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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My first Ukip GE2015 bet: 8/1 with Hills that they’ll win 2+ MPs
Whenever punters make bets they are NOT making predictions. What they are doing is looking at the odds and deciding that the chance of the outcome happening is greater than the implied probability that the price suggests.
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Personally I don't see it as anything like value at 8/1, never mind 6/1.
@EdmundInTokyo
You're absolutely right. There was no solution for Cyprus that was pain free - except for either the Germans or the Russians handing over €16bn. And that simply wasn't on the table. Putin wants to discourage Russian money leaving the country; and Germany simply wasn't going to hand out a bank bailout equivalent to 80% of GDP, especially when the problems of the Cypriot banks were mostly self-inflicted (and the beneficiaries mostly foreign).
A week ago, I said there were three problems with the tax: (1) it fell on deposits below €100,000; (2) it did not distinguish between good and bad banks; and (3) it broke the order of debt precedence (by taking from depositors, but not - say - junior bondholders).
The current proposal solves all those issues, with the exception of the proposed 2% 'solidarity tax' on deposits above €100,000 in solvent banks. It is - essentially - the market solution. And is a salutatory reminder of the dangers in putting your money (really, lending to the bank) in an institution that is offering approximately 5x the going rate of interest for a Eurozone bank.
What I think is also interesting is the revelations that have emerged from the FT in the last week. The EU/IMF/Germans did not want a tax on the deposits below €100,000 - that was the Cypriot President (who was desperate to maintain the the off-shore finance industry). In fact the EU/IMF/Germans were pushing for what has now emerged: i.e. an orderly bankrupcy of a over-stretched financial institutions, with depositors supported according to current EU law.
One last point re the Nigel Farage story: it's worth remembering that the EU has no ability to take money out of the British subsidiary of Santander (the old Abbey National). And Santander on most metrics is a significantly better capitalised bank than - say - RBS, Lloyds TSB, or Barclays. Its shares trade at a premium to tangible book (i.e. the value of assets less liabilities), while British banks trade at a significant discount. Unlike British banks, Santander was profitable in each of the years of the financial crisis (which is a pretty impressive achievement). Of course, things could go horribly wrong, but in every case depositors in the UK would be protected by the UK's existing deposit guarantee scheme.
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Edit: the 'solidarity tax' is 4%, I think.
If the kippers do so well as to win 2 seats then the Tories are in for a nightmare night.
http://oddschecker.mobi/#_specials-politics-and-election-next-uk-general-election-total-seats-ukip-all-odds-none
The only way I can see UKIP winning seats plural at the General Election is if the Tory MP defects in this parliament and stands in that seat.
I can't find the market on how many defections if any there will be to UKIP in this parliament.
This the new normal for the peripheral nations of the Eurozone. It isn't exactly what was envisaged in the Treaty of Rome!
F1: interesting take by Gary Anderson on the race. I particularly liked his comparison of Horner and Brawn on the radios:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/21918537
What people seem to forget is that my judgement is superior.
This isn't over.
If Red Bull had any balls, they'd suspend Vettel for the next race.
Lewis Hamilton deserves a comedy award for pulling into the McLaren garage.
Although in his defence, a few years ago when I moved house, I drove back to my old house by accident.
The two houses were only 120 miles apart.
Also, I think two is much harder than one, because they could conceivably get one in a by-election, then dig in and hold it in the general election, but they'd have to be quite lucky to get two good by-election opportunities in two years and win them both.
Suspension's an interesting punishment I'd not considered. Deliberately breaking his gearbox did cross my mind.
If they don't punish him then that's incredibly unfair on Webber and makes Horner look spineless. The problem is that Helmut Marko's there, like a 5th century Gothic king. Horner might be emperor, but Marko's got the ear, I think, of Mateschitz.
If I were Webber I'd be memorising as much as I can about the 2014 car right now.
