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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The coalition parties make progress in this week’s Ashcroft

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958

    Labour Bradford West at 4/9 looks like a humdinger to me. Unfortunately I'm already quite exposed at 1/5 with PP (who currently go 1/8).

    Is Gorgeous George standing?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,524

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:



    To an extent, ultimately the enlightenment is incomplete whilst irrational belief systems hold such dominance.

    I don't think there's a very clear divide between rational and irrational belief systems. Jean Bodin, who advocated death for witches, was the most rational political and economic thinker of his time. Marxists believe that their arguments are highly rational. So do radical feminists.

    Not sure we can hope to eliminate irrational belief systems - some things which now seem to us commonplace - e.g. that slavery is wrong - will have seemed very eccentric in the past. What is perhaps more important is to fight belief systems which put all the money on their being right, with death the appropriate punishment for disagreement.
    I think that we often say "irrational" when we mean "unpleasant". The belief that slavery is justified is unpleasant, but it's certainly not irrational, from the point of view of the slaveowner.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited June 2014

    Labour Bradford West at 4/9 looks like a humdinger to me. Unfortunately I'm already quite exposed at 1/5 with PP (who currently go 1/8).

    Is Gorgeous George standing?
    Who knows, but the wheels have fallen off his electoral juggernaut there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958

    Labour Bradford West at 4/9 looks like a humdinger to me. Unfortunately I'm already quite exposed at 1/5 with PP (who currently go 1/8).

    Is Gorgeous George standing?
    Who knows, but the wheels have fallen off his electoral juggernaut there.
    True, what do you of think of the Eastleigh odds?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    Our man Shadsy has shortened a lot of UKIP targets a lot despite it being all over for them

    What gwan on?

    He recognises punters betting with their hearts rather than their heads.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,524

    Sean_F said:

    I don't think there's a very clear divide between rational and irrational belief systems. Jean Bodin, who advocated death for witches, was the most rational political and economic thinker of his time. Marxists believe that their arguments are highly rational. So do radical feminists.

    It depends what you mean by "rational".

    In making a rational argument one needs to start with a number of assumptions, and then apply the laws of logic to these assumptions to reach your conclusions. Most people can accept people questioning their logic, and consequently logic tends to be relatively well formed, but most people find it harder to accept people questioning their assumptions.

    Thus a Marxist may apply perfect logic to their argument, but what you really disagree with are their initial starting assumptions.

    In Maths and Physics it is customary to state ones assumptions at the beginning, but people's inherent beliefs and assumptions are so central to their sense of self that they can't help but assume that all right-thinking people will share them. Thus they are less often made explicit.

    This is why values and character matter so much more in elections than policies. Policies are all about applying logic to your assumptions, but values and character are about the essence of what those assumptions are. It's why so many people in Britain reflexively do not trust the Tories - they recognise that they have a very different view of the world at a fundamental level - and why otherwise sensible posters to this board can dismiss socialism - a broad and rich political tradition - as being about state control and spending other people's money to excess.
    It's perfectly possible to come to the wrong conclusion, but to use impeccable logic in coming to that conclusion.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2014
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Our man Shadsy has shortened a lot of UKIP targets a lot despite it being all over for them

    What gwan on?

    He recognises punters betting with their hearts rather than their heads.
    Well theyve closed down 15 of my accounts

    How much did you have UKIP <10% at 4/6 with me? And LD to beat UKIP at the same price?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014

    Speedy said:

    This should be used every time some one famous dies.
    And no Sheffield Hallam LD hold is not free money due for Clegg doing pretty poor in constituency polls there.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=37dklS3I7jM&feature=kp

    The most recent polling in the seat, if it used ICM's normal methodology, Clegg wins the seat comfortably.
    Need proof?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/27/nick-clegg-constituents-sheffield-hallam-lib-dems

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2561696/Revealed-Labours-plot-unseat-Clegg-Party-drawn-plans-decapitate-Lib-Dems-forcing-deputy-PM-General-Election.html

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/26/leaked-private-polling-shows-clegg-losing-sheffield-hallam-and-finishing-third-behind-the-tories/

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2834

    I don't give Clegg many chances of winning his seat, too many voters hate his guts.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    edited June 2014

    ToryJim said:

    Socrates said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    taffys said:

    I see some of these trojan horse schools banned Raffles. Wonder what it was about rakish fin du siecle gentleman thieves that they found particularly offensive?

    I think it is seen as a form of gambling, I believe some Presbyterians feel the same thing.
    I seem to remember it stems from distaste over the casting of lots to divide the garments of Christ at the crucifixion.
    Maybe you are correct, but the Roman Catholic church and, hence the CofE, has never been unpleasant about gambling or gamblers. I suspect that the religious antagonism came from the extreme protestant movement which objected to anyone enjoying themselves.
    Oh the Protestant reformation has a lot to answer for.
    And a lot we owe it for also. The concept of a priesthood of all believers whereby everyone could come to their own beliefs about the Bible was a major step on the way to the Enlightenment. It's not a coincidence that constitutionalism developed in several Protestant European countries.
    To an extent, ultimately the enlightenment is incomplete whilst irrational belief systems hold such dominance.
    There's nothing irrational about Religious faith.
    How is it rational then?

    Rationality is the quality or state of being reasonable, based on facts or reason


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    True, what do you of think of the Eastleigh odds?

    Con could be value, but I'm not currently on. It's a tricky one to call, with probable contradictory tactical voting.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,524

    Sean_F said:

    I don't think there's a very clear divide between rational and irrational belief systems. Jean Bodin, who advocated death for witches, was the most rational political and economic thinker of his time. Marxists believe that their arguments are highly rational. So do radical feminists.

    Indeed, there was a time when Althusser and structural Marxism were in fashion, when it was endlessly repeated that "scientific Marxism" and "Marxist science" were both tautological phrases.
    You often cite the example of Joachim of Fiore, who was a highly rational thinker.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    This should be used every time some one famous dies.
    And no Sheffield Hallam LD hold is not free money due for Clegg doing pretty poor in constituency polls there.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=37dklS3I7jM&feature=kp

    The most recent polling in the seat, if it used ICM's normal methodology, Clegg wins the seat comfortably.
    Need proof?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/27/nick-clegg-constituents-sheffield-hallam-lib-dems

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2561696/Revealed-Labours-plot-unseat-Clegg-Party-drawn-plans-decapitate-Lib-Dems-forcing-deputy-PM-General-Election.html

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/26/leaked-private-polling-shows-clegg-losing-sheffield-hallam-and-finishing-third-behind-the-tories/

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2834
    Thanks for linking to thread pieces I wrote.

    But here's the one you missed

    We believe that a candidate named, regular methodology poll from ICM would show Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam as clear Lib Dem holds. Tessa Munt is not 20 points adrift in Wells and that Redcar is a likely Labour gain on paper should be a surprise to no-one.

    http://survation.com/so-how-would-changing-leader-work-out-for-the-lib-dems-will-nick-clegg-lose-sheffield-hallam/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958

    True, what do you of think of the Eastleigh odds?

    Con could be value, but I'm not currently on. It's a tricky one to call, with probable contradictory tactical voting.
    Yeah, that's what I was thinking.

