The renegotiation was always bullshit. You can tell by the fact that Cameron was so vague about what he wanted, and the plank of what he did say he wanted wasn't even something the EU was responsible for. Had it been an actual thing Juncker would have been helpful: An experienced conservative fixer able to handle these incredibly complex negotiations. But it was never an actual thing.
So now we've got the bogus middle way out of the way, where do the Tories stand? Is everybody BOO, or are there still some people who want in? If there are, will they dare to say so?
I think it's a good thing to have such clarity. We have to choose between leaving, or ever closer union. The middle way, as you say, doesn't exist.
Vernon Bogdanor has said that Cameron can't repeat Wilson's trick of coming back from Brussels with a mouse, and calling it an elephant. Now it looks as though he won't even be returning with a mouse.
All the more reason to vote Conservative in 2015 (which, to be fair, you personally will be doing) as the referendum for the present at least looks like being won by No.
FWIW - Like anti-frank and Richard Nabavi, the miserable, wretched charade over the last few weeks is also shifting me to UK exit.
I always wonder how far BOO want to tow the UK out into the Atlantic whilst furiously waving their Union flags at Continental Europe ?
And crocodile tears fall down the cheeks of Jonny Foreigner as they wave their hankies at us whilst taking all our inward investment and advising us we have to obey all the EU rules to trade in any case.
As an economic plan it has all the paw marks of those dynamic wonders in the Labour but it appears that Conservative aren't immune to F*cktheeconomytis.
Jack, I know your views have been formed by several world wars, but the scaremongering about leaving the EU is just BS.
If you look at "Business" basically the CBI - representing the corporatist multinationals - wants to stay in, while the IoD - representing the UK based SMEs - is much more sceptical.
Can I recommend you look at some of the work these guys have been doing? www.businessforbritain.org http://businessforbritain.org/
We're an SME and would not go near the IoD, or the CBI for that matter. Both are parochial lobbying bodies that have done little to challenge the piss-poor ways this country does business.
I have an EE4g Mifi that I use when at conferences and various medical meetings, as well as visiting my dad on the south coast. It works well, and gives a good connection. The download limit is low, but when this is exhausted it allows web surfing on Pb and Diplomacy etc.
It would be wiped out by downloading movies or music quickly though.
Ot, Has anybody got any experience of EE 4g wifi home broadband? We live in a village with poor broadband connectivity, due to an antiquated exchange, none of the broadband suppliers can ever supply us with anything like their advertised speeds. EE have offered me 4g wireless (mobile, really) broadband for 25 quid a month, but with a 20GB download cap. A) Is it any good I'm not convinced 20gb cap would be enough.
The renegotiation was always bullshit. You can tell by the fact that Cameron was so vague about what he wanted, and the plank of what he did say he wanted wasn't even something the EU was responsible for. Had it been an actual thing Juncker would have been helpful: An experienced conservative fixer able to handle these incredibly complex negotiations. But it was never an actual thing.
So now we've got the bogus middle way out of the way, where do the Tories stand? Is everybody BOO, or are there still some people who want in? If there are, will they dare to say so?
I think it's a good thing to have such clarity. We have to choose between leaving, or ever closer union. The middle way, as you say, doesn't exist.
Vernon Bogdanor has said that Cameron can't repeat Wilson's trick of coming back from Brussels with a mouse, and calling it an elephant. Now it looks as though he won't even be returning with a mouse.
All the more reason to vote Conservative in 2015 (which, to be fair, you personally will be doing) as the referendum for the present at least looks like being won by No.
FWIW - Like anti-frank and Richard Nabavi, the miserable, wretched charade over the last few weeks is also shifting me to UK exit.
I always wonder how far BOO want to tow the UK out into the Atlantic whilst furiously waving their Union flags at Continental Europe ?
And crocodile tears fall down the cheeks of Jonny Foreigner as they wave their hankies at us whilst taking all our inward investment and advising us we have to obey all the EU rules to trade in any case.
As an economic plan it has all the paw marks of those dynamic wonders in the Labour but it appears that Conservative aren't immune to F*cktheeconomytis.
Jack, I know your views have been formed by several world wars, but the scaremongering about leaving the EU is just BS.
If you look at "Business" basically the CBI - representing the corporatist multinationals - wants to stay in, while the IoD - representing the UK based SMEs - is much more sceptical.
Can I recommend you look at some of the work these guys have been doing? www.businessforbritain.org http://businessforbritain.org/
Only members of the IoD wants OUT but not those who have connections with Europe. Virtually every one else including CBI, Trades Union are in favour of staying IN.
Ot, Has anybody got any experience of EE 4g wifi home broadband? We live in a village with poor broadband connectivity, due to an antiquated exchange, none of the broadband suppliers can ever supply us with anything like their advertised speeds. EE have offered me 4g wireless (mobile, really) broadband for 25 quid a month, but with a 20GB download cap. A) Is it any good I'm not convinced 20gb cap would be enough.
It depends on what you want to do, but 20gb doesn't go far these days. If you only use your computer fro text based tasks (email, standard, browsing, contributing to sites like this etc.) then 20gb will probably be more than enough, but then you don't really need fast speeds. If you want to watch catch up TV or movies do a bit of gaming, applications that actually need fast internet, then you are going to burn through your allowance very quickly. I seem to recall you have children at home; in my experience a teenager will consume a couple of gigabytes in a day, without breaking a sweat.
What will happen when you exceed your limit? I expect EE will charge you a hefty sum for every extra byte? Then your £25 a month becomes some unknowable figure in excess of £25.
Like Mr. Observer, I would advise extreme caution.
May I applaud those on the urban liberal left on this blog for their denialism. Their obstinate refusal to understand the political psyche of the British people (which is based on an unquestioning belief in freedom and democracy) will only hasten our departure from the EU.
In terms of the article I have little to question. David Herdson on this occasion seems to sum up the situation reasonably well. He doesn't address the most interesting aspect of this (perhaps a future article?) on how this will impact the Tory party because surely it will open a schism within its ranks between those who naively cling to the mealy mouthed mention of vague olive branches by Merkel and other treacherous self-serving European leaders and those who read this as David Herdson does as Brussels invitation for the UK to either surrender itself at the alter of ever closer union or seek the exit door
I ask that @MikeK withdraw his remarks down thread @ 0738am and apologize unreservedly and give an undertaking not to repeat them.
Please also delete his post.
Thank you.
If it were me I'd want that comment preserved for all to see, highlighted even. It says nothing about the person it was aimed at, but plenty about the person who wrote it.
I understand that position.
However this site has integrity and I believe so do I. I'm not prepared to let go such a disgraceful and scurrilous allegation slide by.
I await a swift reply from the MODERATOR or Mike Smithson.
I have an EE4g Mifi that I use when at conferences and various medical meetings, as well as visiting my dad on the south coast. It works well, and gives a good connection. The download limit is low, but when this is exhausted it allows web surfing on Pb and Diplomacy etc.
It would be wiped out by downloading movies or music quickly though.
Ot, Has anybody got any experience of EE 4g wifi home broadband? We live in a village with poor broadband connectivity, due to an antiquated exchange, none of the broadband suppliers can ever supply us with anything like their advertised speeds. EE have offered me 4g wireless (mobile, really) broadband for 25 quid a month, but with a 20GB download cap. A) Is it any good I'm not convinced 20gb cap would be enough.
Thanks Fox, and Southam.
I'm tempted, because our speed is so slow, typically less than 2mbs on a good day, and activities such as watching LoveFilm, or online PS4 gaming is problematic on our current connection. My wife has an EE 4g phone contract, and she has no problems, and uses her phone rather than wifi as it's so much faster. That 20gb download limit is gonna be a killer, though. I just dont think it will be anywhere near enough, and according to the EE salesman, that's their largest contract. Oh well, guess I'm staying with the old bean cans and garden twine system we have now!
Luxembourg is a tiny Duchy that speaks both French & German, and shares a border with another almost non-country (Except for cycling prowess) Belgium which is only of any political importance due to the EU.
I think it is almost impossible for a professional politician from such a place to understand let alone seriously consider the British "island" mindset. To have chosen a Luxembourger then as the EU president is symbolically a massive show of further and enhanced integration.... particularly an arch federalist Jean Claude Juncker.
So the message is clear - we're either further in than ever or heading for Brexit. From what I can pick up European exit terrifies some posters on here yet others who previously were on the fence are now slipping towards exit as a position.
If Dave gets back in, I suspect he will be able to renegotiate even if he is still in coalition with the Lib Dems...
If so what real powers will he get back ?
CAP, Fisheries, Working time, EU immigration, EU benefits, non-implementation of FTT - maybe a few more. Or will he return with a pat on the head from the other leaders, and vague promises and platitudes.
The EU remains a nest of incompetent vipers (cf the eurozone) but I'm not convinced we're guaranteed to leave, even in the medium term.
Scotland's vote will affect things, as it's generally more pro-EU than England. I'm sure Cameron will get some pretend concessions, and perhaps one or two actual ones, but headway on the CAP is about as likely as Tony Blair apologising for Iraq.
However, consider how the debate would be weighted.
Out: Some Conservatives UKIP Some papers
In: Some Conservatives (including most of the leadership) Labour Lib Dems Some papers The BBC
In short, the right will split and the left will line up behind the EU. There will be some exceptions, there are some sceptical Labour MPs, but not many.
And, if In wins, then that'll be seen as a green light and full steam ahead for integration.
My views have changed this year, might as well change another.
