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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks like mentioning Ed’s name is no longer a drag for Labour

As part of their polling for The Times, YouGov asked “Imagine that at the next election the party leaders remained David Cameron for the Conservatives, Ed Miliband for Labour and Nick Clegg for the Liberal Democrats. How would you vote?”

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Paul_Mid_Beds

Some other party? The one that won the euro elections dosent even get a mention!

Oliver_PB

I remember the moderator posting the other day that it's against the rules to criticise the conduct or suggest bad faith by British Polling Council pollsters.

So, as per the rules, I won't do that.

JackW

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Some other party? The one that won the euro elections dosent even get a mention!

Seems fair .... as Ukip may or may not trouble the scorers at the General Election .... news on that from my ARSE at 9:00am ....

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Has Ed's name reached a sort of dead cats bounce phase?

JackW

Oliver_PB said:

I remember the moderator posting the other day that it's against the rules to criticise the conduct or suggest bad faith by British Polling Council pollsters.

So, as per the rules, I won't do that.

You don't have to break the rules just shout :

OUTLIER - also known as an ED - something weird giving rise to considerable mirth.

JackW

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Has Ed's name reached a sort of dead cats bounce phase?

Sadly for Labour no.

When the punters finally start to turn their attention to the general election in the new year this period will be seen for Labour as something of a sunlit uplands phase of the last year of this Parliament.

RochdalePioneers

Ed is feeling the Nick is Crap effect - the utter ineptitude of the LibDems (lost almost all MEPs, lose close to half your councillors, track the decapitation) makes Eds pig butty antics look professional

SimonStClare

Morning all.

As you say TSE, ‘it’s only one poll’ - Not a help, nor a hindrance, Ed will be happy with that.

Stuart_Dickson

Ho ho. I note that mentioning the three London leaders results in the SNP topping the Scottish sub-sample (196 respondents). A highly unusual event with YouGov, who have completely ballsed up their Scottish weightings, resulting in their last Scottish Euro poll calling it for SLAB. Whoops.

SNP 35%
Lab 33%
Con 19%
LD 3%
oth 9%

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/hhstanj4fd/YG-Archive-140527-Parties-and-elections.pdf

antifrank1

It would be quite a coup for Nigel Farage to pull Beppe Grillo.

To reassure isam, I don't think UKIP are stormtroopers. Stormtroopers have better dress sense. With connections to a country with a real far right party, I can tell the difference between fascists and the highly reactionary. I made that specific point earlier in the week.

Stuart_Dickson

Newark by-election.

LAB have drifted to 66/1 at Betfair. At that silly price you begin to get a bit tempted. Worth a fiver?

If UKIP take enough votes off CON, and LAB take enough votes off LIBDEM, could LAB not come through the middle? Must be worth at 66/1 punt?

Result - Newark 2010

Con 27,590
Lab 11,438
LD 10,246
UKIP 1,954

DavidL

Maybe, just maybe after 4 years it is finally penetrating the awareness of pretty much all voters that Ed is the leader of the Labour party. Not his brother, not someone competent but Ed. If so, then his leadership surely becomes priced in when people say they intend to vote Labour.

This does not mean he is not a drag or that Labour would not have more support with a competent leader. It just means he has finally achieved name awareness. Well done David.

OblitusSumMe

DavidL said:

Maybe, just maybe after 4 years it is finally penetrating the awareness of pretty much all voters that Ed is the leader of the Labour party. Not his brother, not someone competent but Ed. If so, then his leadership surely becomes priced in when people say they intend to vote Labour.

This does not mean he is not a drag or that Labour would not have more support with a competent leader. It just means he has finally achieved name awareness. Well done David.

But people still forget that Cameron is the leader of the Conservative Party, after nine years? So he hasn't achieved name recognition? How could someone be a drag on a ticket if people don't recognise their name?

Your reasoning makes no sense.

CarlottaVance

Oliver_PB said:

I remember the moderator posting the other day that it's against the rules to criticise the conduct or suggest bad faith by British Polling Council pollsters.

So, as per the rules, I won't do that.

Criticising methodology - for example, not prompting for the party that just came top of the Euros, is perfectly fine. Suggesting they did that because they are part of the LibLabConspiracy on the other hand...

CarlottaVance

On topic, if I was the Tories I would still talk about "Ed Miliband's Labour" between now and the GE, and if I was Labour I would leave Cameron's name out.....

antifrank1

"Nigel Farage’s party is relatively popular on England’s coasts; its target seats at next year’s general election are mostly southern and eastern littoral constituencies."

http://blogs.ft.com/off-message/2014/05/28/the-where-and-why-of-ukip/

That comment needs updating in the light of last week's results.

ToryJim

This is pretty much both barrels, twice, from the Mail. I know they dislike loathe the Lib Dems but this is just horrific. I'm not even sure if some of it isn't actionable, certainly close to the mark.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2642200/So-hates-Lib-Dems-QUENTIN-LETTS-toxic-treachery-hypocrites-sandals.html

DavidL

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Maybe, just maybe after 4 years it is finally penetrating the awareness of pretty much all voters that Ed is the leader of the Labour party. Not his brother, not someone competent but Ed. If so, then his leadership surely becomes priced in when people say they intend to vote Labour.

This does not mean he is not a drag or that Labour would not have more support with a competent leader. It just means he has finally achieved name awareness. Well done David.

But people still forget that Cameron is the leader of the Conservative Party, after nine years? So he hasn't achieved name recognition? How could someone be a drag on a ticket if people don't recognise their name?

Your reasoning makes no sense.

Well it wouldn't if Cameron was still a lift for the tories but the difference is in the MoE.

I think polling asking if X or Y was leader of a party would you be more or less likely to vote for them makes a kind of sense. I am really not at all sure that the question Yougov have asked here makes any kind of sense at all.

OblitusSumMe

in the past when Ed’s name was a drag, it was generally when Labour were polling in the 40s and had leads of around double digits so there maybe much less opportunity for drag available as Labour’s support has fallen since then.

This sounds plausible. Essentially the support of people that Labour has lost since they were polling in the 40s is the support of Conservative swing voters and new UKIP enthusiasts. These people could have been more likely to have been unimpressed by Ed Miliband - which would explain this change.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

O/T The rise of the global left
http://www.buzzfeed.com/bensmith/british-labour-leader-sees-rise-of-the-global-left

SimonStClare

@ToryJim - "Not since Julius Caesar clutched his bloodied toga to his chest in Rome's senate have there been such murderous moves from sandalled assassins."

It reads more like a script from ‘Up Pompeii’ - I’m sure Mr Dancer will be along later to correct Quentin Letts’ analogy..! ; )

MarqueeMark

OblitusSumMe said:

Essentially the support of people that Labour has lost since they were polling in the 40s is the support of Conservative swing voters and new UKIP enthusiasts. These people could have been more likely to have been unimpressed by Ed Miliband - which would explain this change.

