So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
Just the usual Europhile smears.
Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?
I think I recall you saying you were a top rate tax payer and a director of a firm, so I wouldnt say the 26m Bulgarians and Romanians eligible to work in the UK were capable of doing your job.
But if you were an unskilled worker on the minimum wage, your job would be available to anyone of a working age in the EU, which I think is closer to 480m, and I guess the adverts were aimed at those people.
Basically: an EU open door immigration policy encourages Brits for working hard at school and getting qualified, and penalises the lazy and the stupid.
That will cost the Tories some funding before the electon. What has the world come to when a Tory leader wont publically stand up for big business. The worlds gone mad.
That's a profoundly ignorant statement. It was the board of AZ that decided not to approve the deal. Had they wanted to go for it and Dave wasn't being helpful then what you said might have had some merit.
Instead of the usual adverts at the top of PB I'm currently getting one saying "Sveriges utbyte med EU. Granska land for land in an du roster. ekonomifakta". Whatever that means.
Sweden's relationship with the EU: view economic facts on a country by country basis.
Or something like that. NickPalmer's better at Scandi than I am.
So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
Just the usual Europhile smears.
Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?
I think I recall you saying you were a top rate tax payer and a director of a firm, so I wouldnt say the 26m Bulgarians and Romanians eligible to work in the UK were capable of doing your job.
But if you were an unskilled worker on the minimum wage, your job would be available to anyone of a working age in the EU, which I think is closer to 480m, and I guess the adverts were aimed at those people.
Basically: an EU open door immigration policy encourages Brits for working hard at school and getting qualified, and penalises the lazy and the stupid.
"Debate focused heavily on a group of no fewer than 14 Romanians, who were crammed into a four-bedroom house as they desperately struggled to earn a living.
The men had been brought over to the UK by a gang who promised them work, but viewers heard they had laboured in a field for 17 hours for just £10."
I wonder if that was 60p an hour each or were they given £10 between all 14 of them which would be what - 5p an hour?
I consider the Tory party to be just as corrupt as any other party and these attempts to claim moral superiority are just farcical. A lot of your MPs should have been in jail for their actions in the last Parliament. Another should be on charges now for taking payments. You are just as bad as all the rest. Bond was just stupid enough to try and pretend the Tories were any different.
Yes, your anti-Tory prejudice is so overwhelming that, despite the fact that precisely zero of its hundreds of MPs and MEPs have been convicted of crimes of dishonesty in recent years, you think the party is as corrupt as UKIP (two out of, what, some twenty individuals in total), Labour (five if memory serves me correctly) or the LibDems (one).
I wouldn't mind if UKIP weren't trying to claim that they represent a contrast to what they call the LibLabCon 'corruption'. In fact their record is proportionately the worst, followed by Labour. Maybe that is not statistically significant, maybe they are all the same - if you said that, and were careful to include UKIP in the list, I might have some respect for your argument. But this ludicrous pretence that UKIP politicians are 'different' really sticks in the gullet.
Actually Richard you are showing your own bigotry here. I never claimed UKIP were different. In fact all I claimed was that they are the same as the rest of the parties. Show me one single post in all my time on here where I have claimed that UKIP were any better than the rest. All I have done is pointed out that the rest including the Tories are just as bad. And since the attacks are coming from the high and mighty Tories who try to claim they are better than all the rest it is to those attacks that I have responded.
Of course since you are nothing more than a Cameroon mouthpiece I can't expect you to be able to actually comprehend these points but it is worth pointing it out yet again for the audience that the Tories are just as corrupt as everyone else. The fact that you manged toi get away without having any MPs jailed in spite of more than 50% of your MPs having to pay back falsely claimed expenses is simply an indictment of the system, not a sign of your purity.
So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
Just the usual Europhile smears.
Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?
I think I recall you saying you were a top rate tax payer and a director of a firm, so I wouldnt say the 26m Bulgarians and Romanians eligible to work in the UK were capable of doing your job.
But if you were an unskilled worker on the minimum wage, your job would be available to anyone of a working age in the EU, which I think is closer to 480m, and I guess the adverts were aimed at those people.
Basically: an EU open door immigration policy encourages Brits for working hard at school and getting qualified, and penalises the lazy and the stupid.
"Debate focused heavily on a group of no fewer than 14 Romanians, who were crammed into a four-bedroom house as they desperately struggled to earn a living.
The men had been brought over to the UK by a gang who promised them work, but viewers heard they had laboured in a field for 17 hours for just £10."
I wonder if that was 60p an hour each or were they given £10 between all 14 of them which would be what - 5p an hour?
So the problem is that unscrupulous employers are breaching the minimum wage?
Or that unscrupulous landlords are renting out accommodation at densities so high it would doubtless fail a fire safety inspection?
It doesn't look like it is really immigration that is the problem.
So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
Just the usual Europhile smears.
Socrates
But the Met Police were not prepared to substantiate his claim.
And the reason why is that ATM fraud is relatively rare, tends to occur in a short intensive batch of related crimes and can usually be traced back to a single group of criminals (often dubbed "organised crime gangs").
So I have no reason to doubt that at one stage in the history of ATM fraud, a Romanian group was responsible for a large proportion of recorded incidents. And that for that period they may have accounted for most of the total reported losses. But this is taking their identity out of context. The year before it would have been Hong Kong Chinese 'criminal gangs', or a Puerto Rican group, or a group of Colombians, or, for that matter, any group from any nationality.
Skimming attacks on ATMs occur in short bursts of localised attacks. They originate from many sources and no proper appraisal of their incidence could relate them to a single nationality of criminal.
As Charles said downthread, Farage is using people's natural fear of being mugged whilst withdrawing money as a means of making people scared of Romanian immigrants, even though physical attacks at ATMs account for less than 10% of total ATM fraud which in itself is minimal.
