@Avery. 4% of Labour voters, 4% of Lib Dem voters and 4% of women put Europe in their top issues.
A load of sad old blokes debating the details of Dave's renegotiation stance wont change that. It'll just make normal people look at the obsessives even more oddly.
And anyhow,whatever Dave gives his party will never be enough, when it comes to Europe its like throwing a big back of crack into a house full of junkies.
It's marginal votes that change results under FPTP. Did 3% of votes cost Cameron a majority ? Possibly.
Since the Tories became obsessed with Europe 2 decades ago, they have failed to win an election. It is the major ideological issue that splits the party, everything else is court politics about personalities.
You clearly don't know your political history. The Tories were obsessed about Europe in the late 1980s - it was the issue that more than any other led to the downfall of Thatcher. Yet they went on to win the 1992 election.
Sure, the split had its roots earlier, but it was only in the mid nineties that it became the dominant discourse.
Of course one way to heal the split would be to become a BOO party explicitly at the next election.
It risks losing centrist europhile voters such as myself though, and will lead to the splitters dream of ideological purity. Splitters often prefer ideological purity in opposition.
Any idea why UKIP has risen while the Tories talk a lot about Europe and immigration? Ever considered the fact that they might be linked?
What's that got to do with the price of fish ? The issue is what Ed has done not Dave. I don't exclude the possibility that Ed has done BOO a favour since by prevaricating he gives them more time to get their act together rather than call their bluff when they're not ready. Shades of Holyrood 2009/10.
It's marginal votes that change results under FPTP. Certainly true, and Cameron's positioning has resulted in 20% of 2010 Tories bailing out and going to UKIP
and Ed's no referendum stance could cost him 4%, possibly more if Europe becomes a bigger issue.
From the 1970 until 1992, I voted Labour (I still have a soft spot for Kinnock despite his wind-baggery), From then until now, I've voted LD. I've become slightly anti-EU but could be re-converted by a convincing financial argument. However, I d like that argument.
I'm no Ed fan (they had the Badger or the Postie and they picked a dud) and that may be the reason that I find his referendum stance irritating. But I also find Cleggy irritating now - posh boys telling us we're too thick to make a decision.
So I'm genuinely up for grabs ... at the moment it's between UKIP (to annoy both Labour or LD) or to abstain for the first time in my life. Not that it matters, Shaun the parachutist will get in here anyway..
Any idea why UKIP has risen while the Tories talk a lot about Europe and immigration? Ever considered the fact that they might be linked?
What's that got to do with the price of fish ? The issue is what Ed has done not Dave. I don't exclude the possibility that Ed has done BOO a favour since by prevaricating he gives them more time to get their act together rather than call their bluff when they're not ready. Shades of Holyrood 2009/10.
Ed doesn't need to do much on Europe yet. Cameron did what he thought would unite his party but gave UKIP a boost and failed to unite his party.
The idea that Ed (or Nick) has a problem on Europe and Dave doesn't is nonsense
well so you say. But you're trying to get the issue on to Cameron and away from Miliband's no. As I said earlier if OGH is right Ed has nothing to worry about if he's wrong Ed has shot himself in the foot. Personally I agree with NPXMP this morning that the best thing for Labour to do is ignore it, by raisng the profile it becomes an issue and more voters will start to chgange their positions. Ed has taken a step in that direction.
It's marginal votes that change results under FPTP. Certainly true, and Cameron's positioning has resulted in 20% of 2010 Tories bailing out and going to UKIP
tim
You know that Europe is not the reason that UKIP has risen so rapidly in the polls.
One of the main reasons that Europe scores so low in 'salience' polling is that it is not understood in any detail by the majority of the public and they cannot relate the political debate to the reality of their daily lives.
Hence the reason that Farage is blaming the EU for excessive current immigration and the threat of the Romanians and Bulgarians to come.
So which is the issue: immigration or Europe? If Farage is successful in linking the two the salience of the EU alone is irrelevant.
And you know the salience of immigration to the UK electorate. It is so strong that you passed to Neil a link to Kellner's findings without so much as a single comment indicating its subject.
Everyone!. Follow tim's link! Below on this thread!
The Sunday People @thesundaypeople 15m A woman unable to pay her bills because of the Bedroom Tax has committed suicide. She left her son a note blaming the Government
Somehow I doubt whether George Osborne will be drooling over that funeral as he did over the Philpotts.
You are a very unpleasant man.
If true, and I have no idea, then posting the story would have been sufficient to inform. Don't try to make political capital out of someone's personal tragedy
"David Cameron acts to stem Tory rebellion over EU referendum
Ministers told to abstain during Eurosceptic move to condemn Queen's speech
David Cameron has ordered his ministers to abstain in a pivotal Commons vote on a future EU referendum next week, in a blow to his Eurosceptic colleagues.
Tory backbenchers will force a vote on Wednesday condemning the Queen's speech for failing to include legislation committing the country to an in/out referendum. Sources close to the prime minister last week suggested he was "relaxed" about the vote, which is an amendment to the Queen's speech, and could even give all his MPs a free vote.
However, over the weekend it emerged that he will not allow Eurosceptic ministers, such as work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith and the environment secretary Owen Paterson, to vote on the amendment, which in effect attacks their own legislative plans. Instead a free vote has only been granted to backbench MPs and parliamentary private secretaries – the senior backbenchers who act as ministerial aides. One senior backbencher said that colleagues were "disappointed" by the move.
Despite Cameron's decision, there is growing confidence among Tory MPs that he will ultimately break coalition ranks and deliver the legislation his backbenchers are demanding. They believe that the public will only trust Cameron's promise of a 2017 referendum if there is a law to back it up.
Any idea why UKIP has risen while the Tories talk a lot about Europe and immigration? Ever considered the fact that they might be linked?
