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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB EP2014 Competition: Predict the party shares to win

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  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The teachers spend more time with these children than the rest,"

    There was also the labour voter who lost out on her pension because she took time off to look after her kids, whilst she reckons immigrants can claim benefits.

    There must be squillions of lab supporters up and down the land like this. They would never vote tory and the lib dems are just more of the same. My gut tells me the labour poll share versus those who will vote for the party in the euros bear absolutely no relation to each other. Which is why I predicted labour will come third.
  • Mr. Vale, doesn't the UKIP leaflet have photos of all the main leaders?

    Indeed it does. At least Labour had the guts to feature Miliband prominently despite him not being particularly popular.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2014

    Mr. Anorak, sad to see she's being indoctrinated, although that is an amusing conversation.

    Mr. Eagles, I trust there will be at least one reference to classical history?

    Well it's a major issue and she's been taught the view of an overwhelming proportion of scientists, so I'm not too fussed. To do otherwise would be akin to agreeing with the "teach the controversy" New Earth Creationists, and their approach to evolution in schools.

    My highly-tuned antennae tell me you may not agree...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Mr. Anorak, sad to see she's being indoctrinated, although that is an amusing conversation.

    Mr. Eagles, I trust there will be at least one reference to classical history?

    Alas no.

    I did get a reference in about Phalanx in last night's thread, given the Greek chat earlier in the day, which I hope you approved of
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    So what's people's thoughts on turnout? Given the lack of engagement I'm seeing I think it will be sub 35%.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    taffys said:

    The teachers spend more time with these children than the rest,"

    There was also the labour voter who lost out on her pension because she took time off to look after her kids, whilst she reckons immigrants can claim benefits.

    There must be squillions of lab supporters up and down the land like this. They would never vote tory and the lib dems are just more of the same. My gut tells me the labour poll share versus those who will vote for the party in the euros bear absolutely no relation to each other. Which is why I predicted labour will come third.

    Polling firms that major on who voted for which party in 2010 GE will underestimate UKIP and overestimate Labour that is almost certain IMO
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    ...indicates prejudice against him purely because he is a Conservative.

    As a digression to this discussion, it's a well-established fact of human psychology that the brain frequently uses cognitive shortcuts to make judgements more quickly, sacrificing a degree of accuracy for speed and efficiency.

    Generally speaking, these cognitive shortcuts work pretty well and you can see them on all sides of political debate. However, they do make political debate rather difficult, because it means that the debate is very rarely about the specifics of the issue at hand, but is about people's different cognitive shortcuts, that have been formed over many years of [differing] experience.

    In essence I do not trust IDS and I do not trust him because he is a Tory. Now I can dress this up by pointing to details that reinforce this prejudice - the proposal to charge for appealing against DWP decisions that seems to have been floated because too many of the appeals were successful, etc, but I can admit that it is essentially a prejudice that it would take a lot of contrary evidence to overcome.

    I don't feel ashamed of holding this prejudice, and it's not one that is directed uniquely at Tories - the New Labour record on welfare reform is little different in my opinion according to my prejudices - and I feel that my prejudice is justified in the light of the information available to me.

    The point I am making is that if I enter into a debate about IDS's welfare reforms with you, we are mostly going to be talking indirectly about our respective prejudices, rather than about the abstract policy detail.
    Surely, here more than anywhere, we should be able to rise above our political prejudices? If I'm betting on politics, I'd be a fool to let my base anti-LD contempt, my irrational distrust of Labourites or my unconscious snobbery towards UKIP cloud my judgement.

    I take your point about cognitive shortcutting, and I accept that we often will see what we want to see and fail to hear what we do not want to hear. However, I think we can discuss policy issues without suggesting the other side cannot see the reality around them; our differences are around dealing with that reality, priorities and policies.
    I would like to think so, but I've been a regular on pb.com for a long time and it rarely happens.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    saddened said:

    If you're going to be offensive, go big.

    http://order-order.com/2014/05/20/labour-silent-over-councillors-holocaust-tweet/

    Impressively ill considered.

    I cannot see that the camp in the picture is specifically a concentration camp or an extermination camp sensu Final Solution. It could be any old prison camp sensu any POW escape movie.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    isam said:

    taffys said:

    The teachers spend more time with these children than the rest,"

    There was also the labour voter who lost out on her pension because she took time off to look after her kids, whilst she reckons immigrants can claim benefits.

    There must be squillions of lab supporters up and down the land like this. They would never vote tory and the lib dems are just more of the same. My gut tells me the labour poll share versus those who will vote for the party in the euros bear absolutely no relation to each other. Which is why I predicted labour will come third.

    Polling firms that major on who voted for which party in 2010 GE will underestimate UKIP and overestimate Labour that is almost certain IMO
    Provided new converts to UKIP do not misremember their 2010 vote and erroneously tell the pollsters that they have been a long-term supporter of UKIP, then it will not provide a problem for the pollsters. Past-vote weighting would still work.

