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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 5th 2014

Clydesdale South on South Lanarkshire (SNP defence)
Result of last election to council (2012): Labour 33, Scottish Nationalists 28, Conservatives 3, Independents 2, Liberal Democrat 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 1)
Result of last election in ward (2012) :

Read the full story here

surbiton

First ?

TheScreamingEagles

I like David Coburn, The Kipper MEP for Scotland.

He's a proper geek like me.

He calls Salmond a Borg, Sturgeon a Dalek

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/05/ukip-mep-coburn-borg-alex-salmond-dictator_n_5452945.html

ToryJim

Eagles it's interesting they're making a virtue of not being media trained. It will give them a problem sooner or later.

AlastairMeeks

Cons last matched on Betfair at 1.05, now available to lay at 1.04. It looks like someone has decided that it's all over.

Richard_Nabavi

A good summary of the disaster zone which is French politics at the moment:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9226101/french-suicide/

isam

ToryJim said:

Eagles it's interesting they're making a virtue of not being media trained. It will give them a problem sooner or later.

Are you suggesting they do this?

"They take all their candidates and all the people that speak for them, put them in the cellar, thrash them with rubber hoses in stress positions until they trot out the same story. Nobody says anything wrong, there's no humanity them."

Scrapheap_as_was

My highlight of today (not saying much) could well be getting to watch Andrew Neil's coverage until the Newark result - compared to the BBC shambolic lightweight (sack Jeremy Vine for a start) election coverage we've had in recent times with poor insights, pre-set 'results interpretation' etc I'm hoping if his hosting goes well then he may not be in a barge next May but somewhere more useful ...

Freggles

When is the result expected for Newark ?

Also, I'm in a hotel near the British Museum which is closed. Is there anything around here I should go visit this evening?

Carnyx

isam said:

ToryJim said:

Eagles it's interesting they're making a virtue of not being media trained. It will give them a problem sooner or later.

Are you suggesting they do this?

"They take all their candidates and all the people that speak for them, put them in the cellar, thrash them with rubber hoses in stress positions until they trot out the same story. Nobody says anything wrong, there's no humanity them."

Given that the SNP allowed a free vote on the highly contentious issue of NATO membership at their last conference (and lost a couple of MSPs as a result), it makes you wonder what planet Mr Coburn is himself living on. Possibly something out of the late Iain M. Banks's novels.

MikeL

antifrank said:

Cons last matched on Betfair at 1.05, now available to lay at 1.04. It looks like someone has decided that it's all over.

Yes, Con was 1.06/1.07 about 30 mins ago.

Then came in very quickly to 1.03/1.04.

Now 1.03/1.05.

TheScreamingEagles

Freggles said:

When is the result expected for Newark ?

Also, I'm in a hotel near the British Museum which is closed. Is there anything around here I should go visit this evening?

Between 2am and 3am.

Re what to do, the Novello Theatre is about 10 mins walk away from you.

Go see the play Mamma Mia, starts at 7:45.

HurstLlama

Richard_Nabavi said:

A good summary of the disaster zone which is French politics at the moment:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9226101/french-suicide/

Crikey! What a mess.

Freggles

TheScreamingEagles said:

Freggles said:

nWhen is the result expected for Newark ?

Also, I'm in a hotel near the British Museum which is closed. Is there anything around here I should go visit this evening?

Between 2am and 3am.

Re what to do, the Novello Theatre is about 10 mins walk away from you.

Go see the play Mamma Mia, starts at 7:45.

Thanks for the suggestion.
I don't have any money to spend, but don't worry, I wouldn't have done that anyway.

TheScreamingEagles

Freggles: There's one ticket available for £16.40 for Mamma Mia

http://www.fromtheboxoffice.com/find-tickets/?id=5390b24d-0ab8-48ab-b3cc-4220b2fa4c5d

Edit: Posted before I saw your reply.

ToryJim

Richard_Nabavi said:

A good summary of the disaster zone which is French politics at the moment:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9226101/french-suicide/

Interesting Mr Nabavi, I've often wondered if we are heading for a 6th Republic.

Sunil_Prasannan

ToryJim said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

A0 good summary of the disaster zone which is French politics at the moment:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9226101/french-suicide/

Interesting Mr Nabavi, I've often wondered if we are heading for a 6th Republic.

Or Fourth Empire?

TheScreamingEagles

ToryJim said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

A good summary of the disaster zone which is French politics at the moment:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9226101/french-suicide/

Interesting Mr Nabavi, I've often wondered if we are heading for a 6th Republic.

As part of my plans when I become Directly Elected Dictator, I will force France to honour the Treaty of Troyes.

Thus France becomes part of the UK and Fifth Republic ends.

ToryJim

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ToryJim said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

A0 good summary of the disaster zone which is French politics at the moment:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9226101/french-suicide/

Interesting Mr Nabavi, I've often wondered if we are heading for a 6th Republic.

Or Fourth Empire?

Well Jean-Christophe, Prince Napoleon is rather a good looking young cove. Restore the Bonarpartists!!

