No chance of any meaningful hike, house prices actually fell slightly last month fwiw.
I think they might do something specifically targetted at house prices in London, but, yes, you are right: the market as a whole is not really booming. Raising interest rates would be too blunt an instrument.
Richard
Carney regards house price inflation as a matter to be controlled by prudential regulation rather than by monetary intervention.
This is holding back sales volume in the market. House owners, particularly those that bought in the noughties bubble, are reluctant to sell. Even if most will now be able to avoid negative equity and realise their original investment in nominal terms, the public are too used to realising gains on house moves.
So an a rapid upward movement in house prices of, say, 10% is needed to boost liquidity in the housing market. Or, put simply, to persuade owners to stop renting and start selling.
Liquidity more than any other factor is likely to see price rises stabilise. The press pays far too much attention to the house building rate but new houses have historically only accounted for one in eight sales.
If prices rise a further 10% and if this results in greater volume of sales and price stabilisation (all likely but not certain outcomes), then the BoE may well need to intervene to stop house prices and lending escalating into an above trend bubble boom as we saw between 2002-2008 (the lending boom was 1998-2003).
The first line of BoE restraint will be in applying new lending criteria, LTV loan book risk and capital adequacy requirements on the banks. This should work independently of any interest rate rises deemed necessary or otherwise by the MPC.
My view is that the BoE and Treasury will not move to restrain house price rises until at least mid 2015 although lip-service may well be paid to its need for market signalling and political purposes. An exception may be made in London to curb house price inflation (and 'ghosttown' social problems) arising from cash purchases of prime central property by foreign investors but this will have to be done through taxation and not through domestic monetary policy.
The clamp down on mortgage lending will come in mid 2015 but by then the need for it may be less if increased housing sales volume has had its predicted impact in stabilising price rises.
According to the last census Doncaster is over 90% white. And of that population around 94% is white British. Maybe it's changed dramatically since then, but that doesn't explain the 2010 votes. So it could be that something different is at play.
Slightly above the national average in terms "white other" change from 2001-11 (2.1% against 1.8%)
I would guess Northern towns arent as transient as places like London and people are more affected by small changes in demographic, ie you arent likely to have a large proportion of people living in Doncaster who are British but not from Doncaster
I think that affects peoples attitude to immigration/change in nature of the place they live, could be wrong.
SO Not necessarily, polls show Scots would still vote No, even with a Tory lead, albeit more narrowly, and if UKIP wins its first Scottish MEP that would knock Salmond's argument of Scottish exceptionalism for six!
There are a lot of safe Labour seats where the party actually received more votes in 1992 than 1997, and even a few where they received more votes in 1987 — Liverpool and Glasgow, for example.
As I have said for the lower paid (and you are not obviously at £38K) this understates the increase in real terms as personal allowances are rising much faster than inflation and also faster than wages.
I agree that there is a group in the middle that have really suffered the consequences of this recession with increased taxes and falling real incomes. If you are renting as well that is a double penalty.
In the early years of the recession the last government continued to push through public sector wage increases to keep their supporters onside and wages in the private sector were basically frozen. In recent times, however, the private sector has been increasing wages faster than the public sector and this looks like continuing.
There is a certain irony to the well-paid moaning (not illegimiately, either) about how expensive the cost of living is - it suggests that life for those on lower pay and/or benefits must be even harder. Hence more income should be diverted by the government from the well-paid to the less well off, and the higher-paid should notice even more tax being snaffled from them.
I think DavidL's point is well made. But it's true that individual perceptions do not always match aggregate statistics. I remember a BBC journalist remarking that during surveys of the 90s recession, many respondents reported that they and their family were getting better off. There are always folk who get a new job or a promotion. On the other hand, even during economic vibrancy there are people stricken by chronic ill health or whose job is wiped out by the forces of creative destruction. And there are certain pockets of industries, professions, age brackets or asset-holders that will be affected in disproportionate ways - and due to the way social networks function, so will most of the people they know. Hence the atmospheres of unbridled optimism/ongoing grind/utter despair that various PB correspondents report.
Important information is that although UKIP are standing in Northern Ireland this year for the Euros elections, as far as betting is concerned, any votes they receive there won't count because the bookies are working on a GB basis.
