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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My first Ukip GE2015 bet: 8/1 with Hills that they’ll win

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My first Ukip GE2015 bet: 8/1 with Hills that they’ll win 2+ MPs

Whenever punters make bets they are NOT making predictions. What they are doing is looking at the odds and deciding that the chance of the outcome happening is greater than the implied probability that the price suggests.

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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,215
    I've followed you in with £20 Mike, great odds.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's now into 6/1.

    Personally I don't see it as anything like value at 8/1, never mind 6/1.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,369
    edited March 2013
    FPT...

    @EdmundInTokyo

    You're absolutely right. There was no solution for Cyprus that was pain free - except for either the Germans or the Russians handing over €16bn. And that simply wasn't on the table. Putin wants to discourage Russian money leaving the country; and Germany simply wasn't going to hand out a bank bailout equivalent to 80% of GDP, especially when the problems of the Cypriot banks were mostly self-inflicted (and the beneficiaries mostly foreign).

    A week ago, I said there were three problems with the tax: (1) it fell on deposits below €100,000; (2) it did not distinguish between good and bad banks; and (3) it broke the order of debt precedence (by taking from depositors, but not - say - junior bondholders).

    The current proposal solves all those issues, with the exception of the proposed 2% 'solidarity tax' on deposits above €100,000 in solvent banks. It is - essentially - the market solution. And is a salutatory reminder of the dangers in putting your money (really, lending to the bank) in an institution that is offering approximately 5x the going rate of interest for a Eurozone bank.

    What I think is also interesting is the revelations that have emerged from the FT in the last week. The EU/IMF/Germans did not want a tax on the deposits below €100,000 - that was the Cypriot President (who was desperate to maintain the the off-shore finance industry). In fact the EU/IMF/Germans were pushing for what has now emerged: i.e. an orderly bankrupcy of a over-stretched financial institutions, with depositors supported according to current EU law.

    One last point re the Nigel Farage story: it's worth remembering that the EU has no ability to take money out of the British subsidiary of Santander (the old Abbey National). And Santander on most metrics is a significantly better capitalised bank than - say - RBS, Lloyds TSB, or Barclays. Its shares trade at a premium to tangible book (i.e. the value of assets less liabilities), while British banks trade at a significant discount. Unlike British banks, Santander was profitable in each of the years of the financial crisis (which is a pretty impressive achievement). Of course, things could go horribly wrong, but in every case depositors in the UK would be protected by the UK's existing deposit guarantee scheme.

    --

    Edit: the 'solidarity tax' is 4%, I think.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,369
    antifrank said:

    It's now into 6/1.

    Personally I don't see it as anything like value at 8/1, never mind 6/1.

    It's quite binary, isn't it. This is really a bet at 8-1 that UKIP makes a breakthrough. (Of course, I suspect the odds on 10 seats and 2 seats should really be quite similar - they both posit c. 15% at the next election.)
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 1,960
    I'm with @antifrank on this. Can't see them having the strength in depth in particular locations to win seats. I'd have put twenties as a fair price on this outcome.

    If the kippers do so well as to win 2 seats then the Tories are in for a nightmare night.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,691
    edited March 2013
    They're 2/5 not to win a seat.

    http://oddschecker.mobi/#_specials-politics-and-election-next-uk-general-election-total-seats-ukip-all-odds-none

    The only way I can see UKIP winning seats plural at the General Election is if the Tory MP defects in this parliament and stands in that seat.

    I can't find the market on how many defections if any there will be to UKIP in this parliament.
  • So Cyprus is now 'saved'. Except its business model is ruined and the bank depositors over 100k get a huge haircut. They will walk as soon as they can. And Joe Ordinary will wonder if having cash in a Cypriot bank is safe. So we will see a bank run as soon as the banks open. So the authorities will impose capital controls.

    This the new normal for the peripheral nations of the Eurozone. It isn't exactly what was envisaged in the Treaty of Rome!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: interesting take by Gary Anderson on the race. I particularly liked his comparison of Horner and Brawn on the radios:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/21918537
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,215
    @Monksfield I'll have a tenner with you at twenties if you are offering ;)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,216
    Pulpstar said:

    I've followed you in with £20 Mike, great odds.

