'By Election Day next year, there will have been ~2,000 polls of vote intentions this parliament. Between 1943 and 2010, fewer than 3,500.' @drjennings
Blimey, is that right?
Probably daily YouGovs could be a fair proportion of those?
Yep 1200 of them apparently.
Good lord, as many as that! - what a waste of time, money and bandwidth..!
'By Election Day next year, there will have been ~2,000 polls of vote intentions this parliament. Between 1943 and 2010, fewer than 3,500.' @drjennings
Blimey, is that right?
Yes. It's more than one a day. A decade ago it was one a week. A decade before that, one a month...
There are several Polish restaurants in Leicester, but all seem aimed at the migrants. Mind you, with the number of Poles and Czechs working in pubs and hotels we must be eating a lot of Polish prepared food.
The food is awful? In multiculti Britain? With restaurants offering virtually every single cuisine on earth, especially in the big cities?
Truly one of the great achievements of multi-culturalism that, in that even those against it in general will recognise that improvement.
Have the more recent eastern Europeans bought any decent nosh with them ? I like the occasional pickled herring as much as the next person but can't I've never headed out for a "polish"
Hmm, interesting point. There's a couple of thousand of Poles in the town I live, but no Polish Restaurants as far as I'm aware, just some local Polish focused shops. Some tasty polish sausages and the like in the local supermarkets now, but then with the exception of the French* I think most places make decent sausages.
*I saw Fish Sausages and Tripe sausages when I was last there in the mid 2000s.
Speaking of polling I do wonder if part of our problem is having reduced politics to a statistical model. Politics feels a lot less about grand argument and far more about micro targeting soundbites to shift 2 voters here or 6 there. I do wonder if the broad narrative sweep gets lost in the details etc
I don't speak Italian. Can an helpful PBer translate?
The title of the blog article and its last line should be sufficient to give a gist of what is being said.
Here is the last line:
Occhio, Beppe, che il detto «dimmi con chi vai e ti dirò chi sei» è sempre valido.
Basically it is contrasting UKIP with other politicians who are presumably in 5 star - one is an ex-Communist. It is portraying UKIP in the worst light possible.
The last line: Watch out Beppe! the saying "Tell me who you hang around with and I will tell you who you are" is always true
4,376,635 people voted for UKIP in Euro election, so 86% of that would give about 3.76 million votes. With a general election turnout, that would be about 12.5%.
The political class need more polls nowadays because they are so disconnected.
I think it's the reverse they are disconnected because the rely on too many polls.
actually you might have a point in that it could make it worse - being disconnected and then having a lot of data which they then have to guess what it means
On topic: It's interesting to look at the UKIP supporters' top issues from the point of view of either Labour's or the Conservatives' hopes of luring them back. Neither can draw much encouragement from this poll.
The bad news for Ed is that Kippers don't seem particularly fussed about his pet issues (low pay, housing, NHS).
They are, curiously, less concerned than your average Joe about unemployment - is that a statistical quirk? It seems counter-intuitive, given the UKIP campaign emphasis on foreigners stealing your jobs.
The bad news for Dave is that Race relations/Immigration, where the Kippers are way more fired up than your average Joe, is not ground on which he'd ideally like to make the pitch for them to return from the dark side. He'd much rather talk about the economy, but they are less worried about that than the average voter. He does have one encouraging issue here: the EU, where the Tories will be the only party offering change and a referendum. But that is quite far down on even the Kippish list of priorities.
When asked where I'm from these days I always say England, not Britain. It's preparation for a Scottish Yes. If No wins I'll go back to being British. Though really English is what I am. And my home is London NW5, though I have not lived there specifically since the 1980s. N19 always felt slightly wrong. Here in the Midlands I am definitely from somewhere else.
On topic: It's interesting to look at the UKIP supporters' top issues from the point of view of either Labour's or the Conservatives' hopes of luring them back. Neither can draw much encouragement from this poll.
The bad news for Ed is that Kippers don't seem particularly fussed about his pet issues (low pay, housing, NHS).
They are, curiously, less concerned than your average Joe about unemployment - is that a statistical quirk? It seems counter-intuitive, given the UKIP campaign emphasis on foreigners stealing your jobs.
The bad news for Dave is that Race relations/Immigration, where the Kippers are way more fired up than your average Joe, is not ground on which he'd ideally like to make the pitch for them to return from the dark side. He'd much rather talk about the economy, but they are less worried about that than the average voter. He does have one encouraging issue here: the EU, where the Tories will be the only party offering change and a referendum. But that is quite far down on even the Kippish list of priorities.
Half of immigration is from outside the EU. The Tories need to just take a very tough line on unskilled immigration here. If the Lib Dems won't let them in Coalition, they should say what they'd like to do on it.
The political class need more polls nowadays because they are so disconnected.
I think it's the reverse they are disconnected because the rely on too many polls.
uni -> spad -> politics
how could they possibly be connected?
you need to spend a lot of time with a lot of different people to be connected with how different people think
The activists they will see on a regular basis will be very diverse, the Councillors, the people who turn up at their surgeries. I think the route you describe is far from ideal but also less common than you imagine but most MPs aren't as thoroughly disconnected as you'd believe. Also I'm not entirely certain the term itself doesn't in some senses perpetuate an artificial divide.
I know I should having been around this site for years but people quoting odds and changes still means absolutely nothing to me. I wish I could get my head around it.
You really don't feel anywhere is your "homeland"? It doesn't have to be London (few people would call London a homeland), it could be England, Britain, the British Isles. But none of those tick your box? Really?
I think that is sad, and also unusual.
If called upon I would say London is my city, Britain is my homeland, Europe is my civilisation, Cornish is my ethnicity. I am very sure I will end my days in the British Isles, but not, inshallah, without lots of winter holidays in Bangkok and summer jaunts to Tuscany, Menton and the Tyrol.
