... I'm fairly sure that whenever "Gordon Brown" is the answer to the question, either the question or the answer is wrong. Mr Brown set out his vision for Union a few months ago. As I wrote at the time, I didn't find his Great Idea terribly compelling...
... each of Brown, Alexander, and Darling remind everyone of the Brown government. It sort of sits ill that the future of the Union be left in the hands of men who did so much economic and cultural damage to the very entity they now seek to protect.
... There is one Scottish politician still alive and thriving, although no longer representing the Edinburgh Pentlands seat where my branch of Young Conservatives once spent an afternoon delivering leaflets. He has a London seat – but so what? The whole point of the Union is that Scots can succeed both north and south of the border.
This man addressed the Scottish Conservative conference in Perth in, I think, 1987 – it may have been 1988 – with an unscripted speech that stands out in my memory as one of the most uplifting, passionate Tory defences of the Union I've ever heard. I was only a teenager then, I admit it, a youngster still. But his oratory shook me to tears, and his command of that art is not diminished by time. So whatever you've been able to contribute to the campaign so far, Sir Malcolm, please find energy for more. Both your countries, Scotland and Britain, need you.
I bet Cammy is regretting the 5 year fixed term now, this summer would be ideal the way the cards have moved in his favour.
I don't agree, there is enough economic upside left until this time next year to allow wage growth to feed through into wages to neutralise any last shadow of a doubt that Ed and Ed have got no economic plan.
Probably a Pole or Czech flying that Spitfire too!
With the AIFE broadcast we are truly blessed by the fruitcakes this election!
Quiz time
Number of days spent in England by St George?
I see your English Democrats and raise you a Britain First
That PEB is disgusting.
A shame they use Enoch in it...
One of the speeches he made which foretold almost exactly what would happen with mass immigration was "The Road to National Suicide". He predicted that a lack of criticism from politicians of the behaviour of a tiny percentage of immigrant extremists would whip up anger and frustration from those who were already here, and the two extremes would feed off each other... PPB's like this are evidence he was correct, in my opinion.
I bet Cammy is regretting the 5 year fixed term now, this summer would be ideal the way the cards have moved in his favour.
I don't agree, there is enough economic upside left until this time next year to allow wage growth to feed through into wages to neutralise any last shadow of a doubt that Ed and Ed have got no economic plan.
Just catching up from Doha, waiting for the Vietnam transfer - efficient place. I offended one chap at the transfer desk by politely asking if he spoke English - seemed likely but wrong to assume the whole world does - and he said "You think I'm like a black person who doesn't speak English?" When I looked bemused, he said he was only joking...er...
AndyJS - second Avery's advice two threads back on the Stockholm/Helsinki ideas - all of them including the ferry are worth doing.
If the polls stay very level I expect we'll see lots of quirky constituency results! The Euros are announced by borough and may give some useful hints. I tend to agree that they won't change very much once the Euros and Newark have been absorbed, but so much of the change is UKIP-driven that it really hinges on what the very different defectors from the other parties to UKI do next year.
I recall your posts you made about polls with Labour 5 plus ahead and people seemingly having made up their minds...now it seems a different picture altogether. I had a friend round this evening who is 100% going to vote UKIP next week, usually a Tory, but will vote Tory at the GE.. an interesting "anecdote
Oh anecdotally, my parents, Labour voters from council houses who worked in the public sector most of their lives are both voting UKIP for the first time in the Euros
As am I!
My mum said she would never let me in the house if I voted Tory when I was younger...
I've come to the conclusion that inevitable pain of deindustrialisation has permanently damaged the Tory image and they'll never recover form it without a rebrand. A UKIP-Tory merger down the line could thus pay dividends.
The Conservatives suffered a blow from 1990-97 from which they've never recovered. It resulted in both right and left-wing Conservatives abandoning the party.
Ukip faces a “cash-for-Euro-seats” scandal after forcing MEPs to donate large sums and threatening to bar those who refused from standing again, its former deputy leader says.
Ex-Ukip insiders have also raised concerns that the party favoured wealthy MEP candidates before this month’s European elections.
Two leading candidates for the May 22 poll, and the partner of a third, donated or lent the party tens of thousands of pounds about the time they were selected for safe seats, according to an analysis of Electoral Commission records.
No new MEP candidates from the Labour or Conservative party have made declarable donations in the past four years. Three Liberal Democrat candidates who have donated large amounts have not been given winnable seats.
From the outside (outside the inner circle I mean) the Natrass deselection looked very dodgy. As part of their aim to increase the professionalism of their MEPs UKIP decided to do a series of interviews with sitting MEPs and prospective candidates to look at their presentational skills. The panel seems to me to have been an attempt (a successful one for its aims) to ensure that anyone not in favour with the central party organisation would not get through the process.
