On this basis it may be worth looking at those seats which are between say the 30th and 60th Tory Seats most vulnerable to Labour. Is there a ready means of identifying these please anyone?
The excellent antifrank lists them here ordered both by swing and by bookies' odds:
@Morris_Dancer - Not wanting to derail your current reminisces of past computer games (I'll raise you Elite and stop there), but yesterday you complained about the lack of feisty wenches in the Pirate PPB I linked to. By means of recompense - and entirely unrelated to the Party - you might appreciate this (although it is perhaps a bit too tasteful and safe for work)
At least we're now getting to see what Labour is responding to in its current bout of ads attacking the Lib Dems. They're trying to bind in the Red Liberals by engendering tribal hostility to the coalition by tying Nick Clegg in with David Cameron, labelling him as weak and duplicitous and/or a fellow traveller. This really is consistent with a fabled 35% strategy.
At least we're now getting to see what Labour is responding to in its current bout of ads attacking the Lib Dems. They're trying to bind in the Red Liberals by engendering tribal hostility to the coalition by tying Nick Clegg in with David Cameron, labelling him as weak and duplicitous and/or a fellow traveller. This really is consistent with a fabled 35% strategy.
Are Labour so dumb as to imagine that all 2010 Labour voters will be 2015 Labour voters?
At least we're now getting to see what Labour is responding to in its current bout of ads attacking the Lib Dems. They're trying to bind in the Red Liberals by engendering tribal hostility to the coalition by tying Nick Clegg in with David Cameron, labelling him as weak and duplicitous and/or a fellow traveller. This really is consistent with a fabled 35% strategy.
It still seems odd, though - it implies they are in such a panic about the Red Liberals forgetting their visceral hostility to the coalition that they are prepared to neglect other potential converts. However, the polling doesn't suggest that they have too much to worry about on that score.
So far I've had two leaflets through the door of my block of flats for the EU elections: the Lib Dems and the Communities United Party. It seems you can't cross the congestion charge boundary without having your jab against Europhobia.
Had nothing from the UKIP candidate for the Council election - the address is within a 1/2 mile radius. Nothing from Labour either. Plenty of apes' bum fodder from other parties.
Correct! They don't polish their shoes. I had never thought about it before (even though my wife owns 60+ pairs). I have never seen a woman, ever polish her shoes. I guess they simply buy a new pair...
Before we drift too far into the territory that could be labelled as sexist. Mr. Fett said this in an earlier post,
"the tie being pretty much the key part if an ensemble where a man can make a statement."
And cuff-links, Mr Fett, don't forget cuff-links. This is another item of the Gentleman's ensemble that is falling foul of the current come as you feel like it mode (though more slowly). To a young man starting out I would say always wear cuff-links and chose them carefully.
I am seeing why we made such shockingly poor allies for each other in the first diplomacy game !
But we have never met! How could you know I was a tie and cuff-links wearing grumpy old sod?
P,s, Apologies to you and to all whi might be interested. Herself came home and I had to help her do things - unload car, groom cat, make tea, listen, you know how it is.
Richard Nabavi - Why yes of course - I should have thought of antifrank's wondrous new website for obtaining this info, although judging by his betting tips, I don't think he places any credence whatsoever in Stephen Fisher's projections.
Anyone liking computer games but not knowing about Elite should be fired out of their own super-cannon.
I'm on tenterhooks for the new game to reach Beta, so I can get my grubby mitts on it. I wasted far too much of my life on both the original BBC and Archimedes versions...
At least we're now getting to see what Labour is responding to in its current bout of ads attacking the Lib Dems. They're trying to bind in the Red Liberals by engendering tribal hostility to the coalition by tying Nick Clegg in with David Cameron, labelling him as weak and duplicitous and/or a fellow traveller. This really is consistent with a fabled 35% strategy.
It still seems odd, though - it implies they are in such a panic about the Red Liberals forgetting their visceral hostility to the coalition that they are prepared to neglect other potential converts. The polling doesn't suggest that they have too much to worry about on that score.
It seems to me to be about turnout for the European elections, persuading these voters to get into the habit of voting Labour as a trial run for next year and maximising Labour vote share this year.
At least we're now getting to see what Labour is responding to in its current bout of ads attacking the Lib Dems. They're trying to bind in the Red Liberals by engendering tribal hostility to the coalition by tying Nick Clegg in with David Cameron, labelling him as weak and duplicitous and/or a fellow traveller. This really is consistent with a fabled 35% strategy.
It still seems odd, though - it implies they are in such a panic about the Red Liberals forgetting their visceral hostility to the coalition that they are prepared to neglect other potential converts. However, the polling doesn't suggest that they have too much to worry about on that score.
Wee Dougie Alexander and Ed Miliband are clearly behind this strategy.
Perhaps, like myself and others Labour strategists can't reconcile this, changes from the General Election.
Lab plus 6, Con minus 2, LD minus 15, UKIP plus 10
A variation on this old one
Here it is: Three men go to stay at a motel and the clerk charges them $30.00 for the room. They split the cost ten dollars each. Later the manager tells the clerk that he over- charged the men and that the actual cost should have been $25.00. He gives the clerk $5.00 and tells him to give it to the men. But he decides to cheat them and pockets $2.00. He then gives each man a dollar. Now each man has paid $9.00 to stay in the room and 3 X $9.00 = $27.00. The clerk pocketed $2.00. $27.00 + $2.00 = $29.00. So where is the other $1.00?