    It's the pollsters who use party ID weighting that I would worry about more.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Carnyx said:

    saddened said:

    If you're going to be offensive, go big.

    http://order-order.com/2014/05/20/labour-silent-over-councillors-holocaust-tweet/

    Impressively ill considered.

    I cannot see that the camp in the picture is specifically a concentration camp or an extermination camp sensu Final Solution. It could be any old prison camp sensu any POW escape movie.

    It certainly looks like a labour camp, of some sort. It's funny, but a pretty sick joke.

  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Carnyx said:

    saddened said:

    If you're going to be offensive, go big.

    http://order-order.com/2014/05/20/labour-silent-over-councillors-holocaust-tweet/

    Impressively ill considered.

    I cannot see that the camp in the picture is specifically a concentration camp or an extermination camp sensu Final Solution. It could be any old prison camp sensu any POW escape movie.

    Yes, It's a prison camp, it's no way offensive to suggest "Eton old boys" policy is to put the disabled in a "prison camp" surrounded by watch towers. Facepalm etc.

  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391

    ...indicates prejudice against him purely because he is a Conservative.

    As a digression to this discussion, it's a well-established fact of human psychology that the brain frequently uses cognitive shortcuts to make judgements more quickly, sacrificing a degree of accuracy for speed and efficiency.

    Generally speaking, these cognitive shortcuts work pretty well and you can see them on all sides of political debate. However, they do make political debate rather difficult, because it means that the debate is very rarely about the specifics of the issue at hand, but is about people's different cognitive shortcuts, that have been formed over many years of [differing] experience.

    In essence I do not trust IDS and I do not trust him because he is a Tory. Now I can dress this up by pointing to details that reinforce this prejudice - the proposal to charge for appealing against DWP decisions that seems to have been floated because too many of the appeals were successful, etc, but I can admit that it is essentially a prejudice that it would take a lot of contrary evidence to overcome.

    I don't feel ashamed of holding this prejudice, and it's not one that is directed uniquely at Tories - the New Labour record on welfare reform is little different in my opinion according to my prejudices - and I feel that my prejudice is justified in the light of the information available to me.

    The point I am making is that if I enter into a debate about IDS's welfare reforms with you, we are mostly going to be talking indirectly about our respective prejudices, rather than about the abstract policy detail.
    Surely, here more than anywhere, we should be able to rise above our political prejudices? If I'm betting on politics, I'd be a fool to let my base anti-LD contempt, my irrational distrust of Labourites or my unconscious snobbery towards UKIP cloud my judgement.

    I take your point about cognitive shortcutting, and I accept that we often will see what we want to see and fail to hear what we do not want to hear. However, I think we can discuss policy issues without suggesting the other side cannot see the reality around them; our differences are around dealing with that reality, priorities and policies.
    I would like to think so, but I've been a regular on pb.com for a long time and it rarely happens.
    'We' referred solely to you and me. :)
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "The point I am making is that if I enter into a debate about IDS's welfare reforms with you, we are mostly going to be talking indirectly about our respective prejudices, rather than about the abstract policy detail."

    Which makes most of political debate with most people completely futile, because it isn't a debate just a clash of prejudices. Of course another name for a person who hangs onto their own views regardless of any evidence is bigot.

    However, there are some people, albeit a minority, who try and overcome their prejudices they are worth talking to and learning from. In my experience such people tend to be found more in the older age group as they have lost the certainty of youth.

    Very few politicians seem to fit into that category but one who did, and I suspect it was the real reason for his downfall, was John Hutton, the former Labour MP and Secretary of State for Defence. In his interview on the wireless with Eddie Mair (surely the best bit of political interviewing in modern times) Hutton explained how he had moved from a unthinking tribal Labour MP to someone who stopped labelling people and started to accept that someone whose ideas were different from his own may actually have just as good a motivation as he did and something useful to say. We could seriously do with more people like Hutton in public life and on this board.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Was that Welsh poll ever published?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    ToryJim said:

    So what's people's thoughts on turnout? Given the lack of engagement I'm seeing I think it will be sub 35%.

    I think higher. Paddy Power have a market.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Anorak, you perceptive fellow you ;)

    Mr. Eagles, I'm afraid I missed that.

    Mr. Llama, you're quite correct. It's a damned shame that Hutton wasn't Defence Secretary longer, and Des Browne/Bob Ainsworth for less time.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    ToryJim said:

    So what's people's thoughts on turnout? Given the lack of engagement I'm seeing I think it will be sub 35%.

    I think higher. Paddy Power have a market.
    European Elections Turnout

    Applies to BBC confirmed figures for UK-wide turnout in the 2014 European elections. Must be announced by end June 2014. PP decision final.