I think Natrass was poorly treated by UKIP but unfortunately he has gone down in my estimation by forming a party with some extremely dodgy characters including former BNP members who had tried to get closer ties between the BNP and UKIP and were thrown out of UKIP when this came to light. In the East Midlands their candidates included former UKIP members who were kicked out for making racist statements.
Natrass could have the core of a healthy Eurosceptic party but unfortunately he has chosen the wrong people to ally himself with and has put antipathy to UKIP above any other consideration when choosing these people.
Well, there's nothing objectionable in the first half of the English Democrats broadcast, which has simply said no to Sharia law, no to mass immigration, no to EU laws.
Ukip faces a “cash-for-Euro-seats” scandal after forcing MEPs to donate large sums and threatening to bar those who refused from standing again, its former deputy leader says.
Ex-Ukip insiders have also raised concerns that the party favoured wealthy MEP candidates before this month’s European elections.
Two leading candidates for the May 22 poll, and the partner of a third, donated or lent the party tens of thousands of pounds about the time they were selected for safe seats, according to an analysis of Electoral Commission records.
No new MEP candidates from the Labour or Conservative party have made declarable donations in the past four years. Three Liberal Democrat candidates who have donated large amounts have not been given winnable seats.
From the outside (outside the inner circle I mean) the Natrass deselection looked very dodgy. As part of their aim to increase the professionalism of their MEPs UKIP decided to do a series of interviews with sitting MEPs and prospective candidates to look at their presentational skills. The panel seems to me to have been an attempt (a successful one for its aims) to ensure that anyone not in favour with the central party organisation would not get through the process.
I think Natrass was poorly treated by UKIP but unfortunately he has gone down in my estimation by forming a party with some extremely dodgy characters including former BNP members who had tried to get closer ties between the BNP and UKIP and were thrown out of UKIP when this came to light. In the East Midlands their candidates included former UKIP members who were kicked out for making racist statements.
Natrass could have the core of a healthy Eurosceptic party but unfortunately he has chosen the wrong people to ally himself with and has put antipathy to UKIP above any other consideration when choosing these people.
Anyone else noticed Labour's polling starts to crater shortly after they decide to give Nick Clegg a kicking?
"Never hate your enemies, it affects your judgement."
Indeed. That is what is currently destroying the once all-conquering Scottish Labour Party. Hatred is consuming them from the inside out.
Other examples abound here at PB. The virulent Scott P is my current favourite. Him and his chums are doing irreparable damage to the body politic they profess to love. But they just cannot help themselves. It is disgusting, yet fascinating, to witness. Like one of those time-lapse videos of a carcasse decaying.
It's worse than that: my understanding is that Lewisham council is counting on Saturday. Not sure why the PA list isn't reporting that.
Personally I dont feel it's quite the same if dawn isnt breaking when you leave the count but counting the next day is probably more sensible, it's not as if there is any urgency to it.
Got a range of Euro election leaflets now, here in deepest Sussex.
The UKIP and Conservative ones are effective and concentrate mostly on issues relevant to the election. The messages are much as you'd expect, and none the worse for that.
The Labour one is just bizarre; it looks as though they are deliberately trying to con voters into thinking this is the general election, as the two main themes are the 'cost of living crisis' and the NHS, and much of the rest is about standard Milibandisms equally unrelated to either the Euro or local elections. There may well be some puzzled Labour voters surprised to find that David Cameron is still PM after May 22nd and that Labour hasn't delivered any of its pledges (BTW, is there a 'cost of living crisis', when inflation is at a multi-year low? And, inasmuch as there is, is it obvious that voting for high-spending Labour councils is a smart response?).
The Green leaflet is also a bit confused about which election it relates to, although not as bad as Labour's. But it's reasonably effective - the front-page strapline of 'Taking your side in Europe' struck me as one of the best slogans. There was one odd bit, though; apparently the Greens want a 'Europe that allows decisions to be taken more locally'. Really? So they are now onside for Cameron's renegotiation, and now oppose wind farms where locals object?
The oddest one of all was from Mike's favourite, the grammatically-challenged 'An Independence from Europe'. It is tiny - about 10 cm by 15 cm - and printed mainly in pale blue, in a small typeface, against a patterned background which is a sort of pale union jack. A quarter of the text on the back is blue text on a lighter blue background. With the help of a magnifying glass and a bright light, I was able to read it, just, and actually the content is not bad. But I can't imagine anyone else read it, certainly not amongst the potentially most receptive demographic of 50+ year olds with deteriorating eyesight. Very odd.
Interestingly, London is the only constituency in the whole UK where the Conservatives and Labour are the top two parties. Yet another sign of how out of touch London has become with the rest of the island?
London Lab 1/4 Con 10/3 UKIP 12/1 Grn 100/1 LD 150/1
William Hill - Euro election in Great Britain, by constituency: Party With The Most Votes?
