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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson says “Britain’s EU exit is now when, not if”

The nomination of Jean-Claude Juncker as next EU Commission President has moved Britain substantially closer to leaving the Union.  On the one hand, Britain was marginalised in a process that has traditionally been built on consensus; on the other, the attitude of the Euro-elite – including Juncker – to the European Parliament election results has been to ignore the opposition to the EU direction of t…

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CarlottaVance

First!

CarlottaVance

The renegotiation was always going to be very difficult (if not impossible) to get anything close to what would appease the Tory Euro-sceptics - now Cameron has a reason for it not to work.......

edmundintokyo

The renegotiation was always bullshit. You can tell by the fact that Cameron was so vague about what he wanted, and the plank of what he did say he wanted wasn't even something the EU was responsible for. Had it been an actual thing Juncker would have been helpful: An experienced conservative fixer able to handle these incredibly complex negotiations. But it was never an actual thing.

So now we've got the bogus middle way out of the way, where do the Tories stand? Is everybody BOO, or are there still some people who want in? If there are, will they dare to say so?

SquareRoot

Dave had better prove his Eurosceptic credentials or his party will not forgive him.
Funnily enough it wont do Dave any harm come the GE.....all those UKIP votes to hoover up.
Whatever may transpire, the madness of Labour's open door policy on immigration will be laid bare. Just look at the recent UK population figures.

Sean_F

edmundintokyo said:

The renegotiation was always bullshit. You can tell by the fact that Cameron was so vague about what he wanted, and the plank of what he did say he wanted wasn't even something the EU was responsible for. Had it been an actual thing Juncker would have been helpful: An experienced conservative fixer able to handle these incredibly complex negotiations. But it was never an actual thing.

So now we've got the bogus middle way out of the way, where do the Tories stand? Is everybody BOO, or are there still some people who want in? If there are, will they dare to say so?

I think it's a good thing to have such clarity. We have to choose between leaving, or ever closer union. The middle way, as you say, doesn't exist.

Vernon Bogdanor has said that Cameron can't repeat Wilson's trick of coming back from Brussels with a mouse, and calling it an elephant. Now it looks as though he won't even be returning with a mouse.

JackW

The YES to staying in the EU will win the 2017 EU Referendum and the result will be :

YES 60% .. No 40%

Moving on ....

JohnO

Sean_F said:

edmundintokyo said:

The renegotiation was always bullshit. You can tell by the fact that Cameron was so vague about what he wanted, and the plank of what he did say he wanted wasn't even something the EU was responsible for. Had it been an actual thing Juncker would have been helpful: An experienced conservative fixer able to handle these incredibly complex negotiations. But it was never an actual thing.

So now we've got the bogus middle way out of the way, where do the Tories stand? Is everybody BOO, or are there still some people who want in? If there are, will they dare to say so?

I think it's a good thing to have such clarity. We have to choose between leaving, or ever closer union. The middle way, as you say, doesn't exist.

Vernon Bogdanor has said that Cameron can't repeat Wilson's trick of coming back from Brussels with a mouse, and calling it an elephant. Now it looks as though he won't even be returning with a mouse.

All the more reason to vote Conservative in 2015 (which, to be fair, you personally will be doing) as the referendum for the present at least looks like being won by No.

FWIW - Like anti-frank and Richard Nabavi, the miserable, wretched charade over the last few weeks is also shifting me to UK exit.

CarlottaVance

A typically sympathetic analysis from the Mail:

Alex Salmond’s top advisers have held a crisis summit on their referendum campaign as panic sweeps through the Scottish Government.

The Scottish Daily Mail can reveal that civil servants were ordered to raid the public purse and launch an unprecedented advertising blitz in a desperate bid to close the gap on the No campaign.

Mr Salmond’s most senior political aides, the Scottish Government’s top mandarins and heads of the communications department attended the emergency meeting on Thursday, which was convened in less than 24 hours.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2672882/Splash-cash-SNP-crisis-summit-orders-launch-huge-taxpayer-funded-publicity-blitz-Yes-campaign-support-plummets.html#ixzz35uUCHOmD


Looks like the Scottish govt is going to do what Westminster has done already......

RochdalePioneers

The Junker coronation leaves the Tories is a wee bit of bother. Their pitch has been "reelect" is and we'll renegotiate [unspecified] terms with Yerp then give you an in-out referendum on the renegotiated terms [where we'll campaign for In].

None of the Europhobes believed a word before. And now we have definitive proof that there will be no renegotiation, no repatriation of powers, no bargaining, because Dave has no power or influence over any of his counterparts and they're not interested. If the Tories maintain the pledge line it'll be torn apart for the façade it is. If they bow to the inevitable and say "a referendum on out" they'll be town apart by industry. It is a bear trap created by Cameron and stepped in by Cameron. To demonstrate to all of us what a fine politician and master strategist he is.

As for the article we won't need to worry about out. The post Maastricht European Union has been a disaster for everyone except the autocrats running it. Like a black hole they keep pulling in more and more power (sapping the life out of the extremities) and that happily is our easy exit. The next phase of development has to be a full economic union - there is no way the Euro can survive in its current form with so many sovereign governments in such dire economic straits. Those of us not in the Euro will naturally be pushed out, joining the broader free trade area but not in the Federated States of Europe. So I don't think we need to worry about how we exit, it will happen naturally.not that they'll call it an exit - I'm sure a gentle term will be found for remapping the EFTA countries to include Euro refuseniks. To save face for all.

Sean_F

JackW said:

The YES to staying in the EU will win the 2017 EU Referendum and the result will be :

YES 60% .. No 40%

Moving on ....

What if the government recommends No?

JackW

JohnO said:

Sean_F said:

edmundintokyo said:

The renegotiation was always bullshit. You can tell by the fact that Cameron was so vague about what he wanted, and the plank of what he did say he wanted wasn't even something the EU was responsible for. Had it been an actual thing Juncker would have been helpful: An experienced conservative fixer able to handle these incredibly complex negotiations. But it was never an actual thing.

So now we've got the bogus middle way out of the way, where do the Tories stand? Is everybody BOO, or are there still some people who want in? If there are, will they dare to say so?

I think it's a good thing to have such clarity. We have to choose between leaving, or ever closer union. The middle way, as you say, doesn't exist.

Vernon Bogdanor has said that Cameron can't repeat Wilson's trick of coming back from Brussels with a mouse, and calling it an elephant. Now it looks as though he won't even be returning with a mouse.

All the more reason to vote Conservative in 2015 (which, to be fair, you personally will be doing) as the referendum for the present at least looks like being won by No.

FWIW - Like anti-frank and Richard Nabavi, the miserable, wretched charade over the last few weeks is also shifting me to UK exit.

I always wonder how far BOO want to tow the UK out into the Atlantic whilst furiously waving their Union flags at Continental Europe ?

And crocodile tears fall down the cheeks of Jonny Foreigner as they wave their hankies at us whilst taking all our inward investment and advising us we have to obey all the EU rules to trade in any case.

As an economic plan it has all the paw marks of those dynamic wonders in the Labour but it appears that Conservative aren't immune to F*cktheeconomytis.

JackW

Sean_F said:

JackW said:

The YES to staying in the EU will win the 2017 EU Referendum and the result will be :

YES 60% .. No 40%

Moving on ....

What if the government recommends No?

I'm not expecting a UKIP government and neither are you.

And unless the Conservatives suddenly discover they left all their brains in Bournemouth neither will they.

A party that considers itself to be the party of business and economic competence determining to leave the EU will require a period in opposition to gather their wits again.