    If there's tactical voting against UKIP, who do you back?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    This should be used every time some one famous dies.
    And no Sheffield Hallam LD hold is not free money due for Clegg doing pretty poor in constituency polls there.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=37dklS3I7jM&feature=kp

    The most recent polling in the seat, if it used ICM's normal methodology, Clegg wins the seat comfortably.
    Need proof?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/27/nick-clegg-constituents-sheffield-hallam-lib-dems

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2561696/Revealed-Labours-plot-unseat-Clegg-Party-drawn-plans-decapitate-Lib-Dems-forcing-deputy-PM-General-Election.html

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/26/leaked-private-polling-shows-clegg-losing-sheffield-hallam-and-finishing-third-behind-the-tories/

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2834

    I don't give Clegg many chances of winning his seat, too many voters hate his guts.
    Nothing you have linked to is proof by any normal definition of that word .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Tories 11/4 to take Portsmouth South.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    True, what do you of think of the Eastleigh odds?

    Con could be value, but I'm not currently on. It's a tricky one to call, with probable contradictory tactical voting.
    Yeah, that's what I was thinking.

    If there's tactical voting against UKIP, who do you back?
    Tactical voting by who?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    True, what do you of think of the Eastleigh odds?

    Con could be value, but I'm not currently on. It's a tricky one to call, with probable contradictory tactical voting.
    If its Diane James again, then it's probably UKIP, since 2010 LD women voters will have trouble voting tactically against someone like her.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958

    True, what do you of think of the Eastleigh odds?

    Con could be value, but I'm not currently on. It's a tricky one to call, with probable contradictory tactical voting.
    Yeah, that's what I was thinking.

    If there's tactical voting against UKIP, who do you back?
    Tactical voting by who?
    People who don't like UKIP.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Speedy said:

    True, what do you of think of the Eastleigh odds?

    Con could be value, but I'm not currently on. It's a tricky one to call, with probable contradictory tactical voting.
    If its Diane James again, then it's probably UKIP, since 2010 LD women voters will have trouble voting tactically against someone like her.
    You don't half post some drivel
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    A lot of mug money must have gone on Thurrock

    7/2 from 16s
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Our man Shadsy has shortened a lot of UKIP targets a lot despite it being all over for them

    What gwan on?

    He recognises punters betting with their hearts rather than their heads.
    Well theyve closed down 15 of my accounts

    How much did you have UKIP <10% at 4/6 with me? And LD to beat UKIP at the same price?</p>
    I'm happy with my bets.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561

    Sean_F said:

    I don't think there's a very clear divide between rational and irrational belief systems. Jean Bodin, who advocated death for witches, was the most rational political and economic thinker of his time. Marxists believe that their arguments are highly rational. So do radical feminists.

    It depends what you mean by "rational".

    In making a rational argument one needs to start with a number of assumptions, and then apply the laws of logic to these assumptions to reach your conclusions. Most people can accept people questioning their logic, and consequently logic tends to be relatively well formed, but most people find it harder to accept people questioning their assumptions.

    Thus a Marxist may apply perfect logic to their argument, but what you really disagree with are their initial starting assumptions.

    In Maths and Physics it is customary to state ones assumptions at the beginning, but people's inherent beliefs and assumptions are so central to their sense of self that they can't help but assume that all right-thinking people will share them. Thus they are less often made explicit.

    This is why values and character matter so much more in elections than policies. Policies are all about applying logic to your assumptions, but values and character are about the essence of what those assumptions are. It's why so many people in Britain reflexively do not trust the Tories - they recognise that they have a very different view of the world at a fundamental level - and why otherwise sensible posters to this board can dismiss socialism - a broad and rich political tradition - as being about state control and spending other people's money to excess.
    Yes, all good points (and I take Sean F's too). In addition, as one can't predict what issues will come up over 5 years, it makes sense to have representatives who you believe to share your values and preferred character, since they're more likely to act as you would want when the black swan arrives.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    This should be used every time some one famous dies.
    And no Sheffield Hallam LD hold is not free money due for Clegg doing pretty poor in constituency polls there.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=37dklS3I7jM&feature=kp

    The most recent polling in the seat, if it used ICM's normal methodology, Clegg wins the seat comfortably.
    Need proof?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/27/nick-clegg-constituents-sheffield-hallam-lib-dems

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2561696/Revealed-Labours-plot-unseat-Clegg-Party-drawn-plans-decapitate-Lib-Dems-forcing-deputy-PM-General-Election.html

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/26/leaked-private-polling-shows-clegg-losing-sheffield-hallam-and-finishing-third-behind-the-tories/

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2834
    Thanks for linking to thread pieces I wrote.

    But here's the one you missed

    We believe that a candidate named, regular methodology poll from ICM would show Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam as clear Lib Dem holds. Tessa Munt is not 20 points adrift in Wells and that Redcar is a likely Labour gain on paper should be a surprise to no-one.

    http://survation.com/so-how-would-changing-leader-work-out-for-the-lib-dems-will-nick-clegg-lose-sheffield-hallam/
    So Survation and ICM agree with me.

    Sheffield Hallam- Nick Clegg MP (LD)

    “HEADLINE”

    LAB 33% CON 24.3% LD 23.2% UKIP 10.5% GRE 7.9% OTHERS 1%

    “HEADLINE” WITH NORMAL ICM ADJUSTMENT METHOD – LDs +5.5%

    LAB 29.9% 28.7% LD CON 23.9% UKIP 9.2% GRE 7.3% OTHERS 1%

    Clegg still loses even with the DK ICM national method.
    And that is the second poll that show's him in trouble.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited June 2014
    At the moment Ashcroft's polling is as predictable as a whore's knickers
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    There is, as far as I can see, preceisely one value bet on UKIP.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    This should be used every time some one famous dies.
    And no Sheffield Hallam LD hold is not free money due for Clegg doing pretty poor in constituency polls there.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=37dklS3I7jM&feature=kp

    The most recent polling in the seat, if it used ICM's normal methodology, Clegg wins the seat comfortably.
    Need proof?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/27/nick-clegg-constituents-sheffield-hallam-lib-dems

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2561696/Revealed-Labours-plot-unseat-Clegg-Party-drawn-plans-decapitate-Lib-Dems-forcing-deputy-PM-General-Election.html

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/26/leaked-private-polling-shows-clegg-losing-sheffield-hallam-and-finishing-third-behind-the-tories/

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2834
    Thanks for linking to thread pieces I wrote.

    But here's the one you missed

    We believe that a candidate named, regular methodology poll from ICM would show Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam as clear Lib Dem holds. Tessa Munt is not 20 points adrift in Wells and that Redcar is a likely Labour gain on paper should be a surprise to no-one.

    http://survation.com/so-how-would-changing-leader-work-out-for-the-lib-dems-will-nick-clegg-lose-sheffield-hallam/
    So Survation and ICM agree with me.

    Sheffield Hallam- Nick Clegg MP (LD)

    “HEADLINE”

    LAB 33% CON 24.3% LD 23.2% UKIP 10.5% GRE 7.9% OTHERS 1%

    “HEADLINE” WITH NORMAL ICM ADJUSTMENT METHOD – LDs +5.5%

    LAB 29.9% 28.7% LD CON 23.9% UKIP 9.2% GRE 7.3% OTHERS 1%

    Clegg still loses even with the DK ICM national method.
    And that is the second poll that show's him in trouble.
    Damian of Survation says quite clearly

    We believe that a candidate named, regular methodology poll from ICM would show Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam as clear Lib Dem holds.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    antifrank said:

    There is, as far as I can see, preceisely one value bet on UKIP.

    Do share.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    This should be used every time some one famous dies.
    And no Sheffield Hallam LD hold is not free money due for Clegg doing pretty poor in constituency polls there.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=37dklS3I7jM&feature=kp

    The most recent polling in the seat, if it used ICM's normal methodology, Clegg wins the seat comfortably.
    Need proof?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/27/nick-clegg-constituents-sheffield-hallam-lib-dems

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2561696/Revealed-Labours-plot-unseat-Clegg-Party-drawn-plans-decapitate-Lib-Dems-forcing-deputy-PM-General-Election.html

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/26/leaked-private-polling-shows-clegg-losing-sheffield-hallam-and-finishing-third-behind-the-tories/

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2834
    Thanks for linking to thread pieces I wrote.