East Midlands UKIP 11/10 Con 7/4 Lab11/4 LD 150/1 Grn250/1
East of England UKIP 2/5 Con 7/4 Lab 66/1 LD 200/1 Grn 250/1
London Lab 1/4 Con 10/3 UKIP 12/1 Grn 100/1 LD 150/1
North East England Lab 1/50 UKIP 12/1 Con 50/1 Grn 200/1 LD 200/1
North West England Lab 3/10 UKIP 7/2 Con 10/1 LD 150/1 Grn 200/1
Scotland SNP 1/4 Lab 11/4 Con 100/1 UKIP 100/1 LD200/1
South East England UKIP 8/11 Con EVS Grn 150/1 Lab 150/1 LD 150/1
South West England UKIP 3/10 Con 12/5 LD 33/1 Lab 80/1 Grn 250/1
Wales Lab 1/12 UKIP 11/1 Con 16/1 PC 20/1 LD 150/1
West Midlands UKIP 4/11 Lab 11/4 Con 8/1 LD 150/1 Grn 200/1
Yorkshire and the Humber Lab 2/7 UKIP 10/3 Con 12/1 LD 150/1 Grn 200/1
The SW the only place where Lab are less likely to top the vote than the LDs even, it seems. We don't really go for Lab down this way, that is clear - I often try to give Labour the benefit the doubt, as I suspect growing up in such unfertile territory for them may slant my instinctive view, but they don't appear to be gaining much round this way. I'd not be surprised if UKIP top the poll at all though.
For Labour to lead on cost of living (inflation reinvented) and the NHS for the week before the Euros and Council elections is indeed very odd, even if these were thought through policies.
Ed really has to work with some duds in the shadow cabinet, effectively with one hand behind his back.
Got a range of Euro election leaflets now, here in deepest Sussex.
The UKIP and Conservative ones are effective and concentrate mostly on issues relevant to the election. The messages are much as you'd expect, and none the worse for that.
The Labour one is just bizarre; it looks as though they are deliberately trying to con voters into thinking this is the general election, as the two main themes are the 'cost of living crisis' and the NHS, and much of the rest is about standard Milibandisms equally unrelated to either the Euro or local elections. There may well be some puzzled Labour voters surprised to find that David Cameron is still PM after May 22nd and that Labour hasn't delivered any of its pledges (BTW, is there a 'cost of living crisis', when inflation is at a multi-year low? And, inasmuch as there is, is it obvious that voting for high-spending Labour councils is a smart response?).
The Green leaflet is also a bit confused about which election it relates to, although not as bad as Labour's. But it's reasonably effective - the front-page strapline of 'Taking your side in Europe' struck me as one of the best slogans. There was one odd bit, though; apparently the Greens want a 'Europe that allows decisions to be taken more locally'. Really? So they are now onside for Cameron's renegotiation, and now oppose wind farms where locals object?
The oddest one of all was from Mike's favourite, the grammatically-challenged 'An Independence from Europe'. It is tiny - about 10 cm by 15 cm - and printed mainly in pale blue, in a small typeface, against a patterned background which is a sort of pale union jack. A quarter of the text on the back is blue text on a lighter blue background. With the help of a magnifying glass and a bright light, I was able to read it, just, and actually the content is not bad. But I can't imagine anyone else read it, certainly not amongst the potentially most receptive demographic of 50+ year olds with deteriorating eyesight. Very odd.
Your obsession with me is creepy. One stalker was enough, thanks.
Not sure that I'd class it as an obsession. Think of me as an inquisitive scientist observing a fascinating mutant virus which is infecting the Conservative & Unionist party.
One day they'll shake off irritating bugs like you, but for the time being it is fun watching the party stumble about with a high fever, streaming nose and a thumping headache.
William Hill - Euro election in Great Britain, by constituency: Party With The Most Votes?
East Midlands UKIP 11/10 Con 7/4 Lab11/4 LD 150/1 Grn250/1
East of England UKIP 2/5 Con 7/4 Lab 66/1 LD 200/1 Grn 250/1
London Lab 1/4 Con 10/3 UKIP 12/1 Grn 100/1 LD 150/1
North East England Lab 1/50 UKIP 12/1 Con 50/1 Grn 200/1 LD 200/1
North West England Lab 3/10 UKIP 7/2 Con 10/1 LD 150/1 Grn 200/1
Scotland SNP 1/4 Lab 11/4 Con 100/1 UKIP 100/1 LD200/1
South East England UKIP 8/11 Con EVS Grn 150/1 Lab 150/1 LD 150/1
South West England UKIP 3/10 Con 12/5 LD 33/1 Lab 80/1 Grn 250/1
Wales Lab 1/12 UKIP 11/1 Con 16/1 PC 20/1 LD 150/1
West Midlands UKIP 4/11 Lab 11/4 Con 8/1 LD 150/1 Grn 200/1
Yorkshire and the Humber Lab 2/7 UKIP 10/3 Con 12/1 LD 150/1 Grn 200/1
The SW the only place where Lab are less likely to top the vote than the LDs even, it seems. We don't really go for Lab down this way, that is clear - I often try to give Labour the benefit the doubt, as I suspect growing up in such unfertile territory for them may slant my instinctive view, but they don't appear to be gaining much round this way. I'd not be surprised if UKIP top the poll at all though.