Sunil_Prasannan

Is this a local election for local people?

Eh_ehm_a_eh

TheScreamingEagles said:

I like David Coburn, The Kipper MEP for Scotland.

He's a proper geek like me.

He calls Salmond a Borg, Sturgeon a Dalek

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/05/ukip-mep-coburn-borg-alex-salmond-dictator_n_5452945.html

The dangers of spending too much time in Yorkshire, laid out before us.

fitalass

I will second that, just wish the BBC would finally give Andrew Neil the job of hosting their GE night coverage.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

My highlight of today (not saying much) could well be getting to watch Andrew Neil's coverage until the Newark result - compared to the BBC shambolic lightweight (sack Jeremy Vine for a start) election coverage we've had in recent times with poor insights, pre-set 'results interpretation' etc I'm hoping if his hosting goes well then he may not be in a barge next May but somewhere more useful ...

fitalass

Did the SNP actually do an official balloted vote on NATO membership, or was it just a stick your hands up head count at their Conference?

Carnyx said:

isam said:

ToryJim said:

Eagles it's interesting they're making a virtue of not being media trained. It will give them a problem sooner or later.

Are you suggesting they do this?

"They take all their candidates and all the people that speak for them, put them in the cellar, thrash them with rubber hoses in stress positions until they trot out the same story. Nobody says anything wrong, there's no humanity them."

Given that the SNP allowed a free vote on the highly contentious issue of NATO membership at their last conference (and lost a couple of MSPs as a result), it makes you wonder what planet Mr Coburn is himself living on. Possibly something out of the late Iain M. Banks's novels.

ToryJim

@TimMontgomerie: I hear David Cameron lobbying hard against Afd joining @ecrgroup. I wonder if Cam has agreed to junk Afd and Merkel will junk @JunckerEU?

ToryJim

fitalass said:

I will second that, just wish the BBC would finally give Andrew Neil the job of hosting their GE night coverage.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

My highlight of today (not saying much) could well be getting to watch Andrew Neil's coverage until the Newark result - compared to the BBC shambolic lightweight (sack Jeremy Vine for a start) election coverage we've had in recent times with poor insights, pre-set 'results interpretation' etc I'm hoping if his hosting goes well then he may not be in a barge next May but somewhere more useful ...

There're wheeling out Dimblezombie for one final hurrah in 2015 aren't they?

MikeK

I've been having my second cataract infested lens replaced today and just got back from hospital. Whats the news re Newark voting levels?

fitalass

Yes, unfortunately. BBC Media centre

ToryJim said:

fitalass said:

I will second that, just wish the BBC would finally give Andrew Neil the job of hosting their GE night coverage.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

My highlight of today (not saying much) could well be getting to watch Andrew Neil's coverage until the Newark result - compared to the BBC shambolic lightweight (sack Jeremy Vine for a start) election coverage we've had in recent times with poor insights, pre-set 'results interpretation' etc I'm hoping if his hosting goes well then he may not be in a barge next May but somewhere more useful ...

There're wheeling out Dimblezombie for one final hurrah in 2015 aren't they?

HurstLlama

Freggles said:

When is the result expected for Newark ?

Also, I'm in a hotel near the British Museum which is closed. Is there anything around here I should go visit this evening?

Gosh, you did chose a boring part of London to stay. Trapped between the tourists to your South and West, The University, to your East, and the great unwashed to the North (there be Dragons up there). However, its a fine evening so all is not lost. In your shoes I would head East make your way through the university sector and get into Clerkenwell (lots of interesting pubs and architecture, bucket loads of history). Later on make your way south into Smithfield - even more history and interesting pubs, the market should be gearing up, and there is a great, and cheap, chinese run workers cafe for some supper (South side of the market on the corner of Long Lane and West Smithfield).

Alternatively you could have a nice evening in contemplating what you are going to do when Russia betrays you in the Diplomacy game.

manofkent2014

For those interested the Nottingham Post have a live blog for the Newark by election starting at 8pm (result expected around 2am):

http://www.nottinghampost.com/LIVE-Newark-election/story-21193350-detail/story.html

HurstLlama

MikeK said:

I've been having my second cataract infested lens replaced today and just got back from hospital. Whats the news re Newark voting levels?

Hope the operation went OK. There has been no news about voting levels in Newark, at least none that I seen reported on here.

Eh_ehm_a_eh

fitalass said:

Did the SNP actually do an official balloted vote on NATO membership, or was it just a stick your hands up head count at their Conference?

426 to 332

AndyJS

Count will start at 10pm at Kelham Hall and the result is expected between 2 and 3am:

http://www.newark-sherwooddc.gov.uk/newarkbyelection/newarkby-electionresults/

Unusual sort of venue for a count, and not in one of the towns either. A few miles north of Newark.

isam

Interesting vid about.. South Thanet!

Farage more or less says he is going to stand there IMO

Hope we are all on at 2/1?


Then a debate ft Mark Reckless, John Denham, Diane James and Jasper Gerard


Diane James comes out with a bit of an odd line

(paraphrase)

'If you are going to call UKIP racist... you will have to call South Africa racist'

Erm...!

