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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why UKIP could be heading for a general election share in the 10-15% range
At a Political Studies Association briefing that I attended before the May 22nd Euros Prof Jane Green of Manchester University announced that British Election Study (BES) poll data sampled in February and March found that 57.6% of those planning to vote UKIP in the Euros also intended to vote for the party at GE2015.
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I have to agree. But that said, Dave will, I strongly suspect, try to fudge. The man has no ideology and he really is event driven. See Dominic Cummins for details..
On Tuesday afternoon the BBC headlines (the red-button text thingy, i.e. the thing that used to be Ceefax, but I don't know what it's now called) reported for several hours that Coulson had been convicted on all three counts. I was confused when I heard the reports of the judge criticising the PM, and it wasn't until Wednesday that I even realised that there were two outstanding counts on which Coulson had not in fact been convicted.
I know this doesn’t fit the narrative of many here but it has been shown in poll after poll
Far better to campaign on the economy, tax policy, welfare state reform and related bread and butter issues. Here UKIP either have incoherent or absent policies. In the areas that they do have policies these are likely to be voter repellent. WWC older men are not likely to be keen on flat taxes and privatizing the NHS.
It is a mistake to fight where your enemy chooses.
On topic - @foxinsoxuk 6:44am – good points well made.
Off topic – Aunty muses on “What would the UK be called without Scotland?
Would you like to see "continuing UK" in big gold letters on your passport?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-magazine-monitor-27867406
And the same goes for the voters we have lost. A few wavers might drift back but otherwise assume they are gone (and that they had probably been gone a long time). I think we can help convince others not to go (especially once they publish their domestic policies in the autumn) but remember UKIP are far less of a threat to Labour at the GE than the Tories. They take votes off us where we are most secure. They take votes off the Tories is seats where they are least secure. Its such a shame.....
http://sluggerotoole.com/2014/06/25/scotlands-choice-reshaping-relationships-qubindyref-and-a-federal-uk-pitch-from-tory-msp-murdo-fraser/
Cozying up to the Tea Party has f**ked the GOP. Let's not screw up the Tories as well. *
* Just to be clear, there are a number of areas where UKIP has sensible ideas. But the overall tone and the views of many of its supporters and activists are downright unpleasant. And Farage is a pub buffoon would would be a disaster for the country if he was ever to get anywhere near the serious business of government.
What is of interest to me is what an British exit from the EU would do to the whole EU project. I know that there are some voices on the Continent who say that they would be better off without the British etc but is that really the case? Wouldn't there be a significant jolt to the whole idea of Europe - as currently constructed - if a significant country decided after 40 odd years or so to leave? It would surely show that the direction of travel isn't only one way and that there is something rotten with the structure if a country of 60 million or so say "no".
I don't think it's a given that other countries would simply shrug their shoulders, go "oh well" and carry on as before.
Et tu Brute?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2669897/The-Labour-Top-Trumps-plotters-want-Ed-Miliband-out.html
The red liberals will head home when Farron gets the gig I suspect anyway, and pop goes Ed Miliband's bubble. But that will be after the GE.
In a recent speech at the Institute for Government Mr Farage questioned the idea of government outsourcing generally too.
youtu.be/JBjvxCqX61Q
It is perfectly conceivable that UKIP could get 17% in a general election, with a maximum of 27% or 30% or 34%, and with no seats. If the national average is 17%, is more likely that the highest would be 40%+ which would mean a few seats, but only probably not definitely.
But that doesn't matter because it's not going to be 17% or 15% or 10% nationally; it's going to be 5% or less. UKIP will flop in 2015 just as much as the Referendum Party flopped in 1997.
FPT: Mr. Foxinsox, Mr. Watcher and Mr. Llama are quite right, and thanks to them for explaining to Mr. Fett (yet again) why he was wrong.
Immigration is the biggest single reason for voting UKIP (maybe the only one amoung the WWC). Among older voters, it is a mellower 'I don't recognise this country any more, compared with the England of my birth'.
There are very few who share my view that the EU is such a corrupt, inefficient and damaging outfit, that we'd be BBO. And the stronger UKIP is, the more likely we are to quit the EU. I think this would not just be good for Britain, but also benefit the rest of Europe
But people support different parties for all sorts of reasons. Who am I to denigrate fellow UKIP supporters, just because they vote UKIP for a different reason from me?
Any recommendations for good central hotels? She will have been camping for 2 months so something nice would be good as it will be our last pre-Uni mother/daughter treat - though I doubt we will spend much time there as she wants to "do" all of NY (phew...).
Thanks.
There'd be no point in Cameron trying to outflank UKIP now. He's built his career on being Heir to Blair ("the Master") and he'd come over as quite insincere if he campaigned from the right.
More intelligent voters will note that Cameron can't even block the appointment of Juncker and wonder how on earth he hopes to negotiate any non-trivial EU reform in two years. Being publicly euro-sceptic is not going to do him any favours, because he's not credible on the issue.
In his recent Coffee House article, Charles Moore elaborated on remarks made by Sikorski. The UK is in favour of the independent nation-state; many Europeans fear it. I'm not sure that we fully comprehend that fear, or how it might shape their view of our shenanigans. At the least, it's an interesting point.
