/Con positions remain relatively stable as I think they will do.
Why is anyone taking seriously the forecasts of Prof Fisher ? It seemed to me that the forecasts only received any publicity, because at one time it was showing a different election outcome to most other forecasts. Now the forecast has moved to mirror what others have shown.
Is it just a case of what data had been included and that Prof Fisher is not offering a forecasting method that is that much different to any other ?
It will cross back the next time he does it, but it will then crossover again in a couple of months if the Lab/Con positions remain relatively stable as I think they will do.
Why is anyone taking seriously the forecasts of Prof Fisher ? It seemed to me that the forecasts only received any publicity, because at one time it was showing a different election outcome to most other forecasts. Now the forecast has moved to mirror what others have shown.
Is it just a case of what data had been included and that Prof Fisher is not offering a forecasting method that is that much different to any other ?
They are a useful tool to see their shifts. I think his final prognostications will be accurate. It is just his model though and will be useful to compare to the final outcome - as well as the other models from PBers.
Looks like those 7% leads were just outliers/noise.
.
Same as the 1% ones the week before.
I think LAB lead has been 3 to 4% for months now
Yes average Labour lead appears to be about 3.5%. However, when you look at the unweighted data, Labour have a larger lead of about 5%.
As I have said before, Labour are doing much better in the marginals they need to win, as evidenced by local election results and Ashcroft marginal polling. Labour should do really well in Birmingham, London, Manchester and other major cities. I think it is possible that Labour could win with a small majority, winning most of the seats they won in 2005.
Except that's not true in the Con held marginals.
UPDATE: Actually I’ve just spotted that the fieldwork in the Tory held seats was done earlier than the fieldwork in the Labour held seats. So comparing the swing in Con-Lab seats to the swing in national polls at the time the polls were done shows no difference at all (both show swing of 5.5%). Comparing the swing in Lab-Con seats to the swing in national polls at the time those polls were done shows Lab doing about 1.5 points better in seats they already hold.
The key metric is the PMIs - because they are quickly collected, have a very broad base, and have been much better at predicting quarterly and annual GDP than monthly swings in retail sales, industrial production, etc.
And they remain broadly positive. Here are the latest Markit Manufacturing PMIs, sorted from best to worst. Remember: 50 or above is economic growth. Below 50 is recession, shrinkage.
UK 57.5 USA 57.3 Ireland 55.3 Spain 54.6 Italy 52.6 Netherlands 52.3 Germany 52.0 Japan 51.5 India 51.5 China 50.7 Poland 50.3 Russia 49.1 Brazil 48.7 South Korea 48.4 France 48.2
You might well be, though as the Economist points out, you face tough challenges getting there.
You said Salmond had not promised Scots they would be better off.
He did.
Yes but as everyone knows it is not guaranteed, like with all politicians there are always ifs and buts. Also who knows how long either him or SNP would be in power. He thinks that we can make a better job of it than London do , it comes down to whether you think all is rosy in the garden or do you want the country to be run differently. I would like Scotland to be a better country , run by Scots with Scots deciding what we want and not with the current democratic deficit with everything at the whim of Westminster. rUK can go ahead and project their clout , fight illegal wars , have nuclear weapons, foodbanks , poverty etc I personally have a different vision of a fairer society. Despite being one of the "Haves" I do care about the "Have Nots" as well and do not see higher taxes as a disaster. I am not comfortable with the greed culture in UK, which may be just because I am not poor and unemployed etc but believe it is because I am a decent human being who would like to see a fairer society.
Looks like those 7% leads were just outliers/noise.
.
Same as the 1% ones the week before.
I think LAB lead has been 3 to 4% for months now
Yes average Labour lead appears to be about 3.5%. However, when you look at the unweighted data, Labour have a larger lead of about 5%.
As I have said before, Labour are doing much better in the marginals they need to win, as evidenced by local election results and Ashcroft marginal polling. Labour should do really well in Birmingham, London, Manchester and other major cities. I think it is possible that Labour could win with a small majority, winning most of the seats they won in 2005.
Except that's not true in the Con held marginals.