Eastleigh is 16/1 to go UKIP at the general election with Ladbrokes
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/letters/9951298/Only-Ukip-represents-our-views-now-say-disillusioned-ex-Tories.html
It's 6/1 now but great value even at that price. I'm on.
Two seats? Twenty-two more likely.
Vettel is turning into that well known German Shunt (sic) Schumacher.
If I were Webber, keep my counsel, and if Vettel is in with a shout of winning the title this season accidentally crash into him on a regular basis.
As you say there is a lot of mileage still to go in the Cyprus "settlement".
Putin is a man who, whilst he wants to control where Russian money goes, is a vengeful man and would not let a hit go by without retaliation - unless that hit meant better control over the money as it would weaken the investors of "funny-money" overseas.
Germany receives 40% of its gas from Russia and up to 6,000 German companies have investments in Russia.
Merkel (ex-east Germany) speaks Russian and Putin spent five years in Dresden. They have had interesting discussions before - perhaps even more interesting ones lie ahead.
Schumacher was the clear number one driver. Red Bull theoretically give their drivers equal treatment, and Vettel disobeyed a team order. Schumacher never disobeyed (or had to) because he was always number one (didn't he pull over once to let Irvine take a win?).
Prost, Senna and Schumacher all crashed into others to secure titles for themselves. If Webber does that he'll simply be axed by the team.
The best thing he could probably do now is memorise the 2014 car, or as much of it as he can, and move to a new team.
If UKIP eat the Tories: My thought, in the event that it turns out that Ed Is Crap:
Indeed.
I wonder what would have happened if Lewis had got his move to Red Bull.
Electoral history indicates the difficulty - In 83 the Alliance chalked up 25.4% of the vote for 23 seats - and IIRC only Paddy Ashdown in Yeovil wasn't a sitting MP or in a historically significant seat for the Liberals.
Two seats for Ukip ??? .... two seats too many me thinks with the outside prospect that Ukip might outscore the LibDems in the 12/16% range and yet fail to trouble the tellers whilst the yellow peril rack up 30+ seats !!
I wonder if Vettel has an effective veto over any new team mate, as per Alonso. Or perhaps Marko/Mateschitz won't contemplate a threat to their golden boy.
It certainly makes things interesting. As a comment somewhere said, the F1 coverage could've ended with the Eastenders soundtrack.
"They said to hold position, Seb! Get away from me, you slag!"
No surprise to anyone not fooled by the bumbling buffoon act.
Let's imagine that what Jack W is discussing happens and UKIP score comfortably in double-digits, but their parliamentary party ends up at Just Less Than One. Let's further assume that they take more votes from Con than from Lab, with the result that Ed Miliband gets a decent-sized majority on a vote share somewhere below 35%.
Would that be enough to get you guys to start thinking, "OK, maybe we need to change the voting system"? If not, is there any conceivable electoral outcome that would?
I think Vettel is like The Archbishop of Canterbury in the Anglican communion.
Primus Inter Pares.
They nearly did it to Harold Wilson.
There is no result that would make AV a good idea. Ever.
Unlikely in my view. Too many in Labour and the Conservatives are wedded to FPTP for GE's on the basis of buggins turn.
Even after the 1983 debacle Labour remained determined to keep FPTP as were the Conservatives through 97-05. Both probably reflect on the fact that the unlikely chance of a coalition - once in 70 years since WWII - is a price worth paying for unfettered power as a majority goverment on a regualr basis.
'One key element of the deposit tax, demanded by the IMF, is that it should not require approval by the Cyprus parliament.'
There you see the EU in all it's squalid glory-totally undemocratic.
How sensible people can support the EU is way beyond me.
Part of the Troika though
I don't think this one is. I think it will come in.
Nevertheless, I agree with your basic point. But this isn't really news. The Greeks and Italians had to change their leadership to agree with the EU. The euro was always an insane idea. Who looked at Germany, then at Greece, and thought "These two countries and 15 more should share a currency."?