I still live in the UK, although I spend a lot of time in the US. In fact, some of the nicer small towns in the Midwest seem to remind me more of the England I grew up in than England these days. That friendly community feel has been lost to a mentality where everyone sticks to themselves a lot more.
The food is awful? In multiculti Britain? With restaurants offering virtually every single cuisine on earth, especially in the big cities?
Truly one of the great achievements of multi-culturalism that, in that even those against it in general will recognise that improvement.
Have the more recent eastern Europeans bought any decent nosh with them ? I like the occasional pickled herring as much as the next person but can't I've never headed out for a "polish"
There's a polish pub in my town. Their menu doesn't look very exotic.
Pretty devastating for all three main parties, if true. The Lib Dems will be wiped out, Labour will be reduced to about 30-33, Tories will be lucky to get 28. No party will have a mandate for government. Even if Miliband has a majority of seats if he only has about 30% of the popular vote he will be unable to make difficult decisions and his government will crumble within months, and possibly split wide open.
And is it any surprise when you read news like this?
England's population is expected to increase by 4m, in the next ten years, i.e. about 8%, mainly thanks to immigration, esp from the EU.
This is not that far off the American decadal average net migration of 10-15% during its enormous immigration boom in the 19th century. But in that case, that was people immigrating into an essentially empty continent, settlers wanted by a brand new country with boundless land and resources.
England is an ancient country with a dense and historic population, yet it is enduring something not unlike the great population shift to the New World. This is utterly unsustainable, and in the end people will vote Fascist, Communist or Anarcho-Syndicalist, in a desperate attempt to stop it happening.
UKIPs aim should be to get Lab & Tory % down to v low 30s. Then they will have to listen
Pretty devastating for all three main parties, if true. The Lib Dems will be wiped out, Labour will be reduced to about 30-33, Tories will be lucky to get 28. No party will have a mandate for government. Even if Miliband has a majority of seats if he only has about 30% of the popular vote he will be unable to make difficult decisions and his government will crumble within months, and possibly split wide open.
And is it any surprise when you read news like this?
England's population is expected to increase by 4m, in the next ten years, i.e. about 8%, mainly thanks to immigration, esp from the EU.
This is not that far off the American decadal average net migration of 10-15% during its enormous immigration boom in the 19th century. But in that case, that was people immigrating into an essentially empty continent, settlers wanted by a brand new country with boundless land and resources.
England is an ancient country with a dense and historic population, yet it is enduring something not unlike the great population shift to the New World. This is utterly unsustainable, and in the end people will vote Fascist, Communist or Anarcho-Syndicalist, in a desperate attempt to stop it happening.
China, population growth rate 2014: 0.44% UK, population growth rate 2014: 0.54%
The food is awful? In multiculti Britain? With restaurants offering virtually every single cuisine on earth, especially in the big cities?
Truly one of the great achievements of multi-culturalism that, in that even those against it in general will recognise that improvement.
Have the more recent eastern Europeans bought any decent nosh with them ? I like the occasional pickled herring as much as the next person but can't I've never headed out for a "polish"
There's a polish pub in my town. Their menu doesn't look very exotic.
I always like to be reminded of the awesome power of nature especially as these things can pump more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere in a few hours than we could put up in a couple of decades.
Pretty devastating for all three main parties, if true. The Lib Dems will be wiped out, Labour will be reduced to about 30-33, Tories will be lucky to get 28. No party will have a mandate for government. Even if Miliband has a majority of seats if he only has about 30% of the popular vote he will be unable to make difficult decisions and his government will crumble within months, and possibly split wide open.
And is it any surprise when you read news like this?
England's population is expected to increase by 4m, in the next ten years, i.e. about 8%, mainly thanks to immigration, esp from the EU.
This is not that far off the American decadal average net migration of 10-15% during its enormous immigration boom in the 19th century. But in that case, that was people immigrating into an essentially empty continent, settlers wanted by a brand new country with boundless land and resources.
England is an ancient country with a dense and historic population, yet it is enduring something not unlike the great population shift to the New World. This is utterly unsustainable, and in the end people will vote Fascist, Communist or Anarcho-Syndicalist, in a desperate attempt to stop it happening.
UKIPs aim should be to get Lab & Tory % down to v low 30s. Then they will have to listen
I think you should be careful what you wish for. Whilst Belgium can get away with political chaos because it tiny, the trade and economic implications of political gridlock and ungovernability here would be disastrous.
The political class need more polls nowadays because they are so disconnected.
I think it's the reverse they are disconnected because the rely on too many polls.
uni -> spad -> politics
how could they possibly be connected?
you need to spend a lot of time with a lot of different people to be connected with how different people think
The activists they will see on a regular basis will be very diverse, the Councillors, the people who turn up at their surgeries. I think the route you describe is far from ideal but also less common than you imagine but most MPs aren't as thoroughly disconnected as you'd believe. Also I'm not entirely certain the term itself doesn't in some senses perpetuate an artificial divide.
The uni - SpAd - MP route may be less common for MPs than is commonly thought but those MPs who have taken it have an uncanny ability to be fast-tracked to the front bench and beyond.
'We will change the rules on child benefit - so that it's no longer paid to children outside of this country. '
Surely Sadiq Khan knows that the EU won't allow that or maybe he's just pretending to be tough.
Labor, Tories and LD just keep trying to promise what they are unable to deliver.
Working class people want to go to work and earn a living. They dont want tax credits, and they dont want immigrants learning English. They want to work without being undercut, feel like they have earned a days pay, and pay the bills. The only way to do this is for the UK to leave the EU.
If free movement of trade is a good thing that cant be compromised, then Lab and Cons should tell the working class British to wear it.
Pretty devastating for all three main parties, if true. The Lib Dems will be wiped out, Labour will be reduced to about 30-33, Tories will be lucky to get 28. No party will have a mandate for government. Even if Miliband has a majority of seats if he only has about 30% of the popular vote he will be unable to make difficult decisions and his government will crumble within months, and possibly split wide open.
And is it any surprise when you read news like this?