UPDATE: Actually I’ve just spotted that the fieldwork in the Tory held seats was done earlier than the fieldwork in the Labour held seats. So comparing the swing in Con-Lab seats to the swing in national polls at the time the polls were done shows no difference at all (both show swing of 5.5%). Comparing the swing in Lab-Con seats to the swing in national polls at the time those polls were done shows Lab doing about 1.5 points better in seats they already hold.
" Shows Lab doing about 1.5 points better in seats they already hold."
This is why my most recent General Election bets have been laying Conservative Majority...
And I've only ever backed Labour Majority when I've also backed NOM in order to get better odds laying CON majority.
3.9 is too short.
Edit again: Ashcroft has not gone nearly deep enough into Lib Dem or Conservative territory, what his polls do do is show the immense task of the Conservatives gaining Labour seats though.
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What you need to know.
Banco Espirito Santo (BES) is Portugal's second largest bank. It is 25% owned by the Espirito Santo Financial Group (ESFG).
Earlier this week, ESFG defaulted on some commercial paper in Luxembourg: that is, it failed to make scheduled interest payments to certain debt holders. This means that ESFG is 'in default'.
BES is owed just under €1.2bn by ESFG. While I don't know the details of ESFG's capital structure, and how senior the debt to BES is, it now looks extremely unlikely that BES will get all the money owed to it. (ESFG management is attempting to persuade people that the breach is minor, and the monies owed will soon be repaid. This looks unlikely.)
So: is BES bust because ESFG can't pay its debts?
Well, so long as BES is telling the truth, and its total exposure to ESFG is just €1.2bn, then no. BES had more than €2bn of 'excess capital' above and beyond the 8% requirement of Basle 2. So, even if the full €1.2bn to ESFG is lost, then BES would still probably have more than €1bn of excess liquidity, and would probably not even need a rights issue.
However.
It is possible BES's exposure to ESFG is much greater than is claimed. This can happen for legitimate reason (a market-maker owns some ESFG bonds, for example) or because there have been deliberate attempts to hide exposure.
If this is the case, then BES may be at risk. The nightmare scenario would be if exposure was much, much greater than claimed (say €5bn), and if ESFG was in very deep financial trouble itself. In which case, the Portugese government would almost certainly have to step in to guarantee BES, and this could lead to a cascade of problems at the bank leading to worsening government finances, leading to Portugal missing its fiscal targets, etc.
As an aside, it is not clear what has led to ESFG's problems. A cynic might suggest that the company's attempts to compete with Goldman Sachs, etc., via the Latin American focused Espirto Santo Investment Bank (which has a very nice London office just off Brick Lane) could be part of the problem.
Consider the difference between the proportion of the population who are called David and the proportion of the population who know someone in their family, as a friend or at work who is called David.
I really think Cook should have gone after Sri Lanka. He is still potentially a great batsman but he needs a serious break in county cricket to get his head back together and to work on his technique. If England persist with this head in the sand stuff they risk losing him for good. They may wait long enough to get one as good again.
He thinks that we can make a better job of it than London do , it comes down to whether you think all is rosy in the garden or do you want the country to be run differently. I would like Scotland to be a better country , run by Scots with Scots deciding what we want and not with the current democratic deficit with everything at the whim of Westminster. rUK can go ahead and project their clout , fight illegal wars , have nuclear weapons, foodbanks , poverty etc I personally have a different vision of a fairer society. Despite being one of the "Haves" I do care about the "Have Nots" as well and do not see higher taxes as a disaster. I am not comfortable with the greed culture in UK, which may be just because I am not poor and unemployed etc but believe it is because I am a decent human being who would like to see a fairer society.
As for the existing embassies, you're rather foolishly and naively assuming, a la Salmond and the £, that rUK will let you use them.
This suggests that UKIP are consolidating their support, but may struggle to do better than third in a general election.
It's also notable that this year it appears to be Labour who are recovering votes lost to UKIP, whereas last year it was the Conservatives.
I do feel very sorry for Nick Clegg, though. Coming out as an ardent Europhile - making a big fuss of being the "party of IN" - is precisely the sort of clear-talking and passionate debate that most people say they want from their politicians, and his reward appears to be to create another decline in the Lib Dem vote.
One fears that most other politicians will learn the lesson that obfuscation is better than clarity.