It seems to me to be about turnout for the European elections, persuading these voters to get into the habit of voting Labour as a trial run for next year and maximising Labour vote share this year.
Maybe.
An alternative explanation, which perhaps fits the known facts better, is straightforward strategic incompetence.
It seems to me to be about turnout for the European elections, persuading these voters to get into the habit of voting Labour as a trial run for next year and maximising Labour vote share this year.
Maybe.
An alternative explanation, which perhaps fits the known facts better, is straightforward strategic incompetence.
Correct! They don't polish their shoes. I had never thought about it before (even though my wife owns 60+ pairs). I have never seen a woman, ever polish her shoes. I guess they simply buy a new pair...
Before we drift too far into the territory that could be labelled as sexist. Mr. Fett said this in an earlier post,
"the tie being pretty much the key part if an ensemble where a man can make a statement."
And cuff-links, Mr Fett, don't forget cuff-links. This is another item of the Gentleman's ensemble that is falling foul of the current come as you feel like it mode (though more slowly). To a young man starting out I would say always wear cuff-links and chose them carefully.
Mr Llama, I beg to differ
Novelty cufflinks make me shudder.
I have a very simple pair of gold cufflinks, designed to look like buttons, that I wear most days. Apart from that, of course, I have a pair with an eagle's head on them for black and white tie. That's all I need.
Simple and understated is good when it comes to cufflinks.
Mr. Charles, but you wear cuff-links. That your's are very under-stated is the message you want to present with them. Fair enough, you are making a statement about you, the people you are interacting with will take note. The poor sap who turns up without any cuff-links is not even in the same game.
Not sure of the validity of my argument? OK, for the next few weeks at each meeting you go to consciously pay a attention to the gents' shirt cuffs. How many of the people in meetings with you are not wearing cuff-links? Then, if you feel like extending the game, compare their cuff-links, or absence thereof, with what you feel about the person.
I'm seeing David Braben in Cambridge next week (and I'm going to play Elite reloaded on the Oculus Rift when I'm there). He's the most youthful 50 year old I've ever met.
Perhaps, like myself and others Labour strategists can't reconcile this, changes from the General Election.
Lab plus 6, Con minus 2, LD minus 15, UKIP plus 10
A variation on this old one
Here it is: Three men go to stay at a motel and the clerk charges them $30.00 for the room. They split the cost ten dollars each. Later the manager tells the clerk that he over- charged the men and that the actual cost should have been $25.00. He gives the clerk $5.00 and tells him to give it to the men. But he decides to cheat them and pockets $2.00. He then gives each man a dollar. Now each man has paid $9.00 to stay in the room and 3 X $9.00 = $27.00. The clerk pocketed $2.00. $27.00 + $2.00 = $29.00. So where is the other $1.00?
The problem is that the USS2 seems to be misallocated?
The men have been charged USS30 plus (effectively) another USS2 by the clerk - so total cost is USS32, which minus the USS5 reduction is USS27 = 9 x 3.
Perhaps, like myself and others Labour strategists can't reconcile this, changes from the General Election.
Lab plus 6, Con minus 2, LD minus 15, UKIP plus 10
A variation on this old one
Here it is: Three men go to stay at a motel and the clerk charges them $30.00 for the room. They split the cost ten dollars each. Later the manager tells the clerk that he over- charged the men and that the actual cost should have been $25.00. He gives the clerk $5.00 and tells him to give it to the men. But he decides to cheat them and pockets $2.00. He then gives each man a dollar. Now each man has paid $9.00 to stay in the room and 3 X $9.00 = $27.00. The clerk pocketed $2.00. $27.00 + $2.00 = $29.00. So where is the other $1.00?
Men: -$27 Clerk +$2 Manager +$25
$27.00 + $2.00 = $29.00 is correct, but meaningless to the context of the scenario !
Perhaps, like myself and others Labour strategists can't reconcile this, changes from the General Election.
Lab plus 6, Con minus 2, LD minus 15, UKIP plus 10
A variation on this old one
Here it is: Three men go to stay at a motel and the clerk charges them $30.00 for the room. They split the cost ten dollars each. Later the manager tells the clerk that he over- charged the men and that the actual cost should have been $25.00. He gives the clerk $5.00 and tells him to give it to the men. But he decides to cheat them and pockets $2.00. He then gives each man a dollar. Now each man has paid $9.00 to stay in the room and 3 X $9.00 = $27.00. The clerk pocketed $2.00. $27.00 + $2.00 = $29.00. So where is the other $1.00?
The problem is that the USS2 seems to be misallocated?
The men have been charged USS30 plus (effectively) another USS2 by the clerk - so total cost is USS32, which minus the USS5 reduction is USS27 = 9 x 3.
Yes. Sorry to rehash that old one but I was just trying to see where the votes had come and gone from and to and it reminded me
It's a very clever move by Cameron saying that any debate with Farage must also include the Green leader. Two reasons:
1) The Greens will take far more votes from Lab than Con 2) Having 5 people makes it far, far harder for anyone to win outright and reduces the impact Farage can make
There is also a knock-on effect - because of point 1) it will make Miliband less keen on Farage being in the debates - which will in turn make it easier to go for the compromise of Farage being in just one debate - and that debate will be before the campaign starts.