Farage's statement is pure, unadulterated racist scaremongering. End of Story.
So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
Just the usual Europhile smears.
Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?
I think I recall you saying you were a top rate tax payer and a director of a firm, so I wouldnt say the 26m Bulgarians and Romanians eligible to work in the UK were capable of doing your job.
But if you were an unskilled worker on the minimum wage, your job would be available to anyone of a working age in the EU, which I think is closer to 480m, and I guess the adverts were aimed at those people.
Basically: an EU open door immigration policy encourages Brits for working hard at school and getting qualified, and penalises the lazy and the stupid.
"Debate focused heavily on a group of no fewer than 14 Romanians, who were crammed into a four-bedroom house as they desperately struggled to earn a living.
The men had been brought over to the UK by a gang who promised them work, but viewers heard they had laboured in a field for 17 hours for just £10."
I wonder if that was 60p an hour each or were they given £10 between all 14 of them which would be what - 5p an hour?
So the problem is that unscrupulous employers are breaching the minimum wage?
Or that unscrupulous landlords are renting out accommodation at densities so high it would doubtless fail a fire safety inspection?
It doesn't look like it is really immigration that is the problem.
So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
Just the usual Europhile smears.
Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?
I think I recall you saying you were a top rate tax payer and a director of a firm, so I wouldnt say the 26m Bulgarians and Romanians eligible to work in the UK were capable of doing your job.
But if you were an unskilled worker on the minimum wage, your job would be available to anyone of a working age in the EU, which I think is closer to 480m, and I guess the adverts were aimed at those people.
That ad is not about 26 million Romanians and Bulgarians. It is about the unemployed in mainland Europe, including the likes of the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and France.
It reads:
26 million people in Europe are looking for work.
And whose jobs are they after?
There is a finger pointing out from the poster. It is directed at anyone who reads it.
If Socrates is going to complain about Nick Clegg's claim that 3 million jobs will be lost if we leave the EU, to be consistent he should also condemn what is clearly and deliberately a poster designed to mislead.
So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
Just the usual Europhile smears.
Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?
Not yours, no.
So are unemployed Swedish journalists after the jobs of unskilled British factory workers?
So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
Just the usual Europhile smears.
Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?
I think I recall you saying you were a top rate tax payer and a director of a firm, so I wouldnt say the 26m Bulgarians and Romanians eligible to work in the UK were capable of doing your job.
But if you were an unskilled worker on the minimum wage, your job would be available to anyone of a working age in the EU, which I think is closer to 480m, and I guess the adverts were aimed at those people.
That ad is not about 26 million Romanians and Bulgarians. It is about the unemployed in mainland Europe, including the likes of the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and France.
It reads:
26 million people in Europe are looking for work.
And whose jobs are they after?
There is a finger pointing out from the poster. It is directed at anyone who reads it.
If Socrates is going to complain about Nick Clegg's claim that 3 million jobs will be lost if we leave the EU, to be consistent he should also condemn what is clearly and deliberately a poster designed to mislead.
It's a poster designed to appeal to the people the political class are waging economic warfare against.
So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
Just the usual Europhile smears.
Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?
Not yours, no.
So are unemployed Swedish journalists after the jobs of unskilled British factory workers?
So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
Just the usual Europhile smears.
Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?
Keep up. 26 million criminal gang members are after your job. And they all live next door.
Might as well save yourself the pain and sign on now.
The Evening Standard's Euro figures for London would see the LDs narrowly miss out on a seat, as well as the Greens. The Green 7% figure seems a bit lower than I would actually expect.
So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
Just the usual Europhile smears.
Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?
Keep up. 26 million criminal gang members are after your job. And they all live next door.
The political class' position is entirely dependent on hiding the truth from the majority of the public.
''The year before it would have been Hong Kong Chinese 'criminal gangs', or a Puerto Rican group, or a group of Colombians, or, for that matter, any group from any nationality.''
Perhaps we should ask criminal gangs all around the world whether they find it easier to target britain under
1. A points system 2. Free movement
Because if its 1. then maybe we should be proposing free movement with all of the above countries.
And if its 1. then Australia sure must be a crime and vice ridden den of iniquity.
I fail to see why a points system of immigration sends normally rational posters into emotional outsbursts.
@SouthamObserver: It is more than just misleading, it is, quite simply, a lie. It is not true that 26 million people in Europe are looking for work in the UK. For some incomprehensible reason, the Kippers think this that this lie is an example of plain-speaking honesty.
In contrast, they accuse Clegg of lying, when he said: "“It has been reliably estimated that over three million jobs are linked to our position within the EU". That is misleading, in the sense that no-one in the right mind thinks that three million jobs would be lost if we left the EU, but it's at least true in the sense that a South Bank University paper in 2000 showed that “three million jobs were associated with EU demand.”
Both are garbage statistics, of no relevance to the argument, but Clegg's is more defensible than UKIP's.
People always say UKIP are 'right wing' - whatever that really means. I think in BBC talk it just means 'bad'. But UKIP have some fairly statist non-libertarian interventionist views which will accord with the half of the WWC they are peeling away from Ed. If Farage cmes up with some lefty sounding domestic policy sound bites as well as the EU/immigration stuff he will attract more of this group.
The likes of the BBC / Guardian always talk of the BNP as being right wing, but the few policies they do have, outside of the send "foreigners" somewhere or other, are [on the same scale of left vs right] very very left wing i.e nationalise everything.
Well it's nice to see that there is for once general agreement that politicians of all stripes are venal. Usually when I suggest this, I get jumped on from all sides telling me that I'm being very unfair on our elected representatives.
That ad is not about 26 million Romanians and Bulgarians. It is about the unemployed in mainland Europe, including the likes of the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and France.
It reads:
26 million people in Europe are looking for work.
And whose jobs are they after?
