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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Same sex marriage and the Tories. Interactive chart showin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Same sex marriage and the Tories. Interactive chart showing how those who remain respond differently than GE2010 CON voters
Just look at how 2010 CON voters view the same sex marriage issue compared with those who now say they are voting for the party. The first group show by 53% to 39% that they are against.
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There is a small difference between Con2010 voters and current Con voters on Europe and immigration, but Mike is right to pick up on gay marriage - probably the biggest single reason why Conservatives are switching to Ukip. But if the party wants to be electable in 20 years it can't be on the wrong side of the argument.
Support - 57% .. Oppose 33% .. Don't Know 10%
ARSE interviewed 1237 Bedford voters on 11 May 2013
Con -31
Ukip -92
C10 -51
Total -60
Would vote to remain in the EU on the new terms [after renegotiation]
Con 51%
Ukip 16%
C10 41%
Total 45%
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/05/03/immigration-and-europe-give-ukip-appeal/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/6715
Six children killed by a house fire in Derby will be remembered in a church service and at a community event later.
Mick and Mairead Philpott, the parents of the children, were jailed last month for manslaughter, together with their friend Paul Mosley.
Six white doves will be released as part of a community day at Osmaston Park, held a year to the day since five of the children died.
The church service at St George's Catholic Church starts at 18:30 BST.
It will be given by Father Alan Burbidge, who conducted the children's funerals.
"The children are to be well remembered but also we want to pray for everybody of the extended family and those still grieving, the older children and the grandparents," he said.
A group of relatives and friends, including Mairead Philpott's father and Paul Mosley's brother, started walking from Skegness on Tuesday and are due to arrive back in Derby for the Osmaston Park event.
They have been raising money for Catch Me When I Fall, a fund which has been set up to raise money for ill children.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-22486040
I suspect gay marriage is way down the list and will only feature in the grievances of the already agrieved.
Is it UKIP policy to have an EU referendum? Or would a UKIP govt consider that yhey had a mandate without referendum for withdrawal?
The urban tory party of the present leadership simply fails the "people like us" sniff test for the older rural traditional tory voter.
Shadow transport secretary Maria Eagle, who has repeatedly attacked the ‘fragmentation’ of the current train system, is understood to be spearheading the move.
But Labour Left-wingers say the idea is being ‘stifled’ by Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls on the grounds that the party should not make potentially costly spending commitments two years away from the next General Election.
One senior Labour MP said: ‘Maria is simply trying to float the plan for discussion, Balls is trying to kill it off at birth. But how are we going to convince the voters if we don’t have any firm policies?’
However, others warned that nationalising the railways was a ‘multi-billion-pound plan’ that Mr Balls was right to block.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2323069/Labour-split-rail-nationalisation-plan-Left-wing-plot-spend-billions-bringing-network-public-ownership.html#ixzz2T3nyfeZq
There's not a huge difference between current and former Con voters on those "most important issues" questions
Mr. OblitusSumMe, I'm sorry to hear about your past situation. Hopefully things are rather better now.
On democracy, I'd suspect that monarchy (either in an absolutist form or backed up by a strong oligarchy/aristocracy) is less liable to collapse as a system. When one monarch gets axed the new one would rather wear a crown than proclaim himself an equal citizen. Similarly, when democracies did form in the past they might be prone to falling under the sway of a powerful single leader who became an effective king.
I'm not all that up on the French Revolution, but isn't that basically what happened from the axing of Louis to the coronation of Napoleon?
Rome, of course, lasted for a long time as a republic *after* getting rid of Tarquin Superbus, but eventually it did succumb to personality politics and drift into becoming an empire.
@MSmithsonPB: 62% tell YouGov S Times poll that there should be a referendum on EU, with vast majority saying it should be held before GE2015
Oh
They support it because it's the right thing to do.
Shame you need to look for political advantage in every decision
This is, of course, the party of clause 28. Always behind the curve !
"For all their symbolic power, the gay marriage proposals would be a tiny and almost irrelevant step. In America, the battle is about the vast number of legal rights – 1,138 of them by one count – that are conferred on married couples but not those in same-sex partnerships. In Britain, the Civil Partnership Act 2004 granted all the rights of a married couple to anyone who registered for such a union. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/9257301/Gay-marriage-importing-Americas-culture-wars-has-backfired-on-David-Cameron.html
So it seems that a vote for UKIP is a vote to leave the EU. No referendum req.