Sean_F

JohnO said:

Sean_F said:

edmundintokyo said:

The renegotiation was always bullshit. You can tell by the fact that Cameron was so vague about what he wanted, and the plank of what he did say he wanted wasn't even something the EU was responsible for. Had it been an actual thing Juncker would have been helpful: An experienced conservative fixer able to handle these incredibly complex negotiations. But it was never an actual thing.

So now we've got the bogus middle way out of the way, where do the Tories stand? Is everybody BOO, or are there still some people who want in? If there are, will they dare to say so?

I think it's a good thing to have such clarity. We have to choose between leaving, or ever closer union. The middle way, as you say, doesn't exist.

Vernon Bogdanor has said that Cameron can't repeat Wilson's trick of coming back from Brussels with a mouse, and calling it an elephant. Now it looks as though he won't even be returning with a mouse.

All the more reason to vote Conservative in 2015 (which, to be fair, you personally will be doing) as the referendum for the present at least looks like being won by No.

FWIW - Like anti-frank and Richard Nabavi, the miserable, wretched charade over the last few weeks is also shifting me to UK exit.

I don't see this as a humiliation for Cameron. He was right to force a vote a vote on a most unsuitable candidate. I don't think any other British leader would have achieved a different outcome.

foxinsoxuk

Dear DH,

A characteristically well argued piece:

But what do we want out of the EU in renegotiation?

How about:

1) The European Union must become stronger, simpler and more democratic. The European institutions should focus on specific major issues while leaving other matters to the Member States; we do not want a centralised Europe.

2) For us, more public spending is not the answer; we reject reckless spending of tax payers’ money. Fighting tax fraud, tax evasion and tax avoidance will also be one of our major priorities for the years to come.

3) We will tackle social fraud – social benefits for EU citizens should only be available if they have worked in the country where they live

4) We advocate prudence when it comes to further enlargements, but we want to create tight partnerships with the countries surrounding Europe, to create a prosperous, democratic and stable neighbourhood. We want to build a trustful transatlantic partnership while also strengthening our trade relations with countries in Latin America and Asia.

So where can we find such a reformist agenda for the EU?

Step forward Claude Juncker: all of the above are cut and pasted from his manifesto.

http://juncker.epp.eu/epp-manifesto

MikeK

MODERATED

Innocent_Abroad

Foxy, you have forgotten:

5) We will create a new defence to a charge of murder - that the corpse in life had supported socialism, mass immigration &c &c, and the accused is a member of the Conservative Party.

I'm sure John Loony would sign up for that. Not so sure about John O and Jack W, mind...

Sean_F

foxinsoxuk said:

Dear DH,

A characteristically well argued piece:

But what do we want out of the EU in renegotiation?

How about:

1) The European Union must become stronger, simpler and more democratic. The European institutions should focus on specific major issues while leaving other matters to the Member States; we do not want a centralised Europe.

2) For us, more public spending is not the answer; we reject reckless spending of tax payers’ money. Fighting tax fraud, tax evasion and tax avoidance will also be one of our major priorities for the years to come.

3) We will tackle social fraud – social benefits for EU citizens should only be available if they have worked in the country where they live

4) We advocate prudence when it comes to further enlargements, but we want to create tight partnerships with the countries surrounding Europe, to create a prosperous, democratic and stable neighbourhood. We want to build a trustful transatlantic partnership while also strengthening our trade relations with countries in Latin America and Asia.

So where can we find such a reformist agenda for the EU?

Step forward Claude Juncker: all of the above are cut and pasted from his manifesto.

http://juncker.epp.eu/epp-manifesto

The thing is the EPP does want a more centralised Europe, more powers for EU institutions, and a bigger budget for the EU. That's it's raison d'être.

edmundintokyo

foxinsoxuk said:

Dear DH,

A characteristically well argued piece:

But what do we want out of the EU in renegotiation?

How about:

1) The European Union must become stronger, simpler and more democratic. The European institutions should focus on specific major issues while leaving other matters to the Member States; we do not want a centralised Europe.

2) For us, more public spending is not the answer; we reject reckless spending of tax payers’ money. Fighting tax fraud, tax evasion and tax avoidance will also be one of our major priorities for the years to come.

3) We will tackle social fraud – social benefits for EU citizens should only be available if they have worked in the country where they live

4) We advocate prudence when it comes to further enlargements, but we want to create tight partnerships with the countries surrounding Europe, to create a prosperous, democratic and stable neighbourhood. We want to build a trustful transatlantic partnership while also strengthening our trade relations with countries in Latin America and Asia.

So where can we find such a reformist agenda for the EU?

Step forward Claude Juncker: all of the above are cut and pasted from his manifesto.

http://juncker.epp.eu/epp-manifesto

This is the comical thing about the whole situation. Juncker was pretty much the best candidate the Tories could possibly hope for. Cameron only went to war against him because he thought Merkel was going to knife him anyway, and wanted to take the credit.

Unfortunately as with World War I, starting for stupid reasons doesn't mean something will stop for sensible reasons. And the episode has revealed some things about the holes Cameron's strategy that are genuinely true, and would otherwise have been obvious only to insiders and political obsessives.

CarlottaVance

foxinsoxuk said:

So where can we find such a reformist agenda for the EU?

Step forward Claude Juncker: all of the above are cut and pasted from his manifesto.

http://juncker.epp.eu/epp-manifesto

You omitted a few bits:

- We want to boost Europe’s Foreign, Security and Defence capacities – enhancing its ability to act in the world and in cyberspace.

- . Yet we believe in a more politically integrated Eurozone, as we consider the euro to be a reliable currency that assures political stability and makes us more competitive internationally.

It's a classic Euro-fudge.....

foxinsoxuk

From Juncker: my priorities: Is he open to sensible negotiations on British membership of the EU?

A fifth and last priority for me as Commission President will be to give an answer to the British question. No reasonable politician can ignore the fact that, during the next five years, we will have to find solutions for the political concerns of the United Kingdom. We have to do this if we want to keep the UK within the European Union – which I would like to do as Commission President. As Commission President, I will work for a fair deal with Britain. A deal that accepts the specificities of the UK in the EU, while allowing the Eurozone to integrate further. The UK will need to understand that in the Eurozone, we need more Europe, not less. On the other hand, the other EU countries will have to accept that the UK will never participate in the euro, even if we may regret this. We have to accept that the UK will not become a member of the Schengen area. And I am also ready to accept that the UK will stay outside new EU institutions such as the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, meant to improve the fight against fraud in the EU, but clearly rejected by the House of Commons and the House of Lords. We have to respect such clear positions of the British Parliament, based on the British “opt out” Protocol. David Cameron has recently written down a number of further key demands in an article published in the Daily Telegraph. As Commission President, I will be ready to talk to him about these demands in a fair and reasonable manner. My red line in such talks would be the integrity of the single market and its four freedoms; and the possibility to have more Europe within the Eurozone to strengthen the single currency shared so far by 18 and soon by 19 Member States. But I have the impression that this is as important for Britain as it will be for the next President of the Commission. A deal that accepts the specificities of the UK in the EU.

http://juncker.epp.eu/my-priorities

It may be that Juncker does not have horns and a forked tail. If only our government had not done everything to poison an amicable retationship with him...

JackW

@foxinsoxuk

I might be open to BOO if Juncker can't manage a paragraph !!

foxinsoxuk

Of course I selectively cut and pasted, but feel free to read the priorities and manifesto that I linked to.

Juncker explicitly wants better Euro-area institutions, and a deal for the UK that excludes us from these in a semi-detached EU subgroup.

Sounds about right to me.

Vote sensible! Vote Juncker!

CarlottaVance said:

foxinsoxuk said:

So where can we find such a reformist agenda for the EU?

Step forward Claude Juncker: all of the above are cut and pasted from his manifesto.

http://juncker.epp.eu/epp-manifesto

You omitted a few bits:

- We want to boost Europe’s Foreign, Security and Defence capacities – enhancing its ability to act in the world and in cyberspace.

