'British people favour leaving the European Union, according to poll Nearly half would vote to leave while only 37% would vote to stay, though the picture changes if membership is renegotiated'
Footer great but back to article. Ed can be as crap as he wants but Labour will win election unless dramatic change in polls. Tories have to get swing of 11%. Very unlikely. Libs/Lab will have majority unless world changes. can't see it
I suspect that there is little to be gained from citing poll figures from pre-1992 - for two reasons. Firstly there have been major changes in polling methodologies since the 1992 debacle. Secondly pre-1987 - and to some extent even 1992 - left of centre voters believed they had an alternative available to them in the form of the Alliance. That is no longer true. Right of centre voters ,however, ...
Footer great but back to article. Ed can be as crap as he wants but Labour will win election unless dramatic change in polls. Tories have to get swing of 11%. Very unlikely. Libs/Lab will have majority unless world changes. can't see it
21st June 2009, the Conservatives has a 17 point opinion poll lead
Meow. Labour PPC tries to undermine and deride a visit to his constituency from the Conservative Prime Minister, and with it, the subsequent positive media coverage and photo ops it has provided for his opponent Anna Soubry. In other words, this shows that the Conservatives are up well up for a fight in this marginal seat, and that they are now bringing in the big guns such as Cameron to show their solid support of Soubry's local campaign in the run up to the GE. That is bound to have resonated with the local voters, I also assume that Ed Miliband has already pencilled in a visit to Broxtowe in his GE campaign diary?
Quite a bit of derisive doorstep comment today about "pothole Cameron", so he did get attention (second on the regional news), if not necessarily quite what he'd have wanted. This sort of thing, like photoshoots brooding over which bread to buy in Aldi, is genuinely difficult for party leaders - if they pretend to be interested in small issues, people giggle, if they talk about big issues, people say they're out of touch. Ideally the small things need to be used as a link to the big ones - I expect he wanted the theme to be "we are able to fix your potholes because of our wonderful economic management" but the media coverage doesn't work that way.
A Tory PM is out defending a marginal. So they have given up on winning !
Meow. Labour PPC tries to undermine and deride a visit to his constituency from the Conservative Prime Minister, and with it, the subsequent positive media coverage and photo ops it has provided for his opponent Anna Soubry. In other words, this shows that the Conservatives are up well up for a fight in this marginal seat, and that they are now bringing in the big guns such as Cameron to show their solid support of Soubry's local campaign in the run up to the GE. That is bound to have resonated with the local voters, I also assume that Ed Miliband has already pencilled in a visit to Broxtowe in his GE campaign diary?
Quite a bit of derisive doorstep comment today about "pothole Cameron", so he did get attention (second on the regional news), if not necessarily quite what he'd have wanted. This sort of thing, like photoshoots brooding over which bread to buy in Aldi, is genuinely difficult for party leaders - if they pretend to be interested in small issues, people giggle, if they talk about big issues, people say they're out of touch. Ideally the small things need to be used as a link to the big ones - I expect he wanted the theme to be "we are able to fix your potholes because of our wonderful economic management" but the media coverage doesn't work that way.
So a Tory PM is out defending a marginal. So they have given up on winning !
Just in: Video of David Cameron receiving news that Ed Miliband is safe as Labour leader
vine.co/v/MJmuUvxt7B1
You can't beat a good Llama video.
Apropos of nothing, am I the only one who thinks the picture in the header would make a good caption competition? Unfortunately none of the captions I can think of would be acceptable on a family web site.
Just in: Video of David Cameron receiving news that Ed Miliband is safe as Labour leader
vine.co/v/MJmuUvxt7B1
You can't beat a good Llama video.
Apropos of nothing, am I the only one who thinks the picture in the header would make a good caption competition? Unfortunately none of the captions I can think of would be acceptable on a family web site.
If I'm guest editor in the future, I'll use the above picture and have a caption competition.
