Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories take the lead in ICM Euros poll and my 56-1 bet

24

Comments

  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    I did think that the Tories would improve as the weeks go on. You see, Labour have no policy and as many people have said, their support is soft. On the doorstep many reds are wavering so may not vote. Don't forget they got 16% last Euro. 24% would be 50% up and that is the best they will do. UKIP won't top 30. Tories might do it. Well done, Mike.
    On the other hand Lab did really well in teh London locals last time. Certainly in Merton they are not gaining votes. of course, depends if the blues gain a few to win...who knows.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Danny565 said:

    Sadly, Labour are starting to look more and more like William Hague's Conservatives in the lead-up to the 2001 election. I still to this day don't believe they lost because people thought they were too "right-wing", it was because they were an incoherent mess who never seemed to have a clear idea of what they would want to do in government (apart from "not being Labour") and constantly flip-flopped. They would make contradictory statements like they would maintain Labour spending plans while still attacking them for overspending (the same as Labour today attacking the cuts while promising to run a surplus and make heavy cuts themselves). "Credibility" in the voters' eyes does not mean just doing whatever big businesses or "the markets" want like the Westminster bubble think, but it does mean being on top of your s**t and atleast having a clear idea of what you're about. If you're constantly changing your mind or don't articulate clearly what you want to do, it just doesn't make you look like a serious party.

    I wouldn't be surprised if last week's advert was the final straw, because it would've confirmed in many people's minds that Labour have no plans of their own and nothing to say about themselves so they have to resort to shrill, gratuitous attacks on their opponents.

    A very perceptive post.

    In truth, the Conservatives aren't polling better than in 2000-05. But, Labour are polling far worse.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Nigel, neither will I. But then, lots of things people do baffle me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited May 2014

    Mr. Nigel, indeed, but there are areas (such as this constituency: Morley & Outwood) where lots of people still vote Labour just because they always have done and their parents and grandparents did.

    I'll never understand that but I know it still happens. This is not the same Labour Party my parents voted for or for that matter I voted for in the seventies. UKIP are growing because people are slowly realising that but I wish they would do it quicker!
    Hear hear. Actually I wouldn't care which way people decided to vote once they had developed an open mind rather than tribal loyalty based on where they perceived they should be, but anything that shakes up the system so that parties cannot take huge numbers of seats for granted would be nice. One day, maybe, but I doubt it.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    George Eaton @georgeeaton

    Cometh the hour, cometh the man. Axelrod flying to London tomorrow for two days of meetings.

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189


    George Eaton @georgeeaton

    Cometh the hour, cometh the man. Axelrod flying to London tomorrow for two days of meetings.

    He may feel as if he's parachuted onto the Titanic after it struck the iceberg.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sadly it seems Rod Crosby is needed in Eurovision.

    The British voted the Polish top in the telephone poll, but the 5 British Jurors had 50% of the weighting and voted the Poles out of our points.

    The evidence is here: http://www.eurovision.tv/page/results?event=1893&voter=GB

    Is it a coincidence that 3/5 of the Jurors were female, and the two males in the acting profession?

    Perhaps it was Eurovision that caused a surge of kipperism, though these Poles are welcome to do my laundry!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJ920cN2HmA
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    UKIP do pick 'em...


    Thomas Evans‏@ThomasEvansUKIP·21 mins
    @DPJHodges Some might think you 'gave up' your links to the Labour party to go Black Ops on there political competition via a newspaper...

    Dan Hodges‏@DPJHodges·11 mins
    @ThomasEvansUKIP They might. If they were bonkers...

    Thomas Evans‏@ThomasEvansUKIP·8 mins
    @DPJHodges Dan you ooze Labour dishonesty.
    Either you taught them some dirty tricks (to much credit) or you support them through the paper.

    Dan Hodges‏@DPJHodges·7 mins
    .@ThomasEvansUKIP ...you're right Thomas. My loyalty to the Labour party is legend...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    Mr. Nigel, indeed, but there are areas (such as this constituency: Morley & Outwood) where lots of people still vote Labour just because they always have done and their parents and grandparents did.

