Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.
Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!
YouGov always understate
YouGov, that was the most accurate pollster at the Euros?
Oh we can all play this game!
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
Understated UKIP by 0.2%
Oh right haha fair enough
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.
Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!
I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him
Minutes later, 18% with ComRes
Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?
I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
Happens almost every time and is tiresome. Ditto those who dissect any poll in which the Tories are within range to within an inch of its life who then disappear the following day when the poll returns to trend.
YouGov polled 1,206 Scottish adults between June 25-29 for the Indyref polling
Do you have a gender breakdown or at this stage are these just headline numbers ?
Worryingly for the Yes campaign, it is failing to make any inroads with female voters, despite concerted efforts by the Scottish government to appeal to women, with policies such as universal free childcare and gender quotas on boards. The split among women is 62-38 for the Union, exactly the same as in March.
YouGov polled 1,206 Scottish adults between June 25-29 for the Indyref polling
Do you have a gender breakdown or at this stage are these just headline numbers ?
Worryingly for the Yes campaign, it is failing to make any inroads with female voters, despite concerted efforts by the Scottish government to appeal to women, with policies such as universal free childcare and gender quotas on boards. The split among women is 62-38 for the Union, exactly the same as in March.
Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.
Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!
YouGov always understate
Oh we can all play this game!
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
Understated UKIP by 0.2%
Oh right haha fair enough
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
Pnd I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
e
The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)
UKIP just won a national election.
But not a FPTP election, I know the deluded Diane James thinks UKIP are on course to win 60 seats, but look at the Rallings and Thrasher predictions.
Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat, and as myself and others have pointed out, it's all about seats not share of the vote.
The thing that I believe you and Mike are missing when you say "Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat" is that none of the seats contested have been in favourable areas
Actually I believe that if they replicated the performances in a favourable seat, ie increase their vote share 600% as per Newark, they will win 3-4 seats, and that your approach to judging their performances, assuming it's not light hearted trolling, is misjudged
But it will play out before our eyes, should be interesting
3/4 seats would be a fine result for UKIP.
Yes
I strongly fancy Farage and Tim Aker to win S Thanet and Thurrock respectively
Any two from Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, S Bas and E Thurrock, Folkestone, Dover, Boston and. Skegness, Castle Point Dudley North or Cambourne and Redruth for the other two
YouGov polled 1,206 Scottish adults between June 25-29 for the Indyref polling
Do you have a gender breakdown or at this stage are these just headline numbers ?
Worryingly for the Yes campaign, it is failing to make any inroads with female voters, despite concerted efforts by the Scottish government to appeal to women, with policies such as universal free childcare and gender quotas on boards. The split among women is 62-38 for the Union, exactly the same as in March.
The Times also have done a piece on better together, about their wobble, and how they got things sorted, and how they see things panning out.
Nor do they [Better Together] seem worried at the regular reports that there is a bigger ground war campaign by those who want independence. Rob Murray, deputy director of operations (grassroots), said that the Yes camp is happy to talk to itself — filling halls with supporters — rather than attempting to convert the undecided voters.
Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.
Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!
YouGov always understate
Oh we can all play this game!
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
Understated UKIP by 0.2%
Oh right haha fair enough
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
Pnd I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
e
The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)
UKIP just won a national election.
But not a FPTP election, I know the deluded Diane James thinks UKIP are on course to win 60 seats, but look at the Rallings and Thrasher predictions.
Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat, and as myself and others have pointed out, it's all about seats not share of the vote.
The thing that I believe you and Mike are missing when you say "Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat" is that none of the seats contested have been in favourable areas
Actually I believe that if they replicated the performances in a favourable seat, ie increase their vote share 600% as per Newark, they will win 3-4 seats, and that your approach to judging their performances, assuming it's not light hearted trolling, is misjudged
But it will play out before our eyes, should be interesting
3/4 seats would be a fine result for UKIP.
Yes
I strongly fancy Farage and Tim Aker to win S Thanet and Thurrock respectively
Any two from Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, S Bas and E Thurrock, Folkestone, Dover, Boston and. Skegness, Castle Point Dudley North or Cambourne and Redruth for the other two
YouGov polled 1,206 Scottish adults between June 25-29 for the Indyref polling
Do you have a gender breakdown or at this stage are these just headline numbers ?
