Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why UKIP could be heading for a general election share in t

124»

Comments

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I have Boston as one of those seats that UKIP can definitely win in 2015, Castle Point is the other.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited June 2014

    The ones delivering the substance in this coalition government are doing so almost entirely autonomously from No.10.

    Yes, good, isn't it? That is exactly how it should work: appoint good ministers, and give them the time and backing to get things done. It is one of the best things about Cameron, and why he is such a good PM. The contrast with Blair - who micro-managed everything from his sofa, swapping ministers (with the unfortunate exception of Gordon Brown) around every five minutes presumbly with the deliberate intention of ensuring they could never master their briefs - is telling.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @Flightpath

    "Powers flowing away from Brussels, not always to it."

    If that's what Cameron considers "specific", it just reveals how much of a wooly PR man he is.

    I was flicking through Dan Hannan's recent comments today, and this lengthy one is one of the finest political columns I have read:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100277239/the-last-post-in-europe/

    His whole argument is well-crafted, insightful and accurate. One point I hadn't appreciated was that the EU has abandoned its free trade deal with India, due to be the third largest economy in the world by 2030. Meanwhile EFTA is racing towards finishing one.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    It is having exactly that sort of commentariat that will ensure Breitbart fails.

    Quite. It's an unpleasant, reactionary, Islamophobic echo-chamber.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited June 2014

    But there isn't anything in particular that he's been pressing for on a consistent basis, so the "allies" feel there isn't anything to engage with.

    If you or our EU friends think that, then you haven't been paying attention. Here's a reasonable non-partisan assessment of what he is pressing for and why he has chosen the tactics he has:

    http://www.policyreview.eu/camerons-eu-reform-agenda-laid-bare/
    We know exactly what our EU allies think:

    “For the Polish government to agree, someone will have to give us some mountain of gold. The Brits won’t give it to us, and the Germans, in order to keep the Brits on board, won’t give it to us either in all likelihood. So the answer will be: f*** off..."

    "Donald called him at once to discuss it, he had such a go at him, I mean f*** it’s a shame we didn't record it, he had a such a proper f****** go at him.”

    http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/leaked-tapes-shed-light-on-difficult.html
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Socrates said:

    @AveryLP

    So can you please tell me what the balance of competences review found on the CAP or the common external tariff? Did it find they were a net cost or a net benefit?

    Part of Semester 3 (Report no. 21). Still calling for and taking evidence. Report due for publication by "summer 2014". Would guess September is a working deadline.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,690
    AveryLP said:



    blockquote>

    In 2012, the Foreign Office launched a formal process, "The Review of the Balance of the EU's Competences". Its scope and timetable is set out here: https://www.gov.uk/review-of-the-balance-of-competences.

    This audit is now nearly three quarters completed and interim documents are available from the FCO (and departmental) websites.

    The European branch of the FCO has also been thoroughly engaged in "going round all of the EU negotiating; building support; identifying blockers and ways to overcome them; doing deals; and/or laying the groundwork for them".

    It is this highly evangelical, detailed, focussed and systematic process being followed by the UK which is frightening the EU mandarins. Their response is to try to isolate the UK before its programme for reform starts 'polluting' the attitudes and actions of other countries to the EU.

    The Juncker debate has captured the media's attention and is being visibly led by the Prime Minister but this does not mean that Cameron's involvement is purely spontaneous and impulsive. Yes, the visibility bit is partly driven by PR needs but the whole campaign is founded on a clear if not yet fully disclosed strategy. And that strategy is first and foremost to carry out a wide ranging audit and consultation exercise upon which clear policy can be developed.

    You do Cameron much injustice.

    I recognise the coalition government initiated a review of the balance of competences of the EU and 'called for evidence'.

    I do not recognise that they have a shopping list for repatriation. On those completed reports, at best, they just summarise the feedback and list general future challenges and options. Where there are conclusions, there are some remarkably pre-emptively europhile ones that seem to start from where current government policy is already at (rather than the other way round) and then shape the conclusions accordingly.

    From the single market report - and this is after the much longer 'Where would the UK gain from the EU doing more?' section:

    "Where would the UK gain from the EU doing less?

    "4.24 The Single Market is one of the areas where the “bicycle theory” of EU politics, i.e. that forward movement is necessary to keep things on track, seems to apply most clearly."

    "...So a decision to do less in this area could be a decision to weaken the depth of integration over time. It is hard to see how that could be in the UK’s interest."

    There's actually bearly a single sentence on this subject of the EU doing less, which talks meaninglessly about "less and better" regulation and a "red card" mechanism for national governments.

    Sorry, but it's hardly filling me with confidence.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Socrates said:

    @Flightpath

    "Powers flowing away from Brussels, not always to it."

