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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-Mori poll on Scottish Independence sees Yes cut No’s lead by 7 per cent

The latest poll for STV News shows that ‘Yes’ has gained ground since our last poll in February 2014. Among those certain to vote in the referendum 36% would vote Yes (up by 4 percentage points) while 54% would vote No (down by 3 points) and 10% are undecided (down by 1 point).

Read the full story here

AveryLP

FPT

ThomasNashe said:

murali_s said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

This poll leaves me slightly saddened but fairly smug.

I did say from the start that the Tories would not lose Newark. In spite of what some might claim it is certainly not natural UKIP territory and I do not believe there was ever a chance of the winning here. I think that they were additionally hampered by their choice of candidate but I am almost of the opinion that no matter who they chose this would be a Tory hold.

Yep, very good call. I believed that UKIP would run the Tories very close here. The UKIP candidate as well the general demographic makeup (as well as the Tories's GOTV operation) has made this a comfortable hold.

I do wonder how Diane James might have done. But Richard obviously knows the constituency and I respect his view.

If College had studied Horace more diligently at Dulwich, he would have understood the meaning of "carpe diem".

ToryJim

Well another poll showing No way in front. Should be concerning to Yes, the gap has narrowed a touch but not enough to give much succour.

Richard_Tyndall

FPT (and to counter Avery's ill informed thrashing about)

ThomasNashe said:

"I do wonder how Diane James might have done. But Richard obviously knows the constituency and I respect his view."

I certainly think she would have done better but the constituency is certainly not one that is amenable to the UKIP message of 'foreigners taking our jobs' or 'changing our way of life' (both of which I believe personally to be poor messages for the party to be pushing). As I said weeks ago the town has benefited from a well integrated Eastern European community for many decades - I grew up thinking Begos was a British dish as so many of my friends' mothers cooked it at home.

UKIP might have been able to make headway on a 'knock the establishment' or a broadly Eurosceptic message and with a better candidate but even then I think they would have struggled here.

Of course I could still be proved wonderfully wrong but my gut feeling (and it is a not inconsiderable gut) is that this has always been a safe Tory hold.

kieran

FPT - Just a quick response to Charles' post.

I agree that even if the Tories win Newark the UKIP bubble is not likely to burst immediately - although it may take the froth away which has been added after the Euros.

The most important thing a Tory hold would do is soothe unease in the party and assist with party unity.

I expect (based on a Tory hold) UKIP to drift back to their pre-euro position in GE polling (i.e 10 - 15 pt range). The Tory hope is this will drift further as we get into conference season and the media turns its attention elsewhere.

I personally feel that UKIP are unlikely to fall much below 8 - 10% as they have now been above this level for a substantial amount of time, but there is certainly the potential for them to fall lower in a GE run up squeeze.

JackW

Launch of the ARSE 2015 General Election "JackW Dozen"

9:00am Tuesday 3rd June.

ToryJim

JackW said:

Launch of the ARSE 2015 General Election "JackW Dozen"

9:00am Tuesday 3rd June.

Are you going to indicate how you think they'll go at present?

Toms

From previous thread: CON 25, LAB 34, LD 6, UKIP 19:
Hummmm---Looks about right, though the LDs could look to gain a few points at the expense of UKIP.
For present thread Renewing my house insurance by 'phone 2day, when I asked the nice Scottish lady to vote "no" as I would miss them terribly she seemed touched.

HYUFD

At the Hay Festival yesterday James Naughtie was saying informally both the Yes and NO camps have it about 57-43 to No. This poll is in that territory. No will be heartened they have their biggest lead amongst the old who are most likely to vote

AveryLP

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT (and to counter Avery's ill informed thrashing about)

ThomasNashe said:

"I do wonder how Diane James might have done. But Richard obviously knows the constituency and I respect his view."

I certainly think she would have done better but the constituency is certainly not one that is amenable to the UKIP message of 'foreigners taking our jobs' or 'changing our way of life' (both of which I believe personally to be poor messages for the party to be pushing). As I said weeks ago the town has benefited from a well integrated Eastern European community for many decades - I grew up thinking Begos was a British dish as so many of my friends' mothers cooked it at home.

UKIP might have been able to make headway on a 'knock the establishment' or a broadly Eurosceptic message and with a better candidate but even then I think they would have struggled here.

Of course I could still be proved wonderfully wrong but my gut feeling (and it is a not inconsiderable gut) is that this has always been a safe Tory hold.

If you were better informed, Richard, you would have referred to the Polish/Ukrainian dish of 'hunter's stew' as "bigos". See, Avery can be useful at times!

As to selection of candidate for the Newark by election, fortune favours the bold, and Farage's best opportunity would have been to ride the crest of the Euros wave and put his personal future at risk for the benefit of the party. All the reasons you set out for the constituency being infertile ground for the kippers are true, but Farage had a chance he is unlikely to get again to contend.

My personal preference for candidate would have been a kipper like you. A non-racist, non-populist who can put a reasonable argument to the electorate intelligently.

But there you go. You and the Faragists make odd bed-fellows.

HurstLlama

What has happened to Nighthawks then? Don't see why I need to be subjected to thinking about Scottish independence polls at this time of night.

AveryLP

HurstLlama said:

What has happened to Nighthawks then? Don't see why I need to be subjected to thinking about Scottish independence polls at this time of night.