I'm not a Kipper, but I know a fair few. They're not wavering at all. They're taking the view that a journey of a thousand miles etc. On this point, I disagree with Mr Loony.
The kipper manifesto will be nonsense again, vote share under 10% and no MPs. Exposing the vacuity of the manifesto should be easy.
I think the one issue with the assertion that they are heading for 10-15% of the vote is that it doesn't take into account differential turnout between the elections. if Ukip are getting 27.4% on a 33.4% turnout then on a 65% turnout that would drop to 14%.
if you then take there 57.6% retention they are talking about you end up with 8%.
So if you take this as a starting point of a discussion Ukip would be in a 6-10% range depending on how the parties are viewed/campaign over the next year.
On UKIP: I think it's pretty hard to call. Those who didn't bother voting in the European elections might still vote for them as a protest, or if they think there's a genuine chance of a purple patch in their constituency.
This point can be turned round. First, we do understand that fear. We had to fight, after all, to put right and rescue them from the consequences of their failed nation states. Second, we take the view that the way to avoid the same thing again is to have successful nation states and feel that many Europeans do not understand our fear of having our successful model subsumed into a model created by countries with relatively little history of life under the rule of law, democracy, uncorrupt governments and judiciary etc etc.
A little more understanding on the European side is needed too - instead of implying that we are somehow barbarians for believing in representative democracy.
Bear in mind that with a higher turnout, some of the new voters will vote UKIP.
http://www.booking.com/hotel/us/the-benjamin.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_the_European_Union
Even if that was out by double, it'd be in oh-well territory. StClare is however right that the political impact would be much larger. But it's important to realise that from the perspective of Continental politicians and media, it's EXACTLY like the typical English view of Scotland. They think we'd be eccentric to want to leave, but they see it as driven almost entirely by domestic politics rather than real or imagined Continental mistakes (in the same way as in England we see the independence drive being driven by Salmond and popular sentiment, not by our failure to invest in a new rail line to Edinburgh or whatever). If we withdrew it would be taken as a regrettable feature of British politics rather than a "let's have another think" moment for the EU - just as if Scotland withdrew from the UK, it wouldn't really prompt a rethink on more power for Merseyside and Cornwall.
On the whole, European politicians think the EU works OK - awkward and cumbersome at times, but clearly a good thing. A belief that anything we do will fundamentally change that is a mistake. The Juncker business is a small example of the same misconception - Cameron thought that Continental politicians would think it essential to have his agreement, whereas in fact they have come to see him like an eccentric and irascible uncle, to be humoured if possible but not really a reasonable partner for any joint project.
Ultimately it's up to us to decide whether we want to remain members of the EU pretty much as it is. It's not going to change radically in any direction any time soon.
£4bn (rounding up) out of £864bn?
That has the overpowering aroma of bullshit. Where's the other £860bn coming from? Greece?
Ok, clicking the link you appear to have used a 7 year budget sum (£864bn) and a one year (2009) net cost to the UK (about £3.8bn).
That still doesn't add up, however, because that's be around a net cost of £28bn over the course of the 7 year period, but the average (if all 28 countries gave the same) would be over £30bn contribution each.
I suppose the budget includes things like the rebate (greatly diminished thanks to Blair) as a 'cost', and that along with the rather larger CAP and so forth may explain the ridiculously large budget.
Are there a huge number of people out there that would increase there vote dramatically when others move back to their normal voting behaviour?
To go from the 8%, that these numbers would imply are definitely voting UKIP at the next election to 12%, they would have to gain somewhere in the region of 1.2 million voters that didn't vote in the euros. That seems like a big ask for a non established party.
I think what we must remember from the last election is that hype about people and parties can only go so far against the established and historic voting patterns of the country.
'On the whole, European politicians think the EU works OK - awkward and cumbersome at times, but clearly a good thing. '
Just illustrates how out of touch they are with EU voters.
At least you debunk the ridiculous myth that the UK has any influence.
Mr. Zims, well, the eurozone's a good indicator of how well Europe's working.
It's seriously bad news for anyone wanting a referendum on the EC. Ironic?
The EU budget for 2013/14 was less than 140 billion Euros (less than a 1/6th of what you claimed). The UK share of that after rebates was 12.4% or 17.4 billion Euros which is more than 4 times what you stated.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/259692/EU_Finances_2013.pdf
http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06091.pdf
According to the paper our annual net contribution is around £8 billion. Which is, as Mr Palmer states, 'oh well' territory. However, I do wonder at his assertion that European politicians think the EU is working OK - Spain still has unemployment north of 25%.
I suppose the politicians are doing OK, which is perhaps what he meant
Finally, well said Mr Cyclefree, that's a lovely and eloquent rejoinder to my post.
But UKIP's actual result was closer to it's share among All Voters (on May 21st, Yougov gave UKIP 27%, compared to the result of 27.5%), than among those saying Certain to Vote. That suggests that UKIP voters weren't actually disproportionately represented among the people who voted on May 22nd.