So, are you saying that that UKIP 3/10 in South West England is value? I have a couple of hundred quid floating around in my Hills account that I'm not sure what to do with. However, I dislike odds-on bets, so was looking for something a bit juicier that a 3/10 shot.
I actually quite fancy that 11/4 price on Scottish Labour. It beats Shadsy's 9/4. SLab are actually very close to the SNP in a lot of the polling. My major doubt is how good their GOTV operation is at the moment.
Interestingly, London is the only constituency in the whole UK where the Conservatives and Labour are the top two parties. Yet another sign of how out of touch London has become with the rest of the island?
London Lab 1/4 Con 10/3 UKIP 12/1 Grn 100/1 LD 150/1
The chances of UKIP coming second are a lot greater than those odds imply.
Interestingly, London is the only constituency in the whole UK where the Conservatives and Labour are the top two parties. Yet another sign of how out of touch London has become with the rest of the island?
London Lab 1/4 Con 10/3 UKIP 12/1 Grn 100/1 LD 150/1
The chances of UKIP coming second are a lot greater than those odds imply.
Now you've got me pricking up my ears Rod! So, a fiver on UKIP in both NE England and in London, both at 12/1. Surely one of them might come home?
Interestingly, London is the only constituency in the whole UK where the Conservatives and Labour are the top two parties. Yet another sign of how out of touch London has become with the rest of the island?
London Lab 1/4 Con 10/3 UKIP 12/1 Grn 100/1 LD 150/1
The chances of UKIP coming second are a lot greater than those odds imply.
Now you've got me pricking up my ears Rod! So, a fiver on UKIP in both NE England and in London, both at 12/1. Surely one of them might come home?
But what is your evidence re. London Rod?
On UKPR they don't believe UKIP will do any better than about 10% in London.
Interestingly, London is the only constituency in the whole UK where the Conservatives and Labour are the top two parties. Yet another sign of how out of touch London has become with the rest of the island?
London Lab 1/4 Con 10/3 UKIP 12/1 Grn 100/1 LD 150/1
The chances of UKIP coming second are a lot greater than those odds imply.
Now you've got me pricking up my ears Rod! So, a fiver on UKIP in both NE England and in London, both at 12/1. Surely one of them might come home?
But what is your evidence re. London Rod?
On UKPR they don't believe UKIP will do any better than about 10% in London.
Interestingly, London is the only constituency in the whole UK where the Conservatives and Labour are the top two parties. Yet another sign of how out of touch London has become with the rest of the island?
London Lab 1/4 Con 10/3 UKIP 12/1 Grn 100/1 LD 150/1
The chances of UKIP coming second are a lot greater than those odds imply.
Now you've got me pricking up my ears Rod! So, a fiver on UKIP in both NE England and in London, both at 12/1. Surely one of them might come home?
But what is your evidence re. London Rod?
I think we're talking at cross purposes. The odds are to come first. You seem to imply the two shortest odds will be the top two in each region. I don't think that follows, and UKIP have a better chance than 12/1 (imho) of coming second in London. UNS alone would indicate that.
Pity you can't bet on who comes second!
As for UKIP winning in the NE, 12/1 looks a bit stingy to me...
Nice spot! Now, that IS an interesting price. Must be worth a fiver?
Worth a lot more than that if you ask me. Put it this way — if I was filthy rich I'd put a few grand on it.
Why? What is your evidence of a UKIP surge in the NE in particular? I know they are doing well there, but better than Labour?? C'mon.
Labour are strong favourites to come top in the NE of course but there's an outside chance of UKIP doing something special there, especially because it has such a white population compared to the rest of England.
Interestingly, London is the only constituency in the whole UK where the Conservatives and Labour are the top two parties. Yet another sign of how out of touch London has become with the rest of the island?
London Lab 1/4 Con 10/3 UKIP 12/1 Grn 100/1 LD 150/1
The chances of UKIP coming second are a lot greater than those odds imply.
Now you've got me pricking up my ears Rod! So, a fiver on UKIP in both NE England and in London, both at 12/1. Surely one of them might come home?
But what is your evidence re. London Rod?
On UKPR they don't believe UKIP will do any better than about 10% in London.
Interestingly, London is the only constituency in the whole UK where the Conservatives and Labour are the top two parties. Yet another sign of how out of touch London has become with the rest of the island?
London Lab 1/4 Con 10/3 UKIP 12/1 Grn 100/1 LD 150/1
The chances of UKIP coming second are a lot greater than those odds imply.
Now you've got me pricking up my ears Rod! So, a fiver on UKIP in both NE England and in London, both at 12/1. Surely one of them might come home?
But what is your evidence re. London Rod?
