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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB jump 4% to take 9 point lead in first post Juncker voting intention poll
The fact that this poll coincides with a week that saw the Coulson verdict and the Cameron stand-off in the EU over the presidency doesn’t necessarily mean that these events have impacted on voting plans.
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OUT has an 8% lead in the normal EU question, but "if the UK is able to secure some concessions" then this turns into a 4% lead for IN
Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
43% (including 70% of Tory voters and 54% of Ukip voters) - David Cameron was right to oppose Juncker’s candidacy for EU Commission President
Ed Miliband has said that the election of Juncker despite Cameron’s attempts to stop him represents an “abject failure” by David Cameron.
- Net disagree 1% and 30% neither agree or disagree
- Tory voters net disagree 46% and 19% neither agree or disagree
- Ukip voters net agree 1% and 33% neither agree or disagree
38% (including 75% of Tory voters and 45% of Ukip voters) - Cameron’s decision to oppose Juncker’s appointment, even though he did not succeed in blocking him, is a sign of Cameron's strength
36% (including 31% of Ukip voters) - Cameron’s failure to block Juncker’s appointment, even though he opposed him, is a sign of Cameron's weakness
Which of the following do you think has the best policy on Europe? (net % Cameron over Miliband)
All +13
Tory +85
Ukip +29
Who do you think would manage to secure the best deal for Britain in EU negotiations? (net % Cameron over Miliband)
All +18
Tory +85
Ukip +37
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Jean-Claude-Juncker-Poll-MoS.pdf
Notwithstanding Stephen Fisher's projections which continue to show the Tories with a distinct but narrowing lead over Labour in terms of seats at the next GE, I am wondering whether say Ladbrokes' 8/1 shot against Labour winning between 351-375 seats (i.e. a majority of between approx 50-100) represents good value.
Certainly I'm more attracted by this than the "reverse" bet of them winning between 226-250 seats on offer at the same odds. ..... but DYOR.
From a betting perspective it would be really useful if Mike or another PBer were able to provide average polling data for the main parties covering the 12 month period, leading up to the 2010 GE, Clearly one would then need to make an appropriate adjustment for the currently much stronger showing by UKIP.
Trust Cameron to deliver referendum:
In supporters: Trust vs Don't Trust 66.6% vs 32.4%
Out supporters: Trust vs Don't Trust 39.9% vs 61.1%
If Juncker stays in the news and the UK pays attention to the election next time, maybe we could see Four Freedoms or whoever stands for the EPP winning a seat in London...
A good start would be by naming a precise date for the referendum - say 2 years after the general Election, i.e May 2017, which should provide more than sufficient time for the other EU states to say "No" to all his proposals.
He's already committed to a 2017 referendum anyway, assuming he means it, unlike last time.
Accordingly we need to discuss more important matters such as the devastating six points Scotland forced on a weak South African rugby team.
2) The remaining LibDems have strong incumbency caused by working the constituency for a long time and/or getting their constituents special tax breaks on their ski lifts.
3) Being sort-of in the middle, the surviving LibDems can get tactical votes from all sides, whereas in Newark it looked like UKIP may have been a victim of supporters of other parties backing the one best place to beat it.
That said, I suspect UKIP would do a bit better than 1 seat on 22%, because in local elections their support has ended up being a bit more concentrated than you'd think looking the (very low) 2010 scores these estimates are based on.
40% say right to oppose Junker, only Labour disagree
48% DK
Likelihood of EU handing back powers to Nations States:
18% None
24% Few Minor Powers
24% say EU wants more powers
To Invade Iraq was:
Right: 10%
Wrong: 59%
Increased threat of terrorism: 62%
Made world less safe: 48%
18% None
24% Few Minor Powers
24% say EU wants more powers
On this basis, I would imagine that probably fewer than 5% expect the EU would be prepared seriously to re-negotiate the UK's membership terms in isolation ........ it simply ain't going to happen!
the 350-375 seat band for Labour at 8:1 is good value. The Tories have seen the elephant trap of banging on about Europe and jumped in anyway. The Ed factor is now priced in, and he can only surprise on the upside.
Jack will be eating humble pie.
They are never going to win back UKIP voters by talking about the EU and promoting that as the most important issue.
5 poll average
http://i982.photobucket.com/albums/ae304/Gadfly_bucket/5poll-1.jpg
10 poll average
http://i982.photobucket.com/albums/ae304/Gadfly_bucket/10poll-1.jpg
But the point at issue in terms of the 2015 GE is rather the prospect of Cameron outflanking Miliband in terms of at least promising an [early] referendum, irrespective at this stage as to whether or not acceptable renegotiated terms are agreed with our EU partners.
A good many "In" supporters probably support such a referendum so that the issue may be resolved once and for all.
