politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes phone poll and ComRes and YouGov Euros polls all out
In recent days and especially today, it feels like a General Election campaign with a phalanx of polls, and it hard to work out what the polls mean with polls with markedly different results.
» show previous quotes I am really looking forward to the Indyref. If the vote is YES I can hope for greater chances of permanent Tory majority in Westminster. If the vote is NO then I will be pleased that the union has survived. So something to celebrate either way. But above all maybe we can hope that the miserable, whining Nats will shut up for a few years.
Farage should never have gone on the hunt for Labour votes, he broke the "my enemy's enemy is my friend" rule that Labour and the media used for not attacking him. Before he only had the Tory establishment against him now he has everyone against him. I don't know if he can still revert to the old strategy that worked of being an opposition to the government, instead of being an opposition to the opposition.
Anecdotal evidence I know with all the usual caveats but found several voters tonight who said broadly the same thing that everyone treats the euro elections as a joke. Having said that a couple of people said they'd been intending to vote UKIP but were no longer sure. Other then that the usual churn and Tory vote holding up better than expected. Interesting.
Farage should never have gone on the hunt for Labour votes, he broke the "my enemy's enemy is my friend" rule that Labour and the media used for not attacking him. Before he only had the Tory establishment against him now he has everyone against him. I don't know if he can still revert to the old strategy that worked of being an opposition to the government, instead of being an opposition to the opposition.
Yep, Labour and the Tories working in unison to destroy UKIP and maybe succeeding....
Speedy Indeed, Nick Robinson had it in for him tonight on deeper spending cuts and potential privatisations of the NHS. But many Old Labour voters will still protest and vote UKIP for the Euros over immigration and Europe
Farage should never have gone on the hunt for Labour votes, he broke the "my enemy's enemy is my friend" rule that Labour and the media used for not attacking him. Before he only had the Tory establishment against him now he has everyone against him. I don't know if he can still revert to the old strategy that worked of being an opposition to the government, instead of being an opposition to the opposition.
Yep, Labour and the Tories working in unison to destroy UKIP and maybe succeeding....
? It's a margin of error change in one day's YouGov.
Farage should never have gone on the hunt for Labour votes, he broke the "my enemy's enemy is my friend" rule that Labour and the media used for not attacking him. Before he only had the Tory establishment against him now he has everyone against him. I don't know if he can still revert to the old strategy that worked of being an opposition to the government, instead of being an opposition to the opposition.
Yep, Labour and the Tories working in unison to destroy UKIP and maybe succeeding....
I doubt it. I give UKIP some credit for seriously going after the Labour vote though - they could have taken the easy route and kept their reputation as Tories for people who don't like Cameron (not that they have entirely lost that reputation), but they wanted to really capture the entire disaffected voter spectrum, and went for it.
I'm hearing from my insiders in Sutton tonight that the LDs are in near panic abt their loss of vote to. UKIP. Their strategy of attacking UKIP has had precisely the opposite effect that they intended and is driving undecideds straight into their arms..well done. Cleggy
I'm hearing from my insiders in Sutton tonight that the LDs are in near panic abt their loss of vote to. UKIP. Their strategy of attacking UKIP has had precisely the opposite effect that they intended and is driving undecideds straight into their arms..well done. Cleggy
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn · 31 mins ...but, on those certain to vote in euros: UKIP top but Libs still 5th. UKIP 29%, LAB 25%, CON 19%, GRN 12%, LD 10%.
Is there any evidence that Ukip are slipping as Tom Newton Dunn says? My sense is that there has been little movement, when you smooth out the admittedly erratic polling.
TSE? Would you be worried about these Romulans moving next door?
Yeah, 'cause the Romulans are sneaky duplicitous bastards, as any Trek fan will tell you.
One of my more geekier moments in my life was when I said John Redwood was more of a Romulan, not a Vulcan as the Vulcans are in favour of a United Federation of differing nations, whereas the Romulans want to destroy said Federation.
So the avowed Eurosceptic Redwood had be a Romulan
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn · 31 mins ...but, on those certain to vote in euros: UKIP top but Libs still 5th. UKIP 29%, LAB 25%, CON 19%, GRN 12%, LD 10%.
Is there any evidence that Ukip are slipping as Tom Newton Dunn says? My sense is that there has been little movement, when you smooth out the admittedly erratic polling.
It's their lowest YouGov rating in a fair while, but it is only one poll.
Is there any evidence that Ukip are slipping as Tom Newton Dunn says? My sense is that there has been little movement, when you smooth out the admittedly erratic polling.
No. UKIP are up 2% with Com Res, 1% with Populus. Down 2% with Yougov, 1% with Ashcroft. MOE stuff.