So Labour down to the red-rosette-on-a-donkey brigade.

How that must put a spring in Ed's step....

OblitusSumMe

DavidL said:

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Maybe, just maybe after 4 years it is finally penetrating the awareness of pretty much all voters that Ed is the leader of the Labour party. Not his brother, not someone competent but Ed. If so, then his leadership surely becomes priced in when people say they intend to vote Labour.

This does not mean he is not a drag or that Labour would not have more support with a competent leader. It just means he has finally achieved name awareness. Well done David.

But people still forget that Cameron is the leader of the Conservative Party, after nine years? So he hasn't achieved name recognition? How could someone be a drag on a ticket if people don't recognise their name?

Your reasoning makes no sense.

Well it wouldn't if Cameron was still a lift for the tories but the difference is in the MoE.

I think polling asking if X or Y was leader of a party would you be more or less likely to vote for them makes a kind of sense. I am really not at all sure that the question Yougov have asked here makes any kind of sense at all.

By your reasoning Cameron's leadership of the Tories should be "priced in" to the Conservative poll scores, if he has achieved name recognition, yet mention of his name results in a lift for the Conservative score.

Thus your snark at Ed Miliband for "achieving" name recognition is based on nothing but your own prejudice. It has no basis in logic.

SquareRoot

ED has probably hit rock bottom.. pretty much only the diehards are left who support Labour. The rest have already made up their mind.

MarqueeMark

SquareRoot said:

ED has probably hit rock bottom.. pretty much only the diehards are left who support Labour. The rest have already made up their mind.

Labour's problem is that its long-neglected WWC base is seeing the Bright Shiny Things that UKIP waves in its faces - and is strangely, hypnotically attracted to them....

ToryJim

SimonStClare said:

@ToryJim - "Not since Julius Caesar clutched his bloodied toga to his chest in Rome's senate have there been such murderous moves from sandalled assassins."

It reads more like a script from ‘Up Pompeii’ - I’m sure Mr Dancer will be along later to correct Quentin Letts’ analogy..! ; )

Perhaps a better analogy would the attempt on Hugh II of Jaffa by an anonymous Breton knight in Jerusalem which is believed to have been on the orders of Fulk of Jerusalem, though nothing has been proven. Although Hugh survived the stabbing and savage beating he never fully recovered and succumbed within a month or so.

Fat_Steve

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

O/T The rise of the global left
http://www.buzzfeed.com/bensmith/british-labour-leader-sees-rise-of-the-global-left

The rise of the Global Left
Ed Miliband is Sion Simon*
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase

*recently resurrected as member of the European Parliament for the West Midlands region.
They just will NOT go away, some people.

DavidL

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Maybe, just maybe after 4 years it is finally penetrating the awareness of pretty much all voters that Ed is the leader of the Labour party. Not his brother, not someone competent but Ed. If so, then his leadership surely becomes priced in when people say they intend to vote Labour.

This does not mean he is not a drag or that Labour would not have more support with a competent leader. It just means he has finally achieved name awareness. Well done David.

But people still forget that Cameron is the leader of the Conservative Party, after nine years? So he hasn't achieved name recognition? How could someone be a drag on a ticket if people don't recognise their name?

Your reasoning makes no sense.

Well it wouldn't if Cameron was still a lift for the tories but the difference is in the MoE.

I think polling asking if X or Y was leader of a party would you be more or less likely to vote for them makes a kind of sense. I am really not at all sure that the question Yougov have asked here makes any kind of sense at all.

By your reasoning Cameron's leadership of the Tories should be "priced in" to the Conservative poll scores, if he has achieved name recognition, yet mention of his name results in a lift for the Conservative score.

Thus your snark at Ed Miliband for "achieving" name recognition is based on nothing but your own prejudice. It has no basis in logic.

For the second or third time the effect of mentioning Cameron is within the MoE.

Asking people who the PM is is still used with mentally ill patients to ascertain whether they are capable of an appropriate response. The idea that mentioning him should have any material effect on support for the tories is indeed absurd. The fact he is thought by most to be a good leader clearly helps the tories but it should be priced in.

Would you be more or less likely to vote tory if Michael Gove was leader may get a meaningful response. This question can only get a material response if people are unaware of who the leader of a particular party is.

JackW

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :

1 hour 1 minute 1 second

Fat_Steve

Peter Mandelson's diary comment in the Spetator is slightly gnomic

http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/diary/9219411/peter-mandelsons-diary-the-accomplishments-of-george-osborne-and-vladimir-putin/

" if Labour wants to become more than a minority administration in 2015. Douglas Alexander, the party’s election chief, said: ‘Labour can win the general election if we take the right steps between now and a year’s time.’ The ‘if’ has to include fewer crowd-pleasing cost-of-living promises and more counter-intuitive policies. "

Counter-intuitive policies? And what would those be?

Financier

TSE

An interesting poll that is a caveated VI.

However, the same poll immediately below this question which substitutes NC with Vince Cable - and the figures do not change!

So I suspect that the form of the question : "How would you vote" which most likely was followed by prompting by party name, would have over-ridden in the respondents' minds the names of the party leaders by the last mentioned party names which would be foremost in their minds.

Also in today's YouGov to the question: Best PM:
DC:34
EdM: 19 (of LAB VI; EdM:57; DC:6; NC:3; DK:34))
NC:5
DK: 41

In the last ST on well/badly:
DC: -9
EdM: -41 (LAB VI:+21)
NC: -56
NF: +18

Also that ST with a choice of Cons lead by DC and Labour lead by EdM has the result:

DC:41
EdM:37
DK: 22

In the same poll, DM was preferred to EdM by 41 to 11 and by Labour VI 40 to 28.

NickPalmer

The difficulty about this sort of thing is that if one highlights a particular aspect it attaches greater importance than the voter actually feels - that's especially true with the alternative leader polls that one sometimes sees ("How would you vote if Boris Johnson were Conservative leader?").

Based on personal experience (anecdotal but thousands of interactions so non-trivial), I don't think any of the leaders are sparking very strong reactions either way to the extent of shifting voting intention significantly (unlike e.g. Gordon Brown and Michael Howard), and partisans on all sides overestimate the impact of "Vote for us or you'll get X and that will be terrible" strategies. Many people think we're all a bit rubbish, frankly.

MarqueeMark

Financier said:

Also in today's YouGov to the question: Best PM:
DC:34
EdM: 19 (of LAB VI; EdM:57; DC:6; NC:3; DK:34))
NC:5
DK: 41

Who in the name of everything Holy are the 5% amongst us who think Nick Clegg the best choice for Prime Minister?

Monksfield

SquareRoot said:

ED has probably hit rock bottom.. pretty much only the diehards are left who support Labour. The rest have already made up their mind.

Happily Ed's rock bottom may still be good enough to deny Dave a majority in the current climate. How disappointed you must be.

Smarmeron

@NickPalmer

"Many people think we're all a bit rubbish, frankly."

