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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The build up to the May 22nd elections

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  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    CON tightening in Hammersmith & Fulham. Shadsy's new prices:

    CON Control 2/5
    LAB Control 5/2
    NOC 10/1
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sean_F said:

    MikeK said:

    isam said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Interesting timing - a rat leaving a sinking ship.

    http://order-order.com/2014/05/13/ukips-ethnic-minority-poster-girl-quits-party-citing-racism/#comments

    Farage kept on saying that UKIP was not a racist party, but perhaps the message was not getting through.

    That is weird.. she was on channel 4 News last week saying that UKIP werent racist, and that was long after the adverts had come out.

    http://www.channel4.com/news/ethnic-minorities-uk-policy-exchange-30-per-cent-2050

    "The current immigration policy is biased and unfair because everyone is subordinate to Europeans. We have nothing more in common with someone from Bulgaria than we do with someone from Africa or South America or Asia.

    “It makes me angry that my grandparents had to work so hard to come over whereas now people just arrive. I’m not saying that all EU immigrants sponge off the State, but they have the opportunity to use our services.”"

    http://sanya-jeet.com/politics/

    Still, a young girl who has had a change of mind, fair enough.

    If You look at her home Tweet page, you can see from that she was/as a lightweight in politics. I wonder how much she got from the Guardian for this betrayal?
    There's no need to be bitter. UKIP's membership is still heading upwards.
    Things like this cant help. We should remeber how we were influenced by peers when we were 21.

    Katabasis ‏@Kata_basis May 7
    Wow. Awate tells Sanya-Jeet Thandi on C4 news that she's "betraying her skin colour" for supporting #UKIP. http://sanya-jeet.com/politics/multiculturalism-on-channel-4/
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    IndyRef betting

    High turnout continues to tighten.

    William Hill - IndyRef Turnout

    66% and over 2/5 (was 5/6 in December 2013)
    Under 66% 7/4
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Completely Off Topic:

    I have just spent a few minutes watching Herself plant out a new Cat Mint bush. The Brute and Thomas were circling like lions around the old and sick of a wildebeest heard. Reckon that plant will be gone by Friday.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326

    Completely Off Topic:

    I have just spent a few minutes watching Herself plant out a new Cat Mint bush. The Brute and Thomas were circling like lions around the old and sick of a wildebeest heard. Reckon that plant will be gone by Friday.


    Try the brutes on catnip. Mine go quite bananas.

    Anyway am off to a "flying buffet" in Zurich, whatever that is.......
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    taffys said:

    FTSE 100 - 15 year high....

    Time for another visit from Hunchman? The man who has predicted 12 of the last 3 crashes.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    edited May 2014
    SeanT said:

    ON topic, has anyone ever been to the Aeolian islands, north of Sicily? Stromboli, etc?

    I'm away there in June, to do a travel article. My editor wants 2500 words but I'm worried there's bugger all there - certainly not enough to fill up five pages or so - just a volcano or two, a couple of churches, some trendy blacksand beaches, and that's it.

    Anyone been there? Are there any really extraordinary bits that are hard to get to or obscure and mysterious or something?

    Have been and enjoyed but you could also write about the Ingrid Bergman film she made on Stromboli, when married to Rossellini.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    DavidL said:

    taffys said:

    FTSE 100 - 15 year high....

    Time for another visit from Hunchman? The man who has predicted 12 of the last 3 crashes.
    Indeed. I'm not sure that Roger ever recovered.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I seem to remember some old adage about selling in May and going away.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Which is a good reason for border controls if you're one of the relatively wealthier countries.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    @Hurstllama

    posted this yesterday, don't know if you saw it.

    Mr L what's your outlook on the Euros ? Mine is ( what's on offer locally ):

    Con : No - Osborne
    Lab : No - Ed
    LD : No - EU cheese eating surrender monkeys
    Kippers : No - Fruitcake, loonies and Cameron obsessives
    Greens : No - Neil
    BNP- don't like Alex Salmond
    Harmony Party - don't use hair spray
    We demand a referendum - No -Nikki Sinclair, MikeK's wet dream
    AIFE - maybe - outkipper the kippers for a laugh
    No2EU - maybe - sufficiently anti but offensive to Cameron and Miliband
    English Democrats - maybe but hmmmm
    Spoil my vote - maybe but need a strapline.

    Overall not terribly attractive, I'm probably most on the Bob Crowe tribute act just because I've never voted that far left before and they haven't a hope in hell. What's your view down south ?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    ON topic, has anyone ever been to the Aeolian islands, north of Sicily? Stromboli, etc?

    I'm away there in June, to do a travel article. My editor wants 2500 words but I'm worried there's bugger all there - certainly not enough to fill up five pages or so - just a volcano or two, a couple of churches, some trendy blacksand beaches, and that's it.

    Anyone been there? Are there any really extraordinary bits that are hard to get to or obscure and mysterious or something?

    Have been and enjoyed but you could also write about the Ingrid Bergman film she made on Stromboli, when married to Rossellini.

    Indeed. Tremendous movie art.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stromboli_(film)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    DavidL said:

    taffys said:

    FTSE 100 - 15 year high....

    Time for another visit from Hunchman? The man who has predicted 12 of the last 3 crashes.
    Indeed. I'm not sure that Roger ever recovered.
    In respect of gold IANAE and not qualified to give advice but if the China bubble bursts there are going to be a lot of distressed sellers in the market. A lot. Just a thought.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Stromboli featured in the Prague Cemetery.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    MrJones said:

    Which is a good reason for border controls if you're one of the relatively wealthier countries.
    No, it isn't.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited May 2014
    Money seems to have been going on OSBORNE in the Next Conservative Leader market. Latest best prices:

    Johnson 5/1 (various)
    May 6/1 (Lad)
    Gove 9/1 (Bet365, SkyBet)
    Hammond 12/1 (PP)
    Osborne 12/1 (BetFred, BetWay)
    Hague 20/1 (PP)
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    taffys said:

    FTSE 100 - 15 year high....