Arf arf
Go on, then. What's your preferred solution to the insolvency of Cyprus' banking system? And how much should UK taxpayers contribute towards it?
Was the era I started following F1.
I also believe this economist most have been less than 10 years from retirement.
"Unlike your racing tips, my dear old TOTY runner-up
Arf arf"
***********************************************************
Go eat your sporran, you Old Scrote.
Two winners and an 11/1 forecast on Saturday.
I rest my case.
"Webber almost first defers to Vettel always first"
Mr. Eek, it's true Germany's benefited from an artificially undervalued currency, though they presently seem less happy with the situation.
I've just read that Webber may be considering his career in F1 now. If I were him, I'd stay in the sport (he's fast enough) but consider jumping ship.
The problem is that his probable first choice (Ferrari) now has a number two driver who's actually doing very well.
PtP - PB's favourite "Cross-Dressing Stopped Clock Tipster"
Nice pink feather boa though !!
Wow, that has almost never happened every week. It truly is a sign.
Try to curb your envy, Young Jack. It plays havoc with your pacemaker.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/thinktank-slams-lack-of-competition-on-railways-8547714.html
I have my moments when Mrs Jack W is away .... all those shoes and evening dresses and only one long gallery in chez Jack to parade in .... but that elastic in the bloomers is a bugger - well you know of course !!
I'm sorry: let's play quoting FT articles:
"Just before the parliamentary vote on Tuesday, after eurozone officials urged the Cypriot government to modify the bank levy so it would fall exclusively on deposits above €100,000, EU officials had convinced themselves that Mr Anastasiades would not put his country at risk to protect wealthy holders of big bank accounts."
"Backed by Berlin, it proposed what came to be known as the “bail-in” or “Icelandic Solution” – to merge Laiki and Bank of Cyprus; create a new bank with all insured deposits under €100,000 and capitalised with Cypriot government and bailout funding; and put everything else in a “bad bank”. That meant large depositors, including many Russians, would have their holdings put into the bad bank and cut by anywhere from 20 to 40 per cent. But it also meant cutting the bailout’s €17bn price tag in half."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a8c52cc6-92e6-11e2-b3be-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2OXeJVRYh
Also you said "'One key element of the deposit tax, demanded by the IMF, is that it should not require approval by the Cyprus parliament.'
There you see the EU in all it's squalid glory-totally undemocratic."
Clearly the word you missied in the quote from Nigel4England was IMF. There is nothing the EU is doing that the IMF has not done many, many times.
Cons 26; UKIP 13; LAB 13; LD 11; GN 2; BNP 2; SNP 2; PC 1; SF 1; DUP 1. In 2014 there are 73 seats.
It is likely that BNP could lose their 2, so how many will UKIP get? They could use this election as a springboard for 2015 if they organise well.
Cameron will be devastated to be criticised by Montgomerie and supported by Rentoul.
Maybe he will resign today
On-topic, all the comments made about UKIP struggling under FPTP with an evenly-distributed vote share were made about the Alliance in 1983. "We have won no seats but a great victory" might be the words of Nigel Farage on May 8th 2015.
IF UKIP can win a seat in a by-election 6-12 months before the GE, that might be their way in short, as others say, of defections. and for all the manoeuvring and wheeling and dealing, there hasn't been one and I suspect there won't be one either.
I'd be happier to take 8/1 about one seat but to win two is a big ask currently. I don't see either Thurrock seat as a possible win for UKIP - on current evidence, Labour will win them both and while UKIP will certainly run a strong third in both, I just don't see anything better at this time.
Firstly, isn't it illegal to discriminate against immigrants from other EU countries? They have to granted benefits etc. under the same terms as natives of the host country, do they not?
Secondly, weren't similar sorts measures introduced years ago in relation to cutting off benefits from asylum seekers and weren't they ruled illegal by the courts?