    But here's the one you missed

    We believe that a candidate named, regular methodology poll from ICM would show Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam as clear Lib Dem holds. Tessa Munt is not 20 points adrift in Wells and that Redcar is a likely Labour gain on paper should be a surprise to no-one.

    http://survation.com/so-how-would-changing-leader-work-out-for-the-lib-dems-will-nick-clegg-lose-sheffield-hallam/
    So Survation and ICM agree with me.

    Sheffield Hallam- Nick Clegg MP (LD)

    “HEADLINE”

    LAB 33% CON 24.3% LD 23.2% UKIP 10.5% GRE 7.9% OTHERS 1%

    “HEADLINE” WITH NORMAL ICM ADJUSTMENT METHOD – LDs +5.5%

    LAB 29.9% 28.7% LD CON 23.9% UKIP 9.2% GRE 7.3% OTHERS 1%

    Clegg still loses even with the DK ICM national method.
    And that is the second poll that show's him in trouble.
    And the same poll under estimated the LD council percentage by 6% .
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    True, what do you of think of the Eastleigh odds?

    Con could be value, but I'm not currently on. It's a tricky one to call, with probable contradictory tactical voting.
    If its Diane James again, then it's probably UKIP, since 2010 LD women voters will have trouble voting tactically against someone like her.
    You don't half post some drivel
    It's perfectly sensible, since in Newark 2010 LD women voters where the problem for UKIP with a candidate as extreme,out of touch man as Roger Helmer, however Diane James is a more friendly moderate woman so that antiUKIP tactical voting wont exist as much as in Newark.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles

    What's the polling on "Eric Pickles PM" like?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    taffys said:

    My parents' church did not allow raffles until the late 1970s and they are still somewhat disapproved of by many in the congregation.

    Coming from Wales I can remember 'dry areas' where pubs did not open on a Sunday.

    We have "dry areas" still in Warwickhire.

    The effing breweries have closed half the village pubs :-(
    Would that be because the effing villagers weren't drinking in them?
    Probably because the effin PubCos have put up prices beyond the effin villagers ability to pay; which in itself is due to effin governments sticking their effin oar into matters and markets they don't effin understand.
    Did David Willetts ever work on pub legislation ? Looks just like his kind of balls-up :-)
    He might have done as a very junior SpAD, I wouldn't know. However the man responsible for killing the pub trade in England is no less a person than David Ivor Young, Baron Young of Graffham.
    It's been dying on its feet for many years. Can I recommend this as a good book on the subject? Albeit focused on the London Porter market rather than the rat's p1ss you get oop North.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Lion-Brewery-Victoria-Hutchings/dp/0954127595/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top/278-4666190-2854534

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Smarmeron said:

    @TheScreamingEagles

    What's the polling on "Eric Pickles PM" like?

    He's from Yorkshire, he'll be very popular.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    This should be used every time some one famous dies.
    And no Sheffield Hallam LD hold is not free money due for Clegg doing pretty poor in constituency polls there.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=37dklS3I7jM&feature=kp

    The most recent polling in the seat, if it used ICM's normal methodology, Clegg wins the seat comfortably.
    Need proof?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/27/nick-clegg-constituents-sheffield-hallam-lib-dems

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2561696/Revealed-Labours-plot-unseat-Clegg-Party-drawn-plans-decapitate-Lib-Dems-forcing-deputy-PM-General-Election.html

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/26/leaked-private-polling-shows-clegg-losing-sheffield-hallam-and-finishing-third-behind-the-tories/

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2834
    Thanks for linking to thread pieces I wrote.

    But here's the one you missed

    We believe that a candidate named, regular methodology poll from ICM would show Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam as clear Lib Dem holds. Tessa Munt is not 20 points adrift in Wells and that Redcar is a likely Labour gain on paper should be a surprise to no-one.

    http://survation.com/so-how-would-changing-leader-work-out-for-the-lib-dems-will-nick-clegg-lose-sheffield-hallam/
    So Survation and ICM agree with me.

    Sheffield Hallam- Nick Clegg MP (LD)

    “HEADLINE”

    LAB 33% CON 24.3% LD 23.2% UKIP 10.5% GRE 7.9% OTHERS 1%

    “HEADLINE” WITH NORMAL ICM ADJUSTMENT METHOD – LDs +5.5%

    LAB 29.9% 28.7% LD CON 23.9% UKIP 9.2% GRE 7.3% OTHERS 1%

    Clegg still loses even with the DK ICM national method.
    And that is the second poll that show's him in trouble.
    Damian of Survation says quite clearly

    We believe that a candidate named, regular methodology poll from ICM would show Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam as clear Lib Dem holds.
    That contradicts the statistics he posted for that argument.
    Even on ICM normal methodology Clegg loses.
    Who do you believe?
    His numbers or his words?
    And its the second poll that shows him in trouble, its not just one.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    True, what do you of think of the Eastleigh odds?

    Con could be value, but I'm not currently on. It's a tricky one to call, with probable contradictory tactical voting.
    If its Diane James again, then it's probably UKIP, since 2010 LD women voters will have trouble voting tactically against someone like her.
    You don't half post some drivel
    It's perfectly sensible, since in Newark 2010 LD women voters where the problem for UKIP with a candidate as extreme,out of touch man as Roger Helmer, however Diane James is a more friendly moderate woman so that antiUKIP tactical voting wont exist as much as in Newark.
    the 2010 voters have already had a choice between Diane James and the Lib Dems in the by election . She lost and UKIP have gone backwards in Eastleigh since then .
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    There is, as far as I can see, preceisely one value bet on UKIP.

    Do share.
    All will be revealed in the morning.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles

    A true political heavyweight?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    There is, as far as I can see, preceisely one value bet on UKIP.

    Do share.
    All will be revealed in the morning.
    You tease, I do not Enjoy the Silence from you.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758



    Better than a bank

    Really?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Smarmeron said:

    @TheScreamingEagles

    What's the polling on "Eric Pickles PM" like?

    He's from Yorkshire, he'll be very popular.
    Didn't work for W Hague ;)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    This should be used every time some one famous dies.
    And no Sheffield Hallam LD hold is not free money due for Clegg doing pretty poor in constituency polls there.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=37dklS3I7jM&feature=kp

    The most recent polling in the seat, if it used ICM's normal methodology, Clegg wins the seat comfortably.
    Need proof?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/27/nick-clegg-constituents-sheffield-hallam-lib-dems

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2561696/Revealed-Labours-plot-unseat-Clegg-Party-drawn-plans-decapitate-Lib-Dems-forcing-deputy-PM-General-Election.html

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/26/leaked-private-polling-shows-clegg-losing-sheffield-hallam-and-finishing-third-behind-the-tories/

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2834
    Thanks for linking to thread pieces I wrote.

    But here's the one you missed

    We believe that a candidate named, regular methodology poll from ICM would show Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam as clear Lib Dem holds. Tessa Munt is not 20 points adrift in Wells and that Redcar is a likely Labour gain on paper should be a surprise to no-one.

    http://survation.com/so-how-would-changing-leader-work-out-for-the-lib-dems-will-nick-clegg-lose-sheffield-hallam/
    So Survation and ICM agree with me.

