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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exactly 9 months tomorrow the 2010-2015 Parliament will be
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exactly 9 months tomorrow the 2010-2015 Parliament will be dissolved triggering the formal start of GE2015
One thing a lot of people have missed is that the formal campaign period will be far longer than we’ve seen in the past. The 2013 Electoral Registration & Administration Act 2013 extends the length of the statutory timetable for from 17 to 25 working days. Add on all the public holidays and weekend days and you get to five and a half weeks.
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I suspect everyone will be heinously bored well before Easter...
Isn't there a desire for the debates to be more spread out, with the first around February-March? If so, that might be the starting gun for unofficial campaigning.
Obviously if Yes wins that'll dramatically alter things, if No wins then things will be changed but less dramatically.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Charles, perhaps but Easter should perk people up. Easily the best of the religious holidays.
When will we learn whether UKIP will be counted as a major party by the BBC and Others? [It's my understanding that although the decision between the BBC and Others is likely to be the same, it could be different].
I tend to agree. It's a rather odd situation to be in, though, with one governing party on 7% and a party with no MPs on significantly more than that.
IMHO the only principles this lot have is to stay in power and win and to make sure their elite mates stay elite, which is why I will be voting UKIP, even if it risks Milipede winning. However I suspect a lot of people will be taken in for it, especially with Miliband and Balls as the alternative.
World's Largest Trebuchet - Warwick Castle
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouSTWX240-U
Nice video, think I've seen it before a while ago. Trebuchets are tremendous fun.
I suspect that depends on whether you are sending or receiving.
The question is: "Did the party in the lead in the opinion polls six (nine) months before the election go on to gain a plurality at the election?"
Canadian federal election (fixed-term)
======================================
The election takes place in October. The polls on Wikipedia for the preceding April and January were considered
* Oct 2014: TBD
* Oct 2011: Yes, all in Apr11 (Yes, all in Jan11)[1]
* Oct 2008: Yes, all but 3 in Apr08 (Yes, all but 2 in Jan08)[2]
Before 2008, it was not fixed-term
* Jan 2006: No, all in Jul05 (Yes, all in Apr05 but 4)[3]
* Jun 2004: unknown in Dec03 (unknown in Sep03)[4]
UK parliamentary election (fixed-term)
=====================================
The election takes place in May. The polls on Wikipedia for the preceding Nov and Aug were considered
* May 2015: TBD
Before 2015, it was not fixed-term
* May 2010: Yes, all in Nov10 (Yes, all in Aug09)[5]
* May 2005: Yes, all in Nov05 (Yes, all in Aug04 but 2)[6]
* Jun 2001: Yes, all in Dec00 (Yes, all in Sep00 but 5)[7]
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2011
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2008
[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2006
[4] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2004
[5] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010
[6] http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
[7] http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1997-2001
* Fixed-term parliaments don't seem to alter swingback against the incumbent
* Broadly speaking, if you're in the lead six months out, you will in a plurality
* The exception is Canada Jan06, where the Libs led in all the polls six months before, but the Cons went on to overhaul them and win.
We desperately need a "Dave is crap" thread!
Apologies, I thought you were actually advocating the policies in your comment.
They are all as bad as each other really. Labour likes to reward public sector workers and benefit claimants. The Tories, better-off pensioners and the married middle class.
There certainly seems to be little trickle-down in this recovery. The rich are still coining it, while those who remained in employment at the other end of the scale have little to show, apart from maybe their jobs now being safer (which is an intangible).
However I can't see why you will vote UKIP in a search for a party with a coherent political dogma, as it is a party that claims to be libertarian while embracing palaeo-conservatives.
Like doing a peasants rally just outside the leaders debate venue with huge speakers directed towards the studio so that people watching the debate will hear Farage's voice blaring in the backround, the media will simply be forced to cover the disruption as it will be more interesting that the debate itself.
Betvictor still at 100-1 btw.