    It's a declining trend though, as it is for all parties. Perhaps the difference is that in Labour areas, the tendency has been to stop voting altogether rather than to experiment with other parties (and certainly no with the principal opposition, the Tories).

    However, with the equal decline of location-based large employers - shipyards, mines, steelworks - that sort of community-based social and political culture is nowhere near as strong as it once was. The cause is two-way too: it's not just that those communities have less interest in Labour; Labour has less interest in them too, especially as candidates and representatives.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited May 2014


    George Eaton @georgeeaton

    Cometh the hour, cometh the man. Axelrod flying to London tomorrow for two days of meetings.

    The axeman cometh.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Good points, Mr. Herdson. There's also the differential impact of immigration, in geographical and class terms, which often sees the WWC concerned about competition and middle class metropolitan persons delighted at the lower costs of carpentry, plumbing etc.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Foxinsox - that youtube would have been better at 9,10 or 11 0 clock. Unlike certain people, I'll mention no names libdemvoice, I actually buy a paper sometimes.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    The ghastly thing about the WWC, as your typical Labour apparatchik sees it, is that they smoke roll-ups and smell of turps.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    kle4 said:

    Neil said:

    dodrade said:

    I'd take any poll with the Greens at 10% with a large pinch of salt.

    Why? 8.1% last time, 10% is hardly outlandish.


    True enough . Besides, not a lot of people vote for the Greens outside of the Euros, but it seems a harmless choice for many if they don't like most of the other options.
    I think sometimes tribal supporters of the main parties underestimate how much swing voters might be prepared to vote differently in different elections. I am certainly much more likely to vote LD in a local election than a national one, for example. And don't forget the Greens got 15% in the 1989 Euros.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "it does mean being on top of your s**t and atleast having a clear idea of what you're about. If you're constantly changing your mind or don't articulate clearly what you want to do, it just doesn't make you look like a serious party."

    Thats a fair summary of the Cameron clique there, Mr 565. Oh, you were talking about Labour.

    James Kirkup the the Telegraph has it about right, I think, - the fight between two losers:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100271211/right-now-the-next-general-election-looks-like-a-fight-between-two-losers/
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Oh FFS Foxinsox - I'm drunk now. Are you implying Poles aren't sexy and are only good to do your laundry?

    I - As A Drunkard, Of the One True Faith - find most sexy people sexy. Apart from blacks. But I'm mixed race (like Obama and Woods) and am allowed to say this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    kle4 said:

    Neil said:

    dodrade said:

    I'd take any poll with the Greens at 10% with a large pinch of salt.

    Why? 8.1% last time, 10% is hardly outlandish.


    True enough . Besides, not a lot of people vote for the Greens outside of the Euros, but it seems a harmless choice for many if they don't like most of the other options.
    I think sometimes tribal supporters of the main parties underestimate how much swing voters might be prepared to vote differently in different elections.
    Sometimes? Tribal supporters are delusional, though enough are that it only takes a few more swinging either way to win it for either side.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Oops - someone got a warning from big brother because of that. Please don't ban me team ogh.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    My apologies JB, not long in from work, and only just caught up with the news.

    Glad I got on the Ladbrokes Euros Tricast UKIP/Con/Lab at 16/1 at the weekend, that Labour vote does seem soft

    Might pay for a few beers. Now 7/1
    JBriskin said:

    Foxinsox - that youtube would have been better at 9,10 or 11 0 clock. Unlike certain people, I'll mention no names libdemvoice, I actually buy a paper sometimes.

  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Oops - I'm not sure I can pull this one back
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Pretty please don't ban me team - you still let Crosby post
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Fair plays Fox - I used to work

    PS - Please don't ban me Team Ogh
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    There are still jurors for Eurovision? I thought they were ditched years ago.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited May 2014
    AveryLP said:

    @Alanbrooke

    Three questions:

    1. What percentage of the the GDP growth rate over the past year is accounted for by "explicitly covered by taxpayer guarantees".

    Let me know if you are having difficulties with the numbers.



    1. 78%


    Osborne inaction.