    29% or under 13/2
    29.01 to 34% 15/8
    34.01 to 39% 13/8
    39.01 to 44% 11/4
    Over 44% 7/2

  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    Comparing the latest competition predictions with Ladbrokes vote share lines, the biggest difference is the 26.39% overall average guess for UKIP compared to our over/under line of 28%.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    My prediction:

    Con - 22.1%
    Lab - 23.1%
    LD - 7.2%
    UKIP - 24.5%
    Green - 9.8 %
    SNP - 2.9%
    Plaid - 0.8%
    BNP - 1.5%
    AIFE - 1.8%
    Other - 6.3%
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Each and every set of party supporters is more optimistic in aggregate for its party than the average for that party among all respondents.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    OK, I've succumbed: £25 at 7/4 on Lutfur Rahman in Tower Hamlets. Those odds are just too tempting.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    ToryJim said:

    So what's people's thoughts on turnout? Given the lack of engagement I'm seeing I think it will be sub 35%.

    I think higher. Paddy Power have a market.
    European Elections Turnout

    Applies to BBC confirmed figures for UK-wide turnout in the 2014 European elections. Must be announced by end June 2014. PP decision final.

    29% or under 13/2
    29.01 to 34% 15/8
    34.01 to 39% 13/8
    39.01 to 44% 11/4
    Over 44% 7/2

    I'd prefer a higher/lower market.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    antifrank said:

    Each and every set of party supporters is more optimistic in aggregate for its party than the average for that party among all respondents.

    Bears defecate in woods, pope catholic, etc.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    antifrank said:

    Each and every set of party supporters is more optimistic in aggregate for its party than the average for that party among all respondents.

    Mine on the Tories was lower than any of the averages. Make of that what you will.

    I went for: Ukip 27.7%, Lab 23.7%, Con 21.3%, Green 9.3%, LD 6.2%, AIFE 0.9%

    OblitusSumMe's post upthread makes me think I might have been a bit low on AIFE, but we shall see.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    I went for: Ukip 27.7%, Lab 23.7%, Con 21.3%, Green 9.3%, LD 6.2%, AIFE 0.9%

    Uncanny...

    UKIP 27.8%, Lab 26.2%, Con 21.3%, Green 9.0%, LD 6.7%, AIFE 2.2%
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    saddened said:

    Carnyx said:

    saddened said:

    If you're going to be offensive, go big.

    http://order-order.com/2014/05/20/labour-silent-over-councillors-holocaust-tweet/

    Impressively ill considered.

    I cannot see that the camp in the picture is specifically a concentration camp or an extermination camp sensu Final Solution. It could be any old prison camp sensu any POW escape movie.

    Yes, It's a prison camp, it's no way offensive to suggest "Eton old boys" policy is to put the disabled in a "prison camp" surrounded by watch towers. Facepalm etc.

    Oh, I quite agree!

    But to link it to the holocaust is overusing the latter (not least because of the involvement of the disabled in that). All the same, it is foolish and worse to use even the more limited version when it is so easily misunderstood, deliberately or otherwise.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    OK, I've succumbed: £25 at 7/4 on Lutfur Rahman in Tower Hamlets. Those odds are just too tempting.

    Yes, I took the same view. I've also taken the plunge and gone "under" for An Independence From Europe, since I share Nick Palmer's and your view of the matter. I see that the consensus, however, is "over".
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    antifrank said:

    Each and every set of party supporters is more optimistic in aggregate for its party than the average for that party among all respondents.

    Kippers do appear to be 3-4% more optimistic than the average other parties less so.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    Was that Welsh poll ever published?

    Yes, it's up on the Yougov website. The figures were Labour 33% (up 11% on 2009), UKIP 23% (up 10%), Plaid 16% (down 3%) Conservative 15% (down 6%).

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The figures were Labour 33% (up 11% on 2009), UKIP 23% (up 10%), Plaid 16% (down 3%) Conservative 15% (down 6%).

    Welsh people clearly like rising council taxes and third world health and education services at first world prices.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2014
    Sean_F said:

    Was that Welsh poll ever published?

    Yes, it's up on the Yougov website. The figures were Labour 33% (up 11% on 2009), UKIP 23% (up 10%), Plaid 16% (down 3%) Conservative 15% (down 6%).

    that doesn't look right Labour and UKIP up 21% (collectively) and Plaid and Cons down 9%. Where is the missing "down 12%"?

    EDIT: Oh, yeah. Obviously. *slinks off in embarrassment*
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2014
    Homerism ratings in percentage points and as a % of base.

    Greens 1.52pp (+20.3%)
    UKIP 4.42pp (+16.7%)
    LD 1.01pp (+12.7%)
    Lab 1.87pp (+7.3%)
    Con 1.14pp (+4.9%)

    However this is to be expected as there are doubtless more Tories completing the survey than Greens, so the Tory overall average will be pulled towards their own view. Someone with more time than me can probably work out what the G.E. VI proportions are.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:
    Losing out of wages doesn't make it a tax so I don't like the title but well done for writing it and getting it published.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    isam said:
    It's very good indeed.

