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  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779

    DavidL said:

    Ouch. Bad poll for the tories that one.

    All the polls seem to be very consistent on Labour. Much less so for the Tories.

    Consistently down from the 40+s they were getting a while back, sure....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    BobaFett said:

    @TSE

    You could call it Fantasy Fortnight - Tories leading or marooned in the 20s? Take your pick.

    @DavidL - inexplicable, all seems very odd.

    Tories are neither leading nor in the 20s.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @DavidL
    "But I don't like this one!"

    Fair point, and well made sir!
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Any ideas as to the reason for the turbulence?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 1m
    Tories lead on "getting the economy growing & creating jobs" (+8), "cutting deficit" (+27), "steering econy through difficult times" (+17).
  • As I suggested earlier, telephone polls fail to bring out the "Shy Tories"

    That said, this poll makes me fancy Labour a bit more in the Euros.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Labour are ahead by six points in my latest general election voting intention poll, conducted over the past weekend.
    Has anyone looked at whether there is a weekend effect on opinion polls, which we might expect to affect the Ashcroft Polls?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @BobaFett

    "Any ideas as to the reason for the turbulence"

    Is this question relating to Jacks arse?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    You read it here first: Next week's Ashcroft poll will see the Labour lead drop.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:


    UKIP is telling porkies. There are not 26 million unemployed Europeans looking to take the jobs of unskilled British workers.

    Well there certainly aren't 26 million after your job.
    MrJones said:


    UKIP is telling porkies. There are not 26 million unemployed Europeans looking to take the jobs of unskilled British workers.

    Well there certainly aren't 26 million after your job.

    Or anyone else's.

    No, just you.

    http://www.wakefieldexpress.co.uk/news/local-news/update-men-from-dewsbury-and-heckmondwike-jailed-for-human-trafficking-1-6615353

    "But on arrival they were faced with squalid and cramped accommodation, long hours with barely any pay and beatings from Orsos if they disobeyed his orders.

    Workers lived in accommodation in Ravensthorpe, Batley, Heckmondwike and Bradford. Up to 50 men were kept in a single Batley house.

    Beatings were regularly dished out by Orsos. One of the house rules was that no one could ever say ‘no’ to him.

    They were then sent to work throughout Dewsbury, Bradford and Wakefield."

    Nope - that does not show that 26 million foreigners are after everyone's job but mine.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    New Thread
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    BobaFett said:

    Any ideas as to the reason for the turbulence?

    Just variations around the underlying mean shares.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @OblitusSumMe

    Rational thinking would point to a "weekend" difference, but how much it shifts the polls is debatable.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Why is Con much shorter odds for most votes than for most seats in the Euros?

    Surely it's very hard to assess the translation from votes to seats - it's completely different to the situation in a GE where the big issue is low turnout in safe Lab seats.

    Turnout may vary where there are also Locals but each Euro region should contain a fair mix of Con and Lab areas.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:


    UKIP is telling porkies. There are not 26 million unemployed Europeans looking to take the jobs of unskilled British workers.

    Well there certainly aren't 26 million after your job.
    MrJones said:


    UKIP is telling porkies. There are not 26 million unemployed Europeans looking to take the jobs of unskilled British workers.

    Well there certainly aren't 26 million after your job.

    Or anyone else's.

    No, just you.

    http://www.wakefieldexpress.co.uk/news/local-news/update-men-from-dewsbury-and-heckmondwike-jailed-for-human-trafficking-1-6615353

    "But on arrival they were faced with squalid and cramped accommodation, long hours with barely any pay and beatings from Orsos if they disobeyed his orders.

    Workers lived in accommodation in Ravensthorpe, Batley, Heckmondwike and Bradford. Up to 50 men were kept in a single Batley house.

    Beatings were regularly dished out by Orsos. One of the house rules was that no one could ever say ‘no’ to him.

    They were then sent to work throughout Dewsbury, Bradford and Wakefield."

    Nope - that does not show that 26 million foreigners are after everyone's job but mine.

    You said "Or anyone else's." I'd say "They were then sent to work throughout Dewsbury, Bradford and Wakefield". shows you'e totally wrong on that score wouldn't you?

    The reality is this problem is effecting millions of people. The poster is directed at them and anyone who's not effected yet who is capable of understanding the long-term consequences of turning a blind eye to this problem like the political and media class have been doing for the last 14-ish years.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939

    AndyJS said:

    I'm going off UKIP a bit, especially after the survey showing their supporters to be quite left-wing and statist on a lot of issues.

    That was a bit of a shocker.
    Patrick said:

    People always say UKIP are 'right wing' - whatever that really means. I think in BBC talk it just means 'bad'. But UKIP have some fairly statist non-libertarian interventionist views which will accord with the half of the WWC they are peeling away from Ed. If Farage cmes up with some lefty sounding domestic policy sound bites as well as the EU/immigration stuff he will attract more of this group.