    Time for another visit from Hunchman? The man who has predicted 12 of the last 3 crashes.
    Indeed. I'm not sure that Roger ever recovered.
    In respect of gold IANAE and not qualified to give advice but if the China bubble bursts there are going to be a lot of distressed sellers in the market. A lot. Just a thought.

    Duly noted. The China Bubble is, of course, going to burst. All bubbles do. Hint hint.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    isam said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Interesting timing - a rat leaving a sinking ship.

    http://order-order.com/2014/05/13/ukips-ethnic-minority-poster-girl-quits-party-citing-racism/#comments

    Farage kept on saying that UKIP was not a racist party, but perhaps the message was not getting through.

    That is weird.. she was on channel 4 News last week saying that UKIP werent racist, and that was long after the adverts had come out.

    http://www.channel4.com/news/ethnic-minorities-uk-policy-exchange-30-per-cent-2050

    "The current immigration policy is biased and unfair because everyone is subordinate to Europeans. We have nothing more in common with someone from Bulgaria than we do with someone from Africa or South America or Asia.

    “It makes me angry that my grandparents had to work so hard to come over whereas now people just arrive. I’m not saying that all EU immigrants sponge off the State, but they have the opportunity to use our services.”"

    http://sanya-jeet.com/politics/

    Still, a young girl who has had a change of mind, fair enough.

    Sounds more like Ukip isn't anti-european enough.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Money seems to have been going on OSBORNE in the Next Conservative Leader market. Latest best prices:

    Johnson 5/1 (various)
    May 6/1 (Lad)
    Gove 9/1 (Bet365, SkyBet)
    Hammond 12/1 (PP)
    Osborne 12/1 (BetFred, BetWay)
    Hague 20/1 (PP)

    The next leader markets are interesting - in just over a year's time we shall almost certainly have new leaders of two of the three main parties (and UKIP if Nigel Farage fails to win a seat). The likely successors in case of defeat should be clear in all three cases, but in practice only Yvette Cooper seems to have dominant favourite status in the event of a contest.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    MrJones said:

    Which is a good reason for border controls if you're one of the relatively wealthier countries.
    There are richer and poorer countries inside the Schengen zone.

    Yet crime rates in the richer parts of Europe have fallen since Romania and Bulgaria joined the EU.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    taffys said:

    FTSE 100 - 15 year high....

    Time for another visit from Hunchman? The man who has predicted 12 of the last 3 crashes.
    Indeed. I'm not sure that Roger ever recovered.
    In respect of gold IANAE and not qualified to give advice but if the China bubble bursts there are going to be a lot of distressed sellers in the market. A lot. Just a thought.

    Duly noted. The China Bubble is, of course, going to burst. All bubbles do. Hint hint.
    Well you never know Stuart, this time it might be different. LOL.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:

    Which is a good reason for border controls if you're one of the relatively wealthier countries.
    No, it isn't.
    Security firms selling high-end alarm systems to wealthy people would probably disagree.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    "There is a "high probability" that the England team will not progress to the later stages of this summer's World Cup, a government document says.

    Labour said this indicated "what the government think" of England's chances. The coalition said its calculations were not an "opinion" but were based on odds on the gambling website Betfair."

    The Westminster Punch-and-Judy show reaches new depths of barrel-scraping...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27396376
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    @Hurstllama

    posted this yesterday, don't know if you saw it.

    Mr L what's your outlook on the Euros ? Mine is ( what's on offer locally ):

    Con : No - Osborne
    Lab : No - Ed
    LD : No - EU cheese eating surrender monkeys
    Kippers : No - Fruitcake, loonies and Cameron obsessives
    Greens : No - Neil
    BNP- don't like Alex Salmond
    Harmony Party - don't use hair spray
    We demand a referendum - No -Nikki Sinclair, MikeK's wet dream
    AIFE - maybe - outkipper the kippers for a laugh
    No2EU - maybe - sufficiently anti but offensive to Cameron and Miliband
    English Democrats - maybe but hmmmm
    Spoil my vote - maybe but need a strapline.

    Overall not terribly attractive, I'm probably most on the Bob Crowe tribute act just because I've never voted that far left before and they haven't a hope in hell. What's your view down south ?

    Please vote AIFE, because they amuse me...
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    rcs1000 said:

    MrJones said:

    Which is a good reason for border controls if you're one of the relatively wealthier countries.
    There are richer and poorer countries inside the Schengen zone.

    Yet crime rates in the richer parts of Europe have fallen since Romania and Bulgaria joined the EU.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/falling-crime-figures-not-reliable-3026244
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    antifrank said:

    Money seems to have been going on OSBORNE in the Next Conservative Leader market. Latest best prices:

    Johnson 5/1 (various)
    May 6/1 (Lad)
    Gove 9/1 (Bet365, SkyBet)
    Hammond 12/1 (PP)
    Osborne 12/1 (BetFred, BetWay)
    Hague 20/1 (PP)

    The next leader markets are interesting - in just over a year's time we shall almost certainly have new leaders of two of the three main parties (and UKIP if Nigel Farage fails to win a seat). The likely successors in case of defeat should be clear in all three cases, but in practice only Yvette Cooper seems to have dominant favourite status in the event of a contest.
    And that is pretty weird. Being invisible is not necessarily a great attribute in a leader (although it is a skill that Ed might want to develop). I would have thought Andy Burnham was next in line myself.

  • The Blair government's quite extraordinary folly in passing the International Criminal Court Act 2001 is coming home to bite, following a complaint by "Public Interest Lawyers". The American position on this particular kangaroo court is the right one, and we should not have ceded it any jurisdiction.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Quincel said:

    "There is a "high probability" that the England team will not progress to the later stages of this summer's World Cup, a government document says.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27396376

    Wow - I thought everyone knew that England were always quarter finals.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    @Hurstllama

    posted this yesterday, don't know if you saw it.