    Thank you.

    What people seem to forget is that my judgement is superior.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,165
    I think we'd need to see where UKIP could do well in County Council seats before anticipating any Parliamentary gains. I live in a target CC seat, apparently, and I've seen no sign of activity.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,215

    ... then the Tories are in for a nightmare night.

    I think they are... but they will win Solihull ;)
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT...

    @EdmundInTokyo

    You're absolutely right. There was no solution for Cyprus that was pain free - except for either the Germans or the Russians handing over €16bn. And that simply wasn't on the table. Putin wants to discourage Russian money leaving the country; and Germany simply wasn't going to hand out a bank bailout equivalent to 80% of GDP, especially when the problems of the Cypriot banks were mostly self-inflicted (and the beneficiaries mostly foreign).

    A week ago, I said there were three problems with the tax: (1) it fell on deposits below €100,000; (2) it did not distinguish between good and bad banks; and (3) it broke the order of debt precedence (by taking from depositors, but not - say - junior bondholders).

    The current proposal solves all those issues, with the exception of the proposed 2% 'solidarity tax' on deposits above €100,000 in solvent banks. It is - essentially - the market solution. And is a salutatory reminder of the dangers in putting your money (really, lending to the bank) in an institution that is offering approximately 5x the going rate of interest for a Eurozone bank.

    What I think is also interesting is the revelations that have emerged from the FT in the last week. The EU/IMF/Germans did not want a tax on the deposits below €100,000 - that was the Cypriot President (who was desperate to maintain the the off-shore finance industry). In fact the EU/IMF/Germans were pushing for what has now emerged: i.e. an orderly bankrupcy of a over-stretched financial institutions, with depositors supported according to current EU law.

    One last point re the Nigel Farage story: it's worth remembering that the EU has no ability to take money out of the British subsidiary of Santander (the old Abbey National). And Santander on most metrics is a significantly better capitalised bank than - say - RBS, Lloyds TSB, or Barclays. Its shares trade at a premium to tangible book (i.e. the value of assets less liabilities), while British banks trade at a significant discount. Unlike British banks, Santander was profitable in each of the years of the financial crisis (which is a pretty impressive achievement). Of course, things could go horribly wrong, but in every case depositors in the UK would be protected by the UK's existing deposit guarantee scheme.

    --

    Edit: the 'solidarity tax' is 4%, I think.

    This still has to be approved in Germany, and I think the Russians will turn the screw on the Germans before that happens.First thing they will do is freeze the assets of big German companies operating in Russia.

    This isn't over.
  • Mr Dancer.

    If Red Bull had any balls, they'd suspend Vettel for the next race.

    Lewis Hamilton deserves a comedy award for pulling into the McLaren garage.

    Although in his defence, a few years ago when I moved house, I drove back to my old house by accident.

    The two houses were only 120 miles apart.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,020
    On topic, it feels more like 15/1 to me. I'd be interested to hear which specific seats people who think it's reasonably likely reckon they might be in with a chance in.

    Also, I think two is much harder than one, because they could conceivably get one in a by-election, then dig in and hold it in the general election, but they'd have to be quite lucky to get two good by-election opportunities in two years and win them both.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,215
    1 seat which could well go: Eastleigh.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    Mr. Eagles, you are Lewis Hamilton and I claim £500,000.

    Suspension's an interesting punishment I'd not considered. Deliberately breaking his gearbox did cross my mind.

    If they don't punish him then that's incredibly unfair on Webber and makes Horner look spineless. The problem is that Helmut Marko's there, like a 5th century Gothic king. Horner might be emperor, but Marko's got the ear, I think, of Mateschitz.

    If I were Webber I'd be memorising as much as I can about the 2014 car right now.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Pulpstar said:

    I've followed you in with £20 Mike, great odds.

    Thank you.

    What people seem to forget is that my judgement is superior.

    How's Jon Huntsman doing these days? ;)
  • Pulpstar.