    Sheffield Hallam- Nick Clegg MP (LD)

    “HEADLINE”

    LAB 33% CON 24.3% LD 23.2% UKIP 10.5% GRE 7.9% OTHERS 1%

    “HEADLINE” WITH NORMAL ICM ADJUSTMENT METHOD – LDs +5.5%

    LAB 29.9% 28.7% LD CON 23.9% UKIP 9.2% GRE 7.3% OTHERS 1%

    Clegg still loses even with the DK ICM national method.
    And that is the second poll that show's him in trouble.
    Damian of Survation says quite clearly

    We believe that a candidate named, regular methodology poll from ICM would show Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam as clear Lib Dem holds.
    That contradicts the statistics he posted for that argument.
    Even on ICM normal methodology Clegg loses.
    Who do you believe?
    His numbers or his words?
    And its the second poll that shows him in trouble, its not just one.
    No it does not contradict what he says, I'm assuming you can't read.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Charles said:



    Better than a bank

    Really?
    Can you show me a bank that offers a 10% return in a year.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    @The ScreamingEagles @Antifrank @Richard Nabavi

    Messages smessages in your inbox
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    This should be used every time some one famous dies.
    And no Sheffield Hallam LD hold is not free money due for Clegg doing pretty poor in constituency polls there.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=37dklS3I7jM&feature=kp

    The most recent polling in the seat, if it used ICM's normal methodology, Clegg wins the seat comfortably.
    Need proof?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/27/nick-clegg-constituents-sheffield-hallam-lib-dems

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2561696/Revealed-Labours-plot-unseat-Clegg-Party-drawn-plans-decapitate-Lib-Dems-forcing-deputy-PM-General-Election.html

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/26/leaked-private-polling-shows-clegg-losing-sheffield-hallam-and-finishing-third-behind-the-tories/

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2834
    Thanks for linking to thread pieces I wrote.

    But here's the one you missed

    We believe that a candidate named, regular methodology poll from ICM would show Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam as clear Lib Dem holds. Tessa Munt is not 20 points adrift in Wells and that Redcar is a likely Labour gain on paper should be a surprise to no-one.

    http://survation.com/so-how-would-changing-leader-work-out-for-the-lib-dems-will-nick-clegg-lose-sheffield-hallam/
    So Survation and ICM agree with me.

    Sheffield Hallam- Nick Clegg MP (LD)

    “HEADLINE”

    LAB 33% CON 24.3% LD 23.2% UKIP 10.5% GRE 7.9% OTHERS 1%

    “HEADLINE” WITH NORMAL ICM ADJUSTMENT METHOD – LDs +5.5%

    LAB 29.9% 28.7% LD CON 23.9% UKIP 9.2% GRE 7.3% OTHERS 1%

    Clegg still loses even with the DK ICM national method.
    And that is the second poll that show's him in trouble.
    Damian of Survation says quite clearly

    We believe that a candidate named, regular methodology poll from ICM would show Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam as clear Lib Dem holds.
    That contradicts the statistics he posted for that argument.
    Even on ICM normal methodology Clegg loses.
    Who do you believe?
    His numbers or his words?
    No it does not contradict the statistics he posted . The poll did not have candidate named regular ICM methodology and the 2nd set of figures did not have the first of those . As mentioned , the poll also had a forecast for council elections % and had the Lib Dems 6 % too low .
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:



    To an extent, ultimately the enlightenment is incomplete whilst irrational belief systems hold such dominance.

    I don't think there's a very clear divide between rational and irrational belief systems. Jean Bodin, who advocated death for witches, was the most rational political and economic thinker of his time. Marxists believe that their arguments are highly rational. So do radical feminists.

    Not sure we can hope to eliminate irrational belief systems - some things which now seem to us commonplace - e.g. that slavery is wrong - will have seemed very eccentric in the past. What is perhaps more important is to fight belief systems which put all the money on their being right, with death the appropriate punishment for disagreement.
    I think that we often say "irrational" when we mean "unpleasant". The belief that slavery is justified is unpleasant, but it's certainly not irrational, from the point of view of the slaveowner.

    Slaveowning is a very interesting economic case study.

    It's good for the slave-owners in the near term, but arguably it is a dreadful system medium term because by making low productivity / low-wage (ahem) labour relatively more attractive it discourages capital investment.

    Consequently, over time those people with spare capital (i.e. slave owners) end up becoming increasingly less competitive and end up eroding their capital base.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    True, what do you of think of the Eastleigh odds?

    Con could be value, but I'm not currently on. It's a tricky one to call, with probable contradictory tactical voting.
    If its Diane James again, then it's probably UKIP, since 2010 LD women voters will have trouble voting tactically against someone like her.
    You don't half post some drivel
    It's perfectly sensible, since in Newark 2010 LD women voters where the problem for UKIP with a candidate as extreme,out of touch man as Roger Helmer, however Diane James is a more friendly moderate woman so that antiUKIP tactical voting wont exist as much as in Newark.
    the 2010 voters have already had a choice between Diane James and the Lib Dems in the by election . She lost and UKIP have gone backwards in Eastleigh since then .
    Postal votes, tories splitting the vote and the factor that Diane James was relatively unknown back then will not help the LD in Eastleigh in 2015 since all those will be reversed.
    Postal votes are less of a factor in general elections, she is a household name in the media while the LD MP there is unknown and the tories will vote tactically for her now they know that she can win, also she is ahead in constituency polls there and she is a charismatic moderate woman who can get the 2010 LD woman votes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    True, what do you of think of the Eastleigh odds?

    Con could be value, but I'm not currently on. It's a tricky one to call, with probable contradictory tactical voting.
    If its Diane James again, then it's probably UKIP, since 2010 LD women voters will have trouble voting tactically against someone like her.
    You don't half post some drivel
    It's perfectly sensible, since in Newark 2010 LD women voters where the problem for UKIP with a candidate as extreme,out of touch man as Roger Helmer, however Diane James is a more friendly moderate woman so that antiUKIP tactical voting wont exist as much as in Newark.
    the 2010 voters have already had a choice between Diane James and the Lib Dems in the by election . She lost and UKIP have gone backwards in Eastleigh since then .
    Postal votes, tories splitting the vote and the factor that Diane James was relatively unknown back then will not help the LD in Eastleigh in 2015 since all those will be reversed.
    Postal votes are less of a factor in general elections, she is a household name in the media while the LD MP there is unknown and the tories will vote tactically for her now they know that she can win, also she is ahead in constituency polls there and she is a charismatic moderate woman who can get the 2010 LD woman votes.
    Diane James wasn't that impressive last week, when she kept on talking about 50-60 UKIP seats next year.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:



    Better than a bank

    Really?
    Can you show me a bank that offers a 10% return in a year.
    :-) :-)
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Neil said:

    Were the Greens really ahead of the Lib Dems in the last Ashcroft poll? I remember them being at 7% but it doesnt seem to have registered that this was ahead of the Lib Dems. Labour should get a good little boost at GE time when most of that 7% realise they dont have a Green candidate to vote for or the Green candidate hasnt got a chance where they live.

    He didn't actually "publish" a result for the Greens in his main summary, lumped them in with Others, but they were at 7% in the final published table just before a Don't Know adjustment. I suppose he has now retrospectively published that figure by doing so this week & comparing them with last week.

    By the way Mike, last week's Labour lead was 9%, not 10%.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    True, what do you of think of the Eastleigh odds?