    If that's what Cameron considers "specific", it just reveals how much of a wooly PR man he is.

    I was flicking through Dan Hannan's recent comments today, and this lengthy one is one of the finest political columns I have read:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100277239/the-last-post-in-europe/

    His whole argument is well-crafted, insightful and accurate. One point I hadn't appreciated was that the EU has abandoned its free trade deal with India, due to be the third largest economy in the world by 2030. Meanwhile EFTA is racing towards finishing one.

    Its fascinating that as time goes by the EU is becoming more of an economic irrelevance while countries comprising the commonwealth are constantly increasing their world economic share.
    Britain should have made the commonwealth into something like the EEC rather than join the EEC itself.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    AveryLP said:

    Socrates said:

    @AveryLP

    So can you please tell me what the balance of competences review found on the CAP or the common external tariff? Did it find they were a net cost or a net benefit?

    Part of Semester 3 (Report no. 21). Still calling for and taking evidence. Report due for publication by "summer 2014". Would guess September is a working deadline.
    For both CAP and CET?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    @Socrates - Dan Hannan is excellent, by far the most persuasive BOOer, an excellent debater and a thoroughly decent chap, who doesn't make the mistake of deriding those who are not yet persuaded. What a pity the Kippers won't listen to him.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I also didn't realise Juncker's last job was chairing the Eurozone members. The lack of co-ordination and effective resolution of the Euro crisis, still rumbling on, has been one of the biggest ####-ups in world politics in recent times. Yet this is the guy we're giving a promotion to?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Speedy said:

    I have Boston as one of those seats that UKIP can definitely win in 2015, Castle Point is the other.

    Brietbart pointed out that the Castle Point Conservative MP is in charge of/involved with the Conservatives 'team 2015' effort, so should have a larger than average team of activists for the general election.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/06/25/Thanet-South-Delay-Selection-To-Help-Local-Candidate
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Socrates said:

    But there isn't anything in particular that he's been pressing for on a consistent basis, so the "allies" feel there isn't anything to engage with.

    If you or our EU friends think that, then you haven't been paying attention. Here's a reasonable non-partisan assessment of what he is pressing for and why he has chosen the tactics he has:

    http://www.policyreview.eu/camerons-eu-reform-agenda-laid-bare/
    We know exactly what our EU allies think:

    “For the Polish government to agree, someone will have to give us some mountain of gold. The Brits won’t give it to us, and the Germans, in order to keep the Brits on board, won’t give it to us either in all likelihood. So the answer will be: f*** off..."

    "Donald called him at once to discuss it, he had such a go at him, I mean f*** it’s a shame we didn't record it, he had a such a proper f****** go at him.”

    http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/leaked-tapes-shed-light-on-difficult.html
    Everyone is bugging everyone in the west these days, I wonder if they do the same thing in Britain (I would love to hear the PM doing an expletive deleted moaning about some minister tape on panorama).
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    @hurstllama
    I've replied to your message with details of the secret pub and it's secret landlord ;-)

    I have responded. The secrets are safe with me.
    Turns out I responded on a public ally viewable bit of the profile, oooooops! Have now deleted my secret details NE hope that no one nefarious spotted them and will come to get me with a banana or something.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    @hurstllama
    I've replied to your message with details of the secret pub and it's secret landlord ;-)

    I have responded. The secrets are safe with me.
    Turns out I responded on a public ally viewable bit of the profile, oooooops! Have now deleted my secret details NE hope that no one nefarious spotted them and will come to get me with a banana or something.
    I think David Miliband is out of the country at the moment.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I think UKIP has a better chance in seats where the sitting MP is retiring.

    Thanet South, Great Grimsby and Louth&Horncastle are in that category. It's possible Walsall North might be another one.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Socrates said:

    @Flightpath

    "Powers flowing away from Brussels, not always to it."

    If that's what Cameron considers "specific", it just reveals how much of a wooly PR man he is.

    I was flicking through Dan Hannan's recent comments today, and this lengthy one is one of the finest political columns I have read:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100277239/the-last-post-in-europe/

    His whole argument is well-crafted, insightful and accurate. One point I hadn't appreciated was that the EU has abandoned its free trade deal with India, due to be the third largest economy in the world by 2030. Meanwhile EFTA is racing towards finishing one.

    So fine, you're a blank piece of paper, I wouldn't have started from here kind of guy.

    Great.

    But where does that get you at GE2015 and what actually do you want out of a political system? Do you have faith in Nige such that you will stay with him on his journey to develop an alternative political philosophy over the next 20 years? Is this a protest vote and hence the resulting Lab govt will be a slap in the face for namby-pamby Dave who didn't have the b*lls to override his, um, coalition partners to enforce the path of true Rightivity?