England's population is expected to increase by 4m, in the next ten years, i.e. about 8%, mainly thanks to immigration, esp from the EU.
This is not that far off the American decadal average net migration of 10-15% during its enormous immigration boom in the 19th century. But in that case, that was people immigrating into an essentially empty continent, settlers wanted by a brand new country with boundless land and resources.
England is an ancient country with a dense and historic population, yet it is enduring something not unlike the great population shift to the New World. This is utterly unsustainable, and in the end people will vote Fascist, Communist or Anarcho-Syndicalist, in a desperate attempt to stop it happening.
"England's population is expected to increase by 4m, in the next ten years, i.e. about 8%, mainly thanks to immigration, esp from the EU."
And a much higher percentage among the 18-30 child bearing age group which means what the political class are doing is a stealth genocide.
The political class need more polls nowadays because they are so disconnected.
I think it's the reverse they are disconnected because the rely on too many polls.
uni -> spad -> politics
how could they possibly be connected?
you need to spend a lot of time with a lot of different people to be connected with how different people think
The activists they will see on a regular basis will be very diverse, the Councillors, the people who turn up at their surgeries. I think the route you describe is far from ideal but also less common than you imagine but most MPs aren't as thoroughly disconnected as you'd believe. Also I'm not entirely certain the term itself doesn't in some senses perpetuate an artificial divide.
The uni - SpAd - MP route may be less common for MPs than is commonly thought but those MPs who have taken it have an uncanny ability to be fast-tracked to the front bench and beyond.
Professionals are often better at gaming the system than amateurs.
The bad news for Dave is that Race relations/Immigration, where the Kippers are way more fired up than your average Joe, is not ground on which he'd ideally like to make the pitch for them to return from the dark side. He'd much rather talk about the economy, but they are less worried about that than the average voter. He does have one encouraging issue here: the EU, where the Tories will be the only party offering change and a referendum. But that is quite far down on even the Kippish list of priorities.
That may be true but what Dave will try to do is scare them by saying Lab = Tax Bombshell.
People may be relaxed about the economy but he will hope that if they think Lab is going to mean serious tax rises then they'll get frightened and return back to Con.
And Lab has helped Dave here by opposing every spending cut.
So Dave will go with a simple message - Lab will spend more and more spending will = Higher taxes.
Plus he'll add that much of the spending will be wasted.
Pretty devastating for all three main parties, if true. The Lib Dems will be wiped out, Labour will be reduced to about 30-33, Tories will be lucky to get 28. No party will have a mandate for government. Even if Miliband has a majority of seats if he only has about 30% of the popular vote he will be unable to make difficult decisions and his government will crumble within months, and possibly split wide open.
And is it any surprise when you read news like this?
England's population is expected to increase by 4m, in the next ten years, i.e. about 8%, mainly thanks to immigration, esp from the EU.
This is not that far off the American decadal average net migration of 10-15% during its enormous immigration boom in the 19th century. But in that case, that was people immigrating into an essentially empty continent, settlers wanted by a brand new country with boundless land and resources.
England is an ancient country with a dense and historic population, yet it is enduring something not unlike the great population shift to the New World. This is utterly unsustainable, and in the end people will vote Fascist, Communist or Anarcho-Syndicalist, in a desperate attempt to stop it happening.
UKIPs aim should be to get Lab & Tory % down to v low 30s. Then they will have to listen
I think you should be careful what you wish for. Whilst Belgium can get away with political chaos because it tiny, the trade and economic implications of political gridlock and ungovernability here would be disastrous.
That of itself would be an earthquake. If they are also representative of those who didn't vote at the Euros but would at a GE, then there's a tsunami associated with it as well.
Issues through kippers eyes... many will be retired and on nice pensions. They seem less concerned about the economy because they don't have to earn a living, but have the time to worry about how the country has been changed by immigration.
Issues through kippers eyes... many will be retired and on nice pensions. They seem less concerned about the economy because they don't have to earn a living, but have the time to worry about how the country has been changed by immigration.
Pretty devastating for all three main parties, if true. The Lib Dems will be wiped out, Labour will be reduced to about 30-33, Tories will be lucky to get 28. No party will have a mandate for government. Even if Miliband has a majority of seats if he only has about 30% of the popular vote he will be unable to make difficult decisions and his government will crumble within months, and possibly split wide open.
And is it any surprise when you read news like this?
England's population is expected to increase by 4m, in the next ten years, i.e. about 8%, mainly thanks to immigration, esp from the EU.
This is not that far off the American decadal average net migration of 10-15% during its enormous immigration boom in the 19th century. But in that case, that was people immigrating into an essentially empty continent, settlers wanted by a brand new country with boundless land and resources.
England is an ancient country with a dense and historic population, yet it is enduring something not unlike the great population shift to the New World. This is utterly unsustainable, and in the end people will vote Fascist, Communist or Anarcho-Syndicalist, in a desperate attempt to stop it happening.
"England's population is expected to increase by 4m, in the next ten years, i.e. about 8%, mainly thanks to immigration, esp from the EU."
And a much higher percentage among the 18-30 child bearing age group which means what the political class are doing is a stealth genocide.
"what the political class are doing is a stealth genocide". Blame not the class as a whole but blame Labour who over 13 years opened the gates and made it almost impossible to close them.
That of itself would be an earthquake. If they are also representative of those who didn't vote at the Euros but would at a GE, then there's a tsunami associated with it as well.
Of course people saying they are likely to do something (and saying it 12 months in advance) does not mean they will actually do it.
Dave will hope that with much less UKIP media coverage and UKIP not in the debates that people will start to forget about them and that there will be a subliminal message that if the media aren't talking about them then they don't have a chance.
Plus he'll go on the Tax Bombshell.
On the subject of tax many UKIP supporters are elderly so will be quite focussed on Inheritance Tax - so I wouldn't be at all surprised if Dave goes for a big increase in the IHT threshold in the Con manifesto. He won't risk going to £1m as that would be too audacious in the current climate - but I think he may go for £500k - ie a £175k increase - enough for a substantial number of retired homeowners to take serious notice.