EDIT
I spoke too soon: http://www.ukip.org/index.php/issues/policy-pages/what-we-stand-for
Are you saying the Tories did not introduce clause 28 ?
Then again, I'm reminded of sage advice on the previous thread.
I don't expect the Mercedes to have a bad start, but they're clearly concerned about lack of race pace through eating the tyres. I hope they're genuinely worried and this isn't just a cunning ploy to lull their rivals into a sense of false security:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22493986
Vettel, Raikkonen and Alonso is the order of the title race, and also 3rd, 4th and 5th on the grid tomorrow. So, that should be set up nicely. Perez starts 6th (Massa got a 3 place penalty for impeding Webber during qualifying) and it'll be interesting to see how the Mexican can do.
Despite the nonsense over Europe tories are a fairly loyal bunch as a whole and are inclined to follow their leader.
For me, the rise in UKIP is simply the reflection of not having a credible opposition party that any sane person would want to support. Those who have been hurt and frustrated by the long recession know Labour are not the answer and they seek an alternative. No doubt some might justify that decision by reference to gay marriage or immigration policies (despite the government's successes in that area) or even the EU but to say that is why they are now with the NOTA, sorry UKIP, party is to confuse cause and effect.
The same tim who supports unlimited low skilled immigration and higher population densities.
There wouldn't be many spare bedrooms for the poor under those circumstances.
"Cameron’s best line is that Britain is in a “global race”. It is getting harder with each passing month to argue that our membership of the EU is a help, rather than a hindrance to our performance in that contest."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/10050591/An-EU-referendum-is-the-political-mouse-that-roared.html
Are the SDP-Cameroons moving towards Better Off Out?!!
I think it does. These grumpy older men are disproportionately victims of the recession since 2008. They have been forced into early retirement, their limited skills have not been valued and their wages have fallen in real terms. As they don't have such large mortgages they have not been compensated by lower mortgage rates and they have seen their standard of living falling. They see their children struggling to get jobs and housing and blame immigration.
Above all, and we see it on here daily, as a group they think that there should be some simple answers to the complex problems the government faces and that if they were just a bit more like Maggie (as they imagine her rather than the more complex reality) this would have all been sorted by now. Think of the viewpoint of a Alanbrooke without the intelligence or knowledge.
The bottom line is that there aren't many Conservatives who are now voting Ukip simply because of immigration or Europe (or even gay marriage, but to less extent).
And that's aside from the point that only about 50% of Ukip voters are C10 voters - which is nationwide polling. In actual elections like Eastleigh, South Shields and the recent county councils there's a different story.
Those Conservative voters who are currently protesting about what the government is or isn't doing will be easiest to win back. We need to distinguish these from Ukip's voters who are voting because of their policies (very few) and the other protestors who dislike all other parties because they're part of the out of touch elite (which now includes the Lib Dems).
One final set of numbers. Most important issues facing the country/you and your family. No huge differences, considering the number of voters the party has lost.
Immigration
All 57/17
Con 68/24
C10 73/26
Ukip 90/38
Europe
All 21/10
Con 33/14
C10 34/16
Ukip 49/28
http://www.migrationwatchuk.co.uk/pressReleases#352
No, I don't think so. They are taking 2 votes from the Tories for each one they take from Labour.
It's a party mostly of the non urban middle classes. The people that look at Cameron and don't think he's "One of us", it's the people that visit London and look around in bewilderment, feeling like they are overseas.
It's the party of those that want to "take back their country"
I think they are doomed to fail, but that's another discussion
UKIP support:
12% of ABC1
21% of C2DE
Scratch that. You're right, they're taking votes from current Con more than current Lab.
Arpad Busson, whose personal fortune is estimated at £145m, donated £20,000 to the group which is campaigning for new press laws. Other donors include Guy Chambers, a producer for former Take That singer Williams, and the science writer and TV producer Simon Singh, the Observer has discovered.
Hacked Off, which sat in on late-night talks at Ed Miliband's Commons office when the royal charter on newspaper regulation was agreed by the three political parties, refuses to reveal its donors.
