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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The coalition parties make progress in this week’s Ashcroft phone poll: LAB, UKIP & GRN all down

For the LDs and Nick Clegg this poll will come as a huge relief. Last week’s 6% was the lowest for the yellows in a phone poll in more than two decades.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Sleazy broken Lab and UKIP on the slide.

That said, Lord A's polls are quite volatile.

frpenkridge

BBC send reporter to Dundee to interview two politicians, who are in Glasgow. Sky sends Kay to look at the boats in Oban harbour.

OblitusSumMe

From Lord Ashcroft's write-up:

the Green Party’s score of 7% is seven times what they polled at the last general election.

Have you made a mistake or has his Lordship done so?

Anorak

"For the LDs and Nick Clegg this poll will come as a huge relief. Last week’s 6% was the lowest for the yellows in a phone poll in more than two decades."

When it's a huge relief that your party is mired in single figures after polling 23% in the last general election, you know you're f*#ked. You'd need a heart of stone, etc.

ToryJim

Gove really is a class act, never seems to get flustered.

Anorak

OblitusSumMe said:

From Lord Ashcroft's write-up:

the Green Party’s score of 7% is seven times what they polled at the last general election.

Have you made a mistake or has his Lordship done so?One is comparing to the last GE, and the other to the previous ashcroft poll. Or have I missed something? Those left-leaning protest votes have to go somewhere...

Flightpath

frpenkridge said:

BBC send reporter to Dundee to interview two politicians, who are in Glasgow. Sky sends Kay to look at the boats in Oban harbour.

What future do we have for democracy? It's terrible isn't it? And this is the press which has such a high opinion of itself that it refuses to be independently regulated.

OblitusSumMe

Anorak said:

OblitusSumMe said:

From Lord Ashcroft's write-up:

the Green Party’s score of 7% is seven times what they polled at the last general election.

Have you made a mistake or has his Lordship done so?

One is comparing to the last GE, and the other to the previous ashcroft poll. Or have I missed something? Those left-leaning protest votes have to go somewhere...In Mike's header he has the Green poll score on 5%, down from 7% in the previous poll, whereas Ashcroft still has them on 7%.

taffys

I see some of these trojan horse schools banned Raffles. Wonder what it was about rakish fin du siecle gentleman thieves that they found particularly offensive?

Anorak

OblitusSumMe said:

Anorak said:

OblitusSumMe said:

From Lord Ashcroft's write-up:

the Green Party’s score of 7% is seven times what they polled at the last general election.

Have you made a mistake or has his Lordship done so?

One is comparing to the last GE, and the other to the previous ashcroft poll. Or have I missed something? Those left-leaning protest votes have to go somewhere...

In Mike's header he has the Green poll score on 5%, down from 7% in the previous poll, whereas Ashcroft still has them on 7%.Ah. I had indeed missed something!

DavidL

I seem to recall predicting this last Monday. I must be psychic. Now who is going to win the 3.00pm tomorrow at ... nah.

Richard_Nabavi

So, the executive summary is:

- Theresa May effortlessly brushed off Labour because, for some inexplicable reason, Labour MPs wasted the entire session on asking repeatedly about a very minor detail of the timing of updates to the Home Office website, and

- Michael Gove effortlessly brushed off Labour because he is Michael Gove.

That about it?

Slackbladder

Just remembered it was Rik Mayall which played Lord Flashheart which called Blackadder 'Slackbladder'

Rik, I owe you everything...

Richard_Nabavi

OblitusSumMe said:

From Lord Ashcroft's write-up:

the Green Party’s score of 7% is seven times what they polled at the last general election.

Worth pointing out that the Greens stood in only about half of the constituencies.

ToryJim

Richard_Nabavi said:

So, the executive summary is:

- Theresa May effortlessly brushed off Labour because, for some inexplicable reason, Labour MPs wasted the entire session on asking repeatedly about a very minor detail of the timing of updates to the Home Office website, and

- Michael Gove effortless brushed off Labour because he is Michael Gove.

That about it?

Yup sounds about the size of it.

AlastairMeeks

taffys said:

I see some of these trojan horse schools banned Raffles. Wonder what it was about rakish fin du siecle gentleman thieves that they found particularly offensive?

My parents' church did not allow raffles until the late 1970s and they are still somewhat disapproved of by many in the congregation.

TheScreamingEagles

Why Sheffield Rocks

The Independent ‏@Independent 45s

Three police cars are chasing a lost Highland cow along the streets in Sheffield

http://ind.pn/1hAuc0z

pic.twitter.com/0ARTDavOH7

Tissue_Price

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sleazy broken Lab and UKIP on the slide.

That said, Lord A's polls are quite volatile.