    WHAT IS IT THAT YOU WANT? Perfection? Well give the man a cigar. Snap; so do we all. But...

    WHAT DO WE HAVE? An imperfect, messy geo-political landscape which can only be addressed gradually.

    And for that job, the Cons are the best people for the job.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @TOPPING

    As I've said below, I think both Labour and Conservative are unacceptable governments. I will vote for a smaller party until the Conservative sufficiently reform to win back my vote. I hope that after David Cameron loses the next election, the leadership election will result in a leader who is eurosceptic and values basic civil liberties. In the longer term, it would be nice if such a Conservative Party could merge or form an alliance with UKIP
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    @hurstllama
    I've replied to your message with details of the secret pub and it's secret landlord ;-)

    I have responded. The secrets are safe with me.
    Turns out I responded on a public ally viewable bit of the profile, oooooops! Have now deleted my secret details NE hope that no one nefarious spotted them and will come to get me with a banana or something.
    Phew

  • AndyJS said:

    I think UKIP has a better chance in seats where the sitting MP is retiring.

    Thanet South, Great Grimsby and Louth&Horncastle are in that category. It's possible Walsall North might be another one.

    I agree but I would think a seat like Great Grimsby should be there number one target. The winning candidate got 10,777 votes last time. If you imagine it becomes a three way marginal then you could conceivably win on 8,000 votes. that is a lot easier than the 15,000+ votes needed elsewhere.

    UKIP should target seats where there is lower turnout, they require less votes to win.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    I have Boston as one of those seats that UKIP can definitely win in 2015, Castle Point is the other.

    Brietbart pointed out that the Castle Point Conservative MP is in charge of/involved with the Conservatives 'team 2015' effort, so should have a larger than average team of activists for the general election.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/06/25/Thanet-South-Delay-Selection-To-Help-Local-Candidate
    2 known unknowns:
    Canvey Island indy's are a nice spanner in the works for the tories there.
    So would a reappearance of Bob Spink.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2014
    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:

    Socrates said:

    @AveryLP

    So can you please tell me what the balance of competences review found on the CAP or the common external tariff? Did it find they were a net cost or a net benefit?

    Part of Semester 3 (Report no. 21). Still calling for and taking evidence. Report due for publication by "summer 2014". Would guess September is a working deadline.
    For both CAP and CET?
    I assume you mean the Common External Tariff?

    If so then it will have been covered in the Trade and Investment report (No 9, Semester 2). consultation has concluded and various reports published.

    Documents here: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/review-of-uk-and-eu-balance-of-competences-call-for-evidence-on-trade-and-investment
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    But there isn't anything in particular that he's been pressing for on a consistent basis, so the "allies" feel there isn't anything to engage with.

    If you or our EU friends think that, then you haven't been paying attention. Here's a reasonable non-partisan assessment of what he is pressing for and why he has chosen the tactics he has:

    http://www.policyreview.eu/camerons-eu-reform-agenda-laid-bare/
    Thanks for pointing us at that interesting article, Mr. N. Th following two sentences leapt out at me:

    "One thing is clear, the current leadership of the Conservative party want to remain in the EU. Whilst the UK’s demands are wide-ranging they are not absolutist positions."

    Translation: "Cameron wants to stay in and he has no "red-lines" that might prevent him from arguing his negotiations have been a success". Perhaps to put it another way, Cameron wants to try and do the same as Wilson.

    However, Wilson lived in a different,more deferential, age. In the early-mid 1970s people may have looked at who was lining up on each side of the debate and gone for the "gentlemen" as opposed to the "trouble-makers", I doubt that will apply again.

    In short Cameron's European strategy seems to be based upon a lie or to be more exact a series of lies.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    I think UKIP has a better chance in seats where the sitting MP is retiring.

    Thanet South, Great Grimsby and Louth&Horncastle are in that category. It's possible Walsall North might be another one.

    I agree but I would think a seat like Great Grimsby should be there number one target. The winning candidate got 10,777 votes last time. If you imagine it becomes a three way marginal then you could conceivably win on 8,000 votes. that is a lot easier than the 15,000+ votes needed elsewhere.

    UKIP should target seats where there is lower turnout, they require less votes to win.
    Yes, the best shots for the party will be where (a) sitting mp retiring, (b) low turnout, (c) more than two parties in with a chance of winning so a low share is enough to win.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    @HurstLlama - 'Translating' an opinion by a third party into something which he didn't say is hardly evidence that Cameron's strategy is based on a lie. I do wish people wouldn't throw around such ridiculous assertions. Why not just say that he's being over-optimistic about the prospect for reform?