I think it shows that people have fully switched off election mode, knowing for the first time in UK history when the election is and its not for nearly a year.
They have returned to using opinion polls on the government in the same way as Geoffery Bloom uses magazines on journalists.
Hence, Labour and UKIP vote exaggerated and tory and lib votes squeezed.
Unless some very dramatic event like the ERM collapse occurs, I really don't think it is worth taking the opinion polls seriously until February 2015. I expect afer the Chancellors pre budget statement a tory surge then followed by a labour surge after Christmas when everyone has January blues, a crossover around the time of the budget which will be the most political ever and followed by a ruthless attack both personal and polices on Labour and a result somewhere around 35/30 +/- 3% either way which is a result that could go in any direction depending how much the Libs are squeezed.
Europe- yes Cameron is a federalist, to the extent that he has any principles at all, but if Europe gets put before country, it is also the case that Party gets put before Europe. If junking the EU saves the party the EU will be junked.
Your 8/1 wager on 350/375 Labour seat band is almost as funny as some UKIPers predicting them on 30+ seats and about as likely as Mr Juncker marrying David Cameron in Finsbury Park mosque on 31st February 2015 with Nigel Farage as Matron of Honour.
Are there any more mega surprises left in store in terms of World Cup results?
There are still huge odds on offer against the likes of Algeria, Switzerland and the United States.
Of course none of this trio is even remotely likely to win the tournament outright, but there should be money to be made on a trading basis with Betfair, etc if one or other of these were to progress further.
If I had to pick one, I'd go for the U.S. but as ever DYOR!
In other words fudge it big time! If Cameron didn't believe 2017 was do-able he shouldn't have promised it.
The Great British Public won't tolerate yet further inordinate delays in the holding of a referendum; a way simply has to be found to resolve matters.
How would you price up this seat band ?
Any thoughts?
What it shows is that Labour were doing very poorly as the main opposition for much of the Parliament, certainly in comparison with pre-UKIP days. This meant that if previous trends were repeated the tories could be expected to win comfortably.
But these trends are not being followed and the Labour lead is holding up. Each week that goes by with this situation makes the effect of swingback less significant resulting in more Labour seats. We are getting close to the crossover point where it is more likely than not that Labour will have the most seats on the model. It simply requires the polling to remain static for a very short period of time now.
I think the trend is clear and am moving back to a Labour majority being the most likely outcome, having always believed that they were likely to have the most seats. I am really struggling to see what can change this now. Fantastic economic results have not done it. A well received budget achieved no more than a temporary boost. Europe certainly won't do it, on historical precedent it will achieve the reverse. The majority now have their view of Ed. It's not flattering but it is priced in. Tory supporters, like myself, really have to answer the question of what is going to change this? I am struggling.
(I am, of course, referring to a certain group of young men who went over for a kick about)
An autumn statement, perhaps, but not a Budget.
Those people who went into the poll station* intending to vote Kinnock and then decided, last minute, they didn't want him as PM and plumped for Major instead.
(Hyperbole: with hindsight the swing started in earnest in the last week of the campaign)
What the Red Liberals need could d with is a leading figure, who would be actively anti-Tory but who could exact terms from Labour (e.g. no authoritarian police legislation) and be a visible standard-bearer whose support Labour needed to nurture.
YG Sunday Times LAB 347 CON 259 LD 18 Other 26 (ukpr)
Survation LAB 372 CON 223 LD 28 Other 27
Ed is crap is PM every poll makes Ed is crap is PM less than 10.3 months to go
"Q2. If there was a General Election taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for?"
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Jean-Claude-Juncker-Poll-MoS.pdf
There's still a sizable proportion of the electorate who believe that the main wellspring of conservatism is malice, they'll likely prefer kindly Uncle Ed to wield a more compassionate axe. To paraphrase St Augustine, "Lord make us solvent, but not yet".
A national thunderstorm on polling day.
I'm not joking on that one either. Fundamentally Labour has the ground and the numbers in their favour, but your conversion of support to people trudging down to the ballot box is awful from what I can work out so far this parliament.
Or do Labour voters only give a stuff about the General Election, if so will they turn out on a rainy day ?
As for the swingback, doesn't your analysis imply there should be scope for swingback from UKIP to the Tories. Admittedly that's harder (each switcher worth 1pt not 2pt on the Lab/Tory scale) but would also explain why the swing to Labour this parliament has been limited
"These people are like advertising men stuck with a product that is no good, a car that breaks down, a soap that crumbles into powdery grease when it touches water, a foodstuff that tastes disgusting and cleaves to the tongue. Yet they have signed a contract to promote it.
At all costs they must keep the consumer from seeing the truth until after he has bought the merchandise. One way of doing this is to spread negative stories about rival products.