    Eastleigh is 16/1 to go UKIP at the general election with Ladbrokes
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    I think Mike is 100% correct, a huge turnaround for him as a few weeks ago he was saying how useless Farage is! Anyway I'm with Mike all the way, in fact there could be two UKIP MP's before 2015. Telegraph on UKIP:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/letters/9951298/Only-Ukip-represents-our-views-now-say-disillusioned-ex-Tories.html
  • Thanks Mike

    It's 6/1 now but great value even at that price. I'm on.

    Two seats? Twenty-two more likely.
  • Mr Dancer.

    Vettel is turning into that well known German Shunt (sic) Schumacher.

    If I were Webber, keep my counsel, and if Vettel is in with a shout of winning the title this season accidentally crash into him on a regular basis.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,020
    Pulpstar said:

    1 seat which could well go: Eastleigh.

    Looks like their best hope, doesn't it? But by-elections should be vastly better for insurgent parties like UKIP than general elections. Even allowing for a lot of work on the ground in the meantime, if they couldn't take it in a mid-term by-election caused by an MP going to prison while the press threw everything they had at the LibDems and whatever that scandal was, they're going to have a hell of a job winning it in a general election.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    nigel4england

    As you say there is a lot of mileage still to go in the Cyprus "settlement".

    Putin is a man who, whilst he wants to control where Russian money goes, is a vengeful man and would not let a hit go by without retaliation - unless that hit meant better control over the money as it would weaken the investors of "funny-money" overseas.

    Germany receives 40% of its gas from Russia and up to 6,000 German companies have investments in Russia.

    Merkel (ex-east Germany) speaks Russian and Putin spent five years in Dresden. They have had interesting discussions before - perhaps even more interesting ones lie ahead.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    Mr. Eagles, the comparison is unfair.

    Schumacher was the clear number one driver. Red Bull theoretically give their drivers equal treatment, and Vettel disobeyed a team order. Schumacher never disobeyed (or had to) because he was always number one (didn't he pull over once to let Irvine take a win?).

    Prost, Senna and Schumacher all crashed into others to secure titles for themselves. If Webber does that he'll simply be axed by the team.

    The best thing he could probably do now is memorise the 2014 car, or as much of it as he can, and move to a new team.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,020
    edited March 2013
    Reposting a couple of suggestions from last time we talked about the, "OK then, which seats?" question.

    If UKIP eat the Tories:
    Nick Palmer:

    How about Worthing East?
    * Tories under 50%
    * Lab and LibDems not close challengers
    * UKIP save deposit last time
    * Age profile extremely loaded to elderly voters

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worthing_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    My thought, in the event that it turns out that Ed Is Crap:
    PLYMOUTH SUTTON & DEVONPORT
    2010 Result:
    Conservative: 15050 (34.3%)
    Labour: 13901 (31.7%)
    Lib Dem: 10829 (24.7%)
    UKIP: 2854 (6.5%)

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/plymouthsuttonanddevonport/
  • Mr Dancer

    Indeed.

    I wonder what would have happened if Lewis had got his move to Red Bull.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited March 2013
    The problem for Ukip, as I've indicated previously, is FPTP and the probability that Farage's party will fall back as the 2015 GE looms.

    Electoral history indicates the difficulty - In 83 the Alliance chalked up 25.4% of the vote for 23 seats - and IIRC only Paddy Ashdown in Yeovil wasn't a sitting MP or in a historically significant seat for the Liberals.

    Two seats for Ukip ??? .... two seats too many me thinks with the outside prospect that Ukip might outscore the LibDems in the 12/16% range and yet fail to trouble the tellers whilst the yellow peril rack up 30+ seats !!

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    Mr. Eagles, I've always had tremendous respect for Vettel's driving ability. Before 2012 I might well have said he was the fastest in the field. However, now I'd far sooner have Alonso or Hamilton as a number one driver in a team.

    I wonder if Vettel has an effective veto over any new team mate, as per Alonso. Or perhaps Marko/Mateschitz won't contemplate a threat to their golden boy.

    It certainly makes things interesting. As a comment somewhere said, the F1 coverage could've ended with the Eastenders soundtrack.

    "They said to hold position, Seb! Get away from me, you slag!"
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Ken Livingstone a better man than Boris Johnson?