    Con could be value, but I'm not currently on. It's a tricky one to call, with probable contradictory tactical voting.
    If its Diane James again, then it's probably UKIP, since 2010 LD women voters will have trouble voting tactically against someone like her.
    You don't half post some drivel
    It's perfectly sensible, since in Newark 2010 LD women voters where the problem for UKIP with a candidate as extreme,out of touch man as Roger Helmer, however Diane James is a more friendly moderate woman so that antiUKIP tactical voting wont exist as much as in Newark.
    the 2010 voters have already had a choice between Diane James and the Lib Dems in the by election . She lost and UKIP have gone backwards in Eastleigh since then .
    Postal votes, tories splitting the vote and the factor that Diane James was relatively unknown back then will not help the LD in Eastleigh in 2015 since all those will be reversed.
    Postal votes are less of a factor in general elections, she is a household name in the media while the LD MP there is unknown and the tories will vote tactically for her now they know that she can win, also she is ahead in constituency polls there and she is a charismatic moderate woman who can get the 2010 LD woman votes.
    More drivel , I wish I was your bookmaker . The LD MP is not unknown in Eastleigh .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    Better than a bank

    Really?
    Can you show me a bank that offers a 10% return in a year.
    :-) :-)
    Whoops, I just realised my mistake.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Good to see Shadsy agrees with my assesment of Inverness.

    I smashed into Paddy's recent 6-4 Lib Dems and 11-4 SNP, as well as his 4-1 on the SNP.

    Nice to see Labour the realistic outsider here, Paddy had then second favourites !

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    True, what do you of think of the Eastleigh odds?

    Con could be value, but I'm not currently on. It's a tricky one to call, with probable contradictory tactical voting.
    If its Diane James again, then it's probably UKIP, since 2010 LD women voters will have trouble voting tactically against someone like her.
    You don't half post some drivel
    It's perfectly sensible, since in Newark 2010 LD women voters where the problem for UKIP with a candidate as extreme,out of touch man as Roger Helmer, however Diane James is a more friendly moderate woman so that antiUKIP tactical voting wont exist as much as in Newark.
    the 2010 voters have already had a choice between Diane James and the Lib Dems in the by election . She lost and UKIP have gone backwards in Eastleigh since then .
    Postal votes, tories splitting the vote and the factor that Diane James was relatively unknown back then will not help the LD in Eastleigh in 2015 since all those will be reversed.
    Postal votes are less of a factor in general elections, she is a household name in the media while the LD MP there is unknown and the tories will vote tactically for her now they know that she can win, also she is ahead in constituency polls there and she is a charismatic moderate woman who can get the 2010 LD woman votes.
    Diane James wasn't that impressive last week, when she kept on talking about 50-60 UKIP seats next year.

    And that was before her 30-33% share prediction went south faster than a flock of migrating birds
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    ToryJim said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    True, what do you of think of the Eastleigh odds?

    Con could be value, but I'm not currently on. It's a tricky one to call, with probable contradictory tactical voting.
    If its Diane James again, then it's probably UKIP, since 2010 LD women voters will have trouble voting tactically against someone like her.
    You don't half post some drivel
    It's perfectly sensible, since in Newark 2010 LD women voters where the problem for UKIP with a candidate as extreme,out of touch man as Roger Helmer, however Diane James is a more friendly moderate woman so that antiUKIP tactical voting wont exist as much as in Newark.
    the 2010 voters have already had a choice between Diane James and the Lib Dems in the by election . She lost and UKIP have gone backwards in Eastleigh since then .
    Postal votes, tories splitting the vote and the factor that Diane James was relatively unknown back then will not help the LD in Eastleigh in 2015 since all those will be reversed.
    Postal votes are less of a factor in general elections, she is a household name in the media while the LD MP there is unknown and the tories will vote tactically for her now they know that she can win, also she is ahead in constituency polls there and she is a charismatic moderate woman who can get the 2010 LD woman votes.
    Diane James wasn't that impressive last week, when she kept on talking about 50-60 UKIP seats next year.

    And that was before her 30-33% share prediction went south faster than a flock of migrating birds
    It did make me wonder if she was Roger in disguise.

    No wonder Matt Hancock was rolling his eyes.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    All Ladbrokes seat markets back up. Eg:

    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey

    LD 11/10 (from 1/2)
    SNP 13/8 (from 4/1)
    Lab 7/2 (n/c)
    Con 66/1
    UKIP 100/1
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:



    To an extent, ultimately the enlightenment is incomplete whilst irrational belief systems hold such dominance.

    I don't think there's a very clear divide between rational and irrational belief systems. Jean Bodin, who advocated death for witches, was the most rational political and economic thinker of his time. Marxists believe that their arguments are highly rational. So do radical feminists.

    Not sure we can hope to eliminate irrational belief systems - some things which now seem to us commonplace - e.g. that slavery is wrong - will have seemed very eccentric in the past. What is perhaps more important is to fight belief systems which put all the money on their being right, with death the appropriate punishment for disagreement.
    I think that we often say "irrational" when we mean "unpleasant". The belief that slavery is justified is unpleasant, but it's certainly not irrational, from the point of view of the slaveowner.

    Slaveowning is a very interesting economic case study.

    It's good for the slave-owners in the near term, but arguably it is a dreadful system medium term because by making low productivity / low-wage (ahem) labour relatively more attractive it discourages capital investment.

    Consequently, over time those people with spare capital (i.e. slave owners) end up becoming increasingly less competitive and end up eroding their capital base.
    Slave-owning was a rational economic system in a pre-industrial age, when technology was minimal and innovation near enough non-existent.

    That said, a novel I started writing but have since put on the back-burner deals with slavery in an imagined early 20th century.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Cammo kicks off the country's biggest international business event since the Festival of Britain in 1951.

    Where else, but Liverpool...
    http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/david-cameron-international-festival-business-7235969
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014



    The most recent polling in the seat, if it used ICM's normal methodology, Clegg wins the seat comfortably.

    How much more evidence and polling do you need before you realize that even the LD want to get rid of Clegg in the election.
    It wouldn't hurt them to get rid of him, since they cant get rid of him now, they will do it in his constituency.
    Anyway Labour is smelling blood, they will go for it and the LD factions will refuse to help Clegg retain his seat in order to get rid off him.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Speedy said:





    How much more evidence and polling do you need before you realize that even the LD want to get rid of Clegg in the election.
    It wouldn't hurt them to get rid of him, since they cant get rid of him now, they will do it in his constituency.
    Anyway Labour is smelling blood, they will go for it and the LD factions will refuse to help Clegg retain his seat in order to get rid off him.

    Labour went for it in the local elections last month . They smelled blood but it turned out to be their own as they finished 15% behind the Lib Dems .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    edited June 2014
    Speedy said:




    How much more evidence and polling do you need before you realize that even the LD want to get rid of Clegg in the election.
    It wouldn't hurt them to get rid of him, since they cant get rid of him now, they will do it in his constituency.
    Anyway Labour is smelling blood, they will go for it and the LD factions will refuse to help Clegg retain his seat in order to get rid off him.

    Considering I know the seat very well and several Lib Dem activists in the seat, I'm assuming nurse hasn't given you your medication today.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:



    To an extent, ultimately the enlightenment is incomplete whilst irrational belief systems hold such dominance.

    I don't think there's a very clear divide between rational and irrational belief systems. Jean Bodin, who advocated death for witches, was the most rational political and economic thinker of his time. Marxists believe that their arguments are highly rational. So do radical feminists.

    Not sure we can hope to eliminate irrational belief systems - some things which now seem to us commonplace - e.g. that slavery is wrong - will have seemed very eccentric in the past. What is perhaps more important is to fight belief systems which put all the money on their being right, with death the appropriate punishment for disagreement.
    I think that we often say "irrational" when we mean "unpleasant". The belief that slavery is justified is unpleasant, but it's certainly not irrational, from the point of view of the slaveowner.

