Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON and UKIP both now in the 20s in the first two of tonigh

2

Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited May 2014

    Pulpstar said:

    Just pile on any song that the gays would vote for ?

    Nah. Is more sophisticated than that.
    Just annoyed my £50 didn't get matched at 30s even though apparently Iceland went into 25-1. Should have probably done £30 at 50s or some such. Ah well.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Shame for Molly, though she did better than Engelbert , so that's something.

    Any sign of YouGov?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeK said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A question: let's assume that UKIP does better than anyone (other than MikeK) anticipates in 2015, and secures 55 seats. Together with the Conservatives 280 odd, that gives a workable majority (and no other combination is remotely possible, so assume Libs 25 or so).

    There is a UKIP/Con inspired EU referendum in 2016, with individuals in the Conservative Party allowed to campaign as they wish.

    The referendum result comes in 55/45 to stay in.

    Does the Con/UKIP coalition last?

    What happens then?

    You're a businessman, Smithson jr., how about the following scenario?

    Tories (to UKIP): We'll offer an In/Out referendum in the coalition deal.

    UKIP: F*ck off! You're committed to such a referendum anyway. Those adverts on PB say so. Offer us something you're not obliged to do anyway.

    Tories: Leaving the EU without a referendum?

    UKIP: It's a deal!
    The Conservative Party will not leave the EU without a referendum because there would be at least 25 of my hypothetical 280 Conservative MPs would vote against it - either because they themselves opposed exit, or because they believed the political fall-out from not offering a referendum would be too great.

    You would need UKIP with at least 250 MPs, not 50, to achieve that goal. And even there, if - say - UKIP had secured only 33% of the popular vote, it would be difficult given that is hardly a mandate to implement a change of that magnitude. Many UKIP supporters, like Richard Tyndall, believe that exit requires a referendum, so you may even get a few MPs uncomfortable with your proposal.
    If a week is a long time in politics, what about 49 weeks? A lot can change in a year and if UKIP come top in the EU elections in 12 days; it's all to play for.
    Just to stir it I had a dream that UKIP would get 88 seats in 2015. My dream and most PBers nightmare. Oh well.
    The Reform Party bods managed it in Canada.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just pile on any song that the gays would vote for ?

    Nah. Is more sophisticated than that.
    Just annoyed my £50 didn't get matched at 30s even though apparently Iceland went into 25-1. Should have probably done £30 at 50s or some such. Ah well.
    Eurovision is like a cricket match, if you're going to lay, you need to lay whilst you watch.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    @ZenPagan: Well, if UKIP want my vote, that's not a good way to start.

    You see, the thing is, I have been watching politics for half a century, so I've got some pretty good comparisons. And Cameron, for all his faults (which are mostly minor) is the best PM for half a century apart from the special case of Maggie. [Anyone who doesn't believe me just needs to get a piece of paper and start writing out the other candidates for this accolade..]

    As for policies, you have to be special kind of bonkers to think this government has 'no policies worth a damn'.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    On a more trivial note I wonder if the Ukraine army will go all out to stop the referendum in Donbass tomorrow and if so will a Russki response start WWIII?
  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    That strategy has won a friend of mine cash 2 for the last 2 years and I would assume this year - he takes his betting tips from a pink punter.
    Pulpstar said:

    Just pile on any song that the gays would vote for ?

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Looks like Basils back traumas are to continue.

    T minus 21 days for polling prediction reputations to be smashed to pieces.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited May 2014
    So very poor polls for Con tonight - bit of a surprise after a run of very good polls for them over the last few days - 10 polls up to yesterday (pre yesterday's Populus) had an average Lab lead of just 2.1%.

    Then we get:

    Populus - 4
    Survation - 5
    Opinium - 4

    OK, all MOE from 2.1 but all in the same direction!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just pile on any song that the gays would vote for ?

    Nah. Is more sophisticated than that.
    Just annoyed my £50 didn't get matched at 30s even though apparently Iceland went into 25-1. Should have probably done £30 at 50s or some such. Ah well.
    Eurovision is like a cricket match, if you're going to lay, you need to lay whilst you watch.
    Was out for a meal :) Wanted to come back to the whole £1500 lost !
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    MrJones said:

    On a more trivial note I wonder if the Ukraine army will go all out to stop the referendum in Donbass tomorrow and if so will a Russki response start WWIII?

    After going through this beautiful, unifying song contest together I predict Ukraine and Russia will call an immediate ceasefire and get drunk together while serenading Austria
  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119

    Looks like Basils back traumas are to continue.

    T minus 21 days for polling prediction reputations to be smashed to pieces.

    There is a post downthread that rumors tonight might be the night.

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    MikeL said:

    So very poor polls for Con tonight - bit of a surprise after a run of very good polls for them over the last few days - 10 polls up to yesterday (pre yesterday's Populus) had an average Lab lead of just 2.1%.

    Then we get:

    Populus - 5
    Survation - 5
    Opinium - 4

    Don't worry, Dan Hodges has just seen an unpublished Tory Party poll for the marginals showing The Tory Party way ahead......only he has seen it though.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    I like to think of it as Glastonbury for the gay community .

    Howls with laughter - bugger, you owe me for a new key board.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Well done the homosexuals of my facebook feed. They've been predicting an Austria win since the blinking Austrian qualifying competition. Given their record on almost everything else clearly Eurovision is to them what the Oscars were to the much missed Roger.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Neil said:

    Well done the homosexuals of my facebook feed. They've been predicting an Austria win since the blinking Austrian qualifying competition. Given their record on almost everything else clearly Eurovision is to them what the Oscars were to the much missed Roger.

    So why did you not tip off the PB Tories?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    I like to think of it as Glastonbury for the gay community .

    Howls with laughter - bugger, you owe me for a new key board.
    Seems like your keyboard is still working just fine, might be difficult to claim for :).

    Night all.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Neil said:

    Well done the homosexuals of my facebook feed. They've been predicting an Austria win since the blinking Austrian qualifying competition. Given their record on almost everything else clearly Eurovision is to them what the Oscars were to the much missed Roger.