The bad news for Dave is that Race relations/Immigration, where the Kippers are way more fired up than your average Joe, is not ground on which he'd ideally like to make the pitch for them to return from the dark side.
'but I think he may go for £500k - ie a £175k increase - enough for a substantial number of retired homeowners to take serious notice.'
Surely it would be easier just to exempt the main residence from IHT.
I think that's unlikely because it would cost too much - I imagine the vast majority of IHT relates to main residences.
I think it would be more likely he would raise the threshold to £1m than completely exempt main residences.
Plus there is an unfairness point re elderly people selling main residence quite close to death when moving into a nursing home.
But the details don't matter too much - all Dave will care about is making a very simple message - if you are a home owner with net assets over £325k then a Con Govt will save you very serious money.
Enough money to have a very good chance of swinging your vote if you were planning on voting UKIP.
FPT. @HurstLlama "It will come out, eventually, without the verbatim of some letters and conversations, but not without anything really interesting. I should be very surprised if it turns out to be yet another whitewash.
That said, I am disgusted that one of the actors has been allowed to be one of the referees. Sir Jeremy Heywood was Blair's principle private secretary at the crucial time. Yes, the bloke who was charged with looking into the Mitchell fiasco but but didn't bother to look at the video's. The man is clearly incompetent or devious and, as Blair's secretary at the time, should have had no role in the Chilcott Enquiry."
Crick was in Newark yesterday and visited the UKIP base there along those of the Conservatives and Labour. Glad to see Farage is finally taking the time to pop along to Newark this week, his lack of interest in this by election campaign so far almost makes you think he really doesn't rate Helmer's chances. That, or Farage is not that keen on the idea of helping Helmer achieve what he himself has failed to do on a few occasions now, and that is to actually win a Westminster Parliamentary seat.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1m It's a long time since I've seen Tories so keen to win a by-election. Amazingly, Ukip don't seem that bothered; Lab + Lib Dems even more so ---------------------------------------- He's probably not been near the UKIP HQ fearing he might be hit over the head again; this time with a hammer.
Incidentally I've learned that Nigel Farage will be in Newark tomorrow, followed by Diane James on Sunday and Patrick O'Flynn on Monday. ------- I always seem to get caught by these sudden changes in the thread without a warning.
Crick was in Newark yesterday and visited the UKIP base there along those of the Conservatives and Labour. Glad to see Farage is finally taking the time to pop along to Newark this week, his lack of interest in this by election campaign so far almost makes you think he really doesn't rate Helmer's chances. That, or Farage is not that keen on the idea of helping Helmer achieve what he himself has failed to do on a few occasions now, and that is to actually win a Westminster Parliamentary seat.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1m It's a long time since I've seen Tories so keen to win a by-election. Amazingly, Ukip don't seem that bothered; Lab + Lib Dems even more so ---------------------------------------- He's probably not been near the UKIP HQ fearing he might be hit over the head again; this time with a hammer.
Incidentally I've learned that Nigel Farage will be in Newark tomorrow, followed by Diane James on Sunday and Patrick O'Flynn on Monday. ------- I always seem to get caught by these sudden changes in the thread without a warning.
Taking a few days off after the EU Parliament campaign is hardly an attempt to sabotage Mr Helmer's campaign.
As OGH tweeted today, the media don't seem to understand the concept of margin of error with opinion polls. The Newark by-election poll margin of error means UKIP could have been very close to being ahead but they just report the main figures and say Tories are heading for victory.
Margin of error with sample of 606 = 3.94% with 95% confidence level:
The Survation Newark poll includes a lot of people who did not vote in the EU Parliament election. Strip them out, and the gap between UKIP and the Conservatives gets smaller.
The Survation Newark poll includes a lot of people who did not vote in the EU Parliament election. Strip them out, and the gap between UKIP and the Conservatives gets smaller.
What the 2014 set of elections show is not a desire to end maternity leave, or legalise handguns, or bum Romanians from here back to Transylvania, it shows a willingness and keenness for someone who talks like us, and listens, and understands, and likes a fag and a pint. The three main streamers (let's say two and forget the dead duck) have one chance at this - one chance to convincingly show they get it, and act on it. To fail to do this right now will be a failure of this nation, and it won't be UKIP that benefits, it will be the insurgents a, on both sides, and will will descend into Hell. Forget Tory versus Labour, forget Austerity versus stimulus, it's the very fabric that is at stake. It's not about UKIP, it's about whether we manoeuvre away from catastrophe whilst we have the ability to do so.
As for ex pats. Pffffft. You come from the nation that crafted the world as it is. The lone wolf that saved the world in the summer of 1941, the foundation of democracy, liberty and justice. You can run, but you'll never hide. This country will call you home, always, and wherever you are and wherever you settle, those around you will know you are a Brit, and be just that little bit envious.
As OGH tweeted today, the media don't seem to understand the concept of margin of error with opinion polls. The Newark by-election poll margin of error means UKIP could have been very close to being ahead but they just report the main figures and say Tories are heading for victory.
Margin of error with sample of 606 = 3.94% with 95% confidence level:
So UKIP could have been as high as 31.94% and Tories as low as 32.06%.
So wouldnt the probability that both true values are on the far ends of the margin of error be far lower than just one of them being either at the upper or lower bound. They are dependant variables, after all.
Crick was in Newark yesterday and visited the UKIP base there along those of the Conservatives and Labour. Glad to see Farage is finally taking the time to pop along to Newark this week, his lack of interest in this by election campaign so far almost makes you think he really doesn't rate Helmer's chances. That, or Farage is not that keen on the idea of helping Helmer achieve what he himself has failed to do on a few occasions now, and that is to actually win a Westminster Parliamentary seat.