There is a finger pointing out from the poster. It is directed at anyone who reads it.
If Socrates is going to complain about Nick Clegg's claim that 3 million jobs will be lost if we leave the EU, to be consistent he should also condemn what is clearly and deliberately a poster designed to mislead.
I thought I had already responded to this but clearly Vanilla's issues meant it didn't go through. Yes, it is an incorrect and misleading poster and UKIP shouldn't have done it. If Farage continues to repeat the claim in numerous interviews and discussions, it will be very wrong and I will condemn it more loudly. (For the record, I let the three million claim slip by the first few times Clegg used it.)
"Now, please listen to the extract from my article which was broadcast, and ask yourselves if this is in any way an accurate reflection of what I wrote or (in the context of the other extracts from other newspapers broadcast alongside it) a proper exercise of the BBC’s absolute duty of impartiality (specifically required by the Royal Charter which establishes the BBC and allows it to levy the licence fee) in matters of current controversy, and especially in party political matters, and even more especially party political matters during the weeks immediately before an election. "
Well it's nice to see that there is for once general agreement that politicians of all stripes are venal. Usually when I suggest this, I get jumped on from all sides telling me that I'm being very unfair on our elected representatives.
I had never noticed you say that before AF and I apologise. You have gone up greatly in my estimation (in spite of your Europhilia :-) )
In early June 2009, when the Euro elections also coincided with local elections, UK turnout was 34.5%. This time those nice people at PP, the only bookie currently offering this market, currently go as follows:
As ever, the prevailing weather conditions, forecast to be "mixed", will be a factor. Overall the turnout is unlikely to be substantially different from last time and as the odds suggest will probably be within the 2nd and 3rd bands shown above. My own view fwiw is that the increased support for UKIP this time is likely to result in a slightly higher turnout and accordingly my money (aka two pints of Old Speckled Hen) is on the 3rd band, i.e. 34% - 39% at odds of 7/4. DYOR.
"I first heard of Nigel Farage’s alleged ‘car crash’ interview on BBC Friday night, when members of the audience at a school debate , to which I was speaking, had somehow learned that Mr Farage had done something dreadful. They knew it was dreadful, though they could not tell me what it was.
On Saturday I watched the whole thing. I don’t think the interviewer’s technique, of incessant aggression and hostile questions (the answers to which he then talked over) would have damaged Mr Farage with any impartial listener. The whole line of questioning seemed to be based on the idea that it is self-evident that any distinction between British culture and any other culture must be the act of an evil person. Those who believe that aren’t going to vote UKIP anyway. The only bad moment for Mr Farage was when his media aide foolishly intervened on air, so making his boss look weak. But the immediate claims all over the media that the interview had *been* a car-crash may have damaged Mr Farage among those who will never listen to it. It is easily found on the Internet. See what you think"
So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
Just the usual Europhile smears.
Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?
Not yours, no.
So are unemployed Swedish journalists after the jobs of unskilled British factory workers?
Are you an unskilled factory worker?
Nope. But that finger points to me just as much as anyone else. And the 26 million unemployed in the EU come from all EU member states. There are, for example, 2.872 million unemployed people in Germany. Are they all looking for jobs in the UK? Are the 440,000 unemployed Swedes; or the 107,000 Danes; or the 450,000 Dutch; or the 2.788 million French; and so on.
Peter Hitchens has always been negative towards UKIP, believing them to be a distraction from the task of replacing the Tories with what he calls a "genuinely pro-British movement".
That ad is not about 26 million Romanians and Bulgarians. It is about the unemployed in mainland Europe, including the likes of the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and France.
It reads:
26 million people in Europe are looking for work.
And whose jobs are they after?
There is a finger pointing out from the poster. It is directed at anyone who reads it.
If Socrates is going to complain about Nick Clegg's claim that 3 million jobs will be lost if we leave the EU, to be consistent he should also condemn what is clearly and deliberately a poster designed to mislead.
I thought I had already responded to this but clearly Vanilla's issues meant it didn't go through. Yes, it is an incorrect and misleading poster and UKIP shouldn't have done it. If Farage continues to repeat the claim in numerous interviews and discussions, it will be very wrong and I will condemn it more loudly. (For the record, I let the three million claim slip by the first few times Clegg used it.)
Good on you Socrates. But no more than I expected.
So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
Just the usual Europhile smears.
Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?
Not yours, no.
So are unemployed Swedish journalists after the jobs of unskilled British factory workers?
Are you an unskilled factory worker?
Nope. But that finger points to me just as much as anyone else. And the 26 million unemployed in the EU come from all EU member states. There are, for example, 2.872 million unemployed people in Germany. Are they all looking for jobs in the UK? Are the 440,000 unemployed Swedes; or the 107,000 Danes; or the 450,000 Dutch; or the 2.788 million French; and so on.
None of the millions of unemployed unskilled workers in the EU with free movement into the UK is after your job.
"I first heard of Nigel Farage’s alleged ‘car crash’ interview on BBC Friday night, when members of the audience at a school debate , to which I was speaking, had somehow learned that Mr Farage had done something dreadful. They knew it was dreadful, though they could not tell me what it was.
On Saturday I watched the whole thing. I don’t think the interviewer’s technique, of incessant aggression and hostile questions (the answers to which he then talked over) would have damaged Mr Farage with any impartial listener. The whole line of questioning seemed to be based on the idea that it is self-evident that any distinction between British culture and any other culture must be the act of an evil person. Those who believe that aren’t going to vote UKIP anyway. The only bad moment for Mr Farage was when his media aide foolishly intervened on air, so making his boss look weak. But the immediate claims all over the media that the interview had *been* a car-crash may have damaged Mr Farage among those who will never listen to it. It is easily found on the Internet. See what you think"
I think Farage's interview was a significant misstep, but not the mortal wound some commentators would have you believe. Unfortunately Hitchens is such a reactionary, conservative (small c) and all-round unpleasant man that his 'support' of UKIP on this actually shifts me in the other direction.