To be honest, most of the other pollsters don't seem volatile enough, given the vicissitudes of random sampling. I wonder whether any smoothing is applied to their weightings?

And of course YouGov have the benefit of a panel approach.

isam

ToryJim said:

Gove really is a class act, never seems to get flustered.

I agree, he is different class

taffys

My parents' church did not allow raffles until the late 1970s and they are still somewhat disapproved of by many in the congregation.

Coming from Wales I can remember 'dry areas' where pubs did not open on a Sunday.

TheScreamingEagles

taffys said:

I see some of these trojan horse schools banned Raffles. Wonder what it was about rakish fin du siecle gentleman thieves that they found particularly offensive?

I think it is seen as a form of gambling, I believe some Presbyterians feel the same thing.

Neil

Were the Greens really ahead of the Lib Dems in the last Ashcroft poll? I remember them being at 7% but it doesnt seem to have registered that this was ahead of the Lib Dems. Labour should get a good little boost at GE time when most of that 7% realise they dont have a Green candidate to vote for or the Green candidate hasnt got a chance where they live.

TheScreamingEagles

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sleazy broken Lab and UKIP on the slide.

That said, Lord A's polls are quite volatile.

To be honest, most of the other pollsters don't seem volatile enough, given the vicissitudes of random sampling. I wonder whether any smoothing is applied to their weightings?

And of course YouGov have the benefit of a panel approach.

It maybe a methodology issue with Populus, who conduct these polls, because their online polls can be volatile as well.

The only other pollster which such volatility is Ipsos-Mori, but that's more down to their certainty to vote filter.

Alanbrooke

taffys said:

My parents' church did not allow raffles until the late 1970s and they are still somewhat disapproved of by many in the congregation.

Coming from Wales I can remember 'dry areas' where pubs did not open on a Sunday.

We have "dry areas" still in Warwickhire.

The effing breweries have closed half the village pubs :-(

Richard_Nabavi

TheScreamingEagles said:

It maybe a methodology issue with Populus, who conduct these polls, because their online polls can be volatile as well.

Isn't it just the sample size? After eliminating Don't Knows and adjusting for certainty to vote, the noble Lord is left with around 500 respondents. Plus, as Oblitus has pointed out, he has to scale up his C2/C3 respondents substantially, which further increases the statistical error.

ToryJim

TheScreamingEagles said:

taffys said:

I see some of these trojan horse schools banned Raffles. Wonder what it was about rakish fin du siecle gentleman thieves that they found particularly offensive?

I think it is seen as a form of gambling, I believe some Presbyterians feel the same thing.

I seem to remember it stems from distaste over the casting of lots to divide the garments of Christ at the crucifixion.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It maybe a methodology issue with Populus, who conduct these polls, because their online polls can be volatile as well.

Isn't it just the sample size? After eliminating Don't Knows and adjusting for certainty to vote, the noble Lord is left with around 500 respondents. Plus, as Oblitus has pointed out, he has to scale up his C2/C3 respondents substantially, which further increases the statistical error.

Yeah that!

TheScreamingEagles

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

taffys said:

I see some of these trojan horse schools banned Raffles. Wonder what it was about rakish fin du siecle gentleman thieves that they found particularly offensive?

I think it is seen as a form of gambling, I believe some Presbyterians feel the same thing.

I seem to remember it stems from distaste over the casting of lots to divide the garments of Christ at the crucifixion.

You learn something new every day.

Easterross

Afternoon all and very sad about Alan B'stard alias Rik Mayall dying.

Todays polls are suggesting that the Labour increases last week were just outliers. Indeed given how badly the pollsters estimated the Tory and Labour votes at the 3 actual elections in the past month, isn't reality more like to be Tory 33-35, Labour 31-33, LibDem 8-10 and UKIP 10-12?

SKY doing an excellent day of coverage across Scotland recognising the 100 days until the Indy Ref. Puts the BBC to shame big style.

NickPalmer

Looks like reversion to trend - we all thought the last one was an outlier. Have we seen today's Populus yet?

Edit: found it: 36/35/9/14. Con and Lab +1 at expense of "others".

TheWatcher

Alanbrooke said:

taffys said:

My parents' church did not allow raffles until the late 1970s and they are still somewhat disapproved of by many in the congregation.

Coming from Wales I can remember 'dry areas' where pubs did not open on a Sunday.

We have "dry areas" still in Warwickhire.

The effing breweries have closed half the village pubs :-(

Would that be because the effing villagers weren't drinking in them?

Speedy

Easterross said:

Afternoon all and very sad about Alan B'stard alias Rik Mayall dying.