It has been shaved, Mr. Llama.

TheScreamingEagles

HurstLlama said:

What has happened to Nighthawks then? Don't see why I need to be subjected to thinking about Scottish independence polls at this time of night.

Nighthawks is on a holiday during these hectic political times.

Plus, the Nats would go ballistic if I didn't do a thread on No's lead being cut by 7%

Omnium

I really hope that the Scots will vote to stay part of the union. I hope much more though that they will, whatever the result, shut up. It's just childish and annoying to endlessly bleat about how unfair things are.

I just don't want to hear Scots banging on about it any more. They're not different, but if they wish to pursue this irrational fantasy then I'm keen to let them.

I have some Scottish ancestry myself. I'm pretty sure that my ancestors were hard people (certainly compared to me) and made hard decisions. They did though decide to embrace Great Britain as their country. Their diaries demonstrate a careful diligence, and lack of complaint. Scotland has gone very wrong if it has lost the stamp of their ancestors.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, I wouldn't worry about the Yes campaign. They don't have a single trebuchet between them.

Toms

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

What has happened to Nighthawks then? Don't see why I need to be subjected to thinking about Scottish independence polls at this time of night.

Nighthawks is on a holiday during these hectic political times.

Plus, the Nats would go ballistic if I didn't do a thread on No's lead being cut by 7%

Your avatar gives me palpitations. And yes, I've discovered I do like yellow boxes
I think I'd better go do something useful.

foxinsoxuk

No are still losers though, and 60-40 is hardly different than 2 years ago.

Never has so much hot air been expended with so little effect, by either side.

.

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

What has happened to Nighthawks then? Don't see why I need to be subjected to thinking about Scottish independence polls at this time of night.

Nighthawks is on a holiday during these hectic political times.

Plus, the Nats would go ballistic if I didn't do a thread on No's lead being cut by 7%

TheScreamingEagles

Toms said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

What has happened to Nighthawks then? Don't see why I need to be subjected to thinking about Scottish independence polls at this time of night.

Nighthawks is on a holiday during these hectic political times.

Plus, the Nats would go ballistic if I didn't do a thread on No's lead being cut by 7%

Your avatar gives me palpitations. And yes, I've discovered I do like yellow boxes
I think I'd better go do something useful.

Only palpitations?

DavidL

60:40 after deletion of the don't knows. No will take that every day of the week. Basically no real progress for Yes in the last 2 weeks. Excellent.

It is actually a long time since I met a DK on the referendum, it is hard to believe many still in that category will vote at all.

TheScreamingEagles

foxinsoxuk said:

No are still losers though, and 60-40 is hardly different than 2 years ago.

Never has so much hot air been expended with so little effect, by either side.

.

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

What has happened to Nighthawks then? Don't see why I need to be subjected to thinking about Scottish independence polls at this time of night.

Nighthawks is on a holiday during these hectic political times.

Plus, the Nats would go ballistic if I didn't do a thread on No's lead being cut by 7%

Actually with Ipsos-Mori 2 years ago it was No 50, Yes 39. So 56/44 but I left that out.

ToryJim

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, I wouldn't worry about the Yes campaign. They don't have a single trebuchet between them.

What about a mangonel?

Socrates

I've realised I've really stopped caring about what happens to Scotland at this point.

JackW

ToryJim said:

JackW said:

Launch of the ARSE 2015 General Election "JackW Dozen"

9:00am Tuesday 3rd June.

Are you going to indicate how you think they'll go at present?

Not tomorrow.

However from next Tuesday every ARSE 2015 GE Projection will also include the projection for each of the thirteen seats.

Toms

TheScreamingEagles said:

Toms said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

What has happened to Nighthawks then? Don't see why I need to be subjected to thinking about Scottish independence polls at this time of night.

Nighthawks is on a holiday during these hectic political times.

Plus, the Nats would go ballistic if I didn't do a thread on No's lead being cut by 7%

Your avatar gives me palpitations. And yes, I've discovered I do like yellow boxes
I think I'd better go do something useful.

Only palpitations?

no

HurstLlama

AveryLP said:

HurstLlama said:

What has happened to Nighthawks then? Don't see why I need to be subjected to thinking about Scottish independence polls at this time of night.

It has been shaved, Mr. Llama.

Don't you start up with Moustacheophobia nonsense again, Mr. P. We had quite enough of that last night.

Just to let you into a family secret when I first met Herself I did sport the same 'tache that I now have, though perhaps a little more Clark Gable than the current walrus. After a couple of years of courting we got into one of those silly bets that lovers often do, which I lost and as a result had to shave off. She took one look and said, "Grow it back".

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jim, not so much as a scorpion.

ToryJim

JackW said:

ToryJim said:

JackW said:

Launch of the ARSE 2015 General Election "JackW Dozen"

9:00am Tuesday 3rd June.

Are you going to indicate how you think they'll go at present?

Not tomorrow.

However from next Tuesday every ARSE 2015 GE Projection will also include the projection for each of the thirteen seats.

Excellent. I shall look forward to it.

Richard_Tyndall

AveryLP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT (and to counter Avery's ill informed thrashing about)

ThomasNashe said:

"I do wonder how Diane James might have done. But Richard obviously knows the constituency and I respect his view."