So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
Just the usual Europhile smears.
Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?
I think I recall you saying you were a top rate tax payer and a director of a firm, so I wouldnt say the 26m Bulgarians and Romanians eligible to work in the UK were capable of doing your job.
But if you were an unskilled worker on the minimum wage, your job would be available to anyone of a working age in the EU, which I think is closer to 480m, and I guess the adverts were aimed at those people.
That ad is not about 26 million Romanians and Bulgarians. It is about the unemployed in mainland Europe, including the likes of the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and France.
It reads:
26 million people in Europe are looking for work.
And whose jobs are they after?
There is a finger pointing out from the poster. It is directed at anyone who reads it.
If Socrates is going to complain about Nick Clegg's claim that 3 million jobs will be lost if we leave the EU, to be consistent he should also condemn what is clearly and deliberately a poster designed to mislead.
Oh sorry my mistake. I forgot it was about the EU unemployed.
Well the point still stands about minimum wage and unskilled jobs. People like you with highly paid jobs will see it and think "No they arent, so it doesnt affect me", but it will probably resonate with the target audience of the unskilled working class.
I see the argument you are pushing, but you could probably say the same for any advert for any product if you wanted to be Mr Logic about it
So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
Just the usual Europhile smears.
Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?
Not yours, no.
So are unemployed Swedish journalists after the jobs of unskilled British factory workers?
Are you an unskilled factory worker?
Nope. But that finger points to me just as much as anyone else. And the 26 million unemployed in the EU come from all EU member states. There are, for example, 2.872 million unemployed people in Germany. Are they all looking for jobs in the UK? Are the 440,000 unemployed Swedes; or the 107,000 Danes; or the 450,000 Dutch; or the 2.788 million French; and so on.
None of the millions of unemployed unskilled workers in the EU with free movement into the UK is after your job.
And the vast majority are not after anyone's job in this country. They have homes, families and lives in the countries where they live. In fact, do we even know how much immigration from the EU is driven by unemployment at all? An ad saying 500 million EU citizens are entitled to your job might have made some sense. But that 26 million people are after your job claim is just dishonest scaremongering.
People always say UKIP are 'right wing' - whatever that really means. I think in BBC talk it just means 'bad'. But UKIP have some fairly statist non-libertarian interventionist views which will accord with the half of the WWC they are peeling away from Ed. If Farage cmes up with some lefty sounding domestic policy sound bites as well as the EU/immigration stuff he will attract more of this group.
The likes of the BBC / Guardian always talk of the BNP as being right wing, but the few policies they do have, outside of the send "foreigners" somewhere or other, are [on the same scale of left vs right] very very left wing i.e nationalise everything.
Well, if as seems to be happening, UKIP start to come under more serious scrutiny, many more people will see that they are a statist, lefty, non-pc, populist party. As that becomes more widely known then more WWC will move from the red camp to the purple but some of the small state, blue-rinse, polite, elderly, genteel ex-Tories will drfit back in to Dave's camp - esp if he throws some red meat on EU negotiations or some such. Farage eating the Labour vote is Ed's nightmare.
People always say UKIP are 'right wing' - whatever that really means. I think in BBC talk it just means 'bad'. But UKIP have some fairly statist non-libertarian interventionist views which will accord with the half of the WWC they are peeling away from Ed. If Farage cmes up with some lefty sounding domestic policy sound bites as well as the EU/immigration stuff he will attract more of this group.
The likes of the BBC / Guardian always talk of the BNP as being right wing, but the few policies they do have, outside of the send "foreigners" somewhere or other, are [on the same scale of left vs right] very very left wing i.e nationalise everything.
Well, if as seems to be happening, UKIP start to come under more serious scrutiny, many more people will see that they are a statist, lefty, non-pc, populist party. As that becomes more widely known then more WWC will move from the red camp to the purple but some of the small state, blue-rinse, polite, elderly, genteel ex-Tories will drfit back in to Dave's camp - esp if he throws some red meat on EU negotiations or some such. Farage eating the Labour vote is Ed's nightmare.
Funny that because some people on here are convinced UKIP are a Thatcherite right wingers!
People always say UKIP are 'right wing' - whatever that really means. I think in BBC talk it just means 'bad'. But UKIP have some fairly statist non-libertarian interventionist views which will accord with the half of the WWC they are peeling away from Ed. If Farage cmes up with some lefty sounding domestic policy sound bites as well as the EU/immigration stuff he will attract more of this group.
The likes of the BBC / Guardian always talk of the BNP as being right wing, but the few policies they do have, outside of the send "foreigners" somewhere or other, are [on the same scale of left vs right] very very left wing i.e nationalise everything.
Well, if as seems to be happening, UKIP start to come under more serious scrutiny, many more people will see that they are a statist, lefty, non-pc, populist party. As that becomes more widely known then more WWC will move from the red camp to the purple but some of the small state, blue-rinse, polite, elderly, genteel ex-Tories will drfit back in to Dave's camp - esp if he throws some red meat on EU negotiations or some such. Farage eating the Labour vote is Ed's nightmare.
I am interested in the idea that flat taxes and significant cuts in public spending are corporatist and left wing. Can you elucidate?
Most of the country has a better than evens chance of 10mm of rain on Thursday. If you think the weather will affect turnout then the outlook is quite clear.
Fake Scotch gives whisky trade a multimillion-pound headache
EUROPE is being flooded with millions of litres of fake whisky from India, according to the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA), which describes the international trade as “worrying”.