Cameron has already managed three visits to Newark despite the Euros campaign, and he is also running the country. Farage on the other hand, just has to manage a small grouping of UKIP MEP's in the EU Parliament. And he still hasn't even declared which seat if any he will run in at the next GE, he is hardly rushed off his feet right now.
Crick was in Newark yesterday and visited the UKIP base there along those of the Conservatives and Labour. Glad to see Farage is finally taking the time to pop along to Newark this week, his lack of interest in this by election campaign so far almost makes you think he really doesn't rate Helmer's chances. That, or Farage is not that keen on the idea of helping Helmer achieve what he himself has failed to do on a few occasions now, and that is to actually win a Westminster Parliamentary seat.
As OGH tweeted today, the media don't seem to understand the concept of margin of error with opinion polls. The Newark by-election poll margin of error means UKIP could have been very close to being ahead but they just report the main figures and say Tories are heading for victory.
Margin of error with sample of 606 = 3.94% with 95% confidence level:
So UKIP could have been as high as 31.94% and Tories as low as 32.06%.
In fairness, quoting MOE to 2 decimal places is also spurious accuracy! Particularly since it isn't a random sample (in the technical sense) so the standard formula doesn't apply. There are also other types of error in the polling than sampling error alone, and I would be most interested to know what the experts think about their likely order of magnitude. I would guess at them being comparable to the sampling error, slightly smaller perhaps?
As OGH tweeted today, the media don't seem to understand the concept of margin of error with opinion polls. The Newark by-election poll margin of error means UKIP could have been very close to being ahead but they just report the main figures and say Tories are heading for victory.
Margin of error with sample of 606 = 3.94% with 95% confidence level:
Crick was in Newark yesterday and visited the UKIP base there along those of the Conservatives and Labour. Glad to see Farage is finally taking the time to pop along to Newark this week, his lack of interest in this by election campaign so far almost makes you think he really doesn't rate Helmer's chances. That, or Farage is not that keen on the idea of helping Helmer achieve what he himself has failed to do on a few occasions now, and that is to actually win a Westminster Parliamentary seat.
Possibly he is expecting Helmer to come out with some more entertaining phraseology about Robertson's Marmalade Emblems, the role of ladies or somesuch and aims to be at the other end of the country when he does so? The Arsene Wenger approach- "No, I didn't see the incident..."
If God really wanted to do something good, he really should send down some messages on what he thinks of modern society, like the internet, or gay rights, or the role of women. Relying on some words from his son 2000 years when they didn't even have working toilets isn't really great.
He really has been slacking. He needs to be on twitter or something.
As I noted in my previous post, Cameron isn't taking a day off after the Euros campaign, or in his day job as PM when it comes to this by-election. I definitely think the lack of a high profile Farage presence in the Newark campaign in recent weeks has been decidedly odd, especially on the back of the intense media scrutiny and publicity the party has been getting which might have benefited both the Helmer and the party there. In fact, after that Daily Mail story about his former researcher, even Helmer went very quiet for while.
But maybe Helmer is of the opinion that 'he who dares wins', and that could indicate that he hopes it might end up meaning he also carries a bit more weight within UKIP than Farage if he pulls off a win in Newark? Especially when he also did what Farage has failed to do in numerous by-elections before Newark in this Parliament, and that is throw his considerable weight and ego into the ring of a local contest. And so, just maybe, Farage isn't that keen on Helmer actually beating him to Westminster as an MP. I also imagine the personal workload of a Westminster constituency MP is far more arduous than that of a UKIP MEP, so another reason why Farage might not be that keen on leaving the EU Parliament to join Westminster.
Crick was in Newark yesterday and visited the UKIP base there along those of the Conservatives and Labour. Glad to see Farage is finally taking the time to pop along to Newark this week, his lack of interest in this by election campaign so far almost makes you think he really doesn't rate Helmer's chances. That, or Farage is not that keen on the idea of helping Helmer achieve what he himself has failed to do on a few occasions now, and that is to actually win a Westminster Parliamentary seat.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1m It's a long time since I've seen Tories so keen to win a by-election. Amazingly, Ukip don't seem that bothered; Lab + Lib Dems even more so ---------------------------------------- He's probably not been near the UKIP HQ fearing he might be hit over the head again; this time with a hammer.
Incidentally I've learned that Nigel Farage will be in Newark tomorrow, followed by Diane James on Sunday and Patrick O'Flynn on Monday. ------- I always seem to get caught by these sudden changes in the thread without a warning.
Taking a few days off after the EU Parliament campaign is hardly an attempt to sabotage Mr Helmer's campaign.
But maybe Helmer is of the opinion that 'he who dares wins', and that could indicate that he hopes it might end up meaning he also carries a bit more weight within UKIP than Farage if he pulls off a win in Newark? Especially when he also did what Farage has failed to do in numerous by-elections before Newark in this Parliament, and that is throw his considerable weight and ego into the ring of a local contest. And so, just maybe, Farage isn't that keen on Helmer actually beating him to Westminster as an MP. I also imagine the personal workload of a Westminster constituency MP is far more arduous than that of a UKIP MEP, so another reason why Farage might not be that keen on leaving the EU Parliament to join Westminster.
Crick was in Newark yesterday and visited the UKIP base there along those of the Conservatives and Labour. Glad to see Farage is finally taking the time to pop along to Newark this week, his lack of interest in this by election campaign so far almost makes you think he really doesn't rate Helmer's chances. That, or Farage is not that keen on the idea of helping Helmer achieve what he himself has failed to do on a few occasions now, and that is to actually win a Westminster Parliamentary seat.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1m It's a long time since I've seen Tories so keen to win a by-election. Amazingly, Ukip don't seem that bothered; Lab + Lib Dems even more so ---------------------------------------- He's probably not been near the UKIP HQ fearing he might be hit over the head again; this time with a hammer.
Incidentally I've learned that Nigel Farage will be in Newark tomorrow, followed by Diane James on Sunday and Patrick O'Flynn on Monday. ------- I always seem to get caught by these sudden changes in the thread without a warning.
