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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The ComRes phone poll for the Indy and YouGov complete the

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited June 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The ComRes phone poll for the Indy and YouGov complete the biggest polling day since GE2010

Today we’ve had four full national voting intention polls which I don’t think has happened since May 5th 2010. Just keeping up has been challenging and interpreting the data even harder.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    edited June 2014
    Yeah but the YouGov and ComRes have the Tories only 2 points behind with around 10 months to go.

    I'll take that.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    UKIP on 18% with a phone pollster.....
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    The polls are all over the place but any notion of Labour stretching away has clearly been debunked for now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    However, the poll found that Ed Miliband has only a narrow lead over David Cameron on health, traditionally one of Labour’s strongest issues. One in three people (33 per cent) trust Mr Miliband to protect the NHS, while 29 per cent trust Mr Cameron.

    Two in three people (67 per cent) say that they do not mind if health services are provided by a private company or the NHS as long as they remain free of charge, while 30 per cent disagree.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Comres data tables up

    http://comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_30th_June_2014_4523.pdf
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2014
    I note PB's very own Arjen Robben has taken an early first dive ....
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Today's 4 national polls:

    Ashcroft - Con lead 2
    YouGov - Lab lead 2
    ComRes - Lab lead 2
    Populus - Lab lead 4

    Average - Lab lead 1.5

    Good day for Con - especially when you add in the ComRes marginals poll as well.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    All those posters who were talking about Labour's widening lead.....
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UKIP on 18% with a phone pollster.....

    ICM had them on that a year ago

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    JackW said:

    I note PB's very own Arjen Robben has taken an early first dive ....

    I'm just quick.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Did you all see Glenn Hoddle call Algeria, Al Jazeera?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:



    Two in three people (67 per cent) say that they do not mind if health services are provided by a private company or the NHS as long as they remain free of charge, while 30 per cent disagree.

    This will not compute on planet left.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Labour is going down clearly from a shift to UKIP.
    I think changes are CON 0, LAB -3, UKIP +4, LD -1 from the last Comres phone poll
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UKIP on 18% with a phone pollster.....

    ICM had them on that a year ago

    True, it is line with ComRes' online poll as well
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UKIP on 18% with a phone pollster.....

    And 16% with ICM, makes the TNS Survation numbers look less absurd for UKIP.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Did you all see Glenn Hoddle call Algeria, Al Jazeera?

    That's not as bad as the "gaffe" that got him sacked
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    UKIP is up four points to 18 per cent, its highest in a ComRes telephone poll for The Independent; the Liberal Democrats are down one point to a record low of 7 per cent,
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.

    As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Did you all see Glenn Hoddle call Algeria, Al Jazeera?

    That's not as bad as the "gaffe" that got him sacked
    I thought he was harshly treated over that sacking.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Paging any PBreds.... the red herd has grazed elsewhere for some reason tonight...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Clip of Rolf on a Jimmy Saville show on BBC news tonight, perhaps best not to go backstage that night!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JackW said:

    I note PB's very own Arjen Robben has taken an early first dive ....

    I'm just quick.
    Less quick than outrageously premature.

    If you were Arjen Robben you'd be diving in the tunnel.

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Did you all see Glenn Hoddle call Algeria, Al Jazeera?

    That's not as bad as the "gaffe" that got him sacked
    I thought he was harshly treated over that sacking.
    Oh probably, but then it was Tony's fault.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Poor Peter Brookes, just think of the abuse he's going to get from MI5 agents posing as cybernats

    Peter Brookes ‏@BrookesTimes 12m

    My cartoon Tuesday @TheTimes: Mickey Moose Salmond declares a McCaliphate #ScottishIndependence #ISIS

    pic.twitter.com/VevgJRYz92
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited June 2014
    So the final Scores On The Board come out as:

    ComRes Marginals: Bad For Lab

    Populus: Good For Lab

    The Divine One: Tewrrrrrrrrible for Lab/Great For Con

    ComRes National Phone: Poor For Lab

    YouGov: Poor For Lab

    Overall a poor set of results for Lab.

    #MegaPollingMonday
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    YouGov has Labour at their usual level.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    JackW said:

    I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.

    As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.

    The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.
    By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UKIP on 18% with a phone pollster.....

    ICM had them on that a year ago

    No progress in a year.. its all over... BAD FOR UKIP!

    The thing is that all the wise monkeys were predicting UKIP would have fallen away by now
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate
    YouGov, that was the most accurate pollster at the Euros?
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Evening all, watching the Germans being very un-Germanic in this game. No clinical despatch of the Algerians.