Now, as I freely admit, my memory isn't what it once was, but, assuming the Speccie is accurate about the proposed measures, this just looks like empty posturing from Cameron. A spin operation designed to placate his back-benchers and to fool the public that he is doing something.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/03/what-tory-backbenchers-want-on-immigration-and-what-the-pm-can-give-them/
Part of Cyprus' problems are the EU encouraged them to bailout Greece, which left them dreadfully exposed. Now anyone with over 100,000 Euros is paying for that bail out.
Think I'll ask to be paid in cash each month, rather than lend it to the banks.
Another State holing the "balanced budget" fetishists below the waterline.
What has happened in Cyprus would have happened even if Cyprus had not been a member of the Eurozone. Foreign depositors in Cypriot banks did have deposits in Cyprus Pounds, they had them in Euros and Dollars. If Cyprus had not been a member of the Eurozone, those people would still not have gotten their money back because the Cypriot government would not have been able to print Euros or Dollars.
Of course, they could have printed Cyprus Pounds and converted them to Euros and Dollars - but with a banking system 8x the size of Cypriot GDP that would have cut depositors by the same margin, just a little more subtly.
I'm disappointed you didn't tell me about this
http://www.themikedenverband.com/index.php/Newsflash/trips.html
The failure of the Liberal Democrats and the challenge before UKIP is to establish themselves as a credible alternative Governing party within FPTP which favours and supports a duopoly in a way that STV doesn't. FPTP also punishes an evenly-distributed vote and favours a concentrated core of support - it helps all three main existing parties on that basis.
Labour still won 255 seats in 2010 and 209 in 1983 on appalling national poll numbers. The Conservatives won 165 in 1997 and 166 in 2001 - both parties had sufficient bedrock to retain and maintain a significant presence in Parliament. It would need either to schism substantially (and the Tories have before as have the Liberals) to change that dynamic. UKIP may yet undermine the Conservative bedrock but I've yet to see conclusive evidence and May's County Council elections may provide some.
SJ"
That's a decent concession.
I'd put £100 on, if only SJ would let me.
Maybe South Basildon & East Thurrock too?
"[politicalbetting] You earned the 10 Comments badge. You earned the 10 Comments badge.
No longer a one-hit wonder! It looks like you’re going places. +5 points"
Is it like the I-Spy books, do I get a feather when I get to 150points?
Here are the criteria Ireland turned to after their blatant residency criteria were ruled out by (I think) the ECJ:
"Once your right to reside has been established the following 5 factors (which have been set down in Irish and European law) are examined to find out if you are habitually resident in Ireland:
Length and continuity of residence in Ireland
Length and purpose of any absence from Ireland
Nature and pattern of employment
Your main centre of interest
Your future intentions to live in Ireland as it appears from the evidence"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ-SaqUYJZw
:despairs-sometimes:
*Innocent Face*
Are you sure?
They seem to claim balanced budgets can part the seas and turn water into wine.
Glad to know the spirit of youth still burns in your loins, Young Jack.
To be serious and on topic for a moment, Mike's bet looks a great one because there are three ways it can come in:
1) By-elections (any won now would almost certainly be held at a GE)
2) Defections
3) A UKIP surge (ooo-er Missus)
Or all three, of course.
I'd put the chances at no worse than 2/1.
Btw, we really did have a super day on Saturday's AW card - three out of five, including a forecast. I guess you missed it. Matron confiscated your laptop again?
Yeah, I'm pretty sure it's only you who's confused about the difference between a fiscal crisis and a banking crisis.
PJ & Duncan's Let's get ready to Rhumble surged up the iTunes chart yesterday.
Ant & Dec to be number one in the official top 40 chart on Sunday 31st March is now 8/11 with Ladbrokes
Thanks for that, Mr. Neil. I am not sure that I understand how said criteria would be applied to a new entrant who has some creative imagination (or a good advisor) but if Ireland can make it work maybe the UK can too. We shall see.
Isn't the bet Ukip seats won at the 2015 GE ??
Er...yes.
Am I missing something, or are we both going senile?
"Badges! We don't need no stinking badges!"