    Dear Mr. Brooke

    Thank you for your application to read PPE as a mature student at St. George's College, Oxford.

    We have carefully reviewed the papers you have submitted on all three core subjects.

    We are pleased to confirm that we found your Politics and Philosophy essays both 'original and interesting'.

    Regrettably, we found the workings in your economics paper to be somewhat too 'original'. May we recommend you check the batteries in your iPad before rerunning the calculations.

    Another option may be to check your iPad for a computer virus infection. Local branches of PC World should be able to assist with the latter.

    Once you have prepared a new submission, please send us your revised paper in the enclosed SAE.

    We are confident that once these externalities have been addressed, you will be make a fine and loyal St. Georgian. I can also heartily recommend our collection of vintage ports which are served nightly in the college buttery.

    Yours sincerely,

    Dean for Admissions
    St. George's College
    Oxford

    Dear Dean ( or is that Wayne ?)

    Having studied the output of your warped organ I have come to the conclusion numeracy, common sense and actual work have little to do with your concept of Economics.

    Your recent output of David Willetts, Ed Balls and Nick Palmer have done little to enrich this great nation though much to fatten your progeny with ill gotten gains.

    I would therefore suggest that rather than apply as a student I take over as head of faculty and arrange for your students to do something useful like work on the local BMW production lines. This will not only encourage them to get out of bed before midday but to acquire a first hand experience of economics where they realise debt isn't wealth, work has to pay and ordinary people don't have trust funds.

    I realise this may come as a shock to both the faculty and the students but I cannot help but think this will be cathartic for both the University and the senior echelons of the civil service.
    Who knows you may even come to appreciate work for it's own benefits.

    Failing that of course you can still just spout out the sma e old failed bollocks you've done for the last 50 years and continue to screw things up.

    Your choice bartender

    Mr Brooke xxx



  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    LOL! I was wondering what you'd do.

    On the other hand, you might only have a few minutes to wait for Yougov ...
  • SHOCK HORROR!!

    Ladbrokes have the Tories at odds-on to win the most votes at the next GE

    Wow ...... how fast things have changed over just a few weeks.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    AndyJS said:

    There are still jurors for Eurovision? I thought they were ditched years ago.

    They were ditched as there were fears of oolitical bias, they were brought back as it was feared the phone vote was politically biased.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    The ghastly thing about the WWC, as your typical Labour apparatchik sees it, is that they smoke roll-ups and smell of turps.

    That @Hugh bloke that used to post on here literally refused to believe that I had mates who were electricians, and used to take the piss out of me for "pretending" that I did and that they were going to vote UKIP

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Neil said:
    Did I make a crossover prediction Neil?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · now

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one point: CON 35%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one point: CON 35%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Jim, can't have the filthy proletariat deciding things, can we?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one point: CON 35%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Apparently and I have this on good authority that some PBer has voiced the opinion that :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014
    So the average of the four polls published today is a Tory lead.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Scott_P said:

    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one point: CON 35%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%

    Come back Basil.....all is forgiven!!!!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    SHOCK HORROR!!

    Ladbrokes have the Tories at odds-on to win the most votes at the next GE

    Wow ...... how fast things have changed over just a few weeks.

    From one day's polls? Crikey. That must have been a lot of money.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics · 1 min
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one point: CON 35%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Neil said:
    Did I make a crossover prediction Neil?
    Yes you did, you said there wouldn't be a crossover before the GE.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    As an aside does anyone know which firm did Ashcroft's polling?

    Reason for asking is I think someone said it was ICM.

    *If* there is a problem with their methodology, is it perhaps just confirmation of this fault; i.e. the two polls are not necessarily truly independent and hence less good confirmation?

    Still YouGov will be soon...
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    We'll take that YouGov!

    Leave it for another day...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics · 1 min
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one point: CON 35%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%

    Crossback!