    So why did you not tip off the PB Tories?
    I did, the other day, kept on telling people to back Austria.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Neil said:

    Well done the homosexuals of my facebook feed. They've been predicting an Austria win since the blinking Austrian qualifying competition. Given their record on almost everything else clearly Eurovision is to them what the Oscars were to the much missed Roger.

    'The homosexuals of my facebook feed' - next year's entry, perhaps? Name is a bit on the nose.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Neil said:

    Well done the homosexuals of my facebook feed. They've been predicting an Austria win since the blinking Austrian qualifying competition. Given their record on almost everything else clearly Eurovision is to them what the Oscars were to the much missed Roger.

    I've been wondering where on earth Roger has got to?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Honestly, if the Beeb put me in charge of the British entry, we'd win Eurovision every year.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    Well done the homosexuals of my facebook feed. They've been predicting an Austria win since the blinking Austrian qualifying competition. Given their record on almost everything else clearly Eurovision is to them what the Oscars were to the much missed Roger.

    So why did you not tip off the PB Tories?
    I believe I may have noted this in the last thread! I meant to anyway. But I was quite drunk quite early so it all went horribly wrong. TSE is a b@stard. I'm clearly still drunk! I'll buy you a cocktail out of my modest winnings (I was slightly embarrassed to bet on Eurovision so didnt gamble much).
  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    Neil said:

    Well done the homosexuals of my facebook feed. They've been predicting an Austria win since the blinking Austrian qualifying competition. Given their record on almost everything else clearly Eurovision is to them what the Oscars were to the much missed Roger.

    My friend gives me Eurovision advice, and his boyfriend gives me Championship football tips (being a Leeds fan). Any guesses who is the alpha male of the relationship?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited May 2014
    Lesson learnt for next year: If the odds are below 25 lay the UK, lay them heavily.

    If the odds on a top 10 finish are below evens, lay that too.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821


    I did, the other day, kept on telling people to back Austria.

    Damn, with your taste in shoes I should have listened to you!
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    GIN1138 said:

    MrJones said:

    On a more trivial note I wonder if the Ukraine army will go all out to stop the referendum in Donbass tomorrow and if so will a Russki response start WWIII?

    After going through this beautiful, unifying song contest together I predict Ukraine and Russia will call an immediate ceasefire and get drunk together while serenading Austria
    result
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    rcs1000 said:

    You would need UKIP with at least 250 MPs, not 50, to achieve that goal. And even there, if - say - UKIP had secured only 33% of the popular vote, it would be difficult given that is hardly a mandate to implement a change of that magnitude. Many UKIP supporters, like Richard Tyndall, believe that exit requires a referendum, so you may even get a few MPs uncomfortable with your proposal.

    We entered the EEC without a referendum, we can leave without one.

    We can always have one after the event if anyone's that concerned.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Looks like Basils back traumas are to continue.

    T minus 21 days for polling prediction reputations to be smashed to pieces.

    There is a post downthread that rumors tonight might be the night.

    Surely if there was a crossover, the first for years, The Sunday Times would find a place for it on the front page.

    Basil is not convinced and muttered something about "bollocks" and wandered off with the goalposts.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MrJones said:

    On a more trivial note I wonder if the Ukraine army will go all out to stop the referendum in Donbass tomorrow and if so will a Russki response start WWIII?

    They looked like they tried to early in the week, but they got pelted by civilians and russian militias have poured into the east since the Odessa massacre.
    Its like Vietnam with Russia playing the vietcong.
    This video report can give you a clue.
    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-05-09/mariupol-seethes-with-anger-after-a-day-of-deadly-clashes/

  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    GIN1138 said:

    Neil said:

    Well done the homosexuals of my facebook feed. They've been predicting an Austria win since the blinking Austrian qualifying competition. Given their record on almost everything else clearly Eurovision is to them what the Oscars were to the much missed Roger.

    I've been wondering where on earth Roger has got to?
    I don't know but I imagine Roger is sitting in a cafe in Cannes at some outrageous Eurovision party, stinking of Old Spice and stale cigars, dreaming up his next Tampax advert.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959


    I did, the other day, kept on telling people to back Austria.

    Damn, with your taste in shoes I should have listened to you!
    I promise, next year, I will make sure you don't miss my tips.

    Looking at the calendar, Eurovision is going to be held the week after the UK General Election.

    Blimey.
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    edited May 2014

    @ZenPagan: Well, if UKIP want my vote, that's not a good way to start.

    You see, the thing is, I have been watching politics for half a century, so I've got some pretty good comparisons. And Cameron, for all his faults (which are mostly minor) is the best PM for half a century apart from the special case of Maggie. [Anyone who doesn't believe me just needs to get a piece of paper and start writing out the other candidates for this accolade..]

    As for policies, you have to be special kind of bonkers to think this government has 'no policies worth a damn'.

    I too have been watching politics for hald a century. Cameron is far from the best prime minister by a long shot.

    Conservative policy is as close to new labour policy as makes no difference. New labour policy was worthless so is current conservative party policy. As long as the conservatives wish to mortgage future generations then they should rightly be regarded as no better than labour.

    While a lot of those on here have big important jobs those of us who have normal jobs and hover around about the 40% tax bracket start see absolutely nothing from your vaunted economic policy. There is no recovery for us. Our pay remains static, our taxes rise, our bills rise. There is nothing for us whatsoever in your vision of government.

    On top of this you shovel selling us out to european protectionism and allowing all and sundry to dip into our private lives at will via both state surveillance and selling our health and tax details.

    Most of us normal people hate your precious conservatives and lib dems and labour with a passion. You don't govern for the benefit of the bulk of the country you govern in the interests of big corporations.

    Eliminate the deficit.Start winding back the power of the state, the size of the state, and the intrusiveness of the state. This is why I voted conservative in 2010. You achieved of that list absolutely bugger all. I now pay more tax than ever for less services, my energy bills have all increased largely thanks to the green taxes. I still pay more for goods than people in other parts of the world because while you want free migration of labour to keep it cheap for you and your cronies you don't like free migration of goods so I can't buy of someone bringing in those cheap goods from india or south america.Quite happy to let in the workers though because that stops the amount you have to pay us rising.


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Wheres the Yougov ?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042


    I did, the other day, kept on telling people to back Austria.

    Damn, with your taste in shoes I should have listened to you!
    I promise, next year, I will make sure you don't miss my tips.