What's that got to do with the price of fish ? The issue is what Ed has done not Dave. I don't exclude the possibility that Ed has done BOO a favour since by prevaricating he gives them more time to get their act together rather than call their bluff when they're not ready. Shades of Holyrood 2009/10.
Ed doesn't need to do much on Europe yet. Cameron did what he thought would unite his party but gave UKIP a boost and failed to unite his party.
The idea that Ed (or Nick) has a problem on Europe and Dave doesn't is nonsense
well so you say. But you're trying to get the issue on to Cameron and away from Miliband's no. As I said earlier if OGH is right Ed has nothing to worry about if he's wrong Ed has shot himself in the foot. Personally I agree with NPXMP this morning that the best thing for Labour to do is ignore it, by raisng the profile it becomes an issue and more voters will start to chgange their positions. Ed has taken a step in that direction.
Ed's position is exactly the same as it was. He obviously had to mention it dues to the stories about Cameron voting against his own Queens Speech.
Any idea why UKIP has risen while the Tories talk a lot about Europe and immigration? Ever considered the fact that they might be linked?
What's that got to do with the price of fish ? The issue is what Ed has done not Dave. I don't exclude the possibility that Ed has done BOO a favour since by prevaricating he gives them more time to get their act together rather than call their bluff when they're not ready. Shades of Holyrood 2009/10.
Ed doesn't need to do much on Europe yet. Cameron did what he thought would unite his party but gave UKIP a boost and failed to unite his party.
The idea that Ed (or Nick) has a problem on Europe and Dave doesn't is nonsense
well so you say. But you're trying to get the issue on to Cameron and away from Miliband's no. As I said earlier if OGH is right Ed has nothing to worry about if he's wrong Ed has shot himself in the foot. Personally I agree with NPXMP this morning that the best thing for Labour to do is ignore it, by raisng the profile it becomes an issue and more voters will start to chgange their positions. Ed has taken a step in that direction.
Ed's position is exactly the same as it was. He obviously had to mention it dues to the stories about Cameron voting against his own Queens Speech.
Ed's position might be the same as it was - wibble - but it's the reporting of that position and the perception which will change. This isn't exactly under his control any more.
@SophyRidgeSky: Sunday People: Woman struggling with "bedroom tax" commits suicide, leaving a note blaming the Government http://t.co/jO5VeCfvcs
Tory scum.
Many many government policies hit people hard, no matter who is in power, and almost any policy change, even if almost wholly beneficial, will include examples of some who were not.
It doesn't mean when tragedy strikes that they are scum, unless you are suggesting they are actively evil, which is an absurdity.
Writing in @thetimes, Portillo says senior ministers "whinge about Europe but don't have the self-confidence to pull out"
In case any tories didn't realise who Portillo was having a pop at there this might help.
IDS threat to quit: I won't vote against my Eurosceptic principles again, warns ex-leader
The Work and Pensions Secretary has been involved in a huge row with the Tory Chief Whip 'If you ever put me in this position again, that’s it,' he is believed to have said
Iain Duncan Smith has threatened to quit the Government if David Cameron ever again tries to force him to vote against his Eurosceptic principles.
At least there's no danger of Cammie trying that again IDS, is there?
Sources close to the prime minister last week suggested he was "relaxed" about the vote, which is an amendment to the Queen's speech, and could even give all his MPs a free vote.
However, over the weekend it emerged that he will not allow Eurosceptic ministers, such as work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith and the environment secretary Owen Paterson, to vote on the amendment
I suspect IDS may soon find his Eurosceptic credentials are not what they once were among backbenchers.
@TheScreamingEagles Tory says Labour Leader made a crap speech. That's never happened before.
Have a butchers at that speech: you will squirm.
I'd rather count the number of wrinkles on my dog's testicles* than read a politician's speech.
*If I had a dog
perhaps youn should give dogging a try, lots of fresh air and the chance to meet people. If it works then you can get a dog.
Blimey a little early in the evening to describe your love life, Alan!
It gets me out of the house Sunil, some of my friends use the excuse they're going train spotting - cough cough
Steady on! Nothing sleazy regarding trainspotting - unless it's the Danny Boyle/Irvine Welsh version!
Well so you tell us Sunil, but when you spend your time watching big thrusting monsters pushing into expectant tunnels what are we to think ?
What if I told you there are no tunnels on the Epping Ongar Railway?
Couldn't the point where it passes under the M11 count as a tunnel? We could have hours of endless fun discussing when a bridge is a tunnel and vice versa.
It's a tragic case, but I fail to see why the spare room subsidy is an evil and wicked thing whereas the same policy for non-state property is acceptable (I believe it's been the case for private accommodation for years and was begun under Labour).
I suppose if the government banned state-funded homeopathy (which I would wholeheartedly support) and someone killed themselves and blamed the government for it we'd have the same sort of response.
To be honest, I was somewhat unsure about posting this. I'm not very comfortable having a discussion about policy with the backdrop of such a personal tragedy.
I think the key here is weirdly enough the EU. If the EU fails to tackle the Greeks, the Cypriots, the Italians and the Spanish in a way that deficits are falling and unemployment is falling. Then your average Brit may notice the continued shambles however much it is spun and will no doubt conclude that Britain will end up paying to help keep the Eurozone together (maybe through increased contributions, maybe through transaction taxes, maybe through EU directives forcing higher capital ratios) despite it basically being a policy to keep German goods competitive and that is one of the better scenarios, the worst case is the south european countries say enough is enough and leave the Euro (lets hope without blood on the streets) and the EU has itself an omnishambles. Either way parties that are Anti EU will benefit. Parties that are idealogically pro EU I am thinking Labour and the Lib Dems here may look just a little daft. They really need to pray that borrowing funded "Growth" in the eurozone is spun for all its worth before 2015 and it fools enough of the people for long enough.