I'm seeing David Braben in Cambridge next week (and I'm going to play Elite reloaded on the Oculus Rift when I'm there). He's the most youthful 50 year old I've ever met.
A few years ago I was lucky enough to watch him dock whilst playing the original Elite on a BBC B. He is one of my heroes, and the reason I got into the tech industry. After playing the original Elite on a BBC, I wrote my own 3D rotation code in Basic. I then did some hidden-line removal code, and it went far too slowly. So I then learnt assembler and coded it in that. I was eleven of twelve.
He was the cause of my slippery decline into programming madness... ;-)
It's a very clever move by Cameron saying that any debate with Farage must also include the Green leader. Two reasons:
1) The Greens will take far more votes from Lab than Con 2) Having 5 people makes it far, far harder for anyone to win outright and reduces the impact Farage can make
There is also a knock-on effect - because of point 1) it will make Miliband less keen on Farage being in the debates - which will in turn make it easier to go for the compromise of Farage being in just one debate - and that debate will be before the campaign starts.
Richard Nabavi - Why yes of course - I should have thought of antifrank's wondrous new website for obtaining this info, although judging by his betting tips, I don't think he places any credence whatsoever in Stephen Fisher's projections.
You pays your money ..... etc.
I don't really have any strong views either way on the various different projections. Stephen Fisher's look as plausible as any of them. My guess of the final outcome wouldn't be all that far away from his prediction - for me it's almost a flip of a coin which will be the largest party, though a lot will depend on which of Labour and the Conservatives manage to keep their heads through what is likely to be some fairly torrid polling for both in the run-up to and wake of the European elections.
As well as looking at things from a Labour perspective, you can look at the matter from a Conservative perspective too:
I'd suggest this is more helpful, because this helps set the Conservative's defence and offence in context. Unless you take account of the Lib Dem seats that the Conservatives are expected to win, you'll miss their impact on the Conservatives' chances of remaining largest party or of winning an overall majority.
It's a very clever move by Cameron saying that any debate with Farage must also include the Green leader. Two reasons:
1) The Greens will take far more votes from Lab than Con 2) Having 5 people makes it far, far harder for anyone to win outright and reduces the impact Farage can make
There is also a knock-on effect - because of point 1) it will make Miliband less keen on Farage being in the debates - which will in turn make it easier to go for the compromise of Farage being in just one debate - and that debate will be before the campaign starts.
I agree... flooding the debate to make it meaningless, or not desireable would be a clever move.
It seems to me to be about turnout for the European elections, persuading these voters to get into the habit of voting Labour as a trial run for next year and maximising Labour vote share this year.
Maybe.
An alternative explanation, which perhaps fits the known facts better, is straightforward strategic incompetence.
I didn't say that it was a sensible idea. I'm far from sure that it is a good idea in the longterm to tell a large part of the electorate that you're sending out a message that would be suitable for pantomime. But I expect that most of the public will ignore these party political broadcasts, as they very sensibly usually do.
Anyone liking computer games but not knowing about Elite should be fired out of their own super-cannon.
I'm on tenterhooks for the new game to reach Beta, so I can get my grubby mitts on it. I wasted far too much of my life on both the original BBC and Archimedes versions...
God, Elite - nearly cost me my job and my marriage. As opposed to the original Civilisation which just nearly led to divorce. I bet the screw up the Elite re-make though - too much empahsis on fancy graphics and not enough on gameplay.
@tnewtondunn: Re @edballs charge: Failing to stop at the scene of an accident - max fine of £5,000 fine and 10 points on license. Will mean he loses his.
Would you hand the keys back to man who lost his license...?
Mr. Llama, Civilisation II was great fun. Revolution (or whatever the mini-version for consoles) less so, which is a shame.
I'll never be a PC gamer but a few more strategy games for consoles would go down nicely.
It's entirely possible they'll screw up Elite but also possible they won't. XCOM: Enemy Unknown is a perfect example of taking ye olde franchise and making a fantastic up to date version.
Ironically, the plan by... whoever it was who plans, was initially to make an FPS or suchlike but fans were outraged, so the Planners conceded and said they'd *also* make a tactical/strategic game. Which turned out to be bloody fantastic. So fantastic, the shooter (I think it became XCOM: Declassified, or whatever the other game's called) ended up becoming more like Enemy Unknown than intended.
Perhaps, like myself and others Labour strategists can't reconcile this, changes from the General Election.
Lab plus 6, Con minus 2, LD minus 15, UKIP plus 10
A variation on this old one
Here it is: Three men go to stay at a motel and the clerk charges them $30.00 for the room. They split the cost ten dollars each. Later the manager tells the clerk that he over- charged the men and that the actual cost should have been $25.00. He gives the clerk $5.00 and tells him to give it to the men. But he decides to cheat them and pockets $2.00. He then gives each man a dollar. Now each man has paid $9.00 to stay in the room and 3 X $9.00 = $27.00. The clerk pocketed $2.00. $27.00 + $2.00 = $29.00. So where is the other $1.00?
The problem is that the USS2 seems to be misallocated?
The men have been charged USS30 plus (effectively) another USS2 by the clerk - so total cost is USS32, which minus the USS5 reduction is USS27 = 9 x 3.