Other than that she does well... Denham quoting from UKIPs 2010 manifesto

http://www.itv.com/news/meridian/update/2014-06-05/the-last-word-june-2014/

foxinsoxuk

Hopefully allow you to see the light!

Good weather here in the midlands, so I expect a good turn out.

I've been having my second cataract infested lens replaced today and just got back from hospital. Whats the news re Newark voting levels?

MarkSenior

David Small elected 2 weeks ago as UKIP councillor for Church Hill ward on Redditch BC and
expelled shortly afterwards for making racist and homophobic remarks today resigned his seat . Apparently he is is to stand in the by election as an Independent .

ToryJim

MarkSenior said:

David Small elected 2 weeks ago as UKIP councillor for Church Hill ward on Redditch BC and
expelled shortly afterwards for making racist and homophobic remarks today resigned his seat . Apparently he is is to stand in the by election as an Independent .

Got to be some sort of record short tenure

volcanopete

Harry reminds us of the benefits of STV in Scotland.People are in general better served by a competitive local politics,not one party states of any description.
On Newark, the 4-5 opening show on a Con victory looks pretty big now.

volcanopete

MikeK said:

I've been having my second cataract infested lens replaced today and just got back from hospital. Whats the news re Newark voting levels?

The old NHS comes in handy now and again.I guess you did not have it done privately?

MikeK

volcanopete said:

MikeK said:

I've been having my second cataract infested lens replaced today and just got back from hospital. Whats the news re Newark voting levels?

The old NHS comes in handy now and again.I guess you did not have it done privately?

What can I say to that but agree.

foxinsoxuk

I see that the delightful leicesterliz is on QT tonight, a sight for sore eyes!

As minister for care of older people she has helped put together this report:
http://t.co/OfXNdOSpUu

So at least in healthcare Eds piece of paper is not so blank; seems fairly sound.

50\1 as next Labour leader at Ladbrokes, well she would have my vote!

ToryJim

volcanopete said:

Harry reminds us of the benefits of STV in Scotland.People are in general better served by a competitive local politics,not one party states of any description.
On Newark, the 4-5 opening show on a Con victory looks pretty big now.

I'm coming round to the possibility of STV for local elections. I'd be more inclined towards it in national elections if we didn't have a Parliamentary executive.

peter_from_putney

"Interesting vid about.. South Thanet!

Farage more or less says he is going to stand there IMO

Hope we are all on at 2/1?"

No - I've gone him standing in Buckingham at 33/1.

Quincel

volcanopete said:

Harry reminds us of the benefits of STV in Scotland.People are in general better served by a competitive local politics,not one party states of any description.
On Newark, the 4-5 opening show on a Con victory looks pretty big now.

Huge. I don't know who's stupider: The bookies for offering it or me for not taking it!

ToryJim

@RupertMyers: So UKIP had to spend the day in Newark going around picking up their road signs by order of the council #electionfail

Charles

ToryJim said:

@RupertMyers: So UKIP had to spend the day in Newark going around picking up their road signs by order of the council #electionfail

Tinfoil hat time!

NickPalmer

Hope the op went well, Mike.

Tried to link to the Nottingham Post site listed below, but got a "Your Java plug-in is out of date, update now" message followed by a virus warning from Norton, so have decided to give it a miss.

HurstLlama

ToryJim said:

volcanopete said:

Harry reminds us of the benefits of STV in Scotland.People are in general better served by a competitive local politics,not one party states of any description.
On Newark, the 4-5 opening show on a Con victory looks pretty big now.

I'm coming round to the possibility of STV for local elections. I'd be more inclined towards it in national elections if we didn't have a Parliamentary executive.

Maybe, if Lord Strathclyde's constitutional conference ever happens that might be sorted out. A directly elected PM on FPTP who appoints who he wants to cabinet posts for UK wide stuff, a UK parliament elected on STV and massive devolution (to the counties and cities in England - the rest can do what they think best), would get my vote

Stark_Dawning

manofkent2014 said:

For those interested the Nottingham Post have a live blog for the Newark by election starting at 8pm (result expected around 2am):

http://www.nottinghampost.com/LIVE-Newark-election/story-21193350-detail/story.html

Wow. Their online poll is showing UKIP on 73% massively ahead of the Tories on 11%. If those numbers are anything like reflected in the actual votes cast, then Lord Ashcroft has a lot of explaining to do.

ToryJim

Mr Llama as long as the direct election was 2 rounds as in France but broadly I'd go along with that.

ToryJim

Stark_Dawning said:

manofkent2014 said:

For those interested the Nottingham Post have a live blog for the Newark by election starting at 8pm (result expected around 2am):

http://www.nottinghampost.com/LIVE-Newark-election/story-21193350-detail/story.html

Wow. Their online poll is showing UKIP on 73% massively ahead of the Tories on 11%. If those numbers are anything like reflected in the actual votes cast, then Lord Ashcroft has a lot of explaining to do.