Todays polls are suggesting that the Labour increases last week were just outliers. Indeed given how badly the pollsters estimated the Tory and Labour votes at the 3 actual elections in the past month, isn't reality more like to be Tory 33-35, Labour 31-33, LibDem 8-10 and UKIP 10-12?

SKY doing an excellent day of coverage across Scotland recognising the 100 days until the Indy Ref. Puts the BBC to shame big style.

Now that death makes you feel old, though he only died aged 56.

philiph

Poor old Labour.

There they are, sitting pretty with a all that lovely rock solid core vote from 2010, added on to that is a whole batch of sticky RedLibDems, that is bound to have them soaring away at way over the magic 35%. Way over, to borrow a Gordonism, they are exceeding 35% by a full healthy and hearty -2%.

If they can't get a higher poll now (and I know YouGov is higher) while they should be garnering the support of protest voices, how will they in 2015? The momentum is surely with them at the moment. Just that it is in the wrong direction.

Pulpstar

DavidL said:

I seem to recall predicting this last Monday. I must be psychic. Now who is going to win the 3.00pm tomorrow at ... nah.

http://www1.skysports.com/racing/form-profiles/horse/595681/cameron-highland

Cameron Highland faces Independent Spirit in a match race in September.

http://www1.skysports.com/racing/form-profiles/horse/80528/independent-spirit

Cam fav, 4-9; 11-4 the betting.

HurstLlama

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

taffys said:

I see some of these trojan horse schools banned Raffles. Wonder what it was about rakish fin du siecle gentleman thieves that they found particularly offensive?

I think it is seen as a form of gambling, I believe some Presbyterians feel the same thing.

I seem to remember it stems from distaste over the casting of lots to divide the garments of Christ at the crucifixion.

Maybe you are correct, but the Roman Catholic church and, hence the CofE, has never been unpleasant about gambling or gamblers. I suspect that the religious antagonism came from the extreme protestant movement which objected to anyone enjoying themselves.

OblitusSumMe

Richard_Nabavi said:

OblitusSumMe said:

From Lord Ashcroft's write-up:

the Green Party’s score of 7% is seven times what they polled at the last general election.

Worth pointing out that the Greens stood in only about half of the constituencies.Ye-es, but the Greens stood in 128 more constituencies in 2010 than in 2005, but their national total of votes was only 7,485 higher, when the overall turnout was more than 2.5 million higher.

I very much doubt that spending another £150k on 300 more deposits will result in a doubling of the Green Party vote, all other things being equal.

philiph

HurstLlama said:

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

taffys said:

I see some of these trojan horse schools banned Raffles. Wonder what it was about rakish fin du siecle gentleman thieves that they found particularly offensive?

I think it is seen as a form of gambling, I believe some Presbyterians feel the same thing.

I seem to remember it stems from distaste over the casting of lots to divide the garments of Christ at the crucifixion.

Maybe you are correct, but the Roman Catholic church and, hence the CofE, has never been unpleasant about gambling or gamblers. I suspect that the religious antagonism came from the extreme protestant movement which objected to anyone enjoying themselves.

Society of Friends are averse to gambling as well.

Alanbrooke

TheWatcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

taffys said:

My parents' church did not allow raffles until the late 1970s and they are still somewhat disapproved of by many in the congregation.

Coming from Wales I can remember 'dry areas' where pubs did not open on a Sunday.

We have "dry areas" still in Warwickhire.

The effing breweries have closed half the village pubs :-(

Would that be because the effing villagers weren't drinking in them?

Yes. First we lost the passing trade because of harsher drink driving laws, then we lost the committed drinkers because of cheap supermarket prices, the smokers were told to smoke at home and then the brewery doubled the rent. There's only so much I'm prepared to drink in a week and it's not enough to keep my landlord in business.

ToryJim

HurstLlama said:

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

taffys said:

I see some of these trojan horse schools banned Raffles. Wonder what it was about rakish fin du siecle gentleman thieves that they found particularly offensive?

I think it is seen as a form of gambling, I believe some Presbyterians feel the same thing.

I seem to remember it stems from distaste over the casting of lots to divide the garments of Christ at the crucifixion.

Maybe you are correct, but the Roman Catholic church and, hence the CofE, has never been unpleasant about gambling or gamblers. I suspect that the religious antagonism came from the extreme protestant movement which objected to anyone enjoying themselves.

Oh the Protestant reformation has a lot to answer for.

OblitusSumMe

Neil said:

Were the Greens really ahead of the Lib Dems in the last Ashcroft poll? I remember them being at 7% but it doesnt seem to have registered that this was ahead of the Lib Dems.

Yes, they were - and they still are in this poll if you ignore* the certainty to vote and spiral of silence adjustments.

I deliberately tried to avoid making much of it last week because it's obvious that it will subside as memories of using a PR voting system fade away.