    Lab nailed on.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    People who bet on crossover (and Basil, I thought?) need a YouGov Tory crossover, not just any of N different polls, don't they? Tantalising.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Neil said:
    Did I make a crossover prediction Neil?
    Yes you did, you said there wouldn't be a crossover before the GE.
    Can't remember and if I did, considering Averys first prediction was for the end of January 2013, how was his closer?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Looking over turnout figures for the last Euros (from 91% in - shocker - Belgium, to 19% in Slovakia), I was surprised the UK figure was as high as 34% to be honest. With UKIP fired up, could it actually increase?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    People who bet on crossover (and Basil, I thought?) need a YouGov Tory crossover, not just any of N different polls, don't they? Tantalising.

    We need either a Tory lead or parity with YouGov before the end of June.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:
    Did I make a crossover prediction Neil?
    Yes, when I pushed you on when you expected crossover you said none before the GE. All that time ridiculing Avery and he was closer than you in the end!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    I can't help thinking the following timely story about a spineless creature found washed up has some relevance today:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27374119

    Will Labour commit Edicide?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Now that we've got YouGov - Is this when things are supposed to get exciting??
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Neil said:
    Did I make a crossover prediction Neil?
    Yes you did, you said there wouldn't be a crossover before the GE.
    Can't remember and if I did, considering Averys first prediction was for the end of January 2013, how was his closer?
    Avery went to Oxford. It's not part of the space time continuum, yesterday is tomorrow.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Oh dear, Basil is not a happy squirrel, he puts the old crossover goalposts down for a few hours, and then he back doing the back breaking work again.

    http://i.imgur.com/11ZHp9I.jpg
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    That MD, is the most perceptive summary of the parties that I have seen in a long time.

    Dare I ask what the kippers are?

    Kedgeree
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Well at least Yougov is still sort of delivering for Labour.

    Bad news for those whose bets need at least equality with that particular pollster though.

    I have tried to open online accounts with both Ladbrokes and Wm Hill tonight to put a bet on the tories getting most votes in the euros. Both of their websites think I am in the US and won't let me register. I blame AOL but it is particularly frustrating when I still cannot see the clips of the Daily Show restricted in the UK.

    For me, any bet on the tories getting the most votes now in the Euros over 10-1 is an absolute steal. The turnout will be abysmal, especially if Labour is hacked off and tories tend to vote no matter how irrelevant the question. It really does not get much more irrelevant than the European Parliament so I think they have always been underrated. As usual OGH was well ahead of the curve.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :

    11 hours
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380



    Avery went to Oxford. It's not part of the space time continuum, yesterday is tomorrow.

    Good info Alanbrooke - Where did you go?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Neil said:

    Neil said:
    Did I make a crossover prediction Neil?
    Yes, when I pushed you on when you expected crossover you said none before the GE. All that time ridiculing Avery and he was closer than you in the end!
    So his prediction for crossover in January 2013 is nearer than my prediction for nothing before the election......did you go to Oxford also?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Perusing the voting records by country:

    http://www.eurovision.tv/page/results?event=1893&voter=GB

    It is not just the UK jury that overruled the phone vote, it seems to have happened most places.

    Indeed it does not look as if the Bearded Austrian would have won on the phone vote.

    Concita Wurst is indeed the Van Rumpoy of Eurovision, and I am going all red faced kipper at this display of oligarcical rule at the heart of europe.

    Lets hope that Dave can renegotiate our terms....
    AndyJS said:

    There are still jurors for Eurovision? I thought they were ditched years ago.

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    That's another good poll for the Tories.

    Labour with some real work to do.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    For the purposes of comparison.

    With YouGov in May 2009, Dave and the Tories had a 17% lead with YouGov
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Neil said:
    Much further.

    I was reported by Bobafrett as claiming 24th December but it has arrived just over seven months early!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    JBriskin said:



    Avery went to Oxford. It's not part of the space time continuum, yesterday is tomorrow.

    Good info Alanbrooke - Where did you go?
    Manchester, and I taught my whippets Italian.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited May 2014
    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:
    Much further.