Worryingly for the Yes campaign, it is failing to make any inroads with female voters, despite concerted efforts by the Scottish government to appeal to women, with policies such as universal free childcare and gender quotas on boards. The split among women is 62-38 for the Union, exactly the same as in March.
Thank you.
Not necessarily. You might have a significant amount of churn that net equates to little movement.
That said I think we've been in this 60/40 range for some time and barring a hugely significant game changing event it's likely to edge further away from YES as differential turnout seeps into the final numbers.
Opposition parties generally do better in by-elections than they do at the general election.
So far, UKIP's best performance in a by-election was sub 30%
Not good enough to win a seat under FPTP, add in the Ashcroft polling which now shows the UKIP a distant third in Eastleigh.
None in favourable areas is all you need to remember
The NNESV trends tells you all you need to know.
You have your methods and I have mine
I contend it's all changed with 4 party politics and the old methods are past their sell by
I could be wrong, but so far all my betting positions are way, way ahead of the game
So I don't want to argue with you, the truth will out and one of us will be wrong
The other thing, UKIP's ground game isn't the best.
Look at Newark, we all know a by-election was in the offing for over a year, the Tories selected their candidate in 2013, UKIP selected Roger Helmer in May 2014.
You had Farage spouting off at the count the Tories had won by only 2,000, anyone who has ever been at a count, can usually guesstimate very well, Farage really did believe the UKIP hype.
Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.
Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!
YouGov always understate
Oh we can all play this game!
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
Understated UKIP by 0.2%
Oh right haha fair enough
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
Pnd I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
e
The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)
UKIP just won a national election.
.
as
Actually I believe that if they replicated the performances in a favourable seat, ie increase their vote share 600% as per Newark, they will win 3-4 seats, and that your approach to judging their performances, assuming it's not light hearted trolling, is misjudged
But it will play out before our eyes, should be interesting
3/4 seats would be a fine result for UKIP.
Yes
I strongly fancy Farage and Tim Aker to win S Thanet and Thurrock respectively
Any two from Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, S Bas and E Thurrock, Folkestone, Dover, Boston and. Skegness, Castle Point Dudley North or Cambourne and Redruth for the other two
I have Thurrock as a LAB gain
The Bookies have them odds on but I can't see the value in that
I live in the next door constituency, Thurrock is very much like the ward in Havering that ukip won, and they gave a ground game there, and past results are good ( 2x national polling)
YouGov polled 1,206 Scottish adults between June 25-29 for the Indyref polling
Do you have a gender breakdown or at this stage are these just headline numbers ?
Worryingly for the Yes campaign, it is failing to make any inroads with female voters, despite concerted efforts by the Scottish government to appeal to women, with policies such as universal free childcare and gender quotas on boards. The split among women is 62-38 for the Union, exactly the same as in March.
Thank you.
Not necessarily. You might have a significant amount of churn that net equates to little movement.
That said I think we've been in this 60/40 range for some time and barring a hugely significant game changing event it's likely to edge further away from YES as differential turnout seeps into the final numbers.
News from the eastern front: The EU-Russian ceasefire agreement is dead, Poroshenko has declared total war on the russian rebels, Putin might respond in a major speech to diplomats tommorow. Merkel and Hollande will not be amused by Poroshenko.
News from the southern front: Obama to send another 200 troops to Iraq. He seems to follow the Putin strategy of slow war (so people wont notice).
I would not be surprised if they got 2-3 of these, plus maybe one or two surprise others (not Eastleigh!).
However, I suspect Nigel Farage will not be an MP in 2015, as he (a) has been slow to choose a seat, and may look like a little bit of an import, and (b) is likely to suffer from tactical voting in a way Diane James (for example) would not.
Hmm I think Thurrock is UKIP's best chance tbh - even better than Thanet South, a 15% swing is alot easier to effect than a 23% one and crucially the anti-UKIP tactical vote in Thurrock is not at all obvious, could be a Labour gain - I wouldn't rule that out but it is a great chance for UKIP.
