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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft has not unexpected gloomy news for the LDs in
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft has not unexpected gloomy news for the LDs in the battles with LAB
The figures are what you’d expect and the seats selected for the poll are the ones where Clegg’s party is likely to struggle most so the extrapolation from the four listed paints a very bad picture
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So who are the Pbers travelling to ISIS controlled Syria?
I'll get back to you.
Labour’s candidate for Angus in the 2015 general election has been forced to quit after tweeting a picture which seemed to compare Yes protesters to Nazis.
Kathy Wiles put the image of Hitler Youth on Twitter after a photograph was circulated of youngsters standing under the banner of pro-independence blog site Wings Over Scotland.
.... Ms Wiles made an online apology in response to outrage that accompanied her internet intervention, but has now resigned following high-level meetings within Scottish Labour two days after her outburst.
... A Scottish Labour spokesman said: “We believe that Kathy Wiles has taken the right decision to withdraw in Angus and we will move swiftly to get another candidate in place.
“The debate about Scotland’s future should be held in a respectful and positive way and we will take robust and immediate action if any of our members fall below these standards.”
http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/politics/angus-labour-candidate-resigns-after-hitler-youth-tweet-1.449806
Nadal is 2 sets to 1 down against 19 year old Aussie Nick Kyrgios.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/tennis/28105672
Plus they've been digging back into the lady's Twitter and Facebook files, etc., with interesting results over at Wings over Scotland (which also includes a letter from the bairns' mum; the event was the BBC bias demo in Glasgow at the weekend).
"OPPOSITION leaders yesterday demanded Alex Salmond apologise after he compared a BBC boss to a Nazi official.
The First Minister had lashed out after Beeb chief political adviser Ric Bailey barred him from appearing as a pundit before Saturday’s Calcutta Cup rugby match.
Salmond said Bailey behaved like a “Gauleiter” – a Nazi Party branch leader."
There can be no truck with this kind of inflammatory rhetoric.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1268389/Labour-candidate-performing-Nazi-salute-Cambridge-University-debate.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28113517
Will the ticking time bomb go off before the GE or not?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-28117542
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28113517
You have lost me there........I said it "could get messy for politicians of all stripes".
Where does a poll bounce come into it?
http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2014/07/01/01016-20140701ARTFIG00394-la-cedh-valide-l-interdiction-de-la-burqa.php
http://wingsoverscotland.com/pot-meet-kettle/
Edit: I had completely forgotten about that, but it's amazing what one can do if someone with a better memory can nudge it ...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/01/us-russia-censorship-idUSKBN0F64L920140701
Southwark & Bermondsey: we all know Simon Hughes has been around a long time, and has a big personal vote. But will he hang on in 2015 - certainly no other LibDem could hold that seat, but will he? My money is on 'yes', but if he does, it'll be by fewer than 2,000 votes.
Cambridge: Julian Huppert went to Trinity so I should feel naturally well disposed to him. That being said, I don't share OGH's faith that he'll hang on. I think this is a Labour gain, albeit with a below average Lib-Lab swing.
Hornsey & Wood Green: the wards in the seat are a real mix - 1 LibDem, 3 Labour, and 7 shared between the two parties. Lynne is an incredible campaigner, and her progress in the seat preceded local election success. Most of the Conservatives I know in Highgate will vote for her at the General, so I think she *might* hold on, but it'll be within 1,500 votes either way.
Ladbrokes - Next UK GE - Angus
SNP 1/10
Con 10/1
Lab 16/1
100 bar
The Wiles problem ought to lengthen that LAB price.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HAL_9000
You would like them protected then?
It's a view I suppose. Personally I think wrong doing like that should be investigated thoroughly, in much the same way you called on the BBC too over Saville et al.
Kyrgios V Ranoch and Federer V Wawrinka
Nick Clegg 7/4
Alex Salmond 9/4
Nigel Farage 4/1
David Cameron 5/1
Ed Miliband 6/1
As for dunces, one presumes you mean the great philosopher John Duns, O.F.M., commonly called Scotus or Duns Scotus (c. 1266 – 8 November 1308). As Wikipedia learnedly warns, he is not to be confused with Johannes Scotus Eriugena.
But dinner calls.
What has the GE got to do with this?
Take a dried frog pill and chill for a bit Harry.
It looks to me like basically a safe Labour seat which the LibDems have temporarily kidnapped, because of Barbara Roche (apologies for conjuring up the disagreeable recollection) and Iraq. The locals were pretty awful for the LibDems. Some of the LibDem vote has gone to the Greens and those voters might not vote Green at the GE - instead they are more likely to vote Labour.
It's a perfect combination of metropolitan luvvies and a good mix of ethnic groups likely to vote Labour now that the Iraq stain is being forgotten and the LibDems are tainted with reality.
Lynne may be an incredible campaigner but she's done the unforgivable: joined a government that is trying to sort out the mess.
There is some merit to this view in some seats however name recognition is extremely important in higher profile constituency polling and in the USA no Congressional poll worth a candle would operate without it.
I'd advise Lord A to use candidate names, where possible, in his next round of individual marginal seat polling.
Frankly any one of the four has a case for a place in the final.
As OGH has suggested, no real surprises in the Ashcroft polling. These are seats taken from Labour with that party enjoying one of its worst poll results since 1945. Places like Redcar, Norwich South and the like were always going to be desperately difficult to retain.
As others have suggested, Hornsey and Wood Green was not as cataclysmic as other parts of London for the LDs in May and indeed Lynne and her activists will fight tooth and nail to survive.