On its website, the only funding it discloses is a £50,000 grant during 2012-13 from the Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust and more than £20,000 it says it is due to receive from the Journalism Foundation, a charitable body set up by the owners of The Independent newspapers.
The site also says that actor Hugh Grant will be passing on the damages he receives from his legal action against News International for hacking his mobile phone voicemails.
Last week heiress Jemima Khan confirmed that she had donated £5,000 to the group.
Busson, who had two children with model Elle Macpherson and is married to the actress Uma Thurman, gave £20,000, according to a well-placed source. The French-born financier, who founded the Ark academy of schools, did not respond to queries, but he is understood to have long been a keen supporter of the goals of the group, fronted by Grant.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2013/may/11/
The inevitable consequences of which are downward pressure on wages, upward pressure on house prices, higher population densities in poorer areas and a more unequal society.
I would have unlimited immigration for anyone able to earn £1000 per week.
Fraser Nelson's interesting piece underplays the opposition to civil partnerships, though. As an MP at the time I was strongly lobbied against by religious constituents who saw it as the thin end of the wedge to gay marriage - and they were of course factually correct, as it turns out. Gay adoption, now seen as almost entirely uncontroversial, was also a big flashpoint, with a good many people seeing it as leading, if not directly to abuse, at least to encouragement of children to "become gay". I felt at the time that was being quite brave in resisting all this, and I'm pleasantly surprised by how swiftly opinion has changed. But UKIP voters are presumably dismayed.
As someone noted recently, it misses the point about UKIP to describe it as racist - it isn't the driving force behind most UKIP votuing. What it is is reactionary, in the literal sense of reacting against changes in society. Ethnic changes are another example for them of modern undesirable trends.
I don't think that parties that are essentially comfortable with modern society can really compromise on any of this without being seen through as transparent hypocrites. We should be willing to sympathise with rather than condemn people who are upset by rapid social change around them. But it's cynical and wrong to pretend we can or will reverse it.
Now that might occur with some decisive break of the UK leaving or it might be a slow process of the EU becoming more centralized but excluding us. Either way its going to happen, maybe within 5 years of maybe within 50. Only the manner and timescale are still to be decided.
He clearly hasn't bothered to even look at what he's rambling about "
Oh the irony from someone with 2886 posts and counting - and that's just since vanilla came in!
I am only sorry that in this instance I agree with Mike in that it does account for some of the increase in UKIP support (as I surmised several weeks ago).
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4924195/UKIP-to-win-8-Tory-seats-at-the-next-General-Election-in-2015.html
https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/333492721664811008
EDIT
Could UKIP topple Messrs Cameron and Osborne at the next election? That would be well worth staying up for. :-)
Tatton
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/tatton/
Witney
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/witney/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-22495174
With adoption, the important thing is that kids find good permanent families as quickly as possible. Personally I believe that whether the parents are gay or straight has no bearing on whether they will be good parents or not. But kids don't benefit from reducing the number of people helping them, especially as the Catholic agencies typically specialised in the more difficult kids to place
http://www.catholicherald.co.uk/news/2013/01/24/catholic-charities-at-risk-after-adoption-agency-ruled-to-be-discriminating
[eliminating charity status would be very significant]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/apr/26/catholic-adoption-agency-gay-lesbian
[last sentence: while some have closed, others have severed their links with the catholic church. Either way you are driving people who were helping out of providing a much needed service]
EDIT
Also presumably a break up of the coalition. Double-drama!
I don't need your pity that I still don't like the idea that innocent, vulnerable children can be forced into unnatural adoption situations. I don't like being told "and they were of course factually correct, as it turns out" as if I was right by accident. I don't appreciate being preached at and having my morals dictated to me.
"it misses the point about UKIP to describe it as racist - it isn't the driving force behind most UKIP votuing(sic)." Misses the point? Most? What point are you trying to make here, Mr Woolas?
I felt at the time that was being quite brave in resisting all this Nice to know you felt brave. [swoon] My hero. How ever did you cope with the pressure? Diddums. Here, have a lollipop.