Opposition parties generally do better in by-elections than they do at the general election.
So far, UKIP's best performance in a by-election was sub 30%
Not good enough to win a seat under FPTP, add in the Ashcroft polling which now shows the UKIP a distant third in Eastleigh.
None in favourable areas is all you need to remember
The NNESV trends tells you all you need to know.
You have your methods and I have mine
I contend it's all changed with 4 party politics and the old methods are past their sell by
I could be wrong, but so far all my betting positions are way, way ahead of the game
So I don't want to argue with you, the truth will out and one of us will be wrong
The other thing, UKIP's ground game isn't the best.
Look at Newark, we all know a by-election was in the offing for over a year, the Tories selected their candidate in 2013, UKIP selected Roger Helmer in May 2014.
You had Farage spouting off at the count the Tories had won by only 2,000, anyone who has ever been at a count, can usually guesstimate very well, Farage really did believe the UKIP hype.
Eastleigh seemed pretty good, it seems like there's no competent national organization but if they've got good people on the ground they know how to let them run with it.
I would not be surprised if they got 2-3 of these, plus maybe one or two surprise others (not Eastleigh!).
However, I suspect Nigel Farage will not be an MP in 2015, as he (a) has been slow to choose a seat, and may look like a little bit of an import, and (b) is likely to suffer from tactical voting in a way Diane James (for example) would not.
I think he has chosen a seat but wont tell his enemies so that they wont pour all available resources against him until its too late. As for tactical voting, that needs a good campaign to minimize it so we wont know until the last week.
I would not be surprised if they got 2-3 of these, plus maybe one or two surprise others (not Eastleigh!).
However, I suspect Nigel Farage will not be an MP in 2015, as he (a) has been slow to choose a seat, and may look like a little bit of an import, and (b) is likely to suffer from tactical voting in a way Diane James (for example) would not.
Farage in Thurrock would have been a shoo in, but Thanet South is trickier I think...
For Thurrock as well as S.Thanet the barrier is 40%, if UKIP get close to that they win. But its more likely that the Tories will drop bellow 40% in S.Thanet than Labout remaining bellow 40% in Thurrock.
I would not be surprised if they got 2-3 of these, plus maybe one or two surprise others (not Eastleigh!).
However, I suspect Nigel Farage will not be an MP in 2015, as he (a) has been slow to choose a seat, and may look like a little bit of an import, and (b) is likely to suffer from tactical voting in a way Diane James (for example) would not.
Robert
There have been many indicators that College will choose to stand in one of the two Thanets. I have therefore been doing a little bit of research.
My conclusion is that punters should not assume it will be South rather than North.
Thanet South Conservative Association is due to select its PPC to replace Laura Sandys on July 4th. I suspect College and his local supporters (Alan Bown) are waiting to know who it will be before committing to one of the two constituencies. One thing is certain: Thanet South will not choose a Europhile candidate like Sandys.
The argument for College challenging Sir Roger Gale in TN (or his successor if Gale decides to stand down) is part emotional part rational.
The emotional reasons are that TN is College's constituency of birth and more firmly in Alan Bown's territory.
The rational reasons are there are less 2010 Lab-Lib Dem voters in TN (17,698) than in TS (21,361). TS was also enjoying a Labour revival in the locals before the Faragasm; Labour has chosen the youthful council leader behind that revival as its PPC; and the constituency had a Labour MP (Ladyman) from 1997-2010.
The risk to UKIP in TS is that Labour could come through the middle to win back the constituency, or, that, if the Con PPC is strong and establishes a lead, a significant proportion of the Lab-Lib Dem voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP.
This thinking no doubt lay behind Alan Bown's decision to sponsor Survation polling in Thanet South (et alia) earlier this year. The figures they will be poring over are the proportions of Tory to Labour/LD converts in the area.
I still think Thanet South is favourite but not by a large amount. Thanet North remains a real option. Ladbrokes have UKIP 6/4 favourite in Thanet South and 4/1 in Thanet North. On 25th May there was also a market on where Farage will stand with TS fav at evens and TN 2nd fav at 5/1 (see Shadsy's blog). The latter market looks as if it has been pulled, but the value in both bets may well lie (or have lain) North.