    Slaveowning is a very interesting economic case study.

    It's good for the slave-owners in the near term, but arguably it is a dreadful system medium term because by making low productivity / low-wage (ahem) labour relatively more attractive it discourages capital investment.

    Consequently, over time those people with spare capital (i.e. slave owners) end up becoming increasingly less competitive and end up eroding their capital base.
    Slave-owning was a rational economic system in a pre-industrial age, when technology was minimal and innovation near enough non-existent.

    That said, a novel I started writing but have since put on the back-burner deals with slavery in an imagined early 20th century.
    Not convinced - I think the weaknesses were still there (e.g. why invest in a watermill if you can just use slave labour instead) but accept that in a pre-industrial society the importance of capital was much diminished, so the effect is much more gradual
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Another poll showing the Tories in the 20s.

    Simply not plausible I'm afraid.

    Next!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    Better than a bank

    Really?
    Can you show me a bank that offers a 10% return in a year.
    :-) :-)
    Whoops, I just realised my mistake.
    ;-)

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:



    To an extent, ultimately the enlightenment is incomplete whilst irrational belief systems hold such dominance.

    I don't think there's a very clear divide between rational and irrational belief systems. Jean Bodin, who advocated death for witches, was the most rational political and economic thinker of his time. Marxists believe that their arguments are highly rational. So do radical feminists.

    Not sure we can hope to eliminate irrational belief systems - some things which now seem to us commonplace - e.g. that slavery is wrong - will have seemed very eccentric in the past. What is perhaps more important is to fight belief systems which put all the money on their being right, with death the appropriate punishment for disagreement.
    I think that we often say "irrational" when we mean "unpleasant". The belief that slavery is justified is unpleasant, but it's certainly not irrational, from the point of view of the slaveowner.

    Slaveowning is a very interesting economic case study.

    It's good for the slave-owners in the near term, but arguably it is a dreadful system medium term because by making low productivity / low-wage (ahem) labour relatively more attractive it discourages capital investment.

    Consequently, over time those people with spare capital (i.e. slave owners) end up becoming increasingly less competitive and end up eroding their capital base.
    Slave-owning was a rational economic system in a pre-industrial age, when technology was minimal and innovation near enough non-existent.

    That said, a novel I started writing but have since put on the back-burner deals with slavery in an imagined early 20th century.
    Not convinced - I think the weaknesses were still there (e.g. why invest in a watermill if you can just use slave labour instead) but accept that in a pre-industrial society the importance of capital was much diminished, so the effect is much more gradual
    This picture sums up my attitude to slavery

    http://tinyurl.com/po9p3cg
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,524
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:



    To an extent, ultimately the enlightenment is incomplete whilst irrational belief systems hold such dominance.

    I don't think there's a very clear divide between rational and irrational belief systems. Jean Bodin, who advocated death for witches, was the most rational political and economic thinker of his time. Marxists believe that their arguments are highly rational. So do radical feminists.

    Not sure we can hope to eliminate irrational belief systems - some things which now seem to us commonplace - e.g. that slavery is wrong - will have seemed very eccentric in the past. What is perhaps more important is to fight belief systems which put all the money on their being right, with death the appropriate punishment for disagreement.
    I think that we often say "irrational" when we mean "unpleasant". The belief that slavery is justified is unpleasant, but it's certainly not irrational, from the point of view of the slaveowner.

    Slaveowning is a very interesting economic case study.

    It's good for the slave-owners in the near term, but arguably it is a dreadful system medium term because by making low productivity / low-wage (ahem) labour relatively more attractive it discourages capital investment.

    Consequently, over time those people with spare capital (i.e. slave owners) end up becoming increasingly less competitive and end up eroding their capital base.
    I think the Industrial Revolution made slavery mostly obsolete. Free, paid, labour usually suits both the employer and employee better. In earlier times, I could see the logic of it.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:





    How much more evidence and polling do you need before you realize that even the LD want to get rid of Clegg in the election.
    It wouldn't hurt them to get rid of him, since they cant get rid of him now, they will do it in his constituency.
    Anyway Labour is smelling blood, they will go for it and the LD factions will refuse to help Clegg retain his seat in order to get rid off him.

    Labour went for it in the local elections last month . They smelled blood but it turned out to be their own as they finished 15% behind the Lib Dems .
    We are talking about Clegg here, not local councilors, Clegg is monumentally unpopular even in his own party.
    If he loses no one will shed a tear not even the LD.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    macisback said:

    isam said:

    Jesus, Theresa May is giving an absolutely awful performance in the HofC

    Patronising tone, tripping up over her words, and playing party politics instead of addressing the root of the problem

    .. and it shouldnt matter, but she looks awful

    She has always been totally hopeless. That she is even being mentioned for leader is a sign of the dearth of talent in the Tory party.

    Mind you, she'd be better than Gove.
    Gove is top notch, he and Osborne would make a fantastic leadership team, for the Conservative Party and the nation, hopefully without you lot, you want your socialist state control, I hope you go it alone.
    Yawn.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited June 2014
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:



    To an extent, ultimately the enlightenment is incomplete whilst irrational belief systems hold such dominance.

    I don't think there's a very clear divide between rational and irrational belief systems. Jean Bodin, who advocated death for witches, was the most rational political and economic thinker of his time. Marxists believe that their arguments are highly rational. So do radical feminists.

    Not sure we can hope to eliminate irrational belief systems - some things which now seem to us commonplace - e.g. that slavery is wrong - will have seemed very eccentric in the past. What is perhaps more important is to fight belief systems which put all the money on their being right, with death the appropriate punishment for disagreement.
    I think that we often say "irrational" when we mean "unpleasant". The belief that slavery is justified is unpleasant, but it's certainly not irrational, from the point of view of the slaveowner.

    Slaveowning is a very interesting economic case study.

    It's good for the slave-owners in the near term, but arguably it is a dreadful system medium term because by making low productivity / low-wage (ahem) labour relatively more attractive it discourages capital investment.

    Consequently, over time those people with spare capital (i.e. slave owners) end up becoming increasingly less competitive and end up eroding their capital base.
    It is indeed. In fact, you could argue that, from the persepective of the slavers, slaves were capital rather than labour. They would purchase and use slaves as a dairy farmer does cattle. In places like the southern US, most of a plantation owners capital would be in slaves, and they regarded the breeding of human beings as capital accumulation, including pairing of desirable mates to bring about higher value slaves in the next generation. Come abolition, their capital was wiped out over night, which is why they fought so hard to stop it. Still, they were barbaric brutes to treat human beings in such a way, and traitors to their country to boot, so #### 'em.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:





    How much more evidence and polling do you need before you realize that even the LD want to get rid of Clegg in the election.
    It wouldn't hurt them to get rid of him, since they cant get rid of him now, they will do it in his constituency.
    Anyway Labour is smelling blood, they will go for it and the LD factions will refuse to help Clegg retain his seat in order to get rid off him.

    Labour went for it in the local elections last month . They smelled blood but it turned out to be their own as they finished 15% behind the Lib Dems .
    We are talking about Clegg here, not local councilors, Clegg is monumentally unpopular even in his own party.
    If he loses no one will shed a tear not even the LD.
    You clearly know nothing about Sheffield Hallam and even less about Lib Dems in general .
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Eagles alas there is mounting evidence that the Egyptians didn't use slave labour.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:





    How much more evidence and polling do you need before you realize that even the LD want to get rid of Clegg in the election.
    It wouldn't hurt them to get rid of him, since they cant get rid of him now, they will do it in his constituency.
    Anyway Labour is smelling blood, they will go for it and the LD factions will refuse to help Clegg retain his seat in order to get rid off him.