Cameron is a disaster of a Tory leader. When the electoral commission get round to publishing the income figures this year the collapse of the Tories membership will really become apparent.
Every month Cameron is leader of the Tories their membership free falls.
Cameron is a disaster of a Tory leader. When the electoral commission get round to publishing the income figures this year the collapse of the Tories membership will really become apparent.
Every month Cameron is leader of the Tories their membership free falls.
And now back to the studio....this is Kevin Turvey reporting
Well facts are facts. Tory membership is now almost certainly under 90,000 if you work out the rate of the decline. Camerons little stunt at declaring membership at the start of the parliament won't work this year and the new income figure will be significantly less.
Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times is a bit partial, but interesting
Lab 38, Con 32 (no other party VI given)
Some 46% of voters and 49% of Labour supporters say the party would be more likely to win the next election with someone else in charge.
Only 16% of voters think he is “an asset” to his party, 43% believe he is “a liability”. Just 14% think he “looks and sounds like a prime minister” but 70% disagree. Just 21% think he is “up to the job” of running the country while 60% do not.
Well facts are facts. Tory membership is now almost certainly under 90,000 if you work out the rate of the decline. Camerons little stunt at declaring membership at the start of the parliament won't work this year and the new income figure will be significantly less.
UKIP membership is about to hit 40,000 at any moment.
Ed is proving a bit of a disaster as Labour leader but I agree with Edmund that David would have been worse (despite have such an excellent name).
David had the ability, when supported by Darling, to rid this country of a lunatic who was not fit to be PM. And he bottled it. As a test of leadership, judgement and courage it doesn't come much clearer than that. He deserved to lose and Labour are well shot of him.
Brown damaged everything he touched and his grip was on the throat of the Labour party for nearly 15 years. Very little of any complexity or perception survived. Labour needs to move on to the post Brown generation as soon as possible.
Yes, I would bet a lot of those new joiners are former Tories. Last year they lost a stack of members from the gay marriage legislation. They were able to hide this because income given for the part of the year when these people were members still showed up in the accounts. Lazy journalists just divided the money by the membership fee.
This year will have seen a full year without that income so it will look like the Tories have lost loads of members when in reality its a lag.
Labour’s tribulations come after a difficult month for Miliband. One senior Labour backbencher said: “It’s getting to the Michael Foot scenario. Everything Ed does flops or gets laughed at. He’s got the opposite of the Midas touch.”
and
ONE of Ed Miliband’s key allies has said Labour is failing to connect with traditional working-class voters and that he no longer knows “what the Labour Party is for”.
John Denham, a former cabinet minister who was a parliamentary aide to the Labour leader, said voters “don’t believe” they are part of Miliband’s “One Nation” party.
SunTimes/YouGov poll Just 14% think Ed Miliband“looks and sounds like a prime minister” but 70% disagree.
Don't matter though, does it. If 38% vote Labour and only 33% vote Conservative he will get to be PM no matter how crap he is.
He may be the most unlikely prime minister since the Earl of Bute, and the thought of him sitting down to negotiate with the likes of Putin may make one smile or shudder depending if you work in the Kremlin or live in the UK, but as things stand he is going to get the job.
He is only unlikely cos the press have no interest in doing their job. Which is to try and report on news rather than commentate on it endlessly. Our press know very very little about the mechanics of politics. All they care about is the "narrative" because they help write it. Where as in reality they matter very very little.
The 2015 general election result will do to the press what the 1992 election did to polling companies. Make them change or die.
Cameron is a disaster of a Tory leader. When the electoral commission get round to publishing the income figures this year the collapse of the Tories membership will really become apparent.
Every month Cameron is leader of the Tories their membership free falls.
The Tories claim they will be out of debt by the GE.
Separately more members have signed up for Conference this year than last year.
Yes, I would bet a lot of those new joiners are former Tories. Last year they lost a stack of members from the gay marriage legislation. They were able to hide this because income given for the part of the year when these people were members still showed up in the accounts. Lazy journalists just divided the money by the membership fee.