    I was reported by Bobafrett as claiming 24th December but it has arrived just over seven months early!
    Avery you seem to have forgotten your predicted crossover dates of January 2013, April 2013, June 2013, October 2013, December 2013......ssssshhhh no one else noticed them.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Thanks Alan - I'm just nosey and jealous of those with degrees because I don't have one.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Front page of tomorrow's Guardian is about the poll

    Neil Henderson ‏@hendopolis 1m

    GUARDIAN: Tories on top as Labour poll rating sinks to a four year low #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/s1yYp0hFJh

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/465960798595334144
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:
    Much further.

    I was reported by Bobafrett as claiming 24th December but it has arrived just over seven months early!
    Avery, you could put that in a yellow box and still no-one would believe you. Osbornomics.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    So the average of the four polls published today is a Tory lead.

    0.5% (unweighted)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Charles said:

    As an aside does anyone know which firm did Ashcroft's polling?

    Reason for asking is I think someone said it was ICM.

    *If* there is a problem with their methodology, is it perhaps just confirmation of this fault; i.e. the two polls are not necessarily truly independent and hence less good confirmation?

    Still YouGov will be soon...

    I think Mr Senior said the table layout was similar.

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    BobaFett said:

    That's another good poll for the Tories.

    Labour with some real work to do.

    The GE's gone Bob. From now on it's just damage limitation.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, has seen his advantage slip from a 16 per cent poll lead to the low single figures in recent months as the economy continues to recover.

    The poll found that Mr Cameron was slightly more popular among women than men.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10826277/Tories-gain-their-first-poll-lead-for-two-years.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Charles said:

    As an aside does anyone know which firm did Ashcroft's polling?

    Reason for asking is I think someone said it was ICM.

    *If* there is a problem with their methodology, is it perhaps just confirmation of this fault; i.e. the two polls are not necessarily truly independent and hence less good confirmation?

    Still YouGov will be soon...

    I think Mr Senior said the table layout was similar.

    Twas Populus
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,709

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics · 1 min
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one point: CON 35%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%

    This slump in Labour support is starting to look terminal. It's the rent stuff that's done it. Too many people dabble in property leasing these days. Miliband has scared them all rigid. This could be difficult for Labour to claw back, as the proposals are so drastic for landlords that they won't be readily forgotten. A messy U-turn may be the only way out.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    JBriskin said:

    Thanks Alan - I'm just nosey and jealous of those with degrees because I don't have one.

    Nothing wrong with that, some of the best people I've ever worked with weren't graduates. A degree just means you can parrot someone else's thoughts and don't have to think for yourself.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    GAME ON

    ...those of you who remember what I wrote about the Populus figs a couple of weeks back, and given the methodology... that ICM would likely show a Tory lead ....
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    @Alanbrooke

    Dear Dean ( or is that Wayne ?)

    Having studied the output of your warped organ I have come to the conclusion numeracy, common sense and actual work have little to do with your concept of Economics.

    Your recent output of David Willetts, Ed Balls and Nick Palmer have done little to enrich this great nation though much to fatten your progeny with ill gotten gains.

    I would therefore suggest that rather than apply as a student I take over as head of faculty and arrange for your students to do something useful like work on the local BMW production lines. This will not only encourage them to get out of bed before midday but to acquire a first hand experience of economics where they realise debt isn't wealth, work has to pay and ordinary people don't have trust funds.

    I realise this may come as a shock to both the faculty and the students but I cannot help but think this will be cathartic for both the University and the senior echelons of the civil service.
    Who knows you may even come to appreciate work for it's own benefits.

    Failing that of course you can still just spout out the sma e old failed bollocks you've done for the last 50 years and continue to screw things up.

    Your choice bartender

    Mr Brooke xxx


    Dear Mr. Brooke

    I have referred your application for Head of the Economics Faculty to the Oxford Brooke University.

    Yours sincerely

    Dean for Admissions
    St. George's College
    Oxford

    P.S. Dean is my office. Bardolf is my Christian name.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Surely the two ICMs contradict one another?

    Their Westminster VI has support moving Lab>UKIP, but their EU Parliament VI has support moving Lab>Con.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The police didnt ask the Green party acticist to take down his UKIP tweet.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/12/police-visited-green-party-campaigner-over-impersonation-fears

    Another one for the look before you leap UKIP haters

    The PEB didnt have the wrong date on it
    The minibus was lawfully parked in a disabled space
    etc etc
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    In the final analysis the only crossover that will count will be a Labour one from May 2010 and that isn't going to happen.