Almost anyone can vote in that poll. I'm not concerned at this stage.

perdix

TheScreamingEagles said:

ToryJim said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

A good summary of the disaster zone which is French politics at the moment:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9226101/french-suicide/

Interesting Mr Nabavi, I've often wondered if we are heading for a 6th Republic.

As part of my plans when I become Directly Elected Dictator, I will force France to honour the Treaty of Troyes.

Thus France becomes part of the UK and Fifth Republic ends.

Is there not a certain address where HMQ is called "Queen of France"? I've assumed that it refers to the Channel Isles.

ToryJim

Mr perdix, in the Channel Islands the Queen is Duke of Normandy

TheScreamingEagles

steve hawkes ‏@steve_hawkes 1m

Tory source confident of Newark victory with 40 plus per cent - UKIP strong second.. Who knows where Libs will be

ToryJim

@steve_hawkes: Tory source confident of Newark victory with 40 plus per cent - UKIP strong second.. Who knows where Libs will be

TheScreamingEagles

Juncker: I won't beg UK to back my bid for European commission presidency

Exclusive: Frontrunner for top EU job launches angry broadside at Cameron-led opposition

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/05/juncker-european-commission-presidency-cameron

Speedy

Richard_Nabavi said:

A good summary of the disaster zone which is French politics at the moment:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9226101/french-suicide/

I'm not surprised, every center-right french president dissolved his own party to recreate a new one for himself so there is no party tradition and Sarkozy is so corrupt, Gaddafi was publicly blackmailing him.
By default it should be Le Pen vs Holland with Le Pen winning.
Also a further destabilising force is that the parliamentary elections are held a month after the presidencial elections so that the winner of the presidencial one rides the wave to win in parliament too, since they cut the presidential term to 5 years.

SandyRentool

Well I've just participated in the Big Society. Almost an armful, as the saying goes. It is good to see a cross section of society all doing there bit for nothing more than a cup of tea and a biscuit.

So are we expecting a lost deposit for the LDs tonight?

Stark_Dawning

ToryJim said:

Stark_Dawning said:

manofkent2014 said:

For those interested the Nottingham Post have a live blog for the Newark by election starting at 8pm (result expected around 2am):

http://www.nottinghampost.com/LIVE-Newark-election/story-21193350-detail/story.html

Wow. Their online poll is showing UKIP on 73% massively ahead of the Tories on 11%. If those numbers are anything like reflected in the actual votes cast, then Lord Ashcroft has a lot of explaining to do.

Almost anyone can vote in that poll. I'm not concerned at this stage.

Um... I was joking.

Morris_Dancer

Good evening, everyone.

Thanks to Mr. Hayfield for his regular by-election piece.

F1: Ladbrokes is weird. Perez to be winner without Rosberg/Hamilton remains suspended. Don't get that. I'm not a big stakes gambler [as is known], so it's not like the firm's suddenly liable for a huge loss if that comes off.

Mr. Eagles, Juncker's doing a great job of further alienating a country which is:
already quite sceptical
a major contributor, one of very few
possibly going to have a referendum on leaving in the near future
suggesting that the president not only does not need an endorsement from one of the three major players, but that the president can be someone viewed with hostility by one (or more?) of them

Speedy

TheScreamingEagles said:

steve hawkes ‏@steve_hawkes 1m

Tory source confident of Newark victory with 40 plus per cent - UKIP strong second.. Who knows where Libs will be

We know the result for ages, why lose sleep and stay up till 3 am to see the tories winning in one of their safest seats in the country?

TheScreamingEagles

SandyRentool said:

Well I've just participated in the Big Society. Almost an armful, as the saying goes. It is good to see a cross section of society all doing there bit for nothing more than a cup of tea and a biscuit.

So are we expecting a lost deposit for the LDs tonight?

Well I've bet on the Lib Dems holding their deposit.

ToryJim

TheScreamingEagles said:

Juncker: I won't beg UK to back my bid for European commission presidency

Exclusive: Frontrunner for top EU job launches angry broadside at Cameron-led opposition

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/05/juncker-european-commission-presidency-cameron

Oh the poor bloke, not everyone is strewing his path with Palm fronds.

Speedy

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Juncker: I won't beg UK to back my bid for European commission presidency

Exclusive: Frontrunner for top EU job launches angry broadside at Cameron-led opposition

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/05/juncker-european-commission-presidency-cameron

Oh the poor bloke, not everyone is strewing his path with Palm fronds.

Why should they?
He led his party into its first defeat since 1974.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Good evening, everyone.

Thanks to Mr. Hayfield for his regular by-election piece.

F1: Ladbrokes is weird. Perez to be winner without Rosberg/Hamilton remains suspended. Don't get that. I'm not a big stakes gambler [as is known], so it's not like the firm's suddenly liable for a huge loss if that comes off.

Mr. Eagles, Juncker's doing a great job of further alienating a country which is:
already quite sceptical
a major contributor, one of very few
possibly going to have a referendum on leaving in the near future
suggesting that the president not only does not need an endorsement from one of the three major players, but that the president can be someone viewed with hostility by one (or more?) of them

Juncker reminds me of Lucius Tarquinius Superbus at the Battle of Lake Regillus

ToryJim

Mr Dancer the more I see of this putative EU Commission President the further I lean towards exitism.