Taking a few days off after the EU Parliament campaign is hardly an attempt to sabotage Mr Helmer's campaign.
You're over-thinking this. Mr Farage took a few days off after the EU election campaign. That's all.
If Mr Helmer becomes UKIP's first MP, everyone will be thrilled. Including Mr Farage.
Cameron has already managed three visits to Newark despite the Euros campaign, and he is also running the country. Farage on the other hand, just has to manage a small grouping of UKIP MEP's in the EU Parliament. And he still hasn't even declared which seat if any he will run in at the next GE, he is hardly rushed off his feet right now.
Crick was in Newark yesterday and visited the UKIP base there along those of the Conservatives and Labour. Glad to see Farage is finally taking the time to pop along to Newark this week, his lack of interest in this by election campaign so far almost makes you think he really doesn't rate Helmer's chances. That, or Farage is not that keen on the idea of helping Helmer achieve what he himself has failed to do on a few occasions now, and that is to actually win a Westminster Parliamentary seat.
I think he'd be knackered after the EU campaign.
I thought Newark was a safe Tory seat? Why would Cameron need to turn up there three times and have all his ministers going up there to? I live in a safe Tory seat with an equivalent majority and Cameron has never been here. Seems like someone has got them running around like headless chickens. I wonder who that could be?
"You're over-thinking this. Mr Farage took a few days off after the EU election campaign. That's all.
If Mr Helmer becomes UKIP's first MP, everyone will be thrilled. Including Mr Farage."
@anotherDave As a long time follower of UKIP internal politics, I can tell you that simple isn't true. And as a UKIP spinner on this site, you know that that too. Helmer has made his move within the UKIP leadership, and he is hoping that Newark will finally give him his big break in UK politics long denied as a Tory MEP in Europe. If there is one big long term problem within UKIP that often leads to internal implosions, its the fact that there simple isn't enough room for both Farage and the egos of the various carpet baggers who turn up hoping to find a short cut to political success within UKIP. If Farage was that passionate about gaining this all important first UKIP win in a Westminster seat, he would have been virtually living in the local hostelries of Newark with a full media entourage in hot pursuit over recent weeks.
Its been twenty five years since a Conservative Government has managed to hold a seat in a Westminster by-election, so to do so in Newark less than a year before the next GE would be a massive morale booster for the Conservative party. It would also act as a pretty good firewall against a media narrative that suggested UKIP had now a momentum that would continue to be a threat right up until next GE following their recent Euros success. The fact that UKIP has left it so late to finally deploy their big guns to this contest suggests a token effort rather than a serious attempt to finally win that first historic Westminster seat. And that can only mean that Farage is not that concerned to see Helmer fail here, and both men know it.
Cameron has already managed three visits to Newark despite the Euros campaign, and he is also running the country. Farage on the other hand, just has to manage a small grouping of UKIP MEP's in the EU Parliament. And he still hasn't even declared which seat if any he will run in at the next GE, he is hardly rushed off his feet right now.
Crick was in Newark yesterday and visited the UKIP base there along those of the Conservatives and Labour. Glad to see Farage is finally taking the time to pop along to Newark this week, his lack of interest in this by election campaign so far almost makes you think he really doesn't rate Helmer's chances. That, or Farage is not that keen on the idea of helping Helmer achieve what he himself has failed to do on a few occasions now, and that is to actually win a Westminster Parliamentary seat.
I think he'd be knackered after the EU campaign.
I thought Newark was a safe Tory seat? Why would Cameron need to turn up there three times and have all his ministers going up there to? I live in a safe Tory seat with an equivalent majority and Cameron has never been here. Seems like someone has got them running around like headless chickens. I wonder who that could be?
Surely the point is that it's very likely this is UKIP's last shot at an MP this Parliament.
By-elections can be delayed for 6 months so a seat must become vacant by early November otherwise the seat will just remain vacant up to the GE.
Of course a seat could become vacant any time but without any Court cases underway or imminent and no serious Parliamentary investigations for misconduct underway (and nothing new will happen over the summer) then the only realistic chance is a death before early November.
Of course there could be a death any time but the chances aren't high of one in the next 5 months - and of course it needs to happen in a seat which has a chance of being competitive.
I'm sure Farage is tired after the Euros campaign and both needs and deserves a break. But surely with the prize on offer he should have put absolutely everything into the 10 days between the Euros and Newark - he could have literally spent the entire 10 days in Newark.
He could then take as much time off as he wants over the following couple of months - subject maybe to just the odd limited important appearance here and there.
Surely the point is that it's very likely this is UKIP's last shot at an MP this Parliament.
By-elections can be delayed for 6 months so a seat must become vacant by early November otherwise the seat will just remain vacant up to the GE.
Of course a seat could become vacant any time but without any Court cases underway or imminent and no serious Parliamentary investigations for misconduct underway (and nothing new will happen over the summer) then the only realistic chance is a death before early November.
Of course there could be a death any time but the chances aren't high of one in the next 5 months - and of course it needs to happen in a seat which has a chance of being competitive.
I'm sure Farage is tired after the Euros campaign and both needs and deserves a break. But surely with the prize on offer he should have put absolutely everything into the 10 days between the Euros and Newark - he could have literally spent the entire 10 days in Newark.
He could then take as much time off as he wants over the following couple of months - subject maybe to just the odd limited important appearance here and there.
You make a number of good points here - but it may be that Farage has reached the point, probably correctly, that if UKIP is ever going to be a real force in the land it really does need to be seen as more than a one man band. In Roger Helmer he has one of the party's most senior and experienced lieutenants contesting Newark and he, Farage, should be able to rely on him to do most of the heavy lifting.