    Mr L what's your outlook on the Euros ? Mine is ( what's on offer locally ):

    Con : No - Osborne
    Lab : No - Ed
    LD : No - EU cheese eating surrender monkeys
    Kippers : No - Fruitcake, loonies and Cameron obsessives
    Greens : No - Neil
    BNP- don't like Alex Salmond
    Harmony Party - don't use hair spray
    We demand a referendum - No -Nikki Sinclair, MikeK's wet dream
    AIFE - maybe - outkipper the kippers for a laugh
    No2EU - maybe - sufficiently anti but offensive to Cameron and Miliband
    English Democrats - maybe but hmmmm
    Spoil my vote - maybe but need a strapline.

    Overall not terribly attractive, I'm probably most on the Bob Crowe tribute act just because I've never voted that far left before and they haven't a hope in hell. What's your view down south ?

    Wotcha, Mr, Brooke,

    I did indeed see that post of yours, but so long after you put it up I was too embarrassed to reply.

    I am not actually going to be able to vote in the Euros because I forgot to apply for a postal/proxy vote and will be working at the polling station at the next village up. That said, on your scale I'd disagree on several points as follows:

    Con : No - Osborne [Nope Cameron - Osborne is just the monkey, blame the Organ-grinder]
    Lab : No - Ed [Yup, plus Balls, Cooper, Burnham and all the rest]
    LD : No - EU cheese eating surrender monkeys [Untrustworthy too boot]
    Kippers : No - Fruitcake, loonies and Cameron obsessives [Maybe, but they have something to say that needs saying]
    Greens : No - Neil [The Iron-Age appreciation society? I think not]

    The rest in your list I don't know. For me in the Euros it would have been either UKIP (give that self-satisfied git Cameron and his pro EU chums a kick) or not bother at all.

    I think you and I are agreed about Osborne where we seem to drift apart is Cameron. Osborne could not have been so bloody useless in addressing the real problems if he did not have protection/cover from Cameron.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    LAB drifting in Newark. Latest best prices:

    Con 4/7 (PP)
    UKIP 4/1 (Betfair)
    Lab 5/1 (Hills)
    LD 250/1 (various)

    Con Hold.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    @Hurstllama

    posted this yesterday, don't know if you saw it.

    e.

    Overall not terribly attractive, I'm probably most on the Bob Crowe tribute act just because I've never voted that far left before and they haven't a hope in hell. What's your view down south ?

    Wotcha, Mr, Brooke,

    I did indeed see that post of yours, but so long after you put it up I was too embarrassed to reply.

    I am not actually going to be able to vote in the Euros because I forgot to apply for a postal/proxy vote and will be working at the polling station at the next village up. That said, on your scale I'd disagree on several points as follows:

    Con : No - Osborne [Nope Cameron - Osborne is just the monkey, blame the Organ-grinder]
    Lab : No - Ed [Yup, plus Balls, Cooper, Burnham and all the rest]
    LD : No - EU cheese eating surrender monkeys [Untrustworthy too boot]
    Kippers : No - Fruitcake, loonies and Cameron obsessives [Maybe, but they have something to say that needs saying]
    Greens : No - Neil [The Iron-Age appreciation society? I think not]

    The rest in your list I don't know. For me in the Euros it would have been either UKIP (give that self-satisfied git Cameron and his pro EU chums a kick) or not bother at all.

    I think you and I are agreed about Osborne where we seem to drift apart is Cameron. Osborne could not have been so bloody useless in addressing the real problems if he did not have protection/cover from Cameron.
    You have a point of Cameron, but I get so bored with kippers blaming him for everything from gay marriage to the Fall of Constantinople that I give him a let. With Osborne and Cameron it's hard to work out who's the puppet and who's the puppet master. I think I've settled for self operating puppets.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    #PublishThePoll is trending on twitter.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2014
    I'm not an expert in solar power, but the second picture down in this article suggests that the installer needs a bit of a talking to, unless there's a 20-storey mirror just behind the camera. Certainly suggests that withdrawing subsidies is a good idea.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27393805
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    LAB drifting in Newark. Latest best prices:

    Con 4/7 (PP)
    UKIP 4/1 (Betfair)
    Lab 5/1 (Hills)
    LD 250/1 (various)

    Con Hold.
    Labour certainly third. Con are favourites to hold but depends on the Euro election results IMO. A big win in those for UKIP could give them renewed momentum in Newark.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    edited May 2014
    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Which is a good reason for border controls if you're one of the relatively wealthier countries.
    No, it isn't.
    Security firms selling high-end alarm systems to wealthy people would probably disagree.
    Linky please.

    Besides, crime is falling. Despite the police figures' cr@pness, everything points to a long-term and sustained fall in crime. Rather embarrassingly for those scared of immigrants, that also includes the period after accession.

    NHS figures:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27119689

    Crime survey of E&W:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25858421
    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/feb/13/violent-sexual-crime-statistics-england-wales-2013

    Edit: in fact, you could say: "blooming immigrants, coming over here and making the country safer." ;-)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    #PublishThePoll is trending on twitter.

    I take it Nats don't do irony ?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Pulpstar said:

    LAB drifting in Newark. Latest best prices:

    Con 4/7 (PP)
    UKIP 4/1 (Betfair)
    Lab 5/1 (Hills)
    LD 250/1 (various)

    Con Hold.
    Looking that way. N'est ce pas?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    #PublishThePoll is trending on twitter.

    They want more pics of their Eurovision entry ? Mee too..
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    The forecasts for unemployment tomorrow look very positive but with David Blanchflower (who manages to write this piece without any reference to his forecasts of a massive increase in unemployment around the time it started falling) focussing on it I think we can look forward to something truly outstanding tomorrow.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/unemployment-will-scar-us-for-years-9350816.html

    My guess is that we will also see headlines of reports of increases in real wages. Many, like @ZenPagan last night, will feel that that does not reflect their own experience and that they are losing out but the long fall in living standards is over for most. And Osborne already has a positive rating. Remarkable.