I certainly think she would have done better but the constituency is certainly not one that is amenable to the UKIP message of 'foreigners taking our jobs' or 'changing our way of life' (both of which I believe personally to be poor messages for the party to be pushing). As I said weeks ago the town has benefited from a well integrated Eastern European community for many decades - I grew up thinking Begos was a British dish as so many of my friends' mothers cooked it at home.

UKIP might have been able to make headway on a 'knock the establishment' or a broadly Eurosceptic message and with a better candidate but even then I think they would have struggled here.

Of course I could still be proved wonderfully wrong but my gut feeling (and it is a not inconsiderable gut) is that this has always been a safe Tory hold.

If you were better informed, Richard, you would have referred to the Polish/Ukrainian dish of 'hunter's stew' as "bigos". See, Avery can be useful at times!

As to selection of candidate for the Newark by election, fortune favours the bold, and Farage's best opportunity would have been to ride the crest of the Euros wave and put his personal future at risk for the benefit of the party. All the reasons you set out for the constituency being infertile ground for the kippers are true, but Farage had a chance he is unlikely to get again to contend.

My personal preference for candidate would have been a kipper like you. A non-racist, non-populist who can put a reasonable argument to the electorate intelligently.

But there you go. You and the Faragists make odd bed-fellows.

Perhaps the difference Avery is that I actually eat the stuff rather than just looking up the name on the internet. :-)

You really should try it. On its own it would make a pretty good argument for Polish migration. Combined with Polish Spirit it would almost be enough to make me vote for a Europhile like Cameron... but not quite. :-)

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Llama, the moustache of a walrus and a figure to match?

Richard_Tyndall

OT: sad to see that the Right in America, having failed to make the (possibly reasonable) argument against prisoner swaps are falling back on simply trashing the reputation of the soldier as if to say he wasn't worth saving.

Whatever the truth of how he was captured or his views on the war, the GOP and Tea Party really are showing themselves to be pretty despicable at the moment.

GIN1138

Broken, sleazy, MacNo on the slide.

Scrapheap_as_was

I trust Hitchin and Harpenden's constituency will be one and show how close to one party nation we blues can aspire to as the yellow bird pretends to be an ex parrot?

Tykejohnno

Tory Cabinet Minister: We’ve Done More Than Maggie

http://order-order.com/2014/06/02/tory-cabinet-minister-weve-done-more-than-maggie/

AveryLP

HurstLlama said:

AveryLP said:

HurstLlama said:

What has happened to Nighthawks then? Don't see why I need to be subjected to thinking about Scottish independence polls at this time of night.

It has been shaved, Mr. Llama.

Don't you start up with Moustacheophobia nonsense again, Mr. P. We had quite enough of that last night.

Just to let you into a family secret when I first met Herself I did sport the same 'tache that I now have, though perhaps a little more Clark Gable than the current walrus. After a couple of years of courting we got into one of those silly bets that lovers often do, which I lost and as a result had to shave off. She took one look and said, "Grow it back".

I have never been able to grow a proper moustache or beard. I did try a number of times in my misspent youth. Ended up all curly and pubic, more like a Dorset environmentalist than scion of the House of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha.

My Moustacheophobia is most definitely routed in envy.

ToryJim

Richard_Tyndall said:

OT: sad to see that the Right in America, having failed to make the (possibly reasonable) argument against prisoner swaps are falling back on simply trashing the reputation of the soldier as if to say he wasn't worth saving.

Whatever the truth of how he was captured or his views on the war, the GOP and Tea Party really are showing themselves to be pretty despicable at the moment.

Didn't Reagan swap prisoners or spies with the USSR? It goes on, the GOP and the Tea Party element are fanatics and it's sad to see them retreat to crazy rubbish like this.

HurstLlama

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, the moustache of a walrus and a figure to match?

I may not be quite as slender as I once was.

corporeal

Tykejohnno said:

Tory Cabinet Minister: We’ve Done More Than Maggie

http://order-order.com/2014/06/02/tory-cabinet-minister-weve-done-more-than-maggie/

Specifically in her first term, which is an argument you could make.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Llama, I was merely jesting (stole the line from Sir Edric's Temple, about Lord Pelham).

Tykejohnno

Seen the Ashcroft national poll = lol ,lets hope YouGov poll will calm the tory nerves ;-)

ToryJim

corporeal said:

Tykejohnno said:

Tory Cabinet Minister: We’ve Done More Than Maggie

http://order-order.com/2014/06/02/tory-cabinet-minister-weve-done-more-than-maggie/

Specifically in her first term, which is an argument you could make.

Oh I think it's fairly probable. The trouble is quite a few of those reported as booing probably weren't born when she left office.

Scrapheap_as_was

Tykejohnno said:

Seen the Ashcroft national poll = lol ,lets hope YouGov poll will calm the tory nerves ;-)

One hurdle at a time. Newark this week is all that counts....next week another 25 and yes a lip or two may wobble in some places

GIN1138

Tykejohnno said:

Seen the Ashcroft national poll = lol ,lets hope YouGov poll will calm the tory nerves ;-)

At 25% was the lowest Conservative share in a national poll since December 2001.

Scott_P

GIN1138 said:

Broken, sleazy, MacNo on the slide.

Like

Max_Edinburgh

DavidL said:

60:40 after deletion of the don't knows. No will take that every day of the week. Basically no real progress for Yes in the last 2 weeks. Excellent.