Its been twenty five years since a Conservative Government has managed to hold a seat in a Westminster by-election, so to do so in Newark less than a year before the next GE would be a massive morale booster for the Conservative party. It would also act as a pretty good firewall against a media narrative that suggested UKIP had now a momentum that would continue to be a threat right up until next GE following their recent Euros success. The fact that UKIP has left it so late to finally deploy their big guns to this contest suggests a token effort rather than a serious attempt to finally win that first historic Westminster seat. And that can only mean that Farage is not that concerned to see Helmer fail here, and both men know it.
Cameron has already managed three visits to Newark despite the Euros campaign, and he is also running the country. Farage on the other hand, just has to manage a small grouping of UKIP MEP's in the EU Parliament. And he still hasn't even declared which seat if any he will run in at the next GE, he is hardly rushed off his feet right now.
Crick was in Newark yesterday and visited the UKIP base there along those of the Conservatives and Labour. Glad to see Farage is finally taking the time to pop along to Newark this week, his lack of interest in this by election campaign so far almost makes you think he really doesn't rate Helmer's chances. That, or Farage is not that keen on the idea of helping Helmer achieve what he himself has failed to do on a few occasions now, and that is to actually win a Westminster Parliamentary seat.
I think he'd be knackered after the EU campaign.
I thought Newark was a safe Tory seat? Why would Cameron need to turn up there three times and have all his ministers going up there to? I live in a safe Tory seat with an equivalent majority and Cameron has never been here. Seems like someone has got them running around like headless chickens. I wonder who that could be?
Well given they were out of government for 13 of those years and this is only the second defence of a seat since they were returned to power and their first safe seat defence that's not an impressive statistic. That by all accounts they feel it necessary to throw the kitchen sink at what should be a simple defence at a time when their supposed prospects are improving suggests an insecurity way beyond the inconvenience of some 25 year old statistic.
Of course as anyone who plays sports knows it is unwise to expend all your energy in the first half otherwise they might find themselves a spent force as the contest comes to a climax. Its far smarter and better to pace oneself and strike when the opponents are worn out. .
You make a number of good points here - but it may be that Farage has reached the point, probably correctly, that if UKIP is ever going to be a real force in the land it really does need to be seen as more than a one man band. In Roger Helmer he has one of the party's most senior and experienced lieutenants contesting Newark and he, Farage, should be able to rely on him to do most of the heavy lifting.
Indeed and in these contests when a town becomes swamped with party activists over an extended period how much of the effort is actually effective and how much is wasted / forgotten? If I recall in Eastleigh UKIP were by far the most effective campaigners in the last week gaining the momentum and had it not been for them being unprepared for the postal vote they would have won. I assume that they were better prepared for the postal vote this time and are now bringing Farage and other major players in to influence the on the day voters over the last few days. Clearly as the Tories came third in Eastleigh they didn't finish anywhere as near effectively. Whether they have learned their lessons will be seen in due course......
That looks sensible. The problem with seats is that the airlines can't decide whether people are going to be sitting up or lying down. They should do fully sitting up on short flights, and fully lying down, capsule hotel style, on long ones.
Even better, make the long-haul capsules detachable, so you can get one delivered to your door, get in it, sedate yourself and get yourself shipped directly to your destination. That way they can save space and money by getting rid of the corridors and stewardesses and things as well.
Comments
The last line: Watch out Beppe! the saying "Tell me who you hang around with and I will tell you who you are" is always true
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10866335/Ukip-vote-in-European-elections-no-flash-in-pan-according-to-new-poll.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10866335/Ukip-vote-in-European-elections-no-flash-in-pan-according-to-new-poll.html
how could they possibly be connected?
you need to spend a lot of time with a lot of different people to be connected with how different people think
The bad news for Ed is that Kippers don't seem particularly fussed about his pet issues (low pay, housing, NHS).
They are, curiously, less concerned than your average Joe about unemployment - is that a statistical quirk? It seems counter-intuitive, given the UKIP campaign emphasis on foreigners stealing your jobs.
The bad news for Dave is that Race relations/Immigration, where the Kippers are way more fired up than your average Joe, is not ground on which he'd ideally like to make the pitch for them to return from the dark side. He'd much rather talk about the economy, but they are less worried about that than the average voter. He does have one encouraging issue here: the EU, where the Tories will be the only party offering change and a referendum. But that is quite far down on even the Kippish list of priorities.
On that note, good night all.
40% chance = 6/4
36.5% = 7/4
33.33% = 2/1
28.5%=5/2
25%=3/1
20%=4/1
16.6%=5/1
14.2%=6/1
12.5%=7/1
11.1%=8/1
10%=9/1
etc
100- the % = the opposite eg
75% =1/3
80%=1/4
and so on
http://www.piwnicapub.co.uk/menu/
UK, population growth rate 2014: 0.54%
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/uk.html
'We will change the rules on child benefit - so that it's no longer paid to children outside of this country. '
Surely Sadiq Khan knows that the EU won't allow that or maybe he's just pretending to be tough.
Meson Don Felipe round the corner also great, as is the Laughing Gravy
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2644253/Incredible-moment-huge-volcano-erupts-Indonesia-sending-ash-spewing-thousands-feet-sky.html
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Newark-Poll-Sun-Tables.pdf
(11% switch to Con, 6% switch to Lab)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-2643647/Monarch-Airline-bans-reclining-seats-planes-90-passengers-vote-ditch-them.html
Working class people want to go to work and earn a living. They dont want tax credits, and they dont want immigrants learning English. They want to work without being undercut, feel like they have earned a days pay, and pay the bills. The only way to do this is for the UK to leave the EU.
If free movement of trade is a good thing that cant be compromised, then Lab and Cons should tell the working class British to wear it.
And a much higher percentage among the 18-30 child bearing age group which means what the political class are doing is a stealth genocide.
People may be relaxed about the economy but he will hope that if they think Lab is going to mean serious tax rises then they'll get frightened and return back to Con.
And Lab has helped Dave here by opposing every spending cut.
So Dave will go with a simple message - Lab will spend more and more spending will = Higher taxes.
Plus he'll add that much of the spending will be wasted.