    Labour have been dead in the water since UNITE and friends tipped Ed Miliband over the threshold to become leader. Everything else has been froth and nonsense, albeit entertaining froth and nonsense.

    A more interesting question will be whether Cameron decides to enjoy a full second term as Prime Minister or perhaps less likely make way for a successor in the autumn of 2018.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    Still, as Mr Smithson mentioned yesterday, most of the EU Parliament postal votes have already been cast.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014

    (I bet more than I want to lose on UKIP beating the Tories. I thought it was a safe bet!)

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:
    Much further.

    I was reported by Bobafrett as claiming 24th December but it has arrived just over seven months early!
    Avery you seem to have forgotten your predicted crossover dates of January 2013, April 2013, June 2013, October 2013, December 2013......ssssshhhh no one else noticed them.
    This is a joke post, right?

    Stick to posting furry animals, 'pouter.

    I still have a reputation to protect.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    PS

    I do hope tim is reading still reading PB.. all that work, years of ( *%*%*%*%*%*)(MODERATED) all beginning to come to naught . I still cannot understand why OGH thought Ed was the better leader of the Labour Party. I doubt David could have been any worse... but then there was that trip to India and Pakistan where Mandeleson had to sort it out) There ought to be a thread in that somewhere.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    AveryLP said:

    @Alanbrooke

    Dear Dean ( or is that Wayne ?)

    Having studied the output of your warped organ I have come to the conclusion numeracy, common sense and actual work have little to do with your concept of Economics.

    Your recent output of David Willetts, Ed Balls and Nick Palmer have done little to enrich this great nation though much to fatten your progeny with ill gotten gains.

    I would therefore suggest that rather than apply as a student I take over as head of faculty and arrange for your students to do something useful like work on the local BMW production lines. This will not only encourage them to get out of bed before midday but to acquire a first hand experience of economics where they realise debt isn't wealth, work has to pay and ordinary people don't have trust funds.

    I realise this may come as a shock to both the faculty and the students but I cannot help but think this will be cathartic for both the University and the senior echelons of the civil service.
    Who knows you may even come to appreciate work for it's own benefits.

    Failing that of course you can still just spout out the sma e old failed bollocks you've done for the last 50 years and continue to screw things up.

    Your choice bartender

    Mr Brooke xxx


    Dear Mr. Brooke

    I have referred your application for Head of the Economics Faculty to the Oxford Brooke University.

    Yours sincerely

    Dean for Admissions
    St. George's College
    Oxford

    P.S. Dean is my office. Bardolf is my Christian name.

    My apologies Mr Pole, I'd interpreted "Dean for Admissions" as NUS sloganeering, like "Lesbians for Miliband".
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:
    Much further.

    I was reported by Bobafrett as claiming 24th December but it has arrived just over seven months early!
    Avery you seem to have forgotten your predicted crossover dates of January 2013, April 2013, June 2013, October 2013, December 2013......ssssshhhh no one else noticed them.
    So we're agreed - most of Avery's crossover predictions were more accurate than yours!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft · 37 secs
    Average of the 3 General Election polls today CON 34% LAB 33% LDEM 10% UKIP 15%

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:
    Much further.

    I was reported by Bobafrett as claiming 24th December but it has arrived just over seven months early!
    Avery you seem to have forgotten your predicted crossover dates of January 2013, April 2013, June 2013, October 2013, December 2013......ssssshhhh no one else noticed them.
    This is a joke post, right?

    Stick to posting furry animals, 'pouter.

    I still have a reputation to protect.

    Err, quite a funny post. You kept predicting a crossover from the start of last year and kept moving the date when you failed. Hence the moving polling crossover goalposts, Basil and all. Don't worry you predictions are safe with me.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014

    Still, as Mr Smithson mentioned yesterday, most of the EU Parliament postal votes have already been cast.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014

    (I bet more than I want to lose on UKIP beating the Tories. I thought it was a safe bet!)

