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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.

    Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?

    I think I recall you saying you were a top rate tax payer and a director of a firm, so I wouldnt say the 26m Bulgarians and Romanians eligible to work in the UK were capable of doing your job.

    But if you were an unskilled worker on the minimum wage, your job would be available to anyone of a working age in the EU, which I think is closer to 480m, and I guess the adverts were aimed at those people.

    Basically: an EU open door immigration policy encourages Brits for working hard at school and getting qualified, and penalises the lazy and the stupid.

  • rcs1000 said:

    Astra Zeneca talks are over. Takeover off.

    That will cost the Tories some funding before the electon. What has the world come to when a Tory leader wont publically stand up for big business. The worlds gone mad.
    That's a profoundly ignorant statement. It was the board of AZ that decided not to approve the deal. Had they wanted to go for it and Dave wasn't being helpful then what you said might have had some merit.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AndyJS said:

    Instead of the usual adverts at the top of PB I'm currently getting one saying "Sveriges utbyte med EU. Granska land for land in an du roster. ekonomifakta". Whatever that means.

    Sweden's relationship with the EU: view economic facts on a country by country basis.

    Or something like that. NickPalmer's better at Scandi than I am.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    YouGov ‏@YouGov 2m

    Peter Kellner on 3 public opinion indicators that could matter more in the long-run than this week's Euro elections http://y-g.co/1lBbaCT
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.

    Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?

    Not yours, no.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    edited May 2014
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.

    Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?

    I think I recall you saying you were a top rate tax payer and a director of a firm, so I wouldnt say the 26m Bulgarians and Romanians eligible to work in the UK were capable of doing your job.

    But if you were an unskilled worker on the minimum wage, your job would be available to anyone of a working age in the EU, which I think is closer to 480m, and I guess the adverts were aimed at those people.

    Basically: an EU open door immigration policy encourages Brits for working hard at school and getting qualified, and penalises the lazy and the stupid.

    http://www.expressandstar.com/news/2014/01/14/romanians-in-hard-times-on-benefits-street/

    "Debate focused heavily on a group of no fewer than 14 Romanians, who were crammed into a four-bedroom house as they desperately struggled to earn a living.

    The men had been brought over to the UK by a gang who promised them work, but viewers heard they had laboured in a field for 17 hours for just £10."

    I wonder if that was 60p an hour each or were they given £10 between all 14 of them which would be what - 5p an hour?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682


    I consider the Tory party to be just as corrupt as any other party and these attempts to claim moral superiority are just farcical. A lot of your MPs should have been in jail for their actions in the last Parliament. Another should be on charges now for taking payments. You are just as bad as all the rest. Bond was just stupid enough to try and pretend the Tories were any different.

    Yes, your anti-Tory prejudice is so overwhelming that, despite the fact that precisely zero of its hundreds of MPs and MEPs have been convicted of crimes of dishonesty in recent years, you think the party is as corrupt as UKIP (two out of, what, some twenty individuals in total), Labour (five if memory serves me correctly) or the LibDems (one).

    I wouldn't mind if UKIP weren't trying to claim that they represent a contrast to what they call the LibLabCon 'corruption'. In fact their record is proportionately the worst, followed by Labour. Maybe that is not statistically significant, maybe they are all the same - if you said that, and were careful to include UKIP in the list, I might have some respect for your argument. But this ludicrous pretence that UKIP politicians are 'different' really sticks in the gullet.
    Actually Richard you are showing your own bigotry here. I never claimed UKIP were different. In fact all I claimed was that they are the same as the rest of the parties. Show me one single post in all my time on here where I have claimed that UKIP were any better than the rest. All I have done is pointed out that the rest including the Tories are just as bad. And since the attacks are coming from the high and mighty Tories who try to claim they are better than all the rest it is to those attacks that I have responded.

    Of course since you are nothing more than a Cameroon mouthpiece I can't expect you to be able to actually comprehend these points but it is worth pointing it out yet again for the audience that the Tories are just as corrupt as everyone else. The fact that you manged toi get away without having any MPs jailed in spite of more than 50% of your MPs having to pay back falsely claimed expenses is simply an indictment of the system, not a sign of your purity.

  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Socrates said:

    ToryJim said:

    Socrates said:

    ToryJim said:

    Louis Van Gaal appointed Manchester United boss on a three year deal and Giggs assistant boss.

    Bloody foreigners coming over here managing our football teams.... ;)
    I don't think anyone has had a problem with high-earning people coming here.
    My tongue was very much in my cheek. Personally I have no issue with anyone coming here.
    What about hardcore Islamists that want apostates and adulterers stoned to death?
    What about politicians who want people who vote for the wrong party hanged?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    UKIP membership figures.
    "As of this morning the total membership of [UKIP] has been confirmed at 38,124.

    At the current rate of increase, UKIP membership is on course to top 40,000 by the end of July."

    http://www.ukip.org/ukip_is_delighted_to_announce_that_party_membership_has_reached_yet_another_record_high

    They announced 36,000 members on 21 April.

    twitter.com/UKIP/status/458239253043249152
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Patrick said:


    Ed Microband needs to learn to drink pints and drop the odd swear word 'by mistake'.

    Unlikely. He's the man who had a joint Stag night with his wife.
    What was all that about? - Abandoning the tradition of an all-male stag night just ain’t British.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MrJones said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.

    Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?

    I think I recall you saying you were a top rate tax payer and a director of a firm, so I wouldnt say the 26m Bulgarians and Romanians eligible to work in the UK were capable of doing your job.

    But if you were an unskilled worker on the minimum wage, your job would be available to anyone of a working age in the EU, which I think is closer to 480m, and I guess the adverts were aimed at those people.

    Basically: an EU open door immigration policy encourages Brits for working hard at school and getting qualified, and penalises the lazy and the stupid.