I think the key here is weirdly enough the EU. If the EU fails to tackle the Greeks, the Cypriots, the Italians and the Spanish in a way that deficits are falling and unemployment is falling. Then your average Brit may notice the continued shambles however much it is spun and will no doubt conclude that Britain will end up paying to help keep the Eurozone together (maybe through increased contributions, maybe through transaction taxes, maybe through EU directives forcing higher capital ratios) despite it basically being a policy to keep German goods competitive and that is one of the better scenarios, the worst case is the south european countries say enough is enough and leave the Euro (lets hope without blood on the streets) and the EU has itself an omnishambles. Either way parties that are Anti EU will benefit. Parties that are idealogically pro EU I am thinking Labour and the Lib Dems here may look just a little daft. They really need to pray that borrowing funded "Growth" in the eurozone is spun for all its worth before 2015 and it fools enough of the people for long enough.
Problem being the tory leadership is in favour of the EU and staying in. Hence the BOO tories beginning to put their cards on the table and preparing for a time when it may not be.
Money troubles are the final straw in a number of suicides. Two years ago a small businessman acquaintance of mine killed himself after both his business then marriage collapsed.
It is one reason why we need to get both personal and government debt under control. Boom and bust ruins lives.
I think things must be bad for Labour again - the Tim/Pork double act are in full swinging endless repetitive rants about Tory scum and fops - they really need to get lives.
@TheScreamingEagles Tory says Labour Leader made a crap speech. That's never happened before.
Have a butchers at that speech: you will squirm.
I'd rather count the number of wrinkles on my dog's testicles* than read a politician's speech.
*If I had a dog
perhaps youn should give dogging a try, lots of fresh air and the chance to meet people. If it works then you can get a dog.
Blimey a little early in the evening to describe your love life, Alan!
It gets me out of the house Sunil, some of my friends use the excuse they're going train spotting - cough cough
Steady on! Nothing sleazy regarding trainspotting - unless it's the Danny Boyle/Irvine Welsh version!
Well so you tell us Sunil, but when you spend your time watching big thrusting monsters pushing into expectant tunnels what are we to think ?
What if I told you there are no tunnels on the Epping Ongar Railway?
Couldn't the point where it passes under the M11 count as a tunnel? We could have hours of endless fun discussing when a bridge is a tunnel and vice versa.
Or perhaps not... ;-)
No that's a bridge, it's only 6 lanes plus hard shoulders wide! Anyway, you may be interested to know when it was built in the 1970s, the bridge was sufficiently high above track level only for tube stock, so the approaches either side had to be lowered to fit heritage main line stock underneath from 2005 onwards.
I think this might be more complicated than the face value of the issue (not that the EU and/or a referendum upon it is insignificant). We've all spoken about the anti-Establishment glee with which people back UKIP. It's as much about kicking the big three parties as backing Farage.
Saying 'no referendum' will probably not be an issue or have active support from pro-EU sorts as well as those who believe it may be a worthy issue but isn't top of the agenda. However, it does smack of "I know best. No need for you people to have some sort of say."
Must say I find the Lib Dem approach most amusing. Wasn't this appalling referendum in their last manifesto?
The LibDems are almost as opportunistic and incoherent as ukip. During the debates on the Lisbon Treaty they said that a referendum on the treaty was not appropriate, it would be better to have an in/out referendum. Any future coalition involving the LibDums will require extensive contingency planning by their partners for situations when the LDs renege on their promises.
F1: tomorrow's going to be a fascinating race. Will Mercedes be able to hold on? I believe not, hence the Raikkonen bet. How will Vettel, Raikkonen and Alonso stack up against one another?
Perez now starts 6th, which is very impressive given the state of the McLaren. It transpired that the tyres Button had had some sort of pressure issue, partially explaining his poor pace. Incidentally, Massa and Gutierrez both have 3 place penalties for impeding other drivers.
Must I repost all their drooling over Cammie and Osbrowne's welfare posturing over the Philpott criminal case?
But I would expect you to condemn the People for making political hay out of single tragic case in the same way that you condemned the Daily Mail for exploiting a single tragic case for political ends. Or do double standards only apply to other people?
Surely this lady, God rest her soul, must have had some mental issues to commit suicide over £20 a week? What about the poor lorry driver whose life is probably ruined by this?
Immigration is a bigger driver of Tories to UKIP than Europe.
Half of the immigration issue is Europe.
Less than half, but I take your point. It's madness for the Tories to be trying to out UKIP UKIP, they either stand for Thatcherite free movement or the cede the whole argument.
Why should your conception of Thatcherite free movement be limited to the EU? If a politician is going to think about immigration in an ideological absolutist libertarian way, then we should not have any restrictions on people coming here at all.
It's worthwhile at this point in the debate of posting Thatcher's actual views on immigration:
There was a committee which looked at it and said that if we went on as we are then by the end of the century there would be four million people of the new Commonwealth or Pakistan here.
Now, that is an awful lot and I think it means that people are really rather afraid that this country might be rather swamped by people with a different culture and, you know, the British character has done so much for democracy, for law and done so much throughout the world that if there is any fear that it might be swamped people are going to react and be rather hostile to those coming in.
So, if you want good race relations, you have got to allay peoples’ fears on numbers. Now, the key to this was not what Keith Speed said just a couple of weeks ago. It really was what Willie Whitelaw said at the Conservative Party Conference in Brighton, where he said we must hold out the clear prospect of an end to immigration because at the moment it is about between 45,000 and 50,000 people coming in a year.
Now, I was brought up in a small town, 25,000. That would be two new towns a year and that is quite a lot. So, we do have to hold out the prospect of an end to immigration except, of course, for compassionate cases.
But Tim, you do drool over that woman's death. You delight in it, because she provides you with an attack line.