For UKIP, the Australian Liberal Party might be a model:
"...building a coalition from the Right, including mortgage-belt families, social conservatives and libertarians who place economics ahead of their liberal social views"
http://standpointmag.co.uk/node/5624
I think WI will have to chase 300 and fail.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/210899-have-zombies-invaded-congress
"The election for U.S. House for Oklahoma’s 3rd District will be contested by the Candidate, Timothy Ray Murray," Murray wrote on his website. "I will be stating that his votes are switched with Rep. Lucas votes, because it is widely known Rep. Frank D. Lucas is no longer alive and has been displayed by a look alike."
"We know that it is possible to use look alike artificial or manmade replacements," Murray continued.
http://www.timothyraymurray.com/Home_Page.html
Here you can read gems like this:
"Rep. Frank Lucas, and a few other Oklahoma and other States’ Congressional Members were depicted as being executed by The World Court on or about Jan. 11, 2011 in Southern Ukraine. "
* Cameron's vision: include national parliaments in the decision-making loop of the EU (cf the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe), allow powers to be repatriated back and forth as national parliaments change, etc.
* Juncker's vision: further federalise the EU, allow special status for UK (and any other refuseniks).
The former has the European nation-states as the primary actors. The latter has the European peoples as the primary actors, bypassing the nation-states. The Eurosceptics point out that the lack of a demos and single language means that the latter view will not work. They have a point. The Eurosceptics conclude that the proper response to the problem is to leave the EU and let it collapse under it's own weight. My point is that such a collapse would be the worse thing since WWII and should be prevented. My concern is that Cameron simply doesn't have the ability to progress his vision and Juncker will win by default, leaving the UK orbiting a new star in the firmament: sometimes illuminated, often burnt, but always overshadowed. And that's if we're lucky...:-(
Hundreds protest over 'BBC bias'
Making a mess of the leaders debate with giant booming speakers is much more cool and interesting for TV, they will show clips of it around the world on almost every TV station with a news department, while an online steaming will just get a few views on ustream.
So fixed term parliaments don't make much difference to when swingback occurs, but the sample range is quite small.
Seems to back up my feeling that autumn is going to be a critical period. Ideally we'll be looking for Con's to have a consistent lead in polls by November (six months from election)
Why would Germany give up its power of control over european politics that it has achieved under the present system, by getting rid of its own existence?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100278054/make-no-mistake-labours-dead-hand-is-ed-milibands-and-his-alone/#disqus_thread
However, that is by-the-by. I hope you will in return acknowledge that I quite regret the death of Cameron's ambition: his ideas were good and his logic sound. But that's not enough, he must also project power. And the true tragedy of the Junckerfuck is that he did not project power: they ran over us like we just weren't there. And that's not good for the UK, whichever party one cleaves to.
I see Jeremy Hunt is calling the EU28exUK cowards. Marvellous. Maybe he'll tell his mum on them, that'll show them...:-(
My toddler daughter regularly buys BBC magazines (for the stickers...).
In a quiet moment I picked up one and read the main story. The plot was thus:
Ben and Holly were visited by an alien who needed their help. The problem: the factories on their planet had made too much pollution which caused the sun to get very hot, killing all the plants and drying up the water.
Not really wanted to try into a debate on the rights and wrongs of the subject matter, but that's pretty strong positioning - even propaganda you might argue
Others might be disruptive if he starts to play that game.
Viewcode Indeed, it may not be perfect, but it will be better for us than the present arrangement
EPP: Manfred Weber (Germany)
S&D: Martin Schutlz (Germany)
ECR: Syed Kamall (UK)
ALDE: Guy Verhofstadt (Belgium)
GUE/NGL: Gabriele Zimmer (Germany)
Greens/EFA: Philippe Lamberts (Belgium) e Rebecca Harms (Germany)
EFD: Nigel Farage (UK)
Select committee chairmanships are expected to be 7 for EPP, 7 S&D, 2 ECR, 2 ALDE, 1 GUE, 1 Greens, 1 EFD as they are allocated using a PR system.
Some stats on the new Parliament provided by the EU Parliament website
Women represent 33.88% of MEPs. Highest share in Malta (66.67%), Sweden (55%), Ireland (54.55), Finland (53.85), Estonia (50%). Lowest share in Lithuania (9.09), Cyprus (16.67) and Hungary (19.05)).