That is because politicians are in the main.
Our political system means that even when "mavericks" manage to get elected, the system either tames them or they get vilified by the opposition. their own party, and the press.
If you need an example. The only time you make a semi controversial post on here on policy matters, it is usually about animal rights, and even then you nuance it so as not to be held hostage by your beliefs.
All major parties are the same, which leaves a large gap for someone willing to voice an opinion to make headway (up until they become major players, then political expediency kicks in).

SquareRoot

Monksfield said:

SquareRoot said:

ED has probably hit rock bottom.. pretty much only the diehards are left who support Labour. The rest have already made up their mind.

Happily Ed's rock bottom may still be good enough to deny Dave a majority in the current climate. How disappointed you must be.

Why? Many of the right thought that ED would not be good enough to be PM, It looks more and more like that than ever. Whether Dave is good enough to win is another matter.He should have thought more about the EU. It may well be the reason he doesn't win.

Pulpstar

Ed miliband no longer a liability ? I've heard it all now.

BobaFett

Cough. As I said on here yesterday.
After my Euros home run (vs WrongCrosby) you can just call me Nostradamus.

ToryJim

Interesting analysis of the race to be next EU Commission President. Looks like Juncker may be stopped. I'm not immersed in the Byzantine rules surrounding this but I'm guessing this decision requires unanimity rather than qmv?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/matspersson/100027323/the-race-is-wide-open-for-the-european-commissions-top-job-but-it-could-decide-david-camerons-fate/

BobaFett

RochdalePioneers said:

Ed is feeling the Nick is Crap effect - the utter ineptitude of the LibDems (lost almost all MEPs, lose close to half your councillors, track the decapitation) makes Eds pig butty antics look professional

I actually saw the Bacongate clip the other day. Just looks like an ordinary bloke eating a bacon sarnie. The stills in the paper look bad, but how is one supposed to eat one? Like a lady who lunches, nibbling at the edges?

Pulpstar

NickPalmer said:

The difficulty about this sort of thing is that if one highlights a particular aspect it attaches greater importance than the voter actually feels - that's especially true with the alternative leader polls that one sometimes sees ("How would you vote if Boris Johnson were Conservative leader?").

Based on personal experience (anecdotal but thousands of interactions so non-trivial), I don't think any of the leaders are sparking very strong reactions either way to the extent of shifting voting intention significantly (unlike e.g. Gordon Brown and Michael Howard), and partisans on all sides overestimate the impact of "Vote for us or you'll get X and that will be terrible" strategies. Many people think we're all a bit rubbish, frankly.

Could be true - though I've heard the following:

"If Labour would ditch Ed Balls I'd vote for them at GE" - long term Lib Dem friend
"They elected the wrong brother" fairly apolitical Lib Dem -> UKIP switcher colleague
" What you think that weirdo will win ?" BNP/UKIP colleague.

PBModerator

MikeK - Your comments re pollsters are unacceptable.

Anyone attacking the integrity of the pollsters will find their ability to instantly publish revoked.

antifrank1

BobaFett said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Ed is feeling the Nick is Crap effect - the utter ineptitude of the LibDems (lost almost all MEPs, lose close to half your councillors, track the decapitation) makes Eds pig butty antics look professional

I actually saw the Bacongate clip the other day. Just looks like an ordinary bloke eating a bacon sarnie. The stills in the paper look bad, but how is one supposed to eat one? Like a lady who lunches, nibbling at the edges?

Standing up and not hunched.

Better still, don't go on staged meet-and-greets and fall into such obvious traps.

Financier

MarqueeMark said:

Financier said:

Also in today's YouGov to the question: Best PM:
DC:34
EdM: 19 (of LAB VI; EdM:57; DC:6; NC:3; DK:34))
NC:5
DK: 41

Who in the name of everything Holy are the 5% amongst us who think Nick Clegg the best choice for Prime Minister?

3% of LAB VI and 45% of LD VI

Presumably you have trimmed your beard this morning, cleaned the open-toed sandals (it is nigh summer) and donned an extra oatmeal, cable-sitched (pun not intended) sweater??

Smarmeron

@BobaFett

Take hundreds of pictures of anyone performing a simple task and you will get at least one that looks slightly odd, after that it becomes a matter of the picture editor finding the one that suits the papers or particular article's bias.

Charles

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Maybe, just maybe after 4 years it is finally penetrating the awareness of pretty much all voters that Ed is the leader of the Labour party. Not his brother, not someone competent but Ed. If so, then his leadership surely becomes priced in when people say they intend to vote Labour.

This does not mean he is not a drag or that Labour would not have more support with a competent leader. It just means he has finally achieved name awareness. Well done David.

But people still forget that Cameron is the leader of the Conservative Party, after nine years? So he hasn't achieved name recognition? How could someone be a drag on a ticket if people don't recognise their name?

Your reasoning makes no sense.

Well it wouldn't if Cameron was still a lift for the tories but the difference is in the MoE.

I think polling asking if X or Y was leader of a party would you be more or less likely to vote for them makes a kind of sense. I am really not at all sure that the question Yougov have asked here makes any kind of sense at all.

By your reasoning Cameron's leadership of the Tories should be "priced in" to the Conservative poll scores, if he has achieved name recognition, yet mention of his name results in a lift for the Conservative score.

Thus your snark at Ed Miliband for "achieving" name recognition is based on nothing but your own prejudice. It has no basis in logic.

What you are catching is people don't care about politics but think "ooo, I rather like that nice Mr Cameron" or Mr Miliband or vice versa. Many identifiy with the party leaders not the parties.

Charles

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Maybe, just maybe after 4 years it is finally penetrating the awareness of pretty much all voters that Ed is the leader of the Labour party. Not his brother, not someone competent but Ed. If so, then his leadership surely becomes priced in when people say they intend to vote Labour.

This does not mean he is not a drag or that Labour would not have more support with a competent leader. It just means he has finally achieved name awareness. Well done David.

But people still forget that Cameron is the leader of the Conservative Party, after nine years? So he hasn't achieved name recognition? How could someone be a drag on a ticket if people don't recognise their name?

Your reasoning makes no sense.

Well it wouldn't if Cameron was still a lift for the tories but the difference is in the MoE.

I think polling asking if X or Y was leader of a party would you be more or less likely to vote for them makes a kind of sense. I am really not at all sure that the question Yougov have asked here makes any kind of sense at all.

By your reasoning Cameron's leadership of the Tories should be "priced in" to the Conservative poll scores, if he has achieved name recognition, yet mention of his name results in a lift for the Conservative score.

Thus your snark at Ed Miliband for "achieving" name recognition is based on nothing but your own prejudice. It has no basis in logic.

What you are catching is people don't care about politics but think "ooo, I rather like that nice Mr Cameron" or Mr Miliband or vice versa. Many identifiy with the party leaders not the parties.