Yes. Sorry to rehash that old one but I was just trying to see where the votes had come and gone from and to and it reminded me
Not at all - good for the brain and it reminds me I never did understand double entry bookkeeping. I had to draw a Cuisenaire rods style diagram to make sense of it. Even today I often draw a square to work out the probabilities of various results in two events each with more than one probability ...
Blimey, Guardian reader's 1st world problems are a hoot - and wtf is quinoa...?
It's a grain, similar to couscous. The key is the flavours you cook it with, like rice or couscous it doesn't really taste of anything itself.
Ah, cheers for that - baffled why any Guardian reader would choose to chow down on a tasteless seed, shipped from Bolivia, which starves the natives and has a carbon footprint the size a toyota, AND then sink into a state of moral cognitive dissonance about it.
The biggest ratings winner by far in sports at present is the NBA playoffs, now in their second round, on ESPN.
Thursday the two time defending champions Miami Heat were scheduled to play the second game of their series against the Brooklyn Nets in Miami, the highest rated of the playoffs so far, on ESPN.
ESPN dumped the game from ESPN to the deuce - the very much second place ESPN 2.
The reason was simple - ESPN covered the entire 3.5 hours of the first round of the NFL Draft live from Radio City Music Hall in NY. Strictly speaking it's not even a sporting event, but it will probably outdraw the NBA.
That's how big the NFL is - it's amazing. It just grows and grows.
For 2 weeks the sports talk universe and all the mock draft folks have been speculating about what would happen if Manziel was available when the Cowboys picked.
So as it bcame increasingly aparent that this was likely to happen, the sizzling event of the evening was when Johnny Manziel - Johnny Football - a highly rated QB expected to go early, with all the showbiz, flash and pizazz you could ever want, was still available by pick number 16, and the Dallas Cowboys were on the clock.
The ESPN broadcast crew was getting excited, so was the NFL Network Crew, the Cowboys faithful both the the venue and in the Dallas draft party were going nuts, twitter was on the verge of exploding, my email and sms were full of messages saying more or less "SAY IT Jerry SAY IT!!", and everyone knew that Jerry Jones the owner wanted Manziel, but luckily Jerry the General Manager kept his head and drafted tackle Zack Martin from Notre Dame.
Dan Patrick this morning had somebody called "Rebecca Lowe" on his program, (she aparently covered the Sochi Olympics with Dan), which although produced by DirecTV is also shown on the NBC Sports Network, which carries the EPL here. The first question to her was to explain what "The Dog's Bollocks" meant.
NBC Sports is showing every premier league game live this weekend, over 10 networks, most streaming online, and some very obscure indeed. It's the first time I can recall a full soccer segment on a mainstream sportstalk show, other than the dedicated soccer shows, or running the scores on ESPN.
Anyone liking computer games but not knowing about Elite should be fired out of their own super-cannon.
I'm on tenterhooks for the new game to reach Beta, so I can get my grubby mitts on it. I wasted far too much of my life on both the original BBC and Archimedes versions...
God, Elite - nearly cost me my job and my marriage. As opposed to the original Civilisation which just nearly led to divorce. I bet the screw up the Elite re-make though - too much empahsis on fancy graphics and not enough on gameplay.
Playing Elite on the Archimedes during my second year at university was the start of my change in career. I wondered why I was planning to go into civil engineering when I was so fascinated by computers. And given the health problems I had, within a year I had made the switch.
I'm a 'Fallout' widower - Mrs J can regularly spend five hours solid playing it. Aside from running, it's the best way for her to unwind.
Arguably there are some specific areas that it is broken.
For instance, the magnitude of the disagreement between RMT and TFL is vastly smaller than the disruption and consequential losses that it can cause to the wider London economy.
Where there is a public service, which cannot be effectively substituted, there is an argument for a 'no strike' rule. The workforce, naturally, should be appropriately compensated for giving up their right to withdraw labour
Anyone liking computer games but not knowing about Elite should be fired out of their own super-cannon.
I'm on tenterhooks for the new game to reach Beta, so I can get my grubby mitts on it. I wasted far too much of my life on both the original BBC and Archimedes versions...
At school we had one boot-legged copy of the disk, so whenever anyone in the room wanted to do a hyper-space jump they had to find which machine it was in and swap it round.
Happy days.
Tragically I have a BBC B in the attic somewhere. I could probably still fire it up
Mr. Jim, hmm. Does that mean Mr. Eagles is a Kipper? Orange and purple is very him.
In unrelated news, it seems Supermodels of SHIELD has been renewed for another season. Huzzah! [NB anyone who posts spoilers will be forced to play Ride to Hell: Retribution].
Anyone liking computer games but not knowing about Elite should be fired out of their own super-cannon.
I'm on tenterhooks for the new game to reach Beta, so I can get my grubby mitts on it. I wasted far too much of my life on both the original BBC and Archimedes versions...
At school we had one boot-legged copy of the disk, so whenever anyone in the room wanted to do a hyper-space jump they had to find which machine it was in and swap it round.
Happy days.
Tragically I have a BBC B in the attic somewhere. I could probably still fire it up
I got rid of most of my old tech during one of our house moves. I still have my five-slice RiscPC, and a load of development boards I worked on, some of which hold very happy memories. But I'll never work on anything quite as great as I did whilst at that company ever again. (sobs).