It is actually a long time since I met a DK on the referendum, it is hard to believe many still in that category will vote at all.

I'd agree with that, I know very, very few undecided voters. This is borne out by the 80%+ certainty for each side. I'm not sure what big event or announcement is likely to radically shift the polls with only a few months to go.

corporeal

ToryJim said:

corporeal said:

Tykejohnno said:

Tory Cabinet Minister: We’ve Done More Than Maggie

http://order-order.com/2014/06/02/tory-cabinet-minister-weve-done-more-than-maggie/

Specifically in her first term, which is an argument you could make.

Oh I think it's fairly probable. The trouble is quite a few of those reported as booing probably weren't born when she left office.

I've written before about the mythologising of Thatcher.

For the first term, you'd have to ignore the Falklands on the grounds that governments can't start defensive wars (but then they don't ever set their own circumstances).

TheScreamingEagles

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

Seen the Ashcroft national poll = lol ,lets hope YouGov poll will calm the tory nerves ;-)

At 25% was the lowest Conservative share in a national poll since December 2001.

Nah, they were on 24% with TNS once and Survation twice in May/June last year

HurstLlama

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, I was merely jesting (stole the line from Sir Edric's Temple, about Lord Pelham).

I thought you had, but as you wrote the line in the first place I am not sure you can nick it. Anyway you should consider having more heroes in your books, especially those equipped with fine moustaches. Not the poncy foreign type, you understand, but the solid walrus of an Englishman.

BobaFett

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

Seen the Ashcroft national poll = lol ,lets hope YouGov poll will calm the tory nerves ;-)

At 25% was the lowest Conservative share in a national poll since December 2001.

It's a clear outlier Gin. The Ashcroft polling has been somewhat bouncy - remember it was this poll that two weeks ago had the Tories ahead!

TheScreamingEagles

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by six points: CON 30%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 17%

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Llama, unlikely in Treasure (his companions are women, more or less). I'll consider it for the future.

ANyway, I'm off for the night.

Tykejohnno

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

Seen the Ashcroft national poll = lol ,lets hope YouGov poll will calm the tory nerves ;-)

At 25% was the lowest Conservative share in a national poll since December 2001.

Gin,tories have got to love bomb the voters and not to do this ;-)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10868019/Anna-Soubry-Some-people-with-immigration-concerns-are-frankly-racist.html

ToryJim

Telegraph front page suggesting French involvement in the corrupt Qatar shenanigans.

JackW

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I trust Hitchin and Harpenden's constituency will be one and show how close to one party nation we blues can aspire to as the yellow bird pretends to be an ex parrot?

I fear I may disappoint you.

The yellow peril still shows distinct signs of life in nearby St Albans, Watford and Three Rivers.

Tykejohnno

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by six points: CON 30%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 17%

Yep,the Ashcroft poll could be on to something,tories going backwards,newark is a must win now.

ToryJim

@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by six points: CON 30%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 17%

MikeL

No question now in my mind that things have moved away from Con a bit.

Polls since Thursday evening:

YouGov: 7, 3, 6
Populus: 1, 5
Ashcroft: 9

Average of those 6 polls = 5.2

Looking at this latest YouGov it looks like a Con to UKIP shift which could make sense post Euro results.

BobaFett

ToryJim said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

OT: sad to see that the Right in America, having failed to make the (possibly reasonable) argument against prisoner swaps are falling back on simply trashing the reputation of the soldier as if to say he wasn't worth saving.

Whatever the truth of how he was captured or his views on the war, the GOP and Tea Party really are showing themselves to be pretty despicable at the moment.

Didn't Reagan swap prisoners or spies with the USSR? It goes on, the GOP and the Tea Party element are fanatics and it's sad to see them retreat to crazy rubbish like this.

He did indeed. Most famously on the Glienicke Bridge between West Berlin and East Germany.

With fog rising off the River Havel it was the sort of scene that might have been scripted by thriller writers.

The Cold War was horrid. But boy, it was cool.

Scrapheap_as_was

Sympathies... in the peoples republic of bercow, we have little to worry of such infestation especially after seeing off that nice mr farage..

foxinsoxuk

This interesting link on Guidos site: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/02/five-myths-ukip-conservatives-farage-newark

Tykejohnno said:

Tory Cabinet Minister: We’ve Done More Than Maggie

http://order-order.com/2014/06/02/tory-cabinet-minister-weve-done-more-than-maggie/

ToryJim

MikeL said:

No question now in my mind that things have moved away from Con a bit.

Polls since Thursday evening:

YouGov: 7, 3, 6
Populus: 1, 5
Ashcroft: 9

Average of those 6 polls = 5.2

Looking at this latest YouGov it looks like a Con to UKIP shift which could make sense post Euro results.

Quite possibly, Weds and Thurs could be interesting.

AveryLP

Richard_Tyndall said:

AveryLP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT (and to counter Avery's ill informed thrashing about)

ThomasNashe said:

If you were better informed, Richard, you would have referred to the Polish/Ukrainian dish of 'hunter's stew' as "bigos". See, Avery can be useful at times!

As to selection of candidate for the Newark by election, fortune favours the bold, and Farage's best opportunity would have been to ride the crest of the Euros wave and put his personal future at risk for the benefit of the party. All the reasons you set out for the constituency being infertile ground for the kippers are true, but Farage had a chance he is unlikely to get again to contend.

