Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The generational splits that are working brilliantly for Ni
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The generational splits that are working brilliantly for Nigel Farage
This has be said many times before but it is worth emphasising – how UKIP is most popular amongst the older age groups – the segment of the electorate that is much more likely to vote.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
The FPTP / electoral reform debate and referendum was wholly framed within the mindset of the UK beng a two party system with a small balancing player ( of the left) who wasn't getting it's fair share of MPs (and who went on and on endlessly about PR for that reason). Now the balancer is smashed (but still likely to get a few tens of MPs based on local strength) and a bigger vote puller will be utterly disenfranchised. The frame of reference is no longer valid.
The UK is a 4 party country now. With a clear majority of votes on the right / centre right.
A low turnout favours UKIP, a high turnout favours the others.
Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister. He is the Neil Kinnock of our times, losing the unlosable election...
The company said like-for-like sales grew by 4% in the year to April, although trading in southern Europe continued to perform badly.
It said it expected underlying profits before tax to be at the top end of market expectations of £75-85m.
Sales fell 8% in Italy, Greece and Turkey, where economic growth has been relatively weak.
Dixons also said trading at its online electric retail site, PIXmania, "continues to be very challenging".
Sales at the website were down 24% for the year.
In contrast, sales at UK and Ireland operations, which consist of Currys, Currys Digital, PC World and Dixons.co.uk, grew 7%.
Dixons.co.uk closed in October last year, though PC World and Currys continue to trade online, alongside PIXmania.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22550534
Our brigade had a three year pay freeze, then, last year, a one percent increase, swallowed up by increased pension contributions. So one percent over 4 years. Hardly fatcat territory.
If and when we do leave Europe, there will be alot of disappointed people, as they come to realise that actually, the EU was not the be all and end all of our woes.
Comradeocracy ?
Do UKIP policies come with a free Parker pen or a carriage clock?
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/the-eu-and-britain.html
If I'm not around when Richard Tyndall is next around, could someone let him know - he asked if I could set them down for him.
What is important, 2 years out from the election, is that the grumbly crumblies have gone to UKIP, not to Labour.
Labour has no answers. It has nothing to offer.
SO said not Patrick said!
Alot of centre right voters in Jockland see no point in voting Tory. I voted SNP when I lived in Edinburgh. Anything to keep the ScotLab monster away from the levers of power.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22551204
The EU and its members simply have to address its many obvious problems. tantrums in London won't help.
The alternative explanation could be that proportionally more lower paid (and front line?) public sector workers are losing their jobs while the public sector fatcats and middle managers keep their's secure.
Either way its the 'bosses' gaining at the expense of the 'workers' ie the same source of increasing inequality which we see happening generally.
But they just have changed their minds, haven't they? Or, at least, they have been telling pollsters that they've changed their minds, and voting in local elections in ways which are different to how they voted last time.
Whether they will have actually changed their minds (compared with 2010) when it comes to the general election in 2015 remains a big question.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10060570/Oxford-grooming-gang-We-will-regret-ignoring-Asian-thugs-who-target-white-girls.html
After creating the largest and longest recession in British history the media collectively gave Labour sod all scrutiny when it came to the economy, and swallowed the bland, meaningless line that Labour 'had a deficit reduction plan'. They didn't bother to ask what spending it involved cutting and what taxes it involved raising.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10060570/Oxford-grooming-gang-We-will-regret-ignoring-Asian-thugs-who-target-white-girls.html
"So, the defence against a rape charge by a young Muslim living in 21st-century Britain was not just ignorance of the law (which should be no defence at all). It was that the law and, indeed, the values of the wider country, were irrelevant in his Islamic school, even though it was a state institution funded by citizens who would go straight to jail if, for instance, they tried to have sex with a child.
The fact that the judge accepted Rashid’s defence shows what a god-awful mess this country has got itself into over multiculturalism. "
It's not just the BBC that refused to point out the racial elephant in the room over this. ITV news had sod all mention either. A problem can't be solved if it's not even acknowledged.
A little mid term angst will be a small price to pay for the tories to be able to say, legitimately, at the next election that the only possibility of their being a referendum is under a tory governement so if you want one - vote tory.