    Looking at the calendar, Eurovision is going to be held the week after the UK General Election.

    Blimey.
    Speaking of which, is there a PB election night party where we hire out a pub or something with loads of screens? Because there should be, and we've got a year to plan one.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014
    Tonight's Sunday Times YouGov Westminster VI is

    Con 31, Lab 38, LD 9, UKIP 13
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682


    Or they don't trust Cameron.

    Indeed. Bonkers.

    Incidentally, are UKIP still keen on referendums, or are they frit of those now? In 2010, they claimed to be very keen:

    http://www.blogs.stopjunkmail.org.uk/diary/index.php?/archives/36-Political-junk-mail-from-UKIP.html
    They are keen on referenda they might have a chance of winning, not ones that are fixed before they are even held by an utterly crooked and dishonest Prime Minister who believes in nothing except remaining in power.

    I would have thought you would have got that message by now.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926

    Looks like Basils back traumas are to continue.

    T minus 21 days for polling prediction reputations to be smashed to pieces.

    There is a post downthread that rumors tonight might be the night.

    Surely if there was a crossover, the first for years, The Sunday Times would find a place for it on the front page.

    Basil is not convinced and muttered something about "bollocks" and wandered off with the goalposts.
    If yougov is embargoed until midnight the first editions would not be able to carry it
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Nothing on Sunday Times front page about Tories reaching crossover (I think it would be front page news?)

    I reckon Boba was causing mischief. ;)
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Tonight's Sunday Times YouGov Westminster VI is

    Con 31, Lab 38, LD 9, UKIP 13

    The polls this week have been hilarious. Taunting us with nigh on crossover and then tonight making it look like Labour will have a majority of 50+.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Quincel said:


    I did, the other day, kept on telling people to back Austria.

    Damn, with your taste in shoes I should have listened to you!
    I promise, next year, I will make sure you don't miss my tips.

    Looking at the calendar, Eurovision is going to be held the week after the UK General Election.

    Blimey.
    Speaking of which, is there a PB election night party where we hire out a pub or something with loads of screens? Because there should be, and we've got a year to plan one.
    Good idea
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Is Ed up to the job of PM, Yes 25%, No 56%, DK 19%

    Has Ed made it clear what he stands for Yes 26%, No 58%, DK 16%
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Rumour of crossover = Labour 7% lead.

    There is currently one fuming squirrel with a gun looking for the person who started the rumour.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Let's hope it isn't: out of Afghanistan, into Nigeria.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Looks like Basils back traumas are to continue.

    T minus 21 days for polling prediction reputations to be smashed to pieces.

    There is a post downthread that rumors tonight might be the night.

    Surely if there was a crossover, the first for years, The Sunday Times would find a place for it on the front page.

    Basil is not convinced and muttered something about "bollocks" and wandered off with the goalposts.
    Basil took the day off, flew to Copenhagen and attached himself to Conchita's face, 'pouter.

    Now he has had a taste of public adulation I doubt he will be back to goal post duties.

    Maybe you can find a kitten as a substitute?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    marke09 said:

    Looks like Basils back traumas are to continue.

    T minus 21 days for polling prediction reputations to be smashed to pieces.

    There is a post downthread that rumors tonight might be the night.

    Surely if there was a crossover, the first for years, The Sunday Times would find a place for it on the front page.

    Basil is not convinced and muttered something about "bollocks" and wandered off with the goalposts.
    If yougov is embargoed until midnight the first editions would not be able to carry it
    Or maybe it was a whole load of cows anus....Labour 7% lead.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    I would like to clarify - TSE was not one of the homosexuals predicting an Austria win on my fb news feed.

    TSE doesnt appear on my fb news feed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    From the Sunday Times, Farage is about to park his tanks and pretty much everything else on Ed's lawn.

    The UKIP leader will release adverts arguing that it is Britain’s membership of the EU that has pushed up the price of food and fuel.....

    Today Farage will unveil two campaign posters on the cost of living. The first tells voters to “Use your loaf” and claims food bills could be £400 a year cheaper in every UK household. In a reference to Miliband’s pledge to freeze fuel bills, the second, of a lightbulb, argues that “Without the EU, every UK fuel bill would be £112 cheaper.”

    Farage said he believed the posters would “resonate with working-class voters”.

    “I agree with Mr Miliband that there is a cost-of-living crisis going on. But I intend to expose the fact that much of it is down to Labour’s own policies when it was last in government and in particular its acquiescence to diktats coming out of Brussels,” he said. “Food prices and energy prices are two key components of the squeeze on living standards. And in both cases the EU is right at the heart of the squeeze.”
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    rcs1000 said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A question: let's assume that UKIP does better than anyone (other than MikeK) anticipates in 2015, and secures 55 seats. Together with the Conservatives 280 odd, that gives a workable majority (and no other combination is remotely possible, so assume Libs 25 or so).

    There is a UKIP/Con inspired EU referendum in 2016, with individuals in the Conservative Party allowed to campaign as they wish.

    The referendum result comes in 55/45 to stay in.

    Does the Con/UKIP coalition last?

    What happens then?

    You're a businessman, Smithson jr., how about the following scenario?

    Tories (to UKIP): We'll offer an In/Out referendum in the coalition deal.

    UKIP: F*ck off! You're committed to such a referendum anyway. Those adverts on PB say so. Offer us something you're not obliged to do anyway.

    Tories: Leaving the EU without a referendum?

    UKIP: It's a deal!
    The Conservative Party will not leave the EU without a referendum because there would be at least 25 of my hypothetical 280 Conservative MPs would vote against it - either because they themselves opposed exit, or because they believed the political fall-out from not offering a referendum would be too great.