    If you said that, you might turn out to be right. We shall see, or at least we shall see if we get a Conservative government and hence a referendum.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Socrates said:

    @TOPPING

    As I've said below, I think both Labour and Conservative are unacceptable governments. I will vote for a smaller party until the Conservative sufficiently reform to win back my vote. I hope that after David Cameron loses the next election, the leadership election will result in a leader who is eurosceptic and values basic civil liberties. In the longer term, it would be nice if such a Conservative Party could merge or form an alliance with UKIP

    Yep I understand that. So the question is, if/when Dave loses in 2015 is there an automatic tack to the right? How many rebels were there? 90? The thing that does my head in about the Cons is the solipsistic tossers who rebelled but I digress.

    I'm not sure that the tack to the right will emerge. Much more likely is that there will be a tack to the chaotic benefiting no one except EdM. And Jean-Claude, of course.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @AveryLP

    Thanks for that link. It is good it notes that modern FTA alternatives are not just about goods:

    To conclude a modern FTA with the EU, similar to EU-Korea. Many of the issues
    with a goods-only FTA, including those relating to MFN provisions, would also apply
    with a modern FTA. However, modern FTAs have far greater scope (see box above on
    TTIP and, in the appendix, on the EU’s FTA with Korea) and include foreign investment,
    services and movement of people. This arrangement would, therefore, reduce barriers,
    including non-tariff barriers, on a broader range of goods, services, and investments.
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    I've compiled a list of five seats that the Lib Dems might GAIN in 2015.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/26/five-seats-the-lib-dems-might-gain-in-2015/
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Socrates said:

    @TOPPING

    As I've said below, I think both Labour and Conservative are unacceptable governments. I will vote for a smaller party until the Conservative sufficiently reform to win back my vote. I hope that after David Cameron loses the next election, the leadership election will result in a leader who is eurosceptic and values basic civil liberties. In the longer term, it would be nice if such a Conservative Party could merge or form an alliance with UKIP

    There is a very small time frame for that to happen, any new tory leader will be very resistant to give up power to a new party.
    The ideal scenario is a caretaker leadership that is close to UKIPs position, probably under David Davis, to negotiate for a new party formation by early 2016 just in time for Boris (or someone else) to take over that new party.

    As for the next leadership of the tory party if there is no alliance or merger with UKIP it can go 2 ways:
    One, go the LD route, this is the most probable since there is resistance to change policies and most right wing conservative members would have left to UKIP anyway leaving the liberals behind, in this case the most senior government ministers have the greatest chances. (comparison: David Miliband)

    Two, go the UKIP route, the electoral need to get the base of the party back might outweigh the remaining party membership leanings, in this case ministers from less important departments and backbench mps have the greatest chances. (comparison: Ed Miliband)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2014
    @Casino_Royale

    Sorry, but it's hardly filling me with confidence.

    The terms of reference for the EU Competences Review specifically excluded policy formation.

    The review will not be tasked with producing specific recommendations. It will not prejudge future policy and it will not be asked to look at alternative models for Britain’s overall relationship with the EU. The review will provide a thorough analysis of what our membership of the EU means for our country and our future, an analysis which is currently notably absent. This body of work will allow everyone, those in Government, in Parliament and, most importantly, the British people themselves a far better understanding of an important part of the governance of the UK, on which to ground and develop this country’s policies in relation to the EU.

    This limitation is both methodologically correct (first capture relevant data and analyse it objectively) and politically pragmatic. The latter point being that full co-operation of the Lib Dems would not have been possible if the FCO were seeking a cross-departmental platform to advocate contentious Conservative Party policy. Also moving too quickly to a "renegotiation agenda" would have exacerbated splits within the Tories.

    When seeking to move entrenched opinion it is important to first establish the facts, then allow sufficient time for the 'new' facts and assumptions to be absorbed and for a consensus to be established. If you have the time this method is by far the best way of proceeding with decision making on complex and divisive issues.

    The original foundation document for the review sets out its principal objectives and constraints.

    Here is the link: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/35431/eu-balance-of-competences-review.pdf
  • antifrank1antifrank1 Posts: 81
    shadsy said:

    I've compiled a list of five seats that the Lib Dems might GAIN in 2015.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/26/five-seats-the-lib-dems-might-gain-in-2015/

    Hope springs eternal.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Luis Suarez bite: Uruguay striker banned for nine matches

    World governing body Fifa have imposed a record nine-match ban on Uruguay striker Luis Suarez for biting Italy defender Giorgio Chiellini.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/28023882#TWEET1168247
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Luis Suarez banned for 9 international matches and banned from all football activity for 4 months.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014
    TOPPING said:

    Socrates said:

    @TOPPING

    As I've said below, I think both Labour and Conservative are unacceptable governments. I will vote for a smaller party until the Conservative sufficiently reform to win back my vote. I hope that after David Cameron loses the next election, the leadership election will result in a leader who is eurosceptic and values basic civil liberties. In the longer term, it would be nice if such a Conservative Party could merge or form an alliance with UKIP

    Yep I understand that. So the question is, if/when Dave loses in 2015 is there an automatic tack to the right? How many rebels were there? 90? The thing that does my head in about the Cons is the solipsistic tossers who rebelled but I digress.