This year will have seen a full year without that income so it will look like the Tories have lost loads of members when in reality its a lag.
It really is time we had a Cameron is crap thread. Mr. Eagles promised us one a few weeks back but what with one thing and another it never happened. Time to dust it off, Mr. E.
We asked people how they thought of Labour and the Conservatives. The responses are telling. 37% say Labour is “nice but dim”, against 11% for the Tories. On the other hand, 25% reckon the Conservatives are “mean but smart”, against just 4% for Labour. With both parties, outright hostility is far more common than full support, with twice as many saying “mean and dim” than “nice and smart”.
Overall, 48% say Labour is nice, against 26% for the Tories. But 40% think the Tories are smart, while only 20% credit Labour with this virtue.
......
To some extent the story is a familiar one, of Miliband suffering low personal ratings. Our survey goes further. It finds widespread disappointment among Labour’s own supporters:
• More Labour voters regard him as weak than strong
• One in three don’t think he is up to the job of prime minister
• Half of them think Labour would do better with a different leader
Great. Those two facts have nothing to do with your overall membership. Wait until the electoral commission publishes the party's accounts and you will see another drop.
Quite how Cameron has been allowed by Tories to hallow out the membership like he has I do not know. Cameron just doesn't care for the Tory party past himself.
He is only unlikely cos the press have no interest in doing their job. Which is to try and report on news rather than commentate on it endlessly. Our press know very very little about the mechanics of politics. All they care about is the "narrative" because they help write it. Where as in reality they matter very very little.
The 2015 general election result will do to the press what the 1992 election did to polling companies. Make them change or die.
If you say so. Anyone who can willingly pose for a photo one day and then apologise for that photo the next may not have the grip and foresight that might be useful in international negotiations.
As to the press, I think it quite likely that it will change after Miliband becomes PM. He will, I think, lead the most authoritarian government this country has ever seen and press censorship will be part of that.
Cameron is a disaster of a Tory leader. When the electoral commission get round to publishing the income figures this year the collapse of the Tories membership will really become apparent.
Every month Cameron is leader of the Tories their membership free falls.
The Tories claim they will be out of debt by the GE.
Separately more members have signed up for Conference this year than last year.
An analysis of the Conservative Party Constituency Association accounts shows a fall in membership of around 15% in 2013
Many of them say Labour chose the wrong brother four years ago.
All voters, 20% would be more likely to vote Labour if David were its leader; just 10% say less likely.
Among Labour voters the margin is even wider: 30% more likely, 8% less likely.
So is this stating 30% of Labour's VI of 36% would consider not voting Labour?
If they so decide when push comes to shove, as opposed to answering an opinion poll, that is 10.8% of Labour's VI thinking of bunking off in may 2015, because of Ed. Ouch!
Cameron is a disaster of a Tory leader. When the electoral commission get round to publishing the income figures this year the collapse of the Tories membership will really become apparent.
Every month Cameron is leader of the Tories their membership free falls.
The Tories claim they will be out of debt by the GE.
Separately more members have signed up for Conference this year than last year.
An analysis of the Conservative Party Constituency Association accounts shows a fall in membership of around 15% in 2013
Membership may have fallen but donations appear to be up.
Separately more members have signed up for Conference this year than last year.
Are you going? I'm speaking there (at a non-partisan fringe with a couple of Conservative MPs). If there are a few of us attending, perhaps we should try to organise a PBTorymeet? I expect to be at all the British conferences (including UKIP) except the Greens, which is being covered by colleagues. We thought about the SNP conference, but felt this year they'll be concentrating a bit on you know what.
My recollection from last year is that 40% of those present at both Tory and Labour conferences were non-members, including numerous supporters of other parties. However, we non-party riff-raff don't get into the main conference hall. The exception is the Greens, who agreeably say they're not bothered and we can come in and listen if we want, though presumsbly not vote!
Separately more members have signed up for Conference this year than last year.