    It may be a slightly tricky PMQs. 6 questions of does the PM agree with me how terrible it all is in Ukraine?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    DavidL said:

    antifrank said:



    The next leader markets are interesting - in just over a year's time we shall almost certainly have new leaders of two of the three main parties (and UKIP if Nigel Farage fails to win a seat). The likely successors in case of defeat should be clear in all three cases, but in practice only Yvette Cooper seems to have dominant favourite status in the event of a contest.

    And that is pretty weird. Being invisible is not necessarily a great attribute in a leader (although it is a skill that Ed might want to develop). I would have thought Andy Burnham was next in line myself.

    I find this interesting - I was sure Tim Farron of left wing fandom was 2/1 the last time I looked.

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Anorak said:

    I'm not an expert in solar power, but the second picture down in this article suggests that the installer needs a bit of a talking to, unless there's a 20-storey mirror just behind the camera. Certainly suggests that withdrawing subsidies is a good idea.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27393805

    I suspect the photo has been manipulated, the sun has been added as there are no shadows etc.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP almost topped the poll in the Newark & Sherwood council area in the Euro elections ten years ago. And things have changed a bit since then.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I expect that Labour's drift in the Newark market is related to this article:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html

    This is an incredibly poor decision, if true. The risk of the Conservatives winning comfortably and Labour coming third, increasing pressure further on Ed Miliband, is high.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Today's Betting Mystery:

    The CONS have just overtaken LAB in two polls. So, why have the constituency markets not shifted one iota?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    Quincel said:

    "There is a "high probability" that the England team will not progress to the later stages of this summer's World Cup, a government document says.

    Labour said this indicated "what the government think" of England's chances. The coalition said its calculations were not an "opinion" but were based on odds on the gambling website Betfair."

    The Westminster Punch-and-Judy show reaches new depths of barrel-scraping...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27396376

    Is it 1st April or an article from the Daily Mash? Oh no it isn't!
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Suart Dickson - If what you are saying is true you should have an idea of the answer.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Today's Betting Mystery:

    The CONS have just overtaken LAB in two polls. So, why have the constituency markets not shifted one iota?

    It's not a mystery. Not everyone reacts hysterically to a couple of polls (though you'd guess otherwise on here) and many punters will have been assuming a shift back to the Conservatives at some point in the next year, so will have factored in polls such as those issued yesterday.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014

    Today's Betting Mystery:

    The CONS have just overtaken LAB in two polls. So, why have the constituency markets not shifted one iota?

    It obviously takes time for people to react.

    I mentioned earlier today that the odds in Bedford have remained the same as before. Tories are still 2/1. I placed a small bet on them just now due to yesterday's polls.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Which is a good reason for border controls if you're one of the relatively wealthier countries.
    No, it isn't.
    Security firms selling high-end alarm systems to wealthy people would probably disagree.
    Linky please.

    Besides, crime is falling. Despite the police figures' cr@pness, everything points to a long-term and sustained fall in crime. Rather embarrassingly for those scared of immigrants, that also includes the period after accession.

    NHS figures:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27119689

    Crime survey of E&W:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25858421
    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/feb/13/violent-sexual-crime-statistics-england-wales-2013

    Edit: in fact, you could say: "blooming immigrants, coming over here and making the country safer." ;-)
    "scared"

    Debate sensibly please
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    antifrank said:

    I expect that Labour's drift in the Newark market is related to this article:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html

    This is an incredibly poor decision, if true. The risk of the Conservatives winning comfortably and Labour coming third, increasing pressure further on Ed Miliband, is high.

    Labour going to scupper OGH by not running a true race. Like backing a dodgy horse on the all weather... !
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    F1: just checked, but Ladbrokes, understandably, don't have Monaco up yet. Red Bull could be most interesting to watch there.

    If Rosberg loses to Hamilton, then it's over, barring reliability failures. If Rosberg wins he has a chance, but I'd still rate Hamilton as title favourite.

    We could see a higher than usual number of retirements, due to sliding around more this year than previously.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    antifrank said:

    I expect that Labour's drift in the Newark market is related to this article:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html

    This is an incredibly poor decision, if true. The risk of the Conservatives winning comfortably and Labour coming third, increasing pressure further on Ed Miliband, is high.

    Labour still seems to be in the mindset of giving UKIP an easy ride in certain places because they think it'll help them indirectly.

    The only problem with that approach is the reason they've just lost their lead in the polls is not because of an increase in the Tory share but because they've lost support to Farage's party.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    isam said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Which is a good reason for border controls if you're one of the relatively wealthier countries.
    No, it isn't.
    Security firms selling high-end alarm systems to wealthy people would probably disagree.
    Linky please.

    Besides, crime is falling. Despite the police figures' cr@pness, everything points to a long-term and sustained fall in crime. Rather embarrassingly for those scared of immigrants, that also includes the period after accession.

    NHS figures:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27119689

    Crime survey of E&W:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25858421
    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/feb/13/violent-sexual-crime-statistics-england-wales-2013

    Edit: in fact, you could say: "blooming immigrants, coming over here and making the country safer." ;-)
    "scared"

    Debate sensibly please
    I am. If you tried, you wouldn't post stories about crime in foreign climes and state that UKIP posters should be made about them./

    You're so scared, it's pathetic.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    antifrank said:

    Today's Betting Mystery:

    The CONS have just overtaken LAB in two polls. So, why have the constituency markets not shifted one iota?

    It's not a mystery. Not everyone reacts hysterically to a couple of polls (though you'd guess otherwise on here) and many punters will have been assuming a shift back to the Conservatives at some point in the next year, so will have factored in polls such as those issued yesterday.
    Hmmm... unconvinced.