BobaFett

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Maybe, just maybe after 4 years it is finally penetrating the awareness of pretty much all voters that Ed is the leader of the Labour party. Not his brother, not someone competent but Ed. If so, then his leadership surely becomes priced in when people say they intend to vote Labour.

This does not mean he is not a drag or that Labour would not have more support with a competent leader. It just means he has finally achieved name awareness. Well done David.

But people still forget that Cameron is the leader of the Conservative Party, after nine years? So he hasn't achieved name recognition? How could someone be a drag on a ticket if people don't recognise their name?

Your reasoning makes no sense.

Well it wouldn't if Cameron was still a lift for the tories but the difference is in the MoE.

I think polling asking if X or Y was leader of a party would you be more or less likely to vote for them makes a kind of sense. I am really not at all sure that the question Yougov have asked here makes any kind of sense at all.

By your reasoning Cameron's leadership of the Tories should be "priced in" to the Conservative poll scores, if he has achieved name recognition, yet mention of his name results in a lift for the Conservative score.

Thus your snark at Ed Miliband for "achieving" name recognition is based on nothing but your own prejudice. It has no basis in logic.

DavidL does at least bet, as I understand it. Much of the prejudice on here is from those who have no interest in actually backing up their opinions with hard cash. Witness the nasty and somewhat sinister references to Ed being weird and therefore never becoming Prime Minister - it's often for the poster's own 'weird' amusement, rather than backed by any moolah.

Slackbladder

BobaFett said:

Cough. As I said on here yesterday.
After my Euros home run (vs WrongCrosby) you can just call me Nostradamus.

That reminds me...wheres Roger?

ToryJim

BobaFett said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Ed is feeling the Nick is Crap effect - the utter ineptitude of the LibDems (lost almost all MEPs, lose close to half your councillors, track the decapitation) makes Eds pig butty antics look professional

I actually saw the Bacongate clip the other day. Just looks like an ordinary bloke eating a bacon sarnie. The stills in the paper look bad, but how is one supposed to eat one? Like a lady who lunches, nibbling at the edges?

These stories are usually symptomatic of a rubbish leader, a well liked and popular leader wouldn't be subject to such things.

JackW

PBModerator said:

MikeK - Your comments re pollsters are unacceptable.

Anyone attacking the integrity of the pollsters will find their ability to instantly publish revoked.

Do I get a lollipop for being a snitch ?

BobaFett

Smarmeron said:

@BobaFett

Take hundreds of pictures of anyone performing a simple task and you will get at least one that looks slightly odd, after that it becomes a matter of the picture editor finding the one that suits the papers or particular article's bias.

Indeed. I wonder how hard it would be to find a nasty still of a PB Tory eating, say, a slice of toast?

SouthamObserver

Good to see that nothing dodgy at all happened in the Scotland v Nigeria game last night:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOS8TWmiW4A

SimonStClare

Smarmeron said:

@BobaFett

Take hundreds of pictures of anyone performing a simple task and you will get at least one that looks slightly odd, after that it becomes a matter of the picture editor finding the one that suits the papers or particular article's bias.

Labour grandee Tessa Jowell said the basic presentational errors of the campaign were unforgivable. ‘If you are a politician . . . don’t eat a bacon butty when the world’s cameras are on you.’

Is that 'media bias' too?

Smarmeron

@ToryJim

"a well liked and popular leader wouldn't be subject to such things. "

You believe in the tooth fairy Jim?

BobaFett

antifrank1 said:

BobaFett said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Ed is feeling the Nick is Crap effect - the utter ineptitude of the LibDems (lost almost all MEPs, lose close to half your councillors, track the decapitation) makes Eds pig butty antics look professional

I actually saw the Bacongate clip the other day. Just looks like an ordinary bloke eating a bacon sarnie. The stills in the paper look bad, but how is one supposed to eat one? Like a lady who lunches, nibbling at the edges?

Standing up and not hunched.

Better still, don't go on staged meet-and-greets and fall into such obvious traps.

Who cares? Man goes to cafe and eats sandwich. Completely ridiculous - if you can really be bothered look at the clip. FFS.

Slackbladder

BobaFett said:

Smarmeron said:

@BobaFett

Take hundreds of pictures of anyone performing a simple task and you will get at least one that looks slightly odd, after that it becomes a matter of the picture editor finding the one that suits the papers or particular article's bias.

Indeed. I wonder how hard it would be to find a nasty still of a PB Tory eating, say, a slice of toast?

You know we all eat babies for breakfast

JackW

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :

15 minutes

ToryJim

Smarmeron said:

@ToryJim

"a well liked and popular leader wouldn't be subject to such things. "

You believe in the tooth fairy Jim?

No but it's fairly apparent that unsympathetic press is as much a symptom of unpopularity as a driver of it.

antifrank1

BobaFett said:

antifrank1 said:

BobaFett said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Ed is feeling the Nick is Crap effect - the utter ineptitude of the LibDems (lost almost all MEPs, lose close to half your councillors, track the decapitation) makes Eds pig butty antics look professional

I actually saw the Bacongate clip the other day. Just looks like an ordinary bloke eating a bacon sarnie. The stills in the paper look bad, but how is one supposed to eat one? Like a lady who lunches, nibbling at the edges?

Standing up and not hunched.

Better still, don't go on staged meet-and-greets and fall into such obvious traps.

Who cares? Man goes to cafe and eats sandwich. Completely ridiculous - if you can really be bothered look at the clip. FFS.

It was a Labour-planned photoshoot. Stop mewling and accept it was an entirely avoidable balls-up.

SouthamObserver

SimonStClare said:

Smarmeron said:

@BobaFett

Take hundreds of pictures of anyone performing a simple task and you will get at least one that looks slightly odd, after that it becomes a matter of the picture editor finding the one that suits the papers or particular article's bias.

Labour grandee Tessa Jowell said the basic presentational errors of the campaign were unforgivable. ‘If you are a politician . . . don’t eat a bacon butty when the world’s cameras are on you.’

Is that 'media bias' too?

No, it's very sage advice given the media's proclivity to publish the worst possible photo of Ed Miliband in any given situation.

Smarmeron

@SimonStClare

By "presentation" you mean "don't do anything natural"?
Cameron could be portrayed any way to suit a papers natural bias, the right picture, and a suitable caption or article is all it takes.
It's what I have been pointing out all morning.

CarlottaVance

SouthamObserver said:

SimonStClare said:

Smarmeron said:

@BobaFett

Take hundreds of pictures of anyone performing a simple task and you will get at least one that looks slightly odd, after that it becomes a matter of the picture editor finding the one that suits the papers or particular article's bias.

Labour grandee Tessa Jowell said the basic presentational errors of the campaign were unforgivable. ‘If you are a politician . . . don’t eat a bacon butty when the world’s cameras are on you.’

Is that 'media bias' too?

No, it's very sage advice given the media's proclivity to publish the worst possible photo of Ed Miliband in any given situation.

Not just Ed - ask "Riverdance Eck" about unfortunate photos......