    You would need UKIP with at least 250 MPs, not 50, to achieve that goal. And even there, if - say - UKIP had secured only 33% of the popular vote, it would be difficult given that is hardly a mandate to implement a change of that magnitude. Many UKIP supporters, like Richard Tyndall, believe that exit requires a referendum, so you may even get a few MPs uncomfortable with your proposal.
    Yep you are right Robert. I do believe that such an important change should be with the explicit approval of the British people via a referendum rather than the debatable implicit approval from a General Election. As to the comment earlier that because we went in without a referendum we should leave without one I would point out that the lack of a referendum was corrected in 1975 and also that two wrongs don't make a right.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Is Ed up to the job of PM, Yes 25%, No 56%, DK 19%

    Has Ed made it clear what he stands for Yes 26%, No 58%, DK 16%

    First question is to be expected (I'm sure it's been even more abysmal at times in the past), but such low responses to "made it clear what he stands for" is very disappointing after he's recently set out some more distinctive policies. He's just going to have to keep plugging away, keep making the argument that it's time for big businesses and the elites to start cutting normal people a fairer deal, and hope that public perceptions aren't so utterly entrenched that it has no impact.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Neil said:

    I would like to clarify - TSE was not one of the homosexuals predicting an Austria win on my fb news feed.

    TSE doesnt appear on my fb news feed.

    Not for the first in my life am I forced to say, "I am not a homosexual"
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    isam said:

    Quincel said:


    I did, the other day, kept on telling people to back Austria.

    Damn, with your taste in shoes I should have listened to you!
    I promise, next year, I will make sure you don't miss my tips.

    Looking at the calendar, Eurovision is going to be held the week after the UK General Election.

    Blimey.
    Speaking of which, is there a PB election night party where we hire out a pub or something with loads of screens? Because there should be, and we've got a year to plan one.
    Good idea
    Hire a Thames riverboat, have a party and invite the BBC.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    @ZenPagan: Well, if UKIP want my vote, that's not a good way to start.

    You see, the thing is, I have been watching politics for half a century, so I've got some pretty good comparisons. And Cameron, for all his faults (which are mostly minor) is the best PM for half a century apart from the special case of Maggie. [Anyone who doesn't believe me just needs to get a piece of paper and start writing out the other candidates for this accolade..]

    As for policies, you have to be special kind of bonkers to think this government has 'no policies worth a damn'.

    If shifty eyed liar like Cameron is your idea of one of the best PM's in the last 50 years, it shows what a lamentable lot the rest were. Most were content to manage Britains decline from the top table after the end of WW2. The only one that made an attempt to stop the rot (Maggie), was stabbed in the back by her own Tory grandees (Howe and Heseltine) and the other slippery slugs around her.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Outlier, as was the Con gap closing to 1%.

    True picture is Lab 36, Con 33.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sunday Times: more than 100 billionaires now living in the UK, the highest per capita rate in the world.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The Survation leaders perception is interesting.
    Top 3 Bottom 3
    Cameron: Cockey,Bully,Sanctimonius Cameron: Thick, Naive, Sexless
    Miliband: Wet, Naive, Sexless Miliband: Bully, Cruel, Cocky
    Clegg: Naive, Wet, Remote Clegg: Cruel, Cocky, Bully
    Farage: Cocky, Bully, Phoney Farage: Wet, Remote, Sexless
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    AveryLP said:

    Looks like Basils back traumas are to continue.

    T minus 21 days for polling prediction reputations to be smashed to pieces.

    There is a post downthread that rumors tonight might be the night.

    Surely if there was a crossover, the first for years, The Sunday Times would find a place for it on the front page.

    Basil is not convinced and muttered something about "bollocks" and wandered off with the goalposts.
    Basil took the day off, flew to Copenhagen and attached himself to Conchita's face, 'pouter.

    Now he has had a taste of public adulation I doubt he will be back to goal post duties.

    Maybe you can find a kitten as a substitute?

    Is Ed up to the job of PM, Yes 25%, No 56%, DK 19%

    Has Ed made it clear what he stands for Yes 26%, No 58%, DK 16%

    And tonights top straw clutching post goes to.....TSE. You only just beat the post further down that said the subsection in tonights Yougov showing the Tory Party ahead among one legged Catholics that live in villages with populations less than 46 who can speak eight languages.....Tory majority nailed on!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    AveryLP said:

    Looks like Basils back traumas are to continue.

    T minus 21 days for polling prediction reputations to be smashed to pieces.

    There is a post downthread that rumors tonight might be the night.

    Surely if there was a crossover, the first for years, The Sunday Times would find a place for it on the front page.

    Basil is not convinced and muttered something about "bollocks" and wandered off with the goalposts.
    Basil took the day off, flew to Copenhagen and attached himself to Conchita's face, 'pouter.

    Now he has had a taste of public adulation I doubt he will be back to goal post duties.

    Maybe you can find a kitten as a substitute?

    Is Ed up to the job of PM, Yes 25%, No 56%, DK 19%

    Has Ed made it clear what he stands for Yes 26%, No 58%, DK 16%

    And tonights top straw clutching post goes to.....TSE. You only just beat the post further down that said the subsection in tonights Yougov showing the Tory Party ahead among one legged Catholics that live in villages with populations less than 46 who can speak eight languages.....Tory majority nailed on!
    Errr no, I always post stuff from the Sunday Times/YouGov when it comes out.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    From the Sunday Times, Farage is about to park his tanks and pretty much everything else on Ed's lawn.

    The UKIP leader will release adverts arguing that it is Britain’s membership of the EU that has pushed up the price of food and fuel.....

    Today Farage will unveil two campaign posters on the cost of living. The first tells voters to “Use your loaf” and claims food bills could be £400 a year cheaper in every UK household. In a reference to Miliband’s pledge to freeze fuel bills, the second, of a lightbulb, argues that “Without the EU, every UK fuel bill would be £112 cheaper.”

    Farage said he believed the posters would “resonate with working-class voters”.

    “I agree with Mr Miliband that there is a cost-of-living crisis going on. But I intend to expose the fact that much of it is down to Labour’s own policies when it was last in government and in particular its acquiescence to diktats coming out of Brussels,” he said. “Food prices and energy prices are two key components of the squeeze on living standards. And in both cases the EU is right at the heart of the squeeze.”

    I think UKIP could do very well in some unlikely places in the local elections.

    For example, Liverpool, where the party didn't stand at all 4 years ago. This time they're contesting most of the wards.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    The Mail's response to the UKIP rise in the polls:

    Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign

    First PBer to guess the name of the UKIP MEP wins a free download of Conchita's winning Eurovision song.

    For those still unable to identify the old roué, here is the original article: http://dailym.ai/RAEOke
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Perhaps the Un-Incredible Shrinking Man has shored up Labour's vote for a few days?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    From the Sunday Times, probably the most interesting polling of the night, if not unsurprising.