Owning 90% of the British Embassy building in, say, Moscow is pretty much the same as owning it all. That's why the practicalities mean it will be as I say. The alternative is for the rUK to carry on owning 90% of all state assets in Scotland. I am sure we agree that would be ridiculous.
And what's all this picking on people called David by the way? We are famous for our cool, rational reasonableness and I will sort out anyone suggesting otherwise.
The organisers claim 2.5 m watched Tour de France in Yorkshire, total population 5.3 m. Come off it.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100279542/were-not-as-crazy-about-cycling-as-the-tour-de-france-organisers-would-have-us-believe/
All hail Sir James Anderson
Sheffields 6.7. and 8 screens are brilliant and have booked for next weeks secret screening do you know what it is yet? (hopefully Planet of The Apes and not Rolf Harris) Hopefully it will be in the IMAX.
BTW I dislike allocated seating more than I do Michael Gove
http://www.westerndailypress.co.uk/Jacob-Rees-Mogg-MP-describes-Government-like/story-21447687-detail/story.html
http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0084/ge15forecast/
The problem is that the 15-day moving average may be heavily affected by whether a given 15-day window happens to include polls by Survation and TNS BMRB, who release polls infrequently and whose UKIP figures are much bigger than YouGov's - for example, on 12 June TNS had 23% against YouGov's 12%. So what looks like a 'drop' in the UKIP moving average might simply reflect the TNS and Survation polls falling out of the figures used to make up the moving average.
This is the kind of reason why the experts don't recommend averaging polls.
Overall, the average lines should be treated with caution. Certainly for evaluating trends, you're better off looking at the trends in different polling companies separately.
Every one in rUK would belong to rUK.
Assets overseas (embassies included) would need to be split 92/8. This means that probably 5 buildings would become the property and sovereign territory of a new Scotland and rUK would need to buy 5 replacements.
Or some sort of leasing arrangements / annexes could be agreed whereby neither Scotland or rUK need to buy buildings.
The important point for me would be this: Scotland would be independent and have its own foreign policy. Fairy nuff.
And don't forget that probably 100% of Scots (apart from the diehard 'fuckyouers' like malcolmg) would have dual Scottish/rUK nationality.
The brutal truth is that no member of the present Cabinet possesses even half the authority and gravitas which Gordon Brown still exudes. All his manifold difficulties, some of them of his own making, he has not been nearly as bad a Prime Minister as his increasingly hysterical critics assert.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1021847/PETER-OBORNE-Why-fit-Gordon-Browns-shoes.html
My use of the name David was intended as an honour, not an insult.
I'm hoping next weeks showing is Guardians of the Galaxy.
Allocated seating is a pain. What makes it worse is when you have to buy tickets from the food and drinks counter, and you're stuck behind some arse who doesn't know whether to order the nachos or the hot dogs, or asks to see what the sizes the various popcorns bags are.
LET ME BOOK MORE THAN ONE TICKET ONLINE YOU BELL ENDS
They would belong to the UK that Scotland has chosen to leave - we didn't ask them to go - this is a voluntary departure - with all the consequences that entails.
Aplos if this has been posted already.
Lord A looks at his methodology used.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/07/ashcroft-national-poll-story-far/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=ashcroft-national-poll-story-far&utm_source=Lord+Ashcroft+Polls&utm_campaign=9b040015ac-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b70c7aec0a-9b040015ac-71623245
Unionist Tories know Con leads are bad for Better Together, so we're responding tactically.
Expect the Tories to be back in the lead after the North Britain plebiscite.
His view of Gordon Brown was mad then, and it's mad now.
Con : 295
Lab : 296
LD : 31
Lab largest party, but short of a majority by 31
That would be a laugh.
Unfortunately Scotland embraced socialism and continues to do so; it has been a failed region in consequence ever since.
Plenty of other poverty-stricken backwaters in UK have made the same mistake, but you don't get Tyneside demanding semi-independence at others' expense, and asserting that it's all because of England. That bit comes from racism dressed up as nationalism because Nat clots think this a cunning disguise for an ugly sentiment that nobody will ever see through.
