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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB jump 4% to take 9 point lead in first post Juncker voti

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  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Charles said:

    To the contrary, if you think someone is lying about something, it is entirely reasoned political argument to call them a liar.

    But what he said is "the product is crap, they are selling it by lying about how good it is".

    That's not the same as "he said X, X is a lie, therefore he is a liar".

    That's saying: I disagree with him, no one sensible could believe what he believes and therefore he must be a liar.

    Damn, I have just had to actually read Hitchens now.

    I don't see anything objectionable there. It's a bit disorganised, but seems to be saying that Cameron isn't actually a Eurosceptic, he's doing things to try to pretend he's more Eurosceptic than he really is. A fair point I would have thought.

    It doesn't quite conflate Cameron with people who might be "smearing" Junckers but does mention him in the same breath as them which you might find a little near the mark.

    Hitchens is not someone I would usually read, but don't see why you are so aerated about this article.



  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    ...
    ...it's the split between the official stats and reality. According to the numbers we're almost back to pre-crash levels. According to the polls and economic performance of the retail sector we remain broke. People can see a recovery for a select few, hear the government crowing about how well we are all doing, then look at their own finances and feel conned. And angry.

    Nonsense on stilts.

    All the regular polling of household finances are showing the population are becoming increasingly confident.

    Take the regular monthly survey by GfK as reported by Digitallook:

    Britons were at their most optimistic in nine years this month, according to GfK's consumer confidence survey, raising the hopes for solid economic growth in the second quarter.

    The GfK UK consumer confidence index increased to 1.0 in June, up from 0 in May.

    While this was slightly short of the consensus forecast of 2.0, it was the first time the index was in positive territory since March 2005.

    Nick Moon, Managing Director of Social Research at GfK, said the figure was "psychologically important".

    He added: "The last time the index was consistently positive was back in 2002 and this must be the next 'target' from the government's point of view as we get close to the election period."


    GfK's findings are confirmed by Markit and Ipsos-Mori who combine to produce the "Markit Household Finance Index™ (HFI™)".

    The overall HFI inched up again in June to from 42.3 in May to 42.5 in June, its second highest level since the series began in 2009. As the Markit Press Release explained:

    Household finances were supported by relatively low inflation perceptions, improving labour market conditions, subdued worries over job security and increased workplace activity during recent months.

    This is not to say that all sub-indices of HFI move consistently in the same direction nor that there isn't significant regional and sectoral variation. The index is quite sensitive too to shifts in media coverage and topical developments.

    For example, although short term inflation expectations improved, and job security, workplace activity and income from employment also slightly edged upward, the 12 month outlook for financial well-being fell below the 50 mark for the first time in five months. This was mainly driven by fears of a Bank of England hike in interest rates this year forcing mortgage rates up.

    If nothing else this shows how difficult it is for Mark Carney to avoid "blowing hot and cold" when making public comments. Just enough fear to dampen house price rises but not enough to kill off consumer confidence.

    So any claim that the wider population is "looking at their own finances and feeling conned" is not borne out by systematic polling evidence.

    A more relevant question is why rising consumer confidence is not shifting voting intention towards the government (yet).
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @AveryLP

    What was the pay rise for NHS managers, and what is it for nurses and midwives?
    Today's safety message, "Don't fall off your stilts while bloviating"
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:



    Tell you what: if any of the next 3 ICM polls show a 9 point lead for Labour I'll buy you a drink at the next Dirty Dicks meet up.

    Charles' wanton generosity knows no bounds!
    I was just getting a bit bored of saying that I don't trust Survation...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    To the contrary, if you think someone is lying about something, it is entirely reasoned political argument to call them a liar.

    But what he said is "the product is crap, they are selling it by lying about how good it is".

    That's not the same as "he said X, X is a lie, therefore he is a liar".

    That's saying: I disagree with him, no one sensible could believe what he believes and therefore he must be a liar.

    Damn, I have just had to actually read Hitchens now.

    I don't see anything objectionable there. It's a bit disorganised, but seems to be saying that Cameron isn't actually a Eurosceptic, he's doing things to try to pretend he's more Eurosceptic than he really is. A fair point I would have thought.

    It doesn't quite conflate Cameron with people who might be "smearing" Junckers but does mention him in the same breath as them which you might find a little near the mark.

    Hitchens is not someone I would usually read, but don't see why you are so aerated about this article.





    I haven't actually read the article...

    It was just Hitchens was being his usual sanctimonious tit: complaining about people being personally abusive while ladling it out himself
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,116
    We desperately need a "Dave is Crap" thread!
This discussion has been closed.