    I'm not sure that the tack to the right will emerge. Much more likely is that there will be a tack to the chaotic benefiting no one except EdM. And Jean-Claude, of course.
    If the Tories lose the next election, the first ones to lose their seats are centrish cameroonian MPs from marginalls
    If they end up with 200 seats then most Tory MPs will be fairly right wing.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    If this Conservative think tank is right, my system for picking UKIPs successful seats will have been better than I could possibly expected, and I will make a nice few quid!

    "If"...

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/06/25/UKIP-Could-Take-Both-Plymouth-Seats

    I find analysis like this quite annoying. People need to stop using one off political events like by-elections and transpose them onto the next election in order to claim that only their policies can save party x, y and z from disaster.

    The interesting thing will be what seats UKIP target at the next election. The lesson that they should take from Newark is that they have to select the right candidates for these seats (there candidate in Great Yarmouth has issues) and for a party like UKIP they will need to impose those candidates centrally.

    For the election as a whole those candidates are going to be the face of the party so to maximise their electoral fortunes nationally and locally they will have to be the Diane James' rather than the Rodger Helmer's (basically female and ethnic candidates). Unfortunately that would require playing the game and becoming more like the other parties - How many UKIPers on the board would scream with anguish if the leadership started doing this?
    UKIP have 24 (?) MEP's of whom several are either female or BAME... no need for quotas, no need to become more like other parties

    Janice Atkinson, Suzanne Evans, Diane James, Jane Collins, the girl who was on QT recently whose name I forget... all of them are high ranking kippers, as are mixed race economic spokesman Steven Woolfe and Asian Amjad whatisname!
    They do but the question is how many of them are going to be in the 10 or so seats that UKIP are going to target, and therefore have a higher profile nationally.

    The fundamental mistake UKIP made in Newark was the candidate. Whether fair or not the whole campaign became about his views and previous statements. It would be interesting to know if it was an entirely local decision to select him or whether the leadership parachuted him in. If it is the former then I would suggest the party bypass local associations in these seats and impose candidates that broaden their national appeal. if the later then they have a hopeless leadership.

    Would it bother you if UKIPs leadership impose candidates in target seats?
    Not really

    Tim Aker is the candidate in Thurrock, was impressive on the Daily Politics again today. I am sure the big guns will contest the target seats. O'Flynn in Boston I reckon, Farage in S Thanet, Nuttall in Doncaster North maybe
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    Nine matches and four months from any and all football activity. That includes Liverpool, so he would be unavailable until the end of October. Not enough IMO, should have gone for a whole year or at least started the 4 months from August making him unavailable until December.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    @HurstLlama - 'Translating' an opinion by a third party into something which he didn't say is hardly evidence that Cameron's strategy is based on a lie. I do wish people wouldn't throw around such ridiculous assertions. Why not just say that he's being over-optimistic about the prospect for reform?

    If you said that, you might turn out to be right. We shall see, or at least we shall see if we get a Conservative government and hence a referendum.

    Fair go, Mr. N. I was commenting on an article that you had recommended. If you want to believe that Cameron is sincere, but perhaps over-optimistic as to what he can achieve, that is fine by me. I, on the other hand, don't think Cameron is so stupid and naive. Furthermore, with the full resources of the FCO behind him, I think he must have a realistic appreciation of what is and what is not possible and he has said, has he not, that the UK should stay in.

    Now can you reconcile those points and come up with an explanation that does not involve a more than usual elastic conscience on the Wilson model ?

    However, as you say, we will only know if we get a Cameron majority government next time. So the chances are we will never find out.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    shadsy said:

    I've compiled a list of five seats that the Lib Dems might GAIN in 2015.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/26/five-seats-the-lib-dems-might-gain-in-2015/

    I only agree about Montgomeryshire, Lembit Opik was a big... for the LD, however since they have no MP, there will be no MP incumbency benefit, so the chances are not that great.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Luis Suarez banned for 9 international matches and banned from all football activity for 4 months.

    Back in time for the trip to St James' Park then ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    Wow, apparently the football ban includes training with Liverpool and attending games, he cannot enter the stadium or training ground while the ban is in place. It literally is a ban on him playing any football organised under the FIFA banner (all professional forms of football in the UK pyramid). He can play in a pub game I guess...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MaxPB said:

    Wow, apparently the football ban includes training with Liverpool and attending games, he cannot enter the stadium or training ground while the ban is in place. It literally is a ban on him playing any football organised under the FIFA banner (all professional forms of football in the UK pyramid). He can play in a pub game I guess...