    "Hysterical" or not, polls are important. Yesterday was a red-letter day, and yet not a single constituency in GB has shifted. Even an inch. Despite some extraordinarily long CON odds in CON-held seats. Mystifying is the correct word.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Money seems to have been going on OSBORNE in the Next Conservative Leader market. Latest best prices:

    Johnson 5/1 (various)
    May 6/1 (Lad)
    Gove 9/1 (Bet365, SkyBet)
    Hammond 12/1 (PP)
    Osborne 12/1 (BetFred, BetWay)
    Hague 20/1 (PP)

    It always baffles me to see Ms May touted as possible leader of the Conservative Party. She looks like a non-starter to me.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    antifrank said:

    I expect that Labour's drift in the Newark market is related to this article:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html

    This is an incredibly poor decision, if true. The risk of the Conservatives winning comfortably and Labour coming third, increasing pressure further on Ed Miliband, is high.

    I speculated on the thread when the by election was announced that Labour might try hard early but then back off in the hope that a UKIP win would seriously destabilise the tories. They seem to have skipped the first bit.

    I agree it is high risk. Coming 3rd in a seat you held until 2001 is not that impressive, whatever the excuses. There is also more than a hint that the decision is money driven. The fall outs with unions and the problems at the Co-Op may be having an effect. If UKIP won it would be worth it for Labour but I think that is unlikely and then they are nowhere.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Which is a good reason for border controls if you're one of the relatively wealthier countries.
    No, it isn't.
    Security firms selling high-end alarm systems to wealthy people would probably disagree.
    Linky please.

    Besides, crime is falling. Despite the police figures' cr@pness, everything points to a long-term and sustained fall in crime. Rather embarrassingly for those scared of immigrants, that also includes the period after accession.

    NHS figures:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27119689

    Crime survey of E&W:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25858421
    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/feb/13/violent-sexual-crime-statistics-england-wales-2013

    Edit: in fact, you could say: "blooming immigrants, coming over here and making the country safer." ;-)
    "everything points to a long-term and sustained fall in crime"

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/26/gangs-sexual-violence-warzones

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmhaff/uc182-vii/uc18201.htm

    everything points to the political class being perfectly willing to lie through their teeth about crime
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Morris - Far Too Early for F1 surely. England quarter finals should be the current debate. I NEVER SAID I DON'T LIKE WORLD CUPS WHERE SCOTLAND DON'T QUALIFY
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Briskin, bit early indeed. On the other hand, I'd guess more bets are (all else being equal) placed on Monaco than elsewhere, due to it being (ridiculously) the most prestigious race on the calendar.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Money seems to have been going on OSBORNE in the Next Conservative Leader market. Latest best prices:

    Johnson 5/1 (various)
    May 6/1 (Lad)
    Gove 9/1 (Bet365, SkyBet)
    Hammond 12/1 (PP)
    Osborne 12/1 (BetFred, BetWay)
    Hague 20/1 (PP)

    It always baffles me to see Ms May touted as possible leader of the Conservative Party. She looks like a non-starter to me.

    Theresa May has more appeal across the party than you'd guess. She is incredibly popular on the liberal wing and because of her successes in deporting certain people has repaired her position with enough of the traditionalists.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited May 2014
    Morris - I'd have thought that it would be the least bet on because it is unpredictable. But then the grand national is the most best on race. I'd have thought F1 fans to be better.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Which is a good reason for border controls if you're one of the relatively wealthier countries.
    No, it isn't.
    Security firms selling high-end alarm systems to wealthy people would probably disagree.
    Linky please.

    Besides, crime is falling. Despite the police figures' cr@pness, everything points to a long-term and sustained fall in crime. Rather embarrassingly for those scared of immigrants, that also includes the period after accession.

    NHS figures:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27119689

    Crime survey of E&W:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25858421
    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/feb/13/violent-sexual-crime-statistics-england-wales-2013

    Edit: in fact, you could say: "blooming immigrants, coming over here and making the country safer." ;-)
    "everything points to a long-term and sustained fall in crime"

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/26/gangs-sexual-violence-warzones

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmhaff/uc182-vii/uc18201.htm

    everything points to the political class being perfectly willing to lie through their teeth about crime
    I'd like to know how the 'political class' are massaging the official police figures, the crime survey, and NHS admissions to show the same story of decreasing crime.

    I could believe one, and possible two at a stretch. But the NHS figures as well...

    You almost seem to be wanting crime to be going up. Why is that?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Briskin, most F1 is unpredictable, Monaco's probably amongst the more predictable. It's a processional, tedious circuit that should be consigned to the dustbin of history. That Monaco is bulletproof and Spa is in doubt speaks of how crackers the sport can be.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited May 2014
    JBriskin said:

    Morris - I'd have thought that it would be the least bet on because it is unpredictable. But then the grand national is the most best on race. I'd have thought F1 fans to be better.

    Bet365 won't be doing a £125 half stakes refund offer on the Monaco GP though.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    antifrank said:

    Completely off topic, but I wish to record my undying detestation of BT. At home I currently have no phone line, no internet and no indication when BT will deign to rectify that state of affairs.

    This will put a crimp on further blogposts for the time being.

    I used to keep a pay-as-you-go mobile phone USB 'dongle' as a back up internet ISP.

    The best one in my experience was Three.

    http://www.three.co.uk/Discover/Mobile_Broadband

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Morris - I think Spa is overrated. I like the Monaco being special because it just is thing.

    I must disagree that F1 is unpredictable - I'm fairly sure I've made a profit, however small.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Mr. Briskin, most F1 is unpredictable, Monaco's probably amongst the more predictable. It's a processional, tedious circuit that should be consigned to the dustbin of history. That Monaco is bulletproof and Spa is in doubt speaks of how crackers the sport can be.

    Its glamorous though, plus you might occasionally glimpse a bikini clad minx or two ;)
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Pulpstar - Indeed, free bets = profits for those with time.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014

    isam said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Which is a good reason for border controls if you're one of the relatively wealthier countries.
    No, it isn't.
    Security firms selling high-end alarm systems to wealthy people would probably disagree.
    Linky please.