    Has British military involvement in Afghanistan been worthwhile? Yes 13%, No 70%, DK 17%

    Is Britain right to withdraw troops from Afghanistan? Right 82%, Wrong 6%, DK 12%
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Quincel said:

    Tonight's Sunday Times YouGov Westminster VI is

    Con 31, Lab 38, LD 9, UKIP 13

    The polls this week have been hilarious. Taunting us with nigh on crossover and then tonight making it look like Labour will have a majority of 50+.
    Titter. Yes, if Labour has a 7-point lead anyway, it doesn't really matter what voters think about Ed in the same poll.

    That said, we should all be a bit careful about polls over the next few weeks - it's like conference season, with two big events (Euros and Newark) which may shift opinion in very unexpected directions.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    GIN1138 said:

    Perhaps the Un-Incredible Shrinking Man has shored up Labour's vote for a few days?

    Nah, I thought it was trashed on here? This crossover, the one that has been mooted on here for what seems ages.....just not happening. Wonder when the Tory Party will hit the self destruct button?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Quincel said:

    Tonight's Sunday Times YouGov Westminster VI is

    Con 31, Lab 38, LD 9, UKIP 13

    The polls this week have been hilarious. Taunting us with nigh on crossover and then tonight making it look like Labour will have a majority of 50+.
    Titter. Yes, if Labour has a 7-point lead anyway, it doesn't really matter what voters think about Ed in the same poll.

    That said, we should all be a bit careful about polls over the next few weeks - it's like conference season, with two big events (Euros and Newark) which may shift opinion in very unexpected directions.
    I'm sure that's what SLAB supporters said in 2010 and 2011 when SLAB led SNP in the Holyrood VI polls, but Iain Gray trailed Alex Salmond in these sorts of questions.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Quincel said:


    I did, the other day, kept on telling people to back Austria.

    Damn, with your taste in shoes I should have listened to you!
    I promise, next year, I will make sure you don't miss my tips.

    Looking at the calendar, Eurovision is going to be held the week after the UK General Election.

    Blimey.
    Speaking of which, is there a PB election night party where we hire out a pub or something with loads of screens? Because there should be, and we've got a year to plan one.
    I am in two minds over this. I shall be going to the count in my local constituency just to see my local Tory MP get shafted, but I'd love to be with other PBers throughout the night and hear the banter as the results come in. Perhaps some of it could be posted online?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited May 2014

    Quincel said:

    Tonight's Sunday Times YouGov Westminster VI is

    Con 31, Lab 38, LD 9, UKIP 13

    The polls this week have been hilarious. Taunting us with nigh on crossover and then tonight making it look like Labour will have a majority of 50+.
    Titter. Yes, if Labour has a 7-point lead anyway, it doesn't really matter what voters think about Ed in the same poll.

    That said, we should all be a bit careful about polls over the next few weeks - it's like conference season, with two big events (Euros and Newark) which may shift opinion in very unexpected directions.
    I'm sure that's what SLAB supporters said in 2010 and 2011 when SLAB led SNP in the Holyrood VI polls, but Iain Gray trailed Alex Salmond in these sorts of questions.
    Thanks for that pearler TSE, I have added it to all the others, there are now 42 classic PB Hodge reasons why Labour wont win the next election.
  • Steven_WhaleySteven_Whaley Posts: 313
    I've finally decided on my vote for the Euros - it'll be going to the Greens. The Conservatives will get my city council election vote.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AveryLP said:

    The Mail's response to the UKIP rise in the polls:

    Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign

    First PBer to guess the name of the UKIP MEP wins a free download of Conchita's winning Eurovision song.

    For those still unable to identify the old roué, here is the original article: http://dailym.ai/RAEOke

    I will repeat it, Helmer is the worst choice for a prominent election for UKIP in years.
    Can UKIP withdraw him and put a decent candidate in his place?
  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    Neil said:

    I would like to clarify - TSE was not one of the homosexuals predicting an Austria win on my fb news feed.

    TSE doesnt appear on my fb news feed.

    Easy Neil

    http://wikiislam.net/wiki/Islam_and_Homosexuality
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Quincel said:

    Tonight's Sunday Times YouGov Westminster VI is

    Con 31, Lab 38, LD 9, UKIP 13

    The polls this week have been hilarious. Taunting us with nigh on crossover and then tonight making it look like Labour will have a majority of 50+.
    Titter. Yes, if Labour has a 7-point lead anyway, it doesn't really matter what voters think about Ed in the same poll.

    That said, we should all be a bit careful about polls over the next few weeks - it's like conference season, with two big events (Euros and Newark) which may shift opinion in very unexpected directions.
    I'm sure that's what SLAB supporters said in 2010 and 2011 when SLAB led SNP in the Holyrood VI polls, but Iain Gray trailed Alex Salmond in these sorts of questions.
    Thanks for that pearler TSE, I have added it to all the others, there are now 42 classic PB Hodge reasons why Labour wont win the next election.
    Actually, it's not a PB Hodge, but Mike Smithson thought, many PBers won money on that election when Mike flagged up those stats.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Morris_Dancer said: "Just read the BBC story on Take That's taxes. I might be missing something, but isn't tax avoidance (by definition, and as opposed to tax evasion) legal?"

    Something tells me that there is going to be another Take That tour sooner rather than later...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014
    Which reminds me, next week I won't be able to provide you with the Sunday Times/YouGov.

    I'll be partying at a wedding, where I'm best man, and it is somewhere with piss poor mobile signal.

    See, if Dave hadn't allowed the gays to get married, then this wouldn't be a problem.

    Allowing the gays to marry = PBers don't get their prompt fix of YouGov.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Quincel said:

    Tonight's Sunday Times YouGov Westminster VI is

    Con 31, Lab 38, LD 9, UKIP 13

    The polls this week have been hilarious. Taunting us with nigh on crossover and then tonight making it look like Labour will have a majority of 50+.
    Titter. Yes, if Labour has a 7-point lead anyway, it doesn't really matter what voters think about Ed in the same poll.