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2641862/First-Minister-Silly-Walks-Alex-Salmond-mocked-alongside-Basil-Fawlty-Miley-Cyrus-Riverdance.html

Financier

BobaFett said:

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Maybe, just maybe after 4 years it is finally penetrating the awareness of pretty much all voters that Ed is the leader of the Labour party. Not his brother, not someone competent but Ed. If so, then his leadership surely becomes priced in when people say they intend to vote Labour.

This does not mean he is not a drag or that Labour would not have more support with a competent leader. It just means he has finally achieved name awareness. Well done David.

But people still forget that Cameron is the leader of the Conservative Party, after nine years? So he hasn't achieved name recognition? How could someone be a drag on a ticket if people don't recognise their name?

Your reasoning makes no sense.

Well it wouldn't if Cameron was still a lift for the tories but the difference is in the MoE.

I think polling asking if X or Y was leader of a party would you be more or less likely to vote for them makes a kind of sense. I am really not at all sure that the question Yougov have asked here makes any kind of sense at all.

By your reasoning Cameron's leadership of the Tories should be "priced in" to the Conservative poll scores, if he has achieved name recognition, yet mention of his name results in a lift for the Conservative score.

Thus your snark at Ed Miliband for "achieving" name recognition is based on nothing but your own prejudice. It has no basis in logic.

DavidL does at least bet, as I understand it. Much of the prejudice on here is from those who have no interest in actually backing up their opinions with hard cash. Witness the nasty and somewhat sinister references to Ed being weird and therefore never becoming Prime Minister - it's often for the poster's own 'weird' amusement, rather than backed by any moolah.

The skill of betting is not to bet on losers (unless you can shift that bet onto some other loser at a profit) but to be on certainties. Fun bets are those at very long odds which occasionally come off (like OGH) and where losing the cash does not hurt. And losing £5 to some may be a greater wound than losing £1,000 to others.

It is not weird not to back opinions by cash in this fast-moving and unpredictable (like the jet stream which the Met Office are unable to predict for more than seven days ahead) political climate.

As Fagin said, it is time to survey the situation - just allow a little more time and get out and talk to people on the streets which are not in your locality.

SouthamObserver

The Times drops a bit of a faux pas. Taxi for the picture editor ...

twitter.com/hendopolis/status/471767071085563905/photo/1

SimonStClare

SouthamObserver said:

SimonStClare said:

Smarmeron said:

@BobaFett

Take hundreds of pictures of anyone performing a simple task and you will get at least one that looks slightly odd, after that it becomes a matter of the picture editor finding the one that suits the papers or particular article's bias.

Labour grandee Tessa Jowell said the basic presentational errors of the campaign were unforgivable. ‘If you are a politician . . . don’t eat a bacon butty when the world’s cameras are on you.’

Is that 'media bias' too?

No, it's very sage advice given the media's proclivity to publish the worst possible photo of Ed Miliband in any given situation.

I agree entirely SO, - and sound advice for any budding politician I'd imagine.

Charles

BobaFett said:

Smarmeron said:

@BobaFett

Take hundreds of pictures of anyone performing a simple task and you will get at least one that looks slightly odd, after that it becomes a matter of the picture editor finding the one that suits the papers or particular article's bias.

Indeed. I wonder how hard it would be to find a nasty still of a PB Tory eating, say, a slice of toast?

I would never cut the crusts off my bread ;-)

Financier

Smarmeron said:

@SimonStClare

By "presentation" you mean "don't do anything natural"?
Cameron could be portrayed any way to suit a papers natural bias, the right picture, and a suitable caption or article is all it takes.
It's what I have been pointing out all morning.

Farage has been pictured with a pint (nowt wrong with that), but has he been shown with a cigarette (buckets of condemnation)?
Also never try to be one of the lads - just will not work.

dr_spyn

@SimonStClare Ed M's twitter stream has some appalling shots, either they have given up or they still employ interns.

BobaFett

antifrank1 said:

BobaFett said:

antifrank1 said:

BobaFett said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Ed is feeling the Nick is Crap effect - the utter ineptitude of the LibDems (lost almost all MEPs, lose close to half your councillors, track the decapitation) makes Eds pig butty antics look professional

I actually saw the Bacongate clip the other day. Just looks like an ordinary bloke eating a bacon sarnie. The stills in the paper look bad, but how is one supposed to eat one? Like a lady who lunches, nibbling at the edges?

Standing up and not hunched.

Better still, don't go on staged meet-and-greets and fall into such obvious traps.

Who cares? Man goes to cafe and eats sandwich. Completely ridiculous - if you can really be bothered look at the clip. FFS.

It was a Labour-planned photoshoot. Stop mewling and accept it was an entirely avoidable balls-up.

Remove your claws forthwith. Bloke eats bacon. What I like about Ed is that he doesn't go into cafes worried about what a few stills on a reel might look like, in the manner of a vain teenage schoolgirl.

Smarmeron

@Financier

It depends on how the politician is viewed by the public. At the moment, a picture of Farage with a pint and fag in hand plays for him, but I have no doubt it will be a trap for him at some point.
An editors wet dream :- Farage with a pint, followed by one of an accidental trip a little later.
The headline writes itself.

JackW

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection :

Con 317 .. Lab 268 .. LibDem 32 .. SNP 8 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 3 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 9 seats short of a majority.

Notes :

Highest Con seat number .. Lowest LibDem seat number.

.......................................................................................

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

antifrank1

BobaFett said:

antifrank1 said:

BobaFett said:

antifrank1 said:

BobaFett said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Ed is feeling the Nick is Crap effect - the utter ineptitude of the LibDems (lost almost all MEPs, lose close to half your councillors, track the decapitation) makes Eds pig butty antics look professional

I actually saw the Bacongate clip the other day. Just looks like an ordinary bloke eating a bacon sarnie. The stills in the paper look bad, but how is one supposed to eat one? Like a lady who lunches, nibbling at the edges?

Standing up and not hunched.

Better still, don't go on staged meet-and-greets and fall into such obvious traps.

Who cares? Man goes to cafe and eats sandwich. Completely ridiculous - if you can really be bothered look at the clip. FFS.

It was a Labour-planned photoshoot. Stop mewling and accept it was an entirely avoidable balls-up.

Remove your claws forthwith. Bloke eats bacon. What I like about Ed is that he doesn't go into cafes worried about what a few stills on a reel might look like, in the manner of a vain teenage schoolgirl.

Now you're being silly. This was a photoshoot designed to show Ed as a man buying flowers for his wife and being a caring husband. It turned into "weird Ed can't even eat a sandwich properly". Both stories are equally emetic, of course, but the idea of unspun Ed is just daft. He was badly spun.

saddened

BobaFett said:

Cough. As I said on here yesterday.
After my Euros home run (vs WrongCrosby) you can just call me Nostradamus.

Why are you trying to rewrite history? Rod said there may be value in betting that Labour could come third. He didn't make a prediction, he pointed out the value in a bet. That bet failed to come off by a narrow margin. What you do is carp after the event.