Substitute this para for last para in original post:
The clamp down on mortgage lending may come in mid 2015 but only if by then increased housing sales volume has not had its predicted impact in stabilising price rises.
There is a certain irony to the well-paid moaning (not illegimiately, either) about how expensive the cost of living is - it suggests that life for those on lower pay and/or benefits must be even harder. Hence more income should be diverted by the government from the well-paid to the less well off, and the higher-paid should notice even more tax being snaffled from them.
If that is referring to me then yes compare to a lot of people I am well paid. The point I was trying to hammer home to the DavidL's and AveryLP's of this world and quite frankly to many PB'ers in general is that the huge majority of people are not in their position and frankly these growth figures and inflation figures are to them mere figments of unreality. It is not what we experience on the ground.
Most on here seem to come very much in the exceptionally higher pay bracket from what I have gathered over the years not the "merely edging around the 40%" bracket. I seem to remember not so long ago someone complaining that he was losing the child benefit because he was on 75k for example.
This experience I cite isn't just from the industry I happen to be in but from a wide variety of people who float between my sort of wage and the minimum wage, it includes for example someone in sales, an office manager, a staff photographer, a boiler repair engineer, and one of those drain rodding guys. All tell the same story, their wages aren't moving and havent really moved since 2000. The costs they have to pay have routinely beaten inflation however. The one thing they have in common is that they all rent and all are in their late thirties to early forties. At least two of them are gloomily facing the prospect of thinking of moving back to house sharing which is something you think you grow out of in your mid twenties.
These sorts of people make up a huge percentage of the country and frankly they are getting quite sick and tired of being told how rosy things are when they know damn well they are not.
Just seen the Sky News piece on Barking.. good Lord.
That place was once considered quite posh
My Aunt left there 10 years ago as she couldnt stand the place any longer, and it seems it has got worse.
She moved to Wolverhampton, which isnt exactly Leigh on Sea!
TBH I'm surprised to hear that Barking was ever though of as "posh".
"posh" was a poor choice of word!
My Dad tells me in the 60s people with a bit of money used to live in parts of Barking. Now it is a very poor area, I dont know anybody who would choose to live there
Here is a website that seems to be dedicated to that sentiment!
Just seen the Sky News piece on Barking.. good Lord.
That place was once considered quite posh
My Aunt left there 10 years ago as she couldnt stand the place any longer, and it seems it has got worse.
She moved to Wolverhampton, which isnt exactly Leigh on Sea!
TBH I'm surprised to hear that Barking was ever though of as "posh".
"posh" was a poor choice of word!
My Dad tells me in the 60s people with a bit of money used to live in parts of Barking. Now it is a very poor area, I dont know anybody who would choose to live there
The Tories got 35% of the vote there in 1987, turning it 'marginal'. What happened?
There is a certain irony to the well-paid moaning (not illegimiately, either) about how expensive the cost of living is - it suggests that life for those on lower pay and/or benefits must be even harder. Hence more income should be diverted by the government from the well-paid to the less well off, and the higher-paid should notice even more tax being snaffled from them.
If that is referring to me then yes compare to a lot of people I am well paid. The point I was trying to hammer home to the DavidL's and AveryLP's of this world and quite frankly to many PB'ers in general is that the huge majority of people are not in their position and frankly these growth figures and inflation figures are to them mere figments of unreality. It is not what we experience on the ground.
Most on here seem to come very much in the exceptionally higher pay bracket from what I have gathered over the years not the "merely edging around the 40%" bracket. I seem to remember not so long ago someone complaining that he was losing the child benefit because he was on 75k for example.
This experience I cite isn't just from the industry I happen to be in but from a wide variety of people who float between my sort of wage and the minimum wage, it includes for example someone in sales, an office manager, a staff photographer, a boiler repair engineer, and one of those drain rodding guys. All tell the same story, their wages aren't moving and havent really moved since 2000. The costs they have to pay have routinely beaten inflation however. The one thing they have in common is that they all rent and all are in their late thirties to early forties. At least two of them are gloomily facing the prospect of thinking of moving back to house sharing which is something you think you grow out of in your mid twenties.