I would not be surprised if they got 2-3 of these, plus maybe one or two surprise others (not Eastleigh!).
However, I suspect Nigel Farage will not be an MP in 2015, as he (a) has been slow to choose a seat, and may look like a little bit of an import, and (b) is likely to suffer from tactical voting in a way Diane James (for example) would not.
Robert
There have been many indicators that College will choose to stand in one of the two Thanets. I have therefore been doing a little bit of research.
My conclusion is that punters should not assume it will be South rather than North.
Thanet South Conservative Association is due to select its PPC to replace Laura Sandys on July 4th. I suspect College and his local supporters (Alan Bown) are waiting to know who it will be before committing to one of the two constituencies. One thing is certain: Thanet South will not choose a Europhile candidate like Sandys.
The argument for College challenging Sir Roger Gale in TN (or his successor if Gale decides to stand down) is part emotional part rational.
The emotional reasons are that TN is College's constituency of birth and more firmly in Alan Bown's territory.
The rational reasons are there are less 2010 Lab-Lib Dem voters in TN (17,698) than in TS (21,361). TS was also enjoying a Labour revival in the locals before the Faragasm; Labour has chosen the youthful council leader behind that revival as its PPC; and the constituency had a Labour MP (Ladyman) from 1997-2010.
The risk to UKIP in TS is that Labour could come through the middle to win back the constituency, or, that, if the Con PPC is strong and establishes a lead, a significant proportion of the Lab-Lib Dem voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP.
This thinking no doubt lay behind Alan Bown's decision to sponsor Survation polling in Thanet South (et alia) earlier this year. The figures they will be poring over are the proportions of Tory to Labour/LD converts in the area.
I still think Thanet South is favourite but not by a large amount. Thanet North remains a real option. Ladbrokes have UKIP 6/4 favourite in Thanet South and 4/1 in Thanet North. On 25th May there was also a market on where Farage will stand with TS fav at evens and TN 2nd fav at 5/1 (see Shadsy's blog). The latter market looks as if it has been pulled, but the value in both bets may well lie (or have lain) North.
I've backed both
This college thing hasn't really caught on has it?
Like all Blairites, Rentoul is clueless on economics. He's essentially nit-picking.
Rentoul is not nit-picking. He is referring to a real debate going on between academic economists.
It may be worth putting Rentoul's comments in the context of George Osborne's April speech to the American Enterprise Institute:
I bring this same optimism to the second of today’s pessimistic predictions – that even if growth is sustained the benefits will accrue to the few not the many.
This prediction – that the link between living standards and economic growth has broken – also leads its proponents to the same prescription: more government spending on welfare and the costs of economic dependency.
But it too can be proved wrong if we follow a different approach.
To begin with it is not well supported by the facts.
As Greg Mankiw has pointed out for the US, on a superficial reading the data appears to show that real median incomes grew by only 3% over the entire period from 1979 to 2007. That sounds like there is a big problem.
But in fact once you take account of changes in household composition, lower taxes, healthcare benefits and other forms of remuneration then that number turns into a 37% real terms increase.
Of course that’s not to say that inequality doesn’t matter – it does.
The Great Recession made our countries poorer and times have been difficult for British and American families.
But in the UK the evidence shows that growth supports rising living standards.
Recent work by academics at the London School of Economics and our own analysis at the Treasury has found no evidence that employee compensation has become detached from GDP growth in recent decades.
Previous results that appear to show a break disappear once you take account of rising pension contributions and payroll taxes.
That is one reason why the labour share of national income in the UK has stayed constant over the last decade.
Nor does the evidence support the so-called “hollowing out” hypothesis in the UK – the idea that middle-skill and middle-income jobs are disappearing with most of the growth in employment either at the top or the bottom of the distribution.
While some traditional mid-level occupations have shrunk or moved down the income scale, new ones have been created to take their place.
So we have fewer middle-paid production line and secretarial jobs, but a lot more middle-paid jobs in IT and professional services.