Somehow working on radios, TVs, gas meters, and even automotive isn't quite as appealing.
Some workers would appear to want to strike for no good reason other than having a dust up with the bosses. This is the result.
Remember when strikes were about workers rights ? Nowadays it seems to be in memorandum for a dead leader, or to show their dislike of a particular minister or against the withdrawl of spare room subsidies.
Unions are the ones pooping in the bed - there will be consequences.
It's a very clever move by Cameron saying that any debate with Farage must also include the Green leader. Two reasons:
1) The Greens will take far more votes from Lab than Con 2) Having 5 people makes it far, far harder for anyone to win outright and reduces the impact Farage can make
There is also a knock-on effect - because of point 1) it will make Miliband less keen on Farage being in the debates - which will in turn make it easier to go for the compromise of Farage being in just one debate - and that debate will be before the campaign starts.
Did you watch QT last night?
Yes - and Farage spoke for well over 1/5 of the time so made a good impact.
In an election debate he won't be able to - it will all be timed and he'll only get 1/5 of the air time.
It'll be very different to 2010 where Clegg had 1/3 of the air time and could build up a strong narrative. With 5 people it is far more stop start and nobody gets the chance to get a narrative going.
Indeed, and anecdotal though it is, half a dozen of the fast food shops on the Barking Road are asking for staff (waiting staff, drivers etc.) . Seems to suggest growing demand and therefore some sense of prosperity.
However, this is classic "boom and bust" territory and we've been before countless times. Wages start to rise as there is pressure on jobs (especially if immigration is further constrained) and our old friend inflation starts to stalk the land. This was how it was in the late 1980s in the south east and that didn't end well.
Me Old Alleynian
Osborne has already announced that he wants the government to pursue a "full employment" policy. Economists generally define "full employment" as achieving an unemployment rate of 5%. The UK has only come close to this rate in short periods since the 1970s the last being late 2003-late 2005. The last time the UK had five consecutive years below 5% was between 1970-75.
The most challenging task any government faces today in getting full employment is to get the long term unemployed back into work. But this doesn't mean turning back the clock: the skills needed in today's workforce and the geographic distribution of available jobs are very different from the early 1970s.
Rebuilding manufacturing will help but is not the sole solution. Encouraging SME start ups and deregulating national wage agreements for all sectors are the right pull strategies. Increasing work incentives by reducing benefits in real terms and reducing the fiscal burdens on the low paid is the right push strategy.
All this is being done but will take time to deliver. Nevertheless this task must have the highest political priority. Long term growth of the UK economy will depend on increased immigration and labour market flexibility, but this will only be politically acceptable if all efforts have been made first to get the current population into work.
On the boom and bust threat there are big differences in the current economy from prior periods. Just as house prices are rising at the same time as mortgage lending is falling, so increased demand for labour and consequent wage inflation is occurring at a time of general deflation. There is also slack in the labour market represented by reduced productivity.
As always with economic management success comes to those who get the fine balances right. So some wage inflation is good, too much is bad. Some immigration is good, too much is bad. Gradual fiscal changes are good, sudden change more disruptive.Getting these balances right while being aware of the risks is critical.
With Carney in Threadneedle Street and Osborne in No 11 (and even a diminished 'Cleggie' in the Cabinet Office!), we can retain faith and hope.
We just need to avoid losing it all by electing the twin Eds in 2015!
Arguably there are some specific areas that it is broken.
For instance, the magnitude of the disagreement between RMT and TFL is vastly smaller than the disruption and consequential losses that it can cause to the wider London economy.
Where there is a public service, which cannot be effectively substituted, there is an argument for a 'no strike' rule. The workforce, naturally, should be appropriately compensated for giving up their right to withdraw labour
Industrial action in the UK needs root and branch reform. The labour injunction is simply ridiculous, and although recent years have seen the courts pull back a bit, there's still the strict application of entirely arbitrary balloting principles used with no more principle than simply to put hoops for unions to jump through.
If we got rid of it, replaced it with a specialist quasi-judicial body, then we could get rid of some of the arbitrary features and the cat and mouse injunction game. In would come considerations incumbent upon employers (missing from the current procedure) as already applied by ACAS, and the wider effect on the the economy, i.e. parties other than those in the trade dispute.
One of these days the Demir and Enerji line of cases - long stacked against trade unions on justification rather than interference - will strike more closely at English labour law. If we have to remove restrictions, things will become even more arbitrary.
Farage, Caroline Lucas, Chuku Umunna, Shirley Williams, and Grant Schapps.
Obviously I am biased but it seemed as though Farage came off best. They tried every trick in the book to get at him, it was 4 vs 1 for a while and he batted them all away well.
Umunna was very, very poor
EDIT: Blimey I hadn't seen this! Farage nicking my material!
It's a very clever move by Cameron saying that any debate with Farage must also include the Green leader. Two reasons:
1) The Greens will take far more votes from Lab than Con 2) Having 5 people makes it far, far harder for anyone to win outright and reduces the impact Farage can make
There is also a knock-on effect - because of point 1) it will make Miliband less keen on Farage being in the debates - which will in turn make it easier to go for the compromise of Farage being in just one debate - and that debate will be before the campaign starts.
Did you watch QT last night?
Yes - and Farage spoke for well over 1/5 of the time so made a good impact.