I think we're talking at cross purposes. The odds are to come first. You seem to imply the two shortest odds will be the top two in each region. I don't think that follows, and UKIP have a better chance than 12/1 (imho) of coming second in London. UNS alone would indicate that.
Pity you can't bet on who comes second!
As for UKIP winning in the NE, 12/1 looks a bit stingy to me...
Gotcha.
I think I'll give that NE England 12/1 a wide berth. Unless good evidence of an impending Labour collapse is forthcoming. The North East of England is their strongest base in the entire UK. Followed by quite a distance by Wales.
Nice spot! Now, that IS an interesting price. Must be worth a fiver?
Worth a lot more than that if you ask me. Put it this way — if I was filthy rich I'd put a few grand on it.
Why? What is your evidence of a UKIP surge in the NE in particular? I know they are doing well there, but better than Labour?? C'mon.
Labour are strong favourites to come top in the NE of course but there's an outside chance of UKIP doing something special there, especially because it has such a white population compared to the rest of England.
That was also true 5 years ago, when LAB walked the NE.
And I'm not sure that the overwhelmingly white nature of the NE is necessarily good territory for anti-immigration parties like UKIP. On what basis do you see a correlation between the percentage ethnically white voters and support for UKIP? I would have thought it was more a rural vs. urban thing. Are they not a bit of a hillbilly/country bumpkin party?
It is just a Lib Dem smear according to Simon Walters. Ho hum... there must be an election coming up. You want to keep clear of the Senioristas when the shit hits the fan.
You make a convincing argument re:Labour NE. RE:Your Ukip urban/rural analysis - suffice to say that I have choochter genetics and think you may be a bit oversimplifying.
You make a convincing argument re:Labour NE. RE:Your Ukip urban/rural analysis - suffice to say that I have choochter genetics and think you may be a bit oversimplifying.
Snap. I'm a Gael on my mum's side.
Of course I was over-simplifying. All psephology and electoral geography/electoral marketing depends on simplification. Real voting patterns are far too complex for punters to get overly concerned about.
(Reuters) - More Scottish voters are favouring independence as criticism grows that the campaign to keep them in the United Kingdom is too negative, according to an opinion poll on Wednesday.
A TNS poll found support for Scotland to vote to leave the United Kingdom after more than 300 years in a Sept. 18 referendum nudged up one percentage point to 30 percent while opposition rose one point to 42 percent, leaving 28 percent undecided.
But although the headline figure showed little change, the poll found that among those certain to vote, 35 percent would opt for independence against 44 percent opposition, narrowing the gap between the two sides to nine points, its lowest since the TNS poll began last September when the gap was 22 points.
There's some evidence that former mining areas are good for UKIP and there are plenty of those in the NE.
I live in such an area. Like the North East UKIP are making headway but you can still weigh the Labour vote. 1/50 on Labour in NE is about right, 12/1 UKIP short.
It is just a Lib Dem smear according to Simon Walters. Ho hum... there must be an election coming up. You want to keep clear of the Senioristas when the shit hits the fan.
IMO the European Court decision over someone's "right to be forgotten" is a brilliant example of differing social attitudes between mainland Europe and the Anglosphere (or alternatively northern/Protestant Europe).
Most people in Anglosphere countries probably couldn't give a monkeys about what either they or someone else was or wasn't doing 16 years ago, and don't care if anyone else cares or doesn't care about it — (as long as it wasn't of a criminal nature).
On the other hand, in places like Spain it's apparently the sort of thing that can get on someone's nerves in a big way, so much so that they feel moved to launch a European court challenge.
IMO the European Court decision over someone's "right to be forgotten" is a brilliant example of differing social attitudes between mainland Europe and the Anglosphere (or alternatively northern/Protestant Europe).
Most people in Anglosphere countries probably couldn't give a monkeys about what either they or someone else was or wasn't doing 16 years ago, and don't care if anyone else cares or doesn't care about it — (as long as it wasn't of a criminal nature).
On the other hand, in places like Spain it's apparently the sort of thing that can get on someone's nerves in a big way, so much so that they feel moved to launch a European court challenge.
It's amazing how much data is freely available about private citizens, especially those in the US. But the question must be asked. Google is just a very clever search engine. This man's beef should have been with the original source of the info, surely? Not that I see him having a leg to stand on there, either.
What enters the public domain, remains in the public domain.
IMO the European Court decision over someone's "right to be forgotten" is a brilliant example of differing social attitudes between mainland Europe and the Anglosphere (or alternatively northern/Protestant Europe).
Most people in Anglosphere countries probably couldn't give a monkeys about what either they or someone else was or wasn't doing 16 years ago, and don't care if anyone else cares or doesn't care about it — (as long as it wasn't of a criminal nature).
On the other hand, in places like Spain it's apparently the sort of thing that can get on someone's nerves in a big way, so much so that they feel moved to launch a European court challenge.