    You've been a bit economical with the truth in not taking account of differences in cost of living in the UK compared with (say) Bulgaria, but we'll forgive you that slight Cleggism.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:
    Losing out of wages doesn't make it a tax so I don't like the title but well done for writing it and getting it published.

    I thought "Stealth" made the distiction... but thanks anyway


  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @isam You very neatly show how so many English non-workers think that the world owes them a living. I enjoyed the article, though I disagree with much of it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:
    Losing out of wages doesn't make it a tax so I don't like the title but well done for writing it and getting it published.

    I thought "Stealth" made the distiction... but thanks anyway


    If I get demoted and have my wages cut it's not any sort of tax but now veering into pedantshire..
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    isam said:

    Not bad, not bad at all :)

    I was tempted to write "First" in the comments - but I've forgotten my Disqus login!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Rentoul tweeting an new TNS poll

    @JohnRentoul: TNS BMRB Euro Parl poll LAB 28% (+1), UKIP 31% (-5), CON 21% (+3), LIB DEM 7% (-3) Change since 30 April
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    TGOHF said:

    Rentoul tweeting an new TNS poll

    @JohnRentoul: TNS BMRB Euro Parl poll LAB 28% (+1), UKIP 31% (-5), CON 21% (+3), LIB DEM 7% (-3) Change since 30 April

    LIB DEM 7%

    I think I'll wet myself laughing if they go that low on Thursday.

    Where is Sissy Senior when you want him?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    TGOHF said:

    Rentoul tweeting an new TNS poll

    @JohnRentoul: TNS BMRB Euro Parl poll LAB 28% (+1), UKIP 31% (-5), CON 21% (+3), LIB DEM 7% (-3) Change since 30 April

    That just leaves Survation. The most recent polls are (top three only):-

    Com Res: UKIP 33%, Labour 27%, Con 20%;

    Opinium: UKIP 31%, Labour 29%, Con 20%;

    TNS: UKIP 31%, Labour 28%, Con 21%;

    Yougov: Labour 28%, UKIP 24%, Con 21%, but among those certain to vote UKIP 29%, Labour 25%, Con 19%.

    Given that the first three weight their top-line figures by likelihood to vote, the pollsters are now in very similar territory.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    TGOHF said:

    Rentoul tweeting an new TNS poll

    @JohnRentoul: TNS BMRB Euro Parl poll LAB 28% (+1), UKIP 31% (-5), CON 21% (+3), LIB DEM 7% (-3) Change since 30 April

    LIB DEM 7%

    I think I'll wet myself laughing if they go that low on Thursday.

    Where is Sissy Senior when you want him?
    The Opinium/Mail poll gave the LDs 5%.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2633226/Britain-heard-appalling-Ukip-says-Cameron-Prime-Minister-launches-scathing-attack-rival-partys-politics-anger.html
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Sean_F said:

    Was that Welsh poll ever published?

    Yes, it's up on the Yougov website. The figures were Labour 33% (up 11% on 2009), UKIP 23% (up 10%), Plaid 16% (down 3%) Conservative 15% (down 6%).

    Great. Thanks.

    What a stunning UKIP performance if they are anywhere near +10 points.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    edited May 2014
    delete
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167
    The TNS isn't too far off from my prediction!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    isam said:
    Excellent work. I agree with nearly all of it.

    To moan about this being a "stealth tax" when the spare room subsidy is allegedly a tax seems perverse. The point it makes about the middle and upper classes benefitting from the immigration of cheap labour and frankly ignoring the consequences for the poor or less skilled is spot on and is a point not made nearly often enough.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    TGOHF said:

    Rentoul tweeting an new TNS poll

    @JohnRentoul: TNS BMRB Euro Parl poll LAB 28% (+1), UKIP 31% (-5), CON 21% (+3), LIB DEM 7% (-3) Change since 30 April

    LIB DEM 7%

    I think I'll wet myself laughing if they go that low on Thursday.

    Where is Sissy Senior when you want him?
    The Opinium/Mail poll gave the LDs 5%.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2633226/Britain-heard-appalling-Ukip-says-Cameron-Prime-Minister-launches-scathing-attack-rival-partys-politics-anger.html
    LIB DEM 5% ??

    That'd be funnier than an old Frankie Howerd video.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    Rentoul tweeting an new TNS poll

    @JohnRentoul: TNS BMRB Euro Parl poll LAB 28% (+1), UKIP 31% (-5), CON 21% (+3), LIB DEM 7% (-3) Change since 30 April

    That just leaves Survation. The most recent polls are (top three only):-

    Com Res: UKIP 33%, Labour 27%, Con 20%;

    Opinium: UKIP 31%, Labour 29%, Con 20%;

    TNS: UKIP 31%, Labour 28%, Con 21%;

    Yougov: Labour 28%, UKIP 24%, Con 21%, but among those certain to vote UKIP 29%, Labour 25%, Con 19%.