Inevitable, that David Cameron, who milked the taxpayer for his spare rooms in the Cotswolds, who will die in a ditch to prevent millionaire pensioners to be taxed on their spare rooms who along with his chancellor used the Philpott deaths, would introduce this policy deliberately aimed at the most vulnerable, and unavoidable for most due to the lack of places to move to.
Each family that moves into a larger house frees up a smaller one and vice versa. It would be easier if there was a float of vacant properties (I had this discussion with MrsB ages ago) but that is inefficient
But you are quite happy to ignore the facts in your pursuit of perceived political advantage
Three Tory Govts signed up to a single market with free movement of labour capital goods and services The current Tory PM is on record as wanting to strengthen and deepen that free market.
We do not have the same free market with Russia, Brazil or the USA for example.
So you argument is that Cameron should support free movement in the EU because we've previously signed up to the EU and he's said he's supported it in the past?
The same arguments equally apply to Ed Miliband and holding a referendum on our membership.
Prime Minister David Cameron is facing a leadership challenge as up to 70 Tory MPs prepare to sign a letter of no confidence, the Sunday People reports .
I would expect to hear Boris was standing at a by-election before tory MPs triggered a leadership contest.
Surely this lady, God rest her soul, must have had some mental issues to commit suicide over £20 a week? What about the poor lorry driver who's life is probably ruined by this?
I'm struggling with the fact that she had been taking medication for MG since the age of 9, apparently too ill for a job, but has never been registered as disabled.
An American just said to me regarding Eurovision: "I don't understand this contest. They seem to deliberately enter untalented people. They award points in a completely random way. I'm just confused why people watch this."
Genuine question to Eurovision fans: are most countries' entries genuinely among their best talent, or do they consider it a joke like the UK does?
@Socrates My argument is that Cameron believes in the single market because he says he does, as does Clegg, as does Miliband. I understand Farage doesn't but supports membership of the EEA. All four support free movement of workers don't they?
Not sure how Brit pensioners living in the EU would be impacted by EEA membership.
You know PBTories. Their idea of "renegotiation" is this: Brits would be allowed to go and retire in Spain, use their health services.
EU people cannot come to the UK to use our health services.
Indeed. I liked the original reboot, but this one was superior in most ways.
I'm actually a defender of the Star Wars prequels, dumb and poor in places though they were, but I think a lot of people weer worried what the next one will be like under Disney, but I think J J Abrams has proven with Star Trek he knows how to delicately handle diehard fans, attact new audiences, and make a kickass movie as well, so is great choice.
It even had fewer lens flares!
ETA; I see the guardian disagrees, saying it will underwhelm even the most committed of fans, but they're talking nonsense, as I'm no trekkie (never seen an original series episode all the way through for a start)
@Socrates My argument is that Cameron believes in the single market because he says he does, as does Clegg, as does Miliband. I understand Farage doesn't but supports membership of the EEA. All four support free movement of workers don't they?
Not sure how Brit pensioners living in the EU would be impacted by EEA membership.
I'm happy to be proven wrong, but I believe Nigel Farage believes the EEA should just be a "holding position":
Three Tory Govts signed up to a single market with free movement of labour capital goods and services The current Tory PM is on record as wanting to strengthen and deepen that free market.
We do not have the same free market with Russia, Brazil or the USA for example.
So you argument is that Cameron should support free movement in the EU because we've previously signed up to the EU and he's said he's supported it in the past?
The same arguments equally apply to Ed Miliband and holding a referendum on our membership.
Isn't the free movement enshrined in the EEA ? Farage supports it, doesn't he ?
An American just said to me regarding Eurovision: "I don't understand this contest. They seem to deliberately enter untalented people. They award points in a completely random way. I'm just confused why people watch this."
Genuine question to Eurovision fans: are most countries' entries genuinely among their best talent, or do they consider it a joke like the UK does?
Most countries seem to be serious, but there are always a few that make you wonder.
Free movement of workers is a holding position? that's amusing in itself. What about pensioners? Can Brit pensioners retire to the Med in Nigel's brave new world?
No, the EEA should be a holding position while we negotiate a bilateral trade deal.
In terms of British pensioners, I'd imagine the depressed Mediterranean economies would be pretty mad to reject the spending power of old people without having to pay pension costs.
Eurovision is awesome because of the campness of some of the entries and the truly bizarre voting patterns.
Plus it allows to laugh at Johnny Foreigner,
Just remember some of the truly great British Bands have never entered Eurovision, bands like Queen, The Rolling Stones, Steps, Pink Floyd, Led Zep, New Order, The Sex Pistols etc.
But the Europeans entrants are the best that country can offer.
@Socrates My argument is that Cameron believes in the single market because he says he does, as does Clegg, as does Miliband. I understand Farage doesn't but supports membership of the EEA. All four support free movement of workers don't they?
Not sure how Brit pensioners living in the EU would be impacted by EEA membership.
You know PBTories. Their idea of "renegotiation" is this: Brits would be allowed to go and retire in Spain, use their health services.
EU people cannot come to the UK to use our health services.
@Socrates My argument is that Cameron believes in the single market because he says he does, as does Clegg, as does Miliband. I understand Farage doesn't but supports membership of the EEA. All four support free movement of workers don't they?
Not sure how Brit pensioners living in the EU would be impacted by EEA membership.
I'm happy to be proven wrong, but I believe Nigel Farage believes the EEA should just be a "holding position":
The important thing is reversing the direction of travel. If that involves a halfway house before full exit to calm people's nerves then that'll have to do - although personally i'm thinking the tide is swinging the eurosceptic way so it might not come to that.
@Socrates My argument is that Cameron believes in the single market because he says he does, as does Clegg, as does Miliband. I understand Farage doesn't but supports membership of the EEA. All four support free movement of workers don't they?
Not sure how Brit pensioners living in the EU would be impacted by EEA membership.