People always say UKIP are 'right wing' - whatever that really means. I think in BBC talk it just means 'bad'. But UKIP have some fairly statist non-libertarian interventionist views which will accord with the half of the WWC they are peeling away from Ed. If Farage cmes up with some lefty sounding domestic policy sound bites as well as the EU/immigration stuff he will attract more of this group.
The likes of the BBC / Guardian always talk of the BNP as being right wing, but the few policies they do have, outside of the send "foreigners" somewhere or other, are [on the same scale of left vs right] very very left wing i.e nationalise everything.
Well, if as seems to be happening, UKIP start to come under more serious scrutiny, many more people will see that they are a statist, lefty, non-pc, populist party. As that becomes more widely known then more WWC will move from the red camp to the purple but some of the small state, blue-rinse, polite, elderly, genteel ex-Tories will drfit back in to Dave's camp - esp if he throws some red meat on EU negotiations or some such. Farage eating the Labour vote is Ed's nightmare.
Funny that because some people on here are convinced UKIP are a Thatcherite right wingers!
Ask Nigel Farage. I believe he is the leader of UKIP.
There would certainly be legs in a left of centre, socially conservative political party in this country - especially if there were PR - but UKIP is not it.
TSE in thread header: " ..... more than likely, Ed would still be PM, as the Cons need to 6-7% ahead to stop a net loss of seats to Labour."
I think its rather more complex than that - for example Stephen Fisher's current projection shows the Tories 5.7% ahead of Labour at the next General Election, winning 316 seats, 40 more than Labour on 276 seats. In such circumstances Ed Miliband would most decidedly NOT be PM.
Hmm ... I've just had a pop-up banner at the top of this thread tell me that "2 criminals live close to you."
Only two? This is Merseyside - surely we can do better than that? Or is just the bloke next door with the Ukip banner in his window?
I get that too - and I don't live anywhere like Merseyside. It is conveniently left vague how near is near - in the Highlands it might be a radius of 10 miles, here in my quiet town it would be rather more circumscribed; and as for Merseyside you can judge for yourself.
So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
Just the usual Europhile smears.
Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?
Not yours, no.
So are unemployed Swedish journalists after the jobs of unskilled British factory workers?
Are you an unskilled factory worker?
Nope. But that finger points to me just as much as anyone else. And the 26 million unemployed in the EU come from all EU member states. There are, for example, 2.872 million unemployed people in Germany. Are they all looking for jobs in the UK? Are the 440,000 unemployed Swedes; or the 107,000 Danes; or the 450,000 Dutch; or the 2.788 million French; and so on.
None of the millions of unemployed unskilled workers in the EU with free movement into the UK is after your job.
And the vast majority are not after anyone's job in this country. They have homes, families and lives in the countries where they live. In fact, do we even know how much immigration from the EU is driven by unemployment at all? An ad saying 500 million EU citizens are entitled to your job might have made some sense. But that 26 million people are after your job claim is just dishonest scaremongering.
It's been happening for 14 years. The people the poster is directed at already know the political class' version of reality is a lie.
DavidL, I think that you are bang on the money with that prediction, and its one I have been warming to for a wee while now. Coalition Government, the main Labour Opposition party led by Ed Miliband and Ed Balls, Better Together/Indy Ref, a Libdem slump in the polls. And now the Farage/UKIP polling bounce delivering them the kind of wall to wall campaign media scrutiny that they have for so long managed to dodge, and that has seen them fast become the nasty party or UK politics. Throw in a now very solid economic recovery, and you might be left wondering if this is the perfect Conservative brand detox strategy?
There is no doubt that some of those Conservative defectors to UKIP are very much hoping that their actions would see the Conservative party being forced to swing right to embrace their ideal brand of Conservatism. It would be a real irony, if in fact their defection from the party to UKIP ended up having the opposite effect of the one they intended by leaving the Conservatives even more firmly entrenched on the centre ground and gaining support without them. There is no doubt that up here in Scotland, its Farage and UKIP rather than Cameron and the Conservatives that is drawing out protesters from the left onto the streets when they campaign up here these days.
The tories on 35 with UKIP on 14%. Doesn't matter how many times you see it, it still seems counter-intuitive and downright weird.
This is of course blasphemy but is it possible, just possible, that contrary to all the predictions to the contrary Cameron and Osborne have found support in the centre ground that pretty much outweighs what they have lost to the right?
A ridiculous idea I know. Pretty much everyone on here except Richard Nabavi is persuaded that Cameron is a political incompetent who specialises in losing elections, even those he won near 100 additional seats in.
Time the Lib Dems practiced what they preach - just had an election flyer through the door saying Welsh Jobs are at risk and only the Lib Dems will protect them and where was said flyer printed? Portsmouth!
So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?
Answers on a postcard please.
I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.
It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.
Just the usual Europhile smears.
Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?
Not yours, no.
So are unemployed Swedish journalists after the jobs of unskilled British factory workers?
Are you an unskilled factory worker?
Nope. But that finger points to me just as much as anyone else. And the 26 million unemployed in the EU come from all EU member states. There are, for example, 2.872 million unemployed people in Germany. Are they all looking for jobs in the UK? Are the 440,000 unemployed Swedes; or the 107,000 Danes; or the 450,000 Dutch; or the 2.788 million French; and so on.
None of the millions of unemployed unskilled workers in the EU with free movement into the UK is after your job.
And the vast majority are not after anyone's job in this country. They have homes, families and lives in the countries where they live. In fact, do we even know how much immigration from the EU is driven by unemployment at all? An ad saying 500 million EU citizens are entitled to your job might have made some sense. But that 26 million people are after your job claim is just dishonest scaremongering.
It's been happening for 14 years. The people the poster is directed at already know the political class' version of reality is a lie.
UKIP is telling porkies. There are not 26 million unemployed Europeans looking to take the jobs of unskilled British workers.
