Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Britain is a how many party system?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Britain is a how many party system?
The main news narrative over in recent days has been “Britain is a four party system country” following the success of UKIP in the county council elections, I, however would counter that by saying “Britain is in fact a thirteen party system” and hasn’t been a four party system for well over twenty years
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Previously a firm believer in FTPT, I think a shift to PR (maybe STV, but I hope not) is inevitable over the next decade.
A Labour majority with 30% and/or zero UKIP seats with 25% will be seen as so manifestly unfair that public pressure will lead to a change.
We have Germanic parliamentary future!
Liberal Democrat Sir David Russell Johnston 13,258 26.0%
Labour David John Stewart 12,800 25.1%
SNP Fergus Stewart Ewing 12,562 24.7%
Conservative John Scott 11,517 22.6%
Green John Martin 766 1.5%
Majority 458 0.9 −10.6
Turnout 50,903 73.6 +2.7
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverness,_Nairn_and_Lochaber_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
According to the ONS today between 2005 and 2011 the UK fell from 5th to 12th in terms of household income. Really a remarkable fall: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_310463.pdf
It also fell 12 places in respect of unemployment.
The chart on p18 of the report in respect of public sector debt is equally depressing. At the end of the period we were still below the EU average but catching up very fast with all our previous advantage (largely the outcome of North Sea tax revenues) lost.
And more than 30% of our population want to trust the party responsible for this with our governance once again? Bah!
In UK terms you'd have to include the NI parties, who've clocked over 1% at elections over the years.
All of these weaken the "it's happened before" argument, and my view is that, in totality, they'll overturn it. You can tell me how wrong I was in 2023!
Edited extra bit: very interesting article, incidentally, Mr. Hayfield.
Next you'll be admitting Caesar is superior to Hannibal in every way imaginable.
http://survation.com/2013/05/icm-research-shows-ukip-support-doubling-in-29-days-another-clear-indication-polling-industry-methodology-needs-to-change/
Why should they charge?
Only two years ago we had a referendum and the outcome in favour of first past the post was overwhelming.
Msrs. Polruan/Eagles, very good.
"Only two years ago we had a referendum and the outcome in favour of first past the post was overwhelming."
Or more accurately, you old yellow perilist, the majority against AV was overwhelming.
Survation may be right, but there will always be a point when a rising party has to be treated more systematically by polling companies. Its easier for internet pollsters as they can just list them, on the phone not so easy.
For; Ken Clark David Cameron Ed Milliband Nick Clegg Paddy Ashdown Shirley Williams Michael Hesseltine Tony Blair Gordon Brown and Richard Branson
Against; Jacob Rees Mogg Nigel Lawson Norman Lamont Peter Bone Nigel Farage John Redwood Rupert Murdoch Bill Cash Michael Gove and Stuart Wheeler
I might have inadvertently missed the odd person but there really is no contest. Those against are for the most part seen as a bunch of freaks and oddballs.
Cameron should have no fear of a referendum because It's a done deal
1) Tories talk about Europe.
2) More voters remember the existence of UKIP when asked by pollsters.
3) Con score drops.
4) Tories freak out.
5) Go back to step (1).
South Holland and the Deepings
Castle Point
Rayleigh and Wickford
Folkestone and Hythe
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
http://stephentall.org/2013/05/14/where-ukip-won-or-almost-won-on-2nd-may-2013/
http://survation.com/2013/05/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/
Running tally: 14 seats
You missed out the most polished, tv friendly and frequently seen on BBC of the lot from the second group...
Michael Portillo...
not to mention Jamie Oliver...
But you kept the ugly old ones there in while remembering the trendy types in the "Stay in" camp.
No bias intended Im sure
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/01/14/and-so-onto-barnsley-central/
please be nicer to Roger, he's going through a tough patch atm. All his show biz mates keep getting asked awkward questions by Her Majesty's Constabulary, his social calendar has collapsed, he has no mates left in Cannes and is facing the prospect of a rainy holiday in Clacton on Sea just to soak up some glamour.
"Ken Clark David Cameron Ed Milliband Nick Clegg Paddy Ashdown Shirley Williams Michael Hesseltine Tony Blair Gordon Brown and Richard Branson"
Excepting Cameron and Brown, weren't all the others in favour of joining the euro too?
"Lord Mandelson’s horrifying admission that the Labour Party “sent out search parties” to ensure a wave of migration came to Britain is surely one of the most devastating revelations in the history of that party.
After all, Labour was set up as a party for the ordinary British working man – the blue-collar grafter. Linked to trade unions, it was meant to fight for the very people who are now taking the brunt of the pain caused by mass open-door immigration.