    "Debate focused heavily on a group of no fewer than 14 Romanians, who were crammed into a four-bedroom house as they desperately struggled to earn a living.

    The men had been brought over to the UK by a gang who promised them work, but viewers heard they had laboured in a field for 17 hours for just £10."

    I wonder if that was 60p an hour each or were they given £10 between all 14 of them which would be what - 5p an hour?
    So the problem is that unscrupulous employers are breaching the minimum wage?

    Or that unscrupulous landlords are renting out accommodation at densities so high it would doubtless fail a fire safety inspection?

    It doesn't look like it is really immigration that is the problem.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.
    Socrates

    But the Met Police were not prepared to substantiate his claim.

    And the reason why is that ATM fraud is relatively rare, tends to occur in a short intensive batch of related crimes and can usually be traced back to a single group of criminals (often dubbed "organised crime gangs").

    So I have no reason to doubt that at one stage in the history of ATM fraud, a Romanian group was responsible for a large proportion of recorded incidents. And that for that period they may have accounted for most of the total reported losses. But this is taking their identity out of context. The year before it would have been Hong Kong Chinese 'criminal gangs', or a Puerto Rican group, or a group of Colombians, or, for that matter, any group from any nationality.

    Skimming attacks on ATMs occur in short bursts of localised attacks. They originate from many sources and no proper appraisal of their incidence could relate them to a single nationality of criminal.

    As Charles said downthread, Farage is using people's natural fear of being mugged whilst withdrawing money as a means of making people scared of Romanian immigrants, even though physical attacks at ATMs account for less than 10% of total ATM fraud which in itself is minimal.

    Farage's statement is pure, unadulterated racist scaremongering. End of Story.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.

    Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?

    I think I recall you saying you were a top rate tax payer and a director of a firm, so I wouldnt say the 26m Bulgarians and Romanians eligible to work in the UK were capable of doing your job.

    But if you were an unskilled worker on the minimum wage, your job would be available to anyone of a working age in the EU, which I think is closer to 480m, and I guess the adverts were aimed at those people.

    Basically: an EU open door immigration policy encourages Brits for working hard at school and getting qualified, and penalises the lazy and the stupid.

    "Debate focused heavily on a group of no fewer than 14 Romanians, who were crammed into a four-bedroom house as they desperately struggled to earn a living.

    The men had been brought over to the UK by a gang who promised them work, but viewers heard they had laboured in a field for 17 hours for just £10."

    I wonder if that was 60p an hour each or were they given £10 between all 14 of them which would be what - 5p an hour?
    So the problem is that unscrupulous employers are breaching the minimum wage?

    Or that unscrupulous landlords are renting out accommodation at densities so high it would doubtless fail a fire safety inspection?

    It doesn't look like it is really immigration that is the problem.
    Then i'd suggest an optician.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    edited May 2014
    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.

    Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?

    I think I recall you saying you were a top rate tax payer and a director of a firm, so I wouldnt say the 26m Bulgarians and Romanians eligible to work in the UK were capable of doing your job.

    But if you were an unskilled worker on the minimum wage, your job would be available to anyone of a working age in the EU, which I think is closer to 480m, and I guess the adverts were aimed at those people.

    That ad is not about 26 million Romanians and Bulgarians. It is about the unemployed in mainland Europe, including the likes of the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and France.

    It reads:

    26 million people in Europe are looking for work.

    And whose jobs are they after?

    There is a finger pointing out from the poster. It is directed at anyone who reads it.

    If Socrates is going to complain about Nick Clegg's claim that 3 million jobs will be lost if we leave the EU, to be consistent he should also condemn what is clearly and deliberately a poster designed to mislead.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    MrJones said:

    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.

    Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?

    Not yours, no.

    So are unemployed Swedish journalists after the jobs of unskilled British factory workers?

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.

    Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?

    I think I recall you saying you were a top rate tax payer and a director of a firm, so I wouldnt say the 26m Bulgarians and Romanians eligible to work in the UK were capable of doing your job.

    But if you were an unskilled worker on the minimum wage, your job would be available to anyone of a working age in the EU, which I think is closer to 480m, and I guess the adverts were aimed at those people.

    That ad is not about 26 million Romanians and Bulgarians. It is about the unemployed in mainland Europe, including the likes of the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and France.

    It reads:

    26 million people in Europe are looking for work.

    And whose jobs are they after?

    There is a finger pointing out from the poster. It is directed at anyone who reads it.

    If Socrates is going to complain about Nick Clegg's claim that 3 million jobs will be lost if we leave the EU, to be consistent he should also condemn what is clearly and deliberately a poster designed to mislead.

    It's a poster designed to appeal to the people the political class are waging economic warfare against.

    Not you.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    Deleted. My mistake.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:

    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.

    Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?

    Not yours, no.

    So are unemployed Swedish journalists after the jobs of unskilled British factory workers?

    Are you an unskilled factory worker?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Weather forecast now available for Thursday and for Nottingham and Birmingham it's heavy rain/showers and 15 degrees:

    http://www.bbc.com/weather/2641170?day=3
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2014

    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.

    Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?

    Keep up. 26 million criminal gang members are after your job. And they all live next door.

    Might as well save yourself the pain and sign on now.
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    The Evening Standard's Euro figures for London would see the LDs narrowly miss out on a seat, as well as the Greens. The Green 7% figure seems a bit lower than I would actually expect.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    "Poll coming out 19:30 will show that despite entire establishment media being against UKIP, the smears ain't working. Brits love underdogs."

    twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/467718756064456704

    Is this Ashcroft?

    I thought Ashcroft was scheduled for about 4pm (given last week...)
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Anorak said:

    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.

    Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?

    Keep up. 26 million criminal gang members are after your job. And they all live next door.
    The political class' position is entirely dependent on hiding the truth from the majority of the public.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited May 2014
    ''The year before it would have been Hong Kong Chinese 'criminal gangs', or a Puerto Rican group, or a group of Colombians, or, for that matter, any group from any nationality.''