    So the polls seem to confirm what I've been saying for ages, the 2 main parties are much and such and all the variation is froth/margin of error.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Interesting - you click between Populus and Ashcroft and you get 'crossover' in Technicolor.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Flightpath said:

    Interesting - you click between Populus and Ashcroft and you get 'crossover' in Technicolor.

    That's quite cool.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UKIP is up four points to 18 per cent, its highest in a ComRes telephone poll for The Independent; the Liberal Democrats are down one point to a record low of 7 per cent,

    I think we have got use to "record low for the LDs", well it can't go on for long, they can only fall another 7%.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate
    YouGov, that was the most accurate pollster at the Euros?
    Oh we can all play this game!

    "Euros are different to GE" etc etc


    I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?

    So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.

    As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.

    The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.
    By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
    This will not remain the case.

    I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.

    Of one thing we may be sure :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.

    Copyright JackW.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate
    YouGov, that was the most accurate pollster at the Euros?
    Oh we can all play this game!

    "Euros are different to GE" etc etc


    I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?

    So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
    Understated UKIP by 0.2%
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.

    As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.

    The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.
    By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
    This will not remain the case.

    I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.

    Of one thing we may be sure :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.

    Copyright JackW.

    I'll keep that for election night.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate
    YouGov, that was the most accurate pollster at the Euros?
    Oh we can all play this game!

    "Euros are different to GE" etc etc


    I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?

    So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
    Understated UKIP by 0.2%
    Oh right haha fair enough

    Maybe it really is all over for UKIP

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.

    As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.

    The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.
    By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
    This will not remain the case.

    I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.

    Of one thing we may be sure :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.

    Copyright JackW.

    I'll keep that for election night.
    I'd sincerely hope you use the information before election night and get a decent return on a few shillings.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Gem from ComRes poll.
    1/5th of those 1-4 in likelyhood to vote choose Labour by far the biggest from other parties.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    We're clearly heading for a hung parliament. Rod Crosby was right all along.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.

    As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.

    The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.
    By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
    This will not remain the case.

    I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.

    Of one thing we may be sure :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.

    Copyright JackW.

    I'll keep that for election night.
    I'd sincerely hope you use the information before election night and get a decent return on a few shillings.

    I'd do something about your Vanilla page if I were you
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    isam said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate
    YouGov, that was the most accurate pollster at the Euros?
    Oh we can all play this game!

    "Euros are different to GE" etc etc


    I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?

    So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
    Understated UKIP by 0.2%
    Oh right haha fair enough

    Maybe it really is all over for UKIP

    You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.

    Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I suspect that the over complacent attitude of some on the left on this site will gradually be eroded over the coming weeks. What fun it will be if the Tories pull out a 5pt lead and maintain it.. We can have Ed is crap threads right up to the GE!!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tonights COMRES LAB 329 CON 268 LD 23 Others 30

    Tonights YG LAB 334 CON 274 LD 16 Others 26 (both UKPR)

    Ed is crap is PM 10.25 months to go
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    bigjohnowls said:

    Tonights COMRES LAB 329 CON 268 LD 23 Others 30

    Tonights YG LAB 334 CON 274 LD 16 Others 26 (both UKPR)

    Ed is crap is PM 10.25 months to go

    as I said.. the over complacent....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    isam said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.

    As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.

    The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.
    By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
    This will not remain the case.

    I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.

    Of one thing we may be sure :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.

    Copyright JackW.

    I'll keep that for election night.
    I'd sincerely hope you use the information before election night and get a decent return on a few shillings.

    I'd do something about your Vanilla page if I were you
    I have nothing to hide except the humility of my ARSE.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,525
    Thanks for the kind words. At a time when Cameron is being praised by eurosceptics, it's not surprising to see UKIP down slightly, and the Conservatives closing the gap with Labour. Today's polls average Lab 34%, Con 33%, UKIP 14%.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    For the purposes of comparison, in June 2009, The Tories had a 16% lead with ComRes
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    A five point Tory lead is neither likely to happen or enough to gain seats for the Tories..

    Jack will dine on humble pie as Ed takes a taxi to Buckingham palace next May.
    SquareRoot said:

    I suspect that the over complacent attitude of some on the left on this site will gradually be eroded over the coming weeks. What fun it will be if the Tories pull out a 5pt lead and maintain it.. We can have Ed is crap threads right up to the GE!!