    No surprise to anyone not fooled by the bumbling buffoon act.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,020
    A question for our Tory-sympathetic friends, whether UKIP-curious or not:

    Let's imagine that what Jack W is discussing happens and UKIP score comfortably in double-digits, but their parliamentary party ends up at Just Less Than One. Let's further assume that they take more votes from Con than from Lab, with the result that Ed Miliband gets a decent-sized majority on a vote share somewhere below 35%.

    Would that be enough to get you guys to start thinking, "OK, maybe we need to change the voting system"? If not, is there any conceivable electoral outcome that would?
  • Mr Dancer

    I think Vettel is like The Archbishop of Canterbury in the Anglican communion.

    Primus Inter Pares.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    A question for our Tory-sympathetic friends, whether UKIP-curious or not:

    Let's imagine that what Jack W is discussing happens and UKIP score comfortably in double-digits, but their parliamentary party ends up at Just Less Than One. Let's further assume that they take more votes from Con than from Lab, with the result that Ed Miliband gets a decent-sized majority on a vote share somewhere below 35%.

    Would that be enough to get you guys to start thinking, "OK, maybe we need to change the voting system"? If not, is there any conceivable electoral outcome that would?

    I already think we do need to change the voting system, and advocated for such during the AV referendum. AV is my preferred system, but I now accept it's dead as a dodo. However, due to a combination of persuasive arguments during that debate, the coalition not being the gridlock I thought it would be, and the emergence of a fourth party to prevent the Lib Dems being permanently in power, I also not prefer STV over FPTP.

  • Edmund in that scenario I'd expect protests in the street and possibly a coup.

    They nearly did it to Harold Wilson.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BenM said:

    Ken Livingstone a better man than Boris Johnson?

    No surprise to anyone not fooled by the bumbling buffoon act.

    How many times has Boris Johnson taken cut-price fuel from the people of a developing country, in order to give international prestige to said country's authoritarian leader?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Would that be enough to get you guys to start thinking, "OK, maybe we need to change the voting system"? If not, is there any conceivable electoral outcome that would?

    Changing the system because you don't like the result is the action of unprincipled scoundrels, or Lib Dems.

    There is no result that would make AV a good idea. Ever.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    The very marginal LD seats left in Cornwall could be vulnerable to UKIP - Europhiles are not very popular there.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    EiT and Socrates.

    Unlikely in my view. Too many in Labour and the Conservatives are wedded to FPTP for GE's on the basis of buggins turn.

    Even after the 1983 debacle Labour remained determined to keep FPTP as were the Conservatives through 97-05. Both probably reflect on the fact that the unlikely chance of a coalition - once in 70 years since WWII - is a price worth paying for unfettered power as a majority goverment on a regualr basis.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    JackW said:

    EiT and Socrates.

    Unlikely in my view. Too many in Labour and the Conservatives are wedded to FPTP for GE's on the basis of buggins turn.

    Even after the 1983 debacle Labour remained determined to keep FPTP as were the Conservatives through 97-05. Both probably reflect on the fact that the unlikely chance of a coalition - once in 70 years since WWII - is a price worth paying for unfettered power as a majority goverment on a regualr basis.

    I can't imagine the Lib Dems doing another coalition deal without a referendum on PR. And they'd win it.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Not a bad bet, but i'd say more like 10% chance. Always an outside chance of Ukip making a breakthrough, but only if the economy goes completely belly up (yes things could get worse).
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Quote from the BBC website in their Cyprus article:

    'One key element of the deposit tax, demanded by the IMF, is that it should not require approval by the Cyprus parliament.'

    There you see the EU in all it's squalid glory-totally undemocratic.

    How sensible people can support the EU is way beyond me.
  • Quote from the BBC website in their Cyprus article:

    'One key element of the deposit tax, demanded by the IMF, is that it should not require approval by the Cyprus parliament.'

    There you see the EU in all it's squalid glory-totally undemocratic.

    How sensible people can support the EU is way beyond me.

    I hate to be pedantic, but the IMF is not the EU.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    Mr. England, you're very unfair. The EU's very democratic. It likes a referendum so much it often gives countries the opportunity to vote on the same question twice, just to make sure they get it right.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,020


    'One key element of the deposit tax, demanded by the IMF, is that it should not require approval by the Cyprus parliament.'

