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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New IndyRef poll from Survation sees more Scottish people m
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New IndyRef poll from Survation sees more Scottish people making up their minds but overall picture staying the same
There’s been a flurry of betting activity on the IndyRef overnight with William Hill reporting a fair bit of money going on YES which has resulted in them tightening the price from 5/1 to 9/2.
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It's my understanding that the "Yes" camp has devoted massive resources to this, esp in the social housing estates of the central belt where voting turnout is traditional low.
Gut feel is "No" is still ahead, but what happens on the ground on the day will be key, still some value at 9/2. I'd give "Yes" a 30% probability at this stage.
Most of us are of the view that the result is all over bar the shouting and that the only real betting interest is in deciding the margin of the No victory, for example by betting on the percentage Yes vote. There are some tasty odds available should this be < 40%. DYOR.
Whilst the comment is - one assumes - tongue-in-cheek there is no better excuse for the Scots to vote 'Yes'. Let's face it: England is best rid of these people.
Anybody who has any significant proportion of their portable wealth left in a post-indy vote Scotland would be taking a huge risk with higher-rate taxes from this "squeeze the rich until the pips squeak" tendency. Given how canny the Scots are, I suspect it would be a great time to be a banker in Carlisle. Hundreds of thousands of new accounts opened by Christmas....
Quite how the new Scottish Govt. would cope without imposing draconian controls to prevent capital flight on a grand scale is interesting.
Hmmm, somewhat different interpretation elsewhere but what else would I expect from you. Beano is more your level.
The EC’s next President has endorsed the Scottish independence referendum and confirmed he will respect the result.
Jean-Claude Juncker, who will replace Jose Manuel Barroso as head of the European Commission, has told MEPs that he is "in favour of democratic expressions" and would respect Scotland's decision whatever the result.
The official said: "I am in favour of democratic expressions, but I'm not so arrogant to pre-empt the debate.
"I will respect the result of Scotland's referendum."
Mr Juncker was also asked about the situation in Spain. In what appeared to be a thinly disguised jibe at the man who he will be replacing as EC President, Mr Juncker said of Catalonia:
"I'm not arrogant enough, nor do I have the desire, nor the madness, to meddle in debates that affect the territorial organisation and politics of different EU states. It is a question that Spain will resolve."
Outgoing President Jose Manuel Barroso had angered some officials in Europe with his continual interventions into the Scottish and Catalonian constitutional debates.
Whilst the comment is - one assumes - tongue-in-cheek there is no better excuse for the Scots to vote 'Yes'. Let's face it: England is best rid of these people.
You show the union benefit Fluffy, all that love how could we possibly not want to be ruled by London.
But I think "rioting" is a bit of a misreading of the party mood in England if Scotland votes for independence....
Meanwhile, today’s poll gives us further confirmation of the intensity with which some voters are getting involved in the referendum campaign. No less than 21% say that they have fallen out with a family member, friend or work colleague over the referendum debate, a finding that closely replicates a result ICM reported last month. Yes voters (28%) are more likely than No voters (19%) to report such a falling out, seemingly a further indication that Yes supporters are more involved in the campaign than their No counterparts (either that or they have more likely to have disputatious friends!). At the same time, men and the under 45s are (stereotypically) more likely than women and the over 45s to report having fallen out with someone; hopefully they will be able to repair their broken relationships once the referendum is over.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/07/survation-repeats-its-record-high-for-yes/
If Scotland votes to leave the EU, he will respect the result.....
Analysts at UBS predict that an independent Scotland will be unlikely to have a currency union with the UK, meaning deposits would flow out of the country.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-ubs-warns-of-savings-shift-1-3473369
Yes Scotland chief executive Blair Jenkins said: "Where we can sensibly and practically retain mutually beneficial arrangements, such as maintaining single markets in electricity and gas, of course, this is the best be the way to proceed."
However, a DECC spokesman said: "In the event of independence the single market for electricity and gas just could not continue in its current form, with Scottish consumers losing out on shared investment in infrastructure, transmission, and renewables."
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/fresh-attack-on-yes-case-amid-new-oil-figures.24716054
Hopefully devo max can be brought in if the Scots fail to vote yes so the two radically different political cultures can no longer clash and Labour gerrymandering against the English ended.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Enlightenment
Union with England in 1707 meant the end of the Scottish Parliament and home rule. The parliamentarians, politicians, aristocrats, and placemen moved to London. Scottish law, however, was entirely separate from English law, so the civil law courts, lawyers and jurists remained behind in Edinburgh. The headquarters and leadership of the Presbyterian Church also remained, as did the universities and the medical establishment. The lawyers and the divines, together with the professors, intellectuals, medical men, scientists and architects formed a new middle-class elite that dominated urban Scotland and facilitated the Scottish Enlightenment.