Among those certain to vote, they're 29% with Yougov, 33% with Com Res.
From previous thread - Labour should be very careful or this could seriously backfire this time next week. If UKIP top the ballot and do well in Labour areas then the question is going to be "How badly are Labour doing, Ms Cooper, if you are losing to a racist party in your own back yard?"
If UKIP come 3rd next week, then the story will be the bubble has burst (although UKIP will still be able to point to likely record national vote share). If Lab or Con come 3rd then prepare for media meltdown
O/T - I spent the weekend in Dublin where like us they have local as well as Euro elections. There are huge numbers of posters up on every lamp post. As the Irish have open list rather than closed list for the Euros there are multiple posters for each party with different candidates.
The view in the press is that of the current coalition Fine Gael will hold up reasonably well while Labour will take a hammering. One of the austerity measures introduced has been charges for water (this is currently free!) The Socialists have dubbed this in their posters the Water Tax (another poster also had "Cost of living crisis!"). The previous incumbents of Fianna Fail and the Greens are not expected to see any gain although Fianna Fail may hold their current seats. The big winners are expected to be Sinn Fein who are not tainted by government and are I think the most EU sceptic party in Ireland
Is there any evidence that Ukip are slipping as Tom Newton Dunn says? My sense is that there has been little movement, when you smooth out the admittedly erratic polling.
No. UKIP are up 2% with Com Res, 1% with Populus. Down 2% with Yougov, 1% with Ashcroft. MOE stuff.
Among those certain to vote, they're 29% with Yougov, 33% with Com Res.
I'd say they've come down from the week or so after the debates, when they seemed to peak.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn · 31 mins ...but, on those certain to vote in euros: UKIP top but Libs still 5th. UKIP 29%, LAB 25%, CON 19%, GRN 12%, LD 10%.
12% would be a super result for the Greens. They only got 8% in 2009.
Is there any evidence that Ukip are slipping as Tom Newton Dunn says? My sense is that there has been little movement, when you smooth out the admittedly erratic polling.
No. UKIP are up 2% with Com Res, 1% with Populus. Down 2% with Yougov, 1% with Ashcroft. MOE stuff.
Among those certain to vote, they're 29% with Yougov, 33% with Com Res.
Thanks Sean - as I thought. The press is hardly covering itself in glory lately, with its analysis of polling. It has a hypothesis, and is selecting the evidence that fits it.
@tnewtondunn: Farage tells Paxman it's ok to hold office and openly dislike gay people if you're over 70, like MEP Roger Helmer. Staggering.
Not really, people in that age group were brought up to regard homosexuality as a sin.
It's understandable he might have that opinion, but it doesn't make those views acceptable, particularly within a major political party. That said, if his constituents share that view/don't care about it/think his other good qualities overcome that, well, that is unfortunate but their choice I guess. People can think all sorts of terrible things so long as they don't/cannot act on them.
Unless they really do have a machine for reading thoughts, you can hold any views you like. Broadcasting those views, or discriminating with them is the crime.
From previous thread - Labour should be very careful or this could seriously backfire this time next week. If UKIP top the ballot and do well in Labour areas then the question is going to be "How badly are Labour doing, Ms Cooper, if you are losing to a racist party in your own back yard?"
If UKIP come 3rd next week, then the story will be the bubble has burst (although UKIP will still be able to point to likely record national vote share). If Lab or Con come 3rd then prepare for media meltdown
I hope UKIP will have some UKIP bods watching the voting boxes until they're opened on Sunday.
The alliance between the media and the three main parties against UKIP strikes me a very bad sign.
Paxman gave a sympathetic interview to Nigel there. Probably realises that lefty student type shock Jock over reactions and deliberate misreadings have become predictable and passé.
An interesting point about the over 70s and accurate. They may have old-fashioned attitudes. I'm sure there will be a few around who think that nice Neil and Mr TSE just need to meet the right girl.
And the same goes for racism. They've been left behind a little as the world has changed around them. But these things are cyclical (as is everything). In another half century. perhaps these young people who know it all now will be looked upon then as ancient remnants from an old world?
Unless they really do have a machine for reading thoughts, you can hold any views you like. Broadcasting those views, or discriminating with them is the crime.
Politicians are in ad class apart in this respect as they are paid to express and act upon their views. It is therefore unacceptable for any of them to be prejudiced in this way. I don't want racists, sexists or homophobes deciding my laws because I don't want the sort of laws they'd favour.
I am pretty sure that there will be no official party members watching the boxes. The returning officer and his colleagues (along with the police) are deemed to be like judges in these matters.
An interesting point about the over 70s and accurate. They may have old-fashioned attitudes. I'm sure there will be a few around who think that nice Neil and Mr TSE just need to meet the right girl.