My personal preference for candidate would have been a kipper like you. A non-racist, non-populist who can put a reasonable argument to the electorate intelligently.

But there you go. You and the Faragists make odd bed-fellows.

Perhaps the difference Avery is that I actually eat the stuff rather than just looking up the name on the internet. :-)

You really should try it. On its own it would make a pretty good argument for Polish migration. Combined with Polish Spirit it would almost be enough to make me vote for a Europhile like Cameron... but not quite. :-)

Oh I have eaten it many times, Richard.

Remember I spent two decades knocking about Eastern Europe and ate Bigos throughout Poland, Russian, Belarus and the Ukraine both in restaurants and private homes.

Curiously though the first time I encountered it was at dinner in Les Ambassadeurs Club in Hamilton Place off Park Lane. It was in the days of it being a Gentlemen's Club rather than its current role as an upmarket casino. The founder of the Club, a businessman called John Mills, was of Polish origin and I guess this was the reason for the menu choice.

Bigos in its most exalted form, with lumps of sausage, venison, wild boar etc. swimming around in your dish can be a bit overkill though. My preference in Polish dishes would be for a cabbage roll stuffed with a single meat, variously called Golabki or Galumpkis or variants upon such theme..

ToryJim

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Sympathies... in the peoples republic of bercow, we have little to worry of such infestation especially after seeing off that nice mr farage..

Speaking of the speaker, given that since WWII the longest any speaker has served is 9 years one would expect him to step down in the middle of the next Parliament around 2017-8. However given it's Bercow one never knows.

Monksfield

This computer virus story is a bit of an odd one. Smells mighty fishy in so many ways.

BobaFett

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by six points: CON 30%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 17%

Yep,the Ashcroft poll could be on to something,tories going backwards,newark is a must win now.

Easy Tory hold (and this is not reverse ramping - I predicted it a few days ago on here, once we saw the first poll)

The anti Tory vote is split - most Labourites won't lend their vote to Kip as they'd rather have the Tory than Helmer.

I actually agree with Avery for once. A Richard Tyndall-style figure would have been a much better choice in the seat.

Charles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, unlikely in Treasure (his companions are women, more or less). I'll consider it for the future.

ANyway, I'm off for the night.

Do you have something against women with walrus-like mustaches?

NickPalmer

MikeL said:

No question now in my mind that things have moved away from Con a bit.

Polls since Thursday evening:

YouGov: 7, 3, 6
Populus: 1, 5
Ashcroft: 9

Average of those 6 polls = 5.2

Looking at this latest YouGov it looks like a Con to UKIP shift which could make sense post Euro results.

I think that's right. Assuming Newark is a comfortable Tory hold, it'll be interesting to see if things settle back or not. This could be the last by-election in the Parliament - I doubt if any vacancy after, say, October will be filled before the election.

BobaFett

ToryJim said:

Telegraph front page suggesting French involvement in the corrupt Qatar shenanigans.

Oh dear. Link?

Carola

Maywatch. Apols if posted:

http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/06/theresa-may-storms-to-a-12-point-lead-over-boris-in-our-future-leader-poll.html

MikeL

ToryJim said:

MikeL said:

No question now in my mind that things have moved away from Con a bit.

Polls since Thursday evening:

YouGov: 7, 3, 6
Populus: 1, 5
Ashcroft: 9

Average of those 6 polls = 5.2

Looking at this latest YouGov it looks like a Con to UKIP shift which could make sense post Euro results.

Quite possibly, Weds and Thurs could be interesting.

If it is just a Euro results bounce then Con don't need to be too worried - IF they can win Newark and UKIP then fade from the news then things should revert to where they were before.

I certainly can't identify anything in the last week which would cause Con to lose votes at the GE - it's been a quiet week, apart from the Euro results.

Tykejohnno

BobaFett said:

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by six points: CON 30%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 17%

Yep,the Ashcroft poll could be on to something,tories going backwards,newark is a must win now.

Easy Tory hold (and this is not reverse ramping - I predicted it a few days ago on here, once we saw the first poll)

The anti Tory vote is split - most Labourites won't lend their vote to Kip as they'd rather have the Tory than Helmer.

I actually agree with Avery for once. A Richard Tyndall-style figure would have been a much better choice in the seat.

Well bob,if the tories don't win Newark,I will just leave this -

ConservativeHome @ConHome

Theresa May storms to a 12-point lead over Boris in @ConHome's future leader poll http://bit.ly/1nIHLxD

;-)

TheScreamingEagles

BobaFett said:

ToryJim said:

Telegraph front page suggesting French involvement in the corrupt Qatar shenanigans.

Oh dear. Link?

Qatar World Cup 2022: France embroiled in corruption scandal

Uefa president Michel Platini under pressure to explain secret meeting with corrupt World Cup 2022 bid chief

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup/10871065/Qatar-World-Cup-2022-France-embroiled-in-corruption-scandal.html

dugarbandier

Max_Edinburgh said:

DavidL said:

60:40 after deletion of the don't knows. No will take that every day of the week. Basically no real progress for Yes in the last 2 weeks. Excellent.

It is actually a long time since I met a DK on the referendum, it is hard to believe many still in that category will vote at all.