- . Yet we believe in a more politically integrated Eurozone, as we consider the euro to be a reliable currency that assures political stability and makes us more competitive internationally.

It's a classic Euro-fudge.....

SimonStClare

Good Lord - Godwin's Law invoked and it's not even 8 o'clock.

edmundintokyo

Just to rephrase my earlier question: Assume for the sake of argument that renegotiation isn't a thing. Would anyone here both:
1) Vote Conservative.
2) Vote to stay in the EU
?

CD13

On the EC, I'm still balanced precariously on the fence, but in the last few days, I've wobbled a bit No-wards. I know Cameron has only been posturing, but re-negotiation looks like only involve posturing too.

I'll vote Yes if there's financial benefit, but we'll never know the true financial facts when politicians are involved. I don't want to be in just to be a proud European; I'm British, and as we all know ... The British, the British, the British are best, I wouldn't give you tuppence for all of the rest.

Is Cameron a secret Ukip plant?

NorwichMike

foxinsoxuk said:

Of course I selectively cut and pasted, but feel free to read the priorities and manifesto that I linked to.

Juncker explicitly wants better Euro-area institutions, and a deal for the UK that excludes us from these in a semi-detached EU subgroup.

Sounds about right to me.

Vote sensible! Vote Juncker!

CarlottaVance said:

foxinsoxuk said:

So where can we find such a reformist agenda for the EU?

Step forward Claude Juncker: all of the above are cut and pasted from his manifesto.

http://juncker.epp.eu/epp-manifesto

You omitted a few bits:

- We want to boost Europe’s Foreign, Security and Defence capacities – enhancing its ability to act in the world and in cyberspace.

- . Yet we believe in a more politically integrated Eurozone, as we consider the euro to be a reliable currency that assures political stability and makes us more competitive internationally.

It's a classic Euro-fudge.....

The problem with this is precisely the idea of ever closer union within the euro area. Does anyone believe a two speed EU is feasible in the long term. The more they centralise, the more the UK will want to pull away and therefore the more we become marginalised in decision making.

Cameron would need to create a Europe that moves in the direction we want - and that extends across all of the institutions. Simply getting opt outs is just deferred exit.

CD13

Dr Fox,

Juncker's manifesto will obviously be in favour of motherhood and apple pie - he doesn't want to scare the horses. But his overall aim is fairly clearly .we march on and we ignore the stragglers.

Innocent_Abroad

SimonStClare said:

Good Lord - Godwin's Law invoked and it's not even 8 o'clock.

Indeed. And in a way most appropriately: when it comes to EU membership, Scottish independence (or almost anything to do with ethnicity, a pleasure Peebies still await) we tend to find: a majority - not a large one, say 3 out of 5 but a majority nonetheless - few if any of whose members are passionate on the issue, supporting the status quo opposed to a minority wanting change for not a few of whom the issue actually provides a reason for living.

This strikes me as a flaw in democracy.

Perhaps we should arrange to have half-a-dozen referenda at once, with each of us having as many "X's" as there are questions, but being allowed to place them on as few or as many of the questions as we liked.

The campaigning would be interesting...

RochdalePioneers

edmundintokyo said:

Just to rephrase my earlier question: Assume for the sake of argument that renegotiation isn't a thing. Would anyone here both:
1) Vote Conservative.
2) Vote to stay in the EU
?

Cameron! That's his position post renegotiation.

Except that Junkergate proves there will be no renegotiation. Cameron can no more do that than you or I - no power, no influence, no friends. The Tories can't continue to credibly promise a renegotiation as our European friends have no intention of entering into such a thing.

The kippers didn't believe Cameron's word on Europe anyway. Now they've seen he can't negoto even when he wants to. How the Tories react to the UKIP iceberg refusing to go home to the deep blue sea will be entertaining.

foxinsoxuk

The manifesto is not just Junckers, but that of the EPP.

It explicitly states in Priority 5, that a priority for the next five years is to reach an agreement with the UK on how it can remain in the EU, but outside an inner core Eurozone.

Hardly ignoring the stragglers! Indeed it seems to be very much along the lines of Camerons thinking (and do not forget that staying in under renegotiated terms is the preferred position of most Britons according to polling.)

CD13 said:

Dr Fox,

Juncker's manifesto will obviously be in favour of motherhood and apple pie - he doesn't want to scare the horses. But his overall aim is fairly clearly .we march on and we ignore the stragglers.

SouthamObserver

It would be easier to take Dave seriously on Europe if he told voters what his red lines are. Without him saying what these are recent events are really little more than posturing for domestic consumption: trying to look hard to impress UKIPers and failing (even though I am sure most agree that Juncker is a typical and unwelcome member of the self-selecting Euro-elite). But they surely make it harder for him to get through a GE campaign without stating what would lead him to recommend, and campaign for, a vote for withdrawal in 2017. Which would be interesting.

Financier

Some fair points DH, but

1. If EdM wins in 2015, forget all thoughts of a Referendum - too many Lab EU troughers to please and too much loving from the EU to enjoy and to boost EdM's ego - think of all the photo-opportunities of Ed as the saviour of the EU of British industry.

2. Junker's mainfesto was good PR to cover all bases (he even includes energy independence) but he has no chance in getting almost any of it past the EU self-serving bureaucrats - too many careers and lifestyles at risk as well as too many country interests to consider. His term will be over before he has even started. Only Russia turning off the gas taps would provoke any EU action.

3. French elections in 2017 - whilst le Pen may do well, Fraance will vote for one of the4 status quos.

4. The EU will ignore that it is bankrupt, over-priced on a global scale and that the majority of resources and industry and hence trade is moving very rapidly outside of the EU. Also the rest of the world's education, innovation and skill sets are being based external to the EU. Time to help form and join a new economic bloc.

saddened

MikeK said:

JackW said:

MikeK said:

@JackW this morning showing his true reactionary colours and anti democratic credentials.
He wants to stay tied to an increasingly anachronistic political union, because he's too frit for the UK to stand alone on own proverbial two legs.

The sort of Scot that would have welcomed Rudolf Hess in 1941. What an Arse!!!!!

1. I'm presently happy to stay within the Worlds largest trading bloc.

2. I welcome the surrender of Hess and the intelligence he brought with him.

3. I'm less enamoured of supporting UKIP, a party disproportionately full of various loons, racists, homophobes and misogynists.

On 2. You are the type of Scot that would have that would have been happy to work hand in glove with Nazi Germany. Sadly there were many English of the same desire. The so called loons and real racists are all on your side Jacko; not a straight back among you.

I like it when you post. You always manage to reinforce the kipper stereotype of bitter old men, who are total fruit loops. Keep up the good work.

Edin_Rokz

On one side, I'm laughing my backside off at those arguing to get out of the EU while keeping Scotland tied to Westminster, on the other, I can't actually see the UK leaving the EU.

What most of the old fogies on this site (and in the Westminster Bubble) forget is the internationalist outlook of the majority of the under 40's. They expect to be able to travel across the world and Europe in particular to work and play with out hassle.

Overseas holidays, stag, hen, school, wedding parties, weekend trips, pensioners living in France and Spain etc. etc., plus all those foreigners from the EU working, living and playing here are giving a new mix to our society.

Sorry peeps, just like the cabbies complaining about new technologies (Uber) or even the hatters marching to Westminster to demonstrate about the change in fashion from top hats, things and society change all the time. 20 years ago, most people did not have a mobile phone, nowadays, they are quite happy carrying and using a small computer to contact anyone on this planet (or even the space station) with a similar device.

david_herdson

foxinsoxuk said:

Dear DH,

A characteristically well argued piece:

But what do we want out of the EU in renegotiation?