And the same goes for racism. They've been left behind a little as the world has changed around them. But these things are cyclical (as is everything). In another half century. perhaps these young people who know it all now will be looked upon then as ancient remnants from an old world?
I like to think some future civilization, restrained and prudish in all things, will tell horror stories of the debauched and anarchic times of this period.
@tnewtondunn: Farage tells Paxman it's ok to hold office and openly dislike gay people if you're over 70, like MEP Roger Helmer. Staggering.
Not really, people in that age group were brought up to regard homosexuality as a sin.
It's not ok to hold those views, regardless of age or background.
It is important to understand why those views exist and why the legislation against homosexuality was abolished. It boils down to religion and blackmail, many people have those views because they are religious and the tide in favour of gays started because many where blackmailed due to it being illegal. Gays would loose their jobs or denied employment before the 1990's if their sexual preference was revealed, it was that reason that in the cold war the secret agencies tried to find out if one was gay to blackmail them for info. Blackmail is a much worse crime than being gay, so the law was changed and being gay is no longer a crime.
Unless they really do have a machine for reading thoughts, you can hold any views you like. Broadcasting those views, or discriminating with them is the crime.
Politicians are in ad class apart in this respect as they are paid to express and act upon their views. It is therefore unacceptable for any of them to be prejudiced in this way. I don't want racists, sexists or homophobes deciding my laws because I don't want the sort of laws they'd favour.
An interesting point about the over 70s and accurate. They may have old-fashioned attitudes. I'm sure there will be a few around who think that nice Neil and Mr TSE just need to meet the right girl.
That might come as a bit of a surprise to Mr TSE's wife.
One thing is very clear now: UKIP is as happy as all the other parties to play fast and loose with stats. That Romanians committing 7% of all crime in the EU claim is disgraceful.
Another is that Nigel is not very good when talking about non-EU issues. He'll need to do a lot of homework between now and the GE campaign.
Got an AIFE leaflet today. I think it's the same one for the entire country, is it now? I loved how some of it was almost text speak, as to cram in the maximum amount of text and salient points various link words and the like were omitted.
@tnewtondunn: Farage tells Paxman it's ok to hold office and openly dislike gay people if you're over 70, like MEP Roger Helmer. Staggering.
Not really, people in that age group were brought up to regard homosexuality as a sin.
It's not ok to hold those views, regardless of age or background.
It is important to understand why those views exist and why the legislation against homosexuality was abolished. It boils down to religion and blackmail, many people have those views because they are religious and the tide in favour of gays started because many where blackmailed due to it being illegal. Gays would loose their jobs or denied employment before the 1990's if their sexual preference was revealed, it was that reason that in the cold war the secret agencies tried to find out if one was gay to blackmail them for info. Blackmail is a much worse crime than being gay, so the law was changed and being gay is no longer a crime.
I'm fully aware of the history of homosexuality, and I would point out that being gay should never have been a crime in the same way you wouldn't criminalise being female or being infertile.
An interesting point about the over 70s and accurate. They may have old-fashioned attitudes. I'm sure there will be a few around who think that nice Neil and Mr TSE just need to meet the right girl.
And the same goes for racism. They've been left behind a little as the world has changed around them. But these things are cyclical (as is everything). In another half century. perhaps these young people who know it all now will be looked upon then as ancient remnants from an old world?
@tnewtondunn: Farage tells Paxman it's ok to hold office and openly dislike gay people if you're over 70, like MEP Roger Helmer. Staggering.
Not really, people in that age group were brought up to regard homosexuality as a sin.
It's not ok to hold those views, regardless of age or background.
It is important to understand why those views exist and why the legislation against homosexuality was abolished. It boils down to religion and blackmail, many people have those views because they are religious and the tide in favour of gays started because many where blackmailed due to it being illegal. Gays would loose their jobs or denied employment before the 1990's if their sexual preference was revealed, it was that reason that in the cold war the secret agencies tried to find out if one was gay to blackmail them for info. Blackmail is a much worse crime than being gay, so the law was changed and being gay is no longer a crime.
It still a serious ecclesiastical crime in the Roman Catholic Church. And, yes, there was indeed a case of blackmail in Scotland last year.
The tide in favour of gays started when contraceptives became freely available in the 1960's. After that, who could criticise non-procreative sex. This would explain the vitriol from gays against the Pope in 2010.
I wonder if they are behind the vitriol against UKIP now?
Comments
First but slipping.
perdix said:
» show previous quotes
I am really looking forward to the Indyref.
If the vote is YES I can hope for greater chances of permanent Tory majority in Westminster.
If the vote is NO then I will be pleased that the union has survived.
So something to celebrate either way. But above all maybe we can hope that the miserable, whining Nats will shut up for a few years.