    Besides, crime is falling. Despite the police figures' cr@pness, everything points to a long-term and sustained fall in crime. Rather embarrassingly for those scared of immigrants, that also includes the period after accession.

    NHS figures:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27119689

    Crime survey of E&W:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25858421
    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/feb/13/violent-sexual-crime-statistics-england-wales-2013

    Edit: in fact, you could say: "blooming immigrants, coming over here and making the country safer." ;-)
    "scared"

    Debate sensibly please
    I am. If you tried, you wouldn't post stories about crime in foreign climes and state that UKIP posters should be made about them./

    You're so scared, it's pathetic.
    I posted it as a joke, the joke being that UKIP turn any bad press about Romanains and Bulgarians into a PPB a la Upik News etc on twitter

    You misunderstood and have turned it into something it wasnt. I'll await an apology, though I dont expect one

    I would ask what you think it is I am scared of, but I think you said it in answer to a point you misunderstood, so Ill let you off



  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Briskin, Spa, overrated? Are you trolling? Am I going to have to beat you around the head and neck with a genetically engineered and very large haddock?

    Wash your mouth out with soap, young man!

    Spa overrated, indeed.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    Completely off topic, but I wish to record my undying detestation of BT. At home I currently have no phone line, no internet and no indication when BT will deign to rectify that state of affairs.

    This will put a crimp on further blogposts for the time being.

    I used to keep a pay-as-you-go mobile phone USB 'dongle' as a back up internet ISP.

    The best one in my experience was Three.

    http://www.three.co.uk/Discover/Mobile_Broadband

    We now have a home phone line and an internet connection back. Sadly, it appears that being very difficult with their staff pays dividends.

    Normal blogging should be resumed in the morning.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited May 2014
    Miliband drifting:

    Paddy Power - PM after next UK GE:

    Ed Miliband 8/11 (from 4/7)
    David Cameron 11/10 (from 6/5)
    Yvette Cooper 16/1
    Boris Johnson 18/1
    Theresa May 22/1
    Ed Balls 25/1
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Jim, oh aye, it's a triumph of style over substance.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    SeanT said:

    Money seems to have been going on OSBORNE in the Next Conservative Leader market. Latest best prices:

    Johnson 5/1 (various)
    May 6/1 (Lad)
    Gove 9/1 (Bet365, SkyBet)
    Hammond 12/1 (PP)
    Osborne 12/1 (BetFred, BetWay)
    Hague 20/1 (PP)

    It always baffles me to see Ms May touted as possible leader of the Conservative Party. She looks like a non-starter to me.

    I'd just like to point out that I touted the Osborne Next PM prices about six months ago when they were ludicrously long (they might still be long now, haven't checked).

    It doesn't seem half so daft now. The route is obvious. Cameron wins a NOM or OM in 2015, resigns in 2018 out of boredom; Osborne, by then regarded as the architect of the Tory and economic recovery, is ushered into power by a grateful party, who figure that if they can win with an Old Etonian, some lesser toff is not a prob, esp as he seems to be quite smart and is now viewed with Downton Abbeyish gor-blimey-thankya-guv affection by the plebs.

    It's more likely to me that he will do it than the faintly ludicrous May or the overly maverick Bojo. Or the frankly impossible Gove.
    I do get the feeling that Mr Cameron is just marking time until he can join the ex-politico money-go-round.

    If people are willing to pay to listen to Mr Brown give a speech, Mr Cameron should do very nicely.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Mr. Briskin, most F1 is unpredictable, Monaco's probably amongst the more predictable. It's a processional, tedious circuit that should be consigned to the dustbin of history. That Monaco is bulletproof and Spa is in doubt speaks of how crackers the sport can be.

    It does get somewhat comical how presenters try to sell it as some amazing race simply by virtue of where it is, and therefore its supposedly incredible atmosphere (a similar thing with how 'amazing' the South African World Cup was due to the atmosphere alone, but at least there were some good games as well), when it is, as you say, a processional dullfest with a pretty backdrop. I've been watching F1since I was 7, and I can only remember a handful of exciting incidents and perhaps 2 or maximum 3 decent races in Monaco at that time.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    I feel sorry for anyone who backed Labour in Newark after that report saying they'd basically thrown in the towel. I'm sure Tony Blair in 1994 wouldn't have made such a decision.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. kle4, you're not in your 80s, are you? :p

    Going gooey over Monaco or Singapore is something I find inexplicable, and why I'm glad the New York race appears off the menu. Spa, Silverstone, Suzuka, Interlagos, Texas, these are the great races. Monaco and Singapore (to a lesser extent Abu Dhabi) are just tedious.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Morris - I'm not trolling. It's really long and it rains and has one pretty cool gradient bit. I like the Hungary one with it's Monaco-esque style on a proper track.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    UK becomes first western country to be tried for war crimes
    The international criminal court's decision to investigate allegations of war crimes places the UK in the company of countries such as the Central African Republic, Colombia and Afghanistan.
    http://stopwar.org.uk/article/uk-is-first-western-state-to-be-investigated-for-war-crimes-by-international-court#.U3JQ9RDBp0z
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    ToryJim said:

    Money seems to have been going on OSBORNE in the Next Conservative Leader market. Latest best prices:

    Johnson 5/1 (various)
    May 6/1 (Lad)
    Gove 9/1 (Bet365, SkyBet)
    Hammond 12/1 (PP)
    Osborne 12/1 (BetFred, BetWay)
    Hague 20/1 (PP)

    It always baffles me to see Ms May touted as possible leader of the Conservative Party. She looks like a non-starter to me.

    Theresa May has more appeal across the party than you'd guess. She is incredibly popular on the liberal wing and because of her successes in deporting certain people has repaired her position with enough of the traditionalists.
    Is this Abu Qatada?

    As I understand it he wasn't deported. He left voluntarily.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Whether Osborne becomes the next leader of the Tories or not, after the horribly unconvincing years of Blair/Brown pretending to not be leading their own factions in the party which often butted up against each other, it is comforting that, for now, Chancellor and PM appear solidly joined.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Completely off topic, but I wish to record my undying detestation of BT. At home I currently have no phone line, no internet and no indication when BT will deign to rectify that state of affairs.