How about:

1) The European Union must become stronger, simpler and more democratic. The European institutions should focus on specific major issues while leaving other matters to the Member States; we do not want a centralised Europe.

2) For us, more public spending is not the answer; we reject reckless spending of tax payers’ money. Fighting tax fraud, tax evasion and tax avoidance will also be one of our major priorities for the years to come.

3) We will tackle social fraud – social benefits for EU citizens should only be available if they have worked in the country where they live

4) We advocate prudence when it comes to further enlargements, but we want to create tight partnerships with the countries surrounding Europe, to create a prosperous, democratic and stable neighbourhood. We want to build a trustful transatlantic partnership while also strengthening our trade relations with countries in Latin America and Asia.

So where can we find such a reformist agenda for the EU?

Step forward Claude Juncker: all of the above are cut and pasted from his manifesto.

http://juncker.epp.eu/epp-manifesto

The speech I linked to is a good indication of what Cameron wants. What's notable is that he is not negotiating just for Britain to get 'opt-outs and repatriations' but for a different way of doing things in general within the EU. To recap, his five principles were:

- Competitiveness. Making the Single Market work and a leaner, less bureaucratic and less regulated Union.
- Flexibility. One size does not fit all and it should not be the aspiration of the EU to try to make it.
- Subsidiarity. It was agreed in principle; it's never been practiced in fact. It needs to be and the reasons why it need to be have to become part of the EU mindset.
- Democratic accountability.
- Fairness. Britain and others should not be sidelined from full participation in those parts of the EU they want to play a full part in simply because there are others that they don't.

What Cameron has rightly recognised is that it's not simply a question of fishing policy or the CAP which is the problem; it's the whole Union which is unpopular and he has put his finger equally rightly on why. Unless those reasons are fixed, the fundamental problem will remain and any argument to stay in would be either grudging or threatening: 'it's a long way from ideal but it's all there is' / 'we can't afford to be out, too much depends on it, despite the costs'. They're not compelling or inspiring arguments.

Since writing the leader piece, Merkel has made some positive noises about British concerns, as she has in the past. I remain unconvinced after the Juncker episode, as, I expect, will many others.

Socrates

JackW said:

MikeK said:

@JackW this morning showing his true reactionary colours and anti democratic credentials.
He wants to stay tied to an increasingly anachronistic political union, because he's too frit for the UK to stand alone on own proverbial two legs.

The sort of Scot that would have welcomed Rudolf Hess in 1941. What an Arse!!!!!

1. I'm presently happy to stay within the Worlds largest trading bloc.

It's fantastic to know you back my position of leaving the EU and then joining and staying in NAFTA.

SouthamObserver

RochdalePioneers said:

edmundintokyo said:

Just to rephrase my earlier question: Assume for the sake of argument that renegotiation isn't a thing. Would anyone here both:
1) Vote Conservative.
2) Vote to stay in the EU
?

Cameron! That's his position post renegotiation.

Except that Junkergate proves there will be no renegotiation. Cameron can no more do that than you or I - no power, no influence, no friends. The Tories can't continue to credibly promise a renegotiation as our European friends have no intention of entering into such a thing.

The kippers didn't believe Cameron's word on Europe anyway. Now they've seen he can't negoto even when he wants to. How the Tories react to the UKIP iceberg refusing to go home to the deep blue sea will be entertaining.

Dave knows he has no chance of any meaningful renegotiation, which is why he won't share his red lines with the voters or his party's MPs. To do so pre-GE would spark a civil war and consolidate the UKIP vote. A few inconsequential opt-outs on peripheral issues and the right to reduce British workers' employment protections and holiday entitlements are not going to unite the Euro-sceptic right.

Socrates

SouthamObserver said:

It would be easier to take Dave seriously on Europe if he told voters what his red lines are. Without him saying what these are recent events are really little more than posturing for domestic consumption: trying to look hard to impress UKIPers and failing (even though I am sure most agree that Juncker is a typical and unwelcome member of the self-selecting Euro-elite). But they surely make it harder for him to get through a GE campaign without stating what would lead him to recommend, and campaign for, a vote for withdrawal in 2017. Which would be interesting.

It's unreasonable before any negotiation for someone to announce what their absolute red lines are - that hands power to the other side. What is entirely reasonable - and probably necessary in a democracy - is that he says concretely what his aims are.

Socrates

@SouthamObserver

If Cameron doesn't make serious headway on free movement of labour (the biggest concern to the public), the Common Agricultural Policy (the biggest element of the EU budget) and the Common External Tariff (the policy most holding us back trading with the actually growing parts of the world), it will obviously have been a failed negotiation. He couldn't come back with a straight face and tell us he has achieved something significant.

AlastairMeeks

As Jean-Claude Juncker mentioned in his priorities statement, David Cameron listed seven negotiating points in an article in the Telegraph:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/10700644/David-Cameron-the-EU-is-not-working-and-we-will-change-it.html

The seventh was:

"And dealing properly with the concept of “ever closer union”, enshrined in the treaty, to which every EU country now has to sign up. It may appeal to some countries. But it is not right for Britain, and we must ensure we are no longer subject to it."

This was conceded yesterday:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28069366

"Mr Reinfeldt pointed to a document issued by EU leaders after the vote which accepts that the idea of an ever-closer union should not apply to all member states."

But no one is suggesting that this is remotely sufficient to meet British concerns, nor is it being presented as adequate compensation for the British defeat.

I'm beginning to wonder whether we're actually seeing some rather smart British diplomacy at work here. Defeat on what in many ways is a symbolic point and where the British had no better solution, pocketing a fairly important concession to a British point and all the while setting mood music that assumes many more substantial concessions will need to be given in future.

Alanbrooke

JackW said:

The YES to staying in the EU will win the 2017 EU Referendum and the result will be :

YES 60% .. No 40%

Moving on ....

I'd say that depends on the question.

If you ask for an instant withdrawal you're probably not too far off as the kippers haven't done the ground work

If you ask "do you want to move to ever closer union " I think it will be the 60-40 no. But the consequences will end up being the same as withdrawal.

Scott_P

antifrank said:

I'm beginning to wonder whether we're actually seeing some rather smart British diplomacy at work here. Defeat on what in many ways is a symbolic point and where the British had no better solution, pocketing a fairly important concession to a British point and all the while setting mood music that assumes many more substantial concessions will need to be given in future.

Conciliatory noises already

@BBCr4today: Swedish Prime Minister tells #r4today he is willing to 'walk the extra mile' to address David Cameron's concerns over the EU

Sean_F

Edin_Rokz said:

On one side, I'm laughing my backside off at those arguing to get out of the EU while keeping Scotland tied to Westminster, on the other, I can't actually see the UK leaving the EU.

What most of the old fogies on this site (and in the Westminster Bubble) forget is the internationalist outlook of the majority of the under 40's. They expect to be able to travel across the world and Europe in particular to work and play with out hassle.

Overseas holidays, stag, hen, school, wedding parties, weekend trips, pensioners living in France and Spain etc. etc., plus all those foreigners from the EU working, living and playing here are giving a new mix to our society.

Sorry peeps, just like the cabbies complaining about new technologies (Uber) or even the hatters marching to Westminster to demonstrate about the change in fashion from top hats, things and society change all the time. 20 years ago, most people did not have a mobile phone, nowadays, they are quite happy carrying and using a small computer to contact anyone on this planet (or even the space station) with a similar device.

I've never really understood the argument that the only political opinions that count are those of people aged under 40. A very large majority of people who regularly vote are aged over 40.