It's amazing how much data is freely available about private citizens, especially those in the US. But the question must be asked. Google is just a very clever search engine. This man's beef should have been with the original source of the info, surely? Not that I see him having a leg to stand on there, either.
What enters the public domain, remains in the public domain.
Only more so, in the age of the Internet...
Without the internet, and the digitization of old newspapers, I would never have tracked down my first cousins (who I never knew existed) in 2011 in Australia.
An invasion of their privacy? Quite possibly. But they would agree, I'm sure, that it was 'all to the greater good'...
IMO the European Court decision over someone's "right to be forgotten" is a brilliant example of differing social attitudes between mainland Europe and the Anglosphere (or alternatively northern/Protestant Europe).
Most people in Anglosphere countries probably couldn't give a monkeys about what either they or someone else was or wasn't doing 16 years ago, and don't care if anyone else cares or doesn't care about it — (as long as it wasn't of a criminal nature).
On the other hand, in places like Spain it's apparently the sort of thing that can get on someone's nerves in a big way, so much so that they feel moved to launch a European court challenge.
It's amazing how much data is freely available about private citizens, especially those in the US. But the question must be asked. Google is just a very clever search engine. This man's beef should have been with the original source of the info, surely? Not that I see him having a leg to stand on there, either.
What enters the public domain, remains in the public domain.
Only more so, in the age of the Internet...
I agree, you can't attack the medium. But that's what these European judges have allowed.
I'm scratching my head to find an analogue in the history of democracy where a party with 15% wins no seats... (except for micro-nations with tiny legislatures)
Stumped.
Does it not bother any supporters of other parties?
I'm scratching my head to find an analogue in the history of democracy where a party with 15% wins no seats... (except for micro-nations with tiny legislatures)
Stumped.
Does it not bother any supporters of other parties?
Let's hope it brings forward the speedy adoption of PR^2.
I'm scratching my head to find an analogue in the history of democracy where a party with 15% wins no seats... (except for micro-nations with tiny legislatures)
Stumped.
Does it not bother any supporters of other parties?
Who cares about the supporters of parties. They are a tiny minority in this country.
Speaking as a citizen who votes based upon policies I have nothing but contempt for most of the so called PR systems. True they distribute seats more fairly but they take away the ability to vote for a set of empty promises and instead hand to politicians to formulate manifestos after the votes have been cast when they promote coalitions over single party government.
The current coalition being a case in point. Many would have voted differently if they knew that the coalition is what they would get.
Suggest doing a semi french system however where the initial ballot is to select the two or three parties to contest the election and you may be onto something as in the second round we could all know what the hell we were voting for.
LD 22 -> that'd be fun. It'd leave the SLDs with just 3 seats:
Orkney & Shetland (the Secretary of State for Scotland, wotzizname) Ross, Skye & Lochaber (Charlie Kennedy, your local IND candidate) North East Fife (vacant after the old guy buggered off)
I'd love to see the look on Rennie's fizzog the day after. Talk about bulldogs chewing wasps.
I saw Conservative, Labour etc on my ballot paper. There was nothing called 'coalition agreement'.
In Scotland there is something called "Scottish Conservatives – No to Independence" on the European Parliament ballot paper. Ho ho. That'll give a "boost" to the BeTory Together campaign. I'd love to have seen Darling's face when he found out about that wee clanger.
Ruth also announced today that the party will appear on the ballot paper at the European elections as “Scottish Conservatives – No to Independence”.
This sends out a clear message that a vote for the Scottish Conservatives at this election is one to back our UK family of nations, as this will give us more influence to change Europe.
Ruth will also accuse Labour and the SNP of “bottling it” on the need to reform the EU, with a recent survey showing only a quarter of Scots think the European Union should remain unchanged.
(Reuters) - More Scottish voters are favouring independence as criticism grows that the campaign to keep them in the United Kingdom is too negative, according to an opinion poll on Wednesday.
A TNS poll found support for Scotland to vote to leave the United Kingdom after more than 300 years in a Sept. 18 referendum nudged up one percentage point to 30 percent while opposition rose one point to 42 percent, leaving 28 percent undecided.
But although the headline figure showed little change, the poll found that among those certain to vote, 35 percent would opt for independence against 44 percent opposition, narrowing the gap between the two sides to nine points, its lowest since the TNS poll began last September when the gap was 22 points.
Comments
Con plus 3, Lab minus 4, LD minus 2, UKIP plus 1
What would be a good result for …
Conservatives
http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2014/05/what-would-be-a-good-result-for-the-conservatives-in-the-council-elections.html
Greens
http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2014/05/what-would-be-a-good-result-for-the-green-party-in-the-council-elections.html
Labour
http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2014/05/what-would-be-a-good-result-for-labour-in-the-council-elections.html
LDs
http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2014/05/what-would-be-a-good-result-for-the-lib-dems-in-the-council-elections.html
UKIP
http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2014/05/what-would-be-a-good-result-for-ukip-in-the-council-elections.html
One of the speeches he made which foretold almost exactly what would happen with mass immigration was "The Road to National Suicide". He predicted that a lack of criticism from politicians of the behaviour of a tiny percentage of immigrant extremists would whip up anger and frustration from those who were already here, and the two extremes would feed off each other... PPB's like this are evidence he was correct, in my opinion.