Are you going? I'm speaking there (at a non-partisan fringe with a couple of Conservative MPs). If there are a few of us attending, perhaps we should try to organise a PBTorymeet? I expect to be at all the British conferences (including UKIP) except the Greens, which is being covered by colleagues. We thought about the SNP conference, but felt this year they'll be concentrating a bit on you know what.
My recollection from last year is that 40% of those present at both Tory and Labour conferences were non-members, including numerous supporters of other parties. However, we non-party riff-raff don't get into the main conference hall. The exception is the Greens, who agreeably say they're not bothered and we can come in and listen if we want, though presumsbly not vote!
I maybe attending the Labour conference this year, purely to help out a friend who is meant to be participating in a fringe event.
At some point Ed Millibands personal ratings and Labour's share of the vote are going to have to meet.
It's inconceivable to me that someone who is universally derided like Ed is, will go on to win a general election and become Prime Minister - Unless something catastrophic happens to the government, like another recession or a winter of discontent.
Asked who has been the best Labour leader only 2% name Miliband, half as many as for Neil Kinnock, the loser of the 1992 election, and just 1% ahead of Michael Foot, who was beaten by a landslide in 1983.
Asked who has been the best Labour leader only 2% name Miliband, half as many as for Neil Kinnock, the loser of the 1992 election, and just 1% ahead of Michael Foot, who was beaten by a landslide in 1983.
I think it's safe to say ST are gunning for Ed The Younger, LOL.
Asked who has been the best Labour leader only 2% name Miliband, half as many as for Neil Kinnock, the loser of the 1992 election, and just 1% ahead of Michael Foot, who was beaten by a landslide in 1983.
I think it's safe to say ST are gunning for Ed The Younger, LOL.
Nah, it's Peter Kellner and YouGov did the polling and the article.
At some point Ed Millibands personal ratings and Labour's share of the vote are going to have to meet.
It's inconceivable to me that someone who is universally derided like Ed is, will go on to win a general election and become Prime Minister - Unless something catastrophic happens to the government, like another recession or a winter of discontent.
Something has got to give...
That something won't show up in opinion polls until spring 2015. If the campaign it's run with a 'presidential' feeling, then the collision you expect may occur.
At some point Ed Millibands personal ratings and Labour's share of the vote are going to have to meet.
It's inconceivable to me that someone who is universally derided like Ed is, will go on to win a general election and become Prime Minister - Unless something catastrophic happens to the government, like another recession or a winter of discontent.
Something has got to give...
That something won't show up in opinion polls until spring 2015. If the campaign it's run with a 'presidential' feeling, then the collision you expect may occur.
The most interesting thing is the recent Ed is crap stuff is coming from Labour, such as that Guardian article saying Ed won't be able to do a Kinnock and carry on after a first defeat.
At some point Ed Millibands personal ratings and Labour's share of the vote are going to have to meet.
It's inconceivable to me that someone who is universally derided like Ed is, will go on to win a general election and become Prime Minister - Unless something catastrophic happens to the government, like another recession or a winter of discontent.
Something has got to give...
That something won't show up in opinion polls until spring 2015. If the campaign it's run with a 'presidential' feeling, then the collision you expect may occur.
The most interesting thing is the recent Ed is crap stuff is coming from Labour, such as that Guardian article saying Ed won't be able to do a Kinnock and carry on after a first defeat.
I guess the fact it has only just started coming out of Labour shows how inexplicably slow they are. Several years behind the rest of us!
Asked who has been the best Labour leader only 2% name Miliband, half as many as for Neil Kinnock, the loser of the 1992 election, and just 1% ahead of Michael Foot, who was beaten by a landslide in 1983.
I think it's safe to say ST are gunning for Ed The Younger, LOL.
Nah, it's Peter Kellner and YouGov did the polling and the article.
Wouldn't the ST have asked YouGov which questions they wanted to be asked? Or of the arrangement different to that with ComRes/Indy, ICM/Guardian, etc...