0/10 must try harder....
so, Malc, are you at one with the guy on QT last night who agreed that there is no point in gaining independence from the UK if you are only going to give it up again to the EU and hence the logical position of the nats is both Yes and out of EU?
"You must think I came up the Clyde on a water-biscuit..."
Being just under 10% of UK we will never have policies to suit Scotland, London governments will always make policy to keep themselves in power and that means London and South East England. Common sense for anybody with more than two brain cells, Scotland can never ever prosper in a lopsided union like the UK unless there is so much money around that they don't know how to spend it. If the vote is no it will be a disaster for Scotland as it will give the green light to ignore Scotland even more.
In a blow to the Scottish independence campaign, the Government's independent fiscal watchdog said expected revenues from North Sea oil and gas would total £39.3bn between 2019-20 and 2040-41, down by almost a quarter compared with its projection of £51.9bn last year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10959241/North-Sea-oil-revenues-will-decline-more-sharply-says-OBR.html
After weeks of swearing, screaming and shouting at my computer as Internet Explorer crashed for the 800th time in the day - especially when coming to PB. Multiple rebooting, trying chrome and safari with their own foibles....
I have discovered the 'reset' button.
Calm, tranquility and peace has been restored to scrapheap towers. Today, I could even listen to a Jack Dromey interview without reaching for a 7-iron to smash at the screen.
Edit - what a way to hit 2k. Peace and love to all (EIC)
After the civil war parliament eagerly invaded Scotland to stop the King being imposed on us.
If Yes fails, it will be because Salmond has based his campaign on a retail offer of being "better off" and "nothing will change" which is a huge target for his opponents.
Great independence campaigns "Give me Liberty or give me death", "Quit India" aim for higher ideals.....
I am going to become a YES-supporting honorary Nat - Malc will you have me?
I think you need back-up: you're fighting on too many fronts and I'm prepared to step in to help.
OK - we don't care about the OBR's forecast about declining oil (tax) revenues because although that would represent 3.5% of an independent Scotland's GDP and therefore fiscal constraint would be required to balance the budget...WE WANT FREEDOM.
So we'll manage.
Next.
I guess James Watt, Robert Adam, Thomas Carlyle and the Encyclopedia Britannia are of no note either.....?
So I like the principle that governments should have fiscal limits to stop them wrecking the country, the issue for EU is that they fudged it at the start and lied about the real state of their countries instead of having a 2 or 3 tier currency plan.
The CU between Scotland and rUK will work just fine due to being so similar , assuming rUK gets its deficit in order. I expect any Scottish government to have a plan to get to financial stability ASAP, ie borrow less and start living within its means over a set period. Likely a pipe dream but worth a go. It can never be good to give someone else your money and have them decide how you live.
I say again it will be a disaster for Scotland if it is a NO vote.
According to Finance Secretary John Swinney, this extra spending would be funded by borrowing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28072175
Could be wickets today for India. Anyway Backing India £4, laying the draw £4 in the test.
Eng +6.89
India +73.81
Draw +0.09
That is my only concern , we have many people in Scotland, and people like Carla who are outside Scotland , who have been so brainwashed throughout their lives that they do not believe they are capable of doing anything without help from clever people in London. Hopefully enough people will have a positive outlook, will want a better country and will be enough to beat the naysayers and doom merchants. Majority of these Naysayers I have to say are only looking at self interest, they are all right and would rather keep other people down and out rather than try to share and build a better country. I can but live in hope that there are more positive tahn negative people in Scotland.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2688202/CPS-says-sorry-ex-MP-Michael-Mates-pays-substantial-damages-wrongly-accused-breaking-election-rules.html
All this means the warm glow of independence would be brief. The SNP is offering Scotland a vision of its economic future in which oil solves most ills, and innovative policy spurs rapid growth. In truth, with its twin budget and current-account deficits, the new nation would face much the same challenges as Britain, only more acutely. Add in a parlous demographic outlook and a nationalist party intent on over-spending, and Scotland’s economic prospects would be bleak.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21606869-independent-scotland-would-be-rich-country-terrible-prospects-costly-solitude
'Being just under 10% of UK we will never have policies to suit Scotland, London governments will always make policy to keep themselves in power ...'