I'd agree with that, I know very, very few undecided voters. This is borne out by the 80%+ certainty for each side. I'm not sure what big event or announcement is likely to radically shift the polls with only a few months to go.

Max_Edinburgh said:

DavidL said:

60:40 after deletion of the don't knows. No will take that every day of the week. Basically no real progress for Yes in the last 2 weeks. Excellent.

It is actually a long time since I met a DK on the referendum, it is hard to believe many still in that category will vote at all.

I'd agree with that, I know very, very few undecided voters. This is borne out by the 80%+ certainty for each side. I'm not sure what big event or announcement is likely to radically shift the polls with only a few months to go.

d'ye think the polling is about to become volatile/unreliable for the forseeable?-

soccer world cup followed by commonwealth games...

I'd think the Scots will not be swayed by such shenanigans in the final poll, but what they say to a pollster might change after a couple of weeks of G.Linker/I.Wright (or whoever)

HurstLlama

Charles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, unlikely in Treasure (his companions are women, more or less). I'll consider it for the future.

ANyway, I'm off for the night.

Do you have something against women with walrus-like mustaches?

Shssssh. He is from Yorkshire, best not embarrass.

AndyJS

UKIP now 10 with Betfair in Newark thanks to the Ashcroft Poll. They were 4 before:

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.113986228

surbiton

FPT:

Tories drop to 25% in latest @LordAshcroft national poll - their lowest in any published survey this year
CON 25
LAB 34
LD 6
UKIP 19

Definitely time for an Ed is Crap thread. The introduction should be written by none other than "guest writer" Dan Hodges.

ToryJim

BobaFett said:

ToryJim said:

Telegraph front page suggesting French involvement in the corrupt Qatar shenanigans.

Oh dear. Link?

Ici http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup/10871065/Qatar-World-Cup-2022-France-embroiled-in-corruption-scandal.html

ToryJim

MikeL said:

ToryJim said:

MikeL said:

No question now in my mind that things have moved away from Con a bit.

Polls since Thursday evening:

YouGov: 7, 3, 6
Populus: 1, 5
Ashcroft: 9

Average of those 6 polls = 5.2

Looking at this latest YouGov it looks like a Con to UKIP shift which could make sense post Euro results.

Quite possibly, Weds and Thurs could be interesting.

If it is just a Euro results bounce then Con don't need to be too worried - IF they can win Newark and UKIP then fade from the news then things should revert to where they were before.

I certainly can't identify anything in the last week which would cause Con to lose votes at the GE - it's been a quiet week, apart from the Euro results.

Queens speech will be interesting. See if there is anything eye catching etc

corporeal

ToryJim said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Sympathies... in the peoples republic of bercow, we have little to worry of such infestation especially after seeing off that nice mr farage..

Speaking of the speaker, given that since WWII the longest any speaker has served is 9 years one would expect him to step down in the middle of the next Parliament around 2017-8. However given it's Bercow one never knows.

Yes, but looking at it, all of them have been older (retiring in their 70s+) or left due to exceptional circumstances (Martin) or health problems.

Given that pre-WWII when there were speakers as young as Bercow (those who didn't suffer health problems) they went longer than 9 years I don't think there'd be an expectation or really any reason for him to go after 9 years.

Richard_Tyndall

AveryLP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AveryLP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT (and to counter Avery's ill informed thrashing about)

ThomasNashe said:

If you were better informed, Richard, you would have referred to the Polish/Ukrainian dish of 'hunter's stew' as "bigos". See, Avery can be useful at times!

As to selection of candidate for the Newark by election, fortune favours the bold, and Farage's best opportunity would have been to ride the crest of the Euros wave and put his personal future at risk for the benefit of the party. All the reasons you set out for the constituency being infertile ground for the kippers are true, but Farage had a chance he is unlikely to get again to contend.

My personal preference for candidate would have been a kipper like you. A non-racist, non-populist who can put a reasonable argument to the electorate intelligently.

But there you go. You and the Faragists make odd bed-fellows.

Perhaps the difference Avery is that I actually eat the stuff rather than just looking up the name on the internet. :-)

You really should try it. On its own it would make a pretty good argument for Polish migration. Combined with Polish Spirit it would almost be enough to make me vote for a Europhile like Cameron... but not quite. :-)

Oh I have eaten it many times, Richard.

Remember I spent two decades knocking about Eastern Europe and ate Bigos throughout Poland, Russian, Belarus and the Ukraine both in restaurants and private homes.

Curiously though the first time I encountered it was at dinner in Les Ambassadeurs Club in Hamilton Place off Park Lane. It was in the days of it being a Gentlemen's Club rather than its current role as an upmarket casino. The founder of the Club, a businessman called John Mills, was of Polish origin and I guess this was the reason for the menu choice.

Bigos in its most exalted form, with lumps of sausage, venison, wild boar etc. swimming around in your dish can be a bit overkill though. My preference in Polish dishes would be for a cabbage roll stuffed with a single meat, variously called Golabki or Galumpkis or variants upon such theme..

Oh no no no. Bigos that has been cooked and frozen and then recooked a few times until all the cabbage has dissolved and the meat melts in your mouth is better than almost any dish on earth.

Speedy

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by six points: CON 30%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 17%

If I'm right this is the highest ever for UKIP on a yougov and the lowest for CON since last June.