    Labour went for it in the local elections last month . They smelled blood but it turned out to be their own as they finished 15% behind the Lib Dems .
    We are talking about Clegg here, not local councilors, Clegg is monumentally unpopular even in his own party.
    If he loses no one will shed a tear not even the LD.
    You know a while back, one of the council elections in Fulwood, Labour made a big thing about the election being an opportunity to send Clegg a message, they plastered his face all over their leaflets, and made it all about Clegg.

    Guess what happened next.

    The Lib Dems won comfortably.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    ToryJim said:

    Eagles alas there is mounting evidence that the Egyptians didn't use slave labour.

    You mean the ten commandments film was wrong?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:




    How much more evidence and polling do you need before you realize that even the LD want to get rid of Clegg in the election.
    It wouldn't hurt them to get rid of him, since they cant get rid of him now, they will do it in his constituency.
    Anyway Labour is smelling blood, they will go for it and the LD factions will refuse to help Clegg retain his seat in order to get rid off him.

    Considering I know the seat very well and several Lib Dem activists in the seat, I'm assuming nurse hasn't given you your medication today.
    I'm not assuming your loyalty to the man clouds your judgement?
    Bunker mentality can be creeping.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:




    How much more evidence and polling do you need before you realize that even the LD want to get rid of Clegg in the election.
    It wouldn't hurt them to get rid of him, since they cant get rid of him now, they will do it in his constituency.
    Anyway Labour is smelling blood, they will go for it and the LD factions will refuse to help Clegg retain his seat in order to get rid off him.

    Considering I know the seat very well and several Lib Dem activists in the seat, I'm assuming nurse hasn't given you your medication today.
    I'm not assuming your loyalty to the man clouds your judgement?
    Bunker mentality can be creeping.
    TSE is a Conservative , you dolt .
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    ToryJim said:

    Eagles alas there is mounting evidence that the Egyptians didn't use slave labour.

    You mean the ten commandments film was wrong?
    Just a tad it's based on the Bible after all ;)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:




    How much more evidence and polling do you need before you realize that even the LD want to get rid of Clegg in the election.
    It wouldn't hurt them to get rid of him, since they cant get rid of him now, they will do it in his constituency.
    Anyway Labour is smelling blood, they will go for it and the LD factions will refuse to help Clegg retain his seat in order to get rid off him.

    Considering I know the seat very well and several Lib Dem activists in the seat, I'm assuming nurse hasn't given you your medication today.
    I'm not assuming your loyalty to the man clouds your judgement?
    Bunker mentality can be creeping.
    Oh my. You really are quite stupid aren't you.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited June 2014

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:



    To an extent, ultimately the enlightenment is incomplete whilst irrational belief systems hold such dominance.

    I don't think there's a very clear divide between rational and irrational belief systems. Jean Bodin, who advocated death for witches, was the most rational political and economic thinker of his time. Marxists believe that their arguments are highly rational. So do radical feminists.

    Not sure we can hope to eliminate irrational belief systems - some things which now seem to us commonplace - e.g. that slavery is wrong - will have seemed very eccentric in the past. What is perhaps more important is to fight belief systems which put all the money on their being right, with death the appropriate punishment for disagreement.
    The most prevaent belief system in this country that still believes such things is conservative Islam. What speaking out have you done about that Nick? Would you condemn actions like the assassination of Ka'b ibn al-Ashraf? Have you supported men like Gove who are fighting the good fight against the belief system that approves of such things?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Eagles alas there is mounting evidence that the Egyptians didn't use slave labour.

    You mean the ten commandments film was wrong?
    Just a tad it's based on the Bible after all ;)
    One of my all time favourite films references The Ten Commandments

    "Tell a person that you're the Metatron and they stare at you blankly. Mention something out of a Charlton Heston movie and suddenly everybody is a theology scholar."
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:




    How much more evidence and polling do you need before you realize that even the LD want to get rid of Clegg in the election.
    It wouldn't hurt them to get rid of him, since they cant get rid of him now, they will do it in his constituency.
    Anyway Labour is smelling blood, they will go for it and the LD factions will refuse to help Clegg retain his seat in order to get rid off him.

    Considering I know the seat very well and several Lib Dem activists in the seat, I'm assuming nurse hasn't given you your medication today.
    I'm not assuming your loyalty to the man clouds your judgement?
    Bunker mentality can be creeping.
    Oh my. You really are quite stupid aren't you.
    From a fan of slave labour?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:




    How much more evidence and polling do you need before you realize that even the LD want to get rid of Clegg in the election.
    It wouldn't hurt them to get rid of him, since they cant get rid of him now, they will do it in his constituency.
    Anyway Labour is smelling blood, they will go for it and the LD factions will refuse to help Clegg retain his seat in order to get rid off him.

    Considering I know the seat very well and several Lib Dem activists in the seat, I'm assuming nurse hasn't given you your medication today.
    I'm not assuming your loyalty to the man clouds your judgement?
    Bunker mentality can be creeping.
    Oh my. You really are quite stupid aren't you.
    From a fan of slave labour?
    It was a joke.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    'Scots Referendum: Jitters In Rival Camps'
    - Nobody can be sure which way the vote will go and there are understandable nerves on both sides, writes Sky's Adam Boulton

    http://news.sky.com/story/1278785/scots-referendum-jitters-in-rival-camps
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think that we often say "irrational" when we mean "unpleasant". The belief that slavery is justified is unpleasant, but it's certainly not irrational, from the point of view of the slaveowner.

    Slaveowning is a very interesting economic case study.

    It's good for the slave-owners in the near term, but arguably it is a dreadful system medium term because by making low productivity / low-wage (ahem) labour relatively more attractive it discourages capital investment.

    Consequently, over time those people with spare capital (i.e. slave owners) end up becoming increasingly less competitive and end up eroding their capital base.
    Slave-owning was a rational economic system in a pre-industrial age, when technology was minimal and innovation near enough non-existent.

    That said, a novel I started writing but have since put on the back-burner deals with slavery in an imagined early 20th century.
    Not convinced - I think the weaknesses were still there (e.g. why invest in a watermill if you can just use slave labour instead) but accept that in a pre-industrial society the importance of capital was much diminished, so the effect is much more gradual
    Well you'll just have to buy it when it's published then (which may be some time).

    However, it's worth remembering that it did survive in (parts of) the US into the second half of the 19th century and would have survived several decades at least longer had the South not pulled their own temple down on top of them.

    One reason why it would have survived longer is because in the case of the Southern antebellum US, Marx was dead wrong: the economic system was built on top of the political (or, if you prefer, social), one. The South was absolutely wedded to the notion of slavery not simply as an economic model but as a system integral to their identity. Indeed, it's notable that in the 1840s and 1850s, the white leaders moved their arguments from it being a 'necessary evil' - which was becoming undermined following emancipation in the British colonies and elsewhere - and promoting it as a 'positive good' for both black and white alike.

    That such an argument was, to put it mildly, a bit iffy is beside the point: they wanted to make it in spite of the logic and in spite of the economic benefits of the free market because they were absolutely committed to their peculiar institution and, in via the Jim Crow laws, remained so through to the 1960s at least.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:




    How much more evidence and polling do you need before you realize that even the LD want to get rid of Clegg in the election.
    It wouldn't hurt them to get rid of him, since they cant get rid of him now, they will do it in his constituency.
    Anyway Labour is smelling blood, they will go for it and the LD factions will refuse to help Clegg retain his seat in order to get rid off him.