    There you see the EU IMF in all it's squalid glory-totally undemocratic.

    How sensible people can support the EU IMF is way beyond me.

    Fixed it for you.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Btw with this new vanilla forum, I take it the best way to refresh is to right click -> reload frame?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    TSE

    Part of the Troika though
  • Socrates said:


    How's Jon Huntsman doing these days? ;)

    Good fun, Socco, but I'm sure your tongue is firmly in your cheek. Huntsman was a great trading bet.

    I don't think this one is. I think it will come in.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    Mr. T, isn't the point of constrictors that they don't use venom?

    Nevertheless, I agree with your basic point. But this isn't really news. The Greeks and Italians had to change their leadership to agree with the EU. The euro was always an insane idea. Who looked at Germany, then at Greece, and thought "These two countries and 15 more should share a currency."?
  • eekeek Posts: 19,251

    didn't he pull over once to let Irvine take a win?

    Malaysia 1999. But that was after Schumacher had lost the championship due to a broken leg at Silverstone so Team orders were in reverse.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Socrates said:


    How's Jon Huntsman doing these days? ;)

    Good fun, Socco, but I'm sure your tongue is firmly in your cheek. Huntsman was a great trading bet.

    I don't think this one is. I think it will come in.

    Unlike your racing tips, my dear old TOTY runner-up

    Arf arf

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    F1: Ladbrokes have a mischievous bet up for China: Webber 1st, Vettel 2nd (17).
  • TSE

    Part of the Troika though

    Having seen the way the votes are made up at the IMF, I'm fairly certain we can rule out the IMF doing the EU's bidding.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    Ah, cheers, Mr. Eek. I don't think I was particularly following F1 at that time, so wasn't sure if I was right about that.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @SeanT

    Go on, then. What's your preferred solution to the insolvency of Cyprus' banking system? And how much should UK taxpayers contribute towards it?
  • Ah, cheers, Mr. Eek. I don't think I was particularly following F1 at that time, so wasn't sure if I was right about that.

    The 1990s was an enjoyable time for fans of F1.

    Was the era I started following F1.

  • eekeek Posts: 19,251

    Who looked at Germany, then at Greece, and thought "These two countries and 15 more should share a currency."?

    The German economist who saw the advantage of tying the rampaging German economy with others doing less well.

    I also believe this economist most have been less than 10 years from retirement.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,470
    edited March 2013
    @JackW

    "Unlike your racing tips, my dear old TOTY runner-up

    Arf arf"

    ***********************************************************


    Go eat your sporran, you Old Scrote.

    Two winners and an 11/1 forecast on Saturday.

    I rest my case.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    F1: Ladbrokes have a mischievous bet up for China: Webber 1st, Vettel 2nd (17).

    New Red Bull team orders :

    "Webber almost first defers to Vettel always first"

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    Mr. Eagles, my earliest F1 memories are of Schumacher in a Benetton and his duels with Hill. Although a Schumacher fan I did get bored with his ultra-dominance.

    Mr. Eek, it's true Germany's benefited from an artificially undervalued currency, though they presently seem less happy with the situation.

    I've just read that Webber may be considering his career in F1 now. If I were him, I'd stay in the sport (he's fast enough) but consider jumping ship.

    The problem is that his probable first choice (Ferrari) now has a number two driver who's actually doing very well.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Peter_the_Punter

    PtP - PB's favourite "Cross-Dressing Stopped Clock Tipster"

    Nice pink feather boa though !!
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Thurrock seems a decent target for UKIP at the next election. A similar profile to the Gooshays ward they won last week
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    Continuity IDS critical of Cameron.

    Wow, that has almost never happened every week. It truly is a sign.
  • JackW said:

    @Peter_the_Punter

    PtP - PB's favourite "Cross-Dressing Stopped Clock Tipster"

    Nice pink feather boa though !!


    Try to curb your envy, Young Jack. It plays havoc with your pacemaker.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited March 2013

    Quote from the BBC website in their Cyprus article:

    'One key element of the deposit tax, demanded by the IMF, is that it should not require approval by the Cyprus parliament.'

    There you see the EU in all it's squalid glory-totally undemocratic.