    That said, we should all be a bit careful about polls over the next few weeks - it's like conference season, with two big events (Euros and Newark) which may shift opinion in very unexpected directions.
    I'm sure that's what SLAB supporters said in 2010 and 2011 when SLAB led SNP in the Holyrood VI polls, but Iain Gray trailed Alex Salmond in these sorts of questions.
    Thanks for that pearler TSE, I have added it to all the others, there are now 42 classic PB Hodge reasons why Labour wont win the next election.
    Actually, it's not a PB Hodge, but Mike Smithson thought, many PBers won money on that election when Mike flagged up those stats.
    A bit touchy tonight TSE......don't worry it will be all over tomorrow when City win the title.

    BLUE MOOOOOOOON!!!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Quincel said:

    Tonight's Sunday Times YouGov Westminster VI is

    Con 31, Lab 38, LD 9, UKIP 13

    The polls this week have been hilarious. Taunting us with nigh on crossover and then tonight making it look like Labour will have a majority of 50+.
    Titter. Yes, if Labour has a 7-point lead anyway, it doesn't really matter what voters think about Ed in the same poll.

    That said, we should all be a bit careful about polls over the next few weeks - it's like conference season, with two big events (Euros and Newark) which may shift opinion in very unexpected directions.
    I'm sure that's what SLAB supporters said in 2010 and 2011 when SLAB led SNP in the Holyrood VI polls, but Iain Gray trailed Alex Salmond in these sorts of questions.
    Thanks for that pearler TSE, I have added it to all the others, there are now 42 classic PB Hodge reasons why Labour wont win the next election.
    Actually, it's not a PB Hodge, but Mike Smithson thought, many PBers won money on that election when Mike flagged up those stats.
    A bit touchy tonight TSE......don't worry it will be all over tomorrow when City win the title.

    BLUE MOOOOOOOON!!!!
    Not really, I'm on record saying many times, I'm expecting Ed to be PM next year.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Reading this thread reminds me of the heady days when there were ten grinning Gordon's on the thread header. Sometimes you just have to laugh at the gyrations of the opinion polls.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    I've finally decided on my vote for the Euros - it'll be going to the Greens. The Conservatives will get my city council election vote.

    Yay! Today pbc .. tomorrow the world!!!

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    kle4 said:

    When will the Tories give up on the idea of crossover?

    I find it hard to take posters who put up comments like this seriously, especially with the current polling figures.
    Socrates said:

    Could David Cameron go down as the first Conservative and Unionist PM to oversee the end of both the union and the conservative party?

    In yours and UKIP's dreams...

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Reading this thread reminds me of the heady days when there were ten grinning Gordon's on the thread header. Sometimes you just have to laugh at the gyrations of the opinion polls.

    I'm planning to bring back the smiling Eds in a few weeks time.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    I would like to clarify - TSE was not one of the homosexuals predicting an Austria win on my fb news feed.

    TSE doesnt appear on my fb news feed.

    Easy Neil

    http://wikiislam.net/wiki/Islam_and_Homosexuality
    Ha. One form of bigotry is no response to another. I pointed this out to the Austrian Eurovision fan I spent the evening with who tried to pass the Blood Libel off as current affairs!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    The average Labour share in tonight's three polls is 34.7%.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    Right, this is my second favourite Kipper story after Professor Sked and the missing apostrophe.

    A UKIP Member, Gary Robinson, tweeted a picture of the European Elections ballot paper suggesting UKIP had deliberately been put at the bottom of the list.

    ‘UK European Elections ballot paper 2014 – note #ukip at the very bottom’

    A response came in quickly:

    @GaryJRobinson It's in alphabetical order Gary #UKIP

    And a minute or too later still a new hashtag was created: #abcdefghijklmnopqrstU

    Oh dear. I truly feel sorry for Richard Tyndall.

    [Source: Metro - http://bit.ly/RyEpi4 ]
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Ninoinoz said:

    Quincel said:



    Speaking of which, is there a PB election night party where we hire out a pub or something with loads of screens? Because there should be, and we've got a year to plan one.

    I am in two minds over this. I shall be going to the count in my local constituency just to see my local Tory MP get shafted, but I'd love to be with other PBers throughout the night and hear the banter as the results come in. Perhaps some of it could be posted online?
    We did something like this for the US elections and had a great evening - one of the pbers worked in an online trading centre and welcomed us to his multi-screen den. If that's still available, it'd be very popular.

    Sadly I'll be otherwise engaged. It's one way that being a candidate is a pain - you miss most of the fun in the rest of the country as you're too busy peering at the forms from Box 17.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    AndyJS said:

    The average Labour share in tonight's three polls is 34.7%.

    Plenty enough with the Conservatives on 29.3%
  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    I would like to clarify - TSE was not one of the homosexuals predicting an Austria win on my fb news feed.

    TSE doesnt appear on my fb news feed.

    Easy Neil

    http://wikiislam.net/wiki/Islam_and_Homosexuality
    Ha. One form of bigotry is no response to another. I pointed this out to the Austrian Eurovision fan I spent the evening with who tried to pass the Blood Libel off as current affairs!
    Just read Wikipedia.Nasty. I suppose the difference is that Jewish law forbids murder.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Ninoinoz said:

    Quincel said:



    Speaking of which, is there a PB election night party where we hire out a pub or something with loads of screens? Because there should be, and we've got a year to plan one.

    I am in two minds over this. I shall be going to the count in my local constituency just to see my local Tory MP get shafted, but I'd love to be with other PBers throughout the night and hear the banter as the results come in. Perhaps some of it could be posted online?
    We did something like this for the US elections and had a great evening - one of the pbers worked in an online trading centre and welcomed us to his multi-screen den. If that's still available, it'd be very popular.

    Sadly I'll be otherwise engaged. It's one way that being a candidate is a pain - you miss most of the fun in the rest of the country as you're too busy peering at the forms from Box 17.

    We could all come to the Broxtowe count, Nick.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    AveryLP said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    Quincel said:



    Speaking of which, is there a PB election night party where we hire out a pub or something with loads of screens? Because there should be, and we've got a year to plan one.

    I am in two minds over this. I shall be going to the count in my local constituency just to see my local Tory MP get shafted, but I'd love to be with other PBers throughout the night and hear the banter as the results come in. Perhaps some of it could be posted online?
    We did something like this for the US elections and had a great evening - one of the pbers worked in an online trading centre and welcomed us to his multi-screen den. If that's still available, it'd be very popular.