    And some say there is no God.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    MaxPB said:

    Wow, apparently the football ban includes training with Liverpool and attending games, he cannot enter the stadium or training ground while the ban is in place. It literally is a ban on him playing any football organised under the FIFA banner (all professional forms of football in the UK pyramid). He can play in a pub game I guess...

    I once watched Shoaib Akhtar play for Berkswell Cricket club whilst he was banned (Or badly out of form) for something or other.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    MikeK's famous bi-monthly forecasts for the number of seats UKIP will win to parliament after GE 2015 will be published at 09:15 hrs GMT tomorrow morning.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    MaxPB said:

    Wow, apparently the football ban includes training with Liverpool and attending games, he cannot enter the stadium or training ground while the ban is in place. It literally is a ban on him playing any football organised under the FIFA banner (all professional forms of football in the UK pyramid). He can play in a pub game I guess...

    I'm about to go balls deep on a bet on Rickie Lambert being the premiership's leading goal scorer next season
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited June 2014

    Furthermore, with the full resources of the FCO behind him, I think he must have a realistic appreciation of what is and what is not possible and he has said, has he not, that the UK should stay in.

    Now can you reconcile those points and come up with an explanation that does not involve a more than usual elastic conscience on the Wilson model ?

    You are starting from the wrong end. I agree it's an unholy mess, but it wasn't David Cameron who got us into it. He has to start from the position Blair and Brown bequeathed. On the one hand we have an EU which is distinctly sub-optimal and which is going to be incredibly hard to change or renegotiate. On the other hand, the alternative of leaving is also near-impossible, with the BBC, the CBI, the unions, Labour, the LibDems, and some Tories, campaigning to stay in, and with support for the In side from the US and of course Europe, all scaremongering about job losses. It's not as though the BOOers have done anything to put forward a coherent case of what leaving would actually entail, most notably why they think negotiation for a trade deal on the terms we would want is a doddle but renegotiation is impossible. Given all that, the idea that voters are going to take a leap in the dark and decide to leave is cloud-cuckoo-land.

    That is the reality, and Cameron is above all a realist (thank goodness). He'll try to get as good a deal as we can, and then call the referendum to ratify it. It won't be ideal. It certainly won't be as good a deal as we could have got if the government of the day had followed his advice and held a referendum before Lisbon. It may indeed be not much better than the status quo. But until someone comes up with a better strategy, it's the best on offer. And, if we are lucky, it might be possible to gently disengage a bit with the Eurozone forming an inner core and the UK (and perhaps some others) getting less closely integrated.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Pulpstar said:

    Luis Suarez banned for 9 international matches and banned from all football activity for 4 months.

    Back in time for the trip to St James' Park then ?
    Or Villarreal (if they are in Spanish top league)
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    If I bit someone in the course of my job, I'm pretty sure my employer would sack me. I wonder if Liverpool will do the same.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    MaxPB said:

    Wow, apparently the football ban includes training with Liverpool and attending games, he cannot enter the stadium or training ground while the ban is in place. It literally is a ban on him playing any football organised under the FIFA banner (all professional forms of football in the UK pyramid). He can play in a pub game I guess...

    I'm about to go balls deep on a bet on Rickie Lambert being the premiership's leading goal scorer next season
    Good odds, I hope.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030

    Luis Suarez banned for 9 international matches and banned from all football activity for 4 months.

    He's not even allowed to think about football, let alone watch it on the telly!
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,465
    Can somebody explain to me why FIFA are punishing Liverpool?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    Finally, FIFA have denied any right to appeal the sentence and will apparently not abide any ruling from CAS over the bans, Suarez can, however, appeal the fine. They say it is in accordance with their own rules governing appeals which allow them to deny them to repeat offenders, doping and violent conduct.

    Interesting if true.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    shadsy said:

    I've compiled a list of five seats that the Lib Dems might GAIN in 2015.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/26/five-seats-the-lib-dems-might-gain-in-2015/

    Was Ashfield the biggest Lab -> Lib swing in the country last time ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited June 2014
    Socrates said:

    If I bit someone in the course of my job, I'm pretty sure my employer would sack me. I wonder if Liverpool will do the same.

    Your employer didn't sign you for £22.8m or sell you to another employer for £100m.