    Perhaps we should ask criminal gangs all around the world whether they find it easier to target britain under

    1. A points system
    2. Free movement

    Because if its 1. then maybe we should be proposing free movement with all of the above countries.

    And if its 1. then Australia sure must be a crime and vice ridden den of iniquity.

    I fail to see why a points system of immigration sends normally rational posters into emotional outsbursts.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited May 2014
    @SouthamObserver: It is more than just misleading, it is, quite simply, a lie. It is not true that 26 million people in Europe are looking for work in the UK. For some incomprehensible reason, the Kippers think this that this lie is an example of plain-speaking honesty.

    In contrast, they accuse Clegg of lying, when he said: "“It has been reliably estimated that over three million jobs are linked to our position within the EU". That is misleading, in the sense that no-one in the right mind thinks that three million jobs would be lost if we left the EU, but it's at least true in the sense that a South Bank University paper in 2000 showed that “three million jobs were associated with EU demand.”

    Both are garbage statistics, of no relevance to the argument, but Clegg's is more defensible than UKIP's.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited May 2014
    Patrick said:

    People always say UKIP are 'right wing' - whatever that really means. I think in BBC talk it just means 'bad'. But UKIP have some fairly statist non-libertarian interventionist views which will accord with the half of the WWC they are peeling away from Ed. If Farage cmes up with some lefty sounding domestic policy sound bites as well as the EU/immigration stuff he will attract more of this group.

    The likes of the BBC / Guardian always talk of the BNP as being right wing, but the few policies they do have, outside of the send "foreigners" somewhere or other, are [on the same scale of left vs right] very very left wing i.e nationalise everything.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Well it's nice to see that there is for once general agreement that politicians of all stripes are venal. Usually when I suggest this, I get jumped on from all sides telling me that I'm being very unfair on our elected representatives.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2014


    That ad is not about 26 million Romanians and Bulgarians. It is about the unemployed in mainland Europe, including the likes of the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and France.

    It reads:

    26 million people in Europe are looking for work.

    And whose jobs are they after?

    There is a finger pointing out from the poster. It is directed at anyone who reads it.

    If Socrates is going to complain about Nick Clegg's claim that 3 million jobs will be lost if we leave the EU, to be consistent he should also condemn what is clearly and deliberately a poster designed to mislead.

    I thought I had already responded to this but clearly Vanilla's issues meant it didn't go through. Yes, it is an incorrect and misleading poster and UKIP shouldn't have done it. If Farage continues to repeat the claim in numerous interviews and discussions, it will be very wrong and I will condemn it more loudly. (For the record, I let the three million claim slip by the first few times Clegg used it.)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Lennon said:

    "Poll coming out 19:30 will show that despite entire establishment media being against UKIP, the smears ain't working. Brits love underdogs."

    twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/467718756064456704

    Is this Ashcroft?

    I thought Ashcroft was scheduled for about 4pm (given last week...)
    I didn't look at the date on the tweet. It was the 17th, so I think it referred to the ComRes.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    A lot of people on here commented on Peter Hitchens' article yesterday about UKIPs harsh treatment in the press of late

    Amazingly the BBC have managed to quote from that piece and make it sound as if it were an attack on UKIP!!

    Incredible front!

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/19/hitchens-ukip-bbc

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b007rhyn


    "Now, please listen to the extract from my article which was broadcast, and ask yourselves if this is in any way an accurate reflection of what I wrote or (in the context of the other extracts from other newspapers broadcast alongside it) a proper exercise of the BBC’s absolute duty of impartiality (specifically required by the Royal Charter which establishes the BBC and allows it to levy the licence fee) in matters of current controversy, and especially in party political matters, and even more especially party political matters during the weeks immediately before an election. "

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    antifrank said:

    Well it's nice to see that there is for once general agreement that politicians of all stripes are venal. Usually when I suggest this, I get jumped on from all sides telling me that I'm being very unfair on our elected representatives.

    I had never noticed you say that before AF and I apologise. You have gone up greatly in my estimation (in spite of your Europhilia :-) )
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited May 2014
    EUROPEAN ELECTION TURNOUT

    In early June 2009, when the Euro elections also coincided with local elections, UK turnout was 34.5%. This time those nice people at PP, the only bookie currently offering this market, currently go as follows:

    < 29% ............. 13/2
    29% - 34% ...... 15/8
    34% - 39% ....... 7/4
    39% - 44% ...... 11/4
    >44% ............... 7/2

    As ever, the prevailing weather conditions, forecast to be "mixed", will be a factor. Overall the turnout is unlikely to be substantially different from last time and as the odds suggest will probably be within the 2nd and 3rd bands shown above.
    My own view fwiw is that the increased support for UKIP this time is likely to result in a slightly higher turnout and accordingly my money (aka two pints of Old Speckled Hen) is on the 3rd band, i.e. 34% - 39% at odds of 7/4.
    DYOR.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @AveryLP

    I typically interpret "End of Story" as meaning "I'm losing this argument so I'm going to go out on a grand statement."

    It seems to apply as a good translation here.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2014

    Lennon said:

    "Poll coming out 19:30 will show that despite entire establishment media being against UKIP, the smears ain't working. Brits love underdogs."

    twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/467718756064456704

    Is this Ashcroft?

    I thought Ashcroft was scheduled for about 4pm (given last week...)
    I didn't look at the date on the tweet. It was the 17th, so I think it referred to the ComRes.

    Damn you for removing that post, I'd just written an entire 'theory' on the out come of it. ; )
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    "I first heard of Nigel Farage’s alleged ‘car crash’ interview on BBC Friday night, when members of the audience at a school debate , to which I was speaking, had somehow learned that Mr Farage had done something dreadful. They knew it was dreadful, though they could not tell me what it was.