I'm now think we're BOO, as it's clear that 'ever-closer-union' means just that, no matter what plausible spin is put on it.
Do you remember the furore over our failure to join the Euro, and the collapse in foreign investment that would ensue? All the jobs that would go? The car manufacturing moving to the continent?
We're the #1 destination for EU FDI, and it grew 15% last year. We're fifth globally, behind the US, China, India and Brazil.
The economic arguments deployed against Scottish independence are weak; they're laughable when used against the UK (rUK or otherwise).
@Edkin_Rokz This has to be a troll, surely? We over 40s have happily traveled the world for decades, what the flying feck has the EU got to do with it? If I'm thankful for anything, it's the dubious pleasures of Ryanair and Easyjet that have enabled me to do so.
I have an EE4g Mifi that I use when at conferences and various medical meetings, as well as visiting my dad on the south coast. It works well, and gives a good connection. The download limit is low, but when this is exhausted it allows web surfing on Pb and Diplomacy etc.
It would be wiped out by downloading movies or music quickly though.
Ot, Has anybody got any experience of EE 4g wifi home broadband? We live in a village with poor broadband connectivity, due to an antiquated exchange, none of the broadband suppliers can ever supply us with anything like their advertised speeds. EE have offered me 4g wireless (mobile, really) broadband for 25 quid a month, but with a 20GB download cap. A) Is it any good I'm not convinced 20gb cap would be enough.
Thanks Fox, and Southam.
I'm tempted, because our speed is so slow, typically less than 2mbs on a good day, and activities such as watching LoveFilm, or online PS4 gaming is problematic on our current connection. My wife has an EE 4g phone contract, and she has no problems, and uses her phone rather than wifi as it's so much faster. That 20gb download limit is gonna be a killer, though. I just dont think it will be anywhere near enough, and according to the EE salesman, that's their largest contract. Oh well, guess I'm staying with the old bean cans and garden twine system we have now!
Why do you think the 20GB limit would be too small? That's a lot of downloading.
Three's pay-as-you-go USB dongle thingy charges £25 for 7GB.
The EU remains a nest of incompetent vipers (cf the eurozone) but I'm not convinced we're guaranteed to leave, even in the medium term.
Scotland's vote will affect things, as it's generally more pro-EU than England. I'm sure Cameron will get some pretend concessions, and perhaps one or two actual ones, but headway on the CAP is about as likely as Tony Blair apologising for Iraq.
However, consider how the debate would be weighted.
Out: Some Conservatives UKIP Some papers
In: Some Conservatives (including most of the leadership) Labour Lib Dems Some papers The BBC
In short, the right will split and the left will line up behind the EU. There will be some exceptions, there are some sceptical Labour MPs, but not many.
And, if In wins, then that'll be seen as a green light and full steam ahead for integration.
I'm not convinced Cameron will get anything, even pretend concessions.
I expect it does, not least perhaps because you have to be fairly rich in years to even remember life outside the EU. I was amused to read the post that said people under forty will want to stay in because they expect to be able to travel freely. As if foreign travel, even becoming resident in a foreign country was impossible before the EU. Of course, it happened with no more fuss than it does these days, perhaps a bit of extra bureaucracy of one wanted to take up residence in some countries but not excessively so. Exchange controls were more of a problem than anything else.
It is inevitable that people who have known no other system and who have been fed since infancy a line of how our trade depends on being a member of the "largest trading block on the planet" should be nervous about leaving. Perhaps this in an aspect of the debate that that the BOO types might, with profit, address.
I have an EE4g Mifi that I use when at conferences and various medical meetings, as well as visiting my dad on the south coast. It works well, and gives a good connection. The download limit is low, but when this is exhausted it allows web surfing on Pb and Diplomacy etc.
It would be wiped out by downloading movies or music quickly though.
Ot, Has anybody got any experience of EE 4g wifi home broadband? We live in a village with poor broadband connectivity, due to an antiquated exchange, none of the broadband suppliers can ever supply us with anything like their advertised speeds. EE have offered me 4g wireless (mobile, really) broadband for 25 quid a month, but with a 20GB download cap. A) Is it any good I'm not convinced 20gb cap would be enough.
Thanks Fox, and Southam.
I'm tempted, because our speed is so slow, typically less than 2mbs on a good day, and activities such as watching LoveFilm, or online PS4 gaming is problematic on our current connection. My wife has an EE 4g phone contract, and she has no problems, and uses her phone rather than wifi as it's so much faster. That 20gb download limit is gonna be a killer, though. I just dont think it will be anywhere near enough, and according to the EE salesman, that's their largest contract. Oh well, guess I'm staying with the old bean cans and garden twine system we have now!
Why do you think the 20GB limit would be too small? That's a lot of downloading.
Three's pay-as-you-go USB dongle thingy charges £25 for 7GB.
20GB is piddling if you stream any video. As a public service, I just checked my account (family of three, middling iPlayer usage + Sky Go), we've used 215GB from 1st-26th June.
If you're just web browsing, it's probably plenty.
The EU remains a nest of incompetent vipers (cf the eurozone) but I'm not convinced we're guaranteed to leave, even in the medium term.
Scotland's vote will affect things, as it's generally more pro-EU than England. I'm sure Cameron will get some pretend concessions, and perhaps one or two actual ones, but headway on the CAP is about as likely as Tony Blair apologising for Iraq.
However, consider how the debate would be weighted.
Out: Some Conservatives UKIP Some papers
In: Some Conservatives (including most of the leadership) Labour Lib Dems Some papers The BBC
In short, the right will split and the left will line up behind the EU. There will be some exceptions, there are some sceptical Labour MPs, but not many.
And, if In wins, then that'll be seen as a green light and full steam ahead for integration.
I'm not convinced Cameron will get anything, even pretend concessions.
There we differ: Cameron will assuredly win some concessions, the only question will be their importance and credibility.
Ultimately Mrs Merkel will have to decide whether she seriously wishes the UK to remain in the EU. To all intents and purposes, everything's up to her. Everyone else is essentially a side-player in this drama.
Dave had better prove his Eurosceptic credentials or his party will not forgive him. Funnily enough it wont do Dave any harm come the GE.....all those UKIP votes to hoover up. Whatever may transpire, the madness of Labour's open door policy on immigration will be laid bare. Just look at the recent UK population figures.
The current government is continuing Labour's open door immigration policy.
... What most of the old fogies on this site (and in the Westminster Bubble) forget is the internationalist outlook of the majority of the under 40's. They expect to be able to travel across the world and Europe in particular to work and play with out hassle.
Overseas holidays, stag, hen, school, wedding parties, weekend trips, pensioners living in France and Spain etc. etc., plus all those foreigners from the EU working, living and playing here are giving a new mix to our society. ...
You are of course correct. Overseas holidays, trips, and indeed the celebration of upcoming nuptials all began in 1973.
Frankly I miss the old days pre-EU when you couldn't go abroad.
''Ultimately Mrs Merkel will have to decide whether she seriously wishes the UK to remain in the EU.''
That was the case, it ain't any more. Merkel very publicly stabbed Cameron in the back over Juncker. She has far less standing in Britain now than she did before.
Juncker has said (and it's not unreasonable of him to do so) that the four freedoms are sacrosanct.
As the UK's difficulties are with mass immigration, rather than immigration per se, it's hard to see what concessions are meaningful. It's in the richer countries to clamp down on benefits tourism, but it's not the primary issue.
As I said a couple of days ago, it's a compliment of sorts; a good chunk of the people moving to Europe want to live in the UK (well, London if we must).
I live on the Herefordshire border, and our levels of permanent immigration are modest (larger seasonal swings for the harvest of course).
It's useful because of the county's demographics (it's a tad older than the UK average). However, even the 6-8% increase in population over the last 12 years are testing as the county is overwhelmingly rural, and the infrastructure and services are a bit creaky.
(it's a useful document for nerds, does anyone have similar locally?).
Importing more people to compensate for our aging population isn't a long term solution - it's more can kicking.
I predict the first half of the 21st century will be dominated by the challenges involved in weaning ourselves off the welfare state teat, without ruining the planetary ecology while doing so.
Europe just complicates things largely due to a number of our neighbours choosing to nail themselves to the cross that is the Euro, while assuring each other that the pain is transient and worthwhile.
The renegotiation was always bullshit. You can tell by the fact that Cameron was so vague about what he wanted, and the plank of what he did say he wanted wasn't even something the EU was responsible for. Had it been an actual thing Juncker would have been helpful: An experienced conservative fixer able to handle these incredibly complex negotiations. But it was never an actual thing.
So now we've got the bogus middle way out of the way, where do the Tories stand? Is everybody BOO, or are there still some people who want in? If there are, will they dare to say so?
I think it's a good thing to have such clarity. We have to choose between leaving, or ever closer union. The middle way, as you say, doesn't exist.
Vernon Bogdanor has said that Cameron can't repeat Wilson's trick of coming back from Brussels with a mouse, and calling it an elephant. Now it looks as though he won't even be returning with a mouse.
All the more reason to vote Conservative in 2015 (which, to be fair, you personally will be doing) as the referendum for the present at least looks like being won by No.
FWIW - Like anti-frank and Richard Nabavi, the miserable, wretched charade over the last few weeks is also shifting me to UK exit.
I always wonder how far BOO want to tow the UK out into the Atlantic whilst furiously waving their Union flags at Continental Europe ?
And crocodile tears fall down the cheeks of Jonny Foreigner as they wave their hankies at us whilst taking all our inward investment and advising us we have to obey all the EU rules to trade in any case.