BobaFett

Tykejohnno said:

BobaFett said:

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by six points: CON 30%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 17%

Yep,the Ashcroft poll could be on to something,tories going backwards,newark is a must win now.

Easy Tory hold (and this is not reverse ramping - I predicted it a few days ago on here, once we saw the first poll)

The anti Tory vote is split - most Labourites won't lend their vote to Kip as they'd rather have the Tory than Helmer.

I actually agree with Avery for once. A Richard Tyndall-style figure would have been a much better choice in the seat.

Well bob,if the tories don't win Newark,I will just leave this -

ConservativeHome @ConHome

Theresa May storms to a 12-point lead over Boris in @ConHome's future leader poll http://bit.ly/1nIHLxD

;-)

Is this a proper poll or a voodoo?

Tykejohnno

EU loves ukip ;-)


Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick

Tuesday's Times front page - "Europe tells Britain to increase taxes" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/j53DrpceSf

BobaFett

surbiton said:

FPT:

Tories drop to 25% in latest @LordAshcroft national poll - their lowest in any published survey this year
CON 25
LAB 34
LD 6
UKIP 19

Definitely time for an Ed is Crap thread. The introduction should be written by none other than "guest writer" Dan Hodges.

No need. We can ghost write it ourselves. Drum roll.......

The Tories being on 25% is a disaster for Ed Miliband.

manofkent2014

foxinsoxuk said:

This interesting link on Guidos site: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/02/five-myths-ukip-conservatives-farage-newark

Tykejohnno said:

Tory Cabinet Minister: We’ve Done More Than Maggie

http://order-order.com/2014/06/02/tory-cabinet-minister-weve-done-more-than-maggie/

There is nothing interesting in the Queen of Europe's concubine salami slicing polls to create a few statistical myths. The fact the Kellner does not use graphs showing periodic change to prove his point (which would have demonstrated clear trends) suggests the paucity of his argument. Any fool can pick up two polls and create a specious narrative about them.

GIN1138

Tykejohnno said:

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

Seen the Ashcroft national poll = lol ,lets hope YouGov poll will calm the tory nerves ;-)

At 25% was the lowest Conservative share in a national poll since December 2001.

Gin,tories have got to love bomb the voters and not to do this ;-)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10868019/Anna-Soubry-Some-people-with-immigration-concerns-are-frankly-racist.html

I assume that's Ms Soubry finished, but at least it means NP will be MP once more!

ToryJim

corporeal said:

ToryJim said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Sympathies... in the peoples republic of bercow, we have little to worry of such infestation especially after seeing off that nice mr farage..

Speaking of the speaker, given that since WWII the longest any speaker has served is 9 years one would expect him to step down in the middle of the next Parliament around 2017-8. However given it's Bercow one never knows.

Yes, but looking at it, all of them have been older (retiring in their 70s+) or left due to exceptional circumstances (Martin) or health problems.

Given that pre-WWII when there were speakers as young as Bercow (those who didn't suffer health problems) they went longer than 9 years I don't think there'd be an expectation or really any reason for him to go after 9 years.

I dunno, guess it depends who wins the GE and how stupidly Bercow behaves in consequence.

Tykejohnno

BobaFett said:

Tykejohnno said:

BobaFett said:

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by six points: CON 30%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 17%

Yep,the Ashcroft poll could be on to something,tories going backwards,newark is a must win now.

Easy Tory hold (and this is not reverse ramping - I predicted it a few days ago on here, once we saw the first poll)

The anti Tory vote is split - most Labourites won't lend their vote to Kip as they'd rather have the Tory than Helmer.

I actually agree with Avery for once. A Richard Tyndall-style figure would have been a much better choice in the seat.

Well bob,if the tories don't win Newark,I will just leave this -

ConservativeHome @ConHome

Theresa May storms to a 12-point lead over Boris in @ConHome's future leader poll http://bit.ly/1nIHLxD

;-)

Is this a proper poll or a voodoo?

Over 1050 party members responded to the survey. Their responses are checked against a control panel supplied by YouGov

corporeal

BobaFett said:

Tykejohnno said:

BobaFett said:

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by six points: CON 30%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 17%

Yep,the Ashcroft poll could be on to something,tories going backwards,newark is a must win now.

Easy Tory hold (and this is not reverse ramping - I predicted it a few days ago on here, once we saw the first poll)

The anti Tory vote is split - most Labourites won't lend their vote to Kip as they'd rather have the Tory than Helmer.

I actually agree with Avery for once. A Richard Tyndall-style figure would have been a much better choice in the seat.

Well bob,if the tories don't win Newark,I will just leave this -

ConservativeHome @ConHome

Theresa May storms to a 12-point lead over Boris in @ConHome's future leader poll http://bit.ly/1nIHLxD

;-)

Is this a proper poll or a voodoo?

Voodoo-ish.

Survey of party members who respond to survey on ConHome. They say they check it against a control panel supplied by YouGov but I don't know anything about the nature of this checking.

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

Seen the Ashcroft national poll = lol ,lets hope YouGov poll will calm the tory nerves ;-)

At 25% was the lowest Conservative share in a national poll since December 2001.

Nah, they were on 24% with TNS once and Survation twice in May/June last year

I missed these when I had a quick scan through UKPR's historic archive.