You know PBTories. Their idea of "renegotiation" is this: Brits would be allowed to go and retire in Spain, use their health services.
EU people cannot come to the UK to use our health services.
Surby.
Are you drinking what tim's drinking?
Avery ? Still up ? Holding on to the blue flame ? Even Nabavi has gone quiet. Fitalass has more or less disappeared. Plato ?
It's a tragic case, but I fail to see why the spare room subsidy is an evil and wicked thing whereas the same policy for non-state property is acceptable (I believe it's been the case for private accommodation for years and was begun under Labour).
I suppose if the government banned state-funded homeopathy (which I would wholeheartedly support) and someone killed themselves and blamed the government for it we'd have the same sort of response.
To be honest, I was somewhat unsure about posting this. I'm not very comfortable having a discussion about policy with the backdrop of such a personal tragedy.
We've had all the arguments over the bedroom tax many times already.
very long post deleted
I would rather we avoid rehearsing these same arguments about the bedroom tax with an added argument over whether it caused a suicide. It's never that simple. Perhaps this is one of those times to take advantage of the anonymity of the internet - I'm never likely to meet any of you, and so it is easier to talk of these things.
I once had to go to A&E for stitches for self-inflicted knife wounds. Things had been pretty fraught with my daughter's mother for a while before then for a variety of reasons, but the thing that tipped me over the edge that evening was an argument about a tin of mackerel. When I opened the tin of mackerel my daughter's mother declared that it looked like a brain, but I disagreed. She could not accept that I would have a different opinion about the visual similarity between a brain and a tin of mackerel (in tomato sauce) and I was not willing to pretend to change my mind to humour her. So amidst all the other problems we were struggling to deal with we contrived to have an enormous row about a tin of mackerel.
It was the seeming futility of the situation I had found myself in, where even expressing a minor difference of opinion could provoke a massive disturbance, that temporarily convinced me that there was no hope, and no escape to be had except for that afforded by hurting myself as much as possible.
Too many of the arguments on pb.com remind me of that argument. Too many people hurling words at each other as though those words constitute proof, but not enough listening or compassion to understand the meaning, the thoughts and emotions that prompted those words.
There's no point in talking to someone who will not listen. That is why one does not feed the Trolls. It's not that the Trolls aren't hungry, but because they will just through that food back at you, and so you are wasting your time.
Once I have had a bath I would love to listen to any explanation you may have for why there was such a long gap between the innovation of democracy in the Ancient world and democracy in the modern world.
Eurovision is awesome because of the campness of some of the entries and the truly bizarre voting patterns.
Plus it allows to laugh at Johnny Foreigner,
Just remember some of the truly great British Bands have never entered Eurovision, bands like Queen, The Rolling Stones, Steps, Pink Floyd, Led Zep, New Order, The Sex Pistols etc.
But the Europeans entrants are the best that country can offer.
All true, but we win a lot of things internationally, so do Germany, France, Italy etc.
What other international contests do Latvia, Finland and Azerbaijan win? With the prize being the chance to be the center of Europe for one night, highlighting their country?
And I find it heartening that the Balkans vote for each other, when just twenty years ago they were killing each other'
Let's wait and see. Labour may have a big bang planned on housing benefit
Fair does. My instinct is that Labour don't have the guts to do it, but I won't pretend I am qualified to make an assessment of the dynamics of Labour Party policymaking.
Eurovision is awesome because of the campness of some of the entries and the truly bizarre voting patterns.
Plus it allows to laugh at Johnny Foreigner,
Just remember some of the truly great British Bands have never entered Eurovision, bands like Queen, The Rolling Stones, Steps, Pink Floyd, Led Zep, New Order, The Sex Pistols etc.
But the Europeans entrants are the best that country can offer.
All true, but we win a lot of things internationally, so do Germany, France, Italy etc.
What other international contests do Latvia, Finland and Azerbaijan win? With the prize being the chance to be the center of Europe for one night, highlighting their country?
And I find it heartening that the Balkans vote for each other, when just twenty years ago they were killing each other'
Plus, let's not forget the drinking games, especially when Sir Terry was our commentator.
Free movement of workers is a holding position? that's amusing in itself. What about pensioners? Can Brit pensioners retire to the Med in Nigel's brave new world?
No, the EEA should be a holding position while we negotiate a bilateral trade deal.
In terms of British pensioners, I'd imagine the depressed Mediterranean economies would be pretty mad to reject the spending power of old people without having to pay pension costs.
All imagining and vague. Guess it doesn't matter really, very few people vote UKIP for policy reasons.
Few people vote for any party for specific policy reasons. It's about general direction.
@Socrates My argument is that Cameron believes in the single market because he says he does, as does Clegg, as does Miliband. I understand Farage doesn't but supports membership of the EEA. All four support free movement of workers don't they?
Not sure how Brit pensioners living in the EU would be impacted by EEA membership.
You know PBTories. Their idea of "renegotiation" is this: Brits would be allowed to go and retire in Spain, use their health services.
EU people cannot come to the UK to use our health services.
Surby.
Are you drinking what tim's drinking?
Avery ? Still up ? Holding on to the blue flame ? Even Nabavi has gone quiet. Fitalass has more or less disappeared. Plato ?
We work individual shifts at the weekend.
It is the only way of complying with the EU Working Hours Directive,
Free movement of workers is a holding position? that's amusing in itself. What about pensioners? Can Brit pensioners retire to the Med in Nigel's brave new world?
No, the EEA should be a holding position while we negotiate a bilateral trade deal.
In terms of British pensioners, I'd imagine the depressed Mediterranean economies would be pretty mad to reject the spending power of old people without having to pay pension costs.
All imagining and vague. Guess it doesn't matter really, very few people vote UKIP for policy reasons.
Few people vote for any party for specific policy reasons. It's about general direction.