My elderly neighbour summed it up that Cameron seemed to be doing well taking a 70 year old approach to Juncker's and trying to shoot one down.

volcanopete

ToryJim said:

volcanopete said:

Harry reminds us of the benefits of STV in Scotland.People are in general better served by a competitive local politics,not one party states of any description.
On Newark, the 4-5 opening show on a Con victory looks pretty big now.

I'm coming round to the possibility of STV for local elections. I'd be more inclined towards it in national elections if we didn't have a Parliamentary executive.

In my neck of the woods there have been both one party Tory and Labour states and both in their own way ended up in disaster for the ruling party as in the local ward up in Scotland,the point being that STV is not only good for the smaller parties but, in the long run,for the bigger parties as well.When Manchester was elected 50+ Lab to 0,after I took my tribal hat off,this is likely to be bad news for both Manchester and Labour.It is surely ridiculous there is no Tory representation at all in the cities and for Labour to have none in many more rural areas.I have only just come to this conclusion myself.It could just give local politics the boost it deserves.

ToryJim

volcanopete said:

ToryJim said:

volcanopete said:

Harry reminds us of the benefits of STV in Scotland.People are in general better served by a competitive local politics,not one party states of any description.
On Newark, the 4-5 opening show on a Con victory looks pretty big now.

I'm coming round to the possibility of STV for local elections. I'd be more inclined towards it in national elections if we didn't have a Parliamentary executive.

In my neck of the woods there have been both one party Tory and Labour states and both in their own way ended up in disaster for the ruling party as in the local ward up in Scotland,the point being that STV is not only good for the smaller parties but, in the long run,for the bigger parties as well.When Manchester was elected 50+ Lab to 0,after I took my tribal hat off,this is likely to be bad news for both Manchester and Labour.It is surely ridiculous there is no Tory representation at all in the cities and for Labour to have none in many more rural areas.I have only just come to this conclusion myself.It could just give local politics the boost it deserves.

I agree, there are heavily Tory councils that could do with the discipline decent opposition provides.

audreyanne

ToryJim said:

volcanopete said:

Harry reminds us of the benefits of STV in Scotland.People are in general better served by a competitive local politics,not one party states of any description.
On Newark, the 4-5 opening show on a Con victory looks pretty big now.

I'm coming round to the possibility of STV for local elections. I'd be more inclined towards it in national elections if we didn't have a Parliamentary executive.

Before changing the voting system I'm more vexed by the voting method.

When oh when will we get an electronic voting method? This ancient malarkey of marking a cross, then carting ballot boxes to a counting centre has surely got to stop? An electronic system with instant results might reduce the drama, but it's a drama which has had its day.

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

steve hawkes ‏@steve_hawkes 1m

Tory source confident of Newark victory with 40 plus per cent - UKIP strong second.. Who knows where Libs will be

Who cares! :^O

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jim, it's not just the idiot himself, it's the nature of the role he seeks. It's an inherent flaw with the EU (one of many).

Mr. Eagles, I'd be surprised if Juncker's quite so bad on a personal level...

HurstLlama

audreyanne said:

ToryJim said:

volcanopete said:

Harry reminds us of the benefits of STV in Scotland.People are in general better served by a competitive local politics,not one party states of any description.
On Newark, the 4-5 opening show on a Con victory looks pretty big now.

I'm coming round to the possibility of STV for local elections. I'd be more inclined towards it in national elections if we didn't have a Parliamentary executive.

Before changing the voting system I'm more vexed by the voting method.

When oh when will we get an electronic voting method? This ancient malarkey of marking a cross, then carting ballot boxes to a counting centre has surely got to stop? An electronic system with instant results might reduce the drama, but it's a drama which has had its day.

Tell us how it can be done with the same level of safeguards as in person voting and it might happen.

ToryJim

audreyanne said:

ToryJim said:

volcanopete said:

Harry reminds us of the benefits of STV in Scotland.People are in general better served by a competitive local politics,not one party states of any description.
On Newark, the 4-5 opening show on a Con victory looks pretty big now.

I'm coming round to the possibility of STV for local elections. I'd be more inclined towards it in national elections if we didn't have a Parliamentary executive.

Before changing the voting system I'm more vexed by the voting method.

When oh when will we get an electronic voting method? This ancient malarkey of marking a cross, then carting ballot boxes to a counting centre has surely got to stop? An electronic system with instant results might reduce the drama, but it's a drama which has had its day.

Oh good grief no, nothing better than standing around at a count as votes are counted. Some things in life need tension and anticipation.

HurstLlama

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jim, it's not just the idiot himself, it's the nature of the role he seeks. It's an inherent flaw with the EU (one of many).

Mr. Eagles, I'd be surprised if Juncker's quite so bad on a personal level...

Well Juncker is well rumoured to like a drink so he might not be all bad on a personal level. However, Stalin was also a raging piss-artist so its no guarantee.