Overall there has been little change in the proportion of people in middle-income jobs in recent years.
And after rising during the industrial restructuring of the 1980s, as it did in many countries, the level of inequality in the UK has been fairly constant for two decades, and according to the latest data is at its lowest level since 1986.
So the long term link between economic growth and living standards has not been broken.
When the economy shrinks people get poorer, and the only way to ensure people are better off is for the economy to grow.
I would not be surprised if they got 2-3 of these, plus maybe one or two surprise others (not Eastleigh!).
However, I suspect Nigel Farage will not be an MP in 2015, as he (a) has been slow to choose a seat, and may look like a little bit of an import, and (b) is likely to suffer from tactical voting in a way Diane James (for example) would not.
Robert
There have been many indicators that College will choose to stand in one of the two Thanets. I have therefore been doing a little bit of research.
My conclusion is that punters should not assume it will be South rather than North.
Thanet South Conservative Association is due to select its PPC to replace Laura Sandys on July 4th. I suspect College and his local supporters (Alan Bown) are waiting to know who it will be before committing to one of the two constituencies. One thing is certain: Thanet South will not choose a Europhile candidate like Sandys.
The argument for College challenging Sir Roger Gale in TN (or his successor if Gale decides to stand down) is part emotional part rational.
The emotional reasons are that TN is College's constituency of birth and more firmly in Alan Bown's territory.
The rational reasons are there are less 2010 Lab-Lib Dem voters in TN (17,698) than in TS (21,361). TS was also enjoying a Labour revival in the locals before the Faragasm; Labour has chosen the youthful council leader behind that revival as its PPC; and the constituency had a Labour MP (Ladyman) from 1997-2010.
The risk to UKIP in TS is that Labour could come through the middle to win back the constituency, or, that, if the Con PPC is strong and establishes a lead, a significant proportion of the Lab-Lib Dem voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP.
This thinking no doubt lay behind Alan Bown's decision to sponsor Survation polling in Thanet South (et alia) earlier this year. The figures they will be poring over are the proportions of Tory to Labour/LD converts in the area.
I still think Thanet South is favourite but not by a large amount. Thanet North remains a real option. Ladbrokes have UKIP 6/4 favourite in Thanet South and 4/1 in Thanet North. On 25th May there was also a market on where Farage will stand with TS fav at evens and TN 2nd fav at 5/1 (see Shadsy's blog). The latter market looks as if it has been pulled, but the value in both bets may well lie (or have lain) North.
I've backed both
This college thing hasn't really caught on has it?
I would not be surprised if they got 2-3 of these, plus maybe one or two surprise others (not Eastleigh!).
However, I suspect Nigel Farage will not be an MP in 2015, as he (a) has been slow to choose a seat, and may look like a little bit of an import, and (b) is likely to suffer from tactical voting in a way Diane James (for example) would not.
Robert
There have been many indicators that College will choose to stand in one of the two Thanets. I have therefore been doing a little bit of research.
My conclusion is that punters should not assume it will be South rather than North.
Thanet South Conservative Association is due to select its PPC to replace Laura Sandys on July 4th. I suspect College and his local supporters (Alan Bown) are waiting to know who it will be before committing to one of the two constituencies. One thing is certain: Thanet South will not choose a Europhile candidate like Sandys.
The argument for College challenging Sir Roger Gale in TN (or his successor if Gale decides to stand down) is part emotional part rational.
The emotional reasons are that TN is College's constituency of birth and more firmly in Alan Bown's territory.
The rational reasons are there are less 2010 Lab-Lib Dem voters in TN (17,698) than in TS (21,361). TS was also enjoying a Labour revival in the locals before the Faragasm; Labour has chosen the youthful council leader behind that revival as its PPC; and the constituency had a Labour MP (Ladyman) from 1997-2010.
The risk to UKIP in TS is that Labour could come through the middle to win back the constituency, or, that, if the Con PPC is strong and establishes a lead, a significant proportion of the Lab-Lib Dem voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP.