    On Saturday I watched the whole thing. I don’t think the interviewer’s technique, of incessant aggression and hostile questions (the answers to which he then talked over) would have damaged Mr Farage with any impartial listener. The whole line of questioning seemed to be based on the idea that it is self-evident that any distinction between British culture and any other culture must be the act of an evil person. Those who believe that aren’t going to vote UKIP anyway. The only bad moment for Mr Farage was when his media aide foolishly intervened on air, so making his boss look weak. But the immediate claims all over the media that the interview had *been* a car-crash may have damaged Mr Farage among those who will never listen to it. It is easily found on the Internet. See what you think"

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.

    Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?

    Not yours, no.

    So are unemployed Swedish journalists after the jobs of unskilled British factory workers?

    Are you an unskilled factory worker?

    Nope. But that finger points to me just as much as anyone else. And the 26 million unemployed in the EU come from all EU member states. There are, for example, 2.872 million unemployed people in Germany. Are they all looking for jobs in the UK? Are the 440,000 unemployed Swedes; or the 107,000 Danes; or the 450,000 Dutch; or the 2.788 million French; and so on.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Peter Hitchens has always been negative towards UKIP, believing them to be a distraction from the task of replacing the Tories with what he calls a "genuinely pro-British movement".
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Lennon said:

    "Poll coming out 19:30 will show that despite entire establishment media being against UKIP, the smears ain't working. Brits love underdogs."

    twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/467718756064456704

    Is this Ashcroft?

    I thought Ashcroft was scheduled for about 4pm (given last week...)
    I didn't look at the date on the tweet. It was the 17th, so I think it referred to the ComRes.

    Damn you for removing that post, I'd just written an entire 'theory' on the out come of it. ; )
    Save it. You might be able to tweak it to fit Lord Ashcroft's.

    All of your base are belong UKIP. Very!

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    edited May 2014
    Socrates said:


    That ad is not about 26 million Romanians and Bulgarians. It is about the unemployed in mainland Europe, including the likes of the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and France.

    It reads:

    26 million people in Europe are looking for work.

    And whose jobs are they after?

    There is a finger pointing out from the poster. It is directed at anyone who reads it.

    If Socrates is going to complain about Nick Clegg's claim that 3 million jobs will be lost if we leave the EU, to be consistent he should also condemn what is clearly and deliberately a poster designed to mislead.

    I thought I had already responded to this but clearly Vanilla's issues meant it didn't go through. Yes, it is an incorrect and misleading poster and UKIP shouldn't have done it. If Farage continues to repeat the claim in numerous interviews and discussions, it will be very wrong and I will condemn it more loudly. (For the record, I let the three million claim slip by the first few times Clegg used it.)

    Good on you Socrates. But no more than I expected.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.

    Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?

    Not yours, no.

    So are unemployed Swedish journalists after the jobs of unskilled British factory workers?

    Are you an unskilled factory worker?

    Nope. But that finger points to me just as much as anyone else. And the 26 million unemployed in the EU come from all EU member states. There are, for example, 2.872 million unemployed people in Germany. Are they all looking for jobs in the UK? Are the 440,000 unemployed Swedes; or the 107,000 Danes; or the 450,000 Dutch; or the 2.788 million French; and so on.

    None of the millions of unemployed unskilled workers in the EU with free movement into the UK is after your job.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    isam said:

    "I first heard of Nigel Farage’s alleged ‘car crash’ interview on BBC Friday night, when members of the audience at a school debate , to which I was speaking, had somehow learned that Mr Farage had done something dreadful. They knew it was dreadful, though they could not tell me what it was.

    On Saturday I watched the whole thing. I don’t think the interviewer’s technique, of incessant aggression and hostile questions (the answers to which he then talked over) would have damaged Mr Farage with any impartial listener. The whole line of questioning seemed to be based on the idea that it is self-evident that any distinction between British culture and any other culture must be the act of an evil person. Those who believe that aren’t going to vote UKIP anyway. The only bad moment for Mr Farage was when his media aide foolishly intervened on air, so making his boss look weak. But the immediate claims all over the media that the interview had *been* a car-crash may have damaged Mr Farage among those who will never listen to it. It is easily found on the Internet. See what you think"

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/

    I think Farage's interview was a significant misstep, but not the mortal wound some commentators would have you believe. Unfortunately Hitchens is such a reactionary, conservative (small c) and all-round unpleasant man that his 'support' of UKIP on this actually shifts me in the other direction.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.

    Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?

    I think I recall you saying you were a top rate tax payer and a director of a firm, so I wouldnt say the 26m Bulgarians and Romanians eligible to work in the UK were capable of doing your job.

    But if you were an unskilled worker on the minimum wage, your job would be available to anyone of a working age in the EU, which I think is closer to 480m, and I guess the adverts were aimed at those people.

    That ad is not about 26 million Romanians and Bulgarians. It is about the unemployed in mainland Europe, including the likes of the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and France.

    It reads:

    26 million people in Europe are looking for work.

    And whose jobs are they after?

    There is a finger pointing out from the poster. It is directed at anyone who reads it.

    If Socrates is going to complain about Nick Clegg's claim that 3 million jobs will be lost if we leave the EU, to be consistent he should also condemn what is clearly and deliberately a poster designed to mislead.


    Oh sorry my mistake. I forgot it was about the EU unemployed.

    Well the point still stands about minimum wage and unskilled jobs. People like you with highly paid jobs will see it and think "No they arent, so it doesnt affect me", but it will probably resonate with the target audience of the unskilled working class.

    I see the argument you are pushing, but you could probably say the same for any advert for any product if you wanted to be Mr Logic about it
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.

    Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?

    Not yours, no.

    So are unemployed Swedish journalists after the jobs of unskilled British factory workers?