In an election debate he won't be able to - it will all be timed and he'll only get 1/5 of the air time.
It'll be very different to 2010 where Clegg had 1/3 of the air time and could build up a strong narrative. With 5 people it is far more stop start and nobody gets the chance to get a narrative going.
Yes but if all the parties are running as scared of UKIP as they are now, they will all be concentrating on attacking Farage, and that plays straight into UKIPs hands
@SkyNewsBreak: Former Cabinet Minister Chris Huhne ordered to pay £77,750 for the costs of his prosecution for passing speeding points to his former wife
@SkyNewsBreak: Former Cabinet Minister Chris Huhne ordered to pay £77,750 for the costs of his prosecution for passing speeding points to his former wife
Plus his own defence costs, I assume.
Those were three expensive points! I guess the conclusion is that Perjury doesn't pay
@SkyNewsBreak: Former Cabinet Minister Chris Huhne ordered to pay £77,750 for the costs of his prosecution for passing speeding points to his former wife
Correct! They don't polish their shoes. I had never thought about it before (even though my wife owns 60+ pairs). I have never seen a woman, ever polish her shoes. I guess they simply buy a new pair...
Before we drift too far into the territory that could be labelled as sexist. Mr. Fett said this in an earlier post,
"the tie being pretty much the key part if an ensemble where a man can make a statement."
And cuff-links, Mr Fett, don't forget cuff-links. This is another item of the Gentleman's ensemble that is falling foul of the current come as you feel like it mode (though more slowly). To a young man starting out I would say always wear cuff-links and chose them carefully.
Mr Llama, I beg to differ
Novelty cufflinks make me shudder.
I have a very simple pair of gold cufflinks, designed to look like buttons, that I wear most days. Apart from that, of course, I have a pair with an eagle's head on them for black and white tie. That's all I need.
Simple and understated is good when it comes to cufflinks.
Agreed. I've one pair of plain gold, and several of silver, with semi-precious stones.
If Labour came third in the Euro elections, how tenable would Ed Miliband's position be? Because I think that at the moment UKIP is taking more votes from Labour than the Tories.
If Labour came third in the Euro elections, how tenable would Ed Miliband's position be? Because I think that at the moment UKIP is taking more votes from Labour than the Tories.
Gordon Brown survived the experience last time. Labour don't have a reputation for killing off leaders.
If Labour came third in the Euro elections, how tenable would Ed Miliband's position be? Because I think that at the moment UKIP is taking more votes from Labour than the Tories.
It's too late to do anything but he'd be very badly damaged. Proximity of the GE would prevent the sea wall collapsing on him but it's hard to see it not causing hushed briefings etc
@SkyNewsBreak: Former Cabinet Minister Chris Huhne ordered to pay £77,750 for the costs of his prosecution for passing speeding points to his former wife
Plus his own defence costs, I assume.
One would have thought so, must be a few £Ks - plus £77,750 and the mistress's £410,000 failed court case. It's been an expensive last few years for Huhne, what with one thing and another. - oh well, never mind.
Umunna's dramatically overrated. He comes across as a man as superficial as Miliband, but slimier, and even more intellectually self-confident.
I haven't seen the last QT, but I actually rate Umunna very highly. Typically people only rate highly members of the opposite team if they have a history of breaking ranks. I think right-wingers are allowing themselves to be blinded in this case.
It's a very clever move by Cameron saying that any debate with Farage must also include the Green leader. Two reasons:
1) The Greens will take far more votes from Lab than Con 2) Having 5 people makes it far, far harder for anyone to win outright and reduces the impact Farage can make
There is also a knock-on effect - because of point 1) it will make Miliband less keen on Farage being in the debates - which will in turn make it easier to go for the compromise of Farage being in just one debate - and that debate will be before the campaign starts.
Did you watch QT last night?
Yes - and Farage spoke for well over 1/5 of the time so made a good impact.
In an election debate he won't be able to - it will all be timed and he'll only get 1/5 of the air time.
It'll be very different to 2010 where Clegg had 1/3 of the air time and could build up a strong narrative. With 5 people it is far more stop start and nobody gets the chance to get a narrative going.
Indeed, and anecdotal though it is, half a dozen of the fast food shops on the Barking Road are asking for staff (waiting staff, drivers etc.) . Seems to suggest growing demand and therefore some sense of prosperity.
However, this is classic "boom and bust" territory and we've been before countless times. Wages start to rise as there is pressure on jobs (especially if immigration is further constrained) and our old friend inflation starts to stalk the land. This was how it was in the late 1980s in the south east and that didn't end well.
Me Old Alleynian
Osborne has already announced that he wants the government to pursue a "full employment" policy. Economists generally define "full employment" as achieving an unemployment rate of 5%. The UK has only come close to this rate in short periods since the 1970s the last being late 2003-late 2005. The last time the UK had five consecutive years below 5% was between 1970-75.
The most challenging task any government faces today in getting full employment is to get the long term unemployed back into work. But this doesn't mean turning back the clock: the skills needed in today's workforce and the geographic distribution of available jobs are very different from the early 1970s.
With Carney in Threadneedle Street and Osborne in No 11 (and even a diminished 'Cleggie' in the Cabinet Office!), we can retain faith and hope.
We just need to avoid losing it all by electing the twin Eds in 2015!