NickPalmer

Smarmeron said:

@NickPalmer

"Many people think we're all a bit rubbish, frankly."

That is because politicians are in the main.
Our political system means that even when "mavericks" manage to get elected, the system either tames them or they get vilified by the opposition. their own party, and the press.
If you need an example. The only time you make a semi controversial post on here on policy matters, it is usually about animal rights, and even then you nuance it so as not to be held hostage by your beliefs.
All major parties are the same, which leaves a large gap for someone willing to voice an opinion to make headway (up until they become major players, then political expediency kicks in).

I don't think the function of PB is to discuss policy, though of course we can if we want to, and for those of us who chose to identify ourselves the risks are considerable. The upside of putting forward policy arguments to a forum of non-constituents with strong prior views is negligible (say I spend a few hours arguing a case and persuade Marquee Mark that we should nationalise the biscuit tin industry, so what?), while the downside of being quoted out of context is significant: SeanT has already said he's going to write a column for the Telegraph giving my comments here as an example of awfulness. I generally stick to discussing trends. Most active politicians don't identify themselves here at all since they really only see a downside.

That said, I'm not a maverick anyway even on my local blog, where I do discuss policy. Mavericks are good fun, but the range of reasonable actions for government is narrower than partisans would like, and most mavericks are actually more rubbish if you burrow down to what they really want to do. My local USP is (or tries to be) reasonable discussion of what I think is possible rather than colourful stuff that people might think was intriguing but don't necessarily quite believe. Mavericks do well in inverse proportion to the perceived significance of the election.

Financier

BobaFett said:

antifrank1 said:

BobaFett said:

antifrank1 said:

BobaFett said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Ed is feeling the Nick is Crap effect - the utter ineptitude of the LibDems (lost almost all MEPs, lose close to half your councillors, track the decapitation) makes Eds pig butty antics look professional

I actually saw the Bacongate clip the other day. Just looks like an ordinary bloke eating a bacon sarnie. The stills in the paper look bad, but how is one supposed to eat one? Like a lady who lunches, nibbling at the edges?

Standing up and not hunched.

Better still, don't go on staged meet-and-greets and fall into such obvious traps.

Who cares? Man goes to cafe and eats sandwich. Completely ridiculous - if you can really be bothered look at the clip. FFS.

It was a Labour-planned photoshoot. Stop mewling and accept it was an entirely avoidable balls-up.

Remove your claws forthwith. Bloke eats bacon. What I like about Ed is that he doesn't go into cafes worried about what a few stills on a reel might look like, in the manner of a vain teenage schoolgirl.

An embarrassing or just wrong pic lives with you for ever or until you leave politics and still may be brought out at your obit. That pic can define you - even if that image is nothing like your persona.
Hague and the baseball cap etc.

EdM and Labour spend thousands and thousands on PR - just one bad pic or statement can waste all of that in a second - bigotgate or housekeeping?

SandyRentool

The EU needs to review their idea of a televised debate between candidates. You could just pull in five random people off the street none of whom has a chance of becoming Commission President. And I didn't receive my ballot paper at the polling station giving me a chance to vote for Ska. Typical Euro-shambles - I blame the Lib Dems.

SimonStClare

dr_spyn said:

@SimonStClare Ed M's twitter stream has some appalling shots, either they have given up or they still employ interns.

For a stage managed event, it was very poorly executed - More sage advice, if a photo op goes tits up, make sure you are holding at least two Union Jacks..!

http://37.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m831oeyKqa1qgmm7uo1_500.jpg

SouthamObserver

BobaFett said:

antifrank1 said:

BobaFett said:

antifrank1 said:

BobaFett said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Ed is feeling the Nick is Crap effect - the utter ineptitude of the LibDems (lost almost all MEPs, lose close to half your councillors, track the decapitation) makes Eds pig butty antics look professional

I actually saw the Bacongate clip the other day. Just looks like an ordinary bloke eating a bacon sarnie. The stills in the paper look bad, but how is one supposed to eat one? Like a lady who lunches, nibbling at the edges?

Standing up and not hunched.

Better still, don't go on staged meet-and-greets and fall into such obvious traps.

Who cares? Man goes to cafe and eats sandwich. Completely ridiculous - if you can really be bothered look at the clip. FFS.

It was a Labour-planned photoshoot. Stop mewling and accept it was an entirely avoidable balls-up.

Remove your claws forthwith. Bloke eats bacon. What I like about Ed is that he doesn't go into cafes worried about what a few stills on a reel might look like, in the manner of a vain teenage schoolgirl.

Hmmm - Ed did a photo-shoot. It's not as if he is snapped having his breakfast everyday. It was a very silly thing to do, with no possible upside and plenty of downsides.

What I did enjoy on here at the time though were the accusations that Ed did it in order to make a pitch for the anti-Semitic vote.

Smarmeron

@BobaFett

" in the manner of a vain teenage schoolgirl."

I have a guilty pleasure in remembering Cameron being asked to give an off the cuff statement just before the last election. He checked his appearance and rearranged his hair in the nearest reflective object, which just happened to be the lens guard of another running camera.
Nothing wrong in that really, it just fitted my perception of him.

Slackbladder

antifrank1 said:

BobaFett said:

antifrank1 said:

BobaFett said:

antifrank1 said:

BobaFett said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Ed is feeling the Nick is Crap effect - the utter ineptitude of the LibDems (lost almost all MEPs, lose close to half your councillors, track the decapitation) makes Eds pig butty antics look professional

I actually saw the Bacongate clip the other day. Just looks like an ordinary bloke eating a bacon sarnie. The stills in the paper look bad, but how is one supposed to eat one? Like a lady who lunches, nibbling at the edges?

Standing up and not hunched.

Better still, don't go on staged meet-and-greets and fall into such obvious traps.

Who cares? Man goes to cafe and eats sandwich. Completely ridiculous - if you can really be bothered look at the clip. FFS.

It was a Labour-planned photoshoot. Stop mewling and accept it was an entirely avoidable balls-up.

Remove your claws forthwith. Bloke eats bacon. What I like about Ed is that he doesn't go into cafes worried about what a few stills on a reel might look like, in the manner of a vain teenage schoolgirl.

Now you're being silly. This was a photoshoot designed to show Ed as a man buying flowers for his wife and being a caring husband. It turned into "weird Ed can't even eat a sandwich properly". Both stories are equally emetic, of course, but the idea of unspun Ed is just daft. He was badly spun.

If you live by the spin, you die by the spin. Does anyone believe Ed is fan of bacon sarnies daily, or pops into Greggs regularly, or is the type of guy which enjoys a regular pint. No. So if labour operate photo shoots to show him to be something he's not then that deserves to be mocked.

Mind you, I expect all of the 'PBTories' will spend less time going on about it than a certain ex-poster did on things like 'Cameron drinks a Guinness', or 'Osborne tears at funeral'.