As an economic plan it has all the paw marks of those dynamic wonders in the Labour but it appears that Conservative aren't immune to F*cktheeconomytis.
Jack, I know your views have been formed by several world wars, but the scaremongering about leaving the EU is just BS.
If you look at "Business" basically the CBI - representing the corporatist multinationals - wants to stay in, while the IoD - representing the UK based SMEs - is much more sceptical.
Can I recommend you look at some of the work these guys have been doing? www.businessforbritain.org http://businessforbritain.org/
We're an SME and would not go near the IoD, or the CBI for that matter. Both are parochial lobbying bodies that have done little to challenge the piss-poor ways this country does business.
The majority view is probably for staying in, but with reform. Overall, we like the trading opportunities but in general, there's a fear of "mission creep" , which has been a consistent feature.
If Cameron's re-negotiation consists of a few baubles and just a slowing down of "mission creep", he may struggle to sell it,
"In with reform" has been the argument for staying in for the last 40 years. You do wonder when people will face reality enough to stop believing in it. Most believers in Father Christmas give it up after just a decade.
That's not really true. From the early 80s (after the rebate) until the Delors agenda took over from the push to complete the Single Market as the driving force of the union, 'In with no need for substantial reform' roughly summed the situation up. Sure, some things could have been done better but the arguments were about detail not principle.
Put another way, In with reform was the argument in the 1970s and Britain got the reform it was after. I suspect that one reason for the disillusionment now is not because it's always been a duff idea but because briefly it wasn't; it was the vision that had been sold but that that vision was then corrupted.
''Ultimately Mrs Merkel will have to decide whether she seriously wishes the UK to remain in the EU.''
That was the case, it ain't any more. Merkel very publicly stabbed Cameron in the back over Juncker. She has far less standing in Britain now than she did before.
It isn't her decision any more.
She did indeed stab Cameron in the back which is why any confidence in her obtaining substantive concessions in 2017 is declining fast, and explains why pragmatic, moderate and mainstream Tories (i.e. me!) are shifting towards voting no.
Mr. Taffys, less standing generally. Merkel buckled and broke over Juncker. Is it better or worse to fight and lose than to be a turncoat on the winning side?
But this is part of the point. A confederacy of 28 nation-states naturally sees the nation-states becomes less significant and power drift instead to the confederacy itself. The EU is broken, inherently. Like the Western Roman Empire once Valentinian died, it's only a matter of time before the fundamental challenges it faces tears it apart.
The political class are pressing for integration, the electorate are moving in the opposite direction. The eurozone is a catastrophic failure and greater integration will make it worse, and exacerbate the future difficulties of disentangling a score of disparate nations from a single currency.
Meanwhile, China, India and Brazil are pressing ahead and we face greater international competition than before.
The justification from Juncker and his allies is a simple one: his party group won the election and therefore as their nominee, he has the right to the job.
Herdie: I always Capitalise after a colon; semi-colons are more flexible. But to return to the topic-of-conversation....
This is a "known-known": England is carrying too much burden for the failed WWII nations. If you add in Commonwealth-guilt & Celtic subsidies then we are paying about 3% of our national income* in DaneGeld to these defeated nations.
Once England leaves the EU that income-stream will be dammed. [Sic]. On the anniversary of 'Gabbie Princips' Marxist attack on Europe and Her Imperial ambitions** (including subjugating the "Island Monkies"***) it is about time we lost our guilt and move forward; expeditionary-like innit!
* Overseas Development ~ 0.7%; EU ~0.7%; Celtic fringes make up a similar amount (including the faux Cornish). ** Sadly, we English become overstretched in the Boer War. The Dutch are not trustworthy: I used to live in Generaal Boothastraat in Tonglre.... *** Dutch phrase (according to my mate from the 45W/SBS).
If I had capitalised the word after the colon, it would have made it appear that Juncker was God. Commission Presidents might view themselves as grand individuals but I don't think they've yet pronounced themselves divine.
Put another way, In with reform was the argument in the 1970s and Britain got the reform it was after. I suspect that one reason for the disillusionment now is not because it's always been a duff idea but because briefly it wasn't; it was the vision that had been sold but that that vision was then corrupted.
That's not true. Most of Wilson's stated objectives for the EU negotiation were not met.
I ask that @MikeK withdraw his remarks down thread @ 0738am and apologize unreservedly and give an undertaking not to repeat them.
Please also delete his post.
Thank you.
They were quite uncalled for.
Yep, I don't agree much with Jack most of the time but the comment from MikeK was just nasty and completely unfounded.
Whats nasty about it? The unpalatable truth is that there were still plenty of even so called top people in both Scotland and England that wanted to appease the Nazis and Hitler as late as May 1941. Not only that, they were more than quietly satisfied when Germany invaded the USSR in June of that year, expecting a quick Russian collapse and the end of the war between Britain and Germany, on German terms.
These are the same sort of people that want Britain swallowed into Europe.
I refuse to apologise to that pompous inflated ego called JackW. So there!
It's nasty to compare someone to a Nazi collaborator, in the absence of evidence.
He was responding to Mr W's "UKIP, a party disproportionately full of various loons, racists, homophobes and misogynists.".
We really are a lot nearer the end of the road here as a result of yesterday. The tradition was this was done by consensus not by the QMV in the treaty. The consensus required the major players to agree or be bought off. We were ignored. This follows on the fight about the FTT where our interests were again being ignored.
I no longer believe being in this club is a good thing. If we can find a realistic and credible alternative I think we should go for it. That will not be as easy as UKIP pretend but it should now be the priority. EU membership is clearly not going to be in our interests going forward.
I ask that @MikeK withdraw his remarks down thread @ 0738am and apologize unreservedly and give an undertaking not to repeat them.
Please also delete his post.
Thank you.
They were quite uncalled for.
Yep, I don't agree much with Jack most of the time but the comment from MikeK was just nasty and completely unfounded.
Whats nasty about it? The unpalatable truth is that there were still plenty of even so called top people in both Scotland and England that wanted to appease the Nazis and Hitler as late as May 1941. Not only that, they were more than quietly satisfied when Germany invaded the USSR in June of that year, expecting a quick Russian collapse and the end of the war between Britain and Germany, on German terms.
These are the same sort of people that want Britain swallowed into Europe.
I refuse to apologise to that pompous inflated ego called JackW. So there!
It's nasty to compare someone to a Nazi collaborator, in the absence of evidence.
He was responding to Mr W's "UKIP, a party disproportionately full of various loons, racists, homophobes and misogynists.".
That was an unpleasant and unnecessary attack by JackW. It is still not on the same scale as saying someone is the equivalent of a collaborator with a regime that systematically executed twelve million for their ethnic group or sexuality, and unleashed one of the worst wars in history.
I ask that @MikeK withdraw his remarks down thread @ 0738am and apologize unreservedly and give an undertaking not to repeat them.
Please also delete his post.
Thank you.
They were quite uncalled for.
Yep, I don't agree much with Jack most of the time but the comment from MikeK was just nasty and completely unfounded.
Whats nasty about it? The unpalatable truth is that there were still plenty of even so called top people in both Scotland and England that wanted to appease the Nazis and Hitler as late as May 1941. Not only that, they were more than quietly satisfied when Germany invaded the USSR in June of that year, expecting a quick Russian collapse and the end of the war between Britain and Germany, on German terms.
These are the same sort of people that want Britain swallowed into Europe.
I refuse to apologise to that pompous inflated ego called JackW. So there!
It's nasty to compare someone to a Nazi collaborator, in the absence of evidence.
He was responding to Mr W's "UKIP, a party disproportionately full of various loons, racists, homophobes and misogynists.".
"To all intents and purposes, everything's up to her [Frau Merkel]. Everyone else is essentially a side-player in this drama."
If, I say if, that is true then surely the UK must leave the EU for it has become no more than a German empire.
I don't think that's right. She is the key swing vote but not the only one. In any case, if - against all expectation and likelihood - Cameron could emerge from a renegotiation process with meaningful reform, that of itself would change the nature of the EU.
I ask that @MikeK withdraw his remarks down thread @ 0738am and apologize unreservedly and give an undertaking not to repeat them.
Please also delete his post.
Thank you.
They were quite uncalled for.
Yep, I don't agree much with Jack most of the time but the comment from MikeK was just nasty and completely unfounded.
Whats nasty about it? The unpalatable truth is that there were still plenty of even so called top people in both Scotland and England that wanted to appease the Nazis and Hitler as late as May 1941. Not only that, they were more than quietly satisfied when Germany invaded the USSR in June of that year, expecting a quick Russian collapse and the end of the war between Britain and Germany, on German terms.
These are the same sort of people that want Britain swallowed into Europe.
I refuse to apologise to that pompous inflated ego called JackW. So there!
It's nasty to compare someone to a Nazi collaborator, in the absence of evidence.
He was responding to Mr W's "UKIP, a party disproportionately full of various loons, racists, homophobes and misogynists.".
He may well have been.
Unfortunately now that we cannot see the original post we can only recognise the validity of the unpalatable truth is that there were still plenty of even so called top people in both Scotland and England that wanted to appease the Nazis and Hitler as late as May 1941 without being able to read it in context.
Whilst it's obvious that the Moderators have a duty to protect the site from legal action - deleting posts that they merely don't agree with does rather unnecessarily confuse the flow of the thread.
''Ultimately Mrs Merkel will have to decide whether she seriously wishes the UK to remain in the EU.''