As someone who is running an SME, a start up and working in manufacturing quite simply Osborne hasn't a clue on what works. It's just all airy fairy waffle. Send him to the FO and get someone decent.
Osborne has already announced that he wants the government to pursue a "full employment" policy. Economists generally define "full employment" as achieving an unemployment rate of 5%. The UK has only come close to this rate in short periods since the 1970s the last being late 2003-late 2005. The last time the UK had five consecutive years below 5% was between 1970-75.
On the boom and bust threat there are big differences in the current economy from prior periods. Just as house prices are rising at the same time as mortgage lending is falling, so increased demand for labour and consequent wage inflation is occurring at a time of general deflation. There is also slack in the labour market represented by reduced productivity.
As always with economic management success comes to those who get the fine balances right. So some wage inflation is good, too much is bad. Some immigration is good, too much is bad. Gradual fiscal changes are good, sudden change more disruptive.Getting these balances right while being aware of the risks is critical.
Well, you didn't insult me by calling me "College" for which I'm grateful.
The reply is complacency incarnate - I would contend that in London and the South-East, we achieved full employment in the 1980s (I believe the unemployment rate around Gatwick was 2% in the mid-80s) and we are on the way to that again.
We therefore have rising house prices and an impending labour shortage fuelled by QE and artificially loose monetary policy which has accentuated the economic disparity and created an artificial boom for London and the South East (one might imagine a political motive behind that but that would be cynical). I suspect when we see regional polling we will see a strong Conservative performance in the South East though I doubt the value of increasing the majority in Stockbroker Belt South from 15,000 to 25,000.
Osborne has deliberately fuelled this and when (not if) the patient is taken off the drugs, we may get a sense of how it will be to go economic "cold turkey".
It is of course absurd to have a "national" economic policy for a country with such divergent regional economies but that's the impracticality of the nation-state for you.
Hmmm - I'd have thought that was a near-somnolent dog that would best be left quietly in its basket.
Changes are definitely needed after how much the RMT are costing London's economy. But I feel like this 50% of all members issue is the wrong solution. Particularly as MPs don't need half of all voters to get in power.
I think it would be much more reasonable to limit strikes to cases of poor working conditions, unfair treatment of members, or compulsory redundancies. The problem isn't that it's easy for unions to strike, it's that they're striking over frivolous things. Blackmailing a city over the future of the public service, when that strategy has been decided by the democratically-elected city government is clearly undue influence.
The more popular UKIP becomes with working-class Labour voters, the less attractive it becomes to retired colonels in places like Tunbridge Wells, Esher, etc. So it'll be interesting to see if UKIP don't do quite as well as expected in the home counties commuter belt.
Odd that News24 should be significantly out on just the DA figure... Although they are also putting the ANC at around 4000 higher than the official results.
Elections ZA say there are just 69 polling stations left to declare.
Comments
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-crimson-tide.html
On Taylor Davis, I like quite a few of her covers, particularly Skyfall and Metal Gear Solid themes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elite_(video_game)
P,s, Apologies to you and to all whi might be interested. Herself came home and I had to help her do things - unload car, groom cat, make tea, listen, you know how it is.
Lab plus 6, Con minus 2, LD minus 15, UKIP plus 10
You pays your money ..... etc.
I'm on tenterhooks for the new game to reach Beta, so I can get my grubby mitts on it. I wasted far too much of my life on both the original BBC and Archimedes versions...
https://elite.frontier.co.uk/
Blimey, Guardian reader's 1st world problems are a hoot - and wtf is quinoa...?
Here it is: Three men go to stay at a motel and the clerk
charges them $30.00 for the room. They split the cost ten
dollars each. Later the manager tells the clerk that he over-
charged the men and that the actual cost should have been
$25.00. He gives the clerk $5.00 and tells him to give it to the
men. But he decides to cheat them and pockets $2.00. He then
gives each man a dollar. Now each man has paid $9.00 to stay in
the room and 3 X $9.00 = $27.00. The clerk pocketed $2.00.
$27.00 + $2.00 = $29.00. So where is the other $1.00?
An alternative explanation, which perhaps fits the known facts better, is straightforward strategic incompetence.
Not sure of the validity of my argument? OK, for the next few weeks at each meeting you go to consciously pay a attention to the gents' shirt cuffs. How many of the people in meetings with you are not wearing cuff-links? Then, if you feel like extending the game, compare their cuff-links, or absence thereof, with what you feel about the person.
The men have been charged USS30 plus (effectively) another USS2 by the clerk - so total cost is USS32, which minus the USS5 reduction is USS27 = 9 x 3.
Clerk +$2
Manager +$25
$27.00 + $2.00 = $29.00 is correct, but meaningless to the context of the scenario !
Indeed, there are some parts of the electorate they clearly do not want to vote for them
1) The Greens will take far more votes from Lab than Con
2) Having 5 people makes it far, far harder for anyone to win outright and reduces the impact Farage can make
There is also a knock-on effect - because of point 1) it will make Miliband less keen on Farage being in the debates - which will in turn make it easier to go for the compromise of Farage being in just one debate - and that debate will be before the campaign starts.