It's a tragic case, but I fail to see why the spare room subsidy is an evil and wicked thing whereas the same policy for non-state property is acceptable (I believe it's been the case for private accommodation for years and was begun under Labour).
I suppose if the government banned state-funded homeopathy (which I would wholeheartedly support) and someone killed themselves and blamed the government for it we'd have the same sort of response.
To be honest, I was somewhat unsure about posting this. I'm not very comfortable having a discussion about policy with the backdrop of such a personal tragedy.
We've had all the arguments over the bedroom tax many times already.
very long post deleted
I would rather we avoid rehearsing these same arguments about the bedroom tax with an added argument over whether it caused a suicide. It's never that simple. Perhaps this is one of those times to take advantage of the anonymity of the internet - I'm never likely to meet any of you, and so it is easier to talk of these things.
I once had to go to A&E for stitches for self-inflicted knife wounds. Things had been pretty fraught with my daughter's mother for a while before then for a variety of reasons, but the thing that tipped me over the edge that evening was an argument about a tin of mackerel. When I opened the tin of mackerel my daughter's mother declared that it looked like a brain, but I disagreed. She could not accept that I would have a different opinion about the visual similarity between a brain and a tin of mackerel (in tomato sauce) and I was not willing to pretend to change my mind to humour her. So amidst all the other problems we were struggling to deal with we contrived to have an enormous row about a tin of mackerel.
It was the seeming futility of the situation I had found myself in, where even expressing a minor difference of opinion could provoke a massive disturbance, that temporarily convinced me that there was no hope, and no escape to be had except for that afforded by hurting myself as much as possible.
Too many of the arguments on pb.com remind me of that argument. Too many people hurling words at each other as though those words constitute proof, but not enough listening or compassion to understand the meaning, the thoughts and emotions that prompted those words.
There's no point in talking to someone who will not listen. That is why one does not feed the Trolls. It's not that the Trolls aren't hungry, but because they will just through that food back at you, and so you are wasting your time.
Once I have had a bath I would love to listen to any explanation you may have for why there was such a long gap between the innovation of democracy in the Ancient world and democracy in the modern world.
Hear Hear!
Because democracy needs stability and respect for the rule of law. The period between the Ancient and the modern world was characterised by a lack of this. Even times like the Tudor or the Stuart periods were really ruled by monarchical whimsy
Just wanted to comment that Mike has put up this graph before and as a market researcher I find it really misleading. The conclusion is that the EU has become less important for voters but actually it has become RELATIVELY less important. We have no way of knowing if it has become less important in ABSOLUTE terms.
Let me give you an example suppose we asked the voters how important a set of issues are on a scale of 1-10. We get the following results:
Issue A - 8 Issue B - 7 Issue C - 6 Issue D - 5
2 years later we ask them again and we get the following results:
Issue A - 8 Issue B - 9 Issue C - 5 Issue D - 10
In relative terms issue A has become less important but in absolute terms it is still just as important.
If all the other issues had stayed the same over the period in the chart we could indeed conclude the EU was less important. However, if you charted out the graphs for the economy and unemployment I expect you would see a reverse trend, starting low and then increasing. These issues are clearly more important than the EU at the moment but it doesn't mean people care about the EU less.
To put it another way, if your house is on fire, your immediate concern is not going to be the NHS.
An American just said to me regarding Eurovision: "I don't understand this contest. They seem to deliberately enter untalented people. They award points in a completely random way. I'm just confused why people watch this."
Genuine question to Eurovision fans: are most countries' entries genuinely among their best talent, or do they consider it a joke like the UK does?
Depends what you mean by best. Most countries want to win but they aim to pick a song that fits the show's profile, including the wide age range of voters. They're not typical of young people's music choices. They do see it as mainly a bit of fun, but they don't jeer at it like many Brits do.
{snip} and as a market researcher I find it really misleading{snip}
In the absence of buttons "Like", or if we were commenting on Slashdot "Informative"
I don't like these importance surveys at all because they can mean all things to all men. We make an assumption of the results - that people would choose the NHS, for example, because they believe the 1,200 deaths at Mid-Staffs could have been stopped with an endless supply of extra money. But those who are concerned about the story and believe that the deaths would have been avoided with a fully privatised insurance system would have to tick the same box.
Defence would get the same tick from an unreconstructed CND weirdo as a send-a-gunboat type. Devolution would get the same tick from a separatist as a get-rid-of-the-spongers advocate.
The survey doesn't tell us *why* a subject is important to the person answering. As observers we fill in our own prejudices for that part. It gives a hint as to what we might argue about in the pub, but not what opinion we might have on it.
Which makes it pretty irrelevant unless you want to cherry-pick it for partisan reasons.
62% of people think there should be a referendum on Europe, with the vast majority of these thinking it should be held before the next general election. People also tend to think it would be possible for David Cameron to deliver this if he really wanted to - 48% think that Cameron would be able to get the support of other parties for a referendum if he tried, compared to 31% who think other parties would not agree to holding a referendum before the election.
In practice, most people still do not expect there to be a referendum in the near future. Only 6% expect a referendum this Parliament, only 31% in the next Parliament.
Which makes it pretty irrelevant unless you want to cherry-pick it for partisan reasons.
See my post downthread. Salience has its relevance, but it is only part of the story - it's about calculating the significance of leads on given topics in a 2 party system
Some interesting YouGov polling on the Monarchy in the Sunday Times via yougov.
Is worth looking over when yougov publish their data in the morning.
Do you have the headline figures, or are you just a big tease
Just a change around from their last polling in March.
A majority 53% of people think the Queen should remain in her role for life, compared to 33% who think she should abdicate. Asked specifically about what should happen if the Queen were to become too ill to carry out her duties, 48% think she should then abdicate, 43% think she should continue as Queen
Comments
Ukraine's staging is weird IMO.