There are of course some Britons who assert that Romanians are the cause of Britain's problems, in the same way people like malcolm assert that "England" is the cause of those of "Scotland" (whatever those mean). But thoughtful people see through them both and think the same of them.
The big question shows 47% Yes, 53% No again, the same as last month’s result. Having said that, last month Yes’s 47% was 46.6% rounded up, and this month it’s up to 47.1% rounded down, with No correspondingly down from 53.4% to 52.9%. That makes for an unchanged headline figure, but the No lead at one decimal place has fallen from by 1% from 6.8% to 5.8%. Confusing, but that’s rounding for you.
http://www.betternation.org/2014/07/exclusive-july-holyrood-poll-by-survation/
That will change in September, when Ed reveals how Britain will look when he is ruining it.... sorry, running it.
Populus @PopulusPolls · 1m
New Populus VI: Lab 36 (-2); Cons 34 (+3); LD 8 (-1); UKIP 12 (-2); Oth 10 (+2) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140711
Looking forward to seeing what the Guardian/ICM shows next week.
Wondering why the coalition parties are doing badly.
Given that elections are a competition between "more of the same" and "time for a change", is it time for the coalition parties to give themselves a refresh. Neither party seems to want to offer "more of the same".
EICIPM Cineworld spared light polution.
See you all later
In the same period five of the highest fifteen last wicket partnerships have been scored against England.
It is a lamentable record.
Deep analysis: Labour lose 2% to the Greens, Tories pick up 3% from LibDems and UKIP.
Casual analysis: MOE.....meh.....
Presumably the main reason for the shift in the Fisher probability distributions (they are not predictions) is the fact that the UKPR polling average which he inputs to his model shifted quite a bit this week: 31%/36%/9%.
I think LAB lead has been 3 to 4% for months now
Crawl back under your rock and leave humans to discuss the finer points of life.
'Brave' Scotland doesn't have the balls to be truly independent, always hiding behind rUK's skirt.
Laughable.
Nonetheless the points in that article are well made. In particular it's interesting to think about how an iScotland would care for its old. On the one hand fewer people will be working, but offsetting this is the fact that Scots' general state of health is so poor, compared to the first world, that they have about the same life expectancy as Chile.
This means that while old age pensions and care aren't going to be any cheaper, the Scotch taxpayer at least won't have to fund either for very long.
ONS published their Construction Output figures for May this morning. The key points are as follows:
• This statistical bulletin provides users with the latest estimates of output in the construction industry for May 2014. Output is defined as the amount charged by construction companies to customers for value of work (produced during the reporting period) excluding VAT and payments to sub-contractors.
• In May 2014, output in the construction industry was estimated to have fallen by 1.1% compared with April 2014, after increasing by 1.2% in April. Both new work and repair & maintenance fell by 1.1% in May 2014.
• In all new work the largest contribution to the fall came from private commercial work and public other new work. New work public housing and private industrial work increased, but due to the relatively small size of these work types, the increases did little to offset the falls elsewhere.
• Compared with May 2013, output in the construction industry increased by 3.5%. All new work and repair & maintenance both increased by 3.7% and 3.1% respectively.
• There were notable year-on-year falls in infrastructure, public other new work and private commercial.
• Housing new work provided the largest contribution to the increase in all new work compared with May 2013, with both public and private housing seeing substantial increases of 29.3% and 16.8% respectively. This resulted in all new housing increasing by 19.4%. Private industrial new work also increased compared with 2013.
So a similar story to the Production (incl. Manufacturing) Output figures earlier this week: output down on a month on previous month comparison but (significantly) up on an annual basis.
We need to see the June figures to find out whether the May figures indicate a slow down in growth of the economy or just a statistical blip. The markets and analysts ignored the monthly fall in Production believing it to be a statistical blip but since then there have been other data which has followed the Production downturn both in the UK and Europe.
Noteworthy are the massive increases in residential construction though public sector housing is growing from a very small base.
But the polls are bouncing around like er, bouncy things - & silly season has just begun.
So...you would become a liability for the new Scottish state just as I would be a liability for the rUK state. If an independent Scotland couldn't meet its cashflow requirements it would borrow. Based on policy from SNP it would probably borrow alot. At some point it may go all Greece / Argentina. That's a risk Scottish voters must decide on.