SouthamObserver

Socrates said:

@SouthamObserver

If Cameron doesn't make serious headway on free movement of labour (the biggest concern to the public), the Common Agricultural Policy (the biggest element of the EU budget) and the Common External Tariff (the policy most holding us back trading with the actually growing parts of the world), it will obviously have been a failed negotiation. He couldn't come back with a straight face and tell us he has achieved something significant.

He knows he can do nothing serious about any of them. His whole strategy has been based on holding the Tory line until after the GE. He then hopes to "renegotiate" a deal and sell it to voters over the heads of his Eurosceptic right. Farage and UKIP are bang on the money about this.where they fall down, though, is on the referendum itself. It is inconceivable to me that Cameron will not deliver one.

Alanbrooke

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

JackW said:

The YES to staying in the EU will win the 2017 EU Referendum and the result will be :

YES 60% .. No 40%

Moving on ....

What if the government recommends No?

I'm not expecting a UKIP government and neither are you.

And unless the Conservatives suddenly discover they left all their brains in Bournemouth neither will they.

A party that considers itself to be the party of business and economic competence determining to leave the EU will require a period in opposition to gather their wits again.

there's a big difference between what they consider themselves to be and what they actually are. There's nothing substantially pro-business in the current Tories.

Easterross

Morning all and excellent piece as always David. I have always considered a better in and fighting for change to be the preferred stance on the EU. However the arrogance of Herr Juncker and chums is such that I am rapidly moving to the "time to leave" camp.

The only hope in the long run for the EU will be an organisation with 2 concentric circles. The inner circle of Euro members who form a virtually United States of Europe and then an outer circle which includes countries like the UK, Denmark etc who want only to share trade agreements with the inner core. I suppose in the EU and EEA/EFTA we already have that so perhaps time for Cameron to start promoting the benefits of EFTA outside the EU.

However I do wonder how our so called EU partners will feel if they realise we aren't kidding and the 2nd biggest paymaster after Germany might just turn off the money tap!

CarlottaVance

antifrank said:

I'm beginning to wonder whether we're actually seeing some rather smart British diplomacy at work here. Defeat on what in many ways is a symbolic point and where the British had no better solution, pocketing a fairly important concession to a British point and all the while setting mood music that assumes many more substantial concessions will need to be given in future.

If it is, expect the French to start complaining by Tuesday.......

david_herdson

edmundintokyo said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Dear DH,

A characteristically well argued piece:

But what do we want out of the EU in renegotiation?

How about:

1) The European Union must become stronger, simpler and more democratic. The European institutions should focus on specific major issues while leaving other matters to the Member States; we do not want a centralised Europe.

2) For us, more public spending is not the answer; we reject reckless spending of tax payers’ money. Fighting tax fraud, tax evasion and tax avoidance will also be one of our major priorities for the years to come.

3) We will tackle social fraud – social benefits for EU citizens should only be available if they have worked in the country where they live

4) We advocate prudence when it comes to further enlargements, but we want to create tight partnerships with the countries surrounding Europe, to create a prosperous, democratic and stable neighbourhood. We want to build a trustful transatlantic partnership while also strengthening our trade relations with countries in Latin America and Asia.

So where can we find such a reformist agenda for the EU?

Step forward Claude Juncker: all of the above are cut and pasted from his manifesto.

http://juncker.epp.eu/epp-manifesto

This is the comical thing about the whole situation. Juncker was pretty much the best candidate the Tories could possibly hope for. Cameron only went to war against him because he thought Merkel was going to knife him anyway, and wanted to take the credit.

Unfortunately as with World War I, starting for stupid reasons doesn't mean something will stop for sensible reasons. And the episode has revealed some things about the holes Cameron's strategy that are genuinely true, and would otherwise have been obvious only to insiders and political obsessives.

I disagree that Juncker was the best candidate the Tories could hope for. To put it in European parliament terms, Juncker is the status quo EPP-Socialist candidate, those two party groups having 412 out of the 751 seats. Even so, while Juncker was the pre-election EPP candidate, the EPP did not win outright and indeed went backwards quite significantly. In national elections, it wouldn't be unusual for a party leader to step aside in such circumstances as part of coalition negotiations. It may well have been possible for someone to have been found that would have been more of the EPP-ECR-ALDE view.

As an aside, there was a lot of sniping when Cameron withdrew the Tories from the EPP, claiming he wouldn't even be able to form a new group. The ECR is now the third largest group in the EP.

CarlottaVance

Good article by Michael White from the beginning of the week on Juncker:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2014/jun/23/europe-shrinking-juncker-symbol-parochialism-eu-european-commission

SouthamObserver

Scott_P said:

antifrank said:

I'm beginning to wonder whether we're actually seeing some rather smart British diplomacy at work here. Defeat on what in many ways is a symbolic point and where the British had no better solution, pocketing a fairly important concession to a British point and all the while setting mood music that assumes many more substantial concessions will need to be given in future.

Conciliatory noises already

@BBCr4today: Swedish Prime Minister tells #r4today he is willing to 'walk the extra mile' to address David Cameron's concerns over the EU

There is no doubt Cameron will win some concessions. It's what they are that matters. A British opt out on ever-greater union is not the same thing as dealing with the consequences of the existing union and, in particular, free movement of people.

HYUFD

According to this cross EU poll while 44% across the EU 27 want an EU Federation, with 35% opposed, in the UK it is 26% in favour and 50% against, and in Sweden an even stronger 20% in favour and 72% against and in Denmark 18% in favour and 76% against.
http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb79/eb79_publ_en.pdf

This is why ultimately I think the UK will join an outer tier of non Eurozone nations like Sweden and Denmark and a few Eastern European nations like Hungary, the only nation to back Cameron yesterday, in a block based on trade without joining Norway and Switzerland completely outside the EU. The Eurozone nations will continue to move towards a more federal Europe

david_herdson

Innocent_Abroad said:

SimonStClare said:

Good Lord - Godwin's Law invoked and it's not even 8 o'clock.

Indeed. And in a way most appropriately: when it comes to EU membership, Scottish independence (or almost anything to do with ethnicity, a pleasure Peebies still await) we tend to find: a majority - not a large one, say 3 out of 5 but a majority nonetheless - few if any of whose members are passionate on the issue, supporting the status quo opposed to a minority wanting change for not a few of whom the issue actually provides a reason for living.

This strikes me as a flaw in democracy.

Perhaps we should arrange to have half-a-dozen referenda at once, with each of us having as many "X's" as there are questions, but being allowed to place them on as few or as many of the questions as we liked.

The campaigning would be interesting...

Too complicated. Just give people one vote; they get to ask for the referendum ballot paper of their choice.

CarlottaVance

Easterross said:

However I do wonder how our so called EU partners will feel if they realise we aren't kidding and the 2nd biggest paymaster after Germany might just turn off the money tap!

I saw a German journalist interviewed on the news last night who argued that the debate on the EU is further along in the UK than in Germany.....where the consequences of "more Europe" in the Euro zone - and crucially, who will pay for it - has not really been discussed - because politicians know German voters won't stomach the answer.......

Socrates

Sean_F said:

Edin_Rokz said:

On one side, I'm laughing my backside off at those arguing to get out of the EU while keeping Scotland tied to Westminster, on the other, I can't actually see the UK leaving the EU.

What most of the old fogies on this site (and in the Westminster Bubble) forget is the internationalist outlook of the majority of the under 40's. They expect to be able to travel across the world and Europe in particular to work and play with out hassle.

Overseas holidays, stag, hen, school, wedding parties, weekend trips, pensioners living in France and Spain etc. etc., plus all those foreigners from the EU working, living and playing here are giving a new mix to our society.

Sorry peeps, just like the cabbies complaining about new technologies (Uber) or even the hatters marching to Westminster to demonstrate about the change in fashion from top hats, things and society change all the time. 20 years ago, most people did not have a mobile phone, nowadays, they are quite happy carrying and using a small computer to contact anyone on this planet (or even the space station) with a similar device.