Georgia is classic Eurovision...duet with pyros, fog, wind machine, pyro shower, flames
Of course one way to heal the split would be to become a BOO party explicitly at the next election.
It risks losing centrist europhile voters such as myself though, and will lead to the splitters dream of ideological purity. Splitters often prefer ideological purity in opposition.
tim,
From the 1970 until 1992, I voted Labour (I still have a soft spot for Kinnock despite his wind-baggery), From then until now, I've voted LD. I've become slightly anti-EU but could be re-converted by a convincing financial argument. However, I d like that argument.
I'm no Ed fan (they had the Badger or the Postie and they picked a dud) and that may be the reason that I find his referendum stance irritating. But I also find Cleggy irritating now - posh boys telling us we're too thick to make a decision.
So I'm genuinely up for grabs ... at the moment it's between UKIP (to annoy both Labour or LD) or to abstain for the first time in my life. Not that it matters, Shaun the parachutist will get in here anyway..
Yes, they do seem to be geting upset over non-offers on an EU referendum, don't they?
You know that Europe is not the reason that UKIP has risen so rapidly in the polls.
One of the main reasons that Europe scores so low in 'salience' polling is that it is not understood in any detail by the majority of the public and they cannot relate the political debate to the reality of their daily lives.
Hence the reason that Farage is blaming the EU for excessive current immigration and the threat of the Romanians and Bulgarians to come.
So which is the issue: immigration or Europe? If Farage is successful in linking the two the salience of the EU alone is irrelevant.
And you know the salience of immigration to the UK electorate. It is so strong that you passed to Neil a link to Kellner's findings without so much as a single comment indicating its subject.
Everyone!. Follow tim's link! Below on this thread!
;-)
If true, and I have no idea, then posting the story would have been sufficient to inform. Don't try to make political capital out of someone's personal tragedy
Ministers told to abstain during Eurosceptic move to condemn Queen's speech
David Cameron has ordered his ministers to abstain in a pivotal Commons vote on a future EU referendum next week, in a blow to his Eurosceptic colleagues.
Tory backbenchers will force a vote on Wednesday condemning the Queen's speech for failing to include legislation committing the country to an in/out referendum. Sources close to the prime minister last week suggested he was "relaxed" about the vote, which is an amendment to the Queen's speech, and could even give all his MPs a free vote.
However, over the weekend it emerged that he will not allow Eurosceptic ministers, such as work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith and the environment secretary Owen Paterson, to vote on the amendment, which in effect attacks their own legislative plans. Instead a free vote has only been granted to backbench MPs and parliamentary private secretaries – the senior backbenchers who act as ministerial aides. One senior backbencher said that colleagues were "disappointed" by the move.
Despite Cameron's decision, there is growing confidence among Tory MPs that he will ultimately break coalition ranks and deliver the legislation his backbenchers are demanding. They believe that the public will only trust Cameron's promise of a 2017 referendum if there is a law to back it up.
It doesn't mean when tragedy strikes that they are scum, unless you are suggesting they are actively evil, which is an absurdity.
mindless trolling.
I suspect IDS may soon find his Eurosceptic credentials are not what they once were among backbenchers.
Or perhaps not... ;-)
It's a tragic case, but I fail to see why the spare room subsidy is an evil and wicked thing whereas the same policy for non-state property is acceptable (I believe it's been the case for private accommodation for years and was begun under Labour).
I suppose if the government banned state-funded homeopathy (which I would wholeheartedly support) and someone killed themselves and blamed the government for it we'd have the same sort of response.
To be honest, I was somewhat unsure about posting this. I'm not very comfortable having a discussion about policy with the backdrop of such a personal tragedy.
Must I repost all their drooling over Cammie and Osbrowne's welfare posturing over the Philpott criminal case?
Welcome and please stay.
It is one reason why we need to get both personal and government debt under control. Boom and bust ruins lives.
Perez now starts 6th, which is very impressive given the state of the McLaren. It transpired that the tyres Button had had some sort of pressure issue, partially explaining his poor pace. Incidentally, Massa and Gutierrez both have 3 place penalties for impeding other drivers.
I don't know if they have secured just to be on the 2014 list or the right to be at the top (again). We will probably get a clue tomorrow.
There was a committee which looked at it and said that if we went on as we are then by the end of the century there would be four million people of the new Commonwealth or Pakistan here.
Now, that is an awful lot and I think it means that people are really rather afraid that this country might be rather swamped by people with a different culture and, you know, the British character has done so much for democracy, for law and done so much throughout the world that if there is any fear that it might be swamped people are going to react and be rather hostile to those coming in.
So, if you want good race relations, you have got to allay peoples’ fears on numbers. Now, the key to this was not what Keith Speed said just a couple of weeks ago. It really was what Willie Whitelaw said at the Conservative Party Conference in Brighton, where he said we must hold out the clear prospect of an end to immigration because at the moment it is about between 45,000 and 50,000 people coming in a year.
Now, I was brought up in a small town, 25,000. That would be two new towns a year and that is quite a lot. So, we do have to hold out the prospect of an end to immigration except, of course, for compassionate cases.
But you are quite happy to ignore the facts in your pursuit of perceived political advantage
The same arguments equally apply to Ed Miliband and holding a referendum on our membership.
The oddest thing about Cameron is that he is a PR man who is completely lousy at PR.
Genuine question to Eurovision fans: are most countries' entries genuinely among their best talent, or do they consider it a joke like the UK does?
edit: the idea that people can't figure out the connection between immigration and the corrupt monster-state the political class want is nonsense
edit2: although as no-one would have believed him about a referendum anyway i dunno if it will hurt much
EU people cannot come to the UK to use our health services.