That was the case, it ain't any more. Merkel very publicly stabbed Cameron in the back over Juncker. She has far less standing in Britain now than she did before.
It isn't her decision any more.
She did indeed stab Cameron in the back which is why any confidence in her obtaining substantive concessions in 2017 is declining fast, and explains why pragmatic, moderate and mainstream Tories (i.e. me!) are shifting towards voting no.
I'm no hard line right winger. I support gay rights, limits to pollution, raising the minimum wage, protections for civil liberties and drug legalisation. But it has been obvious for a long time that there will not be a serious repatriation of powers. Even the words they use to give Cameron hope are always couched in qualifiers. The biggest danger is that Cameron is enough of a charlatan to get a few crumbs from the table and pretend it's a major change. The public are usually right over the long term, but it sometimes takes some time for them to process the reality of things. I worry that Cameron could pull the wool over their eyes for long enough to have a referendum.
Right, I've moderated the original post. Can I kindly suggest that we stop short of saying that other posters are the kind of people who'd welcome the Nazis.
Put another way, In with reform was the argument in the 1970s and Britain got the reform it was after. I suspect that one reason for the disillusionment now is not because it's always been a duff idea but because briefly it wasn't; it was the vision that had been sold but that that vision was then corrupted.
That's not true. Most of Wilson's stated objectives for the EU negotiation were not met.
It wasn't Wilson I was referring to; it was Thatcher. Between her winning Britain's rebate and the British-led drive for the Single Market, the EEC / EC was running largely along the lines that had been sold as achievable and desirable back in the 1970s. However, even while that was in train, Delors, Mitterrand and Kohl shifted the focus onto the federalist and social agenda that was crystallised at Maastricht and which it's had ever since.
I ask that @MikeK withdraw his remarks down thread @ 0738am and apologize unreservedly and give an undertaking not to repeat them.
Please also delete his post.
Thank you.
They were quite uncalled for.
Yep, I don't agree much with Jack most of the time but the comment from MikeK was just nasty and completely unfounded.
Whats nasty about it? The unpalatable truth is that there were still plenty of even so called top people in both Scotland and England that wanted to appease the Nazis and Hitler as late as May 1941. Not only that, they were more than quietly satisfied when Germany invaded the USSR in June of that year, expecting a quick Russian collapse and the end of the war between Britain and Germany, on German terms.
These are the same sort of people that want Britain swallowed into Europe.
I refuse to apologise to that pompous inflated ego called JackW. So there!
It's nasty to compare someone to a Nazi collaborator, in the absence of evidence.
He was responding to Mr W's "UKIP, a party disproportionately full of various loons, racists, homophobes and misogynists.".
A self evident truism .
Actually it's the furthest thing from it. UKIP kick out their racists and misogynists. Parties like the Lib Dems mostly turn a blind eye to theirs unless the media forces them into it.
I ask that @MikeK withdraw his remarks down thread @ 0738am and apologize unreservedly and give an undertaking not to repeat them.
Please also delete his post.
Thank you.
They were quite uncalled for.
Yep, I don't agree much with Jack most of the time but the comment from MikeK was just nasty and completely unfounded.
Whats nasty about it? The unpalatable truth is that there were still plenty of even so called top people in both Scotland and England that wanted to appease the Nazis and Hitler as late as May 1941. Not only that, they were more than quietly satisfied when Germany invaded the USSR in June of that year, expecting a quick Russian collapse and the end of the war between Britain and Germany, on German terms.
These are the same sort of people that want Britain swallowed into Europe.
I refuse to apologise to that pompous inflated ego called JackW. So there!
It's nasty to compare someone to a Nazi collaborator, in the absence of evidence.
He was responding to Mr W's "UKIP, a party disproportionately full of various loons, racists, homophobes and misogynists.".
That was an unpleasant and unnecessary attack by JackW. It is still not on the same scale as saying someone is the equivalent of a collaborator with a regime that systematically executed twelve million for their ethnic group or sexuality, and unleashed one of the worst wars in history.
Indeed. Hyperbole on both sides.
And just when we thought that all of the unpleasant trolling was over, MarkSenior crawls out from his sewer.
I ask that @MikeK withdraw his remarks down thread @ 0738am and apologize unreservedly and give an undertaking not to repeat them.
Please also delete his post.
Thank you.
They were quite uncalled for.
Yep, I don't agree much with Jack most of the time but the comment from MikeK was just nasty and completely unfounded.
Whats nasty about it? The unpalatable truth is that there were still plenty of even so called top people in both Scotland and England that wanted to appease the Nazis and Hitler as late as May 1941. Not only that, they were more than quietly satisfied when Germany invaded the USSR in June of that year, expecting a quick Russian collapse and the end of the war between Britain and Germany, on German terms.
These are the same sort of people that want Britain swallowed into Europe.
I refuse to apologise to that pompous inflated ego called JackW. So there!
It's nasty to compare someone to a Nazi collaborator, in the absence of evidence.
He was responding to Mr W's "UKIP, a party disproportionately full of various loons, racists, homophobes and misogynists.".
In fact he wasn't , Jack W's quoted comment was in response to Mike K's and not vice versa .
"To all intents and purposes, everything's up to her [Frau Merkel]. Everyone else is essentially a side-player in this drama."
If, I say if, that is true then surely the UK must leave the EU for it has become no more than a German empire.
In any case, if - against all expectation and likelihood - Cameron could emerge from a renegotiation process with meaningful reform, that of itself would change the nature of the EU.
I'd be pleasantly surprised if that happened. But it would be a big surprise.
I'm currently reading Megan McArdle's "The Up Side of Down"
Chapter 5 talks about group think, sunk costs, and doubling down on bad decisions. The UK's EU membership could have slotted in to a UK specific edition. :-)
I suspect we will be out of the EU within the next five years.
I think the core Eurozone countries have grasped that the UK can't go where they want to go (basically a German dominated USE) and I think this is increasingly dawning on Cameron and the British political class as well.
So, an accommodation will be reached.
We'll be given some sort of "special status" which will be dressed up as the UK securing it's place within the EU, but effectively we'll be out.
There will be precious little gained in negotiations, the eurocrats won't want to give anything of substance away.
So, we *might* have a vote (Miliband won't hold one) and if we do In is likely to win due to the predominant view of broadcast media and the political class (easy to frighten people with the 3 million jobs line).
I ask that @MikeK withdraw his remarks down thread @ 0738am and apologize unreservedly and give an undertaking not to repeat them.
Please also delete his post.
Thank you.
They were quite uncalled for.
Yep, I don't agree much with Jack most of the time but the comment from MikeK was just nasty and completely unfounded.
Whats nasty about it? The unpalatable truth is that there were still plenty of even so called top people in both Scotland and England that wanted to appease the Nazis and Hitler as late as May 1941. Not only that, they were more than quietly satisfied when Germany invaded the USSR in June of that year, expecting a quick Russian collapse and the end of the war between Britain and Germany, on German terms.
These are the same sort of people that want Britain swallowed into Europe.
I refuse to apologise to that pompous inflated ego called JackW. So there!
It's nasty to compare someone to a Nazi collaborator, in the absence of evidence.
He was responding to Mr W's "UKIP, a party disproportionately full of various loons, racists, homophobes and misogynists.".
In fact he wasn't , Jack W's quoted comment was in response to Mike K's and not vice versa .
Maybe. If you said the sky was blue I'd look up to check.
I suspect we will be out of the EU within the next five years.
I think the core Eurozone countries have grasped that the UK can't go where they want to go (basically a German dominated USE) and I think this is increasingly dawning on Cameron and the British political class as well.
So, an accommodation will be reached.
We'll be given some sort of "special status" which will be dressed up as the UK securing it's place within the EU, but effectively we'll be out.
That's what I think is going to happen anyway.
That is pretty much how I see it too. As I said earlier we need to find an acceptable alternative to membership , one that recognises our substantial common interests and trading links but with no pretence that we are on the same road, just moving at a slower speed as Merkel is still saying.
I ask that @MikeK withdraw his remarks down thread @ 0738am and apologize unreservedly and give an undertaking not to repeat them.
Please also delete his post.
Thank you.
They were quite uncalled for.
Yep, I don't agree much with Jack most of the time but the comment from MikeK was just nasty and completely unfounded.
Whats nasty about it? The unpalatable truth is that there were still plenty of even so called top people in both Scotland and England that wanted to appease the Nazis and Hitler as late as May 1941. Not only that, they were more than quietly satisfied when Germany invaded the USSR in June of that year, expecting a quick Russian collapse and the end of the war between Britain and Germany, on German terms.
These are the same sort of people that want Britain swallowed into Europe.
I refuse to apologise to that pompous inflated ego called JackW. So there!
It's nasty to compare someone to a Nazi collaborator, in the absence of evidence.
He was responding to Mr W's "UKIP, a party disproportionately full of various loons, racists, homophobes and misogynists.".
In fact he wasn't , Jack W's quoted comment was in response to Mike K's and not vice versa .
Do you never tire of being wrong El Senior? Never wonder what it might be like to make an assertion, and later to discover you were actually right?
Keep waking up in the morning, and it's sure to happen one day. :-)
I ask that @MikeK withdraw his remarks down thread @ 0738am and apologize unreservedly and give an undertaking not to repeat them.
Please also delete his post.
Thank you.
They were quite uncalled for.
Yep, I don't agree much with Jack most of the time but the comment from MikeK was just nasty and completely unfounded.