These sorts of people make up a huge percentage of the country and frankly they are getting quite sick and tired of being told how rosy things are when they know damn well they are not.
PBers earn a wide range of incomes I think - One of the sharpest (imo), Quincel is looking for a job at the moment. Obviously there is SeanT and some others who are coining it but not all of us are !
Just seen the Sky News piece on Barking.. good Lord.
That place was once considered quite posh
My Aunt left there 10 years ago as she couldnt stand the place any longer, and it seems it has got worse.
She moved to Wolverhampton, which isnt exactly Leigh on Sea!
TBH I'm surprised to hear that Barking was ever though of as "posh".
"posh" was a poor choice of word!
My Dad tells me in the 60s people with a bit of money used to live in parts of Barking. Now it is a very poor area, I dont know anybody who would choose to live there
The Tories got 35% of the vote there in 1987, turning it 'marginal'. What happened?
Just seen the Sky News piece on Barking.. good Lord.
That place was once considered quite posh
My Aunt left there 10 years ago as she couldnt stand the place any longer, and it seems it has got worse.
She moved to Wolverhampton, which isnt exactly Leigh on Sea!
TBH I'm surprised to hear that Barking was ever though of as "posh".
Some bits of Barking are nicer than others - the Upney end isn't bad at all. The area between Upney Lane, Longbridge Road and Barking Abbey School is pretty plush, in fact. All things are relative, and Barking's nicer bits compare very favourably to East Ham, Canning Town or the southern end of Ilford.
There is a certain irony to the well-paid moaning (not illegimiately, either) about how expensive the cost of living is - it suggests that life for those on lower pay and/or benefits must be even harder. Hence more income should be diverted by the government from the well-paid to the less well off, and the higher-paid should notice even more tax being snaffled from them.
If that is referring to me then yes compare to a lot of people I am well paid. The point I was trying to hammer home to the DavidL's and AveryLP's of this world and quite frankly to many PB'ers in general is that the huge majority of people are not in their position and frankly these growth figures and inflation figures are to them mere figments of unreality. It is not what we experience on the ground.
...
These sorts of people make up a huge percentage of the country and frankly they are getting quite sick and tired of being told how rosy things are when they know damn well they are not.
Nowt personal, so hope no offence was taken.
Obviously not all people's income or expense trajectories align with national averages; for those people uncomforably sandwiched by higher-than-average rises in expenses while subject to lower-than-average rises in income, times are always going to be harsh. But in fairness to DavidL this is something he explcitly acknowledged. As DavidL says, a lot of people have really felt the benefit of the changes in income tax thresholds, proper old-fashioned money in the wallet stuff - on the other hand, there is a squeezed middle, albeit perhaps higher up the income scale than Ed Miliband intended to suggested. Are they a "huge" number? They're clearly substantial and politically significant.
But it goes too far to call aggregate statistics figments of unreality. They are figments of aggregate reality: a reality that is not shared in by all, but which is more representative of more people than the experiences of a single individual. If you want to know what most people are experiencing, the dreaded yellow boxes contain the answer.
Maybe we will be getting another cross-over soon..Sensible sounding Darling out, Wee Dougie and Gordo in, what could go wrong....
"Alistair Darling has effectively been dumped as head of the campaign to keep Scotland in the UK following crisis cross-party talks.
Labour’s shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander has been drafted in to reinvigorate the Better Together campaign run by the former Chancellor amid growing concerns about his ‘lacklustre’ performance.
Members of David Cameron’s inner circle are understood to have voiced concern about how Mr Darling is faring against the charismatic Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond.
One source claimed that following discussions over recent weeks between senior Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat figures, it was secretly agreed that while there would be no formal announcement of a change, Mr Alexander should take charge.
Former prime minister Gordon Brown, who fell out so badly with Mr Darling when he ran the Treasury that the two are not thought to be on speaking terms, is now expected to take a more prominent role in the run-up to the September 18 independence referendum."