The shameful and childish personal abuse directed against Ed Miliband has now reached a point where honourable Conservatives must be tempted to vote Labour in protest against it.
The reason for this Stalinist destruction of personal credit is simple. There is no political difference of any significance between the two men. So instead we are supposed to make up our minds on the basis of the size of Mr Miliband’s teeth. Heaven itself cannot help a nation which settles its future on this basis."
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
The tories need to focus on the softer parts of the Labour vote. Those in the public sector who were scared by the, well, lies told so effectively by Mandelson and others, those who thought the tories were indifferent to unemployment and now find friends and families in jobs, those who look at Labour's apparent indifference to a deficit of £100bn and are concerned they don't seem to think dealing with it is a priority, those who watch Benefit Street and get annoyed, who agree with the benefit cap and think the State is too generous to other people (not themselves of course).
There are votes to be had from these groups and the tories will also benefit from the collapse of the Liberal coalition. I just don't see it being enough. Not nearly enough in fact.
pre budget statement- November
Rise in starting rate of income tax to £11k with promise to align in further years with minimum wage
Generous increase in minimum wage
Generous settlement for pensioners
Budget -March 2015.
Osborne will no longer be constrained by coalition and this will be effectively vote for us if you want this. He may even risk having the budget voted down by Lib/Lab amendments to remove bits they don't like and promising to implement them in post May emergency budget
Measures:
Reduction in Higher rate income tax from 40% to 38% with promise to eventially abolish it by incremental reductions as the economy allows, merging tax and national insurance and having flat rate of 30% for those earning less than £150k.
Rise in Married couples allowance to be worth £500 instead of £200 pa.
Major hike in benefits in kind threshold from £8,500 to £25,000. This will exempt white van man from taxes on his van and also encourage companies to grant cars via salary sacrifice, ie pay cut to below £25k in return for car+fuel. Good for strivers, hard working families and business.
Abolition in means testing for council tax benefit for pensioners who have less than £20,000 income. No funding to councils to pay for it, instead they will be free to cut council tax benefit for shirkers under 65.
to pay for it.
Capital means tests applied to tax credits. (aligning with UC). No more money for shirkers with savings
Tax Credit child element capped at two children maximum. Existing claimants unaffected (but only until change in circumstances which wont be shouted- as will be case with UC)
After one year self employment, tax credits to be based on you earning minimum wage, even if you don't [which is what will happen with UC]. Crackdown on bogus self employed who leech of the taxes of hard working families.
All benefits paid to non working under 65 to be treated as taxable income, so skivers getting as much benefits as taxpayers will also pay tax on them if benefits exceeed minumum tax threshold (11k per year).
If you actually look at what the Government has achieved despite being a coalition and with a terrible starting point it's actually pretty good. It's not perfect...or even nearly perfect... but anyone who believes that a Miliband/Balls government would have been - or will be - the same is just a fool.
The Tories are simply unable to burst through the 34 ceiling, and will remain unable to do so whilst UKIP are in double figures.
All hands on seat defence/stop the majority
It is criticism of someone on the basis of the job they are doing
- Doing so by lying to the consumer (voter)
- Personally spreading "shameful and childish" negative stories
- "Stalinist"
Those also sound pretty abusive to me. And directly aimed at Cameron et al.
1. Ed is Crap. Their deeply held and sincere dislike of Ed blinds them to the fact that they sit on the extreme end of the opinion spectrum (along with Hodges and the rump of Progress-New-Labour entryists whose predictable rantings don't actually mean a Labour split no matter how much the press spin it). For most normals all politicians are crap,its just a question of how much crap. And they rate most of the Tories highly on the crap scale too.
2. The economy is amazing, where's our poll boost. Again it's the split between the official stats and reality. According to the numbers we're almost back to pre-crash levels. According to the polls and economic performance of the retail sector we remain broke. People can see a recovery for a select few, hear the government crowing about how well we are all doing, then look at their own finances and feel conned. And angry.
No economic recovery = no Tory victory regardless of Ed being crap or not.
Not sure I believe this poll, for either the blue or red numbers.
I didn't understand the bit about pensioners' Council Tax. Are you saying that all those with incomes under £20k will be exempted?
But that there will be no central government funding for it, so councils will have to pay for it.
As an aside, does anyone have the details of Miliband's pledge to increase local council funding by £30bn. I've only heard the R4 headline but no detail. If it's just an increase in the block grant that's a terrible idea, but if it is a step back to giving councilors real tax raising and spending responsibility it's an important move.
My net pay is even less in cash terms than it was in 2010 due to massive pension contributions hikes 6.5% to 12.9% outweighing pay freeze and 1% pay awards. Taking account of inflation in prices i am a minimum of 10% worse off.