It gives a lot of time for the internal contradictions in all of UKIP, Labour and LibDems to cause major internal problems.
But also for the internal contradictions in the Conservatives to do the same...
I think Natrass was poorly treated by UKIP but unfortunately he has gone down in my estimation by forming a party with some extremely dodgy characters including former BNP members who had tried to get closer ties between the BNP and UKIP and were thrown out of UKIP when this came to light. In the East Midlands their candidates included former UKIP members who were kicked out for making racist statements.
Natrass could have the core of a healthy Eurosceptic party but unfortunately he has chosen the wrong people to ally himself with and has put antipathy to UKIP above any other consideration when choosing these people.
I shall continue watching...
Nigel's personnel management does seem to leave a bit to be desired though
Other examples abound here at PB. The virulent Scott P is my current favourite. Him and his chums are doing irreparable damage to the body politic they profess to love. But they just cannot help themselves. It is disgusting, yet fascinating, to witness. Like one of those time-lapse videos of a carcasse decaying.
Apparently the reason is that Lewisham council is in charge of the London-wide Euro count, and they also have a mayoral election to count.
On the other hand, Birmingham is in charge of the West Midlands Euro count and they're counting the local election at 10pm on Thursday evening.
East Midlands
UKIP 11/10
Con 7/4
Lab11/4
LD 150/1
Grn250/1
East of England
UKIP 2/5
Con 7/4
Lab 66/1
LD 200/1
Grn 250/1
London
Lab 1/4
Con 10/3
UKIP 12/1
Grn 100/1
LD 150/1
North East England
Lab 1/50
UKIP 12/1
Con 50/1
Grn 200/1
LD 200/1
North West England
Lab 3/10
UKIP 7/2
Con 10/1
LD 150/1
Grn 200/1
Scotland
SNP 1/4
Lab 11/4
Con 100/1
UKIP 100/1
LD200/1
South East England
UKIP 8/11
Con EVS
Grn 150/1
Lab 150/1
LD 150/1
South West England
UKIP 3/10
Con 12/5
LD 33/1
Lab 80/1
Grn 250/1
Wales
Lab 1/12
UKIP 11/1
Con 16/1
PC 20/1
LD 150/1
West Midlands
UKIP 4/11
Lab 11/4
Con 8/1
LD 150/1
Grn 200/1
Yorkshire and the Humber
Lab 2/7
UKIP 10/3
Con 12/1
LD 150/1
Grn 200/1
The UKIP and Conservative ones are effective and concentrate mostly on issues relevant to the election. The messages are much as you'd expect, and none the worse for that.
The Labour one is just bizarre; it looks as though they are deliberately trying to con voters into thinking this is the general election, as the two main themes are the 'cost of living crisis' and the NHS, and much of the rest is about standard Milibandisms equally unrelated to either the Euro or local elections. There may well be some puzzled Labour voters surprised to find that David Cameron is still PM after May 22nd and that Labour hasn't delivered any of its pledges (BTW, is there a 'cost of living crisis', when inflation is at a multi-year low? And, inasmuch as there is, is it obvious that voting for high-spending Labour councils is a smart response?).
The Green leaflet is also a bit confused about which election it relates to, although not as bad as Labour's. But it's reasonably effective - the front-page strapline of 'Taking your side in Europe' struck me as one of the best slogans. There was one odd bit, though; apparently the Greens want a 'Europe that allows decisions to be taken more locally'. Really? So they are now onside for Cameron's renegotiation, and now oppose wind farms where locals object?
The oddest one of all was from Mike's favourite, the grammatically-challenged 'An Independence from Europe'. It is tiny - about 10 cm by 15 cm - and printed mainly in pale blue, in a small typeface, against a patterned background which is a sort of pale union jack. A quarter of the text on the back is blue text on a lighter blue background. With the help of a magnifying glass and a bright light, I was able to read it, just, and actually the content is not bad. But I can't imagine anyone else read it, certainly not amongst the potentially most receptive demographic of 50+ year olds with deteriorating eyesight. Very odd.
London
Lab 1/4
Con 10/3
UKIP 12/1
Grn 100/1
LD 150/1
Have the most expensive losers in America managed to bag anyone worthwhile in the draft?
twitter.com/TheBench_ie/status/466224453899542528/photo/1
Ed really has to work with some duds in the shadow cabinet, effectively with one hand behind his back.
One day they'll shake off irritating bugs like you, but for the time being it is fun watching the party stumble about with a high fever, streaming nose and a thumping headache.
I actually quite fancy that 11/4 price on Scottish Labour. It beats Shadsy's 9/4. SLab are actually very close to the SNP in a lot of the polling. My major doubt is how good their GOTV operation is at the moment.