That is a big assumption to make before these online UKIP keyboard voters have actually turned up or posted their voting intentions.. A couple of things struck me tonight, the first being just how lucky Cameron continues to be while Ed Miliband does not get the breaks where it really matters. The Con/Libdem Coalition formed to tackle the economic woes inherited from the last Labour Government, the Indy Referendum forced on the SNP and the voters in Scotland because Labour was so crap the Tories got back in.
And now the rise of UKIP down South over the issue of immigration because they are sweeping up disillusioned right wing Tories, working class Labour voters and the BNP/EDL voters all in the same net while Cameron is promising, and is still the only politician able to deliver an In/Out EU Referendum. If Carlsberg were running the Conservative detox strategy across the UK while they are running an austerity policy of clearing up after labour and all that left right angst about immigration, they could not do better. Fair dues to the SNP, they finally got their Indy Referendum thrust on them due to the 2011 Holyrood elections, and they are not like UKIP now trying to hide behind a defence of Cameron not supporting their world view of Independence because he has delivered on the Referendum via Westminster....UKIP are totally frit, and their arguments are weakened by their current avoidance of any view that doesn't back their nationalist traits.
Comments
Carney regards house price inflation as a matter to be controlled by prudential regulation rather than by monetary intervention.
House prices in the UK are still 10% or more below the UK's fifty year trend of a 2.7% annual growth in values in real terms. See:
http://s10.postimg.org/fge2zgqpl/Nationwide_Real_House_Prices.jpg
This is holding back sales volume in the market. House owners, particularly those that bought in the noughties bubble, are reluctant to sell. Even if most will now be able to avoid negative equity and realise their original investment in nominal terms, the public are too used to realising gains on house moves.
So an a rapid upward movement in house prices of, say, 10% is needed to boost liquidity in the housing market. Or, put simply, to persuade owners to stop renting and start selling.
Liquidity more than any other factor is likely to see price rises stabilise. The press pays far too much attention to the house building rate but new houses have historically only accounted for one in eight sales.
If prices rise a further 10% and if this results in greater volume of sales and price stabilisation (all likely but not certain outcomes), then the BoE may well need to intervene to stop house prices and lending escalating into an above trend bubble boom as we saw between 2002-2008 (the lending boom was 1998-2003).
The first line of BoE restraint will be in applying new lending criteria, LTV loan book risk and capital adequacy requirements on the banks. This should work independently of any interest rate rises deemed necessary or otherwise by the MPC.
My view is that the BoE and Treasury will not move to restrain house price rises until at least mid 2015 although lip-service may well be paid to its need for market signalling and political purposes. An exception may be made in London to curb house price inflation (and 'ghosttown' social problems) arising from cash purchases of prime central property by foreign investors but this will have to be done through taxation and not through domestic monetary policy.
The clamp down on mortgage lending will come in mid 2015 but by then the need for it may be less if increased housing sales volume has had its predicted impact in stabilising price rises.
I would guess Northern towns arent as transient as places like London and people are more affected by small changes in demographic, ie you arent likely to have a large proportion of people living in Doncaster who are British but not from Doncaster
I think that affects peoples attitude to immigration/change in nature of the place they live, could be wrong.
http://www.doncastertogether.org.uk/Images/Ethnicity and National Identity in England and Wales - Final_tcm33-102184.pdf
1983: 26,980
1987: 34,661
1992: 34,214
1997: 31,516
2001: 22,143
2005: 20,322
2010: 24,709
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_Walton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Glasgow Rutherglen, Lab votes:
1983: 21,510
1987: 24,790
1992: 21,962
1997: 20,430
2001: 16,760
I think DavidL's point is well made. But it's true that individual perceptions do not always match aggregate statistics. I remember a BBC journalist remarking that during surveys of the 90s recession, many respondents reported that they and their family were getting better off. There are always folk who get a new job or a promotion. On the other hand, even during economic vibrancy there are people stricken by chronic ill health or whose job is wiped out by the forces of creative destruction. And there are certain pockets of industries, professions, age brackets or asset-holders that will be affected in disproportionate ways - and due to the way social networks function, so will most of the people they know. Hence the atmospheres of unbridled optimism/ongoing grind/utter despair that various PB correspondents report.