This thinking no doubt lay behind Alan Bown's decision to sponsor Survation polling in Thanet South (et alia) earlier this year. The figures they will be poring over are the proportions of Tory to Labour/LD converts in the area.
I still think Thanet South is favourite but not by a large amount. Thanet North remains a real option. Ladbrokes have UKIP 6/4 favourite in Thanet South and 4/1 in Thanet North. On 25th May there was also a market on where Farage will stand with TS fav at evens and TN 2nd fav at 5/1 (see Shadsy's blog). The latter market looks as if it has been pulled, but the value in both bets may well lie (or have lain) North.
I've backed both
This college thing hasn't really caught on has it?
News from the eastern front: The EU-Russian ceasefire agreement is dead, Poroshenko has declared total war on the russian rebels, Putin might respond in a major speech to diplomats tommorow. Merkel and Hollande will not be amused by Poroshenko.
News from the southern front: Obama to send another 200 troops to Iraq. He seems to follow the Putin strategy of slow war (so people wont notice).
WWIII steaming into view a few years after a banking collapse - same old same old.
Could he have been alluding to the prostitution earnings now added to the GDP? :-)
Interesting statistics. Care to show the world how he arrives at those figures?
In the long forgotten days of tim's obsessions, discussing Osborne's interest in professional services was unkindly treated by the moderators.
As to how he arrived at those figures, the internal Treasury work is probably unpublished, but Greg Mankiw has published (on the US economy) and maintains a blog. See: gregmankiw.blogspot.com/
Unsure of the LSE research. Possibly an old Ralph Miliband document?
FPT. Robert, why were you surprised at the large number of hits from multinationals like Goldman Sachs, McKinsey and Barclays? Thanks to the invaluable contributions of a small group of very informed posters, this site became an absolute must read when it came to the Banking crisis as it unfolded.
rcs1000 said: » "As technical administrator, I once did a quick and lazy dump of all the IP addresses of the people accessing PB.
The most common IP addresses were: the Houses of Parliament, the Conservative Party, News Corporation, and DMGT. Plus there were a surprisingly large number of hits from multinationals like Goldman Sachs, McKinsey and Barclays,
I kept meaning to match up usernames and IPs, particularly to work out who was posting from CCO, but never got around to it."
Considering the still largish UKIP vote waiting to be lanced, that is a very good position for the Conservatives with just 10 months to go. I caught the BBC 6pm News tonight, and Cameron couldn't have asked for better coverage of his appearance in the HoC's following the Juncker vote. Not only did the report highlight a united Tory party, but it showed some of the BOO crew lining up to praise him as well. And then we saw Ed Miliband criticising Cameron for standing up for the UK and losing, rather than agreeing and building bridges with our opponents in the EU.
And doesn't that just hit the nail on the head? As long as the NHS delivers on its Government promises, and remains free from the cradle to the grave, it matters little to the consumer who delivers it.
Two in three people (67 per cent) say that they do not mind if health services are provided by a private company or the NHS as long as they remain free of charge, while 30 per cent disagree.
If only Better Together had their very own Daniel Craig with a Glasga accent......And the buckfast was shaken not stirred. Twitter Michael McMahon @M_McMahon_MSP · Jun 28 @mik61scot@Bobbybungalow see if you can spot any of the Secret Service plants. They will be the ones in the tuxedos
Two in three people (67 per cent) say that they do not mind if health services are provided by a private company or the NHS as long as they remain free of charge, while 30 per cent disagree.
That's a very interesting result.
As a heartless Tory bastard it has always seemed to me that there is a difference between (a) who pays for the service (which is a political question) and (b) who provides the service (which should primarily be about value for money for a given level of quality).
Comments
Opposition parties generally do better in by-elections than they do at the general election.
So far, UKIP's best performance in a by-election was sub 30%
Not good enough to win a seat under FPTP, add in the Ashcroft polling which now shows the UKIP a distant third in Eastleigh.
Nor do they [Better Together] seem worried at the regular reports that there is a bigger ground war campaign by those who want independence. Rob Murray, deputy director of operations (grassroots), said that the Yes camp is happy to talk to itself — filling halls with supporters — rather than attempting to convert the undecided voters.