    This will put a crimp on further blogposts for the time being.

    I used to keep a pay-as-you-go mobile phone USB 'dongle' as a back up internet ISP.

    The best one in my experience was Three.

    http://www.three.co.uk/Discover/Mobile_Broadband

    We now have a home phone line and an internet connection back. Sadly, it appears that being very difficult with their staff pays dividends.
    Yawn. You are just the kind of customer that customer service workers detest. With good reason.

    Brag at will. Repent at leisure.

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Mr. Jim, oh aye, it's a triumph of style over substance.

    Mr Dancer, sometimes you need less intense sporting occasions

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    isam said:

    isam said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Which is a good reason for border controls if you're one of the relatively wealthier countries.
    No, it isn't.
    Security firms selling high-end alarm systems to wealthy people would probably disagree.
    Linky please.

    Besides, crime is falling. Despite the police figures' cr@pness, everything points to a long-term and sustained fall in crime. Rather embarrassingly for those scared of immigrants, that also includes the period after accession.

    NHS figures:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27119689

    Crime survey of E&W:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25858421
    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/feb/13/violent-sexual-crime-statistics-england-wales-2013

    Edit: in fact, you could say: "blooming immigrants, coming over here and making the country safer." ;-)
    "scared"

    Debate sensibly please
    I am. If you tried, you wouldn't post stories about crime in foreign climes and state that UKIP posters should be made about them./

    You're so scared, it's pathetic.
    I posted it as a joke, the joke being that UKIP turn any bad press about Romanains and Bulgarians into a PPB a la Upik News etc on twitter

    You misunderstood and have turned it into something it wasnt. I'll await an apology, though I dont expect one

    I would ask what you think it is I am scared of, but I think you said it in answer to a point you misunderstood, so Ill let you off
    Nope, not apologising. It was in no way clear it was a joke, or meant jokingly. In fact, I'd say you meant it.

    And it's not as if the more (ahem) fervent UKIPpers on here don't have form. Remember one proclaiming he was too scared to walk through Stepney?

    Lol, chortle, etc.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, oh aye, it's a triumph of style over substance.

    Mr Dancer, sometimes you need less intense sporting occasions

    That's what Snooker* is for.

    *insert slow sport of choice here.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Completely off topic, but I wish to record my undying detestation of BT. At home I currently have no phone line, no internet and no indication when BT will deign to rectify that state of affairs.

    This will put a crimp on further blogposts for the time being.

    I used to keep a pay-as-you-go mobile phone USB 'dongle' as a back up internet ISP.

    The best one in my experience was Three.

    http://www.three.co.uk/Discover/Mobile_Broadband

    We now have a home phone line and an internet connection back. Sadly, it appears that being very difficult with their staff pays dividends.
    Yawn. You are just the kind of customer that customer service workers detest. With good reason.

    Brag at will. Repent at leisure.

    Perhaps companies should set up customer service operations that are intended not to be a boot in the groin of their customers?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    ToryJim said:

    Money seems to have been going on OSBORNE in the Next Conservative Leader market. Latest best prices:

    Johnson 5/1 (various)
    May 6/1 (Lad)
    Gove 9/1 (Bet365, SkyBet)
    Hammond 12/1 (PP)
    Osborne 12/1 (BetFred, BetWay)
    Hague 20/1 (PP)

    It always baffles me to see Ms May touted as possible leader of the Conservative Party. She looks like a non-starter to me.

    Theresa May has more appeal across the party than you'd guess. She is incredibly popular on the liberal wing and because of her successes in deporting certain people has repaired her position with enough of the traditionalists.
    Is this Abu Qatada?

    As I understand it he wasn't deported. He left voluntarily.
    Whether or not that is the case (I honestly didn't recall, so I'll assume you have that right), I don't really see why she should get much credit for achieving it in any case, as finally getting something done after interminable delays long after it should have been completed does not cause that much gratitude I suspect.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Which is a good reason for border controls if you're one of the relatively wealthier countries.
    No, it isn't.
    Security firms selling high-end alarm systems to wealthy people would probably disagree.
    Linky please.

    Besides, crime is falling. Despite the police figures' cr@pness, everything points to a long-term and sustained fall in crime. Rather embarrassingly for those scared of immigrants, that also includes the period after accession.

    NHS figures:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27119689

    Crime survey of E&W:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25858421
    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/feb/13/violent-sexual-crime-statistics-england-wales-2013

    Edit: in fact, you could say: "blooming immigrants, coming over here and making the country safer." ;-)
    "everything points to a long-term and sustained fall in crime"

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/26/gangs-sexual-violence-warzones

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmhaff/uc182-vii/uc18201.htm

    everything points to the political class being perfectly willing to lie through their teeth about crime
    I'd like to know how the 'political class' are massaging the official police figures, the crime survey, and NHS admissions to show the same story of decreasing crime.

    I could believe one, and possible two at a stretch. But the NHS figures as well...

    You almost seem to be wanting crime to be going up. Why is that?
    "everything points to a long-term and sustained fall in crime"

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/26/gangs-sexual-violence-warzones

    Why do you ignore clear evidence that the crime stats are leaving stuff out?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    ToryJim said:

    Money seems to have been going on OSBORNE in the Next Conservative Leader market. Latest best prices:

    Johnson 5/1 (various)
    May 6/1 (Lad)
    Gove 9/1 (Bet365, SkyBet)
    Hammond 12/1 (PP)
    Osborne 12/1 (BetFred, BetWay)
    Hague 20/1 (PP)

    It always baffles me to see Ms May touted as possible leader of the Conservative Party. She looks like a non-starter to me.

    Theresa May has more appeal across the party than you'd guess. She is incredibly popular on the liberal wing and because of her successes in deporting certain people has repaired her position with enough of the traditionalists.
    Is this Abu Qatada?