Whats nasty about it? The unpalatable truth is that there were still plenty of even so called top people in both Scotland and England that wanted to appease the Nazis and Hitler as late as May 1941. Not only that, they were more than quietly satisfied when Germany invaded the USSR in June of that year, expecting a quick Russian collapse and the end of the war between Britain and Germany, on German terms.
These are the same sort of people that want Britain swallowed into Europe.
I refuse to apologise to that pompous inflated ego called JackW. So there!
It's nasty to compare someone to a Nazi collaborator, in the absence of evidence.
He was responding to Mr W's "UKIP, a party disproportionately full of various loons, racists, homophobes and misogynists.".
He may well have been.
Unfortunately now that we cannot see the original post we can only recognise the validity of the unpalatable truth is that there were still plenty of even so called top people in both Scotland and England that wanted to appease the Nazis and Hitler as late as May 1941 without being able to read it in context.
Whilst it's obvious that the Moderators have a duty to protect the site from legal action - deleting posts that they merely don't agree with does rather unnecessarily confuse the flow of the thread.
The accusation - and the reason I criticized MikeK for it - was not in the general but in the specific about Jack. It was unnecessary and, as I said, nasty. We all know that there were people who wanted appeasement and accommodation but Jack has never, to my knowledge, written a single word on here in all the years he has been posting which could lead one to believe he would have supported such a position.
As I said before Jack and I are diametrically opposed on many issues but that is no excuse for false accusations and smears.
I ask that @MikeK withdraw his remarks down thread @ 0738am and apologize unreservedly and give an undertaking not to repeat them.
Please also delete his post.
Thank you.
They were quite uncalled for.
Yep, I don't agree much with Jack most of the time but the comment from MikeK was just nasty and completely unfounded.
Whats nasty about it? The unpalatable truth is that there were still plenty of even so called top people in both Scotland and England that wanted to appease the Nazis and Hitler as late as May 1941. Not only that, they were more than quietly satisfied when Germany invaded the USSR in June of that year, expecting a quick Russian collapse and the end of the war between Britain and Germany, on German terms.
These are the same sort of people that want Britain swallowed into Europe.
I refuse to apologise to that pompous inflated ego called JackW. So there!
It's nasty to compare someone to a Nazi collaborator, in the absence of evidence.
He was responding to Mr W's "UKIP, a party disproportionately full of various loons, racists, homophobes and misogynists.".
In fact he wasn't , Jack W's quoted comment was in response to Mike K's and not vice versa .
Maybe. If you said the sky was blue I'd look up to check.
No maybe about it , just tab down and view the order of the actual posts . Still , do not let the facts get in the way of your own prejudices .
There will be precious little gained in negotiations, the eurocrats won't want to give anything of substance away.
So, we *might* have a vote (Miliband won't hold one) and if we do In is likely to win due to the predominant view of broadcast media and the political class (easy to frighten people with the 3 million jobs line).
When people like Delores and Juncker himself start talking about the UK having a "special status" it's worth taking notice, because these guys know which way the wind is blowing with the EU elite.
They've got an empire to build. The last thing they want is the UK holding back the project, so, sooner or later an accomodation will have to be made to allow us all to trade together, but also to allow them to go on and forge their USE without the "Anglo's" holding back their progress.
I would say this does depend on Cameron getting back in in 2015 though. If Milliband wins it'll all be swept under the carpet until at least 2010 - He'll just let Europe get on with creating their USE without saying or doing anything, good European that he is.
I suspect we will be out of the EU within the next five years.
I think the core Eurozone countries have grasped that the UK can't go where they want to go (basically a German dominated USE) and I think this is increasingly dawning on Cameron and the British political class as well.
So, an accommodation will be reached.
We'll be given some sort of "special status" which will be dressed up as the UK securing it's place within the EU, but effectively we'll be out.
That's what I think is going to happen anyway.
I agree that's a very plausible scenario. The problem is that dirty part-in-part-out compromises end up satisfying nobody (cf UK devolution) and the accommodation you speculate upon would turn out to be temporary.
I'd suggest that all we'd achieve would be to shuffle further down the road to formal exit and it would end in a much uglier way than a clean in/out.
I ask that @MikeK withdraw his remarks down thread @ 0738am and apologize unreservedly and give an undertaking not to repeat them.
Please also delete his post.
Thank you.
They were quite uncalled for.
Yep, I don't agree much with Jack most of the time but the comment from MikeK was just nasty and completely unfounded.
Whats nasty about it? The unpalatable truth is that there were still plenty of even so called top people in both Scotland and England that wanted to appease the Nazis and Hitler as late as May 1941. Not only that, they were more than quietly satisfied when Germany invaded the USSR in June of that year, expecting a quick Russian collapse and the end of the war between Britain and Germany, on German terms.
These are the same sort of people that want Britain swallowed into Europe.
I refuse to apologise to that pompous inflated ego called JackW. So there!
It's nasty to compare someone to a Nazi collaborator, in the absence of evidence.
He was responding to Mr W's "UKIP, a party disproportionately full of various loons, racists, homophobes and misogynists.".
In fact he wasn't , Jack W's quoted comment was in response to Mike K's and not vice versa .
Do you never tire of being wrong El Senior? Never wonder what it might be like to make an assertion, and later to discover you were actually right?
Keep waking up in the morning, and it's sure to happen one day. :-)
Not when I am correct , Mike K's now moderated comment was posted at 7.13 and Jack W's response at 7.21 .
The EU remains a nest of incompetent vipers (cf the eurozone) but I'm not convinced we're guaranteed to leave, even in the medium term.
Scotland's vote will affect things, as it's generally more pro-EU than England. I'm sure Cameron will get some pretend concessions, and perhaps one or two actual ones, but headway on the CAP is about as likely as Tony Blair apologising for Iraq.
However, consider how the debate would be weighted.
Out: Some Conservatives UKIP Some papers
In: Some Conservatives (including most of the leadership) Labour Lib Dems Some papers The BBC
In short, the right will split and the left will line up behind the EU. There will be some exceptions, there are some sceptical Labour MPs, but not many.
And, if In wins, then that'll be seen as a green light and full steam ahead for integration.
I'm not convinced Cameron will get anything, even pretend concessions.
There we differ: Cameron will assuredly win some concessions, the only question will be their importance and credibility.
Ultimately Mrs Merkel will have to decide whether she seriously wishes the UK to remain in the EU. To all intents and purposes, everything's up to her. Everyone else is essentially a side-player in this drama.
I would add that it is not only importance and credibility that will be necessary but enforceability. As we have seen, simple opt outs are no guarantee of anything. The ECJ has already found ways to circumvent various opt outs that have been claimed to be set in stone. This for me is where Cameron will fall down because he has not given himself sufficient time to get the necessary treaty changes ratified by all the other 27 countries which would ensure we were safe from concessions being reneged upon.
I ask that @MikeK withdraw his remarks down thread @ 0738am and apologize unreservedly and give an undertaking not to repeat them.
Please also delete his post.
Thank you.
They were quite uncalled for.
Yep, I don't agree much with Jack most of the time but the comment from MikeK was just nasty and completely unfounded.
Whats nasty about it? The unpalatable truth is that there were still plenty of even so called top people in both Scotland and England that wanted to appease the Nazis and Hitler as late as May 1941. Not only that, they were more than quietly satisfied when Germany invaded the USSR in June of that year, expecting a quick Russian collapse and the end of the war between Britain and Germany, on German terms.
These are the same sort of people that want Britain swallowed into Europe.
I refuse to apologise to that pompous inflated ego called JackW. So there!
It's nasty to compare someone to a Nazi collaborator, in the absence of evidence.
He was responding to Mr W's "UKIP, a party disproportionately full of various loons, racists, homophobes and misogynists.".
In fact he wasn't , Jack W's quoted comment was in response to Mike K's and not vice versa .
Maybe. If you said the sky was blue I'd look up to check.
No maybe about it , just tab down and view the order of the actual posts . Still , do not let the facts get in the way of your own prejudices .
Oh, you misunderstand me. I'm not saying that I believe you're wrong at all. I'm just saying that I don't trust you and would never treat you as a reliable source.
Mr. M, even if such a deal occurred it would simply be eroded as EU institutions whittle away the opt-outs or deals are contrived to make our non-participation almost irrelevant (cf the FTT which will damage our financial sector despite us not signing up to it).
Mr. Tyndall, basically the same thing I wrote, but I'll post my thoughts anyway.
I fear UKIP may end up being the EU's useful idiot in the next election (likewise Miliband).
Mr. M, even if such a deal occurred it would simply be eroded as EU institutions whittle away the opt-outs or deals are contrived to make our non-participation almost irrelevant (cf the FTT which will damage our financial sector despite us not signing up to it).
Mr. Tyndall, basically the same thing I wrote, but I'll post my thoughts anyway.
I fear UKIP may end up being the EU's useful idiot in the next election (likewise Miliband).
I concur entirely with your view, Mr Dancer. It would not be sustainable in the medium term and would cause much resentment and bitterness on both extremes whilst satisfying very few people in the middle.
Anything along those lines would collapse in short order as the two incompatible wings of UK In/Out attempt to salami-slice the fix from each end.
Right, I've moderated the original post. Can I kindly suggest that we stop short of saying that other posters are the kind of people who'd welcome the Nazis.
LOL, big jessie JACKW running crying to the moderator. Likes to give it out but cannot take it back. You could not make it up.
I ask that @MikeK withdraw his remarks down thread @ 0738am and apologize unreservedly and give an undertaking not to repeat them.
Please also delete his post.