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
The fundamental things apply, as time goes by...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wo2Lof_5dy4
Play it once, Sam. For old times sake. Play it, Sam. Play "As time goes by". Sing it, Sam.
Algeria have been very good, though their final passes in the German penalty area have been poor.
That said I think we've been in this 60/40 range for some time and barring a hugely significant game changing event it's likely to edge further away from YES as differential turnout seeps into the final numbers.
Then keep swimming down that Egyptian river.
I contend it's all changed with 4 party politics and the old methods are past their sell by
I could be wrong, but so far all my betting positions are way, way ahead of the game
So I don't want to argue with you, the truth will out and one of us will be wrong
That's what explains the large No lead.
Look at Newark, we all know a by-election was in the offing for over a year, the Tories selected their candidate in 2013, UKIP selected Roger Helmer in May 2014.
You had Farage spouting off at the count the Tories had won by only 2,000, anyone who has ever been at a count, can usually guesstimate very well, Farage really did believe the UKIP hype.
Would anyone like to give me odds on SeanT actually delivering the wagered bottle of champagne at the Groucho in the (certain) event of a 'no' vote?
Germans demonstrate their mastery once more. Perhaps when we enter a USE team in the World cup we might get a share of the glory too.
We will see, I want ukip to do well and I am very happy with their progress. If you think they're on the slide your entitled to your opinion
The EU-Russian ceasefire agreement is dead, Poroshenko has declared total war on the russian rebels, Putin might respond in a major speech to diplomats tommorow.
Merkel and Hollande will not be amused by Poroshenko.
News from the southern front:
Obama to send another 200 troops to Iraq.
He seems to follow the Putin strategy of slow war (so people wont notice).
Castle Point
Boston
Thurrock
Thanet South
are all excellent shots.
I would not be surprised if they got 2-3 of these, plus maybe one or two surprise others (not Eastleigh!).
However, I suspect Nigel Farage will not be an MP in 2015, as he (a) has been slow to choose a seat, and may look like a little bit of an import, and (b) is likely to suffer from tactical voting in a way Diane James (for example) would not.
I draw this to your attention only because it's the other Ed.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ed-ballss-jedi-speech-reality-strikes-back-9573673.html
As for tactical voting, that needs a good campaign to minimize it so we wont know until the last week.
What have all six quarter finalists got in common?
It is difficult to sound convincing when asked to advocate claims you don't believe in.
But its more likely that the Tories will drop bellow 40% in S.Thanet than Labout remaining bellow 40% in Thurrock.
There have been many indicators that College will choose to stand in one of the two Thanets. I have therefore been doing a little bit of research.
My conclusion is that punters should not assume it will be South rather than North.
Thanet South Conservative Association is due to select its PPC to replace Laura Sandys on July 4th. I suspect College and his local supporters (Alan Bown) are waiting to know who it will be before committing to one of the two constituencies. One thing is certain: Thanet South will not choose a Europhile candidate like Sandys.
The argument for College challenging Sir Roger Gale in TN (or his successor if Gale decides to stand down) is part emotional part rational.
The emotional reasons are that TN is College's constituency of birth and more firmly in Alan Bown's territory.
The rational reasons are there are less 2010 Lab-Lib Dem voters in TN (17,698) than in TS (21,361). TS was also enjoying a Labour revival in the locals before the Faragasm; Labour has chosen the youthful council leader behind that revival as its PPC; and the constituency had a Labour MP (Ladyman) from 1997-2010.
The risk to UKIP in TS is that Labour could come through the middle to win back the constituency, or, that, if the Con PPC is strong and establishes a lead, a significant proportion of the Lab-Lib Dem voters will vote Tory to keep out UKIP.
This thinking no doubt lay behind Alan Bown's decision to sponsor Survation polling in Thanet South (et alia) earlier this year. The figures they will be poring over are the proportions of Tory to Labour/LD converts in the area.
I still think Thanet South is favourite but not by a large amount. Thanet North remains a real option. Ladbrokes have UKIP 6/4 favourite in Thanet South and 4/1 in Thanet North. On 25th May there was also a market on where Farage will stand with TS fav at evens and TN 2nd fav at 5/1 (see Shadsy's blog). The latter market looks as if it has been pulled, but the value in both bets may well lie (or have lain) North.