I've never really understood the argument that the only political opinions that count are those of people aged under 40. A very large majority of people who regularly vote are aged over 40.

I've also never understood the claim that a closed trading bloc with the most declining part of the world economy is somehow "internationalist".

Socrates

Scott_P said:

antifrank said:

I'm beginning to wonder whether we're actually seeing some rather smart British diplomacy at work here. Defeat on what in many ways is a symbolic point and where the British had no better solution, pocketing a fairly important concession to a British point and all the while setting mood music that assumes many more substantial concessions will need to be given in future.

Conciliatory noises already

@BBCr4today: Swedish Prime Minister tells #r4today he is willing to 'walk the extra mile' to address David Cameron's concerns over the EU

This is the guy that promised to oppose Juncker and then was quickly bought off? The one that's behind in the opinion polls and will be out of office by the end of the year as the more Europhile socialists come in?

CD13

The majority view is probably for staying in, but with reform. Overall, we like the trading opportunities but in general, there's a fear of "mission creep" , which has been a consistent feature.

If Cameron's re-negotiation consists of a few baubles and just a slowing down of "mission creep", he may struggle to sell it,

Alanbrooke

HYUFD said:

According to this cross EU poll while 44% across the EU 27 want an EU Federation, with 35% opposed, in the UK it is 26% in favour and 50% against, and in Sweden an even stronger 20% in favour and 72% against and in Denmark 18% in favour and 76% against.
http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb79/eb79_publ_en.pdf

This is why ultimately I think the UK will join an outer tier of non Eurozone nations like Sweden and Denmark and a few Eastern European nations like Hungary, the only nation to back Cameron yesterday, in a block based on trade without joining Norway and Switzerland completely outside the EU. The Eurozone nations will continue to move towards a more federal Europe

It remains a puzzle why Luxembourg which is hyper federalist, just doesn't abolish itself and merge with one of its neighbours. Much more communautaire, but strangely they won't do it.

MikeK

The true Cammo line:

pic.twitter.com/baqdQrBq8m

— David Icke (@davidicke) June 28, 2014

SouthamObserver

CarlottaVance said:

antifrank said:

I'm beginning to wonder whether we're actually seeing some rather smart British diplomacy at work here. Defeat on what in many ways is a symbolic point and where the British had no better solution, pocketing a fairly important concession to a British point and all the while setting mood music that assumes many more substantial concessions will need to be given in future.

If it is, expect the French to start complaining by Tuesday.......

And therein lies the problem: fundamental change requires unanimous support. The eastern European member states would have to agree to controls on their citizens' free movement; the French and the southern Europeans would have to agree fundamental CAP reform; and so on. It's not going to happen.

Socrates

CD13 said:

The majority view is probably for staying in, but with reform. Overall, we like the trading opportunities but in general, there's a fear of "mission creep" , which has been a consistent feature.

If Cameron's re-negotiation consists of a few baubles and just a slowing down of "mission creep", he may struggle to sell it,

"In with reform" has been the argument for staying in for the last 40 years. You do wonder when people will face reality enough to stop believing in it. Most believers in Father Christmas give it up after just a decade.

Innocent_Abroad

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

According to this cross EU poll while 44% across the EU 27 want an EU Federation, with 35% opposed, in the UK it is 26% in favour and 50% against, and in Sweden an even stronger 20% in favour and 72% against and in Denmark 18% in favour and 76% against.
http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb79/eb79_publ_en.pdf

This is why ultimately I think the UK will join an outer tier of non Eurozone nations like Sweden and Denmark and a few Eastern European nations like Hungary, the only nation to back Cameron yesterday, in a block based on trade without joining Norway and Switzerland completely outside the EU. The Eurozone nations will continue to move towards a more federal Europe

It remains a puzzle why Luxembourg which is hyper federalist, just doesn't abolish itself and merge with one of its neighbours. Much more communautaire, but strangely they won't do it.

Don't be a clown. You know very well why they don't do it.

Socrates

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

antifrank said:

I'm beginning to wonder whether we're actually seeing some rather smart British diplomacy at work here. Defeat on what in many ways is a symbolic point and where the British had no better solution, pocketing a fairly important concession to a British point and all the while setting mood music that assumes many more substantial concessions will need to be given in future.

If it is, expect the French to start complaining by Tuesday.......

And therein lies the problem: fundamental change requires unanimous support. The eastern European member states would have to agree to controls on their citizens' free movement; the French and the southern Europeans would have to agree fundamental CAP reform; and so on. It's not going to happen.

I believe the Parliament would have to agree to, and as we've seen, they pretty much hate our guts at this point.

david_herdson

RochdalePioneers said:

edmundintokyo said:

Just to rephrase my earlier question: Assume for the sake of argument that renegotiation isn't a thing. Would anyone here both:
1) Vote Conservative.
2) Vote to stay in the EU
?

Cameron! That's his position post renegotiation.

Except that Junkergate proves there will be no renegotiation. Cameron can no more do that than you or I - no power, no influence, no friends. The Tories can't continue to credibly promise a renegotiation as our European friends have no intention of entering into such a thing.

The kippers didn't believe Cameron's word on Europe anyway. Now they've seen he can't negoto even when he wants to. How the Tories react to the UKIP iceberg refusing to go home to the deep blue sea will be entertaining.

It would be necessary to negotiate irrespective of the possibility of getting what he wanted, or even close to what he wanted. Doing so would prove things one way or the other. It will be impossible to recommend a No without having tried and failed to reform; similarly, it will be impossible to recommend a Yes either.

Alanbrooke

MikeK said:

The true Cammo line:

pic.twitter.com/baqdQrBq8m

— David Icke (@davidicke) June 28, 2014

Yet more bizarre Cameron enfatuation. Is it sexual ?

Socrates

MikeK said:

The true Cammo line:

pic.twitter.com/baqdQrBq8m

— David Icke (@davidicke) June 28, 2014

You don't do your credibility any favours by backing David Icke.

CarlottaVance

Juncker was the author of that notorious comment:

We heads of government all know what to do, we just don't know how to get reelected when we do it.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/spiegel-interview-with-luxembourg-prime-minister-juncker-a-888021.html

HYUFD

Socrates The Tories block, the ECR, has just overtaken the Liberals to become the 3rd largest group in the Parliament, add in UKIP's EFD group, Front National and the ruling party of Hungary which is still in the EPP and the Labour MEPs in the social democrats and the Greens who are also sceptical of Juncker and this new European Parliament has a sizeable Eurosceptic block of at least a 1/3 of MEPs

SouthamObserver

CD13 said:

The majority view is probably for staying in, but with reform. Overall, we like the trading opportunities but in general, there's a fear of "mission creep" , which has been a consistent feature.

If Cameron's re-negotiation consists of a few baubles and just a slowing down of "mission creep", he may struggle to sell it,

The referendum would come down to whether the overall pros outweigh the overall cons - what Cameron gets would be a side issue.

HYUFD

Alanbrooke Luxembourg has the largest GDP per capita in the EU, if not the world, and one almost 3 times that of the UK, based on finance and wealthy tax exiles in Luxembourg City

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Morning all,
Who would actually undertake these renegotiations?
Our officials are all europhiles and I wouldn't trust them one iota.
Wasn't Maggie once assured by our officials that the phrase 'ever closer union' was just some words and didn't really mean anything?

FluffyThoughts

The justification from Juncker and his allies is a simple one: his party group won the election and therefore as their nominee, he has the right to the job.

Herdie: I always Capitalise after a colon; semi-colons are more flexible. But to return to the topic-of-conversation....