Asked who has been the best Labour leader only 2% name Miliband, half as many as for Neil Kinnock, the loser of the 1992 election, and just 1% ahead of Michael Foot, who was beaten by a landslide in 1983.
I think it's safe to say ST are gunning for Ed The Younger, LOL.
Nah, it's Peter Kellner and YouGov did the polling and the article.
Wouldn't the ST have asked YouGov which questions they wanted to be asked? Or of the arrangement different to that with ComRes/Indy, ICM/Guardian, etc...
That's how it works, the pollster then chooses the most appropriate questions.
I must admit that I was surprised to see an Ed is crap headline in the Guardian this week. But its important to note that media narrative is currently being driven by the polling evidence from the electorate rather than by any agenda by the media right now. And its certainly going to impact on the mood at the Labour Conference and pile further pressure on the Leadership if things don't start to show signs of improvement over the summer. Labour simple are not performing like a team, and they don't seem to have the hunger for the fight any more than they did in the run up to the last GE.
At some point Ed Millibands personal ratings and Labour's share of the vote are going to have to meet.
It's inconceivable to me that someone who is universally derided like Ed is, will go on to win a general election and become Prime Minister - Unless something catastrophic happens to the government, like another recession or a winter of discontent.
Something has got to give...
That something won't show up in opinion polls until spring 2015. If the campaign it's run with a 'presidential' feeling, then the collision you expect may occur.
The most interesting thing is the recent Ed is crap stuff is coming from Labour, such as that Guardian article saying Ed won't be able to do a Kinnock and carry on after a first defeat.
Comments
Ghana equalise!!
Suarez for Bobby Sol?
I'm amazing this world cup.
Germans surrendering under Paulus - 91,000
Pakistanis surrendering under Niazi - 93,000
'British people favour leaving the European Union, according to poll
Nearly half would vote to leave while only 37% would vote to stay, though the picture changes if membership is renegotiated'
http://tinyurl.com/mv8abjd
(also hopes TSE won't notice!)
I'll fetch me coat.
*Not Hun in the classical sense.
I've just backed Andy Murray to win Wimbledon 7/2
Just in: Video of David Cameron receiving news that Ed Miliband is safe as Labour leader
vine.co/v/MJmuUvxt7B1
Apropos of nothing, am I the only one who thinks the picture in the header would make a good caption competition? Unfortunately none of the captions I can think of would be acceptable on a family web site.
Every month Cameron is leader of the Tories their membership free falls.
Bosnia 1.93
Draw 3.75
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/market?id=1.112173832&exp=e
Well facts are facts. Tory membership is now almost certainly under 90,000 if you work out the rate of the decline. Camerons little stunt at declaring membership at the start of the parliament won't work this year and the new income figure will be significantly less.
Lab 38, Con 32 (no other party VI given)
Some 46% of voters and 49% of Labour supporters say the party would be more likely to win the next election with someone else in charge.
Only 16% of voters think he is “an asset” to his party, 43% believe he is “a liability”. Just 14% think he “looks and sounds like a prime minister” but 70% disagree. Just 21% think he is “up to the job” of running the country while 60% do not.
David had the ability, when supported by Darling, to rid this country of a lunatic who was not fit to be PM. And he bottled it. As a test of leadership, judgement and courage it doesn't come much clearer than that. He deserved to lose and Labour are well shot of him.
Brown damaged everything he touched and his grip was on the throat of the Labour party for nearly 15 years. Very little of any complexity or perception survived. Labour needs to move on to the post Brown generation as soon as possible.
Yes, I would bet a lot of those new joiners are former Tories. Last year they lost a stack of members from the gay marriage legislation. They were able to hide this because income given for the part of the year when these people were members still showed up in the accounts. Lazy journalists just divided the money by the membership fee.
This year will have seen a full year without that income so it will look like the Tories have lost loads of members when in reality its a lag.