Hmm....
Predominant European male ancestry amongst the gene pools ^^; ?
This college thing hasn't really caught on has it?
It may be worth putting Rentoul's comments in the context of George Osborne's April speech to the American Enterprise Institute:
I bring this same optimism to the second of today’s pessimistic predictions – that even if growth is sustained the benefits will accrue to the few not the many.
This prediction – that the link between living standards and economic growth has broken – also leads its proponents to the same prescription: more government spending on welfare and the costs of economic dependency.
But it too can be proved wrong if we follow a different approach.
To begin with it is not well supported by the facts.
As Greg Mankiw has pointed out for the US, on a superficial reading the data appears to show that real median incomes grew by only 3% over the entire period from 1979 to 2007. That sounds like there is a big problem.
But in fact once you take account of changes in household composition, lower taxes, healthcare benefits and other forms of remuneration then that number turns into a 37% real terms increase.
Of course that’s not to say that inequality doesn’t matter – it does.
The Great Recession made our countries poorer and times have been difficult for British and American families.
But in the UK the evidence shows that growth supports rising living standards.
Recent work by academics at the London School of Economics and our own analysis at the Treasury has found no evidence that employee compensation has become detached from GDP growth in recent decades.
Previous results that appear to show a break disappear once you take account of rising pension contributions and payroll taxes.
That is one reason why the labour share of national income in the UK has stayed constant over the last decade.
[to be continued ...]
Osborne Speech continued
Nor does the evidence support the so-called “hollowing out” hypothesis in the UK – the idea that middle-skill and middle-income jobs are disappearing with most of the growth in employment either at the top or the bottom of the distribution.
While some traditional mid-level occupations have shrunk or moved down the income scale, new ones have been created to take their place.
So we have fewer middle-paid production line and secretarial jobs, but a lot more middle-paid jobs in IT and professional services.
Overall there has been little change in the proportion of people in middle-income jobs in recent years.
And after rising during the industrial restructuring of the 1980s, as it did in many countries, the level of inequality in the UK has been fairly constant for two decades, and according to the latest data is at its lowest level since 1986.
So the long term link between economic growth and living standards has not been broken.
When the economy shrinks people get poorer, and the only way to ensure people are better off is for the economy to grow.
But these things take time.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Bakr_al-Baghdadi
".... and professional services."
Could he have been alluding to the prostitution earnings now added to the GDP? :-)
Interesting statistics. Care to show the world how he arrives at those figures?
Might be the war to end all wars? no one will survive? :-)
As to how he arrived at those figures, the internal Treasury work is probably unpublished, but Greg Mankiw has published (on the US economy) and maintains a blog. See: gregmankiw.blogspot.com/
Unsure of the LSE research. Possibly an old Ralph Miliband document?
Take your pick.
I like hearing fiction at bedtime, reminds me of my childhood.
Goodnight.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-0Rb0zweS8
rcs1000 said: » "As technical administrator, I once did a quick and lazy dump of all the IP addresses of the people accessing PB.
The most common IP addresses were: the Houses of Parliament, the Conservative Party, News Corporation, and DMGT. Plus there were a surprisingly large number of hits from multinationals like Goldman Sachs, McKinsey and Barclays,
I kept meaning to match up usernames and IPs, particularly to work out who was posting from CCO, but never got around to it."
Hasn't much choice really.
Twitter
Michael McMahon @M_McMahon_MSP · Jun 28
@mik61scot @Bobbybungalow see if you can spot any of the Secret Service plants. They will be the ones in the tuxedos
As a heartless Tory bastard it has always seemed to me that there is a difference between (a) who pays for the service (which is a political question) and (b) who provides the service (which should primarily be about value for money for a given level of quality).
Is there any more detail / trend data, etc?
"Sailing slowly by, Vesuvius was a magnificent sight"
I read a thoughtful piece in the Spectator this week and then, to my shock, realised it was penned by PB's finest.