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate
    YouGov, that was the most accurate pollster at the Euros?
    Oh we can all play this game!

    "Euros are different to GE" etc etc


    I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?

    So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
    Understated UKIP by 0.2%
    Oh right haha fair enough

    Maybe it really is all over for UKIP

    You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.

    Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
    I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!

    I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him

    Minutes later, 18% with ComRes

    Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?

    I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    bigjohnowls said:

    Tonights COMRES LAB 329 CON 268 LD 23 Others 30

    Tonights YG LAB 334 CON 274 LD 16 Others 26 (both UKPR)

    Ed is crap is PM 10.25 months to go

    Sheffield, 1.4.1992: Neil is PM, 0.24 months to go.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.

    As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.

    The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.
    By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
    This will not remain the case.

    I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.

    Of one thing we may be sure :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.

    Copyright JackW.

    I'll keep that for election night.
    I'd sincerely hope you use the information before election night and get a decent return on a few shillings.

    I'd do something about your Vanilla page if I were you
    I have nothing to hide except the humility of my ARSE.

    Oh you've hidden it!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    The two phone polls are MoE from each other, and the two online polls are MoE from each other too.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    foxinsoxuk said:

    A five point Tory lead is neither likely to happen or enough to gain seats for the Tories..

    Jack will dine on humble pie as Ed takes a taxi to Buckingham palace next May.

    SquareRoot said:

    I suspect that the over complacent attitude of some on the left on this site will gradually be eroded over the coming weeks. What fun it will be if the Tories pull out a 5pt lead and maintain it.. We can have Ed is crap threads right up to the GE!!

    I fully expect Ed to take a taxi to Buckingham Palace next May as it's usual for the LotO to be invited to State Banquets ....



  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    edited June 2014
    Looks like the Times has a Scots Independence poll they are splashing on.

    EDIT - they do NO 54 YES 35
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate
    YouGov, that was the most accurate pollster at the Euros?
    Oh we can all play this game!

    "Euros are different to GE" etc etc


    I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?

    So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
    Understated UKIP by 0.2%
    Oh right haha fair enough

    Maybe it really is all over for UKIP

    You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.

    Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
    I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!

    I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him

    Minutes later, 18% with ComRes

    Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?

    I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
    The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Lets just hope that Her Majesty doesn't greet him with a plateful of bacon butties!
    JackW said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    A five point Tory lead is neither likely to happen or enough to gain seats for the Tories..

    Jack will dine on humble pie as Ed takes a taxi to Buckingham palace next May.

    SquareRoot said:

    I suspect that the over complacent attitude of some on the left on this site will gradually be eroded over the coming weeks. What fun it will be if the Tories pull out a 5pt lead and maintain it.. We can have Ed is crap threads right up to the GE!!

    I fully expect Ed to take a taxi to Buckingham Palace next May as it's usual for the LotO to be invited to State Banquets ....



  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014
    Interesting ComRes subsample territory:
    South West : UKIP 28, CON 26, LAB 19, LD 17
    W. Midlands: CON 33, UKIP 29, LAB 25, LD 5
    Wales: CON 38. LAB 30, UKIP 9, LD 0, PC 13

    England total: LAB 31, CON 31, UKIP 20, LD 8
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.

    As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.

    The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.
    By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
    This will not remain the case.

    I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.

    Of one thing we may be sure :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.

    Copyright JackW.

    I'll keep that for election night.
    I'd sincerely hope you use the information before election night and get a decent return on a few shillings.

    I'd do something about your Vanilla page if I were you
    I have nothing to hide except the humility of my ARSE.

    Oh you've hidden it!
    I have hidden nothing and am unsure where "it" would be hidden ?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate
    YouGov, that was the most accurate pollster at the Euros?
    Oh we can all play this game!

    "Euros are different to GE" etc etc


    I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?

    So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
    Understated UKIP by 0.2%
    Oh right haha fair enough

    Maybe it really is all over for UKIP

    You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.

    Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
    I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!

    I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him

    Minutes later, 18% with ComRes

    Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?

    I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
    The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)
    Do you really think that? The Kipper surge has been sustained for two years, while the Cleggasm was about a fortnight
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.

    As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.

    The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.
    By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
    This will not remain the case.

    I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.

    Of one thing we may be sure :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.

    Copyright JackW.

    I'll keep that for election night.
    I'd sincerely hope you use the information before election night and get a decent return on a few shillings.