In the case of the EU it is even worse because what monies we do get back come with such huge strings attached - as well as the need to commit to spend extra monies on top - that it severely warps our own spending plans.
The only honest way to look at our EU contribution is in gross terms not net.
Meanwhile Oborne really socking it to everyone, mostly for taking money from the Murdoch empire but Cameron for all sorts of things.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/phone-hacking/10925485/Prime-Minister-and-his-gang-havent-learnt-their-lesson.html
"Mr Cameron has many virtues, but it is no longer possible to regard him as a man of sound character and reliably decent morality."
Welcome
'Mr. Zims, well, the eurozone's a good indicator of how well Europe's working.'
And who can forget all those dire warnings that if the UK didn't join 3 million jobs would be at risk together with a collapse in inward investment..
However, many of these do not want to join the Eurozone (even though they are committed to it) and they certainly wish to become members of NATO (if not already) for the military protection that theoretically it can provide.
However it is far from clear that any Party can obtain much more than 35% at any future election. And the reforms that are needed, particularly to health-care funding and existing pensions, will be so unpopular that a government for which perhaps as few as one elector in four voted simply cannot deliver them. Particularly when one considers that the only people who are enthusiastic for politics nowadays are ethnic isolationists (whether in UKIP or the SNP). We need either a "grand coalition" (no one is going to be a junior partner again after the experience of the Lib Dems in this Parliament) or... well, it won't happen in the lifetime of Our Gracious Sovereign Lady, but it's not too hard to see either her oldest son or his older son in due course signing off a military coup "to knock some sense into those idiot politicians". Probably not something you could get Shadsy to make a book on, though...
Meanwhile I think Cam should set up an "EU Negotiation Team" headed by somebody or other, make a song and dance about it, give them some woolly brief or other in public and then find some EU figures to interact with to say that the UK's EU Negotiation Team will be in touch.
Or something similar.
That will jumpstart the narrative that they are serious about renegotiation. What happens post-2015, in terms of content and tangible negotiation goals, or indeed what happens at GE2015, will be another thing
But the Cons need to implant into the public a growing belief that renegotiation will happen.
Chortle ....
twitter.com/stephenfry/status/481374943339638784/photo/1
Voters don't want to waste their votes on a party with 0 MPs - in general - Brighton etc being the odd random seat.
http://tompride.wordpress.com/2014/05/09/ukip-deputy-leader-calls-for-end-of-nhs/
I think it is you that is attributing false positions to your own party. It does seem that Nuttall has deleted that section on his website. So to be charitable: it is possible that this is just an example of inconsistency by the UKIP leadership, or possibly wolves attempting to hide in sheeps clothing. I believe that it is both.
What the hell sort of line is that from Dave ?
He's going to look very impotent I suspect.
Unless Ed is PM and then there is no ref.
@john_zims The paper I previously referenced fisks the '3 million jobs' claim quite nicely. It also sets out the four trading positions we could conceivably adopt (to whit, the status quo, the Swiss, the Turkish or the WTO), while advocating the status quo.
Against that, you'd need to factor in that UKIP outperformed (I think) at the EU election vs GE polling at the same time, so it may be that the effect is already washed out.
So the money goes back to Europe, spins around, a little bit leaks out, and then it comes back.
On independence we would have to decide whether to spend more / less or the same on agriculture (just as one example). That would impact the net saving that we make - but we would be deciding how to optimise the level and structure of agricultural subsidies for our own farmers rather than living within a framework which may suit French smallholders better.
In addition, there are payments such as the £1bn+ of the international aid budget that is handed over to the EU to give away as part of their international aid efforts. Is that captured in the £864bn number, or is that on top?
Willing to settle now, but not sure how?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28033749
Doubt he needs the cash...
If I had to guess, I'd say UKIP will get around 8%. Depending on exactly where their votes come from, that might of course still be enough to land us with the worst of all possible worlds, a weak and unstable Labour-led government.
Paypal invoices are a nice easy way to settle bets on here I've found.
Looking at those histograms, consider how much of its Euro vote share UKIP actually keeps in the subsequent GE.
2001: 21%
2005: 14%
2010: 18% (after 27% had claimed they would definitely vote UKIP).
The picture is similar with respect to the locals. The closer to actual power the result puts UKIP, the flakier their support, hence 26% in the euros but 17% in the locals and 3% in GEs.
Based on the above it seems obvious that we are at or have perhaps already passed peak blazer.
Cameron doesn't need to go nuclear on Europe or immigration, he just needs to keep picking pointless fights and making headlines, good or bad, about them. Being perceived to stand up for Britain will be enough to win support, as it's not being stood up for that is driving the march from the establishment.
Expect 10 months of Juncker, Euro sausages and innovative and inflammatory rules on immigration.
If UKIP break 6% at the next election I'll streak naked down Whitehall in a Nigel Farage mask whilst singing Land of Hope and Glory...
Will John Loony be joining Mr Hodges ?
I stroke my white cat.
Ahem.
But if you want to stick it in the collection box of your local CofE church that will be fine by me.
18% in the 2014 locals.