Job Done
Somehow I don't think Richard T will be persuaded!
Of course, as we have seen in Italy, it's by no means impossible that this nihilistic voting might continue into a major national election. Maybe it will, but I'm very sceptical; there are two years to go, which is plenty of time for people to get bored with UKIP, and the FPTP system is designed to encourage voters to actually make a genuine choice. We shall see.
Most of them will either remember WW2, lost parents or relations in it or recall the post WW2 rationing (so that Germany could be fed) which lasted til the early 1950s.
These were times when political correctness was unknown and you could says what you thought with no risk of a criminal record.
They also look at the nigh unrestricted immigration of the 1960s from the Caribbean and Indian subcontinent and its effects on the UK of today. Also they look at the immigration surge under Tony Blair.
They look at the EU (& the ECHR) and see a seemingly non-elected bureaucracy forcing legislation and practices on the UK.
These grievances have been held and growing for years and now they see that UKIP is gaining critical mass and have jumped on board - to give the other 3 parties a thorough kicking. Other details can wait for 2015.
Just one in 10 of 18- to 24-year-olds say they are certain to vote, down from three in 10 two years ago. Only 41 per cent of adults say they are guaranteed to vote in the next general election, compared to 48 per cent last year. And 20 per cent of voters are certain not to vote, twice as many as two years ago."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/10059243/Have-MPs-learnt-a-thing-since-2009-Their-greed-suggests-not.html
Sure the EU could be better. Couldn't we all. Most of the issues AF raised are not new and apply not only to the EU. The interesting question is why this is being turned into a specific EU crisis now.
1) The obvious one of the Eurozone crisis
2) The less obvious one that the loss of sovereignty and giving up of vetoes in Lisbon are beginning to bite.
...because EU policy is destroying some of its member states. The tragedy unfolding in Spain is not an external / unavoidable thing - it is a deliberate and intended thing from Brussels.
Good AEP article today in Telegraph on this.
Yes,all the predictable excuses.
'We all know what happens next, don’t we? Leaders of the Pakistani Muslim community – essentially a Victorian society that has landed like Doctor Who’s Tardis on a liberal, permissive planet it despises – are at pains to deny that the grooming gang’s behaviour has anything to do with ethnic origin or contemptible attitudes towards women.
Then Sue Berelowitz, the lamentably foolish deputy children’s commissioner, trots out her lame line that Asian men targeting white girls is “just one of a number of models”, even though such “models” account for an improbably large proportion of all gang sexual abuse.
Did Berelowitz not hear Nazir Afzal, Chief Crown Prosecutor for North West England, when he blamed “imported cultural baggage” for appalling crimes by members of his own community? “The men think that women are some lesser being,” he said.'
Don't buy it.
(1) The coalition have been telling us ( when it suits them) that UK is/was/could be in as great a crisis as the Eurozone. Disasters and downgrades lurk behind every corner.
(2) biting who, where exactly?
Wales is a leftish country which will end up with a centre-left MP split
Scotland hates the tories. The Lib Dems are now considered the 'yellow tories' up there so they'll end up with a Scot nat/Lab split of MPs. Danny Alexander who had a huge majority will lose his seat.
Labour, Major post-1992, stricken by Europe, sleaze, and on the way out;
Tories, Major pre-1992, faced with a Labour leader for whom there is little enthusiasm, on his way to an unexpected, if small, victory in the polls.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/10059107/MoD-launches-appeal-to-find-two-men-pictured-carrying-unexploded-bombs.html
My profile picture shows a small shell I found lying on the ground on Margery Hill in the Peak District (actually he highest point in Sheffield), a few years ago.
Left over from when the area was used as a range in WW2.
"Now we are seeing the growth of positive forces acting against integration, of vested interests in the preservation and sharpening of racial and religious differences, with a view to the exercise of actual domination, first over fellow-immigrants and then over the rest of the population...
Here is the means of showing that the immigrant communities can organise to consolidate their members, to agitate and campaign against their fellow citizens, and to overawe and dominate the rest with the legal weapons which the ignorant and the ill-informed have provided...
Only resolute and urgent action will avert it even now. Whether there will be the public will to demand and obtain that action, I do not know. All I know is that to see, and not to speak, would be the great betrayal."