TSE in thread header: " ..... more than likely, Ed would still be PM, as the Cons need to 6-7% ahead to stop a net loss of seats to Labour."
I think its rather more complex than that - for example Stephen Fisher's current projection shows the Tories 5.7% ahead of Labour at the next General Election, winning 316 seats, 40 more than Labour on 276 seats. In such circumstances Ed Miliband would most decidedly NOT be PM.
Sorry Peter, I wasn't clear in the thread header.
I meant to say, all the recent polls which have shown the Tories ahead, have only had the Tories 1/2% ahead, if the General election is like that, Ed will likely be PM.
Another dire figure for the Lib Dems. Council results likely to show following changes of control
LAB GAINS Bristol from NOC Swindon from CON Croydon From CON Harrow from CON Merton from CON Redbridge from CON Bradford from NOC Calderdale from NOC Kirklees From NOC Stockport from NOC Walsalll From NOC Amber Valley from CON Cambridge From LD Crawley from CON Tamworth from CON Waveney from CON W Lancs from CON
CON Gains Kingston from LD Winchester from NOC St Albans from NOC Purbeck From NOC
@Anorak We have an excuse, we are to thick to do basic maths. George tells us the economy is booming, we look at our bills and paypackets and stare back blankly in disbelief.
"But on arrival they were faced with squalid and cramped accommodation, long hours with barely any pay and beatings from Orsos if they disobeyed his orders.
Workers lived in accommodation in Ravensthorpe, Batley, Heckmondwike and Bradford. Up to 50 men were kept in a single Batley house.
Beatings were regularly dished out by Orsos. One of the house rules was that no one could ever say ‘no’ to him.
They were then sent to work throughout Dewsbury, Bradford and Wakefield."
I mentioned it before. You need to wait till the tea leaves settle after the stirring the Euros are causing. Only then can the Great (non Romanian) Gypsy Rose Lee do a reading. OGH might be able to do it, but his hairstyle is all wrong....or completely missing?
Another dire figure for the Lib Dems. Council results likely to show following changes of control
LAB GAINS Bristol from NOC Swindon from CON Croydon From CON Harrow from CON Merton from CON Redbridge from CON Bradford from NOC Calderdale from NOC Kirklees From NOC Stockport from NOC Walsalll From NOC Amber Valley from CON Cambridge From LD Crawley from CON Tamworth from CON Waveney from CON W Lancs from CON
CON Gains Kingston from LD Winchester from NOC St Albans from NOC Purbeck From NOC
CON losses to NOC Basildon Basingstoke
LD losses fo NOC Three Rivers Portsmouth
Any other changes of control expected?
Harrow, Merton, and Redbridge would be Labour gains from NOC.
I think the Conservatives will lose Havering to NOC, due to a very strong UKIP vote and the implosion of Romford Conservative Association.
All the polls seem to be very consistent on Labour. Much less so for the Tories.
There has been a tendency downwards in the Labour vote, 35% is getting close to the top of the range now but yes, there is a lot more volatility in the tory vote. When UKIP were doing them the most damage that was perhaps more understandable than it is now. Strange.
Listen to the GOOD Lord and stop getting all your knickers in a twist.
Statistics being what they are, and with all polls subject to margins of error, it is likely that these results are scattered around a mean; this currently looks like a very small advantage to Labour, and one which has undoubtedly narrowed since the half-way point in the parliament. While the Conservative share has held fairly steady over this time, Labour have receded.
Nothing has changed in a week ! The true picture at the moment is
LD 9 UKIP 14.5 Con 32 Lab 33.5
Just add his polls up and take the midpoints. Simplistic but probably true.
All the polls seem to be very consistent on Labour. Much less so for the Tories.
There has been a tendency downwards in the Labour vote, 35% is getting close to the top of the range now but yes, there is a lot more volatility in the tory vote. When UKIP were doing them the most damage that was perhaps more understandable than it is now. Strange.
Ashcroft consistent with Tories on 32% +/- MOE but not getting the smoothing right
Well no-one can accuse Lord Ashcroft of skewing his polls to the advantage of the Tories! Ironic this poll is on the same day the Tories take the lead with Populus.
I consider the Tory party to be just as corrupt as any other party and these attempts to claim moral superiority are just farcical. A lot of your MPs should have been in jail for their actions in the last Parliament. Another should be on charges now for taking payments. You are just as bad as all the rest. Bond was just stupid enough to try and pretend the Tories were any different.
But nobody's claiming moral superiority for their party except you, Richard. All I have been arguing is the especial inferiority of UKIP. When it comes to institutional moral incompetence, you can discuss all you like who's second, third of fifth, but it's crystal clear who's bottom of the heap. And this is a farcical position for a party that campaigns on a NOTA ticket to get itself into.
That you're denying this and trying to suggest that others are somehow worse, by hairsplitting over who's got more criminals, and therefore you've won, shows that you've comprehensively blown this argument. You will be laughed at if you try to campaign on it.
So for 2015, you'd better not discuss corruption in public life because your boys wrote the manual.
But you'd better not discuss immigration either because we know it's just a BNP dog whistle.
You'd better not discuss gay marriage because most people are fine with it and we'll only remember that mediaeval UKIP loony who thinks it causes floods.
You'd better not mention women's issues because then somebody will bring up Godfrey Bloom.
You'd better not mention HS2 because somebody might tactlessly remember out loud that you wanted several of those last time around (with the trains in traditional colours).
You'd better not mention defence because you want more armed forces but for those forces to be idle.
You'd better not mention tax because then we'll find out you quite like bankers, which is not a widely held position.
What does that leave for UKIP to mention that's not toxic? Why can't you see this?
Comments
Or something like that. NickPalmer's better at Scandi than I am.