Thank you.
If it were me I'd want that comment preserved for all to see, highlighted even. It says nothing about the person it was aimed at, but plenty about the person who wrote it.
I understand that position.
However this site has integrity and I believe so do I. I'm not prepared to let go such a disgraceful and scurrilous allegation slide by.
I await a swift reply from the MODERATOR or Mike Smithson.
I am very important and demand an answer now , how dare anyone be cheeky back to me, LOL,
On topic, looking at the process I don't agree that exit within a decade is odds-on. Generously say a referendum would be 50/50, you only get one, and referendum-less brexit is almost zero chance. You then have to multiply that by the probability of an in-out referendum, which can't be much higher than 50%, and negatively correlates with the probability of an out vote, because the more likely an out vote looks the more likely it is that the establishment will work out a way to wriggle out of holding the referendum. 30% tops, maybe even less than 20%.
There's also the possibility of brexit in all but name, but getting a new treaty done in ten years is tough. The EU needs a good three years just to choose the font. More likely everyone just muddles along while the UK bad-temperedly threatens secession but never actually does it, like Texas.
I expect it does, not least perhaps because you have to be fairly rich in years to even remember life outside the EU. I was amused to read the post that said people under forty will want to stay in because they expect to be able to travel freely. As if foreign travel, even becoming resident in a foreign country was impossible before the EU. Of course, it happened with no more fuss than it does these days, perhaps a bit of extra bureaucracy of one wanted to take up residence in some countries but not excessively so. Exchange controls were more of a problem than anything else.
It is inevitable that people who have known no other system and who have been fed since infancy a line of how our trade depends on being a member of the "largest trading block on the planet" should be nervous about leaving. Perhaps this in an aspect of the debate that that the BOO types might, with profit, address.
Absolutely agree. Pre EU never had any problems travelling or living in any European country post WW2 except those behind the Iron Curtain and those subject to Exchange Controls. Also my father travelled Europe in the 20s and 30s unrestricted.
So what are the positive reasons for staying in the EU for the UK and trade in the longer term is not one of them as the Western EU industry is dying and there are plenty of markets outside the EU but we have to cut costs and be competitive.
More likely everyone just muddles along while the UK bad-temperedly threatens secession but never actually does it, like Texas.
That sounds depressingly likely
Just whinge from the fringes as ever, luckily we will not need to be part of it.
Given the clear direction of travel of the EU would an independent Scotland really want to surrender its new found independence back to an increasingly federal EU?
One more thought on the odds: In the event that you get an out vote, there's a decent chance that the government, who will be scared of being demogogued for selling out the country in the exit negotiations, would then pledge to put the result of that to a referendum as well. So out have to win two referendums, each of which is basically a random independent coin toss.
If the BOOers knew what was good for them they'd forget about referendums (un-British funny continental things, no good ever came of one) and just try to get 51% of MPs then do the whole thing in one parliament.
More likely everyone just muddles along while the UK bad-temperedly threatens secession but never actually does it, like Texas.
That sounds depressingly likely
Just whinge from the fringes as ever, luckily we will not need to be part of it.
Given the clear direction of travel of the EU would an independent Scotland really want to surrender its new found independence back to an increasingly federal EU?
Richard , My personal preference is to be part of Europe, I am sure many would be happy with a federal position.
More likely everyone just muddles along while the UK bad-temperedly threatens secession but never actually does it, like Texas.
That sounds depressingly likely
Just whinge from the fringes as ever, luckily we will not need to be part of it.
Given the clear direction of travel of the EU would an independent Scotland really want to surrender its new found independence back to an increasingly federal EU?
Richard , My personal preference is to be part of Europe, I am sure many would be happy with a federal position.
Fair enough. At least as a country that is an informed decision you will hopefully be able to make.
Personally I think that it would be very sad to see an newly independent Scotland tying itself back into the 'ever closer union' of the EU. I would hope that both England and Scotland would opt for the loser relationship of EEA or EFTA membership.
One more thought on the odds: In the event that you get an out vote, there's a decent chance that the government, who will be scared of being demogogued for selling out the country in the exit negotiations, would then pledge to put the result of that to a referendum as well. So out have to win two referendums, each of which is basically a random independent coin toss.
If the BOOers knew what was good for them they'd forget about referendums (un-British funny continental things, no good ever came of one) and just try to get 51% of MPs then do the whole thing in one parliament.
I think there is a principle involved here no matter what the likely outcome. Leaving the EU is a fundamental change in our constitutional relationship and just as I think it was wrong to enter without a referendum I also think that such a vote is necessary before we leave.
Jack, I know your views have been formed by several world wars, but the scaremongering about leaving the EU is just BS.
If you look at "Business" basically the CBI - representing the corporatist multinationals - wants to stay in, while the IoD - representing the UK based SMEs - is much more sceptical.
Can I recommend you look at some of the work these guys have been doing? www.businessforbritain.org http://businessforbritain.org/
We're an SME and would not go near the IoD, or the CBI for that matter. Both are parochial lobbying bodies that have done little to challenge the piss-poor ways this country does business.
That's a fair comment. But the point I was making is that the interests of multinationals are not the same at the interests of the SME sector - and that IMHO, the SMEs are more important for the UK's long term health (although less prone to generating splashy headlines for politicians to crow over).
"Business" is not absolutely lined up behind membership of the EU
More likely everyone just muddles along while the UK bad-temperedly threatens secession but never actually does it, like Texas.
That sounds depressingly likely
Just whinge from the fringes as ever, luckily we will not need to be part of it.
Given the clear direction of travel of the EU would an independent Scotland really want to surrender its new found independence back to an increasingly federal EU?
Richard , My personal preference is to be part of Europe, I am sure many would be happy with a federal position.
I'm genuinely surprised. I'm pro Scottish independence. I just don't see the attraction of full EU membership for a newly independent Scotland.
One more thought on the odds: In the event that you get an out vote, there's a decent chance that the government, who will be scared of being demogogued for selling out the country in the exit negotiations, would then pledge to put the result of that to a referendum as well. So out have to win two referendums, each of which is basically a random independent coin toss.
If the BOOers knew what was good for them they'd forget about referendums (un-British funny continental things, no good ever came of one) and just try to get 51% of MPs then do the whole thing in one parliament.
I think it all depends on the result of the next general election. If Cameron gets back in then the chances of the referendum resulting in a vote for "Out" are I think higher than you suggest. So Article 50 is invoked in the autumn of 2017 and we are out before the GE of 2020.
If Labour wins, then we carry on as we are (but I suspect our relationship with the EU will be the least of a our troubles).
There is another possibility though, the EU nations essentially kick us out. The push for the UK to adopt associate membership, or whatever they want to call it, comes from Brussels and not from London. That may in the end be the most likely outcome
"Business" is not absolutely lined up behind membership of the EU
Yes, the multi-nationals such as Samsung, Google and Microsoft who have fallen foul of EU anti-competition laws would love to be able to isolate the UK and bully it.
Morning all and excellent piece as always David. I have always considered a better in and fighting for change to be the preferred stance on the EU. However the arrogance of Herr Juncker and chums is such that I am rapidly moving to the "time to leave" camp.
The only hope in the long run for the EU will be an organisation with 2 concentric circles. The inner circle of Euro members who form a virtually United States of Europe and then an outer circle which includes countries like the UK, Denmark etc who want only to share trade agreements with the inner core. I suppose in the EU and EEA/EFTA we already have that so perhaps time for Cameron to start promoting the benefits of EFTA outside the EU.
However I do wonder how our so called EU partners will feel if they realise we aren't kidding and the 2nd biggest paymaster after Germany might just turn off the money tap!
Easterross, It will be NO to leaving in an Independent Scotland.
Indeed. Which means the whole 'independence' debate is an utter sham, based on selling the ignorant the utter falsehood that a small nation within the EU can be anything approaching 'independent' -especially when Salmond has used Scotland's energy reserves and fish stocks etc. as negotiation tools to get back in, under terms that will no doubt be considerably worse than the current terms Scotland has membership on.
In other words, a total disaster for all concerned except Salmond, who having delivered Scotland to the EU on a platter, will be set for life.
Jack, I know your views have been formed by several world wars, but the scaremongering about leaving the EU is just BS.
If you look at "Business" basically the CBI - representing the corporatist multinationals - wants to stay in, while the IoD - representing the UK based SMEs - is much more sceptical.
Can I recommend you look at some of the work these guys have been doing? www.businessforbritain.org http://businessforbritain.org/
We're an SME and would not go near the IoD, or the CBI for that matter. Both are parochial lobbying bodies that have done little to challenge the piss-poor ways this country does business.
That's a fair comment. But the point I was making is that the interests of multinationals are not the same at the interests of the SME sector - and that IMHO, the SMEs are more important for the UK's long term health (although less prone to generating splashy headlines for politicians to crow over).
"Business" is not absolutely lined up behind membership of the EU
We saw this very clearly at the time of the Single Currency debate with all the threats and warnings from the big companies about the consequences of not joining the Euro. Given how false these all turned out to be and what a disaster UK membership would have been in the medium to long term, I do not think we can look to the CBI and their members for a balanced view of the overall benefits of EU membership.
"Business" is not absolutely lined up behind membership of the EU
Yes, the multi-nationals such as Samsung, Google and Microsoft who have fallen foul of EU anti-competition laws would love to be able to isolate the UK and bully it.