A upper middle class Higher managerial, administrative or professional
B middle class Intermediate managerial, administrative or professional
C1 lower middle class Supervisory or clerical and junior managerial, administrative or professional
C2 skilled working class Skilled manual workers
D working class Semi and unskilled manual workers
E Those at the lowest levels of subsistence Casual or lowest grade workers, pensioners and others who depend on the welfare state for their income
The grades are often grouped into ABC1 and C2DE and these are taken to equate to middle class and working class respectively. Only around 2% of the UK population is identified as upper class,[3] and this group is not included in the classification scheme.
Source: NRS
Social Class Splits 2012:
Class: Men % Of Total: Women % of Total: Class Total
AB: 13.2% 12.6% 25.8%
C1 15.4% 14.0% 29.4%
C2 9.5% 10.5% 20.0%
DE 9.9% 14.7% 24.6%
Source: www.evolution-insights.com
Comparing this to a B&B refusing black or Irish people is irrelevant - there is no religious locus in colour or race.
The question for me is whether children are better off by preventing people providing a service that benefits them? In this case, clearly the answer is no. If the charities have strong religious beliefs that prevent them from complying with the law then they should be provided with a safe harbour: so long as they make adequate provisions to make sure that prospective parents who happen to be gay are not disadvantaged by their religious beliefs then their should be a way to allow them to continue to provide the service.
That way more children get homes, the gay parents aren't disadvantaged, and you continue to encourage the charitable impulse among those willing to help out with the neediest in society.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2323136/Tory-MP-triggered-Deputy-Speaker-rape-case-taking-alleged-victim-police-station-make-bombshell-claims.html
Police launched their rape investigation into Commons Deputy Speaker Nigel Evans as a result of the actions of a fellow Conservative MP, it can be revealed.
The MP accompanied one of the alleged victims to a police station while he made the allegations that triggered Mr Evans’s bombshell arrest last weekend.
Last night the MP, whose identity is being withheld by The Mail on Sunday, said: ‘It is important for legal reasons that I make absolutely no comment.’
A literal interpretation of the Bible (an approach I don't adopt) states (or at least implies) that homosexuality is a sin. Of course, Catholics aren't fundamentalists, so rely on the Church's interpretation of the Bible rather than the specific words. But I'm sure you knew that.
It says: chief income earner's occupation.
Most of the time, a party's leadership should be leading its members. Occasionally, the membership steers the party.
Personally, I'm much more concerned about the ridiculous overdevelopment of Cambridge than I am interested in the govt's instructions to churches.
I don't want any largescale housing developments in my village. I don't actually want them in anybody else's backyard either. How to avoid it? Substantially reducing net immigration would be a good place to start. When that popular and reasonable view is described as 'reactionary', we plead guilty.
Con 290 .. Lab 280 .. LibDem 43 .. SNP 10 .. PC 3 .. Ukip 2 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 1 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
What government instructions to the churches did you have in mind ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/local-elections/10048826/Councillor-disowns-daughter-after-she-unseats-him-in-election.html
What ridiculous overdevelopment?
The government allowing churches to decide whether or not they will marry gay people: government telling churches what to do.
The government banning churches from marrying gay people: government not telling churches what to do.
Or should we just ignore you any time you cite an article or tweet in support of an argument?
"Con 290 .. Lab 280 .. LibDem 43 .. SNP 10 .. PC 3 .. Ukip 2 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 1 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18"
Your ARSE seems to have been lured away from evidence based polling into something altogether more Mephistophelian called Wishful Thinking.
I disagree with Nick.
You sympathise with people who don't agree with left wing views on social change? i suppose we just havent realised that youre right yet? there there.... How patronising
Racism isn't the driving force behind most ukip voting? How passive aggressive would you like to be?
Filthy condescension from someone who should know better
Meanwhile .... Polling on the Klingon In/Out referendum due next week - Will the United Klingon Intergalatic Party -UKIP, prevail ?!?
The driving force behind Ukip appears to be much more what they are against rather than what they are for.
Nick says UKIP voters are not racist and are not anti-gay, and two PB UKIP voters are furious with him!
There are good things and bad things about this country. Some of the changes are good, some are bad. There will be considerable disagreeement as to which were good and which were bad. But no serious party can deal with a party that has no policies except to seek to turn the clock back to a time that never existed.
A sense of mission for the country.