    I'd do something about your Vanilla page if I were you
    I have nothing to hide except the humility of my ARSE.

    Oh you've hidden it!
    I have hidden nothing and am unsure where "it" would be hidden ?

    Oh!

    Your letter to the mods complaining about MIkeK was there for all to read earlier... its gone now, maybe the mods deleted for you
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate
    YouGov, that was the most accurate pollster at the Euros?
    Oh we can all play this game!

    "Euros are different to GE" etc etc


    I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?

    So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
    Understated UKIP by 0.2%
    Oh right haha fair enough

    Maybe it really is all over for UKIP

    You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.

    Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
    I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!

    I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him

    Minutes later, 18% with ComRes

    Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?

    I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
    The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)
    UKIP just won a national election.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Germany are having a shocker tonight.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Lets just hope that Her Majesty doesn't greet him with a plateful of bacon butties!

    JackW said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    A five point Tory lead is neither likely to happen or enough to gain seats for the Tories..

    Jack will dine on humble pie as Ed takes a taxi to Buckingham palace next May.

    SquareRoot said:

    I suspect that the over complacent attitude of some on the left on this site will gradually be eroded over the coming weeks. What fun it will be if the Tories pull out a 5pt lead and maintain it.. We can have Ed is crap threads right up to the GE!!

    I fully expect Ed to take a taxi to Buckingham Palace next May as it's usual for the LotO to be invited to State Banquets ....



    Chortle ....

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    YouGov poll for the Times on the Indyref

    Yes 35 (-1) No 54 (+1) DK 9, Would not vote 2%

    Changes since the YouGov poll for the Sun since Mid june
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited June 2014
    ToryJim Indeed, 'voters turn away from a Scottish nation state' says the Times headline tomorrow. Looks like a great night for Dave, Tories, and the Union!!

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/483726481101971456/photo/1
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ToryJim said:

    Looks like the Times has a Scots Independence poll they are splashing on.

    EDIT - they do NO 54 YES 35

    Those numbers are almost a match for the ComRes Scottish subsample today.

    Presently we seem to be settling in the 60/40 range. As Mark Senior is known to consider - NO is severely overcooked bread.



  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    HYUFD said:

    ToryJim Indeed, 'voters turn away from a Scottish nation state' says the Times headline tomorrow. Looks like a great night for Dave, Tories, and the Union!!

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/483726481101971456/photo/1

    Indeed, things do seem to be creeping in a positive direction on all counts.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    anotherDave said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate
    YouGov, that was the most accurate pollster at the Euros?
    Oh we can all play this game!

    "Euros are different to GE" etc etc


    I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?

    So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
    Understated UKIP by 0.2%
    Oh right haha fair enough

    Maybe it really is all over for UKIP

    You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.

    Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
    I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!

    I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him

    Minutes later, 18% with ComRes

    Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?

    I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
    The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)
    UKIP just won a national election.
    But not a FPTP election, I know the deluded Diane James thinks UKIP are on course to win 60 seats, but look at the Rallings and Thrasher predictions.

    Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat, and as myself and others have pointed out, it's all about seats not share of the vote.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    JackW said:

    ToryJim said:

    Looks like the Times has a Scots Independence poll they are splashing on.

    EDIT - they do NO 54 YES 35

    Those numbers are almost a match for the ComRes Scottish subsample today.

    Presently we seem to be settling in the 60/40 range. As Mark Senior is known to consider - NO is severely overcooked bread.

    Do you mean YES?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate
    YouGov, that was the most accurate pollster at the Euros?
    Oh we can all play this game!

    "Euros are different to GE" etc etc


    I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?

    So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
    Understated UKIP by 0.2%
    Oh right haha fair enough

    Maybe it really is all over for UKIP

    You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.

    Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
    I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!

    I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him

    Minutes later, 18% with ComRes

    Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?

    I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
    The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)
    There is a difference, that was a surge, this is a slow long term rise.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.

    As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.

    The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.
    By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
    This will not remain the case.

    I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.

    Of one thing we may be sure :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.

    Copyright JackW.

    I'll keep that for election night.
    I'd sincerely hope you use the information before election night and get a decent return on a few shillings.

    I'd do something about your Vanilla page if I were you
    I have nothing to hide except the humility of my ARSE.

    Oh you've hidden it!
    I have hidden nothing and am unsure where "it" would be hidden ?

    Oh!

    Your letter to the mods complaining about MIkeK was there for all to read earlier... its gone now, maybe the mods deleted for you
    As I didn't they must have.