    Back Cons to win outright at 25/1 as a hedge?

    EDIT... best price now 22/1.. 20/1 also available
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Squareroot - Tim had passion. Hard to fake that.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited May 2014
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:
    Much further.

    I was reported by Bobafrett as claiming 24th December but it has arrived just over seven months early!
    Avery you seem to have forgotten your predicted crossover dates of January 2013, April 2013, June 2013, October 2013, December 2013......ssssshhhh no one else noticed them.
    So we're agreed - most of Avery's crossover predictions were more accurate than yours!
    You originally stated "You were further away with your crossover prediction than Avery was!". It depends which Avery one you want to take. Unlike Avery, my prediction didn't move every few months. In fact he gave up after so many failures when December 2013 went crashing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    It is not until Wednesday that we will find out that unemployment has fallen by another 100K and that real wages are now growing across the economy. No doubt Yougov will have Labour up to a fairly safe lead by then.

    O/T Wigan have really blown this, they should have been 2 or 3 up in the first half hour. Another success for Harry though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    We should get the Ipsos-Mori poll this week as well.

    Three phone polls in three days, is like old times.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:
    Much further.

    I was reported by Bobafrett as claiming 24th December but it has arrived just over seven months early!
    Avery you seem to have forgotten your predicted crossover dates of January 2013, April 2013, June 2013, October 2013, December 2013......ssssshhhh no one else noticed them.
    So we're agreed - most of Avery's crossover predictions were more accurate than yours!
    You originally stated "You were further away with your crossover prediction than Avery was!". It depends which Avery one you want to take. Unlike Avery, my prediction didn't move every few months.
    Mr Compouter go easy on Avery he thinks Osborne can count. Numeracy isn't his strong point.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    QPR beat Wigan 2:1 AET to reach the Championship play-off final against Derby on May 24th.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2014
    isam said:

    Still, as Mr Smithson mentioned yesterday, most of the EU Parliament postal votes have already been cast.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014

    (I bet more than I want to lose on UKIP beating the Tories. I thought it was a safe bet!)

    Back Cons to win outright at 25/1 as a hedge?

    EDIT... best price now 22/1.. 20/1 also available
    I think you're all panicking. UKIP will beat the Tories for the Euros. The trend is all UKIP; look at the ICM change from April.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft · 37 secs
    Average of the 3 General Election polls today CON 34% LAB 33% LDEM 10% UKIP 15%

    Which means CON + UKIP > 50% in England.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    JBriskin said:

    Squareroot - Tim had passion. Hard to fake that.

    Yes... that passion about Dave and fresh fish .. and Waitrose.,..gripping stuff.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Where's Tim? I'd like to hear his thoughts on today's polls.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    MikeK said:

    isam said:

    Still, as Mr Smithson mentioned yesterday, most of the EU Parliament postal votes have already been cast.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014

    (I bet more than I want to lose on UKIP beating the Tories. I thought it was a safe bet!)

    Back Cons to win outright at 25/1 as a hedge?

    EDIT... best price now 22/1.. 20/1 also available
    I think you're all panicking. UKIP will beat the Tories for the Euros.
    It does seem hard to believe the Tories' waffling on Europe has suddenly become really appealing.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:
    Much further.

    I was reported by Bobafrett as claiming 24th December but it has arrived just over seven months early!
    Avery you seem to have forgotten your predicted crossover dates of January 2013, April 2013, June 2013, October 2013, December 2013......ssssshhhh no one else noticed them.
    So we're agreed - most of Avery's crossover predictions were more accurate than yours!
    You originally stated "You were further away with your crossover prediction than Avery was!". It depends which Avery one you want to take. Unlike Avery, my prediction didn't move every few months.
    Mr Compouter go easy on Avery he thinks Osborne can count. Numeracy isn't his strong point.
    Avery numeracy seems to be on par with his memory.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @hendopolis: TELEGRAPH SCOTLAND: Die young to fund SNP pension plan #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/GlQNZg6Wb3
This discussion has been closed.