Labour smashed into Simon Hughes's constituency in May but as with Lynne it was by no means a clean sweep and the very core Wards survived so that provides a modicum of optimism that Simon can again defeat Labour.
It's also worth remembering the Conservatives gained seven seats in London in 2010. Seats like Brentford & Isleworth, Ealing North, Harrow East and even Croydon Central would all go Labour on the local election numbers though earlier gains such as Ilford North and Romford may be Conservative holds.
I will confidently predict a Labour hold in East Ham - haven't seen any odds from Shadsy but would imagine it would be 1/100 Labour and even that isn't a bad price.
http://www.sundaypost.com/news-views/politics/salmond-to-vie-for-top-job-in-2016-1.414719
At the west end of the constituency is Highgate - which is one of the richest parts of the country, with no shortage of £5m houses. Then there is a large chunk of gentrifying areas - Alexandra Palace feels very like Twickenham demographically, and Gospel Oak is also very much on the up-and-up. Of course, at the far eastern end of the constituency, it is Labour heartland. But the gentrifying bits are full of Conservative supporters who may vote tactically.
I'd take the other end of the 1-2 on Labour if you want.
Barnsley East LAB 1/100
Brent North LAB 1/100
Coventry North West LAB 1/100
Doncaster Central LAB 1/100
Hemsworth LAB 1/100
Hull West and Hessle LAB 1/100
Leeds Central LAB 1/100
Leeds East LAB 1/100
Leeds West LAB 1/100
Lewisham East LAB 1/100
Leyton and Wanstead LAB 1/100
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford LAB 1/100
Sheffield Heely LAB 1/100
Sheffield South East LAB 1/100
Warrington North LAB 1/100
Say it ain't so? Scourge of the political establishment Guido Fawkes reportedly a guest at the exclusive Tory donor ball. Kept that quiet.
What next? Smithson has Lib Dem sympathies shocker???
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/01/-sp-tory-summer-party-drew-super-rich-supporters-with-total-wealth-of-11bn
I don't personally think much can be done about donations, but I'd like to see much tighter spending limits, to limit the perceived need on all sides to attract donors of all kinds.
Your concern isn't about raising money, its about the Tories outdoing Labour.. terribly transparent too.
Did ED have a summer party to get his hands on the £11/12 million , or was it just beer and sandwiches?
Baxter: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk CON 61.9%
Shadsy: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk CON 11/10
Baxter: Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross SNP 45.7%
Shadsy: Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross SNP 6/1
Baxter: Edinburgh West CON 33.9%
Shadsy: Edinburgh West CON 16/1
Baxter: West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine CON 55.5%
Shadsy: West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine CON 6/4
So inherited wealth of Labour supporters is ok is it.. you did say TORY supporters. You are just jealous. If you had money left to you by your family, I doubt you would find it "nauseating". Your jealousy is sickening.
Restores my faith in (a certain percentage of) humanity.
"Rebels Of Oz: Germaine, Clive, Barry and Bob
Robert Hughes is dead, Clive James is dying, Barry Humphries is on his farewell tour with Dame Edna and Sir Les, and Germaine Greer is still upsetting the proverbial applecart. Now is the opportune moment to reflect on the titanic impact these four Australians made in the cultural milieu of London and New York. With this in his sights, author and unashamed Australia admirer Howard Jacobson, a Man Booker Prize winner who has met all four, sets out on a journey of discovery into how these pugnacious 'Wizards of Oz' left the backwater of Australia and became towering forces in the cultural epicentres of London and New York."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0486smr
Your point presumably is that standards are falling: Mandelson wouldn't have got out of bed for this sort of impoverished riffraff?
Good for Russia.
Perhaps if people had listened to Mary Whitehouse in the 1960s and 1970s instead of deriding her when she objected to the unbanning of such obscenities in the UK, which started with the passing of the 1959 obscene publications act introduced by the dreaded Roy Jenkins (and passed under a Tory government), several hundred children would not have been the victims of certain celebrities.
In light of that a seat where they have non Lib Dem competition such as Edinburgh West it is difficult to be optimistic. The SNP price in Caithness does look quite tasty but much will depend on what happens in September and how they react to it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broken_windows_theory
Like many of Obama's more deluded admirers, he's chosen to project an image of what he'd like Farage and UKIP to be. His chance of not being disappointed is very small.
Me and Ms Briskin are on USA - we've been trying to work out a word for a USAphile but can't work out one?? Serious question - we want to know what the correct term is. e.g Americanophile sounds like we like coffee.
Swearing is cathartic. Censorship isn't.
Is there a single seat on that list where you will be backing the Conservatives to win?
No.
But then I don't believe inherited wealth should be put at risk in the gambling markets.
Much better to use it to fund the Conservative Party's wine cellar.
How many of the 250 or so Labour seats do you envisage the Tories winning next May - 50, 100 perhaps ?
All depends how long the Labour party are prepared to tolerate Ed Miliband as leader.
His capacity to self-destruct and bring down his party's electoral chances is limitless.
Even Bootle isn't safe under his leadership.
Your thinking here mirrors a popular but lazy and ignorant view that there are only two models of healthcare in the world - the (crappy) NHS and (crappy) Obamacare.
In both cases there are plenty of other models out there to cherry-pick from. Except the grim horror of state-funding ... as dyedwoolie quite rightly also recoils from.
I have no objection to the west censoring racial obscenities, however for the west to denounce Russia for censoring sexual obscenities in the media when we prosecute and imprison people for uttering racial obscenities in the street or trams let alone in the media is hypocritical.
My money is on the latter.