MikeL

If Con over 40 and UKIP is a strong second (ie over 30) then that implies Lab has collapsed - maybe under 15!

Monksfield

Ok. Not political but great bet. Simona Halep is 6/4 for the FO final. I think she's been much the most improved player of the last 12 months and I think she wins this. Serious upwards trajectory. However, Maria Sharapova is a notoriously slow starter, and has lost the first set of her R4, QF and SF. Back Halep, and if she wins the first, save on Pova.

ToryJim

Mr Dancer oh I agree the structure conditions the type of unprincipled personages who seek the roles.

RodCrosby

UKIP matched at 50

Swiss_Bob

Nottingham Post has UKIP on 77% in their webpoll.

Obviously can't believe that but they also have the Bus Pass Elvis party one percent ahead of the LibDems, that I can believe!

LogicalSong

ToryJim said:

volcanopete said:

ToryJim said:

volcanopete said:

Harry reminds us of the benefits of STV in Scotland.People are in general better served by a competitive local politics,not one party states of any description.
On Newark, the 4-5 opening show on a Con victory looks pretty big now.

I'm coming round to the possibility of STV for local elections. I'd be more inclined towards it in national elections if we didn't have a Parliamentary executive.

In my neck of the woods there have been both one party Tory and Labour states and both in their own way ended up in disaster for the ruling party as in the local ward up in Scotland,the point being that STV is not only good for the smaller parties but, in the long run,for the bigger parties as well.When Manchester was elected 50+ Lab to 0,after I took my tribal hat off,this is likely to be bad news for both Manchester and Labour.It is surely ridiculous there is no Tory representation at all in the cities and for Labour to have none in many more rural areas.I have only just come to this conclusion myself.It could just give local politics the boost it deserves.

I agree, there are heavily Tory councils that could do with the discipline decent opposition provides.

Eastleigh has 40 LibDems and 4 Tories on the council. Surely STV would let a few Labour on to provide some opposition.

Speedy

MikeL said:

If Con over 40 and UKIP is a strong second (ie over 30) then that implies Lab has collapsed - maybe under 15!

I don't think UKIP is that strong second, right before every by election victory the winner always downplays his chances and overstates his enemy.
Remember South Shields which Labour said it was neck and neck?

RodCrosby

LogicalSong said:

ToryJim said:

volcanopete said:

ToryJim said:

volcanopete said:

Harry reminds us of the benefits of STV in Scotland.People are in general better served by a competitive local politics,not one party states of any description.
On Newark, the 4-5 opening show on a Con victory looks pretty big now.

I'm coming round to the possibility of STV for local elections. I'd be more inclined towards it in national elections if we didn't have a Parliamentary executive.

In my neck of the woods there have been both one party Tory and Labour states and both in their own way ended up in disaster for the ruling party as in the local ward up in Scotland,the point being that STV is not only good for the smaller parties but, in the long run,for the bigger parties as well.When Manchester was elected 50+ Lab to 0,after I took my tribal hat off,this is likely to be bad news for both Manchester and Labour.It is surely ridiculous there is no Tory representation at all in the cities and for Labour to have none in many more rural areas.I have only just come to this conclusion myself.It could just give local politics the boost it deserves.

I agree, there are heavily Tory councils that could do with the discipline decent opposition provides.

Eastleigh has 40 LibDems and 4 Tories on the council. Surely STV would let a few Labour on to provide some opposition.

Biggest error the LDs made, was not demanding local STV in 2010.

Sean_F

ToryJim said:

audreyanne said:

ToryJim said:

volcanopete said:

Harry reminds us of the benefits of STV in Scotland.People are in general better served by a competitive local politics,not one party states of any description.
On Newark, the 4-5 opening show on a Con victory looks pretty big now.

I'm coming round to the possibility of STV for local elections. I'd be more inclined towards it in national elections if we didn't have a Parliamentary executive.

Before changing the voting system I'm more vexed by the voting method.

When oh when will we get an electronic voting method? This ancient malarkey of marking a cross, then carting ballot boxes to a counting centre has surely got to stop? An electronic system with instant results might reduce the drama, but it's a drama which has had its day.

Oh good grief no, nothing better than standing around at a count as votes are counted. Some things in life need tension and anticipation.

IIRC, you're from Barnet. That count must have been a nail-biter.

ToryJim

Sean_F said:

ToryJim said:

audreyanne said:

ToryJim said:

volcanopete said:

Harry reminds us of the benefits of STV in Scotland.People are in general better served by a competitive local politics,not one party states of any description.
On Newark, the 4-5 opening show on a Con victory looks pretty big now.

I'm coming round to the possibility of STV for local elections. I'd be more inclined towards it in national elections if we didn't have a Parliamentary executive.

Before changing the voting system I'm more vexed by the voting method.

When oh when will we get an electronic voting method? This ancient malarkey of marking a cross, then carting ballot boxes to a counting centre has surely got to stop? An electronic system with instant results might reduce the drama, but it's a drama which has had its day.