    Sadly I'll be otherwise engaged. It's one way that being a candidate is a pain - you miss most of the fun in the rest of the country as you're too busy peering at the forms from Box 17.

    We could all come to the Broxtowe count, Nick.


    Actually I could do that. Not so far away from me !
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited May 2014
    How on earth can you take a UKIP supporter seriously, especially when they claim not to trust Cameron rather than Miliband or the Labour party to deliver on Europe after the record of the last Labour Government or their current Leadership??!! Cameron was the Conservative Leader who led his party through the Yes Lobby on a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty while the last Labour Government reneged on its promise and the Libdems literally sat on their hands wringing them as if it was student union debate.

    Cameron is currently the only Leader at Westminster promising an In/Out Referendum on Europe if his party wins the next GE, its not that UKIP supporters here distrust him on that pledge, its that he doesn't support their cause that triggers all the heat and wind on here. I followed the Lisbon Treaty vote very closely, even wrote to my Libdem MP criticising his and his party's behaviour on the issue. But trying to find a UKIP supporter on this site that can even recognise let alone praise what a party leader supporting and offering real democracy on our membership of the EU is like is like trying to find hens teeth.

    ZenPagan said:

    Given the ever closing gap between UKIP and the conservatives I feel it is the right time to pose this question

    Should the unlikely happen and UKIP overtake the conservatives in the GE polling and stay there can Mssr's Nabavi, ScottP etc all assure us now, given that they have been telling us all for weeks that we should vote for a party we despise in its current form and have little in common with in order to keep Milibrand and labour out, that they will indeed practice what they preach and hold their nose while putting a tick in the UKIP box?

    Sure, if UKIP agrees to sensible policies, such as an In/Out referendum. Why not? Parties are a means to an end, not an end in themselves.

    My gripe with UKIP is that they are deliberately sabotaging what they claim to want. Either they are bonkers, or they don't actually want it. Or both, I suppose.
    Or they don't trust Cameron.
  • Steven_WhaleySteven_Whaley Posts: 313
    Neil said:



    Yay! Today pbc .. tomorrow the world!!!

    Well it's more a candidate-based choice than a party-based choice - after doing a bit of research. :)

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Pulpstar said:

    AveryLP said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    Quincel said:



    Speaking of which, is there a PB election night party where we hire out a pub or something with loads of screens? Because there should be, and we've got a year to plan one.

    I am in two minds over this. I shall be going to the count in my local constituency just to see my local Tory MP get shafted, but I'd love to be with other PBers throughout the night and hear the banter as the results come in. Perhaps some of it could be posted online?
    We did something like this for the US elections and had a great evening - one of the pbers worked in an online trading centre and welcomed us to his multi-screen den. If that's still available, it'd be very popular.

    Sadly I'll be otherwise engaged. It's one way that being a candidate is a pain - you miss most of the fun in the rest of the country as you're too busy peering at the forms from Box 17.

    We could all come to the Broxtowe count, Nick.


    Actually I could do that. Not so far away from me !
    You'll be too busy trading your Labour bets, Pulpie!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AveryLP said:

    The Mail's response to the UKIP rise in the polls:

    Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign

    First PBer to guess the name of the UKIP MEP wins a free download of Conchita's winning Eurovision song.

    For those still unable to identify the old roué, here is the original article: http://dailym.ai/RAEOke

    Mr Farage said Ms Swann resigned when she wasn't selected as an MEP candidate. Lots of salt with that one.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ukip-is-not-antiimmigration-we-are-antiuncontrolled-immigration-9246861.html
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    You have to love Russian democracy:

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/100000-yes-ballots-for-referendum-intercepted-2-347222.html

    No wonder Ukraine wants to join the West.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @fitalass

    It's funny how Cameron's principles on this referendum that you salute as being a mark of a "real leader" only emerged with UKIP's rise in the poll. Sounds more like a follower than a leader to me.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    rcs1000 said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Yep you are right Robert. I do believe that such an important change should be with the explicit approval of the British people via a referendum rather than the debatable implicit approval from a General Election. As to the comment earlier that because we went in without a referendum we should leave without one I would point out that the lack of a referendum was corrected in 1975 and also that two wrongs don't make a right.
    A number of points:

    What do the Tories offer UKIP if UKIP hold the balance of power? They can't offer a referendum, they have already conceded that.

    Referenda can be held after the event. (e.g.1975. This is what makes no referendum over Lisbon Treaty a stone cold breach of a promise by Cameron.)

    The European Communities Act 1972 and 1975 referendum form a precedent.

    In any case, does anyone seriously think UKIP would hold a referendum if they formed a majority government? And what if they lost it if they did?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    fitalass said:


    Cameron is currently the only Leader at Westminster promising an In/Out Referendum on Europe if his party wins the next GE,


    ZenPagan said:

    Given the ever closing gap between UKIP and the conservatives I feel it is the right time to pose this question

    Should the unlikely happen and UKIP overtake the conservatives in the GE polling and stay there can Mssr's Nabavi, ScottP etc all assure us now, given that they have been telling us all for weeks that we should vote for a party we despise in its current form and have little in common with in order to keep Milibrand and labour out, that they will indeed practice what they preach and hold their nose while putting a tick in the UKIP box?

    Sure, if UKIP agrees to sensible policies, such as an In/Out referendum. Why not? Parties are a means to an end, not an end in themselves.

    My gripe with UKIP is that they are deliberately sabotaging what they claim to want. Either they are bonkers, or they don't actually want it. Or both, I suppose.
    Or they don't trust Cameron.
    As Mr Farage reminded us in his recent QT outing, Mr Cameron made exactly the same promise during the 2009 EU Parliament election.

    twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/462169908869341184
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    The Mail's response to the UKIP rise in the polls:

    Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign

    First PBer to guess the name of the UKIP MEP wins a free download of Conchita's winning Eurovision song.