Inclusive.
Not exclusive.
Outward looking.
Not inward looking.
Optimistic about our future.
Not simply hankering back to the past.
There will be some people who say that a UKIP strategy or a Lynton Crosby strategy may just work.
Set one group of people against another.
Those in work against those out of work.
Those in the public sector against the private sector.
North against South.
I say it’s our job to show a different way forward.
Because we believe it.
And it is the only way our country can succeed.
One Nation is not just a slogan.
It is not a Labour idea or a Conservative idea.
It is a British idea.
A country that acknowledges the difficulties, accepts the anxieties, knows that times are going to be hard, but that is confident that change can come.
A country that knows that we work best when we work together.
That knows that we won the War and rebuilt after the War because of that vision.
A country where everybody is given the chance to play their part.
And everybody is expected to do so.
That’s what One Nation Labour stands for.
That’s the future I offer our country.
That’s the Britain we will rebuild together.
http://labourlist.org/2013/05/ed-milibands-speech-to-progress-conference/
Clearly, so much more substantive than the Tories or UKIP...
Mr. Antifrank, whilst I agree most UKIP voters would probably be against change the party's central plank, leaving the EU, would be a very significant change. Indeed, UKIP advocates a more significant change to the UK than any other party (excepting the SNP).
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/05/11/osborne-star-wars-lucas-film-star-wars-jokes_n_3259897.html
Traditional marriage being privileged, grammar schools , UK independence, strict immigration controls....
it's just that until recently, they could set the tone of the narrative unopposed
1. What Peter Kellner actually said at the Progress conference yesterday.
2. The newspaper reports today about Oakshytes antics against Clegg.
Until it musters a serious answer on its supposed main subject, it's a zero issue party, campaigning on this basis:
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/down_with_this_sort_of_thing.jpg
Nick says UKIP voters are not racist and are not anti-gay, and two PB UKIP voters are furious with him!
Nope Nick uses the same sort of sneering innuendo to make the claims. damning with faint praise as it used to be known.
Sorry to see you buying into that.
hardly angry or furious, I just disagree
communism isn't the driving force behind most Labour voting, as a UKIP supporter I sympathise with rather than condemn with those who think gay marriage and mass immigration are important
If JosiasJessop thinks that the five storey block of flats on Trumpington Water Meadows is an appropiate welcome to visitors on the main road from London to Cambridge, he's a lucky chap. He'll be able to vote for any of the other three main parties at the next GE.
The approach in Cambridge is now for highly intensive new housing developments, with more people housed/acre than ever before ---'lets cram 'em in'.
I am told that this is because it is what the high tech businesses in Cambridge 'want'. I don't believe it.
South Thanet
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/thanetsouth/
North Thanet
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/thanetnorth/
Sittingbourne and Sheppey
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/sittingbourneandsheppey/
Forest of Dean
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/forestofdean/
Aylesbury
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/aylesbury/
Great Yarmouth
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/greatyarmouth/
Boston and Skegness
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/bostonandskegness/
East Worthing and Shoreham.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/worthingeastandshoreham/
and possibly NW Cambridgeshire
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/cambridgeshirenorthwest/
http://survation.com/2013/05/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/
"The row over exemptions for faith-based adoption agencies dates back to 2007, when the regulations were introduced. At the time, the then Archbishop of Westminster, Cardinal Cormac Murphy O'Connor, warned that the 11 Catholic adoption agencies would close rather than place children with gay couples. ... While some agencies have closed, others have severed their links with the church in order to stay open."
That seems reasonable supporting evidence to me.
Are you telling me the Guardian is wrong?
I doubt that many people would actually be that interested in my views on the EU, but should there be a desire from others for an extended essay on that niche subject, I'll try to put one together when I have some free time. They would not necessarily be what people assume.
“Of course you can put the clock back and you often do. If a clock is showing the wrong time, you put it back or forward, whichever is necessary, without the slightest hesitation.
“If a mistake has been made we ought to put it right if we can.
“We ought always to be on our guard against those who whisper in our ear, ‘It’s done now and it can’t be undone’. Those are commonly the voices of cowardice or indolence and sometimes of downright evil intent.
“The mistake Britain made in becoming a part of the European Economic Community is not irreversible.”