    Are you an unskilled factory worker?

    Nope. But that finger points to me just as much as anyone else. And the 26 million unemployed in the EU come from all EU member states. There are, for example, 2.872 million unemployed people in Germany. Are they all looking for jobs in the UK? Are the 440,000 unemployed Swedes; or the 107,000 Danes; or the 450,000 Dutch; or the 2.788 million French; and so on.

    None of the millions of unemployed unskilled workers in the EU with free movement into the UK is after your job.

    And the vast majority are not after anyone's job in this country. They have homes, families and lives in the countries where they live. In fact, do we even know how much immigration from the EU is driven by unemployment at all? An ad saying 500 million EU citizens are entitled to your job might have made some sense. But that 26 million people are after your job claim is just dishonest scaremongering.

  • Patrick said:

    People always say UKIP are 'right wing' - whatever that really means. I think in BBC talk it just means 'bad'. But UKIP have some fairly statist non-libertarian interventionist views which will accord with the half of the WWC they are peeling away from Ed. If Farage cmes up with some lefty sounding domestic policy sound bites as well as the EU/immigration stuff he will attract more of this group.

    The likes of the BBC / Guardian always talk of the BNP as being right wing, but the few policies they do have, outside of the send "foreigners" somewhere or other, are [on the same scale of left vs right] very very left wing i.e nationalise everything.
    Well, if as seems to be happening, UKIP start to come under more serious scrutiny, many more people will see that they are a statist, lefty, non-pc, populist party. As that becomes more widely known then more WWC will move from the red camp to the purple but some of the small state, blue-rinse, polite, elderly, genteel ex-Tories will drfit back in to Dave's camp - esp if he throws some red meat on EU negotiations or some such. Farage eating the Labour vote is Ed's nightmare.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @annemcelvoy: Turns out UKIP has an Omerta on anyone except the leader speaking to press before Thurs in case they put their foot in it. Oh wait....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    People always say UKIP are 'right wing' - whatever that really means. I think in BBC talk it just means 'bad'. But UKIP have some fairly statist non-libertarian interventionist views which will accord with the half of the WWC they are peeling away from Ed. If Farage cmes up with some lefty sounding domestic policy sound bites as well as the EU/immigration stuff he will attract more of this group.

    The likes of the BBC / Guardian always talk of the BNP as being right wing, but the few policies they do have, outside of the send "foreigners" somewhere or other, are [on the same scale of left vs right] very very left wing i.e nationalise everything.
    Well, if as seems to be happening, UKIP start to come under more serious scrutiny, many more people will see that they are a statist, lefty, non-pc, populist party. As that becomes more widely known then more WWC will move from the red camp to the purple but some of the small state, blue-rinse, polite, elderly, genteel ex-Tories will drfit back in to Dave's camp - esp if he throws some red meat on EU negotiations or some such. Farage eating the Labour vote is Ed's nightmare.
    Funny that because some people on here are convinced UKIP are a Thatcherite right wingers!

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    People always say UKIP are 'right wing' - whatever that really means. I think in BBC talk it just means 'bad'. But UKIP have some fairly statist non-libertarian interventionist views which will accord with the half of the WWC they are peeling away from Ed. If Farage cmes up with some lefty sounding domestic policy sound bites as well as the EU/immigration stuff he will attract more of this group.

    The likes of the BBC / Guardian always talk of the BNP as being right wing, but the few policies they do have, outside of the send "foreigners" somewhere or other, are [on the same scale of left vs right] very very left wing i.e nationalise everything.
    Well, if as seems to be happening, UKIP start to come under more serious scrutiny, many more people will see that they are a statist, lefty, non-pc, populist party. As that becomes more widely known then more WWC will move from the red camp to the purple but some of the small state, blue-rinse, polite, elderly, genteel ex-Tories will drfit back in to Dave's camp - esp if he throws some red meat on EU negotiations or some such. Farage eating the Labour vote is Ed's nightmare.

    I am interested in the idea that flat taxes and significant cuts in public spending are corporatist and left wing. Can you elucidate?

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Hmm ... I've just had a pop-up banner at the top of this thread tell me that "2 criminals live close to you."

    Only two? This is Merseyside - surely we can do better than that? Or is just the bloke next door with the Ukip banner in his window?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    AndyJS said:

    Weather forecast now available for Thursday and for Nottingham and Birmingham it's heavy rain/showers and 15 degrees:

    http://www.bbc.com/weather/2641170?day=3

    Most of the country has a better than evens chance of 10mm of rain on Thursday. If you think the weather will affect turnout then the outlook is quite clear.

  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Fake Scotch gives whisky trade a multimillion-pound headache

    EUROPE is being flooded with millions of litres of fake whisky from India, according to the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA), which describes the international trade as “worrying”.

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/article1412105.ece
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited May 2014
    ''Turns out UKIP has an Omerta on anyone except the leader speaking to press before Thurs in case they put their foot in it. Oh wait....''

    How did long did it take the standard's posse of dreary semi-literate worthies calling themselves journalists to think that one up?

    'Omerta' is clumsily misused in this context. Not that whoever pretends to edit the Standard would ever notice...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    isam said:

    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    People always say UKIP are 'right wing' - whatever that really means. I think in BBC talk it just means 'bad'. But UKIP have some fairly statist non-libertarian interventionist views which will accord with the half of the WWC they are peeling away from Ed. If Farage cmes up with some lefty sounding domestic policy sound bites as well as the EU/immigration stuff he will attract more of this group.