    I don't routinely check "Vanilla" unless I'm prompted and I'm sure any MikeK related issue will be resolved in due course.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    What the Times have done is, is compare the latest YouGov with the last YouGov poll conducted for them, rather than the last YouGov poll.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate
    YouGov, that was the most accurate pollster at the Euros?
    Oh we can all play this game!

    "Euros are different to GE" etc etc


    I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?

    So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
    Understated UKIP by 0.2%
    Oh right haha fair enough

    Maybe it really is all over for UKIP

    You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.

    Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
    I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!

    I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him

    Minutes later, 18% with ComRes

    Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?

    I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
    The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)
    There is a difference, that was a surge, this is a slow long term rise.
    That sounds like a quote from College at the Maltese Conference.

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    @Plattinio: @ayestotheright Apparently from The Times? http://t.co/eygrdX1Wyz

    This is quite fun.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    D 1 - 0.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate
    YouGov, that was the most accurate pollster at the Euros?
    Oh we can all play this game!

    "Euros are different to GE" etc etc


    I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?

    So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
    Understated UKIP by 0.2%
    Oh right haha fair enough

    Maybe it really is all over for UKIP

    You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.

    Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
    I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!

    I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him

    Minutes later, 18% with ComRes

    Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?

    I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
    The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)
    There is a difference, that was a surge, this is a slow long term rise.
    Maybe, but I fully expect the number of UKIP gains from the Tories in 2015 will be less than the LD gains from the Tories in 2010.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    HYUFD said:

    ToryJim Indeed, 'voters turn away from a Scottish nation state' says the Times headline tomorrow. Looks like a great night for Dave, Tories, and the Union!!

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/483726481101971456/photo/1

    I miss Mick P0rk's "you are ringing the bells, but soon you will be wringing your hands" regular feature in response to Dave's EUgasms.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ToryJim said:

    JackW said:

    ToryJim said:

    Looks like the Times has a Scots Independence poll they are splashing on.

    EDIT - they do NO 54 YES 35

    Those numbers are almost a match for the ComRes Scottish subsample today.

    Presently we seem to be settling in the 60/40 range. As Mark Senior is known to consider - NO is severely overcooked bread.

    Do you mean YES?
    Indeed.

    Apologies to Mark Senior for putting the wrong slice of bread in the toaster.

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    HYUFD said:

    ToryJim Indeed, 'voters turn away from a Scottish nation state' says the Times headline tomorrow. Looks like a great night for Dave, Tories, and the Union!!

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/483726481101971456/photo/1

    I miss Mick P0rk's "you are ringing the bells, but soon you will be wringing your hands" regular feature in response to Dave's EUgasms.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the purposes of comparison, in June 2009, The Tories had a 16% lead with ComRes

    On 29/6/09 ComRes had CON 36 (-3) LAB 25 (+3) LD 19 (+1)
    Election result 2010 CON 36,9 LAB 29.7 LD 23.6 SWING BACK of 1.8% Tory to LAB

    IMHO PB Tories are expecting too much swingback for GE 2015
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    anotherDave said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate
    YouGov, that was the most accurate pollster at the Euros?
    Oh we can all play this game!

    "Euros are different to GE" etc etc


    I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?

    So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
    Understated UKIP by 0.2%
    Oh right haha fair enough

    Maybe it really is all over for UKIP

    You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.

    Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
    I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!

    I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him

    Minutes later, 18% with ComRes

    Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?

    I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
    The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)
    UKIP just won a national election.
    But not a FPTP election, I know the deluded Diane James thinks UKIP are on course to win 60 seats, but look at the Rallings and Thrasher predictions.

    Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat, and as myself and others have pointed out, it's all about seats not share of the vote.
    The average of the last 4 by elections since eastleigh are CON -11, LAB +1.5 , LD -15.5, UKIP +21.5, that gives UKIP 4 seats with electoral calculus.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    HYUFD said:

    ToryJim Indeed, 'voters turn away from a Scottish nation state' says the Times headline tomorrow. Looks like a great night for Dave, Tories, and the Union!!

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/483726481101971456/photo/1

    I miss Mick P0rk's "you are ringing the bells, but soon you will be wringing your hands" regular feature in response to Dave's EUgasms.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    16% or 11% you decide
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    YouGov polled 1,206 Scottish adults between June 25-29 for the Indyref polling

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    anotherDave said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate

    Oh we can all play this game!

    "Euros are different to GE" etc etc


    I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?