I'm actually a defender of the Star Wars prequels, dumb and poor in places though they were, but I think a lot of people weer worried what the next one will be like under Disney, but I think J J Abrams has proven with Star Trek he knows how to delicately handle diehard fans, attact new audiences, and make a kickass movie as well, so is great choice.
It even had fewer lens flares!
ETA; I see the guardian disagrees, saying it will underwhelm even the most committed of fans, but they're talking nonsense, as I'm no trekkie (never seen an original series episode all the way through for a start)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXsk0jroOog
I'm glad I'm not the only PBer to be impressed by the film.
In terms of British pensioners, I'd imagine the depressed Mediterranean economies would be pretty mad to reject the spending power of old people without having to pay pension costs.
Bringing forward a possible resolution to the Syrian Civil War is probably more important than grandstanding on the EU in the HoC.
Plus it allows to laugh at Johnny Foreigner,
Just remember some of the truly great British Bands have never entered Eurovision, bands like Queen, The Rolling Stones, Steps, Pink Floyd, Led Zep, New Order, The Sex Pistols etc.
But the Europeans entrants are the best that country can offer.
Are you drinking what tim's drinking?
very long post deleted
I would rather we avoid rehearsing these same arguments about the bedroom tax with an added argument over whether it caused a suicide. It's never that simple. Perhaps this is one of those times to take advantage of the anonymity of the internet - I'm never likely to meet any of you, and so it is easier to talk of these things.
I once had to go to A&E for stitches for self-inflicted knife wounds. Things had been pretty fraught with my daughter's mother for a while before then for a variety of reasons, but the thing that tipped me over the edge that evening was an argument about a tin of mackerel. When I opened the tin of mackerel my daughter's mother declared that it looked like a brain, but I disagreed. She could not accept that I would have a different opinion about the visual similarity between a brain and a tin of mackerel (in tomato sauce) and I was not willing to pretend to change my mind to humour her. So amidst all the other problems we were struggling to deal with we contrived to have an enormous row about a tin of mackerel.
It was the seeming futility of the situation I had found myself in, where even expressing a minor difference of opinion could provoke a massive disturbance, that temporarily convinced me that there was no hope, and no escape to be had except for that afforded by hurting myself as much as possible.
Too many of the arguments on pb.com remind me of that argument. Too many people hurling words at each other as though those words constitute proof, but not enough listening or compassion to understand the meaning, the thoughts and emotions that prompted those words.
There's no point in talking to someone who will not listen. That is why one does not feed the Trolls. It's not that the Trolls aren't hungry, but because they will just through that food back at you, and so you are wasting your time.
Once I have had a bath I would love to listen to any explanation you may have for why there was such a long gap between the innovation of democracy in the Ancient world and democracy in the modern world.
Dave is the nineteenth Prime Minister to have been educated at Eton.
Even so, there are less Etonians in the cabinet than there were under Margaret Thatcher,
What other international contests do Latvia, Finland and Azerbaijan win? With the prize being the chance to be the center of Europe for one night, highlighting their country?
And I find it heartening that the Balkans vote for each other, when just twenty years ago they were killing each other'
It is the only way of complying with the EU Working Hours Directive,
Because democracy needs stability and respect for the rule of law. The period between the Ancient and the modern world was characterised by a lack of this. Even times like the Tudor or the Stuart periods were really ruled by monarchical whimsy
Let me give you an example suppose we asked the voters how important a set of issues are on a scale of 1-10. We get the following results:
Issue A - 8
Issue B - 7
Issue C - 6
Issue D - 5
2 years later we ask them again and we get the following results:
Issue A - 8
Issue B - 9
Issue C - 5
Issue D - 10
In relative terms issue A has become less important but in absolute terms it is still just as important.
If all the other issues had stayed the same over the period in the chart we could indeed conclude the EU was less important. However, if you charted out the graphs for the economy and unemployment I expect you would see a reverse trend, starting low and then increasing. These issues are clearly more important than the EU at the moment but it doesn't mean people care about the EU less.
To put it another way, if your house is on fire, your immediate concern is not going to be the NHS.
I was expecting stories like this to take a while longer to start popping out. There'll be a lot more where this came from.
Wow - In Sun Tel Vince Cable calls Clegg's '3 million jobs threat if Britain leaves the EU' "extreme"and says we could thrive outside the EU
I don't like these importance surveys at all because they can mean all things to all men. We make an assumption of the results - that people would choose the NHS, for example, because they believe the 1,200 deaths at Mid-Staffs could have been stopped with an endless supply of extra money. But those who are concerned about the story and believe that the deaths would have been avoided with a fully privatised insurance system would have to tick the same box.
Defence would get the same tick from an unreconstructed CND weirdo as a send-a-gunboat type. Devolution would get the same tick from a separatist as a get-rid-of-the-spongers advocate.
The survey doesn't tell us *why* a subject is important to the person answering. As observers we fill in our own prejudices for that part. It gives a hint as to what we might argue about in the pub, but not what opinion we might have on it.
Which makes it pretty irrelevant unless you want to cherry-pick it for partisan reasons.
How would you vote in an EU referendum
1) If it were held today
Stay in the EU 30%
Leave 47%
DK 19%
Would not vote 4%
2) If new terms were negotiated to protect our interests
Stay in the EU 45%
Leave 32%
DK 20%
Would not vote 4%
The topline figures are CON 30%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%
In practice, most people still do not expect there to be a referendum in the near future. Only 6% expect a referendum this Parliament, only 31% in the next Parliament.
2 - 1 to stay in !!!
Is worth looking over when yougov publish their data in the morning.
DISGRUNTLED Tory MPs are demanding a national referendum to allow the public to vote on gay marriage.
A majority 53% of people think the Queen should remain in her role for life, compared to 33% who think she should abdicate. Asked specifically about what should happen if the Queen were to become too ill to carry out her duties, 48% think she should then abdicate, 43% think she should continue as Queen