Its accounts are unaudited and have been for over a decade, its leaders are unelected, it has no mandate, it spends and increases spending when every single member state is forced to face harsh economic realities, it ignores referendum results when it actually bothers to ask the people what they think, the eurozone is crammed with incompatible economies etc etc etc.
The EU 'could be better' in the same way Cannae 'could've gone better' for the Romans.
It must be awful to be a conscientious, law-abiding Muslim, possibly of Pakistani heritage, who would not dream of doing such things and see people like this drag the name of their community into the sewer.
At my local UKIP branch meeting of activists on Monday night. Only one, me, was old enough to remember WW2, another two remembered the 1950's quite well and those remembering the 1960's, 5 in number. The other 9 present were all younger than that and represented all ages to the late 20's.
So I think that PBers and others, including tim and OGH, should stop making assumptions based on hurriedly put together polls. UKIP support is a many aged (Splendoured) thing.
Good article without the usual excuses.
'Moreover, reputable studies show that around 26 per cent of those involved in grooming and exploitation rings are Muslims, which is around five times higher than the proportion of Muslims in the adult male population.
To pretend that this is not an issue for the Islamic community is to fall into a state of ideological denial.
But then part of the reason this scandal happened at all is precisely because of such politically correct thinking. All the agencies of the state, including the police, the social services and the care system, seemed eager to ignore the sickening exploitation that was happening before their eyes.
Terrified of accusations of racism, desperate not to undermine the official creed of cultural diversity, they took no action against obvious abuse.'
Conservative, 36.67%, 291 seats
Labour, 33.26%, 292 seats
Lib Dem, 18.76%, 40 seats
That would be interesting.
Initially I was responding to the question as to why the 65+ were supporting UKIP.
However, it is noticeable that (as well as the polls) many young people, whilst a bit happier regarding multiculturalism, are very independent minded and do not want to be told by Europe in any form what to do. This includes many continental Europeans who currently work in the London area - also many are quite nationalistic and proud of their heritage (even though they see the world as their employment opportunity) and wish to return to their native country later and frequently do not want to see their heritage vastly changed by different cultures.
This is a problem of sexism, rather than political correctness, which we also see in the way that rape is often [not] dealt with.
Yes - well it's hard to ignore revolting stories such as this, especially when it happens on your doorstep and is carried out by people you know. But I'm not sure it's necessarily a Muslim problem though it may be that the combination of Islam and rural Pakistani culture is the issue. While reluctant to rely on anecdote, at my daughter's school there are some Muslim girls with Iranian heritage and their parents are dead keen on their daughters being educated, having good careers and living freely.
So I suspect that it's the interaction of religion / culture and particular social background which may be more relevant than one issue alone, especially since Islam has so many variants across the globe. At any event, feminists should be challenging loudly and persistently the misogynist attitudes behind this sort of depravity - a far more worthy cause for the Harriet Harmans of this world than worrying about whether there are some over-50 women presenters on TV.
Sure there's a large element of the statistics not reflecting the public sector pay freeze because the workforce is changing but that's not all down to job losses. The recategorisation of FE colleges, for example, increased public sector earnings by about 0.6% without anyone losing their job (or getting an actual increase).
For people in the public sector the best thing that can be said about the pay freeze is that it was handled progressively. The lowest earners were exempted (even if they didnt get whopping increases) and the pay cuts delivered through the pension contribution increases were generally targeted at the higher earners.
Last night Angela Eagle confirmed that:
“Any Labour candidate who tried to stand on a joint ticket with UKIP would be auto-excluded from the Labour Party – it’s as simple as that.”
Nice.
the world's most racially intolerant countries - Bangladesh gets top billing, UK most tolerant.
How's that East London thing going ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/10061025/Worlds-most-racially-intolerant-countries-mapped.html
That and the BBC.
I'm sure Harry was just trying to wind up a lefty! He should be ashamed of himself.
Also there is another fixing scandal breaking in India - looks like 3 players banged to rights.
http://www.espncricinfo.com/indian-premier-league-2013/content/story/636169.html
However how many Co-op candidates will be funded in 2015...