Lib Dems 1/2
Greens 6/4
But what is your evidence re. London Rod?
Under 15% 40/1
15 to 20% 20/1
20 to 25% 5/1
25 to 30% 2/1
30 to 35% 9/4
35 to 40% 5/1
Over 40% 12/1
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4
Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 2/1
UKIP to win 0 seats 1/3
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1
Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10
SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3
Labour to win more votes than SNP 9/4 (you can get 11/4 at Hills)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#London_polls
Pity you can't bet on who comes second!
As for UKIP winning in the NE, 12/1 looks a bit stingy to me...
I think I'll give that NE England 12/1 a wide berth. Unless good evidence of an impending Labour collapse is forthcoming. The North East of England is their strongest base in the entire UK. Followed by quite a distance by Wales.
And I'm not sure that the overwhelmingly white nature of the NE is necessarily good territory for anti-immigration parties like UKIP. On what basis do you see a correlation between the percentage ethnically white voters and support for UKIP? I would have thought it was more a rural vs. urban thing. Are they not a bit of a hillbilly/country bumpkin party?
You make a convincing argument re:Labour NE. RE:Your Ukip urban/rural analysis - suffice to say that I have choochter genetics and think you may be a bit oversimplifying.
Next you will be telling us which religious denomination the Pope belongs to.
Of course I was over-simplifying. All psephology and electoral geography/electoral marketing depends on simplification. Real voting patterns are far too complex for punters to get overly concerned about.
Independence battle tightens as Scots chide negative pro-UK campaign - poll
(Reuters) - More Scottish voters are favouring independence as criticism grows that the campaign to keep them in the United Kingdom is too negative, according to an opinion poll on Wednesday.
A TNS poll found support for Scotland to vote to leave the United Kingdom after more than 300 years in a Sept. 18 referendum nudged up one percentage point to 30 percent while opposition rose one point to 42 percent, leaving 28 percent undecided.
But although the headline figure showed little change, the poll found that among those certain to vote, 35 percent would opt for independence against 44 percent opposition, narrowing the gap between the two sides to nine points, its lowest since the TNS poll began last September when the gap was 22 points.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/05/13/uk-scotland-independence-poll-idUKKBN0DT23L20140513
Yes 5/2 (Lad, PP)
No 4/11 (various)
YES vote percentage (Lad)
44%+ 10/11
44%- 10/11
Turnout (BetVictor)
66%+ 1/3
60 to 65% 7/1
59%- 3/1
Independence debate winner (BetVictor)
Salmond 2/5
Lamont 7/4
Rennie 14/1
Davidson 20/1
Most people in Anglosphere countries probably couldn't give a monkeys about what either they or someone else was or wasn't doing 16 years ago, and don't care if anyone else cares or doesn't care about it — (as long as it wasn't of a criminal nature).
On the other hand, in places like Spain it's apparently the sort of thing that can get on someone's nerves in a big way, so much so that they feel moved to launch a European court challenge.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27388289
What enters the public domain, remains in the public domain.
Only more so, in the age of the Internet...
An invasion of their privacy? Quite possibly. But they would agree, I'm sure, that it was 'all to the greater good'...
Lab 35
Con 33
UKIP 15
LD 9
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2
Seats prediction:
Lab 332
Con 269
LD 22
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ukpr-projection-2
Stumped.
Does it not bother any supporters of other parties?
Speaking as a citizen who votes based upon policies I have nothing but contempt for most of the so called PR systems. True they distribute seats more fairly but they take away the ability to vote for a set of empty promises and instead hand to politicians to formulate manifestos after the votes have been cast when they promote coalitions over single party government.
The current coalition being a case in point. Many would have voted differently if they knew that the coalition is what they would get.
Suggest doing a semi french system however where the initial ballot is to select the two or three parties to contest the election and you may be onto something as in the second round we could all know what the hell we were voting for.
Orkney & Shetland (the Secretary of State for Scotland, wotzizname)
Ross, Skye & Lochaber (Charlie Kennedy, your local IND candidate)
North East Fife (vacant after the old guy buggered off)
I'd love to see the look on Rennie's fizzog the day after. Talk about bulldogs chewing wasps.
This sends out a clear message that a vote for the Scottish Conservatives at this election is one to back our UK family of nations, as this will give us more influence to change Europe.
Ruth will also accuse Labour and the SNP of “bottling it” on the need to reform the EU, with a recent survey showing only a quarter of Scots think the European Union should remain unchanged.
http://www.scottishconservatives.com/2014/05/yes-change-europe-independence/
Nice wee bit of unity there. In classic BeTory Together fashion.
Former MP for:
Clackmannan & East Stirlingshire 1970–Feb 1974
Dunfermline 1979–1983
Dunfermline West 1983–1992
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Douglas
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/475767/Bank-warns-cash-could-flood-out-of-Scotland-after-Yes-vote