UKIP 335 this one/333 last time
LD 105 -> 125
Con 413 -> 457
All fairly noise, sampling variation except the Conservative sample.
If that trend continues, Dave is getting in with an absolute majority of the votes... but I doubt it will be the case
The population is not swinging about as wildly as the polls sometimes suggest.
Shares, not leads ^_~
Why, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, are you charging me £1.50 for the privilege of guaranteeing you revenue and not cluttering up your reception. Seeeeeethe....
The uncertainty ranges are still large: +/- 7.7% on the Conservative vote share, but coming down gradually.
Interesting that he has the Lib Dems out-polling UKIP on his central projection, by 12.8% to 11.9%. I think I'd be surprised to see that result.
Is there a set of graphs with a line from each pollster? That would be the best graphic to see the trend for each party it seems
Don't forget that ASalmond wants independence. Independence means that forever more Scotland will be its own country and not part of the UK. Trivial to repeat but sometimes lost in the fog of war.
There is no doubt that following independence, and assuming a physical location/population division of assets/liabilities, some kind of decline in tax revenue from NSO, a desire (presumably) to achieve the Maastricht-mandated 60% debt/GDP ratio, and likely sovereign spreads following independence, there will be some tough times ahead fiscally and all of ASalmond's promises will be seen for what they are: fanciful and borderline disingenuous.
But Scotland won't be the only country in the world to face fiscal consolidation and its concomitant effect on GDP growth. And, like other countries, it will learn to live within its means even if this is imposed upon it by the capital markets and it will, eventually I have no doubt, prosper with the tremendous amount of innovation and energy contained within its borders.
*weeps*
As I have said before, Labour are doing much better in the marginals they need to win, as evidenced by local election results and Ashcroft marginal polling. Labour should do really well in Birmingham, London, Manchester and other major cities. I think it is possible that Labour could win with a small majority, winning most of the seats they won in 2005.
For those interested in Energy Forecasts to 2040, this report by Statoil is downloadable here;
http://www.statoil.com/no/NewsAndMedia/News/2014/Downloads/Energy Perspectives 2014.pdf
Still, I'm looking forward to the reasoned discussion regarding the sensible division of the UK's oil assets, on the basis of 8% to Scotland, 92% remaining rUK.
In anything other than General Election marginals, Labour turnout has been and ever was WOEFUL.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b048nqkm
Brilliant quotes from luvvies slagging off essex as well... I'm happy to take it in the chin, but I reckon one day, not far away, it will be against the law to say such things
A lefty would say "replace the word essex with Africa and see how it sounds"
Is it just a case of what data had been included and that Prof Fisher is not offering a forecasting method that is that much different to any other ?
More discussions on Energy & Environment:
http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Why-not-drill-more-geothermal-3676376.S.5883125668404826116
http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Oceans-PollutionUntil-we-Clean-Oceans-3676376.S.5868501686372298755
http://www.linkedin.com/groups/What-would-you-ask-Norwegian-3676376.S.5870489247454093316
UPDATE: Actually I’ve just spotted that the fieldwork in the Tory held seats was done earlier than the fieldwork in the Labour held seats. So comparing the swing in Con-Lab seats to the swing in national polls at the time the polls were done shows no difference at all (both show swing of 5.5%). Comparing the swing in Lab-Con seats to the swing in national polls at the time those polls were done shows Lab doing about 1.5 points better in seats they already hold.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8842
TBH, I think you over-analyse.
The key metric is the PMIs - because they are quickly collected, have a very broad base, and have been much better at predicting quarterly and annual GDP than monthly swings in retail sales, industrial production, etc.
And they remain broadly positive. Here are the latest Markit Manufacturing PMIs, sorted from best to worst. Remember: 50 or above is economic growth. Below 50 is recession, shrinkage.
This is why my most recent General Election bets have been laying Conservative Majority...
And I've only ever backed Labour Majority when I've also backed NOM in order to get better odds laying CON majority.
3.9 is too short.
Edit again: Ashcroft has not gone nearly deep enough into Lib Dem or Conservative territory, what his polls do do is show the immense task of the Conservatives gaining Labour seats though.