Majority of nurses are still receiving a 0% pay award this year after 4 years of either 0% or 1%. Not election winning policy in my book.
If - for the sake of argument - you think UKIP is around 17% (I think that's at the top end of the range of the other pollsters), with the balance being Tories, then that makes the Survation poll 36/32 L/T which is more or less in line with the other polls.
Several other things are not happening that are needed for a tory win. Firstly, so far, the UKIP vote is proving more robust than anticipated after the Euros. Secondly, the Lib Dems are getting absolutely nowhere in recovering their support from Labour, in fact it is getting marginally worse. Thirdly, although the economic news is generally good to excellent the latest household stats showed real standards of living for the majority are still falling, RochdalePioneers point. Fourthly, and disastrously, the tories are talking about Europe again which is always a mistake.
Labour could implode. Ed underwhelms much of his shadow cabinet and that breaking into the open could create the perception of a divided party unfit for government. But can the tories really count on Labour committing hari kari? The same party that was willing to follow Brown over the precipice?
You can believe that all the polls are wrong if you like. So did some of the republicans before Romney lost
Personal abuse is calling Ed a geek, taking the mick out of his teeth etc
If it were aimed at Cameron, personal abuse might mention a bald spot or a red face
But Hitchens doesn't do that, he attacks Cameron for having no substance, and for pretending to be a conservative without acting like one.
The fact this is true is borne out by the votes he has lost to ukip
"Revised first quarter GDP figures, released on Friday, confirm the "better balanced" story. Business investment rose by 5% in the quarter, for an increase of more than 10% on a year earlier. Investment is much smaller as a proportion of GDP than consumer spending but over the past year it has made as big a contribution to growth."
Reductions in real wages are also not exactly unconnected to the rise in employment.
But none of this, while necessary, is winning many votes and those that claim that it is creating resentment amongst those who don't see any additional crumbs from the cake have a point.
Ukip on 22%? Just take off the amount we think they are wrong by and give it to the conservatives'!
I've tweeted the pollster to tell them they are wrong!!
Have you told CCHQ they have got the membership numbers wrong as well?!
My view is that UKIP will be around 10-12 (I had them on 6-8 previously so good progress), with the LD on 12-14. But you could easily see the LD slip back further than this.
Does anyone offer sensible odds on a 3+4 vote share combo?
It's not reasoned political argument.
What I am saying is that in my view they systematically overstate UKIP and understate the Tories. That is a flaw with their methodology. I don't know how much by - but if *for the sake of argument* it is 5% then that would put them in line with the other polls.
Of course they could be right any everyone else wrong, but I'd rather trust ICM.
Maybe the public hates the way the tories do business in Europe. All the craven language, the soft pedalling, the courting of unappealing foreigners with no stake in our country.
They don;t see why, if we want powers back, we don;t just take them. What are the EU going to do, send an army?? All this 'tough road ahead - big battles to fight...' stuff is just so much weakling cowardly guff to the man in the street.
In a way, we look much weaker under the tories than under labour, where we just quietly accepted everything.
He accuses him of spreading negative stories, which he describes as a Stalinist tactic.
Work in Gideons office ROTFL
There is indeed a danger that posting something like this will give him ideas, but the aim is to set out the sort of things I think they will do to shore up their own vote and put labour and liberals on the backfoot.
The biggest risk with the tax credit changes is that they might be seen as an admission that UC is dead in the water and reveal some of UCs nasty surprises the wrong side of the election, but that could possibly be dismissed as labour scaremongering.
ICM had Labour on 35% and they got nowhere near that
Another had the Tories winning, and they finished 3rd
Anyone could pick and choose favourable polls for their party and bad ones for others to make a partisan point, but none of those arguments have any solid foundation behind them.
For goodness sake man, grow a pair!! The UK polling report average is sitting at 32/35. The fact that YouGov fluctuates on a daily basis from 1 to 7 leads for Labour is more an indication of problems with their weighting. Survation showed the difference between 1st and 3rd in the Euro elections at 9% whereas in reality it was 3.6%. A poll on Friday had the parties back to 1% apart and ICM has the difference at 2%. The Ashcroft Tory/Lib Dem marginals has us winning 15 LibDem seats and all this almost a year before the GE.
Both Margaret Thatcher and John Major trailed Labour heavily, in the latter case right up to polling day and both still won overall majorities. The GE2015 looks like the 1st since 1983 when the LibDems will be back to a fringe party. The Tories just need to beat Labour by 326 votes provided each of those votes is in separate seats. Even Peter Kellner is now saying the notion of 4-7% leads to secure a Tory win is no longer relevant, provided the LibDems remain in the doldrums.