This is a "known-known": England is carrying too much burden for the failed WWII nations. If you add in Commonwealth-guilt & Celtic subsidies then we are paying about 3% of our national income* in DaneGeld to these defeated nations.

Once England leaves the EU that income-stream will be dammed. [Sic]. On the anniversary of 'Gabbie Princips' Marxist attack on Europe and Her Imperial ambitions** (including subjugating the "Island Monkies"***) it is about time we lost our guilt and move forward; expeditionary-like innit!

* Overseas Development ~ 0.7%; EU ~0.7%; Celtic fringes make up a similar amount (including the faux Cornish).
** Sadly, we English become overstretched in the Boer War. The Dutch are not trustworthy: I used to live in Generaal Boothastraat in Tonglre....
*** Dutch phrase (according to my mate from the 45W/SBS).

HYUFD

Carlotta According to the latest German polls, the AfD, on 6%, has overtaken the FDP on about 3-4%, and is set to enter the Bundestag, creating a permanent problem for a Europhile CDU

Alanbrooke

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke Luxembourg has the largest GDP per capita in the EU, if not the world, and one almost 3 times that of the UK, based on finance and wealthy tax exiles in Luxembourg City

yes indeed, it's a tidy tax haven for Germans, abolish it and it goes back to being a a big farmers market, so how will it survive eventual union ?

HYUFD

Socrates Swedes according to the poll I posted earlier are even more Eurosceptic than Brits, the anti EU Swedish Democrats are on 12.5% in the latest poll, roughly the same level as UKIP

SouthamObserver

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Morning all,
Who would actually undertake these renegotiations?
Our officials are all europhiles and I wouldn't trust them one iota.
Wasn't Maggie once assured by our officials that the phrase 'ever closer union' was just some words and didn't really mean anything?

It doesn't really matter. Dave will get some concessions and will then frame the referendum around the issue of whether, overall, it is in the UK's interests to be an EU member state or not. It's pretty clear that he believes it is. Juncker's appointment does not change the economic fundamentals, but it does make the politics harder.

foxinsoxuk

I think that statement is astonishingly honest, but all it really means is that "politics is the art of the possible".

Democratic politicians of all stripes and all nations know that some of the things that they want doing are things that the electorate will struggle to accept.

Take welfare reform for example, everyone agrees it is needed in order to make the welfare state sustainable with an ageing population and other demographic change, but all know that the losers will shriek loudly and obstruct change as far as possible (Spare room subsidy? universal child benefit?), so while travel can be in one direction it has to be at a tolerable pace.

CarlottaVance said:

Juncker was the author of that notorious comment:

We heads of government all know what to do, we just don't know how to get reelected when we do it.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/spiegel-interview-with-luxembourg-prime-minister-juncker-a-888021.html

david_kendrick1

I agree with DH's sentiment---Junker's success is good for Cameron.

Now DC has not far to go to change tack.

'This episode demonstrates that the direction of travel has not changed. Rather than analysing and arguing about the detail of the concessions Britain requires and needs, it is now up to the EU to prove that they are prepared to alter course. If they are unwilling to do so, I will be campaigning for a Brexit in 2017'.

A populist approach which would be politically deft, and economically canny.

MikeK

Socrates said:

MikeK said:

The true Cammo line:

pic.twitter.com/baqdQrBq8m

— David Icke (@davidicke) June 28, 2014

You don't do your credibility any favours by backing David Icke.

I'm not backing Icke and have nothing to do with him. I am merely laughing at the cartoon. Do come down to earth.

CD13

I'd expect the under-40s to be more pro-Europe. Apart from the natural liking for change ('everything is possible' changes its meaning as you get older), they will not remember the assorted assurances in the 1970s about the final objective. A trading bloc to rival the USA, not a political union.

Some of the older ones feel they were sold a pig in a poke, despite the protestations they should have known what was intended. So the complaint that we didn't know can be met with "Ah well-l-l, ye ken the noo," (as the Scots would probably not say).

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

Carlotta According to the latest German polls, the AfD, on 6%, has overtaken the FDP on about 3-4%, and is set to enter the Bundestag, creating a permanent problem for a Europhile CDU

A couple of years ago German polls regularly had the Pirate Party on 10% plus. There's no German GE for another three and a bit years, is there?

TwistedFireStopper

Ot,
Has anybody got any experience of EE 4g wifi home broadband? We live in a village with poor broadband connectivity, due to an antiquated exchange, none of the broadband suppliers can ever supply us with anything like their advertised speeds.
EE have offered me 4g wireless (mobile, really) broadband for 25 quid a month, but with a 20GB download cap.
A) Is it any good
I'm not convinced 20gb cap would be enough.

HYUFD

Alanbrooke Something that may not be an issue for farmers in rural Luxembourg, but may start to raise concerns in the City

HYUFD

SO No, but the AFD's rise has been consistent now, they almost overtook the FDP in the last election, and did so in the Euros winning 7 MEPs, a lot of Germans are furious with the bailouts their euro membership has forced on them, they will not go away

JackW

MODERATOR.

I ask that @MikeK withdraw his remarks down thread @ 0738am and apologize unreservedly and give an undertaking not to repeat them.

Please also delete his post.

Thank you.

Charles

JohnO said:

Sean_F said:

edmundintokyo said:

The renegotiation was always bullshit. You can tell by the fact that Cameron was so vague about what he wanted, and the plank of what he did say he wanted wasn't even something the EU was responsible for. Had it been an actual thing Juncker would have been helpful: An experienced conservative fixer able to handle these incredibly complex negotiations. But it was never an actual thing.

So now we've got the bogus middle way out of the way, where do the Tories stand? Is everybody BOO, or are there still some people who want in? If there are, will they dare to say so?

I think it's a good thing to have such clarity. We have to choose between leaving, or ever closer union. The middle way, as you say, doesn't exist.

Vernon Bogdanor has said that Cameron can't repeat Wilson's trick of coming back from Brussels with a mouse, and calling it an elephant. Now it looks as though he won't even be returning with a mouse.

All the more reason to vote Conservative in 2015 (which, to be fair, you personally will be doing) as the referendum for the present at least looks like being won by No.

FWIW - Like anti-frank and Richard Nabavi, the miserable, wretched charade over the last few weeks is also shifting me to UK exit.

I'm increasingly with you, having been on the fence.

It's becoming increasingly clear, from this and the FTT (regardless of the merits or otherwise of the case, it was basically an attempt by the other EU countries to tax a UK-based industry) that the direction of travel is deleterious to the UK's national interests

SouthamObserver

TwistedFireStopper said:

Ot,
Has anybody got any experience of EE 4g wifi home broadband? We live in a village with poor broadband connectivity, due to an antiquated exchange, none of the broadband suppliers can ever supply us with anything like their advertised speeds.
EE have offered me 4g wireless (mobile, really) broadband for 25 quid a month, but with a 20GB download cap.
A) Is it any good
I'm not convinced 20gb cap would be enough.

I have found EE to be generally unimpressive. The 4G i am supposed to get from them on my mobile is very erratic. Obviously it may be different from a relatively fixed spot, but I'd counsel caution.

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

A typically sympathetic analysis from the Mail:

Alex Salmond’s top advisers have held a crisis summit on their referendum campaign as panic sweeps through the Scottish Government.

The Scottish Daily Mail can reveal that civil servants were ordered to raid the public purse and launch an unprecedented advertising blitz in a desperate bid to close the gap on the No campaign.

Mr Salmond’s most senior political aides, the Scottish Government’s top mandarins and heads of the communications department attended the emergency meeting on Thursday, which was convened in less than 24 hours.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2672882/Splash-cash-SNP-crisis-summit-orders-launch-huge-taxpayer-funded-publicity-blitz-Yes-campaign-support-plummets.html#ixzz35uUCHOmD


Looks like the Scottish govt is going to do what Westminster has done already......