    Given that the first three weight their top-line figures by likelihood to vote, the pollsters are now in very similar territory.

    You've got to think that UKIP/Labour/Tories would take any of those results.

    My guess is that Labour will under-perform, though, and will probably be closer to 20% than 30%.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    TGOHF said:

    Rentoul tweeting an new TNS poll

    @JohnRentoul: TNS BMRB Euro Parl poll LAB 28% (+1), UKIP 31% (-5), CON 21% (+3), LIB DEM 7% (-3) Change since 30 April

    LIB DEM 7%

    I think I'll wet myself laughing if they go that low on Thursday.

    Where is Sissy Senior when you want him?
    The Opinium/Mail poll gave the LDs 5%.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2633226/Britain-heard-appalling-Ukip-says-Cameron-Prime-Minister-launches-scathing-attack-rival-partys-politics-anger.html
    LIB DEM 5% ??

    That'd be funnier than an old Frankie Howerd video.

    I don't think they'll do that badly. 4 seats is still the likeliest outcome for the Lib Dems, IMHO.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    My prediction:

    Tory - 25%

    Labour - 23%

    LD - 8%

    UKIP - 29%

    Greens - 9%

    Swivel-eyed loon - 0.5%
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:
    It's very good indeed.

    You've been a bit economical with the truth in not taking account of differences in cost of living in the UK compared with (say) Bulgaria, but we'll forgive you that slight Cleggism.
    Thanks Richard.

    Yes I agree that is a moot point.. my argument would be if I were being paid £47 an hour abroad I would happily live in a worse place/share with others/drink tinnies from the off license instead of going to the pub in order to save for when I go home. Didnt have the space to fit that in, and I guess the point is to provoke discussion.. hasnt provoked much though ha!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    DavidL said:

    isam said:
    Excellent work. I agree with nearly all of it.

    To moan about this being a "stealth tax" when the spare room subsidy is allegedly a tax seems perverse. The point it makes about the middle and upper classes benefitting from the immigration of cheap labour and frankly ignoring the consequences for the poor or less skilled is spot on and is a point not made nearly often enough.

    Thanks David
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Not bad, not bad at all :)

    I was tempted to write "First" in the comments - but I've forgotten my Disqus login!
    Try and remember it!!!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Probably a daft question – but how many candidates are AIFE standing at the Euros, pls.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    isam said:

    Not bad, not bad at all :)

    I was tempted to write "First" in the comments - but I've forgotten my Disqus login!
    Sunil,

    Very fair. A couple near me who are Romanian - her good worker - him not so good, reckon that in 3 years they can save enough from UK earnings to build their own house in Romania.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    I ruminated yesterday about this claim on the Sunday Politics that the Libs are "very resilient". What on earth will it take to destroy them if not a routing in the next two national elections (which now looks very likely)?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    isam said:
    VG. A well deserved and delivered kick in the balls for the charlatancy.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    ToryJim said:

    So what's people's thoughts on turnout? Given the lack of engagement I'm seeing I think it will be sub 35%.

    I think higher. Paddy Power have a market.
    European Elections Turnout

    Applies to BBC confirmed figures for UK-wide turnout in the 2014 European elections. Must be announced by end June 2014. PP decision final.

    29% or under 13/2
    29.01 to 34% 15/8
    34.01 to 39% 13/8
    39.01 to 44% 11/4
    Over 44% 7/2

    I'd prefer a higher/lower market.

    Totally agree. These "band" markets are a bookie ruse to separate unwary punters from their cash.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    isam said:
    It's a very good, well argued piece. Some questions:

    1. Don't we all benefit from prices (and taxes) being lower than they would otherwise be if there were no immigrants doing low paid jobs?
    2. Don't we all benefit from the competition that a greater provision of certain services - plumbers, electricians, builders etc - will bring in terms of quality of work and service?
    3. Given you believe that the unemployed and the low paid are largely the victims of immigration, would you be opposed to any further cuts in welfare spending?
    4. What happens when we leave the EU? Will wages rise dramatically?

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    BobaFett said:

    I ruminated yesterday about this claim on the Sunday Politics that the Libs are "very resilient". What on earth will it take to destroy them if not a routing in the next two national elections (which now looks very likely)?

    The LibDems have played an honorable role in putting the country back on its feet after Labour's catastrophic 13-year occupation. It's Labour that merits electoral obliteration.

  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    taffys said:

    The figures were Labour 33% (up 11% on 2009), UKIP 23% (up 10%), Plaid 16% (down 3%) Conservative 15% (down 6%).

    Which would give Lab 2 seats (+1) UKIP 1 seat (nc) Plaid 1 seat (nc) Cons nil (oops) LD nil (again)...