    As I understand it he wasn't deported. He left voluntarily.
    I was more thinking of Hamza who was slung out involuntarily. For most people though the nuance over Qatada is not worrisome, she was the one who ensured the circumstances under which he was removed. On that one she gets points from the trads for the fact of it and points from the modernisers for the manner.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Mr. kle4, you're not in your 80s, are you? :p

    Ok, in fairness, I've been watching since 1994, but it sounded more impressive to mention the 7 years old thing instead when establishing 'long term F1 fan' credentials. :)
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    kle4 said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, oh aye, it's a triumph of style over substance.

    Mr Dancer, sometimes you need less intense sporting occasions

    That's what Snooker* is for.

    *insert slow sport of choice here.
    Oi snooker can be phenomenally intense in a safety battle
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    antifrank said:

    I expect that Labour's drift in the Newark market is related to this article:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html

    This is an incredibly poor decision, if true. The risk of the Conservatives winning comfortably and Labour coming third, increasing pressure further on Ed Miliband, is high.

    Under the circumstances isn't it more likely they discovered their vote had evaporated and they were trying to spin it.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Any reason why we have a PPB by Labour on Politicalbetting.com?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Which is a good reason for border controls if you're one of the relatively wealthier countries.
    No, it isn't.
    Security firms selling high-end alarm systems to wealthy people would probably disagree.
    Linky please.

    Besides, crime is falling. Despite the police figures' cr@pness, everything points to a long-term and sustained fall in crime. Rather embarrassingly for those scared of immigrants, that also includes the period after accession.

    NHS figures:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27119689

    Crime survey of E&W:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25858421
    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/feb/13/violent-sexual-crime-statistics-england-wales-2013

    Edit: in fact, you could say: "blooming immigrants, coming over here and making the country safer." ;-)
    "everything points to a long-term and sustained fall in crime"

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/26/gangs-sexual-violence-warzones

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmhaff/uc182-vii/uc18201.htm

    everything points to the political class being perfectly willing to lie through their teeth about crime
    I'd like to know how the 'political class' are massaging the official police figures, the crime survey, and NHS admissions to show the same story of decreasing crime.

    I could believe one, and possible two at a stretch. But the NHS figures as well...

    You almost seem to be wanting crime to be going up. Why is that?
    "everything points to a long-term and sustained fall in crime"

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/26/gangs-sexual-violence-warzones

    Why do you ignore clear evidence that the crime stats are leaving stuff out?
    I am not ignoring it. Far from, in fact.

    So why are you ignoring clear and obvious data showing that crime is falling? I know you have a rather unhealthy obsession with gang crime, but that is not all crime.

    The fact is, crime is falling, and has been since before the accession of the eastern European states. The reasons for this would be interesting to understand (in fact, why crime has decreased during the recession as well), but it won't be down to massive fiddling of the figures to the extent that the fall was in fact a rise.

    Don't make me send you the tinfoil-hat making instructions again...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014

    isam said:

    isam said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Which is a good reason for border controls if you're one of the relatively wealthier countries.
    No, it isn't.
    Security firms selling high-end alarm systems to wealthy people would probably disagree.
    Linky please.

    Besides, crime is falling. Despite the police figures' cr@pness, everything points to a long-term and sustained fall in crime. Rather embarrassingly for those scared of immigrants, that also includes the period after accession.

    NHS figures:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27119689

    Crime survey of E&W:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25858421
    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/feb/13/violent-sexual-crime-statistics-england-wales-2013

    Edit: in fact, you could say: "blooming immigrants, coming over here and making the country safer." ;-)
    "scared"

    Debate sensibly please
    I am. If you tried, you wouldn't post stories about crime in foreign climes and state that UKIP posters should be made about them./

    You're so scared, it's pathetic.
    I posted it as a joke, the joke being that UKIP turn any bad press about Romanains and Bulgarians into a PPB a la Upik News etc on twitter

    You misunderstood and have turned it into something it wasnt. I'll await an apology, though I dont expect one

    I would ask what you think it is I am scared of, but I think you said it in answer to a point you misunderstood, so Ill let you off
    Nope, not apologising. It was in no way clear it was a joke, or meant jokingly. In fact, I'd say you meant it.

    And it's not as if the more (ahem) fervent UKIPpers on here don't have form. Remember one proclaiming he was too scared to walk through Stepney?

    Lol, chortle, etc.
    Well ok, keep on digging. I wont forget that accusation of me being a liar. It was a joke, although I know sarcasm can be hard to detect online.

    If I meant it you must surely know by now that I would have argued my case until the rest of PB was bored of our bickering and the mods asked us to drop it.

    Please dont bother with lengthy tedious private messages to me about your work/wife whatever, Im not interested.




  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    ToryJim said:

    kle4 said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, oh aye, it's a triumph of style over substance.

    Mr Dancer, sometimes you need less intense sporting occasions

    That's what Snooker* is for.

    *insert slow sport of choice here.
    Oi snooker can be phenomenally intense in a safety battle
    Hey, I like Snooker too! It can get quite hypnotic.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    weejonnie said:

    Any reason why we have a PPB by Labour on Politicalbetting.com?

    Yes - we're tired. Today programme starts at 6am FTR
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    UK becomes first western country to be tried for war crimes
    The international criminal court's decision to investigate allegations of war crimes places the UK in the company of countries such as the Central African Republic, Colombia and Afghanistan.
    http://stopwar.org.uk/article/uk-is-first-western-state-to-be-investigated-for-war-crimes-by-international-court#.U3JQ9RDBp0z

    Investigated doesn't equal tried. Don't let Eck send you for his curry - he'll ask for 2 kormas and you'll come back with 2 phalls.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited May 2014

    #PublishThePoll is trending on twitter.

    I take it Nats don't do irony ?
    Is that like #Publishthelegaladvice, or #Publishthehotelbill, or #PublishanythingelsetheSNPhasmadeupasitwentalong?

This discussion has been closed.