    The likes of the BBC / Guardian always talk of the BNP as being right wing, but the few policies they do have, outside of the send "foreigners" somewhere or other, are [on the same scale of left vs right] very very left wing i.e nationalise everything.
    Well, if as seems to be happening, UKIP start to come under more serious scrutiny, many more people will see that they are a statist, lefty, non-pc, populist party. As that becomes more widely known then more WWC will move from the red camp to the purple but some of the small state, blue-rinse, polite, elderly, genteel ex-Tories will drfit back in to Dave's camp - esp if he throws some red meat on EU negotiations or some such. Farage eating the Labour vote is Ed's nightmare.
    Funny that because some people on here are convinced UKIP are a Thatcherite right wingers!

    Ask Nigel Farage. I believe he is the leader of UKIP.

    There would certainly be legs in a left of centre, socially conservative political party in this country - especially if there were PR - but UKIP is not it.

  • TSE in thread header: " ..... more than likely, Ed would still be PM, as the Cons need to 6-7% ahead to stop a net loss of seats to Labour."

    I think its rather more complex than that - for example Stephen Fisher's current projection shows the Tories 5.7% ahead of Labour at the next General Election, winning 316 seats, 40 more than Labour on 276 seats.
    In such circumstances Ed Miliband would most decidedly NOT be PM.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    I don't think I've seen a single Green/Labour/LD/UKIP web advert during this campaign. They've all been Conservative.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    CD13 said:

    Hmm ... I've just had a pop-up banner at the top of this thread tell me that "2 criminals live close to you."

    Only two? This is Merseyside - surely we can do better than that? Or is just the bloke next door with the Ukip banner in his window?

    I get that too - and I don't live anywhere like Merseyside. It is conveniently left vague how near is near - in the Highlands it might be a radius of 10 miles, here in my quiet town it would be rather more circumscribed; and as for Merseyside you can judge for yourself.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.

    Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?

    Not yours, no.

    So are unemployed Swedish journalists after the jobs of unskilled British factory workers?

    Are you an unskilled factory worker?

    Nope. But that finger points to me just as much as anyone else. And the 26 million unemployed in the EU come from all EU member states. There are, for example, 2.872 million unemployed people in Germany. Are they all looking for jobs in the UK? Are the 440,000 unemployed Swedes; or the 107,000 Danes; or the 450,000 Dutch; or the 2.788 million French; and so on.

    None of the millions of unemployed unskilled workers in the EU with free movement into the UK is after your job.

    And the vast majority are not after anyone's job in this country. They have homes, families and lives in the countries where they live. In fact, do we even know how much immigration from the EU is driven by unemployment at all? An ad saying 500 million EU citizens are entitled to your job might have made some sense. But that 26 million people are after your job claim is just dishonest scaremongering.

    It's been happening for 14 years. The people the poster is directed at already know the political class' version of reality is a lie.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited May 2014
    taffys said:

    ''Turns out UKIP has an Omerta on anyone except the leader speaking to press before Thurs in case they put their foot in it. Oh wait....''

    How did long did it take the standard's posse of dreary semi-literate worthies calling themselves journalists to think that one up?

    'Omerta' is clumsily misused in this context. Not that whoever pretends to edit the Standard would ever notice...

    It's particularly disappointing because Anne McElvoy could have made a very euphonious reference to a UKIP ukase.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    This is Merseyside - surely we can do better than that?

    Would it save time to count the honest people?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited May 2014
    DavidL, I think that you are bang on the money with that prediction, and its one I have been warming to for a wee while now. Coalition Government, the main Labour Opposition party led by Ed Miliband and Ed Balls, Better Together/Indy Ref, a Libdem slump in the polls. And now the Farage/UKIP polling bounce delivering them the kind of wall to wall campaign media scrutiny that they have for so long managed to dodge, and that has seen them fast become the nasty party or UK politics. Throw in a now very solid economic recovery, and you might be left wondering if this is the perfect Conservative brand detox strategy?

    There is no doubt that some of those Conservative defectors to UKIP are very much hoping that their actions would see the Conservative party being forced to swing right to embrace their ideal brand of Conservatism. It would be a real irony, if in fact their defection from the party to UKIP ended up having the opposite effect of the one they intended by leaving the Conservatives even more firmly entrenched on the centre ground and gaining support without them. There is no doubt that up here in Scotland, its Farage and UKIP rather than Cameron and the Conservatives that is drawing out protesters from the left onto the streets when they campaign up here these days.
    DavidL said:

    The tories on 35 with UKIP on 14%. Doesn't matter how many times you see it, it still seems counter-intuitive and downright weird.

    This is of course blasphemy but is it possible, just possible, that contrary to all the predictions to the contrary Cameron and Osborne have found support in the centre ground that pretty much outweighs what they have lost to the right?

    A ridiculous idea I know. Pretty much everyone on here except Richard Nabavi is persuaded that Cameron is a political incompetent who specialises in losing elections, even those he won near 100 additional seats in.

    Still...

  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Time the Lib Dems practiced what they preach - just had an election flyer through the door saying Welsh Jobs are at risk and only the Lib Dems will protect them and where was said flyer printed? Portsmouth!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Socrates said:

    AveryLP said:


    So the question needs to be asked of Nigel Farage is why his letter is using an unsubstantiated one-off claim by an individual police inspector to scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants for a crime which is relatively insignificant and rare?

    Answers on a postcard please.

    I think a police inspector's public statement about the crime area they are looking at to be a perfectly credible source. It's certainly a lot more credible than the three million jobs lie - but for some reason you've never complained about that.

    It's also Channel 4's own left-wing bias to say Farage is trying to "scapegoat a whole national group of immigrants". He did nothing of the sort.

    Just the usual Europhile smears.

    Are 26 million foreigners really after my job?

    Not yours, no.

    So are unemployed Swedish journalists after the jobs of unskilled British factory workers?

    Are you an unskilled factory worker?

    Nope. But that finger points to me just as much as anyone else. And the 26 million unemployed in the EU come from all EU member states. There are, for example, 2.872 million unemployed people in Germany. Are they all looking for jobs in the UK? Are the 440,000 unemployed Swedes; or the 107,000 Danes; or the 450,000 Dutch; or the 2.788 million French; and so on.