Oldest MEP: Emmanouil Glezos from Greece, born 9.9.1922
Youngest: Anders Primdahl Vistisen from Danmark, born 12.11.1987
49.4% MEPs were present at dissolution. Countries with highest % of re-elected MEPs: Germany (69.79), Luxembourg (66.67%), Croatia (63.64%), Romania (62.50%). Lowest share of incumbents returned in Greece (0!), Czech Republic (28.57%), Italy (31.51%), Cryprus (33.33%),
In the italian example the Kingdom of Sardinia simply conquered the rest of Italy, so the government of Sardinia simply became the government of Italy.
In the german example Prussia partially conquered Germany and the smaller german states joined Prussia into a federation, but again the Prussian government simply became the German government, the smaller states had limited autonomy under strict prussian imperial control and almost everyone in the german government was prussian.
So since Germany controls europe it will allow an EU federation to exist only if the german government gets all the posts and effectively the german government becomes the european government.
If you read that Drudgereport over the last few weeks every day it feels like america is being invaded by dangerous bloodthirsty mexicans who hate the american way of life thingy.
No wonder the republican base is so fired up about immigration.
Two men, a dog and MikeK and MarkSenior on a lead. ^^
That the Greens (or Respect, or Kidderminster Health, or whoever), might have won a seat is by-the-by. There will always be some places with unusual local factors. Party status should be based on the big picture, not freak small ones.
But de-facto it is easy to do so.
Your point about the white vote is correct but of course it is a higher percentage of a successively diminishing number.
Latinos are a less cohesive group than blacks, they tend to vote more on policy issues not skin colour.
Major Party: one which stands a strong chance of forming the next government or being the next main party of opposition.
Secondary Party: one which enjoys substantial support across the country but which is not likely to be in a position to provide either the PM or the Leader of the Opposition, or which is likely to provide a sufficient number of MPs to be a meaningful force in the new parliament.
Minor Party: one which has a national presence but only limited support, or which is not a national party but which stands a reasonable chance of returning at least a modest number of MPs.
Peripheral Party: one of very limited support, either in terms of geographic concentration or total votes.
Coverage to be based on an approximate 5-3-1-0 basis.
LD & UKIP in Cat 2 ?
Greens, SNP, PC Cat 3 ?
Merbyn Kernow, BNP Cat 4 ?
Correctly UKIP were afforded major party status for the Euro elections and should they achieve a substantial block of MPs next May then it would be perfectly correct for them to enjoy major party status in May 2020.
I'm unsure why we should substantially change the rules just for UKIP. Let them get plenty of bums on seats and then re-evaluate.
Evolution of the Fourth Reich.
The essential issue is that GOP candidates have to track right in the primaries only to significantly compromise themselves for the months leading to the General Election.
The question for them is not so much the how but the who and the when. Presently I see no viable GOP candidate that might square their circle.
We require Great Uncle Smithson to work his magic, rub his head a dozen times, inspect the chicken entrails and come up with a 50/1 shot for a GOP Presidency.
Might OGH do the double .... you wouldn't rule it out, would you ?
Yes UKIP had too many golf club tories, but they are broadening towards supporting the lower middle and skilled working class who have been abandoned by the other parties. The fact that Paul Nuttal, a practicing catholic and member of SPUC is their deputy leader speaks volumes.
And of course UKIP are unambigously in favour of leaving the EU - I wouldn't trust Cameron further than I can throw him on his 2017 referendum promise.
Oddly, if I had to vote for any of the other three I would actually vote Liberal because they are the only one of those parties that actually pay heed to the democratic wishes of their members. But if UKIP don't stand in my constituency I will probably write none of the above on the ballot paper - or join them and stand myself :-)
How the hell have we engineering a situation where the Conservatives are banging on about Europe again?
Extraordinary.
The tories shut up about Europe for a while, and UKIP exploded. Now the tories don't have much choice but to talk about Europe.
http://join.ukip.org/JoinOnline.aspx?type=1
We are almost at 40K, come and make up the numbers. ^^