    How sensible people can support the EU is way beyond me.

    To be fair not only is the EU not the IMF but those over 100k were never insured in the first place. Their money is uninsured in a bust bank ... If it wasn't for both the IMF and the EU then they'd easily lose everything. Taking insured money would be outrageous but uninsured money is completely different.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Peter_the_Punter

    I have my moments when Mrs Jack W is away .... all those shoes and evening dresses and only one long gallery in chez Jack to parade in .... but that elastic in the bloomers is a bugger - well you know of course !!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,369
    @SeanT

    I'm sorry: let's play quoting FT articles:

    "Just before the parliamentary vote on Tuesday, after eurozone officials urged the Cypriot government to modify the bank levy so it would fall exclusively on deposits above €100,000, EU officials had convinced themselves that Mr Anastasiades would not put his country at risk to protect wealthy holders of big bank accounts."

    "Backed by Berlin, it proposed what came to be known as the “bail-in” or “Icelandic Solution” – to merge Laiki and Bank of Cyprus; create a new bank with all insured deposits under €100,000 and capitalised with Cypriot government and bailout funding; and put everything else in a “bad bank”. That meant large depositors, including many Russians, would have their holdings put into the bad bank and cut by anywhere from 20 to 40 per cent. But it also meant cutting the bailout’s €17bn price tag in half."


    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a8c52cc6-92e6-11e2-b3be-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2OXeJVRYh


    Also you said "'One key element of the deposit tax, demanded by the IMF, is that it should not require approval by the Cyprus parliament.'

    There you see the EU in all it's squalid glory-totally undemocratic."

    Clearly the word you missied in the quote from Nigel4England was IMF. There is nothing the EU is doing that the IMF has not done many, many times.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    The result of the 2009 EU (UK) election was (72 seats):
    Cons 26; UKIP 13; LAB 13; LD 11; GN 2; BNP 2; SNP 2; PC 1; SF 1; DUP 1. In 2014 there are 73 seats.

    It is likely that BNP could lose their 2, so how many will UKIP get? They could use this election as a springboard for 2015 if they organise well.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    @JohnRentoul: Now @TimMontgomerie fully signed up for impossiblism - "There has been no reimagining of the state" - PM in trouble http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2013/03/camerons-lost-decade.html

    Cameron will be devastated to be criticised by Montgomerie and supported by Rentoul.

    Maybe he will resign today
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,260
    Morning all :)

    On-topic, all the comments made about UKIP struggling under FPTP with an evenly-distributed vote share were made about the Alliance in 1983. "We have won no seats but a great victory" might be the words of Nigel Farage on May 8th 2015.

    IF UKIP can win a seat in a by-election 6-12 months before the GE, that might be their way in short, as others say, of defections. and for all the manoeuvring and wheeling and dealing, there hasn't been one and I suspect there won't be one either.

    I'd be happier to take 8/1 about one seat but to win two is a big ask currently. I don't see either Thurrock seat as a possible win for UKIP - on current evidence, Labour will win them both and while UKIP will certainly run a strong third in both, I just don't see anything better at this time.
  • Financier said:



    It is likely that BNP could lose their 2, so how many will UKIP get? They could use this election as a springboard for 2015 if they organise well.

    Well the BNP have already lost one seat, Andrew Brons left/defected because Nick Griffin was far too cuddly.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,020
    sam said:

    Thurrock seems a decent target for UKIP at the next election. A similar profile to the Gooshays ward they won last week

    Interesting thought. This is another "Ed is crap" one - assuming UKIP pull more from Con than Lab, even if it's just a little bit, anything less than a very impressive performance by UKIP combined with anything more than a very crap performance by Labour just gives the seat to Lab.
    General Election 2010: Thurrock [3]
    Party Candidate Votes % ±%
    Conservative Jackie Doyle-Price 16,869 36.8 +3.6
    Labour Carl Morris 16,777 36.6 −9.6
    Liberal Democrat Carys Davis 4,901 10.7 −0.4
    BNP Emma Colgate 3,618 7.9 +2.1
    UKIP Clive Broad 3,390 7.4 +4.0
    Christian Peoples Arinola Araba 267 0.6 N/A
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited March 2013
    Just read a trailer for the "tough new measures" to stop immigrants obtaining benefits and access to social housing that Cameron will apparently announce later today and two thoughts occur.