    That's why.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    It will be interesting to see what happens in this case of discrimination. Probably nothing as authorities are scared of offending Islam.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2670259/Christian-Heathrow-worker-sacked-fundamentalist-colleagues-accused-anti-Islam.html
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I have a suggestion for Nighthawks:
    Chen Guangbiao and NY homeless people.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/tanyachen/this-chinese-millionaire-has-the-most-ridiculous-business-ca

    http://nymag.com/news/features/chen-guangbiao-2014-2/

    Valentina Luo ‏@valentinaluo 6h
    No free lunch: Chen Guangbiao offers free lunch to poor in US & asks them to pose as red army soldiers #BadPropaganda pic.twitter.com/zWRzksDosr
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    philiph said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wow, apparently the football ban includes training with Liverpool and attending games, he cannot enter the stadium or training ground while the ban is in place. It literally is a ban on him playing any football organised under the FIFA banner (all professional forms of football in the UK pyramid). He can play in a pub game I guess...

    I'm about to go balls deep on a bet on Rickie Lambert being the premiership's leading goal scorer next season
    Good odds, I hope.

    66/1 with Bet Victor

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Can somebody explain to me why FIFA are punishing Liverpool?

    Perhaps they were worried that the city of Liverpool was running low on complaint topics ?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    philiph said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wow, apparently the football ban includes training with Liverpool and attending games, he cannot enter the stadium or training ground while the ban is in place. It literally is a ban on him playing any football organised under the FIFA banner (all professional forms of football in the UK pyramid). He can play in a pub game I guess...

    I'm about to go balls deep on a bet on Rickie Lambert being the premiership's leading goal scorer next season
    Good odds, I hope.

    66/1 with Bet Victor

    Not a bet I would have

    Wasn't even top scorer for Southampton last season, wont take pens for Liverpool like he did for Saints and even if Suarez leaves, wont be first choice

    Hope you didn't have too much on
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    MikeK said:

    It will be interesting to see what happens in this case of discrimination. Probably nothing as authorities are scared of offending Islam.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2670259/Christian-Heathrow-worker-sacked-fundamentalist-colleagues-accused-anti-Islam.html

    I'd hate to give a view without details of the facts of the case, which aren't really available there.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Suarez - 'banned from football related activity' - does that include being transferred?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Luis Suarez banned for 9 international matches and banned from all football activity for 4 months.

    He can play for Spurs then....
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    It's not as though the BOOers have done anything to put forward a coherent case of what leaving would actually entail, most notably why they think negotiation for a trade deal on the terms we would want is a doddle but renegotiation is impossible.

    What absolute drivel. You yourself have read the paper of the Brexit winner, and said it was a very good and coherent paper. The exact same case exists for the BOO, repatriation and federalist visions: the political parties have spoken about broad terms, while think tanks have put forward detailed visions.


  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    Lennon said:

    Suarez - 'banned from football related activity' - does that include being transferred?

    He cannot even collect Panini stickers apparently
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Lennon said:

    Suarez - 'banned from football related activity' - does that include being transferred?

    I do hope so !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Socrates said:

    If I bit someone in the course of my job, I'm pretty sure my employer would sack me. I wonder if Liverpool will do the same.

    Your employer didn't sign you for £22.8m or sell you to another employer for £100m.

    That's why.

    Footballers are more like assets rather than employees tbh.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited June 2014
    Socrates said:


    What absolute drivel. You yourself have read the paper of the Brexit winner, and said it was a very good and coherent paper. The exact same case exists for the BOO, repatriation and federalist visions: the political parties have spoken about broad terms, while think tanks have put forward detailed visions.

    Yes, the Brexit paper is good.

    And the follow-up is where, exactly?

    Instead of building the case for leaving, and seeking to persuade the uncommitted that leaving the EU might be realistic and viable, UKIP has become an anti-immigration, anti-Cameron rantfest, trying to prevent Brexit by putting Miliband into No 10.

    After all, if there is a detailed, viable vision, then great: encourage the Kippers to vote Tory in order to get the referendum, and spend three years building the Out campaign.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    Lennon said:

    Suarez - 'banned from football related activity' - does that include being transferred?

    Apparently yes it does. The Spanish press (both Barca and Real friendly papers) are reporting that Suarez can't move to Spain until the ban is over, which is after the transfer window closes.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    MaxPB said:

    Lennon said:

    Suarez - 'banned from football related activity' - does that include being transferred?

    Apparently yes it does. The Spanish press (both Barca and Real friendly papers) are reporting that Suarez can't move to Spain until the ban is over, which is after the transfer window closes.
    A sadistic punishment from FIFA!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lennon said:

    Suarez - 'banned from football related activity' - does that include being transferred?