MikeK

JackW said:

PBModerator said:

MikeK - Your comments re pollsters are unacceptable.

Anyone attacking the integrity of the pollsters will find their ability to instantly publish revoked.

Do I get a lollipop for being a snitch ?

What a woeful web we weave, when there is no free speech on PB. I wasn't attacking Pollsters per se, I was questioning the way they pose those questions. I find that quite acceptable, even if PB is getting too lily livered to question the pollsters methods, which we all used to do without being banned or purged.

You get half a lollipop, I've bitten off the other half in (pseudo) rage.

BobaFett

SouthamObserver said:

BobaFett said:

antifrank1 said:

BobaFett said:

antifrank1 said:

BobaFett said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Ed is feeling the Nick is Crap effect - the utter ineptitude of the LibDems (lost almost all MEPs, lose close to half your councillors, track the decapitation) makes Eds pig butty antics look professional

I actually saw the Bacongate clip the other day. Just looks like an ordinary bloke eating a bacon sarnie. The stills in the paper look bad, but how is one supposed to eat one? Like a lady who lunches, nibbling at the edges?

Standing up and not hunched.

Better still, don't go on staged meet-and-greets and fall into such obvious traps.

Who cares? Man goes to cafe and eats sandwich. Completely ridiculous - if you can really be bothered look at the clip. FFS.

It was a Labour-planned photoshoot. Stop mewling and accept it was an entirely avoidable balls-up.

Remove your claws forthwith. Bloke eats bacon. What I like about Ed is that he doesn't go into cafes worried about what a few stills on a reel might look like, in the manner of a vain teenage schoolgirl.

Hmmm - Ed did a photo-shoot. It's not as if he is snapped having his breakfast everyday. It was a very silly thing to do, with no possible upside and plenty of downsides.

What I did enjoy on here at the time though were the accusations that Ed did it in order to make a pitch for the anti-Semitic vote.

Yes, that was a PB highlight of the Euros campaign.

BobaFett

saddened said:

BobaFett said:

Cough. As I said on here yesterday.
After my Euros home run (vs WrongCrosby) you can just call me Nostradamus.

Why are you trying to rewrite history? Rod said there may be value in betting that Labour could come third. He didn't make a prediction, he pointed out the value in a bet. That bet failed to come off by a narrow margin. What you do is carp after the event.

Absolute rubbish. Check the thread on the night. Even Rod himself has freely admitted on here he made an in-play UNS bet which was wrong. I stuck to my guns.

another_richard

Stuart_Dickson said:

Newark by-election.

LAB have drifted to 66/1 at Betfair. At that silly price you begin to get a bit tempted. Worth a fiver?

If UKIP take enough votes off CON, and LAB take enough votes off LIBDEM, could LAB not come through the middle? Must be worth at 66/1 punt?

Result - Newark 2010

Con 27,590
Lab 11,438
LD 10,246
UKIP 1,954

That's certainly an indictment of Labour.

Opposition party in second place with the third placed party disintegrating and nobody, well apart from OGH, thinks they have a chance.

As to whether 66/1 is value I'm not sure, I suspect we're more likely to see a disintegration of Labour's vote. Newark has the potential to be as humiliating for Labour as for the Conservatives or LibDems.

ToryJim

SandyRentool said:

The EU needs to review their idea of a televised debate between candidates. You could just pull in five random people off the street none of whom has a chance of becoming Commission President. And I didn't receive my ballot paper at the polling station giving me a chance to vote for Ska. Typical Euro-shambles - I blame the Lib Dems.

I didn't watch because I assumed it would be a case of them all out federalising each other whilst pretending otherwise.

Charles

SouthamObserver said:

Hmmm - Ed did a photo-shoot. It's not as if he is snapped having his breakfast everyday. It was a very silly thing to do, with no possible upside and plenty of downsides.

What I did enjoy on here at the time though were the accusations that Ed did it in order to make a pitch for the anti-Semitic vote.

That was quite an amusing segue from reality.

But I think you are misremembering - I believe it was positioned as an attempt to win over anti-Semites who would vote against him on the basis that his genetic descent (if not religion) was Jewish. So not *quite* targetting the anti-Semitic vote.

BobaFett

another_richard said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Newark by-election.

LAB have drifted to 66/1 at Betfair. At that silly price you begin to get a bit tempted. Worth a fiver?

If UKIP take enough votes off CON, and LAB take enough votes off LIBDEM, could LAB not come through the middle? Must be worth at 66/1 punt?

Result - Newark 2010

Con 27,590
Lab 11,438
LD 10,246
UKIP 1,954

That's certainly an indictment of Labour.

Opposition party in second place with the third placed party disintegrating and nobody, well apart from OGH, thinks they have a chance.

As to whether 66/1 is value I'm not sure, I suspect we're more likely to see a disintegration of Labour's vote. Newark has the potential to be as humiliating for Labour as for the Conservatives or LibDems.

Hardly. It's not a Labour target. We had this with Eastleigh. Labour will be hoping for a Ukip tactical vote to further destabilise the Tories.

Icarus

Off Topic - My wife is going to Barcelona today, one of her friends is already there, but rang last night to say consider not coming as there are riots in Sants, the part of the city they are staying in. They were ordered to leave a restaurant by the police.

I have heard nothing on the radio on in UK press but on the internet pictures of barricades and fires in the streets.

Smarmeron

@NickPalmer

I am not trying to say you should be more controversial Nick,
I just think that the childishness of political reporting means we get more emphasis on presentation and personality than actual policy.
24 hour media heightens this and turns politicians into bland clones.
We get what we deserve I suppose.

BobaFett

BobaFett said:

saddened said:

BobaFett said:

Cough. As I said on here yesterday.
After my Euros home run (vs WrongCrosby) you can just call me Nostradamus.

Why are you trying to rewrite history? Rod said there may be value in betting that Labour could come third. He didn't make a prediction, he pointed out the value in a bet. That bet failed to come off by a narrow margin. What you do is carp after the event.

Absolute rubbish. Check the thread on the night. Even Rod himself has freely admitted on here he made an in-play UNS bet which was wrong. I stuck to my guns.

Sorry, bet=forecast
I don't know whether he actually bet on it.

Socrates

I see this morning that the UK bill for the EU looks like it will increase by half a billion:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10860397/Anger-as-European-Commission-asks-British-taxpayers-for-an-extra-500m.html

This is why we just can't remain in the EU. They are a fundamentally dishonest organisation. We agree to cut our rebate for CAP reform. The reform never happens. We negotiate an agreement to not pay into the Eurozone bailout fund. We have to pay for the bailouts through another fund. We agree to cut the budget, but they put it up anyway through backroom channels. And out governments are complicit in their dishonesty. We get promised a referendum on the EU Constitution, but they rename it the Lisbon Treaty and say it's something different. We get a referendum lock on significant movement of powers to the EU. But this is just for treaties and they move stuff like Justice Affairs across to the EU via non-treaty mechanisms.