    Firstly, isn't it illegal to discriminate against immigrants from other EU countries? They have to granted benefits etc. under the same terms as natives of the host country, do they not?

    Secondly, weren't similar sorts measures introduced years ago in relation to cutting off benefits from asylum seekers and weren't they ruled illegal by the courts?

    Now, as I freely admit, my memory isn't what it once was, but, assuming the Speccie is accurate about the proposed measures, this just looks like empty posturing from Cameron. A spin operation designed to placate his back-benchers and to fool the public that he is doing something.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/03/what-tory-backbenchers-want-on-immigration-and-what-the-pm-can-give-them/
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    To be fair not only is the EU not the IMF but those over 100k were never insured in the first place. Their money is uninsured in a bust bank ... If it wasn't for both the IMF and the EU then they'd easily lose everything. Taking insured money would be outrageous but uninsured money is completely different

    Part of Cyprus' problems are the EU encouraged them to bailout Greece, which left them dreadfully exposed. Now anyone with over 100,000 Euros is paying for that bail out.

    Think I'll ask to be paid in cash each month, rather than lend it to the banks.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Cyprus - another State running a budget surplus and low stock of debt up to the crash.

    Another State holing the "balanced budget" fetishists below the waterline.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    Firstly, isn't it illegal to discriminate against immigrants from other EU countries? They have to granted benefits etc. under the same terms as natives of the host country, do they not?

    Ireland had a judgement against it on this issue some years ago. In the end they came up with a set of 5 criteria which could be thought of as achieving similar ends. I'm sure HMG's lawyers are all over the case.

  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 610
    When I signed on after working as self employed, I was told that I was not eligible for unemployment benefit because I hadn't paid employed stamp for the past two years. Presumably people coming to this country haven't paid so don't get any unemployment benefit. After six months employment benefit stops anyway and your spouse is expected to keep you.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,369
    eek said:


    Who looked at Germany, then at Greece, and thought "These two countries and 15 more should share a currency."?

    The German economist who saw the advantage of tying the rampaging German economy with others doing less well.

    I also believe this economist most have been less than 10 years from retirement.
    German unemployment is at a 20 year low (https://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/explore?ds=z8o7pt6rd5uqa6_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=country:de&fdim_y=seasonality:sa&dl=en&hl=en&q=german unemployment rate) so, it's worked out rather well for Germany.

    What has happened in Cyprus would have happened even if Cyprus had not been a member of the Eurozone. Foreign depositors in Cypriot banks did have deposits in Cyprus Pounds, they had them in Euros and Dollars. If Cyprus had not been a member of the Eurozone, those people would still not have gotten their money back because the Cypriot government would not have been able to print Euros or Dollars.

    Of course, they could have printed Cyprus Pounds and converted them to Euros and Dollars - but with a banking system 8x the size of Cypriot GDP that would have cut depositors by the same margin, just a little more subtly.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    BenM said:


    Another State holing the "balanced budget" fetishists below the waterline.

    Tbf I dont think anyone ever argued that a balanced budget would protect you against a bloated, insolvent bank sector.
  • @neil

    I'm disappointed you didn't tell me about this

    http://www.themikedenverband.com/index.php/Newsflash/trips.html
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,260
    As for parties changing their line on electoral systems, I think that could happen very quickly under the pressure of circumstances. That said, apart from 1981/82 (and I've commented on here before how the Falklands War saved the Labour Party) and 2003 (had the Tories not moved to oust IDS and choose Howard who was never going to win but was always going to shore up the core vote), both parties have known in Opposition that they were the only credible alternative Government and it was simply a matter of time.

    The failure of the Liberal Democrats and the challenge before UKIP is to establish themselves as a credible alternative Governing party within FPTP which favours and supports a duopoly in a way that STV doesn't. FPTP also punishes an evenly-distributed vote and favours a concentrated core of support - it helps all three main existing parties on that basis.