    So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
    Understated UKIP by 0.2%
    Oh right haha fair enough

    Maybe it really is all over for UKIP

    You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.

    Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%


    I did it tonight so I pulled him

    Minutes later, 18% with ComRes

    Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?

    I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
    The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)
    UKIP just won a national election.
    But not a FPTP election, I know the deluded Diane James thinks UKIP are on course to win 60 seats, but look at the Rallings and Thrasher predictions.

    Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat, and as myself and others have pointed out, it's all about seats not share of the vote.
    The thing that I believe you and Mike are missing when you say "Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat" is that none of the seats contested have been in favourable areas

    Actually I believe that if they replicated the performances in a favourable seat, ie increase their vote share 600% as per Newark, they will win 3-4 seats, and that your approach to judging their performances, assuming it's not light hearted trolling, is misjudged

    But it will play out before our eyes, should be interesting

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    h1ComRes has Labour just 11 points behind
    Monday, June 29th, 2009
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    anotherDave said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate



    So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
    Understated UKIP by 0.2%
    Oh right haha fair enough

    Maybe it really is all over for UKIP

    You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.

    Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
    I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!

    I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him

    Minutes later, 18% with ComRes

    Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?

    I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
    The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)
    UKIP just won a national election.
    But not a FPTP election, I know the deluded Diane James thinks UKIP are on course to win 60 seats, but look at the Rallings and Thrasher predictions.

    Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat, and as myself and others have pointed out, it's all about seats not share of the vote.
    The average of the last 4 by elections since eastleigh are CON -11, LAB +1.5 , LD -15.5, UKIP +21.5, that gives UKIP 4 seats with electoral calculus.
    Actually that is 7 seats not 4.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Do you think Scotland would be economically better off or worse off if it became an Independent Country,

    (Changes since March)

    Better off 27 (-3)
    Worse off 49 (+4)
    No difference 11 (+1)
    DK 13 (-3)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov polled 1,206 Scottish adults between June 25-29 for the Indyref polling

    Do you have a gender breakdown or at this stage are these just headline numbers ?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    IshmaelX Yes, all quiet on the Nat front tonight
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    ToryJim said:

    HYUFD said:

    ToryJim Indeed, 'voters turn away from a Scottish nation state' says the Times headline tomorrow. Looks like a great night for Dave, Tories, and the Union!!

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/483726481101971456/photo/1

    Indeed, things do seem to be creeping in a positive direction on all counts.
    The polling today seems a bit meh, to be honest. Ashcroft and Populus bouncing around as they normally do, both parties in their normal range with YouGov (Tories a big toppy).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Do you think you would be financially better off or worse off if it became an Independent Country,

    (Changes since March)

    Better off 17 (-2)
    Worse off 43 (+4)
    No Difference 23 (nc)
    Don't know 17 (-2)
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    The polling today seems a bit meh, to be honest. Ashcroft and Populus bouncing around as they normally do, both parties in their normal range with YouGov (Tories a bit toppy).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Algeria PLAY THE BALL EARLIER!!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov polled 1,206 Scottish adults between June 25-29 for the Indyref polling

    Do you have a gender breakdown or at this stage are these just headline numbers ?

    Worryingly for the Yes campaign, it is failing to make any inroads with female voters, despite concerted efforts by the Scottish government to appeal to women, with policies such as universal free childcare and gender quotas on boards. The split among women is 62-38 for the Union, exactly the same as in March.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,525
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    anotherDave said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.

    Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!

    YouGov always understate

    Oh we can all play this game!

    "Euros are different to GE" etc etc


    I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?

    So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
    Understated UKIP by 0.2%
    Oh right haha fair enough

    Maybe it really is all over for UKIP

    You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.

    Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%


    I did it tonight so I pulled him

    Minutes later, 18% with ComRes

    Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?

    I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
    The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)
    UKIP just won a national election.
    But not a FPTP election, I know the deluded Diane James thinks UKIP are on course to win 60 seats, but look at the Rallings and Thrasher predictions.

    Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat, and as myself and others have pointed out, it's all about seats not share of the vote.
    The thing that I believe you and Mike are missing when you say "Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat" is that none of the seats contested have been in favourable areas

    Actually I believe that if they replicated the performances in a favourable seat, ie increase their vote share 600% as per Newark, they will win 3-4 seats, and that your approach to judging their performances, assuming it's not light hearted trolling, is misjudged

    But it will play out before our eyes, should be interesting

    3/4 seats would be a fine result for UKIP.

This discussion has been closed.