Oh good grief no, nothing better than standing around at a count as votes are counted. Some things in life need tension and anticipation.

IIRC, you're from Barnet. That count must have been a nail-biter.

I'm from the solidly Tory Broxbourne, we had one close result this year.

NickPalmer

Agree about local council PR. We usually have hung councils in Broxtowe with all-party representation on committees, and to be honest it works better than councils with 100% from anyone - all that happens then is that the bored councillors start forming factions against each other. If local PR is the price for a coalition if needed, I'll pay it in a heartbeat.

isam

Classy old Daily Mirror

Nigel Farage: I help a disabled blonde woman back to the hotel – and the tabloids rejoice

"This time I have returned from an industry event following an invitation much earlier in the year to address delegates at their national conference to a disgraceful front page “story” in the Daily Mirror. That group of papers now seem to view me as a paparazzi target; their alliance with Hope Not Hate and other assorted left wing extremists promoting negativity against Ukip having failed to stop us succeed in the recent elections.

And what were these shocking actions which resulted in me being a front page tabloid story and my wife being doorstepped by a sleazy hack waving grainy photographs? Helping a partially disabled woman who has to walk using crutches back to the hotel all the delegates were staying in. Being blonde and talking to me without taking to Twitter to slag me off made her, in the eyes of that paper, an acceptable target for intrusion."

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/nigel-farage-i-help-a-disabled-blonde-woman-back-to-the-hotel--and-the-tabloids-rejoice-9494936.html

MonikerDiCanio

MikeL said:

If Con over 40 and UKIP is a strong second (ie over 30) then that implies Lab has collapsed - maybe under 15!

Has Labour given up on middle England or has middle England given up on them? Surely the worst official opposition in living memory.

Speedy

I have a feeling the tories are going to win with about 45%, they threw the kitchen sink so they wont fall much lower that the 5% fall in opinion polls since 2010.

Sean_F

MonikerDiCanio said:

MikeL said:

If Con over 40 and UKIP is a strong second (ie over 30) then that implies Lab has collapsed - maybe under 15!

Has Labour given up on middle England or has middle England given up on them? Surely the worst official opposition in living memory.

That would imply a swing to the Right of more than 15%, compared to 2010.

welshowl

HurstLlama said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jim, it's not just the idiot himself, it's the nature of the role he seeks. It's an inherent flaw with the EU (one of many).

Mr. Eagles, I'd be surprised if Juncker's quite so bad on a personal level...

Well Juncker is well rumoured to like a drink so he might not be all bad on a personal level. However, Stalin was also a raging piss-artist so its no guarantee.

Hitler was a veggie teetotaller and so a great argument for enjoying a burger and a pint. I rather like politicians with flaws. Shows they're human and like the rest of us. It's the monastic zealots you've got to be wary of.

Speedy

MonikerDiCanio said:

MikeL said:

If Con over 40 and UKIP is a strong second (ie over 30) then that implies Lab has collapsed - maybe under 15!

Has Labour given up on middle England or has middle England given up on them? Surely the worst official opposition in living memory.

It might be Labour tactical votes to the Tories, they really tried to get them in the last days.
I think this will be the first election in history that Labour voters voted tactically for the Conservatives.

Sunil_Prasannan

welshowl said:

HurstLlama said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jim, it's not just the idiot himself, it's the nature of the role he seeks. It's an inherent flaw with the EU (one of many).

Mr. Eagles, I'd be surprised if Juncker's quite so bad on a personal level...

Well Juncker is well rumoured to like a drink so he might not be all bad on a personal level. However, Stalin was also a raging piss-artist so its no guarantee.

Hitler was a veggie teetotaller

Hey! So am I - but I genuinely believe in non-violence

manofkent2014

TheScreamingEagles said:

Juncker: I won't beg UK to back my bid for European commission presidency

Exclusive: Frontrunner for top EU job launches angry broadside at Cameron-led opposition

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/05/juncker-european-commission-presidency-cameron

One things for sure if Juncker is appointed after this he's not going to be the slightest bit sympathetic to Cameron or the UK's cause. Cameron better have it stitched up.....

Sunil_Prasannan

RodCrosby said:

LogicalSong said:

ToryJim said:

volcanopete said:

ToryJim said:

volcanopete said:

Harry reminds us of the benefits of STV in Scotland.People are in general better served by a competitive local politics,not one party states of any description.
On Newark, the 4-5 opening show on a Con victory looks pretty big now.

I'm coming round to the possibility of STV for local elections. I'd be more inclined towards it in national elections if we didn't have a Parliamentary executive.

In my neck of the woods there have been both one party Tory and Labour states and both in their own way ended up in disaster for the ruling party as in the local ward up in Scotland,the point being that STV is not only good for the smaller parties but, in the long run,for the bigger parties as well.When Manchester was elected 50+ Lab to 0,after I took my tribal hat off,this is likely to be bad news for both Manchester and Labour.It is surely ridiculous there is no Tory representation at all in the cities and for Labour to have none in many more rural areas.I have only just come to this conclusion myself.It could just give local politics the boost it deserves.