* Which you shouldn't, because that would be silly, but it's interesting to point out anyway.

HurstLlama

TheWatcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

taffys said:

My parents' church did not allow raffles until the late 1970s and they are still somewhat disapproved of by many in the congregation.

Coming from Wales I can remember 'dry areas' where pubs did not open on a Sunday.

We have "dry areas" still in Warwickhire.

The effing breweries have closed half the village pubs :-(

Would that be because the effing villagers weren't drinking in them?

Probably because the effin PubCos have put up prices beyond the effin villagers ability to pay; which in itself is due to effin governments sticking their effin oar into matters and markets they don't effin understand.

Socrates

ToryJim said:

HurstLlama said:

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

taffys said:

I see some of these trojan horse schools banned Raffles. Wonder what it was about rakish fin du siecle gentleman thieves that they found particularly offensive?

I think it is seen as a form of gambling, I believe some Presbyterians feel the same thing.

I seem to remember it stems from distaste over the casting of lots to divide the garments of Christ at the crucifixion.

Maybe you are correct, but the Roman Catholic church and, hence the CofE, has never been unpleasant about gambling or gamblers. I suspect that the religious antagonism came from the extreme protestant movement which objected to anyone enjoying themselves.

Oh the Protestant reformation has a lot to answer for.

And a lot we owe it for also. The concept of a priesthood of all believers whereby everyone could come to their own beliefs about the Bible was a major step on the way to the Enlightenment. It's not a coincidence that constitutionalism developed in several Protestant European countries.

Alanbrooke

HurstLlama said:

TheWatcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

taffys said:

My parents' church did not allow raffles until the late 1970s and they are still somewhat disapproved of by many in the congregation.

Coming from Wales I can remember 'dry areas' where pubs did not open on a Sunday.

We have "dry areas" still in Warwickhire.

The effing breweries have closed half the village pubs :-(

Would that be because the effing villagers weren't drinking in them?

Probably because the effin PubCos have put up prices beyond the effin villagers ability to pay; which in itself is due to effin governments sticking their effin oar into matters and markets they don't effin understand.

Did David Willetts ever work on pub legislation ? Looks just like his kind of balls-up :-)

Anorak

Following on from the comments on pub closures, do any of you brew your own beer?

Been toying with the idea but not sure:
a) how expensive it is (starting from scratch)
b) how difficult it is
c) whether it's worth the effort

I've no real trouble paying for beer, but thought doing it myself would (could?) be fun. I'm talking kits here, not making it from actual hops, etc.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

HurstLlama said:

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

taffys said:

I see some of these trojan horse schools banned Raffles. Wonder what it was about rakish fin du siecle gentleman thieves that they found particularly offensive?

I think it is seen as a form of gambling, I believe some Presbyterians feel the same thing.

I seem to remember it stems from distaste over the casting of lots to divide the garments of Christ at the crucifixion.

Maybe you are correct, but the Roman Catholic church and, hence the CofE, has never been unpleasant about gambling or gamblers. I suspect that the religious antagonism came from the extreme protestant movement which objected to anyone enjoying themselves.

Yes, the joy of sobriety and self denial

TheScreamingEagles

Anorak said:

Following on from the comments on pub closures, do any of you brew your own beer?

Been toying with the idea but not sure:
a) how expensive it is (starting from scratch)
b) how difficult it is
c) whether it's worth the effort

I've no real trouble paying for beer, but thought doing it myself would (could?) be fun.

Home made alcohol is a bit like home made porn.

Sounds like a good idea at the time, but when you try it, and see and sample your product, you think ewwwww, what was I thinking? Was I thinking?

Richard_Nabavi

O/T I see that Shadsy has reinstated the Ladbrokes constituency markets

Anorak

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anorak said:

Following on from the comments on pub closures, do any of you brew your own beer?

Been toying with the idea but not sure:
a) how expensive it is (starting from scratch)
b) how difficult it is
c) whether it's worth the effort

I've no real trouble paying for beer, but thought doing it myself would (could?) be fun.

Home made alcohol is a bit like home made porn.

Sounds like a good idea at the time, but when you try it, and see and sample your product, you think ewwwww, what was I thinking? Was I thinking?

You're not doing it right.

Alanbrooke

Good to see travelling the world hasn't made Gordon Brown any less of an idiot.

HurstLlama

Alanbrooke said:

HurstLlama said:

TheWatcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

taffys said:

My parents' church did not allow raffles until the late 1970s and they are still somewhat disapproved of by many in the congregation.

Coming from Wales I can remember 'dry areas' where pubs did not open on a Sunday.

We have "dry areas" still in Warwickhire.

The effing breweries have closed half the village pubs :-(

Would that be because the effing villagers weren't drinking in them?