Fanny
Before he only had the Tory establishment against him now he has everyone against him.
I don't know if he can still revert to the old strategy that worked of being an opposition to the government, instead of being an opposition to the opposition.
You don't know how lucky you are up in Ayrshire.
A report published by HM Revenue and Customs last year estimated that alcohol duty fraud in the UK costs the taxpayer an estimated £1.2bn a year.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/article1412105.ece
These voter people - you have met them haven't you?
The result will be some pollsters will look like chumps.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2633024/MP-Charlotte-Leslie-recreates-Baywatch-pose-red-lifeguard-swimming-costume-15-years-wore-life-guard.html
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/19/labour-wrong-brother-ed-miliband-david
But ignore is my advice - seems to be mischief at work pre-Euros
Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes · 22m
ComRes/Independent: 6% say Ed M makes more likely to vote Lab, 40% less likely, 53% no diff http://ht.ly/x1g3L
Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes · 7m
ComRes/Independent: 32% say Lab's policies on eg energy prices & income tax make more likely to vote Lab, 17% less so http://ht.ly/x1gd8
Their strategy of attacking UKIP has had precisely the opposite effect that they intended and is driving undecideds straight into their arms..well done. Cleggy
Portsmouth is the one I really want to see.
...but, on those certain to vote in euros: UKIP top but Libs still 5th. UKIP 29%, LAB 25%, CON 19%, GRN 12%, LD 10%.
Waste two days studying the form, or sharpen a pin and close your eyes.
if UKIP are marginally ahead of Labour for the Euros, you should expect see polls putting either party ahead.
He is better on Transylvanian crime.
With my record of betting on the nags, it would possibly be less painfull.
It's all greek to me.
Beware of greeks baring gifts.
That's my sum total of greek understanding - I need a compressive education to make up for my comprehensive education.
One of my more geekier moments in my life was when I said John Redwood was more of a Romulan, not a Vulcan as the Vulcans are in favour of a United Federation of differing nations, whereas the Romulans want to destroy said Federation.
So the avowed Eurosceptic Redwood had be a Romulan
(Checks tinfoil hat for fit...)
Among those certain to vote, they're 29% with Yougov, 33% with Com Res.
So disliking some gays should be OK?
If UKIP come 3rd next week, then the story will be the bubble has burst (although UKIP will still be able to point to likely record national vote share). If Lab or Con come 3rd then prepare for media meltdown
O/T - I spent the weekend in Dublin where like us they have local as well as Euro elections. There are huge numbers of posters up on every lamp post. As the Irish have open list rather than closed list for the Euros there are multiple posters for each party with different candidates.
The view in the press is that of the current coalition Fine Gael will hold up reasonably well while Labour will take a hammering. One of the austerity measures introduced has been charges for water (this is currently free!) The Socialists have dubbed this in their posters the Water Tax (another poster also had "Cost of living crisis!"). The previous incumbents of Fianna Fail and the Greens are not expected to see any gain although Fianna Fail may hold their current seats. The big winners are expected to be Sinn Fein who are not tainted by government and are I think the most EU sceptic party in Ireland
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)
Unless they really do have a machine for reading thoughts, you can hold any views you like.
Broadcasting those views, or discriminating with them is the crime.
Would you like a bet on that?
The alliance between the media and the three main parties against UKIP strikes me a very bad sign.
And the same goes for racism. They've been left behind a little as the world has changed around them. But these things are cyclical (as is everything). In another half century. perhaps these young people who know it all now will be looked upon then as ancient remnants from an old world?
I am pretty sure that there will be no official party members watching the boxes.
The returning officer and his colleagues (along with the police) are deemed to be like judges in these matters.
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
EXCL: Ukip using Britain's war dead to drum up anti-foreigner votes: http://bit.ly/1qQb7va
Never mind the sun saying ukip going to a new low,this is a new low from the sun.
Blackmail is a much worse crime than being gay, so the law was changed and being gay is no longer a crime.
I believe it's called "democracy".
One Euro election leaflet obtained by The Sun carries a photograph of a cemetery of the fallen in France.
Above the sombre snap, the headline on it reads: "They fought and died to keep Britain free from foreign invasion.
"Don't let their sacrifice die in vain. VOTE UKIP."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1267921/GENERAL-ELECTION-2010-Nick-Clegg-Nazi-slur-Britain.html
Another is that Nigel is not very good when talking about non-EU issues. He'll need to do a lot of homework between now and the GE campaign.
You're not the first person to think I'm gay.
The tide in favour of gays started when contraceptives became freely available in the 1960's. After that, who could criticise non-procreative sex. This would explain the vitriol from gays against the Pope in 2010.
I wonder if they are behind the vitriol against UKIP now?