    But 4th seat very close between Plaid & Cons, and could even go to Lab


  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Liked that blog @Isam. My question though is whether would rise in these jobs enough to attract Brits, were the immigrants not here.
    Look at the retail sector - dismal wages for shop girls since the year dot, yet notorious for carrying a shed load of vacancies at any one time (especially in London).
    You would think that they would address this by offering better pay and conditions, yet many major chains offer awful of both, and the chronic understaffing continues .
    Most shop girls get paid less than street cleaners.
  • NextNext Posts: 826

    isam said:
    It's a very good, well argued piece. Some questions:

    1. Don't we all benefit from prices (and taxes) being lower than they would otherwise be if there were no immigrants doing low paid jobs?
    2. Don't we all benefit from the competition that a greater provision of certain services - plumbers, electricians, builders etc - will bring in terms of quality of work and service?
    3. Given you believe that the unemployed and the low paid are largely the victims of immigration, would you be opposed to any further cuts in welfare spending?
    4. What happens when we leave the EU? Will wages rise dramatically?

    The "other side of the coin" to immigration reducing wages in the UK, is importing cheaper goods from China. One applies to goods and one to services.

    Therefore those that oppose immigration because of lowering wages should also be asking for import controls on goods as well.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Financier said:

    isam said:

    Not bad, not bad at all :)

    I was tempted to write "First" in the comments - but I've forgotten my Disqus login!
    Sunil,

    Very fair. A couple near me who are Romanian - her good worker - him not so good, reckon that in 3 years they can save enough from UK earnings to build their own house in Romania.
    Which means that pretty much anyone in the UK could do the same, they could work hard, save money, and build a house in Romania.

    Immigration is only really a problem if its not being balanced by emigration. The British used to be very enthusiastic at emigrating to places. What has changed?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    A lot of stores have zero contracts so their employees cannot budget from one week to the next.
    BobaFett said:

    Liked that blog @Isam. My question though is whether would rise in these jobs enough to attract Brits, were the immigrants not here.
    Look at the retail sector - dismal wages for shop girls since the year dot, yet notorious for carrying a shed load of vacancies at any one time (especially in London).
    You would think that they would address this by offering better pay and conditions, yet many major chains offer awful of both, and the chronic understaffing continues .
    Most shop girls get paid less than street cleaners.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Independent: Miliband calls politicians out of touch in TV interview - then has no idea how much he spends on his own weekly shop http://t.co/tk8b5f5ZPk

    @sirlodsworth: Ed Miliband should offer a personal shopper service. The cost of living crisis would be fixed in an instant.

    #muppet

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    I ruminated yesterday about this claim on the Sunday Politics that the Libs are "very resilient". What on earth will it take to destroy them if not a routing in the next two national elections (which now looks very likely)?

    The LibDems have played an honorable role in putting the country back on its feet after Labour's catastrophic 13-year occupation. It's Labour that merits electoral obliteration.

    Yes I'm aware of the nonsense you spout every day. But what about the question I asked?

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    BobaFett said:

    I ruminated yesterday about this claim on the Sunday Politics that the Libs are "very resilient". What on earth will it take to destroy them if not a routing in the next two national elections (which now looks very likely)?

    I don't know why you or anyone else would want to see the Liberal Democrats "destroyed" but a quick history lesson will underline the Party's capacity for survival. In 1951, the Liberal Party won 2.5% of the vote and 6 seats and in 1970 the party won 6 seats on just 7.5% of the vote.

    In the 1950s and 1970s, the party had barely 100 Councillors nationally but still survived. UKIP curently has 220 Councillors and no one suggests hey are finished.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    saddened said:

    If you're going to be offensive, go big.

    http://order-order.com/2014/05/20/labour-silent-over-councillors-holocaust-tweet/

    Impressively ill considered.

    Clearly a disgusting Tweet, but my natural reaction is that parties have thousands and thousands of councillors, and any one might say stupid things.

    However, given the fact that the media have decided in the case of UKIP to give these sorts of tweets full articles in national newspapers, its circulated in editorials as examples of what the party believes, and the party leader is then questioned about the ugliness in his party, I'm sure they'll be doing the same in this case.

    Either that or journalists for the Guardian, Standard, Independent etc are massive hypocrites that are a disgrace to journalism, and prefer to be partisan shills rather than men of intellectual honesty.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    BobaFett said:

    Liked that blog @Isam. My question though is whether would rise in these jobs enough to attract Brits, were the immigrants not here.
    Look at the retail sector - dismal wages for shop girls since the year dot, yet notorious for carrying a shed load of vacancies at any one time (especially in London).
    You would think that they would address this by offering better pay and conditions, yet many major chains offer awful of both, and the chronic understaffing continues .
    Most shop girls get paid less than street cleaners.


    Its noteworthy that for the last year, the retail, hotel and restaurant sector has seen the highest rate of earnings growth of all sectors - 3.2% vs 1.8% for the private sector as a whole.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Immigration is only really a problem if its not being balanced by emigration.