Baa Baa, you are easily led

Alanbrooke

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke Something that may not be an issue for farmers in rural Luxembourg, but may start to raise concerns in the City

Nah our City boys can always find other no questions asked micro states to stuff their cash in to. It's why the City is such a success.

surbiton

Britain will not exit from the EU - now or later.

Charles

JackW said:

JohnO said:

Sean_F said:

edmundintokyo said:

The renegotiation was always bullshit. You can tell by the fact that Cameron was so vague about what he wanted, and the plank of what he did say he wanted wasn't even something the EU was responsible for. Had it been an actual thing Juncker would have been helpful: An experienced conservative fixer able to handle these incredibly complex negotiations. But it was never an actual thing.

So now we've got the bogus middle way out of the way, where do the Tories stand? Is everybody BOO, or are there still some people who want in? If there are, will they dare to say so?

I think it's a good thing to have such clarity. We have to choose between leaving, or ever closer union. The middle way, as you say, doesn't exist.

Vernon Bogdanor has said that Cameron can't repeat Wilson's trick of coming back from Brussels with a mouse, and calling it an elephant. Now it looks as though he won't even be returning with a mouse.

All the more reason to vote Conservative in 2015 (which, to be fair, you personally will be doing) as the referendum for the present at least looks like being won by No.

FWIW - Like anti-frank and Richard Nabavi, the miserable, wretched charade over the last few weeks is also shifting me to UK exit.

I always wonder how far BOO want to tow the UK out into the Atlantic whilst furiously waving their Union flags at Continental Europe ?

And crocodile tears fall down the cheeks of Jonny Foreigner as they wave their hankies at us whilst taking all our inward investment and advising us we have to obey all the EU rules to trade in any case.

As an economic plan it has all the paw marks of those dynamic wonders in the Labour but it appears that Conservative aren't immune to F*cktheeconomytis.

Jack, I know your views have been formed by several world wars, but the scaremongering about leaving the EU is just BS.

If you look at "Business" basically the CBI - representing the corporatist multinationals - wants to stay in, while the IoD - representing the UK based SMEs - is much more sceptical.

Can I recommend you look at some of the work these guys have been doing? www.businessforbritain.org
http://businessforbritain.org/

malcolmg

saddened said:

MikeK said:

JackW said:

MikeK said:

@JackW this morning showing his true reactionary colours and anti democratic credentials.
He wants to stay tied to an increasingly anachronistic political union, because he's too frit for the UK to stand alone on own proverbial two legs.

The sort of Scot that would have welcomed Rudolf Hess in 1941. What an Arse!!!!!

1. I'm presently happy to stay within the Worlds largest trading bloc.

2. I welcome the surrender of Hess and the intelligence he brought with him.

3. I'm less enamoured of supporting UKIP, a party disproportionately full of various loons, racists, homophobes and misogynists.

On 2. You are the type of Scot that would have that would have been happy to work hand in glove with Nazi Germany. Sadly there were many English of the same desire. The so called loons and real racists are all on your side Jacko; not a straight back among you.

I like it when you post. You always manage to reinforce the kipper stereotype of bitter old men, who are total fruit loops. Keep up the good work.

I note it is your usual insults, could you ever post anything other than insults Saddo

HYUFD

Alanbrooke I meant the Financiers in Luxembourg City may be concerned, not the City of London, anyway got to head off

FalseFlag

Sean_F said:

Edin_Rokz said:

On one side, I'm laughing my backside off at those arguing to get out of the EU while keeping Scotland tied to Westminster, on the other, I can't actually see the UK leaving the EU.

What most of the old fogies on this site (and in the Westminster Bubble) forget is the internationalist outlook of the majority of the under 40's. They expect to be able to travel across the world and Europe in particular to work and play with out hassle.

Overseas holidays, stag, hen, school, wedding parties, weekend trips, pensioners living in France and Spain etc. etc., plus all those foreigners from the EU working, living and playing here are giving a new mix to our society.

Sorry peeps, just like the cabbies complaining about new technologies (Uber) or even the hatters marching to Westminster to demonstrate about the change in fashion from top hats, things and society change all the time. 20 years ago, most people did not have a mobile phone, nowadays, they are quite happy carrying and using a small computer to contact anyone on this planet (or even the space station) with a similar device.

I've never really understood the argument that the only political opinions that count are those of people aged under 40. A very large majority of people who regularly vote are aged over 40.

The left's simplistic arguments work better on less developed minds. Historically wisdom was seen as coming with age.

Anyway I am under 40 and this is not my experience, we live with the consequences in the jobs and housing market. The EU is ultimately a very post war idea, outdated.

I seem to remember polling a few years back showing younger people were more anti EU, post Thatcher we knew we can stand on our own two feet.

murali_s

surbiton said:

Britain will not exit from the EU - now or later.

Agreed - not going to happen anytime soon.

Even Cameron, despite his humiliation, wouldn't want this.

SouthamObserver

JackW said:

MODERATOR.

I ask that @MikeK withdraw his remarks down thread @ 0738am and apologize unreservedly and give an undertaking not to repeat them.

Please also delete his post.

Thank you.

If it were me I'd want that comment preserved for all to see, highlighted even. It says nothing about the person it was aimed at, but plenty about the person who wrote it.

taffys

I read this morning that Europe's voters probably agree with Dave more than they do their own leaders....

Perhaps the cons should start running candidates on the continent!!!!

surbiton

SouthamObserver said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Morning all,
Who would actually undertake these renegotiations?
Our officials are all europhiles and I wouldn't trust them one iota.
Wasn't Maggie once assured by our officials that the phrase 'ever closer union' was just some words and didn't really mean anything?

It doesn't really matter. Dave will get some concessions and will then frame the referendum around the issue of whether, overall, it is in the UK's interests to be an EU member state or not. It's pretty clear that he believes it is. Juncker's appointment does not change the economic fundamentals, but it does make the politics harder.

Dave will do a Harold Wilson and then 50% of the Tory Party, 90% of the Labour Party and 100% of the Lib Dems will support to stay in and UKIP will vote to leave.

Result: 2 -1 to stya in.

malcolmg

Scott_P said:

antifrank said:

I'm beginning to wonder whether we're actually seeing some rather smart British diplomacy at work here. Defeat on what in many ways is a symbolic point and where the British had no better solution, pocketing a fairly important concession to a British point and all the while setting mood music that assumes many more substantial concessions will need to be given in future.

Conciliatory noises already

@BBCr4today: Swedish Prime Minister tells #r4today he is willing to 'walk the extra mile' to address David Cameron's concerns over the EU

Fools are easily fooled.

Alanbrooke

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke I meant the Financiers in Luxembourg City may be concerned, not the City of London, anyway got to head off

In that case we'll have a lot of Luxemburgers moving to the City, buy property in London :-)

malcolmg

Easterross said:

Morning all and excellent piece as always David. I have always considered a better in and fighting for change to be the preferred stance on the EU. However the arrogance of Herr Juncker and chums is such that I am rapidly moving to the "time to leave" camp.

The only hope in the long run for the EU will be an organisation with 2 concentric circles. The inner circle of Euro members who form a virtually United States of Europe and then an outer circle which includes countries like the UK, Denmark etc who want only to share trade agreements with the inner core. I suppose in the EU and EEA/EFTA we already have that so perhaps time for Cameron to start promoting the benefits of EFTA outside the EU.

However I do wonder how our so called EU partners will feel if they realise we aren't kidding and the 2nd biggest paymaster after Germany might just turn off the money tap!

Easterross, It will be NO to leaving in an Independent Scotland.