    None of the millions of unemployed unskilled workers in the EU with free movement into the UK is after your job.

    And the vast majority are not after anyone's job in this country. They have homes, families and lives in the countries where they live. In fact, do we even know how much immigration from the EU is driven by unemployment at all? An ad saying 500 million EU citizens are entitled to your job might have made some sense. But that 26 million people are after your job claim is just dishonest scaremongering.

    It's been happening for 14 years. The people the poster is directed at already know the political class' version of reality is a lie.

    UKIP is telling porkies. There are not 26 million unemployed Europeans looking to take the jobs of unskilled British workers.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @taffys

    The real way to save time is just to make up a figure based on prejudice, then state that as fact.
    (Not of course that anyone on here would do that)
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    @taffys

    The real way to save time is just to make up a figure based on prejudice, then state that as fact.
    (Not of course that anyone on here would do that)

    60% of the left-wing nutcases on here would, for sure.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    TSE in thread header: " ..... more than likely, Ed would still be PM, as the Cons need to 6-7% ahead to stop a net loss of seats to Labour."

    I think its rather more complex than that - for example Stephen Fisher's current projection shows the Tories 5.7% ahead of Labour at the next General Election, winning 316 seats, 40 more than Labour on 276 seats.
    In such circumstances Ed Miliband would most decidedly NOT be PM.

    Sorry Peter, I wasn't clear in the thread header.

    I meant to say, all the recent polls which have shown the Tories ahead, have only had the Tories 1/2% ahead, if the General election is like that, Ed will likely be PM.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Free-market UKIP supporters must be having a few second thoughts about the party at the moment"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Lord Ashcroft has told me*, that his weekly phone poll will be published every Monday at 4pm on conhome.

    *Not me personally, but his twitter followers last week.
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    Another dire figure for the Lib Dems.
    Council results likely to show following changes of control

    LAB GAINS Bristol from NOC
    Swindon from CON
    Croydon From CON
    Harrow from CON
    Merton from CON
    Redbridge from CON
    Bradford from NOC
    Calderdale from NOC
    Kirklees From NOC
    Stockport from NOC
    Walsalll From NOC
    Amber Valley from CON
    Cambridge From LD
    Crawley from CON
    Tamworth from CON
    Waveney from CON
    W Lancs from CON

    CON Gains Kingston from LD
    Winchester from NOC
    St Albans from NOC
    Purbeck From NOC

    CON losses to NOC Basildon
    Basingstoke

    LD losses fo NOC Three Rivers
    Portsmouth

    Any other changes of control expected?

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523


    UKIP is telling porkies. There are not 26 million unemployed Europeans looking to take the jobs of unskilled British workers.

    Well there certainly aren't 26 million after your job.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 28s

    The Ashcroft National Poll (16-18 May): Con 29%, Lab 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%. For details and analysis go to @ConHome, 4pm.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    MrJones said:


    UKIP is telling porkies. There are not 26 million unemployed Europeans looking to take the jobs of unskilled British workers.

    Well there certainly aren't 26 million after your job.
    MrJones said:


    UKIP is telling porkies. There are not 26 million unemployed Europeans looking to take the jobs of unskilled British workers.

    Well there certainly aren't 26 million after your job.

    Or anyone else's.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    We have crossover.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Anorak
    We have an excuse, we are to thick to do basic maths.
    George tells us the economy is booming, we look at our bills and paypackets and stare back blankly in disbelief.

    (97.5% of statistics are untrue)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 28s

    The Ashcroft National Poll (16-18 May): Con 29%, Lab 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%. For details and analysis go to @ConHome, 4pm.

    Ha, ha.

    That's just ridiculous.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Ouch. Bad poll for the tories that one.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Ashcroft:

    Lab 35%
    Con 29%
    UKIP 14%
    LD 9%
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    DavidL said:

    Ouch. Bad poll for the tories that one.

    All the polls seem to be very consistent on Labour. Much less so for the Tories.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    AndyJS said:

    Ashcroft:

    Lab 35%
    Con 29%
    UKIP 14%
    LD 9%

    The "Save Ed" Brigade can breath a sigh of relief....nailed on Lab landslide.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Broken, sleazy Labour & Tories on the slide.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I reinstate my earlier comment about the polls being in a state of ferment!

    No reason to disbelieve this poll though, any more than there was to disbelieve the Populus poll earlier.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:


    UKIP is telling porkies. There are not 26 million unemployed Europeans looking to take the jobs of unskilled British workers.

    Well there certainly aren't 26 million after your job.
    MrJones said:


    UKIP is telling porkies. There are not 26 million unemployed Europeans looking to take the jobs of unskilled British workers.

    Well there certainly aren't 26 million after your job.

    Or anyone else's.

    No, just you.

    http://www.wakefieldexpress.co.uk/news/local-news/update-men-from-dewsbury-and-heckmondwike-jailed-for-human-trafficking-1-6615353

    "But on arrival they were faced with squalid and cramped accommodation, long hours with barely any pay and beatings from Orsos if they disobeyed his orders.

    Workers lived in accommodation in Ravensthorpe, Batley, Heckmondwike and Bradford. Up to 50 men were kept in a single Batley house.

    Beatings were regularly dished out by Orsos. One of the house rules was that no one could ever say ‘no’ to him.

    They were then sent to work throughout Dewsbury, Bradford and Wakefield."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Give me about 15 mins and I'll have a new thread up.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Cough. Ashcroft. The bullshit polling continues.

    Ignore until after the Euros.

    Polls are a farce at the moment.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    It will be interesting to see if Lord Ashcroft's polls remain as volatile as this. These are major changes in a week where very little has happened.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167
    Tories can take solace in what Ed Miliband said this morning: "The polls go up and down"!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Recent polls are still in line with the 1% Lab lead the UKPR polling average is giving.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 28s

    The Ashcroft National Poll (16-18 May): Con 29%, Lab 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%. For details and analysis go to @ConHome, 4pm.