    So if thirty million Brits emigrated next year, and they were replaced with thirty million Somalis and Congolese, there wouldn't be any problems associated with that?

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Isam's blog plays into Carney's comment about the economy still having a good deal of slack.

    When you have access to a large pool of labour, the potentiality of the economy to grow without inflation is much higher than it used to be.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Scott_P said:

    @Independent: Miliband calls politicians out of touch in TV interview - then has no idea how much he spends on his own weekly shop http://t.co/tk8b5f5ZPk

    @sirlodsworth: Ed Miliband should offer a personal shopper service. The cost of living crisis would be fixed in an instant.

    #muppet

    I have some sympathy when politicians don't know the price of individual items, but surely everyone knows how much the total on the supermarket bill tends to be?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited May 2014
    Ed shows what intellectual self-confidence means:

    But he was put on the spot about how much it really costs to feed a family of four. Asked about the average weekly household grocery bill, Mr Miliband responded: ‘It depends on how much you are spending.’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2633679/Miliband-accused-touch-reality-saying-spends-just-80-weekly-shop-average-100.html#ixzz32G5cbtBH

    And you have to hand it to the Mail: their ability to choose photos to make politicians look stupid is second to none.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Looking at the Aldi website in Romania, things do not look much cheaper than they are here.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:
    It's a very good, well argued piece. Some questions:

    1. Don't we all benefit from prices (and taxes) being lower than they would otherwise be if there were no immigrants doing low paid jobs?
    2. Don't we all benefit from the competition that a greater provision of certain services - plumbers, electricians, builders etc - will bring in terms of quality of work and service?
    3. Given you believe that the unemployed and the low paid are largely the victims of immigration, would you be opposed to any further cuts in welfare spending?
    4. What happens when we leave the EU? Will wages rise dramatically?

    Thanks.

    I will try and answer..

    1. Are prices lower? I though inflation had been rising, hence the "cost of living crisis". I guess you would say that they would be higher still were it not for immigrants.

    2. I think my point is that certain people benefit and others suffer. Maybe on the whole as a coiuntry we benefit, but thats the party line that disguises the cost to the poorest.

    3. I think people that are unemploiyed (and this covers @BobaFett's question about shop girls) should be made to at least share a job (3 days a week?) that is on offer at the local job centre.That way the state doesnt have to pay them anything and they still have 3 days a week to look for the type of job they actually want.They be getting £150 a week and the govt would save £50 a week

    4. I would be guessing, but I think there would be a rise in pay for the lowest paid, and a reduction in profit for those at the top


  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    Rentoul tweeting an new TNS poll

    @JohnRentoul: TNS BMRB Euro Parl poll LAB 28% (+1), UKIP 31% (-5), CON 21% (+3), LIB DEM 7% (-3) Change since 30 April

    LIB DEM 7%

    I think I'll wet myself laughing if they go that low on Thursday.

    Where is Sissy Senior when you want him?
    The Opinium/Mail poll gave the LDs 5%.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2633226/Britain-heard-appalling-Ukip-says-Cameron-Prime-Minister-launches-scathing-attack-rival-partys-politics-anger.html
    LIB DEM 5% ??

    That'd be funnier than an old Frankie Howerd video.

    I don't think they'll do that badly. 4 seats is still the likeliest outcome for the Lib Dems, IMHO.

    Oh, but wouldn't it be wonderful if the "Party of In" lost EVERY seat in the European elections? I know it won't happen, but you can let us dream!
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Looking at the Aldi website in Romania, things do not look much cheaper than they are here.

    Maybe Aldi is a luxury brand in Romania.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Ed shows what intellectual self-confidence means:

    But he was put on the spot about how much it really costs to feed a family of four. Asked about the average weekly household grocery bill, Mr Miliband responded: ‘It depends on how much you are spending.’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2633679/Miliband-accused-touch-reality-saying-spends-just-80-weekly-shop-average-100.html#ixzz32G5cbtBH

    And you have to hand it to the Mail: their ability to choose photos to make politicians look stupid is second to none.

    I don't think it was the choice of photos that did it:

    https://mtc.cdn.vine.co/r/videos/7BD74A977A1080421146199048192_2c2251f6888.0.3.8027486095367531262.mp4
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @taffys

    If you have a large pool of labour that is either fully paid, or heavily subsidised by the tax payer, while your company pays practically no tax, things are even better.
    You could even invest the money saved in housing for rent at a higher return than investing it in your own business (you get a grant for that instead), things are stupendous.
    Minor problem being if tax payers realise this, they might get annoyed, but they are way to stupid, and busy blaming everyone else.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited May 2014
    Socrates said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Independent: Miliband calls politicians out of touch in TV interview - then has no idea how much he spends on his own weekly shop http://t.co/tk8b5f5ZPk

    @sirlodsworth: Ed Miliband should offer a personal shopper service. The cost of living crisis would be fixed in an instant.