TheScreamingEagles

Just watched the latest episode of Game of Thrones.

Bloody hell, that has to be the most violent scene in TV history.

AveryLP

@Richard_Tyndall

Have you got drunk on bison weed (or grass) flavoured Vodka?

If not here is the link to purchase:

http://bit.ly/1hSwhQe

All I shall say is that it needs "an acquired taste"

Tykejohnno

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

Seen the Ashcroft national poll = lol ,lets hope YouGov poll will calm the tory nerves ;-)

At 25% was the lowest Conservative share in a national poll since December 2001.

Gin,tories have got to love bomb the voters and not to do this ;-)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10868019/Anna-Soubry-Some-people-with-immigration-concerns-are-frankly-racist.html

I assume that's Ms Soubry finished, but at least it means NP will be MP once more!

Don't know,I've got the feeling Mr palmer thinks it rather than say it ;-)

TheScreamingEagles

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

Seen the Ashcroft national poll = lol ,lets hope YouGov poll will calm the tory nerves ;-)

At 25% was the lowest Conservative share in a national poll since December 2001.

Nah, they were on 24% with TNS once and Survation twice in May/June last year

I missed these when I had a quick scan through UKPR's historic archive.

You need a spreadsheet with all these polls on.

Makes finding highest/lowest polls very easy

Speedy

Tykejohnno said:

EU loves ukip ;-)


Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick

Tuesday's Times front page - "Europe tells Britain to increase taxes" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/j53DrpceSf

Ouch. Has a nice ring as an election slogan for eurosceptics.

TheScreamingEagles

Tykejohnno said:

EU loves ukip ;-)


Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick

Tuesday's Times front page - "Europe tells Britain to increase taxes" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/j53DrpceSf

Is this story

George Osborne’s flagship Help to Buy scheme must be reined in and council tax should be increased to stop house prices getting out of control, the European Commission has said.

In a dramatic intervention in UK Government policy, the commission called on the Chancellor to “deploy appropriate measures” because of rising house prices, particularly in London.

Mr Osborne should adjust the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme and increase council tax on expensive properties, the commission said.

The suggestion that Help to Buy is fuelling a potentially damaging property boom will anger ministers and comes as David Cameron prepares to reform Britain’s relationship with the European Union before holding an in-out referendum in 2017.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/10870950/George-Osborne-told-to-rein-in-Help-to-Buy-by-European-Commission.html

GIN1138

Tykejohnno said:

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

Seen the Ashcroft national poll = lol ,lets hope YouGov poll will calm the tory nerves ;-)

At 25% was the lowest Conservative share in a national poll since December 2001.

Gin,tories have got to love bomb the voters and not to do this ;-)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10868019/Anna-Soubry-Some-people-with-immigration-concerns-are-frankly-racist.html

I assume that's Ms Soubry finished, but at least it means NP will be MP once more!

Don't know,I've got the feeling Mr palmer thinks it rather than say it ;-)

I'm sure he does...

Still think Soubry has sealed her fate though.

Richard_Tyndall

AveryLP said:

@Richard_Tyndall

Have you got drunk on bison weed (or grass) flavoured Vodka?

If not here is the link to purchase:

http://bit.ly/1hSwhQe

All I shall say is that it needs "an acquired taste"

I never knew that was what it was but I have drunk the vodka with the grass. Not my favourite. I preferred the pepper vodka.

ToryJim

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tykejohnno said:

EU loves ukip ;-)


Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick

Tuesday's Times front page - "Europe tells Britain to increase taxes" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/j53DrpceSf

Is this story

George Osborne’s flagship Help to Buy scheme must be reined in and council tax should be increased to stop house prices getting out of control, the European Commission has said.

In a dramatic intervention in UK Government policy, the commission called on the Chancellor to “deploy appropriate measures” because of rising house prices, particularly in London.

Mr Osborne should adjust the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme and increase council tax on expensive properties, the commission said.

The suggestion that Help to Buy is fuelling a potentially damaging property boom will anger ministers and comes as David Cameron prepares to reform Britain’s relationship with the European Union before holding an in-out referendum in 2017.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/10870950/George-Osborne-told-to-rein-in-Help-to-Buy-by-European-Commission.html

I think the Treasury will raise the two finger salute.

BobaFett

Richard_Tyndall said:

AveryLP said:

@Richard_Tyndall

Have you got drunk on bison weed (or grass) flavoured Vodka?

If not here is the link to purchase:

http://bit.ly/1hSwhQe

All I shall say is that it needs "an acquired taste"

I never knew that was what it was but I have drunk the vodka with the grass. Not my favourite. I preferred the pepper vodka.

It is actually fantastic mixed over ice with good apple juice. That may sound bizarre but I would urge both of you to give it a whirl...

corporeal

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just watched the latest episode of Game of Thrones.

Bloody hell, that has to be the most violent scene in TV history.

TSE, I haven't seen the GoT tv series yet, but for violence I'd suggest Spartacus would be up there with anything.

TheScreamingEagles

corporeal said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just watched the latest episode of Game of Thrones.

Bloody hell, that has to be the most violent scene in TV history.

TSE, I haven't seen the GoT tv series yet, but for violence I'd suggest Spartacus would be up there with anything.

As a fan of Spartacus, by Jupiter's cock, tonight's episode even outdid Spartacus.