Peter Kellner on 3 public opinion indicators that could matter more in the long-run than this week's Euro elections http://y-g.co/1lBbaCT
"Debate focused heavily on a group of no fewer than 14 Romanians, who were crammed into a four-bedroom house as they desperately struggled to earn a living.
The men had been brought over to the UK by a gang who promised them work, but viewers heard they had laboured in a field for 17 hours for just £10."
I wonder if that was 60p an hour each or were they given £10 between all 14 of them which would be what - 5p an hour?
Of course since you are nothing more than a Cameroon mouthpiece I can't expect you to be able to actually comprehend these points but it is worth pointing it out yet again for the audience that the Tories are just as corrupt as everyone else. The fact that you manged toi get away without having any MPs jailed in spite of more than 50% of your MPs having to pay back falsely claimed expenses is simply an indictment of the system, not a sign of your purity.
"As of this morning the total membership of [UKIP] has been confirmed at 38,124.
At the current rate of increase, UKIP membership is on course to top 40,000 by the end of July."
http://www.ukip.org/ukip_is_delighted_to_announce_that_party_membership_has_reached_yet_another_record_high
They announced 36,000 members on 21 April.
twitter.com/UKIP/status/458239253043249152
Or that unscrupulous landlords are renting out accommodation at densities so high it would doubtless fail a fire safety inspection?
It doesn't look like it is really immigration that is the problem.
But the Met Police were not prepared to substantiate his claim.
And the reason why is that ATM fraud is relatively rare, tends to occur in a short intensive batch of related crimes and can usually be traced back to a single group of criminals (often dubbed "organised crime gangs").
So I have no reason to doubt that at one stage in the history of ATM fraud, a Romanian group was responsible for a large proportion of recorded incidents. And that for that period they may have accounted for most of the total reported losses. But this is taking their identity out of context. The year before it would have been Hong Kong Chinese 'criminal gangs', or a Puerto Rican group, or a group of Colombians, or, for that matter, any group from any nationality.
Skimming attacks on ATMs occur in short bursts of localised attacks. They originate from many sources and no proper appraisal of their incidence could relate them to a single nationality of criminal.
As Charles said downthread, Farage is using people's natural fear of being mugged whilst withdrawing money as a means of making people scared of Romanian immigrants, even though physical attacks at ATMs account for less than 10% of total ATM fraud which in itself is minimal.
Farage's statement is pure, unadulterated racist scaremongering. End of Story.
It reads:
26 million people in Europe are looking for work.
And whose jobs are they after?
There is a finger pointing out from the poster. It is directed at anyone who reads it.
If Socrates is going to complain about Nick Clegg's claim that 3 million jobs will be lost if we leave the EU, to be consistent he should also condemn what is clearly and deliberately a poster designed to mislead.
Not you.
http://www.bbc.com/weather/2641170?day=3
Might as well save yourself the pain and sign on now.
Perhaps we should ask criminal gangs all around the world whether they find it easier to target britain under
1. A points system
2. Free movement
Because if its 1. then maybe we should be proposing free movement with all of the above countries.
And if its 1. then Australia sure must be a crime and vice ridden den of iniquity.
I fail to see why a points system of immigration sends normally rational posters into emotional outsbursts.
In contrast, they accuse Clegg of lying, when he said: "“It has been reliably estimated that over three million jobs are linked to our position within the EU". That is misleading, in the sense that no-one in the right mind thinks that three million jobs would be lost if we left the EU, but it's at least true in the sense that a South Bank University paper in 2000 showed that “three million jobs were associated with EU demand.”
Both are garbage statistics, of no relevance to the argument, but Clegg's is more defensible than UKIP's.
Amazingly the BBC have managed to quote from that piece and make it sound as if it were an attack on UKIP!!
Incredible front!
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/19/hitchens-ukip-bbc
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b007rhyn
"Now, please listen to the extract from my article which was broadcast, and ask yourselves if this is in any way an accurate reflection of what I wrote or (in the context of the other extracts from other newspapers broadcast alongside it) a proper exercise of the BBC’s absolute duty of impartiality (specifically required by the Royal Charter which establishes the BBC and allows it to levy the licence fee) in matters of current controversy, and especially in party political matters, and even more especially party political matters during the weeks immediately before an election. "
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
In early June 2009, when the Euro elections also coincided with local elections, UK turnout was 34.5%. This time those nice people at PP, the only bookie currently offering this market, currently go as follows:
< 29% ............. 13/2
29% - 34% ...... 15/8
34% - 39% ....... 7/4
39% - 44% ...... 11/4
>44% ............... 7/2
As ever, the prevailing weather conditions, forecast to be "mixed", will be a factor. Overall the turnout is unlikely to be substantially different from last time and as the odds suggest will probably be within the 2nd and 3rd bands shown above.
My own view fwiw is that the increased support for UKIP this time is likely to result in a slightly higher turnout and accordingly my money (aka two pints of Old Speckled Hen) is on the 3rd band, i.e. 34% - 39% at odds of 7/4.
DYOR.
I typically interpret "End of Story" as meaning "I'm losing this argument so I'm going to go out on a grand statement."
It seems to apply as a good translation here.
On Saturday I watched the whole thing. I don’t think the interviewer’s technique, of incessant aggression and hostile questions (the answers to which he then talked over) would have damaged Mr Farage with any impartial listener. The whole line of questioning seemed to be based on the idea that it is self-evident that any distinction between British culture and any other culture must be the act of an evil person. Those who believe that aren’t going to vote UKIP anyway. The only bad moment for Mr Farage was when his media aide foolishly intervened on air, so making his boss look weak. But the immediate claims all over the media that the interview had *been* a car-crash may have damaged Mr Farage among those who will never listen to it. It is easily found on the Internet. See what you think"
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
All of your base are belong UKIP. Very!
Oh sorry my mistake. I forgot it was about the EU unemployed.