    For those still unable to identify the old roué, here is the original article: http://dailym.ai/RAEOke

    Mr Farage said Ms Swann resigned when she wasn't selected as an MEP candidate. Lots of salt with that one.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ukip-is-not-antiimmigration-we-are-antiuncontrolled-immigration-9246861.html
    The issue isn't UKIP policy on immigration nor is it the reason for Ms. Swann's resignation: it is whether Helmer's behaviour in relation to his 24 year old female research assistant was appropriate.

    He doesn't even go to any length to deny or justify it:

    Last night Mr Helmer said: ‘I have a vague recollection of what she might be referring to.
    ‘After a meal with my staff, she wanted to have another drink and I took her to a bar. It became clear it was a bit of a dodgy bar, so we finished our beers and left. The detail is frankly a load of nonsense.’ [From Mail article linked below]


    A reader has to be somewhat naive to believe that a man in his sixties with a girl in her twenties can enter a bar called "Manhattan" in Brussels sit down and have a beer before realising it is is a strip joint!

    Come on 'Dave!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited May 2014
    And in 2009, Cameron was still nearer delivering that promise in both words and actions than Farage and UKIP are right now..... Its worth pointing out that while some of UKIP's more recent support might be coming from voters/non voters more interested in immigration, that message is beginning to resonate.

    Many of the UKIP supporters on this site may be frit about another Conservative Government under Cameron's leadership who delivers an In/Out EU referendum because Cameron isn't espousing their BOO out mantra. But there are other voters who are definitely being turned on to the fact that he is the only main stream party Leader who believes in giving the UK a nailed on say on this contentious issue. With the Indy Ref coming up in September, this is fast becoming a very powerful message, and one that Ed Miliband and the Labour party have badly miscalculated in the run up to the 2015 GE.

    fitalass said:


    Cameron is currently the only Leader at Westminster promising an In/Out Referendum on Europe if his party wins the next GE,


    ZenPagan said:

    Given the ever closing gap between UKIP and the conservatives I feel it is the right time to pose this question

    Should the unlikely happen and UKIP overtake the conservatives in the GE polling and stay there can Mssr's Nabavi, ScottP etc all assure us now, given that they have been telling us all for weeks that we should vote for a party we despise in its current form and have little in common with in order to keep Milibrand and labour out, that they will indeed practice what they preach and hold their nose while putting a tick in the UKIP box?

    Sure, if UKIP agrees to sensible policies, such as an In/Out referendum. Why not? Parties are a means to an end, not an end in themselves.

    My gripe with UKIP is that they are deliberately sabotaging what they claim to want. Either they are bonkers, or they don't actually want it. Or both, I suppose.
    Or they don't trust Cameron.
    As Mr Farage reminded us in his recent QT outing, Mr Cameron made exactly the same promise during the 2009 EU Parliament election.

    twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/462169908869341184
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BobaFett said:

    Socrates said:

    It's become pretty damn clear that the Tories now have far more votes on their right than on their left. At what point do they wake up to this, stop fiddling round the edges, and start embracing some properly conservative positions:

    - Start getting tough with Europe. Demand an upper limit on immigration from the EU in any one year. If we don't get it, argue for Better Off Out.
    - Proper action on wrong doers. Double prison sentences for violent crime and home burglaries, and get rid of concurrent sentencing.
    - Finally enact that British Bill of Rights, including requiring warrants or probably cause for government searches, a British court to examine evidence before extradition and stopping companies storing our personal communications without permission.
    - Get rid of these ridiculous bans on free speech for social media and real life. Just because we don't like an opinion doesn't mean we should ban it unless its an ongoing campaign of harassment against someone specific.

    The Tories tried marching off to the right in 2005. They ended up in a wilderness.
    They struggled because they had a poor leader, not because of their policies.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2014
    Quincel said:

    AndyJS said:

    Survation Euro poll:

    UKIP 32% (+1)
    Labour 28% (n/c)
    Conservatives 21% (-4)
    Liberal Dems 9% (+3)

    Ah, the Blue to Yellow unwind we've all been waiting for finally starts to show in the polls...
    Survation Euro UNS

    UKIP 25 (+12)
    Lab 24 (+11)
    Con 13 (-13)
    LD 4 (-7)
    Green* 1 (-1)
    SNP 2 (nc)
    Plaid 1 (nc)

    * no Green figure given, estimate.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    The Mail's response to the UKIP rise in the polls:

    Married UKIP politician, 70, accused of taking young female researcher to a strip club, threatening to 'trash' her reputation if she told and then pressuring her to resign

    First PBer to guess the name of the UKIP MEP wins a free download of Conchita's winning Eurovision song.

    For those still unable to identify the old roué, here is the original article: http://dailym.ai/RAEOke

    Mr Farage said Ms Swann resigned when she wasn't selected as an MEP candidate. Lots of salt with that one.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ukip-is-not-antiimmigration-we-are-antiuncontrolled-immigration-9246861.html
    The issue isn't UKIP policy on immigration nor is it the reason for Ms. Swann's resignation: it is whether Helmer's behaviour in relation to his 24 year old female research assistant was appropriate.

    He doesn't even go to any length to deny or justify it:

    Last night Mr Helmer said: ‘I have a vague recollection of what she might be referring to.
    ‘After a meal with my staff, she wanted to have another drink and I took her to a bar. It became clear it was a bit of a dodgy bar, so we finished our beers and left. The detail is frankly a load of nonsense.’ [From Mail article linked below]


    A reader has to be somewhat naive to believe that a man in his sixties with a girl in her twenties can enter a bar called "Manhattan" in Brussels sit down and have a beer before realising it is is a strip joint!

    Come on 'Dave!
    The Independent article was provoked by Ms Swann saying she could no longer campaign for UKIP due to their immigration policy.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rising-ukip-star-alexandra-swann-protests-her-own-partys-stance-on-immigration-9244746.html

    Now we have this Helmer tale.

    She seems to be a mini-Sked character.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Wrong. Cameron led his party through the lobbies to vote yes to a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty back before the last GE. Actions are what count, not words. And on this issue, Cameron's principles are far sounder than some of the UKIP posters on this site who constantly attempt to slag him off in an attempt to disguise their own dishonest agenda.
    Socrates said:

    @fitalass

    It's funny how Cameron's principles on this referendum that you salute as being a mark of a "real leader" only emerged with UKIP's rise in the poll. Sounds more like a follower than a leader to me.

This discussion has been closed.