Decent 6% lead despite Ed being 'crap'
Labour’s tribulations come after a difficult month for Miliband. One senior Labour backbencher said: “It’s getting to the Michael Foot scenario. Everything Ed does flops or gets laughed at. He’s got the opposite of the Midas touch.”
and
ONE of Ed Miliband’s key allies has said Labour is failing to connect with traditional working-class voters and that he no longer knows “what the Labour Party is for”.
John Denham, a former cabinet minister who was a parliamentary aide to the Labour leader, said voters “don’t believe” they are part of Miliband’s “One Nation” party.
He may be the most unlikely prime minister since the Earl of Bute, and the thought of him sitting down to negotiate with the likes of Putin may make one smile or shudder depending if you work in the Kremlin or live in the UK, but as things stand he is going to get the job.
Con 32, Lab 38, LD 8, UKIP 14
He is only unlikely cos the press have no interest in doing their job. Which is to try and report on news rather than commentate on it endlessly. Our press know very very little about the mechanics of politics. All they care about is the "narrative" because they help write it. Where as in reality they matter very very little.
The 2015 general election result will do to the press what the 1992 election did to polling companies. Make them change or die.
Separately more members have signed up for Conference this year than last year.
We asked people how they thought of Labour and the Conservatives. The responses are telling. 37% say Labour is “nice but dim”, against 11% for the Tories. On the other hand, 25% reckon the Conservatives are “mean but smart”, against just 4% for Labour. With both parties, outright hostility is far more common than full support, with twice as many saying “mean and dim” than “nice and smart”.
Overall, 48% say Labour is nice, against 26% for the Tories. But 40% think the Tories are smart, while only 20% credit Labour with this virtue.
......
To some extent the story is a familiar one, of Miliband suffering low personal ratings. Our survey goes further. It finds widespread disappointment among Labour’s own supporters:
• More Labour voters regard him as weak than strong
• One in three don’t think he is up to the job of prime minister
• Half of them think Labour would do better with a different leader
Great. Those two facts have nothing to do with your overall membership. Wait until the electoral commission publishes the party's accounts and you will see another drop.
Quite how Cameron has been allowed by Tories to hallow out the membership like he has I do not know. Cameron just doesn't care for the Tory party past himself.
As to the press, I think it quite likely that it will change after Miliband becomes PM. He will, I think, lead the most authoritarian government this country has ever seen and press censorship will be part of that.
All voters, 20% would be more likely to vote Labour if David were its leader; just 10% say less likely.
Among Labour voters the margin is even wider: 30% more likely, 8% less likely.
Does that take into account the fact that members who left half way through the year had accounted for half a years worth of subs?
If they so decide when push comes to shove, as opposed to answering an opinion poll, that is 10.8% of Labour's VI thinking of bunking off in may 2015, because of Ed. Ouch!
No wonder IOS is out tonight!
That's not how Labour voters work. Especially at a general election
My recollection from last year is that 40% of those present at both Tory and Labour conferences were non-members, including numerous supporters of other parties. However, we non-party riff-raff don't get into the main conference hall. The exception is the Greens, who agreeably say they're not bothered and we can come in and listen if we want, though presumsbly not vote!
As it's in Manchester.
Edit: I think Mike will also be there.
It's inconceivable to me that someone who is universally derided like Ed is, will go on to win a general election and become Prime Minister - Unless something catastrophic happens to the government, like another recession or a winter of discontent.
Something has got to give...
Asked who has been the best Labour leader only 2% name Miliband, half as many as for Neil Kinnock, the loser of the 1992 election, and just 1% ahead of Michael Foot, who was beaten by a landslide in 1983.
Not all memberships know how many members they have though
That something won't show up in opinion polls until spring 2015. If the campaign it's run with a 'presidential' feeling, then the collision you expect may occur.
The conference begins the day after the Indyref result.
If Yes wins, then the Labour conference will be downbeat,
If no wins, then Labour conference will be euphoric that they aren't losing a heartland.