I agree, there are heavily Tory councils that could do with the discipline decent opposition provides.

Eastleigh has 40 LibDems and 4 Tories on the council. Surely STV would let a few Labour on to provide some opposition.

Biggest error the LDs made, was not demanding local STV in 2010.

STV is the best!

weejonnie

manofkent2014 said:

For those interested the Nottingham Post have a live blog for the Newark by election starting at 8pm (result expected around 2am):

http://www.nottinghampost.com/LIVE-Newark-election/story-21193350-detail/story.html

*** MY AV picked up two infected files from this website - suspect it has been hacked. AVOID ***

ToryJim

manofkent2014 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Juncker: I won't beg UK to back my bid for European commission presidency

Exclusive: Frontrunner for top EU job launches angry broadside at Cameron-led opposition

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/05/juncker-european-commission-presidency-cameron

One things for sure if Juncker is appointed after this he's not going to be the slightest bit sympathetic to Cameron or the UK's cause. Cameron better have it stitched up.....

Has anyone ever? I mean they may pretend but ultimately they ignore us, or shaft us.

foxinsoxuk

I believe there is evidence that Hitler was fond of liver dumplings, so not a vegetarian:

http://hitlershealth.greyfalcon.us/vegetarian.html

but not liking beer puts him beyond the pale...

welshowl said:

HurstLlama said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jim, it's not just the idiot himself, it's the nature of the role he seeks. It's an inherent flaw with the EU (one of many).

Mr. Eagles, I'd be surprised if Juncker's quite so bad on a personal level...

Well Juncker is well rumoured to like a drink so he might not be all bad on a personal level. However, Stalin was also a raging piss-artist so its no guarantee.

Hitler was a veggie teetotaller and so a great argument for enjoying a burger and a pint. I rather like politicians with flaws. Shows they're human and like the rest of us. It's the monastic zealots you've got to be wary of.

Monksfield

isam said:

Classy old Daily Mirror

Nigel Farage: I help a disabled blonde woman back to the hotel – and the tabloids rejoice

"This time I have returned from an industry event following an invitation much earlier in the year to address delegates at their national conference to a disgraceful front page “story” in the Daily Mirror. That group of papers now seem to view me as a paparazzi target; their alliance with Hope Not Hate and other assorted left wing extremists promoting negativity against Ukip having failed to stop us succeed in the recent elections.

And what were these shocking actions which resulted in me being a front page tabloid story and my wife being doorstepped by a sleazy hack waving grainy photographs? Helping a partially disabled woman who has to walk using crutches back to the hotel all the delegates were staying in. Being blonde and talking to me without taking to Twitter to slag me off made her, in the eyes of that paper, an acceptable target for intrusion."

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/nigel-farage-i-help-a-disabled-blonde-woman-back-to-the-hotel--and-the-tabloids-rejoice-9494936.html

Don't know about the blonde but WTF was Farage doing in Malta during the final days of the first winnable by election since Eastleigh. Seize the Moment Nigel.....

asjohnstone

STV is ok, but I think MMP is better at directly reflecting votes to seats.

Speedy

Lets focus attention on Clydesdale South, its result will come earlier than Newark, its more unpredictable and might give a glimpse to the SNP's strength before the referendum.

welshowl

Sunil_Prasannan said:

welshowl said:

HurstLlama said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jim, it's not just the idiot himself, it's the nature of the role he seeks. It's an inherent flaw with the EU (one of many).

Mr. Eagles, I'd be surprised if Juncker's quite so bad on a personal level...

Well Juncker is well rumoured to like a drink so he might not be all bad on a personal level. However, Stalin was also a raging piss-artist so its no guarantee.

Hitler was a veggie teetotaller

Hey! So am I - but I genuinely believe in non-violence

Well just to be clear, I'm not making a connection between you and the erstwhile German leader!!!! And hopefully we all believe in non violence ( though sometimes accountants, lawyers, and customers in that order drive me towards evil thoughts......)

AveryLP

isam said:

Classy old Daily Mirror

Nigel Farage: I help a disabled blonde woman back to the hotel – and the tabloids rejoice

"This time I have returned from an industry event following an invitation much earlier in the year to address delegates at their national conference to a disgraceful front page “story” in the Daily Mirror. That group of papers now seem to view me as a paparazzi target; their alliance with Hope Not Hate and other assorted left wing extremists promoting negativity against Ukip having failed to stop us succeed in the recent elections.

And what were these shocking actions which resulted in me being a front page tabloid story and my wife being doorstepped by a sleazy hack waving grainy photographs? Helping a partially disabled woman who has to walk using crutches back to the hotel all the delegates were staying in. Being blonde and talking to me without taking to Twitter to slag me off made her, in the eyes of that paper, an acceptable target for intrusion."

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/nigel-farage-i-help-a-disabled-blonde-woman-back-to-the-hotel--and-the-tabloids-rejoice-9494936.html

Sam

Nige has been much maligned.

I hope after all the exertions of the week he finds joy in Newark tonight.