Probably because the effin PubCos have put up prices beyond the effin villagers ability to pay; which in itself is due to effin governments sticking their effin oar into matters and markets they don't effin understand.

Did David Willetts ever work on pub legislation ? Looks just like his kind of balls-up :-)

He might have done as a very junior SpAD, I wouldn't know. However the man responsible for killing the pub trade in England is no less a person than David Ivor Young, Baron Young of Graffham.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anorak said:

Following on from the comments on pub closures, do any of you brew your own beer?

Been toying with the idea but not sure:
a) how expensive it is (starting from scratch)
b) how difficult it is
c) whether it's worth the effort

I've no real trouble paying for beer, but thought doing it myself would (could?) be fun.

Home made alcohol is a bit like home made porn.

Sounds like a good idea at the time, but when you try it, and see and sample your product, you think ewwwww, what was I thinking? Was I thinking?

My dad used to make his own bitter, lager and wine when I was younger. The beer cost less than 10p a pint to make and his mates certainly seemed to like it

ToryJim

Socrates said:

ToryJim said:

HurstLlama said:

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

taffys said:

I see some of these trojan horse schools banned Raffles. Wonder what it was about rakish fin du siecle gentleman thieves that they found particularly offensive?

I think it is seen as a form of gambling, I believe some Presbyterians feel the same thing.

I seem to remember it stems from distaste over the casting of lots to divide the garments of Christ at the crucifixion.

Maybe you are correct, but the Roman Catholic church and, hence the CofE, has never been unpleasant about gambling or gamblers. I suspect that the religious antagonism came from the extreme protestant movement which objected to anyone enjoying themselves.

Oh the Protestant reformation has a lot to answer for.

And a lot we owe it for also. The concept of a priesthood of all believers whereby everyone could come to their own beliefs about the Bible was a major step on the way to the Enlightenment. It's not a coincidence that constitutionalism developed in several Protestant European countries.

To an extent, ultimately the enlightenment is incomplete whilst irrational belief systems hold such dominance.

TGOHF

Tony spoiling Gordon's big day ?

http://newsthump.com/2014/06/09/scotland-may-already-have-wmds-claims-tony-blair/

OblitusSumMe

Anorak said:

Following on from the comments on pub closures, do any of you brew your own beer?

Been toying with the idea but not sure:
a) how expensive it is (starting from scratch)
b) how difficult it is
c) whether it's worth the effort

I've no real trouble paying for beer, but thought doing it myself would (could?) be fun. I'm talking kits here, not making it from actual hops, etc.

a) It's one of those things where you can spend as much as you want on it, but if you look in the right places you can pick up some of the necessary equipment fairly cheaply.

b) The few people I know who have tried home brewing have produced good stuff at the end of it, but we're talking PhDs in physics and toxicology, so...

c) None of the people I know who have brewed in the past have the time for it anymore, but I think they're all very glad that they did so at the time.

Sunil_Prasannan

Easterross said:

Afternoon all and very sad about Alan B'stard alias Rik Mayall dying.

My favourites were Lord Flashheart in Blackadder and of course, Richie in Bottom. RIP!

isam

The idiot Hodges using the oldest left wing tactic in the book

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 34m
To be fair to @GoodwinMJ he's totally abandoned any pretence of being objective towards Ukip. Just a cheerleader now.


Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 1m
.@DPJHodges pointing out basic electoral arithmetic is not "cheerleading" for Ukip. Questioning my objectivity is low, even for you Dan.

Alanbrooke

HurstLlama said:

Alanbrooke said:

HurstLlama said:

TheWatcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

taffys said:

My parents' church did not allow raffles until the late 1970s and they are still somewhat disapproved of by many in the congregation.

Coming from Wales I can remember 'dry areas' where pubs did not open on a Sunday.

We have "dry areas" still in Warwickhire.

The effing breweries have closed half the village pubs :-(

Would that be because the effing villagers weren't drinking in them?

Probably because the effin PubCos have put up prices beyond the effin villagers ability to pay; which in itself is due to effin governments sticking their effin oar into matters and markets they don't effin understand.

Did David Willetts ever work on pub legislation ? Looks just like his kind of balls-up :-)

He might have done as a very junior SpAD, I wouldn't know. However the man responsible for killing the pub trade in England is no less a person than David Ivor Young, Baron Young of Graffham.

You are of course correct Mr L. Isn't it ironic that conservative politicians just can't resist damaging their own constituencies ?

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Nabavi said:

O/T I see that Shadsy has reinstated the Ladbrokes constituency markets

Good to see that we have some serious news today.

ToryJim

Interesting suggestion in this piece that Reinfeldt could be a compromise candidate if Juncker is junked.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27757991

Smarmeron

@Anorak
"do any of you brew your own beer"

Not now, but that's because I don't drink much beer these days.