That is just absurd. 'London' does nor govern us. A parliament of 650 governs us. That parliament has representatives from every region of the country that country being the UK and all regions in broad terms are equally represented - there is no particularly Scottish deficit.
In case you had missed it there is a devolved parliament in Edinburgh which governs a wide range of domestic matters - it spends money courtesy of the favourable Barnett Formula. Your grand idea is to hand over all your current non devolved powers and a few more to an ever closer union with the EU and (whichever way you look at it) control of your currency to an outside agency.
It is pretty pathetic to see you trying to base Scottish independence as such a panoply of misrepresentation.
Mr. Scrapheap, I'm glad your stress levels have decreased.
A 5pt gap is very small and eminently changeable. However, don't most polls show a more substantial difference?
It's sad, but unsurprising perhaps, that more than a fifth of Scots have fallen out with someone close to them over independence.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
I reply to you the way you post. Try being decent and you may find that people post back in same way.
*throws red meet into the den and stands well back*
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/28/salmond-independent-scotland-5bn-better-off
Who is telling lies?
You or Salmond?
Or both?
Back India.
Ireland would dearly love to join too, but it chose frictonless travel with the UK over frictionless travel with the rest of Europe.
Mrs Thatcher once said she dreamed of a day when she could jump on a train to Paris without needing a passport.
I dream similarly.
It is obvious to anyone that you need to borrow , not even a fool would question that, but the secret is having some good years to balance the books.
No matter how bad a Scottish Government was it could not do a worse job than the UK.
Uk embassies belong to the UK.
You are voting to leave the UK.
You don't get a "share" of what you have opted to leave.....
Your strange hatred of Alex Salmond makes you post rubbish. He will be long gone before the 15 years is up, who knows who will be in power but for sure they will be better than it being run by London for London.
I wonder how I would feel if I disagreed with family/friends about English or Yorkshire independence, before a referendum on the matter.
*throws coat at BJO*
I would prefer to have a clean break personally even though the asset share would be more financially beneficial for us.
Now you're just being silly.
You're not going to get a share of each individual asset.
What will happen is that there will be a totting up of the value of the assets owned by UK and that total value will be split between iScot and rUK. You would also take on a share of the UK's debt.
In practice, I'd imagine you will get 100% ownership of virtually all UK government assets in Scotland (I'm sure there will some exceptions, but who knows) and a proportionately lower share of assets outside the UK.
If I were iScot, I'd also look seriously at what Iceland does, which is to have a small annex/section of many Danish embassies to avoid the overhead costs of a completely separate facility. But that would be up to you.
Generally speaking the BT campaign is much better organised and active than it was a few months ago. Locally, I would say that Yes has dropped back a bit. It is some weeks now since I saw them in the City centre or received the sort of literature that was coming regularly in April to June.
I hope to do some more canvassing myself on Saturday. There is no question this campaign is dragging in thousands of people on both sides who are not normally politically active. The GE will be a damp squib by comparison and the turnout will reflect that.
That's democracy.
Edit - obviously I never offer them cake in case they think it's an entitlement on all future visits
You said Salmond had not promised Scots they would be better off.
He did.
I don't blame you.
Enjoy the test, but don't go around saying it's all over for England if India bowl a maiden
Just mention West Ham and the FA decision not to deduct them points, and it's a joy to behold to see them get wound up.
What a day this is turning out to be.
I suspect India will not enforce the follow on.
I suspect the next test match will be Cook's last test as Captain.
Whomever decided to play 5 tests in 42 days really does need a happy slapping.
The UK’s movable property in Scotland would become the property of the new Scottish State where it is specifically for local use
Other assets and liabilities would fall to be apportioned equitably. This may be calculated by such means as share of population or, possibly with regard to the national debt, for example, by share of GDP.
Historical contribution appears to be of no relevance: thus UK fixed property in Scotland would become the property of the new Scottish State even if its construction had been paid for UK taxpayers as a whole, and no compensation would be due to the rUK
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/01/28/the-hidden-costs-of-independence/
In a by-election when the turnout is about half and at a general election when the turnout is not quite two-thirds then the get out the vote operation will be a lot more important than in a referendum where the turnout could be greater than four-fifths.
Prior or Jimmy for the vpcaptaincy, let Cook remember how to bat with no pressure
I've actually written three PB threads from inside that cinema.