    If you look at the comments under DT articles, they are overwhelmingly dominated by nutters wanting to hang the EU LibLabCon traitors; and by nutters wanting the state to expropriate landlords, ban foreigners and reduce house prices by 70%.These are essentially the same people in each case; both frequently sign their rants off "Vote UKIP" and respond to challenge with abuse.

    They've made the comments section basically unreadable. Their real tragedy is their lack of self awareness - they are the sort of folk who will rant angrily at whomever they meet and walk away convinced they've made a convert.

    Peak blazer has in my view happened, simply because almost everyone must by now either know or have met a UKIPper.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:


    UKIP is telling porkies. There are not 26 million unemployed Europeans looking to take the jobs of unskilled British workers.

    Well there certainly aren't 26 million after your job.
    MrJones said:


    UKIP is telling porkies. There are not 26 million unemployed Europeans looking to take the jobs of unskilled British workers.

    Well there certainly aren't 26 million after your job.

    Or anyone else's.

    No, just you.

    http://www.wakefieldexpress.co.uk/news/local-news/update-men-from-dewsbury-and-heckmondwike-jailed-for-human-trafficking-1-6615353

    "But on arrival they were faced with squalid and cramped accommodation, long hours with barely any pay and beatings from Orsos if they disobeyed his orders.

    Workers lived in accommodation in Ravensthorpe, Batley, Heckmondwike and Bradford. Up to 50 men were kept in a single Batley house.

    Beatings were regularly dished out by Orsos. One of the house rules was that no one could ever say ‘no’ to him.

    They were then sent to work throughout Dewsbury, Bradford and Wakefield."

    Nope - that does not show that 26 million foreigners are after everyone's job but mine.

    You said "Or anyone else's." I'd say "They were then sent to work throughout Dewsbury, Bradford and Wakefield". shows you'e totally wrong on that score wouldn't you?

    The reality is this problem is effecting millions of people. The poster is directed at them and anyone who's not effected yet who is capable of understanding the long-term consequences of turning a blind eye to this problem like the political and media class have been doing for the last 14-ish years.

    Sorry, your link does not show that 26 million people are after anyone's job in the UK.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:


    UKIP is telling porkies. There are not 26 million unemployed Europeans looking to take the jobs of unskilled British workers.

    Well there certainly aren't 26 million after your job.
    MrJones said:


    UKIP is telling porkies. There are not 26 million unemployed Europeans looking to take the jobs of unskilled British workers.

    Well there certainly aren't 26 million after your job.

    Or anyone else's.

    No, just you.

    http://www.wakefieldexpress.co.uk/news/local-news/update-men-from-dewsbury-and-heckmondwike-jailed-for-human-trafficking-1-6615353

    "But on arrival they were faced with squalid and cramped accommodation, long hours with barely any pay and beatings from Orsos if they disobeyed his orders.

    Workers lived in accommodation in Ravensthorpe, Batley, Heckmondwike and Bradford. Up to 50 men were kept in a single Batley house.

    Beatings were regularly dished out by Orsos. One of the house rules was that no one could ever say ‘no’ to him.

    They were then sent to work throughout Dewsbury, Bradford and Wakefield."

    Nope - that does not show that 26 million foreigners are after everyone's job but mine.

    You said "Or anyone else's." I'd say "They were then sent to work throughout Dewsbury, Bradford and Wakefield". shows you'e totally wrong on that score wouldn't you?

    The reality is this problem is effecting millions of people. The poster is directed at them and anyone who's not effected yet who is capable of understanding the long-term consequences of turning a blind eye to this problem like the political and media class have been doing for the last 14-ish years.

    Sorry, your link does not show that 26 million people are after anyone's job in the UK.

    "Or anyone else's."

    It does show that it effects lots of other people though - but not you.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Sean_F said:

    rogerh said:

    Another dire figure for the Lib Dems.
    Council results likely to show following changes of control

    LAB GAINS Bristol from NOC
    Swindon from CON
    Croydon From CON
    Harrow from CON
    Merton from CON
    Redbridge from CON
    Bradford from NOC
    Calderdale from NOC
    Kirklees From NOC
    Stockport from NOC
    Walsalll From NOC
    Amber Valley from CON
    Cambridge From LD
    Crawley from CON
    Tamworth from CON
    Waveney from CON
    W Lancs from CON

    CON Gains Kingston from LD
    Winchester from NOC
    St Albans from NOC
    Purbeck From NOC

    CON losses to NOC Basildon
    Basingstoke

    LD losses fo NOC Three Rivers
    Portsmouth

    Any other changes of control expected?

    Harrow, Merton, and Redbridge would be Labour gains from NOC.

    I think the Conservatives will lose Havering to NOC, due to a very strong UKIP vote and the implosion of Romford Conservative Association.

    Kingston has been predicted as a Con gain too.

    http://www.londoncommunications.co.uk/2014/05/lca-predicts-2014-local-elections/
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