Well the point still stands about minimum wage and unskilled jobs. People like you with highly paid jobs will see it and think "No they arent, so it doesnt affect me", but it will probably resonate with the target audience of the unskilled working class.
I see the argument you are pushing, but you could probably say the same for any advert for any product if you wanted to be Mr Logic about it
Only two? This is Merseyside - surely we can do better than that? Or is just the bloke next door with the Ukip banner in his window?
EUROPE is being flooded with millions of litres of fake whisky from India, according to the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA), which describes the international trade as “worrying”.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/article1412105.ece
How did long did it take the standard's posse of dreary semi-literate worthies calling themselves journalists to think that one up?
'Omerta' is clumsily misused in this context. Not that whoever pretends to edit the Standard would ever notice...
There would certainly be legs in a left of centre, socially conservative political party in this country - especially if there were PR - but UKIP is not it.
I think its rather more complex than that - for example Stephen Fisher's current projection shows the Tories 5.7% ahead of Labour at the next General Election, winning 316 seats, 40 more than Labour on 276 seats.
In such circumstances Ed Miliband would most decidedly NOT be PM.
Would it save time to count the honest people?
There is no doubt that some of those Conservative defectors to UKIP are very much hoping that their actions would see the Conservative party being forced to swing right to embrace their ideal brand of Conservatism. It would be a real irony, if in fact their defection from the party to UKIP ended up having the opposite effect of the one they intended by leaving the Conservatives even more firmly entrenched on the centre ground and gaining support without them. There is no doubt that up here in Scotland, its Farage and UKIP rather than Cameron and the Conservatives that is drawing out protesters from the left onto the streets when they campaign up here these days.
The real way to save time is just to make up a figure based on prejudice, then state that as fact.
(Not of course that anyone on here would do that)
I meant to say, all the recent polls which have shown the Tories ahead, have only had the Tories 1/2% ahead, if the General election is like that, Ed will likely be PM.
*Not me personally, but his twitter followers last week.
Council results likely to show following changes of control
LAB GAINS Bristol from NOC
Swindon from CON
Croydon From CON
Harrow from CON
Merton from CON
Redbridge from CON
Bradford from NOC
Calderdale from NOC
Kirklees From NOC
Stockport from NOC
Walsalll From NOC
Amber Valley from CON
Cambridge From LD
Crawley from CON
Tamworth from CON
Waveney from CON
W Lancs from CON
CON Gains Kingston from LD
Winchester from NOC
St Albans from NOC
Purbeck From NOC
CON losses to NOC Basildon
Basingstoke
LD losses fo NOC Three Rivers
Portsmouth
Any other changes of control expected?
The Ashcroft National Poll (16-18 May): Con 29%, Lab 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%. For details and analysis go to @ConHome, 4pm.
We have an excuse, we are to thick to do basic maths.
George tells us the economy is booming, we look at our bills and paypackets and stare back blankly in disbelief.
(97.5% of statistics are untrue)
That's just ridiculous.
Lab 35%
Con 29%
UKIP 14%
LD 9%
No reason to disbelieve this poll though, any more than there was to disbelieve the Populus poll earlier.
http://www.wakefieldexpress.co.uk/news/local-news/update-men-from-dewsbury-and-heckmondwike-jailed-for-human-trafficking-1-6615353
"But on arrival they were faced with squalid and cramped accommodation, long hours with barely any pay and beatings from Orsos if they disobeyed his orders.
Workers lived in accommodation in Ravensthorpe, Batley, Heckmondwike and Bradford. Up to 50 men were kept in a single Batley house.
Beatings were regularly dished out by Orsos. One of the house rules was that no one could ever say ‘no’ to him.
They were then sent to work throughout Dewsbury, Bradford and Wakefield."
Ignore until after the Euros.
Polls are a farce at the moment.
That's broadly what we thought as of yesterday - so today's polls show no significant change.
I mentioned it before. You need to wait till the tea leaves settle after the stirring the Euros are causing. Only then can the Great (non Romanian) Gypsy Rose Lee do a reading.
OGH might be able to do it, but his hairstyle is all wrong....or completely missing?
"We will have to assume that the 3% of UKIP voters who think the Lib Dems have the best approach to Europe know what they are doing."
I think the Conservatives will lose Havering to NOC, due to a very strong UKIP vote and the implosion of Romford Conservative Association.
Statistics being what they are, and with all polls subject to margins of error, it is likely that these results are scattered around a mean; this currently looks like a very small advantage to Labour, and one which has undoubtedly narrowed since the half-way point in the parliament. While the Conservative share has held fairly steady over this time, Labour have receded.
Nothing has changed in a week ! The true picture at the moment is
LD 9
UKIP 14.5
Con 32
Lab 33.5
Just add his polls up and take the midpoints. Simplistic but probably true.
You could call it Fantasy Fortnight - Tories leading or marooned in the 20s? Take your pick.
@DavidL - inexplicable, all seems very odd.
That you're denying this and trying to suggest that others are somehow worse, by hairsplitting over who's got more criminals, and therefore you've won, shows that you've comprehensively blown this argument. You will be laughed at if you try to campaign on it.
So for 2015, you'd better not discuss corruption in public life because your boys wrote the manual.
But you'd better not discuss immigration either because we know it's just a BNP dog whistle.
You'd better not discuss gay marriage because most people are fine with it and we'll only remember that mediaeval UKIP loony who thinks it causes floods.
You'd better not mention women's issues because then somebody will bring up Godfrey Bloom.
You'd better not mention HS2 because somebody might tactlessly remember out loud that you wanted several of those last time around (with the trains in traditional colours).
You'd better not mention defence because you want more armed forces but for those forces to be idle.
You'd better not mention tax because then we'll find out you quite like bankers, which is not a widely held position.
What does that leave for UKIP to mention that's not toxic? Why can't you see this?