Best thing to do is to find a specialty homebrew shop and talk to them.
A friend tried a "premium kit", and said to the store owner how disappointed he was with the result. As he was a regular, the owner gave him a free replacement, and a bag of gypsum.(Glasgow water is very soft)
It's like very slow cooking, follow the instructions carefully till you get the hang, then experiment.

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

O/T I see that Shadsy has reinstated the Ladbrokes constituency markets

Good to see that we have some serious news today.

All the market are here.

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/UK-General-Election/Next-General-Election-Constituency-Betting/Politics-N-1z140vgZ1z140v7Z1z141ne/

Anything that stands out for you?

AlastairMeeks

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

O/T I see that Shadsy has reinstated the Ladbrokes constituency markets

Good to see that we have some serious news today.

All the market are here.

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/UK-General-Election/Next-General-Election-Constituency-Betting/Politics-N-1z140vgZ1z140v7Z1z141ne/

Anything that stands out for you?

I shall need to pore over this at home this evening. This is a moment I've been waiting for.

Neil

isam said:

The idiot Hodges using the oldest left wing tactic in the book

Because no right winger has ever questioned an opponent's objectivity?!

Luckyguy1983

ToryJim said:

Socrates said:

ToryJim said:

HurstLlama said:

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

taffys said:

I see some of these trojan horse schools banned Raffles. Wonder what it was about rakish fin du siecle gentleman thieves that they found particularly offensive?

I think it is seen as a form of gambling, I believe some Presbyterians feel the same thing.

I seem to remember it stems from distaste over the casting of lots to divide the garments of Christ at the crucifixion.

Maybe you are correct, but the Roman Catholic church and, hence the CofE, has never been unpleasant about gambling or gamblers. I suspect that the religious antagonism came from the extreme protestant movement which objected to anyone enjoying themselves.

Oh the Protestant reformation has a lot to answer for.

And a lot we owe it for also. The concept of a priesthood of all believers whereby everyone could come to their own beliefs about the Bible was a major step on the way to the Enlightenment. It's not a coincidence that constitutionalism developed in several Protestant European countries.

To an extent, ultimately the enlightenment is incomplete whilst irrational belief systems hold such dominance.

There's nothing irrational about Religious faith. The irrationality lies with those who don't believe but feel they must convince everyone else not to believe either.

TheScreamingEagles

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

O/T I see that Shadsy has reinstated the Ladbrokes constituency markets

Good to see that we have some serious news today.

All the market are here.

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/UK-General-Election/Next-General-Election-Constituency-Betting/Politics-N-1z140vgZ1z140v7Z1z141ne/

Anything that stands out for you?

Free money alerts

Labour to gain Manchester Withington 1/10 - 10% return in a year not bad

LD to hold Hallam, 1/4 - 25% return in a year.

Better than a bank

Anorak

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

O/T I see that Shadsy has reinstated the Ladbrokes constituency markets

Good to see that we have some serious news today.

All the market are here.

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/UK-General-Election/Next-General-Election-Constituency-Betting/Politics-N-1z140vgZ1z140v7Z1z141ne/

Anything that stands out for you?

I shall need to pore over this at home this evening. This is a moment I've been waiting for.

It sometimes appears to me as though Shadsy uses PB to "beta test" his odds. Adjustments seem to follow very closely behind tips...

Sean_F

ToryJim said:

Socrates said:

ToryJim said:

HurstLlama said:

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

taffys said:

I see some of these trojan horse schools banned Raffles. Wonder what it was about rakish fin du siecle gentleman thieves that they found particularly offensive?

I think it is seen as a form of gambling, I believe some Presbyterians feel the same thing.

I seem to remember it stems from distaste over the casting of lots to divide the garments of Christ at the crucifixion.

Maybe you are correct, but the Roman Catholic church and, hence the CofE, has never been unpleasant about gambling or gamblers. I suspect that the religious antagonism came from the extreme protestant movement which objected to anyone enjoying themselves.

Oh the Protestant reformation has a lot to answer for.

And a lot we owe it for also. The concept of a priesthood of all believers whereby everyone could come to their own beliefs about the Bible was a major step on the way to the Enlightenment. It's not a coincidence that constitutionalism developed in several Protestant European countries.

To an extent, ultimately the enlightenment is incomplete whilst irrational belief systems hold such dominance.

I don't think there's a very clear divide between rational and irrational belief systems. Jean Bodin, who advocated death for witches, was the most rational political and economic thinker of his time. Marxists believe that their arguments are highly rational. So do radical feminists.