I cannot see Con/Lab/Lib recommending in a referendum for the UK to leave the EU. I would say that the real powers in this country, including large businesses would put so much pressure on the leading politicians in these parties, that they would not be able to support coming out of the EU. The polls suggest that the public are split 40/40 with 20% not knowing how they would vote in an in/out referendum.
When we look at Junckers time as Prime Minister of Luxembourg and Finance Minister, it is hard to not be impressed.
Luxembourg has the second highest GDP in the world and has had economic growth considerably better than both EU and UK, while having a low gini coefficient. It has successfully diversified its economy away from the traditional areas of Iron and Steel production, into financial services, other manufacturing and telecommunications and e commerce. It has a large immigrant population, and tradition of absorbing these into Luxembourgish life, and low corporate and personal taxes.
It has sound finances and civic peace, and good relations with its neighbours. I stayed a few days in the delightful Luxembourgish village of Wilz a few years ago on a camping tour of battlefields. It is a lovely place to visit.
Junckers has a far better track record of bringing economic and social progress than any UK politician, as well as excellent political nous and negotiating skills. I am glad that he will be leading the Commission.
The Miliband government will push the opposition to a more eurosceptic trajectory, however because of election cycles France is the country that will first leave the EU sometime after 2017 with Britain leaving on Jan.1 2022.
There is another possibility though, the EU nations essentially kick us out. The push for the UK to adopt associate membership, or whatever they want to call it, comes from Brussels and not from London. That may in the end be the most likely outcome
I doubt it - you can work around most places with QMV, or in the worst case non-EU treaty, and the drama will become less dramatic over time. Hundreds of years from now it might be one of those quaint traditions, where the president wins the election and all the member states ceremoniously vote for him, apart from the British who ceremoniously vote against.
Actually kicking the UK out would require a treaty, and aside from the small matter of the UK having a veto in that treaty, I'm not sure that the EU will ever be able to get another treaty of the full EU passed and ratified to do anything. They just have too many veto points.
When we look at Junckers time as Prime Minister of Luxembourg and Finance Minister, it is hard to not be impressed.
Luxembourg has the second highest GDP in the world and has had economic growth considerably better than both EU and UK, while having a low gini coefficient. It has successfully diversified its economy away from the traditional areas of Iron and Steel production, into financial services, other manufacturing and telecommunications and e commerce. It has a large immigrant population, and tradition of absorbing these into Luxembourgish life, and low corporate and personal taxes.
It has sound finances and civic peace, and good relations with its neighbours. I stayed a few days in the delightful Luxembourgish village of Wilz a few years ago on a camping tour of battlefields. It is a lovely place to visit.
Junckers has a far better track record of bringing economic and social progress than any UK politician, as well as excellent political nous and negotiating skills. I am glad that he will be leading the Commission.
In other words he did a decent job running the equivalent of Kent County Council with loads of Germans parking money conveniently over his border for tax advantages. Hardly Roosevelt is it?
More likely everyone just muddles along while the UK bad-temperedly threatens secession but never actually does it, like Texas.
That sounds depressingly likely
Just whinge from the fringes as ever, luckily we will not need to be part of it.
Given the clear direction of travel of the EU would an independent Scotland really want to surrender its new found independence back to an increasingly federal EU?
Richard , My personal preference is to be part of Europe, I am sure many would be happy with a federal position.
Fair enough. At least as a country that is an informed decision you will hopefully be able to make.
Personally I think that it would be very sad to see an newly independent Scotland tying itself back into the 'ever closer union' of the EU. I would hope that both England and Scotland would opt for the loser relationship of EEA or EFTA membership.
I presume that type of thing would be discussed as part of the negotiations.
Morning all and excellent piece as always David. I have always considered a better in and fighting for change to be the preferred stance on the EU. However the arrogance of Herr Juncker and chums is such that I am rapidly moving to the "time to leave" camp.
The only hope in the long run for the EU will be an organisation with 2 concentric circles. The inner circle of Euro members who form a virtually United States of Europe and then an outer circle which includes countries like the UK, Denmark etc who want only to share trade agreements with the inner core. I suppose in the EU and EEA/EFTA we already have that so perhaps time for Cameron to start promoting the benefits of EFTA outside the EU.
However I do wonder how our so called EU partners will feel if they realise we aren't kidding and the 2nd biggest paymaster after Germany might just turn off the money tap!
Easterross, It will be NO to leaving in an Independent Scotland.
Indeed. Which means the whole 'independence' debate is an utter sham, based on selling the ignorant the utter falsehood that a small nation within the EU can be anything approaching 'independent' -especially when Salmond has used Scotland's energy reserves and fish stocks etc. as negotiation tools to get back in, under terms that will no doubt be considerably worse than the current terms Scotland has membership on.
In other words, a total disaster for all concerned except Salmond, who having delivered Scotland to the EU on a platter, will be set for life.
That is some leap. Obc ewe are independent we can decide what we want to do , ie reason for being independent. Currently Westminster decides what we do whether we want to or not. Independence = democracy, union = crap. I would not like you negotiating for me if your starting point is I am going to get a crap deal, sounds very unionist viewpoint, all doom and gloom and we cannot do it. I like your supposition that every Scot is ignorant , I presume you are a towering genius
There is another possibility though, the EU nations essentially kick us out. The push for the UK to adopt associate membership, or whatever they want to call it, comes from Brussels and not from London. That may in the end be the most likely outcome
I doubt it - you can work around most places with QMV, or in the worst case non-EU treaty, and the drama will become less dramatic over time. Hundreds of years from now it might be one of those quaint traditions, where the president wins the election and all the member states ceremoniously vote for him, apart from the British who ceremoniously vote against.
Actually kicking the UK out would require a treaty, and aside from the small matter of the UK having a veto in that treaty, I'm not sure that the EU will ever be able to get another treaty of the full EU passed and ratified to do anything. They just have too many veto points.
In hundreds of years from now people will look at it like they do with the Holy Roman Empire, they will say "what's a European Union?, Is it an ancient football league?" The case that the EU will exist 10 years from now is very flimsy and you talk about hundreds of years.
Comments
May 2014 the warmest May ever recorded (following April 2014 as the warmest April ever recorded).
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/5
And there are people - some on here (a subset of the PB Tories) who seem to think this is all a hoax . I weep. I weep....
It would be wiped out by downloading movies or music quickly though.
What will happen when you exceed your limit? I expect EE will charge you a hefty sum for every extra byte? Then your £25 a month becomes some unknowable figure in excess of £25.
Like Mr. Observer, I would advise extreme caution.
On this site Mike suggested Michael Gove would lose the election for the conservatives.
Maybe it'll be the opposite...
In terms of the article I have little to question. David Herdson on this occasion seems to sum up the situation reasonably well. He doesn't address the most interesting aspect of this (perhaps a future article?) on how this will impact the Tory party because surely it will open a schism within its ranks between those who naively cling to the mealy mouthed mention of vague olive branches by Merkel and other treacherous self-serving European leaders and those who read this as David Herdson does as Brussels invitation for the UK to either surrender itself at the alter of ever closer union or seek the exit door
However this site has integrity and I believe so do I. I'm not prepared to let go such a disgraceful and scurrilous allegation slide by.
I await a swift reply from the MODERATOR or Mike Smithson.
Thanks Fox, and Southam.
I'm tempted, because our speed is so slow, typically less than 2mbs on a good day, and activities such as watching LoveFilm, or online PS4 gaming is problematic on our current connection.
My wife has an EE 4g phone contract, and she has no problems, and uses her phone rather than wifi as it's so much faster.
That 20gb download limit is gonna be a killer, though. I just dont think it will be anywhere near enough, and according to the EE salesman, that's their largest contract.
Oh well, guess I'm staying with the old bean cans and garden twine system we have now!
I think it is almost impossible for a professional politician from such a place to understand let alone seriously consider the British "island" mindset. To have chosen a Luxembourger then as the EU president is symbolically a massive show of further and enhanced integration.... particularly an arch federalist Jean Claude Juncker.
So the message is clear - we're either further in than ever or heading for Brexit. From what I can pick up European exit terrifies some posters on here yet others who previously were on the fence are now slipping towards exit as a position.
If Dave gets back in, I suspect he will be able to renegotiate even if he is still in coalition with the Lib Dems...
If so what real powers will he get back ?
CAP, Fisheries, Working time, EU immigration, EU benefits, non-implementation of FTT - maybe a few more.
Or will he return with a pat on the head from the other leaders, and vague promises and platitudes.
The EU remains a nest of incompetent vipers (cf the eurozone) but I'm not convinced we're guaranteed to leave, even in the medium term.
Scotland's vote will affect things, as it's generally more pro-EU than England. I'm sure Cameron will get some pretend concessions, and perhaps one or two actual ones, but headway on the CAP is about as likely as Tony Blair apologising for Iraq.
However, consider how the debate would be weighted.
Out:
Some Conservatives
UKIP
Some papers
In:
Some Conservatives (including most of the leadership)
Labour
Lib Dems
Some papers
The BBC
In short, the right will split and the left will line up behind the EU. There will be some exceptions, there are some sceptical Labour MPs, but not many.
And, if In wins, then that'll be seen as a green light and full steam ahead for integration.
I'm now think we're BOO, as it's clear that 'ever-closer-union' means just that, no matter what plausible spin is put on it.
Do you remember the furore over our failure to join the Euro, and the collapse in foreign investment that would ensue? All the jobs that would go? The car manufacturing moving to the continent?
We're the #1 destination for EU FDI, and it grew 15% last year. We're fifth globally, behind the US, China, India and Brazil.