    Ha, ha.

    That's just ridiculous.

    Weird indeed, considering the prevailing wind and the same poll from last week. Ashcroft did remember to weight them, didn't he?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Average of Populus and Ashcroft = Lab lead 2.5%.

    That's broadly what we thought as of yesterday - so today's polls show no significant change.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @DavidL

    I mentioned it before. You need to wait till the tea leaves settle after the stirring the Euros are causing. Only then can the Great (non Romanian) Gypsy Rose Lee do a reading.
    OGH might be able to do it, but his hairstyle is all wrong....or completely missing?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 28s

    The Ashcroft National Poll (16-18 May): Con 29%, Lab 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%. For details and analysis go to @ConHome, 4pm.

    Ha, ha.

    That's just ridiculous.

    Very bouncy. I can see why he didn't include changes on the last poll ;-)
  • Re Ashcroft Poll delay : as my Maths tutor would always say - "Figures in brackets take longer to add up"
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    I do like the last line of Ashcroft's summary:

    "We will have to assume that the 3% of UKIP voters who think the Lib Dems have the best approach to Europe know what they are doing."
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    rogerh said:

    Another dire figure for the Lib Dems.
    Council results likely to show following changes of control

    LAB GAINS Bristol from NOC
    Swindon from CON
    Croydon From CON
    Harrow from CON
    Merton from CON
    Redbridge from CON
    Bradford from NOC
    Calderdale from NOC
    Kirklees From NOC
    Stockport from NOC
    Walsalll From NOC
    Amber Valley from CON
    Cambridge From LD
    Crawley from CON
    Tamworth from CON
    Waveney from CON
    W Lancs from CON

    CON Gains Kingston from LD
    Winchester from NOC
    St Albans from NOC
    Purbeck From NOC

    CON losses to NOC Basildon
    Basingstoke

    LD losses fo NOC Three Rivers
    Portsmouth

    Any other changes of control expected?

    Harrow, Merton, and Redbridge would be Labour gains from NOC.

    I think the Conservatives will lose Havering to NOC, due to a very strong UKIP vote and the implosion of Romford Conservative Association.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    DavidL said:

    Ouch. Bad poll for the tories that one.

    All the polls seem to be very consistent on Labour. Much less so for the Tories.

    There has been a tendency downwards in the Labour vote, 35% is getting close to the top of the range now but yes, there is a lot more volatility in the tory vote. When UKIP were doing them the most damage that was perhaps more understandable than it is now. Strange.



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Listen to the GOOD Lord and stop getting all your knickers in a twist.

    Statistics being what they are, and with all polls subject to margins of error, it is likely that these results are scattered around a mean; this currently looks like a very small advantage to Labour, and one which has undoubtedly narrowed since the half-way point in the parliament. While the Conservative share has held fairly steady over this time, Labour have receded.

    Nothing has changed in a week ! The true picture at the moment is

    LD 9
    UKIP 14.5
    Con 32
    Lab 33.5

    Just add his polls up and take the midpoints. Simplistic but probably true.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @TSE

    You could call it Fantasy Fortnight - Tories leading or marooned in the 20s? Take your pick.

    @DavidL - inexplicable, all seems very odd.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ouch. Bad poll for the tories that one.

    All the polls seem to be very consistent on Labour. Much less so for the Tories.

    There has been a tendency downwards in the Labour vote, 35% is getting close to the top of the range now but yes, there is a lot more volatility in the tory vote. When UKIP were doing them the most damage that was perhaps more understandable than it is now. Strange.



    Ashcroft consistent with Tories on 32% +/- MOE but not getting the smoothing right
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Others 13%, tories 29%, does anyone really think that at the 2015GE that will be the result?
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Well no-one can accuse Lord Ashcroft of skewing his polls to the advantage of the Tories! Ironic this poll is on the same day the Tories take the lead with Populus.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited May 2014

    I consider the Tory party to be just as corrupt as any other party and these attempts to claim moral superiority are just farcical. A lot of your MPs should have been in jail for their actions in the last Parliament. Another should be on charges now for taking payments. You are just as bad as all the rest. Bond was just stupid enough to try and pretend the Tories were any different.

    But nobody's claiming moral superiority for their party except you, Richard. All I have been arguing is the especial inferiority of UKIP. When it comes to institutional moral incompetence, you can discuss all you like who's second, third of fifth, but it's crystal clear who's bottom of the heap. And this is a farcical position for a party that campaigns on a NOTA ticket to get itself into.

    That you're denying this and trying to suggest that others are somehow worse, by hairsplitting over who's got more criminals, and therefore you've won, shows that you've comprehensively blown this argument. You will be laughed at if you try to campaign on it.

    So for 2015, you'd better not discuss corruption in public life because your boys wrote the manual.

    But you'd better not discuss immigration either because we know it's just a BNP dog whistle.

    You'd better not discuss gay marriage because most people are fine with it and we'll only remember that mediaeval UKIP loony who thinks it causes floods.

    You'd better not mention women's issues because then somebody will bring up Godfrey Bloom.

    You'd better not mention HS2 because somebody might tactlessly remember out loud that you wanted several of those last time around (with the trains in traditional colours).

    You'd better not mention defence because you want more armed forces but for those forces to be idle.

    You'd better not mention tax because then we'll find out you quite like bankers, which is not a widely held position.

    What does that leave for UKIP to mention that's not toxic? Why can't you see this?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    antifrank said:

    I reinstate my earlier comment about the polls being in a state of ferment!

    No reason to disbelieve this poll though, any more than there was to disbelieve the Populus poll earlier.

    But I don't like this one!
This discussion has been closed.