    Considering I know the seat very well and several Lib Dem activists in the seat, I'm assuming nurse hasn't given you your medication today.
    I'm not assuming your loyalty to the man clouds your judgement?
    Bunker mentality can be creeping.
    Oh my. You really are quite stupid aren't you.
    From a fan of slave labour?
    Oh good grief
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:




    How much more evidence and polling do you need before you realize that even the LD want to get rid of Clegg in the election.
    It wouldn't hurt them to get rid of him, since they cant get rid of him now, they will do it in his constituency.
    Anyway Labour is smelling blood, they will go for it and the LD factions will refuse to help Clegg retain his seat in order to get rid off him.

    Considering I know the seat very well and several Lib Dem activists in the seat, I'm assuming nurse hasn't given you your medication today.
    I'm not assuming your loyalty to the man clouds your judgement?
    Bunker mentality can be creeping.
    Oh my. You really are quite stupid aren't you.
    From a fan of slave labour?
    It was a joke.
    Well, so supporting Nick Clegg.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Triumphant Tories soaring to guaranteed victory on a magnificent 28%.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:




    How much more evidence and polling do you need before you realize that even the LD want to get rid of Clegg in the election.
    It wouldn't hurt them to get rid of him, since they cant get rid of him now, they will do it in his constituency.
    Anyway Labour is smelling blood, they will go for it and the LD factions will refuse to help Clegg retain his seat in order to get rid off him.

    Considering I know the seat very well and several Lib Dem activists in the seat, I'm assuming nurse hasn't given you your medication today.
    I'm not assuming your loyalty to the man clouds your judgement?
    Bunker mentality can be creeping.
    Oh my. You really are quite stupid aren't you.
    From a fan of slave labour?
    It was a joke.
    Well, so supporting Nick Clegg.
    I'm not supporting Nick Clegg, in eleven months time I shall be voting Tory in Sheffield Hallam.

    The Lib Dem activist base in the seat is strong, they have a good targeting and records of supporters in the seat.

    I grew up in the seat, and spent the first 18/19 years of my life in the seat, and my parents have lived here for over 30 years, and I moved back last year.

    I'm going out on a limb and say I know the seat better than you.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322


    One reason why it would have survived longer is because in the case of the Southern antebellum US, Marx was dead wrong: the economic system was built on top of the political (or, if you prefer, social), one. The South was absolutely wedded to the notion of slavery not simply as an economic model but as a system integral to their identity. Indeed, it's notable that in the 1840s and 1850s, the white leaders moved their arguments from it being a 'necessary evil' - which was becoming undermined following emancipation in the British colonies and elsewhere - and promoting it as a 'positive good' for both black and white alike..

    That is an argument FOR the Marxist view. The economic system of slavery came first, and then the political and social ideology later emerged to justify it.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    As for the Ashcroft poll its too early, there will be not much movement in the polls except perhaps a gradual UKIP fall as the media will switch into off mode until the conference season, politicians and punters can relax during the summer.
    If there are no scandals or resignations of course.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Best prices:

    Dundee East
    SNP 2/5 (PP)
    Lab 11/4 (Lad)
    UKIP 100/1
    Con 100/1
    LD 200/1

    Dundee West
    Lab 1/5 (Lad)
    SNP 7/2 (PP)
    UKIP 100/1
    Con 100/1
    LD 100/1
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758



    Well you'll just have to buy it when it's published then (which may be some time).

    However, it's worth remembering that it did survive in (parts of) the US into the second half of the 19th century and would have survived several decades at least longer had the South not pulled their own temple down on top of them.

    One reason why it would have survived longer is because in the case of the Southern antebellum US, Marx was dead wrong: the economic system was built on top of the political (or, if you prefer, social), one. The South was absolutely wedded to the notion of slavery not simply as an economic model but as a system integral to their identity. Indeed, it's notable that in the 1840s and 1850s, the white leaders moved their arguments from it being a 'necessary evil' - which was becoming undermined following emancipation in the British colonies and elsewhere - and promoting it as a 'positive good' for both black and white alike.

    That such an argument was, to put it mildly, a bit iffy is beside the point: they wanted to make it in spite of the logic and in spite of the economic benefits of the free market because they were absolutely committed to their peculiar institution and, in via the Jim Crow laws, remained so through to the 1960s at least.

    It's the South which is really driving my thinking: they were originally far richer than the Yankees, but didn't industrialise nearly as quickly (despite an abundance of the necessary resource e.g. in Virginia): and it was the relative industrialisation and wealth of the North than enable them to triumph in the Civil War. It was the fact that they were falling behind in the economic war that led to it becoming such an important part of their cultural identity both before and after the actual fighting.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    ToryJim said:
    - "... Mr Cameron has been declining, since he is rightly wary of allowing the independence debate be painted as Heroic Scottish Nationalist vs Sneering English Tory."

    Mr Cameron could stop sneering. But he chooses not to.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    ToryJim said:
    Gordon Brown really is pure poison. It still beggars belief that the Labour Party ever let him anywhere near power.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    ToryJim said:
    Oh really, Brown's intervention is noticeable only for the fact he has taken a passing interest in his consituents. The man's a joke.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/06/meet-gordon-brown-comedian/
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    GIN1138 said:

    ToryJim said:
    Gordon Brown really is pure poison. It still beggars belief that the Labour Party ever let him anywhere near power.

    Indeed.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    ToryJim said:
    - "... Mr Cameron has been declining, since he is rightly wary of allowing the independence debate be painted as Heroic Scottish Nationalist vs Sneering English Tory."

    Mr Cameron could stop sneering. But he chooses not to.
    Mr Salmond could stop talking total bullshit, but he chooses not to.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Socrates said:


    One reason why it would have survived longer is because in the case of the Southern antebellum US, Marx was dead wrong: the economic system was built on top of the political (or, if you prefer, social), one. The South was absolutely wedded to the notion of slavery not simply as an economic model but as a system integral to their identity. Indeed, it's notable that in the 1840s and 1850s, the white leaders moved their arguments from it being a 'necessary evil' - which was becoming undermined following emancipation in the British colonies and elsewhere - and promoting it as a 'positive good' for both black and white alike..

    That is an argument FOR the Marxist view. The economic system of slavery came first, and then the political and social ideology later emerged to justify it.
    It's probably both. You're right that the economic system came first and then the politics were built on top. However, by the mid-19th century, that should have been ripe for replacement, yet the southern industrialists - who should under Marxist theory have been in the vanguard of a bourgeois revolution - were just as signed up to it as the plantation-owning aristocracy or the poor whites. At that point, the two flipped and it was the economic that became built on the politico-social.
  • It's probably both. You're right that the economic system came first and then the politics were built on top. However, by the mid-19th century, that should have been ripe for replacement, yet the southern industrialists - who should under Marxist theory have been in the vanguard of a bourgeois revolution - were just as signed up to it as the plantation-owning aristocracy or the poor whites. At that point, the two flipped and it was the economic that became built on the politico-social.

    The Marxists would argue that the Southern relations of production became fetters on the already developed productive forces. They had to be burst asunder. They were burst asunder.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    ToryJim said:
    Because the fine only applies if you dispute the case, I guess it'll just mean people don't argue. These seem to me quite controversial:

    Offences such as television licence evasion, selling of alcohol to a drunk person or being drunk and disorderly in a public place - known as “level three” offences - will rise from £1,000 to £4,000.

    How is "drunk" defined, and how exactly is a pub keeper to determine it in a crowded room?

This discussion has been closed.