Smarmeron

@Anorak
You don't even have to go to the expense of buying a "brewbin". A large sturdy cardboard box and a extra large white plastic binbag sealed loosely at the top with an elastic band does service as bin and airlock.

Ishmael_X

Islam permits gambling but only on horse and camel races, and archery. See under maisir.

TheScreamingEagles

Neil said:

isam said:

The idiot Hodges using the oldest left wing tactic in the book

Because no right winger has ever questioned an opponent's objectivity?!

No Kipper has ever questioned Mike's objectivity either.

Richard_Nabavi

TheScreamingEagles said:

LD to hold Hallam, 1/4 - 25% return in a year.

1/3 at Hills

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LD to hold Hallam, 1/4 - 25% return in a year.

1/3 at Hills

Thanks.

TheScreamingEagles

Grrr Shadsy, UKIP 4/1 to take Rotherham is a bit mean.

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

Neil said:

isam said:

The idiot Hodges using the oldest left wing tactic in the book

Because no right winger has ever questioned an opponent's objectivity?!

No Kipper has ever questioned Mike's objectivity either.

That is beyond question

anotherDave

"UKIP Deputy Treasurer Andrew Reid will become the party’s Treasurer from July 1, it has been agreed.

Mr Reid will take over from Stuart Wheeler who is stepping down after three years in the role."

http://www.ukip.org/new_treasurer_for_ukip

TheScreamingEagles

13/8 on the SNP taking Danny's seat.

Another to fill yer boots IMHO

I've also backed the LDs to take Oxford West & Abingdon at 5/2

AlastairMeeks

Anorak said:

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

O/T I see that Shadsy has reinstated the Ladbrokes constituency markets

Good to see that we have some serious news today.

All the market are here.

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/UK-General-Election/Next-General-Election-Constituency-Betting/Politics-N-1z140vgZ1z140v7Z1z141ne/

Anything that stands out for you?

I shall need to pore over this at home this evening. This is a moment I've been waiting for.

It sometimes appears to me as though Shadsy uses PB to "beta test" his odds. Adjustments seem to follow very closely behind tips...

That's fair enough. If I were a bookie, I'd be drawing on the wisdom of crowds at least to some extent. Just so long as we're aware of that.

TheScreamingEagles

Is Con taking Sherwood at 5/2 value?

I missed out on the 5/1 with Paddy.

AlastairMeeks

TheScreamingEagles said:

Grrr Shadsy, UKIP 4/1 to take Rotherham is a bit mean.

There's a theme to notice there.

Anorak

Smarmeron said:

@Anorak
You don't even have to go to the expense of buying a "brewbin". A large sturdy cardboard box and a extra large white plastic binbag sealed loosely at the top with an elastic band does service as bin and airlock.

Doesn't sound, erm, hygenic. If I'm going to do it, don't mind spending a bit to do it right. Anyway, thanks for the advice. I'll need to clear the next phase with the wife, which may be a troublesome hurdle after my short-lived flirtation with breadmaking...

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Grrr Shadsy, UKIP 4/1 to take Rotherham is a bit mean.

There's a theme to notice there.

I've gone for the 25/1 on UKIP to win Penistone & Stocksbridge.

NickPalmer

Sean_F said:

ToryJim said:

To an extent, ultimately the enlightenment is incomplete whilst irrational belief systems hold such dominance.

I don't think there's a very clear divide between rational and irrational belief systems. Jean Bodin, who advocated death for witches, was the most rational political and economic thinker of his time. Marxists believe that their arguments are highly rational. So do radical feminists.

Not sure we can hope to eliminate irrational belief systems - some things which now seem to us commonplace - e.g. that slavery is wrong - will have seemed very eccentric in the past. What is perhaps more important is to fight belief systems which put all the money on their being right, with death the appropriate punishment for disagreement.

OblitusSumMe

Sean_F said:

I don't think there's a very clear divide between rational and irrational belief systems. Jean Bodin, who advocated death for witches, was the most rational political and economic thinker of his time. Marxists believe that their arguments are highly rational. So do radical feminists.

It depends what you mean by "rational".

In making a rational argument one needs to start with a number of assumptions, and then apply the laws of logic to these assumptions to reach your conclusions. Most people can accept people questioning their logic, and consequently logic tends to be relatively well formed, but most people find it harder to accept people questioning their assumptions.

Thus a Marxist may apply perfect logic to their argument, but what you really disagree with are their initial starting assumptions.

In Maths and Physics it is customary to state ones assumptions at the beginning, but people's inherent beliefs and assumptions are so central to their sense of self that they can't help but assume that all right-thinking people will share them. Thus they are less often made explicit.