This is why us eurosceptics don't trust David Cameron at all on the referendum issue. I'm sure they'll announce some deal that sounds great in practice, and will shift the polls in the EU's favour in the short term. But, just with every other deal we've had in the last decade. It's going to fall apart in the small print, which will take a few months to come out. Cameron knows this full well, because he's a mendacious europhile, and hopes to hold a quick poll before the truth comes out.

TGOHF

Boba - are you trying to out whine the kippers ?

Slackbladder

BobaFett said:

another_richard said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Newark by-election.

LAB have drifted to 66/1 at Betfair. At that silly price you begin to get a bit tempted. Worth a fiver?

If UKIP take enough votes off CON, and LAB take enough votes off LIBDEM, could LAB not come through the middle? Must be worth at 66/1 punt?

Result - Newark 2010

Con 27,590
Lab 11,438
LD 10,246
UKIP 1,954

That's certainly an indictment of Labour.

Opposition party in second place with the third placed party disintegrating and nobody, well apart from OGH, thinks they have a chance.

As to whether 66/1 is value I'm not sure, I suspect we're more likely to see a disintegration of Labour's vote. Newark has the potential to be as humiliating for Labour as for the Conservatives or LibDems.

Hardly. It's not a Labour target. We had this with Eastleigh. Labour will be hoping for a Ukip tactical vote to further destabilise the Tories.

I'm sorry, that's really re-writing the facts to fit your reality. In Eastleigh Labour were in third place, and already had tactical voting in place to support the lib dems.

In Newark, they are second, so should be challenging to win. Giving up and dropping to third is not what a party looking for government should be doing.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

ToryJim said:

SandyRentool said:

The EU needs to review their idea of a televised debate between candidates. You could just pull in five random people off the street none of whom has a chance of becoming Commission President. And I didn't receive my ballot paper at the polling station giving me a chance to vote for Ska. Typical Euro-shambles - I blame the Lib Dems.

I didn't watch because I assumed it would be a case of them all out federalising each other whilst pretending otherwise.

I saw the first few minutes of it and there wasn't any pretending otherwise.
A bit more Europe and being more united blah, blah, blah, was about the gist of it

ToryJim

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

ToryJim said:

SandyRentool said:

The EU needs to review their idea of a televised debate between candidates. You could just pull in five random people off the street none of whom has a chance of becoming Commission President. And I didn't receive my ballot paper at the polling station giving me a chance to vote for Ska. Typical Euro-shambles - I blame the Lib Dems.

I didn't watch because I assumed it would be a case of them all out federalising each other whilst pretending otherwise.

I saw the first few minutes of it and there wasn't any pretending otherwise.
A bit more Europe and being more united blah, blah, blah, was about the gist of it

Oh even worse than I imagined.

anotherDave

Survation on the EU Parliament polls.

http://survation.com/reviewing-this-years-ep-polling/

BobaFett

Slackbladder said:

BobaFett said:

another_richard said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Newark by-election.

LAB have drifted to 66/1 at Betfair. At that silly price you begin to get a bit tempted. Worth a fiver?

If UKIP take enough votes off CON, and LAB take enough votes off LIBDEM, could LAB not come through the middle? Must be worth at 66/1 punt?

Result - Newark 2010

Con 27,590
Lab 11,438
LD 10,246
UKIP 1,954

That's certainly an indictment of Labour.

Opposition party in second place with the third placed party disintegrating and nobody, well apart from OGH, thinks they have a chance.

As to whether 66/1 is value I'm not sure, I suspect we're more likely to see a disintegration of Labour's vote. Newark has the potential to be as humiliating for Labour as for the Conservatives or LibDems.

Hardly. It's not a Labour target. We had this with Eastleigh. Labour will be hoping for a Ukip tactical vote to further destabilise the Tories.

I'm sorry, that's really re-writing the facts to fit your reality. In Eastleigh Labour were in third place, and already had tactical voting in place to support the lib dems.

In Newark, they are second, so should be challenging to win. Giving up and dropping to third is not what a party looking for government should be doing.

Newark is an absolute no-hope seat for Labour, as you know. Backwater monocultural provincial semi rural seat in the middle of nowhere, just about as far away from a Labour target as it's possible to be without being in Surrey.

SouthamObserver

Icarus said:

Off Topic - My wife is going to Barcelona today, one of her friends is already there, but rang last night to say consider not coming as there are riots in Sants, the part of the city they are staying in. They were ordered to leave a restaurant by the police.

I have heard nothing on the radio on in UK press but on the internet pictures of barricades and fires in the streets.

Yes, they have been going on for a few days now. They started after the police evicted a left-wing collective from a building they had been occupying for a number of years. It does look pretty hairy. 27 arrests last night. Barcelona is not a happy place at the moment.

Pulpstar

Financier said:

BobaFett said:

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Maybe, just maybe after 4 years it is finally penetrating the awareness of pretty much all voters that Ed is the leader of the Labour party. Not his brother, not someone competent but Ed. If so, then his leadership surely becomes priced in when people say they intend to vote Labour.

This does not mean he is not a drag or that Labour would not have more support with a competent leader. It just means he has finally achieved name awareness. Well done David.

But people still forget that Cameron is the leader of the Conservative Party, after nine years? So he hasn't achieved name recognition? How could someone be a drag on a ticket if people don't recognise their name?

Your reasoning makes no sense.

Well it wouldn't if Cameron was still a lift for the tories but the difference is in the MoE.

I think polling asking if X or Y was leader of a party would you be more or less likely to vote for them makes a kind of sense. I am really not at all sure that the question Yougov have asked here makes any kind of sense at all.

By your reasoning Cameron's leadership of the Tories should be "priced in" to the Conservative poll scores, if he has achieved name recognition, yet mention of his name results in a lift for the Conservative score.

Thus your snark at Ed Miliband for "achieving" name recognition is based on nothing but your own prejudice. It has no basis in logic.

DavidL does at least bet, as I understand it. Much of the prejudice on here is from those who have no interest in actually backing up their opinions with hard cash. Witness the nasty and somewhat sinister references to Ed being weird and therefore never becoming Prime Minister - it's often for the poster's own 'weird' amusement, rather than backed by any moolah.

The skill of betting is not to bet on losers (unless you can shift that bet onto some other loser at a profit) but to be on certainties. Fun bets are those at very long odds which occasionally come off (like OGH) and where losing the cash does not hurt. And losing £5 to some may be a greater wound than losing £1,000 to others.

It is not weird not to back opinions by cash in this fast-moving and unpredictable (like the jet stream which the Met Office are unable to predict for more than seven days ahead) political climate.

As Fagin said, it is time to survey the situation - just allow a little more time and get out and talk to people on the streets which are not in your locality.

There is no such thing as a certainty.

I wouldn't even call my GE2015 @ 1-9 bet a certainty. Better than 1-9, sure. But not a certainty.