    #muppet

    I have some sympathy when politicians don't know the price of individual items, but surely everyone knows how much the total on the supermarket bill tends to be?
    The real question is, how much more than the average does Miliband's weekly shop cost? A household with a substantial six figure income will not be skimping on treats. Perhaps Ed is wary of revealing the truth?
  • JonathanD said:

    BobaFett said:

    Liked that blog @Isam. My question though is whether would rise in these jobs enough to attract Brits, were the immigrants not here.
    Look at the retail sector - dismal wages for shop girls since the year dot, yet notorious for carrying a shed load of vacancies at any one time (especially in London).
    You would think that they would address this by offering better pay and conditions, yet many major chains offer awful of both, and the chronic understaffing continues .
    Most shop girls get paid less than street cleaners.

    Its noteworthy that for the last year, the retail, hotel and restaurant sector has seen the highest rate of earnings growth of all sectors - 3.2% vs 1.8% for the private sector as a whole.
    I know a person in one of the agencies who is now working 100% on getting unemployed UK people into catering jobs. The clampdowns from the current Govt are starting to benefit UK people. The person moans about it being tougher than hiring from outside the UK, but it supports your facts about wage growth.

    (Posted by an anti-Osborne, pro YES chap).
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    This site would benefit from a Romanian poster :)
    Socrates said:

    Looking at the Aldi website in Romania, things do not look much cheaper than they are here.

    Maybe Aldi is a luxury brand in Romania.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited May 2014
    Mr Miliband later admitted that his shopping estimate may have been on the low side, saying he had been thinking of the bill for 'basic groceries'.

    Keep digging Ed...The average figure thrown at him was for exactly that, not for extras, for booze, etc. I would have much more respect if politicians just owned up when caught out like this, and they all do it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ok, I have some sympathy with Ed for this one, but it's still funny

    @CCHQPress: Car crash Miliband interview: ‘But he’s not the leader of the Council is he?’ 2hr2mins50secs: http://t.co/YOd7npZmqT . @labourpress fail
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Mr Miliband later admitted that his shopping estimate may have been on the low side, saying he had been thinking of the bill for 'basic groceries'.

    Keep digging Ed...The average figure thrown at him was for exactly that, not for extras, for booze, etc.

    No, the new line is that figure is only for "fruit and veg"

    Are they vegans?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167
    Socrates said:

    Looking at the Aldi website in Romania, things do not look much cheaper than they are here.

    Maybe Aldi is a luxury brand in Romania.
    It is on Teesside!

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TCPoliticalBetting
    Another lucrative "business".
    Farming unemployed people into the lowest paid jobs in one of your friends business's, and not only does the tax payer get hit for the wages, the government even pays you for your effort.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited May 2014
    Scott_P said:

    Mr Miliband later admitted that his shopping estimate may have been on the low side, saying he had been thinking of the bill for 'basic groceries'.

    Keep digging Ed...The average figure thrown at him was for exactly that, not for extras, for booze, etc.

    No, the new line is that figure is only for "fruit and veg"

    Are they vegans?
    Maybe on the Juicing diet :-)

    Ed is getting a bit podgy these days. The Two Eds, Cameron and Clegg, could all do with it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    New thread.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    The honest answer would have been "I haven't the faintest clue how much we spend on groceries. Since Justine and I earn well over £350K between us, whatever we spend would be small change, frankly."
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    All hail the hotel and catering services, one of the biggest users of zero hours contracts, and best of all, the poor sods can't refuse them now.(actually they can at the moment, but this problem will be sorted in short order with the new guidelines)
    You have to love the "free" market.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Socrates said:

    Immigration is only really a problem if its not being balanced by emigration.

    So if thirty million Brits emigrated next year, and they were replaced with thirty million Somalis and Congolese, there wouldn't be any problems associated with that?
    That size of population movement would only occur if there were major problems, causing such dramatic population movements, so the question is absurd.
  • isam said:

    4. I would be guessing, but I think there would be a rise in pay for the lowest paid, and a reduction in profit for those at the top

    Taken to its logical extent, that argument means that if the size of the population of the United Kingdom fell to one, there would be a massive pay increase for those at the bottom, and a massive pay cut for those at the top. Whether it would be advisable is another matter altogether...
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    NEW THREAD
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If you have a large pool of labour that is either fully paid, or heavily subsidised by the tax payer, while your company pays practically no tax, things are even better.

    Agreed, but it sounds like you are arguing for the end of tax credits?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    ToryJim said:

    So what's people's thoughts on turnout? Given the lack of engagement I'm seeing I think it will be sub 35%.

    This campaign started with two televised debates, and the campaign/UKIP has dominated the news. Shouldn't turnout be higher than 2009 (34.7%)?

    http://www.ukpolitical.info/european-parliament-election-turnout.htm
This discussion has been closed.