This is why values and character matter so much more in elections than policies. Policies are all about applying logic to your assumptions, but values and character are about the essence of what those assumptions are. It's why so many people in Britain reflexively do not trust the Tories - they recognise that they have a very different view of the world at a fundamental level - and why otherwise sensible posters to this board can dismiss socialism - a broad and rich political tradition - as being about state control and spending other people's money to excess.

Stuart_Dickson

Theuniondivvie said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Jane Merrick ‏@janemerrick23 6 mins
Gordon Brown says "it would be good" if David Cameron did head to head debate with Alex Salmond #indyref #pressgallery

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 8 mins
Gordon Brown says you can't allow referendum to be Britain v Scotland. Must be about two visions of Scotland.

So at least one person doesn't think an Eck v Dave debate would be an Scotland v England thing.

I've always wondered which opponent Gordon Brown hates most: the SNP or the Tories? We are beginning to see what has long been suspected: it is the Tories.

In that particular respect he seems out of step with much of SLAB.

Indeed.

isam

Can anybody actually get on w Lads? If so I have a bet or two...

Life_ina_market_town

Sean_F said:

I don't think there's a very clear divide between rational and irrational belief systems. Jean Bodin, who advocated death for witches, was the most rational political and economic thinker of his time. Marxists believe that their arguments are highly rational. So do radical feminists.

Indeed, there was a time when Althusser and structural Marxism were in fashion, when it was endlessly repeated that "scientific Marxism" and "Marxist science" were both tautological phrases.

No_Offence_Alan

Why no price for the Greens in Sheffield Central? They came a very strong second in the local elections last month.

TheScreamingEagles

No_Offence_Alan said:

Why no price for the Greens in Sheffield Central? They came a very strong second in the local elections last month.

tweet shadsy @ladpolitics, and he'll price it up for you.

TheScreamingEagles

isam said:

Can anybody actually get on w Lads? If so I have a bet or two...

Is a bit slow, but fine.

isam

The schools in question all seem to being doing very well academically. Could this explain why Tower Hamlets schools are doing so well? Similar demographic

macisback

4-1 Conservative to take Derby North has to be great value.

dr_spyn

Rik Mayall. RIP.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aUxilWb2Og

Wasn't he less than enamoured of the EU as well?

Speedy

This should be used every time some one famous dies.
And no Sheffield Hallam LD hold is not free money due for Clegg doing pretty poor in constituency polls there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37dklS3I7jM&feature=kp

Scrapheap_as_was

Gutted to hear (P)rik, Flasheart, B'stard genius has died, part of my youth goes with him...

University Challenge for the Young Ones is still one of the funniest programmes in my whole life on the first viewing way back when.

Smarmeron

@Anorak
I meant a brand new bag (white signifies food grade)

isam

Our man Shadsy has shortened a lot of UKIP targets a lot despite it being all over for them

What gwan on?

TheScreamingEagles

Speedy said:

This should be used every time some one famous dies.
And no Sheffield Hallam LD hold is not free money due for Clegg doing pretty poor in constituency polls there.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=37dklS3I7jM&feature=kp

The most recent polling in the seat, if it used ICM's normal methodology, Clegg wins the seat comfortably.

Sunil_Prasannan

Alanbrooke said:

HurstLlama said:

Alanbrooke said:

HurstLlama said:

TheWatcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

taffys said:

My parents' church did not allow raffles until the late 1970s and they are still somewhat disapproved of by many in the congregation.

Coming from Wales I can remember 'dry areas' where pubs did not open on a Sunday.

We have "dry areas" still in Warwickhire.

The effing breweries have closed half the village pubs :-(

Would that be because the effing villagers weren't drinking in them?

Probably because the effin PubCos have put up prices beyond the effin villagers ability to pay; which in itself is due to effin governments sticking their effin oar into matters and markets they don't effin understand.

Did David Willetts ever work on pub legislation ? Looks just like his kind of balls-up :-)

He might have done as a very junior SpAD, I wouldn't know. However the man responsible for killing the pub trade in England is no less a person than David Ivor Young, Baron Young of Graffham.

You are of course correct Mr L. Isn't it ironic that conservative politicians just can't resist damaging their own constituencies ?

@Alanbrooke

Sent you a personal message.

Anorak

Smarmeron said:

@Anorak
I meant a brand new bag (white signifies food grade)

That's a relief
I think it was the use of the term "bin bag", which I'm sure you'll agree was rather ambiguous (especially to someone who had not, until 30 minutes ago, heard of a "brew bin")!

Richard_Nabavi

Labour Bradford West at 4/9 looks like a humdinger to me. Unfortunately I'm already quite exposed at 1/5 with PP (who currently go 1/8). Respect have disintegrated in Bradford:

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/the-northerner/2014/may/23/labour-gains-control-of-bradford-george-galloway-respect-fails