It is a truly wretched legacy. Think about it. New Labour in government essentially embarked upon a policy of giving up on the prosperity and life chances of their own citizens in favour of an opportunistic project to change the make-up of Britain. The outcome is that in the first year of the Coalition, out of 181,000 extra people of working age who found work, only 14,000 were British nationals."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10056484/Rate-rise-will-trigger-economic-shock-former-BoE-policymakers-warn.html
"Ken Clark David Cameron Ed Milliband Nick Clegg Paddy Ashdown Shirley Williams Michael Hesseltine Tony Blair Gordon Brown and Richard Branson"
That list is as good a reason to vote "out" as any I can think of.
http://www.ukip.org/index.php/get-involved/support-ukip/activist
energy prices are a ripoff because of green taxes and falling capacity.
labour introduced the taxes and EdM refused to build the power stations.
but keep posting.
Pretty much on the fence. He said he doesn't see it happening in his political life time, but says nothing about what he thought about it in the past...probably because he's never had to.
BBC ticker.
Will Harman ever speak out about this and other cases.
Bonnie was born in a village near Neath.
The best way to reduce bills would be to go back in time, shoot EdM before he becomes Energy Secretary, replace him with a look-alike, expand energy from waste and include polar bears in the waste (sorry, Neil).
Crybaby, jailbird and a humbug.
Euroholics Anonymous?
But if you think trolling Cameron's going to cut your bills go ahead.
What you are saying is that *no* change should ever be made because someone will lose out and bitch on the media.
The key is to try to mitigate the effects on people, or to have firm enough control to brush off the complaints, especially if they are spurious.
To my mind, the proposed change is fairly sane. The current system is broken, and prone to abuse by the energy companies, as I have detailed passim.
How is this different from what that animal did who has been sent down for a minimum of 38 years.
Only two parties supply the leadership of governments. In addition, there is a third party which may, from time to time, form an alliance with either of the other two but which also provides the voters with the option to vote against the other two - except when it is in coalition with one of them. At that point, the 'plus' may come in, in the form of other parties, though most notably UKIP at them moment to fill the void.
It's also worth noting that although nationally there may be predominantly four parties scoring in the polls at the moment (or five in Wales; UKIP aren't a factor in Scotland yet), there are very few specific places where all or even most are in contention. Most seats will remain one- or two-party mini-systems which, as SO rightly noted centre around Tory/anti-Tory or Labour/anti-Labour contests.
Kevan Jones MP on twitter: "Unite union accused of manipulating Labour selection procedures http://gu.com/p/3fndk/tw via @guardian Union & Hartlepool Peter remember!"
Kevan Jones is the North Durham MP...from GMB.... he's usually credited for having helped "fixing" Hartlepool selection in 1992...he's said to have been instrumental in implanting David Miliband in South Shields too...basically the regional fixer
So although hundreds of thousands (including lazy sods like me) will benefit from this change this was a "brain fart" and presumably power companies should have been allowed to go on messing about with tariffs ripping us off?
If the vast majority are now to be on the best rate it stands to reason that that rate will be somewhat higher than the very best rate available to a handful which largely existed to justify the claims that they were somehow cheaper than their rivals. This does not make the scheme a failure, it simply imposes some fairness on a defective market that was being abused.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-22518684
Ethical standards = PC speak?
Presumably Peter has no problem with manipulating selections in, say, Stoke.
It's reminiscent (although not quite as mad) as when the Conservative MP was investigated for calling some scruffy urchin 'unkempt'.
Freedom of speech has got to include the freedom to be disagreeable, obnoxious and offensive, otherwise it's no freedom at all. And who determines what words and sentiments are off-limits? Should we all buy PC dictionaries?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100216918/an-inout-referendum-and-a-bill-in-this-session-david-cameron-has-delivered/
"In any event, tomorrow’s division is now an irrelevance. The vote that matters is the one on the referendum Bill itself which, unlike the declaratory amendment to the Queen’s Speech, will have legislative force. Supporters of an In/Out vote, in all parties, should focus on that Bill when it comes.
My impression, having taken soundings this morning, is that most of the people for whom the EU is the main issue are now satisfied. The comment thread that follows will, of course, tell a different story. "
Any update on rEd's open goal ?
".... while the majority on standard tariffs may get savings averaging around £34.
I appreciate you are far-rightist on cutting benefits for the poorest and most vulnerable, so I guess this is consistent with your repulsive reactionary outlook, enjoying as you do, a noticeably high family income.
http://ericjoyce.co.uk/2013/05/fkuk-working-class-mps/
"‘I don’t understand something’, a Latvian MEP told me this morning. ‘Cameron supports a referendum on leaving the EU, yes?
But Miliband and the other guy, the Liberal, they oppose it. So why don’t Eurosceptics attack Labour and the Liberals?’"
The other guy - LOL, should refer to Clegg as that from now on.
(no googling now).