People will deal with it, the world wont end
ought to be obvious
Dave will hope that with much less UKIP media coverage and UKIP not in the debates that people will start to forget about them and that there will be a subliminal message that if the media aren't talking about them then they don't have a chance.
Plus he'll go on the Tax Bombshell.
On the subject of tax many UKIP supporters are elderly so will be quite focussed on Inheritance Tax - so I wouldn't be at all surprised if Dave goes for a big increase in the IHT threshold in the Con manifesto. He won't risk going to £1m as that would be too audacious in the current climate - but I think he may go for £500k - ie a £175k increase - enough for a substantial number of retired homeowners to take serious notice.
'but I think he may go for £500k - ie a £175k increase - enough for a substantial number of retired homeowners to take serious notice.'
Surely it would be easier just to exempt the main residence from IHT.
Here's Jean-Claude Juncker in his own words:
"I am for secret, dark debates"
I think it would be more likely he would raise the threshold to £1m than completely exempt main residences.
Plus there is an unfairness point re elderly people selling main residence quite close to death when moving into a nursing home.
But the details don't matter too much - all Dave will care about is making a very simple message - if you are a home owner with net assets over £325k then a Con Govt will save you very serious money.
Enough money to have a very good chance of swinging your vote if you were planning on voting UKIP.
FPT. @HurstLlama "It will come out, eventually, without the verbatim of some letters and conversations, but not without anything really interesting. I should be very surprised if it turns out to be yet another whitewash.
That said, I am disgusted that one of the actors has been allowed to be one of the referees. Sir Jeremy Heywood was Blair's principle private secretary at the crucial time. Yes, the bloke who was charged with looking into the Mitchell fiasco but but didn't bother to look at the video's. The man is clearly incompetent or devious and, as Blair's secretary at the time, should have had no role in the Chilcott Enquiry."
Margin of error with sample of 606 = 3.94% with 95% confidence level:
http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html
So UKIP could have been as high as 31.94% and Tories as low as 32.06%.
UKIP 30%, Con 34%
(table 5, p.9)
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Newark-Poll-Sun-Tables.pdf
What the 2014 set of elections show is not a desire to end maternity leave, or legalise handguns, or bum Romanians from here back to Transylvania, it shows a willingness and keenness for someone who talks like us, and listens, and understands, and likes a fag and a pint.
The three main streamers (let's say two and forget the dead duck) have one chance at this - one chance to convincingly show they get it, and act on it.
To fail to do this right now will be a failure of this nation, and it won't be UKIP that benefits, it will be the insurgents a, on both sides, and will will descend into Hell.
Forget Tory versus Labour, forget Austerity versus stimulus, it's the very fabric that is at stake. It's not about UKIP, it's about whether we manoeuvre away from catastrophe whilst we have the ability to do so.
As for ex pats. Pffffft. You come from the nation that crafted the world as it is. The lone wolf that saved the world in the summer of 1941, the foundation of democracy, liberty and justice. You can run, but you'll never hide. This country will call you home, always, and wherever you are and wherever you settle, those around you will know you are a Brit, and be just that little bit envious.
Or, if the Tories lose, it gives the longest possible period of time for everyone to forget all about it.
https://twitter.com/TheTweetOfGod
But maybe Helmer is of the opinion that 'he who dares wins', and that could indicate that he hopes it might end up meaning he also carries a bit more weight within UKIP than Farage if he pulls off a win in Newark? Especially when he also did what Farage has failed to do in numerous by-elections before Newark in this Parliament, and that is throw his considerable weight and ego into the ring of a local contest. And so, just maybe, Farage isn't that keen on Helmer actually beating him to Westminster as an MP. I also imagine the personal workload of a Westminster constituency MP is far more arduous than that of a UKIP MEP, so another reason why Farage might not be that keen on leaving the EU Parliament to join Westminster.
If Mr Helmer becomes UKIP's first MP, everyone will be thrilled. Including Mr Farage.
If Mr Helmer becomes UKIP's first MP, everyone will be thrilled. Including Mr Farage."
@anotherDave As a long time follower of UKIP internal politics, I can tell you that simple isn't true. And as a UKIP spinner on this site, you know that that too. Helmer has made his move within the UKIP leadership, and he is hoping that Newark will finally give him his big break in UK politics long denied as a Tory MEP in Europe. If there is one big long term problem within UKIP that often leads to internal implosions, its the fact that there simple isn't enough room for both Farage and the egos of the various carpet baggers who turn up hoping to find a short cut to political success within UKIP. If Farage was that passionate about gaining this all important first UKIP win in a Westminster seat, he would have been virtually living in the local hostelries of Newark with a full media entourage in hot pursuit over recent weeks.
By-elections can be delayed for 6 months so a seat must become vacant by early November otherwise the seat will just remain vacant up to the GE.
Of course a seat could become vacant any time but without any Court cases underway or imminent and no serious Parliamentary investigations for misconduct underway (and nothing new will happen over the summer) then the only realistic chance is a death before early November.
Of course there could be a death any time but the chances aren't high of one in the next 5 months - and of course it needs to happen in a seat which has a chance of being competitive.
I'm sure Farage is tired after the Euros campaign and both needs and deserves a break. But surely with the prize on offer he should have put absolutely everything into the 10 days between the Euros and Newark - he could have literally spent the entire 10 days in Newark.
He could then take as much time off as he wants over the following couple of months - subject maybe to just the odd limited important appearance here and there.
In Roger Helmer he has one of the party's most senior and experienced lieutenants contesting Newark and he, Farage, should be able to rely on him to do most of the heavy lifting.
Of course as anyone who plays sports knows it is unwise to expend all your energy in the first half otherwise they might find themselves a spent force as the contest comes to a climax. Its far smarter and better to pace oneself and strike when the opponents are worn out. .
Even better, make the long-haul capsules detachable, so you can get one delivered to your door, get in it, sedate yourself and get yourself shipped directly to your destination. That way they can save space and money by getting rid of the corridors and stewardesses and things as well.