House prices
Substitute this para for last para in original post:
The clamp down on mortgage lending may come in mid 2015 but only if by then increased housing sales volume has not had its predicted impact in stabilising price rises.
That place was once considered quite posh
My Aunt left there 10 years ago as she couldnt stand the place any longer, and it seems it has got worse.
She moved to Wolverhampton, which isnt exactly Leigh on Sea!
Most on here seem to come very much in the exceptionally higher pay bracket from what I have gathered over the years not the "merely edging around the 40%" bracket. I seem to remember not so long ago someone complaining that he was losing the child benefit because he was on 75k for example.
This experience I cite isn't just from the industry I happen to be in but from a wide variety of people who float between my sort of wage and the minimum wage, it includes for example someone in sales, an office manager, a staff photographer, a boiler repair engineer, and one of those drain rodding guys. All tell the same story, their wages aren't moving and havent really moved since 2000. The costs they have to pay have routinely beaten inflation however. The one thing they have in common is that they all rent and all are in their late thirties to early forties. At least two of them are gloomily facing the prospect of thinking of moving back to house sharing which is something you think you grow out of in your mid twenties.
These sorts of people make up a huge percentage of the country and frankly they are getting quite sick and tired of being told how rosy things are when they know damn well they are not.
My Dad tells me in the 60s people with a bit of money used to live in parts of Barking. Now it is a very poor area, I dont know anybody who would choose to live there
Here is a website that seems to be dedicated to that sentiment!
http://www.barkingdagenhamlocalhistory.net/page7.html
Obviously not all people's income or expense trajectories align with national averages; for those people uncomforably sandwiched by higher-than-average rises in expenses while subject to lower-than-average rises in income, times are always going to be harsh. But in fairness to DavidL this is something he explcitly acknowledged. As DavidL says, a lot of people have really felt the benefit of the changes in income tax thresholds, proper old-fashioned money in the wallet stuff - on the other hand, there is a squeezed middle, albeit perhaps higher up the income scale than Ed Miliband intended to suggested. Are they a "huge" number? They're clearly substantial and politically significant.
But it goes too far to call aggregate statistics figments of unreality. They are figments of aggregate reality: a reality that is not shared in by all, but which is more representative of more people than the experiences of a single individual. If you want to know what most people are experiencing, the dreaded yellow boxes contain the answer.
"Alistair Darling has effectively been dumped as head of the campaign to keep Scotland in the UK following crisis cross-party talks.
Labour’s shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander has been drafted in to reinvigorate the Better Together campaign run by the former Chancellor amid growing concerns about his ‘lacklustre’ performance.
Members of David Cameron’s inner circle are understood to have voiced concern about how Mr Darling is faring against the charismatic Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond.
One source claimed that following discussions over recent weeks between senior Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat figures, it was secretly agreed that while there would be no formal announcement of a change, Mr Alexander should take charge.
Former prime minister Gordon Brown, who fell out so badly with Mr Darling when he ran the Treasury that the two are not thought to be on speaking terms, is now expected to take a more prominent role in the run-up to the September 18 independence referendum."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2626699/Darling-sidelined-save-UK-lobby-Brown-bigger-role-against-SNP.html
A couple of things struck me tonight, the first being just how lucky Cameron continues to be while Ed Miliband does not get the breaks where it really matters. The Con/Libdem Coalition formed to tackle the economic woes inherited from the last Labour Government, the Indy Referendum forced on the SNP and the voters in Scotland because Labour was so crap the Tories got back in.
And now the rise of UKIP down South over the issue of immigration because they are sweeping up disillusioned right wing Tories, working class Labour voters and the BNP/EDL voters all in the same net while Cameron is promising, and is still the only politician able to deliver an In/Out EU Referendum. If Carlsberg were running the Conservative detox strategy across the UK while they are running an austerity policy of clearing up after labour and all that left right angst about immigration, they could not do better. Fair dues to the SNP, they finally got their Indy Referendum thrust on them due to the 2011 Holyrood elections, and they are not like UKIP now trying to hide behind a defence of Cameron not supporting their world view of Independence because he has delivered on the Referendum via Westminster....UKIP are totally frit, and their arguments are weakened by their current avoidance of any view that doesn't back their nationalist traits.