    Labour still won 255 seats in 2010 and 209 in 1983 on appalling national poll numbers. The Conservatives won 165 in 1997 and 166 in 2001 - both parties had sufficient bedrock to retain and maintain a significant presence in Parliament. It would need either to schism substantially (and the Tories have before as have the Liberals) to change that dynamic. UKIP may yet undermine the Conservative bedrock but I've yet to see conclusive evidence and May's County Council elections may provide some.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited March 2013
    "Cameron is 10/1 to be first leader out, if no leader goes before the election then money back.
    SJ"

    That's a decent concession.

    I'd put £100 on, if only SJ would let me.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    @edmundintokyo

    Maybe South Basildon & East Thurrock too?
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 610
    I have an email from rcs1000:

    "[politicalbetting] You earned the 10 Comments badge. You earned the 10 Comments badge.

    No longer a one-hit wonder! It looks like you’re going places. +5 points"


    Is it like the I-Spy books, do I get a feather when I get to 150points?
  • Icarus said:

    I have an email from rcs1000:

    "[politicalbetting] You earned the 10 Comments badge. You earned the 10 Comments badge.

    No longer a one-hit wonder! It looks like you’re going places. +5 points"


    Is it like the I-Spy books, do I get a feather when I get to 150points?

    I've just got the "Name Dropper" badge
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @HL

    Here are the criteria Ireland turned to after their blatant residency criteria were ruled out by (I think) the ECJ:

    "Once your right to reside has been established the following 5 factors (which have been set down in Irish and European law) are examined to find out if you are habitually resident in Ireland:

    Length and continuity of residence in Ireland
    Length and purpose of any absence from Ireland
    Nature and pattern of employment
    Your main centre of interest
    Your future intentions to live in Ireland as it appears from the evidence"
  • I see the Orangemen have updated their traditions, and will be doing something different this marching season

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ-SaqUYJZw
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420

    PLYMOUTH SUTTON & DEVONPORT

    Pfft, EiT, do you not read Dr Sven's posts: He wants steep defence-cuts. Devonport would be one of the savings on his list.

    :despairs-sometimes:

  • Given how poorly Cameron has performed recently, Witney has to be a nailed on UKIP gain at the next election surely?

    *Innocent Face*
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    @Neil

    Are you sure?

    They seem to claim balanced budgets can part the seas and turn water into wine.
  • @Jack

    Glad to know the spirit of youth still burns in your loins, Young Jack.

    To be serious and on topic for a moment, Mike's bet looks a great one because there are three ways it can come in:
    1) By-elections (any won now would almost certainly be held at a GE)
    2) Defections
    3) A UKIP surge (ooo-er Missus)

    Or all three, of course.

    I'd put the chances at no worse than 2/1.

    Btw, we really did have a super day on Saturday's AW card - three out of five, including a forecast. I guess you missed it. Matron confiscated your laptop again?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @BenM

    Yeah, I'm pretty sure it's only you who's confused about the difference between a fiscal crisis and a banking crisis.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,691
    edited March 2013
    Pop music related betting post

    PJ & Duncan's Let's get ready to Rhumble surged up the iTunes chart yesterday.

    Ant & Dec to be number one in the official top 40 chart on Sunday 31st March is now 8/11 with Ladbrokes
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @Neil

    Thanks for that, Mr. Neil. I am not sure that I understand how said criteria would be applied to a new entrant who has some creative imagination (or a good advisor) but if Ireland can make it work maybe the UK can too. We shall see.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Peter_the_Punter

    Isn't the bet Ukip seats won at the 2015 GE ??
  • @Jack

    Er...yes.

    Am I missing something, or are we both going senile?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited March 2013


    I've just got the "Name Dropper" badge

    Me too.

    "Badges! We don't need no stinking badges!"

  • I've just got the "Name Dropper" badge


    Me too.

    "Badges! We don't need no stinking badges!"
    We need some more Blazing Saddles themed badges.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,297
    In light of the Arctic weather and impending power cuts, I was going to do a post about how Britain was going to be divided by warmth not wealth: the have hot and the have not - the heat-deprived being the teeth-chattering classes. But as we no longer have the like button for Old Labour to show his approval of my awful puns, I really can't be arsed....
This discussion has been closed.