    Apparently yes it does. The Spanish press (both Barca and Real friendly papers) are reporting that Suarez can't move to Spain until the ban is over, which is after the transfer window closes.
    A sadistic punishment from FIFA!
    <3 Thanks FIFA.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    How Labour must wish that Ed Miliband gets banned from all political activity for 4 months
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    @Pulpstar
    Redcar was the highest Lab>Lib swing, but Ashfield was next.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,549
    edited June 2014
    shadsy said:

    I've compiled a list of five seats that the Lib Dems might GAIN in 2015.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/26/five-seats-the-lib-dems-might-gain-in-2015/

    Not St Albans?

    Clegg was there last Friday
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited June 2014
    The path is clear for Bobby Sol to be the PL top scorer now..... lump on it!!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Lennon said:

    Suarez - 'banned from football related activity' - does that include being transferred?

    Yes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited June 2014
    SKYBET Suarez NOT to leave Liverpool before the Summer Transfer Window Closes

    Into 1-6 (Tipped up by PfP/PtP @ 5-4 (Coral), available at 11-10 this morning)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    CORRECTION - FIFA confirm that Liverpool can sell him if they want, I expect he will try and force a move if that is the case.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Speaking as Liverpool supporting, England fan, THIS HAS TO BE THE WORST WORLD CUP EVER.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    FIFA have confirmed Suarez can be transferred - should anyone want him.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    The telegraph states:

    15.25 FIFA confirms Luis Suarez can be transferred during the course of his suspension.

    ???
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Always nice to get a 5* review. Bumps Sir Edric's Temple back up to 4.5 stars on Goodreads.

    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/19231238-sir-edric-s-temple

    I'm unfamiliar with football disciplinary measures. Is 9 matches and 4 months considered harsh, lenient or justified?

    Speaking of discipline, it's worth considering that this will play against Hamilton. More reliability DNFs mean he'll likely sooner (and more often) exceed limits on electronic sets (4/5, Rosberg on 3/5) and engines. The electronics will mean a 10 place grid penalty, and I'd guess the same for a new engine. However, whilst Hamilton will be able to bounce back from that at most places, it will allow Rosberg to scamper off into the distance. And if it happened at a tight track (Singapore) it would prove more problematic.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, England, Liverpool, Caesar, you just love second raters ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    MaxPB said:

    CORRECTION - FIFA confirm that Liverpool can sell him if they want, I expect he will try and force a move if that is the case.

    https://www.skybet.com/football/transfer-specials/event/16605358?aff_id=8036 7-2 available then for him to leave during the transfer window.

    £8 @ 7-2 Suarez doesn't leave in summer transfer window
    £20 @ 5-4 Suarez leaves before 2nd September, 2014.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    The 7-2 on him leaving is now into 9-4.

    PB on the ball quicker than Skybet wrt the FIFA implications.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    Mr. Eagles, England, Liverpool, Caesar, you just love second raters ;)

    You could add Yorkshire to that list as well... (ducks)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Now into 6-4 !
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Lennon, it was in the ancient city of York that Constantine, who refounded Byzantium and moved the Roman capital there, as well as making Christianity the religion of the whole of Europe, was made emperor.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Mr. Eagles, England, Liverpool, Caesar, you just love second raters ;)

    Pish and tish.

    England aren't second raters, probably sixth raters. They'd probably lose to Scotland, that's how bad we are.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Mr Dancer, received your message.

    Yes, the offer is still open, be warned, as driver, I get to choose the music played, and my playlists and compilation CDs are erm legendary.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Uruguay are a bigger price now to win the tourney than they were before it started !
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    In unrelated news, a dead drug baron's hippos are proving problematic:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27905743
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Mr. Eagles, England, Liverpool, Caesar, you just love second raters ;)

    Pish and tish.

    England aren't second raters, probably sixth raters. They'd probably lose to Scotland, that's how bad we are.

    Madam .... That's grossly disparaging toward Scotland !!

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10927865/UK-has-had-fastest-growing-population-in-Europe-for-a-decade-official-figures.html

    We should take it as a compliment, I suppose. Everyone wants to come here. For certain values of 'everyone'.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TGOHF said:

    FIFA have confirmed Suarez can be transferred - should anyone want him.

    So Liverpool onto a big profit. But clearly he will not be interested in a club being promoted by vegetarians.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,612
    shadsy said:

    I've compiled a list of five seats that the Lib Dems might GAIN in 2015.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/26/five-seats-the-lib-dems-might-gain-in-2015/

    Montgomeryshire will be a Conservative hold, likely with a substantially increased majority (5,000 I'd say).

    Watford is perhaps the most interesting one - in that there is a tremendously popular LibDem mayor, who got - what - 44% of the vote last year. Given UKIP's rise, she'd only need to keep 70% of that to win the seat. If she stands, Watford is probably a 3-1 shot for the Libs.

    Oxwab is almost certainly a Conservative hold. And the LibDems will not take Ashfield or Maidstone.
This discussion has been closed.