The economic arguments deployed against Scottish independence are weak; they're laughable when used against the UK (rUK or otherwise).
@Edkin_Rokz This has to be a troll, surely? We over 40s have happily traveled the world for decades, what the flying feck has the EU got to do with it? If I'm thankful for anything, it's the dubious pleasures of Ryanair and Easyjet that have enabled me to do so.
Three's pay-as-you-go USB dongle thingy charges £25 for 7GB.
I expect it does, not least perhaps because you have to be fairly rich in years to even remember life outside the EU. I was amused to read the post that said people under forty will want to stay in because they expect to be able to travel freely. As if foreign travel, even becoming resident in a foreign country was impossible before the EU. Of course, it happened with no more fuss than it does these days, perhaps a bit of extra bureaucracy of one wanted to take up residence in some countries but not excessively so. Exchange controls were more of a problem than anything else.
It is inevitable that people who have known no other system and who have been fed since infancy a line of how our trade depends on being a member of the "largest trading block on the planet" should be nervous about leaving. Perhaps this in an aspect of the debate that that the BOO types might, with profit, address.
If you're just web browsing, it's probably plenty.
Ultimately Mrs Merkel will have to decide whether she seriously wishes the UK to remain in the EU. To all intents and purposes, everything's up to her. Everyone else is essentially a side-player in this drama.
Frankly I miss the old days pre-EU when you couldn't go abroad.
"To all intents and purposes, everything's up to her [Frau Merkel]. Everyone else is essentially a side-player in this drama."
If, I say if, that is true then surely the UK must leave the EU for it has become no more than a German empire.
That was the case, it ain't any more. Merkel very publicly stabbed Cameron in the back over Juncker. She has far less standing in Britain now than she did before.
It isn't her decision any more.
As the UK's difficulties are with mass immigration, rather than immigration per se, it's hard to see what concessions are meaningful. It's in the richer countries to clamp down on benefits tourism, but it's not the primary issue.
As I said a couple of days ago, it's a compliment of sorts; a good chunk of the people moving to Europe want to live in the UK (well, London if we must).
I live on the Herefordshire border, and our levels of permanent immigration are modest (larger seasonal swings for the harvest of course).
It's useful because of the county's demographics (it's a tad older than the UK average). However, even the 6-8% increase in population over the last 12 years are testing as the county is overwhelmingly rural, and the infrastructure and services are a bit creaky.
Ref: http://factsandfigures.herefordshire.gov.uk/1922.aspx
(it's a useful document for nerds, does anyone have similar locally?).
Importing more people to compensate for our aging population isn't a long term solution - it's more can kicking.
I predict the first half of the 21st century will be dominated by the challenges involved in weaning ourselves off the welfare state teat, without ruining the planetary ecology while doing so.
Europe just complicates things largely due to a number of our neighbours choosing to nail themselves to the cross that is the Euro, while assuring each other that the pain is transient and worthwhile.
Put another way, In with reform was the argument in the 1970s and Britain got the reform it was after. I suspect that one reason for the disillusionment now is not because it's always been a duff idea but because briefly it wasn't; it was the vision that had been sold but that that vision was then corrupted.
But this is part of the point. A confederacy of 28 nation-states naturally sees the nation-states becomes less significant and power drift instead to the confederacy itself. The EU is broken, inherently. Like the Western Roman Empire once Valentinian died, it's only a matter of time before the fundamental challenges it faces tears it apart.
The political class are pressing for integration, the electorate are moving in the opposite direction. The eurozone is a catastrophic failure and greater integration will make it worse, and exacerbate the future difficulties of disentangling a score of disparate nations from a single currency.
Meanwhile, China, India and Brazil are pressing ahead and we face greater international competition than before.
The English love a paradox, and one such is that sometimes when you lose, you win.
Is that starting to look true here?
I no longer believe being in this club is a good thing. If we can find a realistic and credible alternative I think we should go for it. That will not be as easy as UKIP pretend but it should now be the priority. EU membership is clearly not going to be in our interests going forward.
Unfortunately now that we cannot see the original post we can only recognise the validity of the unpalatable truth is that there were still plenty of even so called top people in both Scotland and England that wanted to appease the Nazis and Hitler as late as May 1941 without being able to read it in context.
Whilst it's obvious that the Moderators have a duty to protect the site from legal action - deleting posts that they merely don't agree with does rather unnecessarily confuse the flow of the thread.
And just when we thought that all of the unpleasant trolling was over, MarkSenior crawls out from his sewer.
I'm currently reading Megan McArdle's "The Up Side of Down"
http://meganmcardle.com
Chapter 5 talks about group think, sunk costs, and doubling down on bad decisions. The UK's EU membership could have slotted in to a UK specific edition. :-)
I think the core Eurozone countries have grasped that the UK can't go where they want to go (basically a German dominated USE) and I think this is increasingly dawning on Cameron and the British political class as well.
So, an accommodation will be reached.
We'll be given some sort of "special status" which will be dressed up as the UK securing it's place within the EU, but effectively we'll be out.
That's what I think is going to happen anyway.
There will be precious little gained in negotiations, the eurocrats won't want to give anything of substance away.
So, we *might* have a vote (Miliband won't hold one) and if we do In is likely to win due to the predominant view of broadcast media and the political class (easy to frighten people with the 3 million jobs line).
Exclusive! The Sunil's front page: Stick it up your #Juncker!
pic.twitter.com/Mhzcc4h4Vb
Keep waking up in the morning, and it's sure to happen one day. :-)
As I said before Jack and I are diametrically opposed on many issues but that is no excuse for false accusations and smears.
They've got an empire to build. The last thing they want is the UK holding back the project, so, sooner or later an accomodation will have to be made to allow us all to trade together, but also to allow them to go on and forge their USE without the "Anglo's" holding back their progress.
I would say this does depend on Cameron getting back in in 2015 though. If Milliband wins it'll all be swept under the carpet until at least 2010 - He'll just let Europe get on with creating their USE without saying or doing anything, good European that he is.
did a guest blog on why Farscape is better than New Who:
http://emmy-j.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/farscape-is-better-than-new-who-by.html
I'd suggest that all we'd achieve would be to shuffle further down the road to formal exit and it would end in a much uglier way than a clean in/out.
I'm just saying that I don't trust you and would never treat you as a reliable source.
Mr. Tyndall, basically the same thing I wrote, but I'll post my thoughts anyway.
I fear UKIP may end up being the EU's useful idiot in the next election (likewise Miliband).
Anything along those lines would collapse in short order as the two incompatible wings of UK In/Out attempt to salami-slice the fix from each end.
Essentially, MODERATION DONE, DECISION ENDED.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/matspersson/100027554/junckers-victory-is-a-bitter-defeat-for-cameron-but-far-from-the-end-of-the-road-on-reform/
There's also the possibility of brexit in all but name, but getting a new treaty done in ten years is tough. The EU needs a good three years just to choose the font. More likely everyone just muddles along while the UK bad-temperedly threatens secession but never actually does it, like Texas.
Absolutely agree. Pre EU never had any problems travelling or living in any European country post WW2 except those behind the Iron Curtain and those subject to Exchange Controls. Also my father travelled Europe in the 20s and 30s unrestricted.
So what are the positive reasons for staying in the EU for the UK and trade in the longer term is not one of them as the Western EU industry is dying and there are plenty of markets outside the EU but we have to cut costs and be competitive.
have to win two referendums, each of which is basically a random independent coin toss.
If the BOOers knew what was good for them they'd forget about referendums (un-British funny continental things, no good ever came of one) and just try to get 51% of MPs then do the whole thing in one parliament.
Personally I think that it would be very sad to see an newly independent Scotland tying itself back into the 'ever closer union' of the EU. I would hope that both England and Scotland would opt for the loser relationship of EEA or EFTA membership.
"Business" is not absolutely lined up behind membership of the EU
If Labour wins, then we carry on as we are (but I suspect our relationship with the EU will be the least of a our troubles).
There is another possibility though, the EU nations essentially kick us out. The push for the UK to adopt associate membership, or whatever they want to call it, comes from Brussels and not from London. That may in the end be the most likely outcome
In other words, a total disaster for all concerned except Salmond, who having delivered Scotland to the EU on a platter, will be set for life.
Luxembourg has the second highest GDP in the world and has had economic growth considerably better than both EU and UK, while having a low gini coefficient. It has successfully diversified its economy away from the traditional areas of Iron and Steel production, into financial services, other manufacturing and telecommunications and e commerce. It has a large immigrant population, and tradition of absorbing these into Luxembourgish life, and low corporate and personal taxes.
It has sound finances and civic peace, and good relations with its neighbours. I stayed a few days in the delightful Luxembourgish village of Wilz a few years ago on a camping tour of battlefields. It is a lovely place to visit.
Junckers has a far better track record of bringing economic and social progress than any UK politician, as well as excellent political nous and negotiating skills. I am glad that he will be leading the Commission.
Sounds plausible - reasonably senior-sounding, but not so critically important that you couldn't let Lansley near it.
Charles Clarke's league table of Tory leaders. Cameron's 2010 result VG @Dannythefink
pic.twitter.com/GnK6wFpbHj
Actually kicking the UK out would require a treaty, and aside from the small matter of the UK having a veto in that treaty, I'm not sure that the EU will ever be able to get another treaty of the full EU passed and ratified to do anything. They just have too many veto points.
I like your supposition that every Scot is ignorant , I presume you are a towering genius
The case that the EU will exist 10 years from now is very flimsy and you talk about hundreds of years.