He was the cause of my slippery decline into programming madness... ;-)
As well as looking at things from a Labour perspective, you can look at the matter from a Conservative perspective too:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-conservatives-overall-chances.html
I'd suggest this is more helpful, because this helps set the Conservative's defence and offence in context. Unless you take account of the Lib Dem seats that the Conservatives are expected to win, you'll miss their impact on the Conservatives' chances of remaining largest party or of winning an overall majority.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27339147
Indeed. If it ain't broke, don;t fix it.
Missed it. Is it worth a watch?
Would you hand the keys back to man who lost his license...?
I'll never be a PC gamer but a few more strategy games for consoles would go down nicely.
It's entirely possible they'll screw up Elite but also possible they won't. XCOM: Enemy Unknown is a perfect example of taking ye olde franchise and making a fantastic up to date version.
Ironically, the plan by... whoever it was who plans, was initially to make an FPS or suchlike but fans were outraged, so the Planners conceded and said they'd *also* make a tactical/strategic game. Which turned out to be bloody fantastic. So fantastic, the shooter (I think it became XCOM: Declassified, or whatever the other game's called) ended up becoming more like Enemy Unknown than intended.
What's wrong with a bag of chips? - plonkers.
Edited extra bit: hahahahahaha.
Thursday the two time defending champions Miami Heat were scheduled to play the second game of their series against the Brooklyn Nets in Miami, the highest rated of the playoffs so far, on ESPN.
ESPN dumped the game from ESPN to the deuce - the very much second place ESPN 2.
The reason was simple - ESPN covered the entire 3.5 hours of the first round of the NFL Draft live from Radio City Music Hall in NY. Strictly speaking it's not even a sporting event, but it will probably outdraw the NBA.
That's how big the NFL is - it's amazing. It just grows and grows.
For 2 weeks the sports talk universe and all the mock draft folks have been speculating about what would happen if Manziel was available when the Cowboys picked.
So as it bcame increasingly aparent that this was likely to happen, the sizzling event of the evening was when Johnny Manziel - Johnny Football - a highly rated QB expected to go early, with all the showbiz, flash and pizazz you could ever want, was still available by pick number 16, and the Dallas Cowboys were on the clock.
The ESPN broadcast crew was getting excited, so was the NFL Network Crew, the Cowboys faithful both the the venue and in the Dallas draft party were going nuts, twitter was on the verge of exploding, my email and sms were full of messages saying more or less "SAY IT Jerry SAY IT!!", and everyone knew that Jerry Jones the owner wanted Manziel, but luckily Jerry the General Manager kept his head and drafted tackle Zack Martin from Notre Dame.
Dan Patrick this morning had somebody called "Rebecca Lowe" on his program, (she aparently covered the Sochi Olympics with Dan), which although produced by DirecTV is also shown on the NBC Sports Network, which carries the EPL here. The first question to her was to explain what "The Dog's Bollocks" meant.
NBC Sports is showing every premier league game live this weekend, over 10 networks, most streaming online, and some very obscure indeed. It's the first time I can recall a full soccer segment on a mainstream sportstalk show, other than the dedicated soccer shows, or running the scores on ESPN.
I'm a 'Fallout' widower - Mrs J can regularly spend five hours solid playing it. Aside from running, it's the best way for her to unwind.
For instance, the magnitude of the disagreement between RMT and TFL is vastly smaller than the disruption and consequential losses that it can cause to the wider London economy.
Where there is a public service, which cannot be effectively substituted, there is an argument for a 'no strike' rule. The workforce, naturally, should be appropriately compensated for giving up their right to withdraw labour
Happy days.
Tragically I have a BBC B in the attic somewhere. I could probably still fire it up
In unrelated news, it seems Supermodels of SHIELD has been renewed for another season. Huzzah! [NB anyone who posts spoilers will be forced to play Ride to Hell: Retribution].
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Bristol-student-s-Nando-s-selfie-David-Cameron/story-21079760-detail/story.html
Somehow working on radios, TVs, gas meters, and even automotive isn't quite as appealing.
Unions are the ones pooping in the bed - there will be consequences.
twitter.com/mirrorgamer/status/464527046463721473
In an election debate he won't be able to - it will all be timed and he'll only get 1/5 of the air time.
It'll be very different to 2010 where Clegg had 1/3 of the air time and could build up a strong narrative. With 5 people it is far more stop start and nobody gets the chance to get a narrative going.
Osborne has already announced that he wants the government to pursue a "full employment" policy. Economists generally define "full employment" as achieving an unemployment rate of 5%. The UK has only come close to this rate in short periods since the 1970s the last being late 2003-late 2005. The last time the UK had five consecutive years below 5% was between 1970-75.
The most challenging task any government faces today in getting full employment is to get the long term unemployed back into work. But this doesn't mean turning back the clock: the skills needed in today's workforce and the geographic distribution of available jobs are very different from the early 1970s.
Rebuilding manufacturing will help but is not the sole solution. Encouraging SME start ups and deregulating national wage agreements for all sectors are the right pull strategies. Increasing work incentives by reducing benefits in real terms and reducing the fiscal burdens on the low paid is the right push strategy.
All this is being done but will take time to deliver. Nevertheless this task must have the highest political priority. Long term growth of the UK economy will depend on increased immigration and labour market flexibility, but this will only be politically acceptable if all efforts have been made first to get the current population into work.
On the boom and bust threat there are big differences in the current economy from prior periods. Just as house prices are rising at the same time as mortgage lending is falling, so increased demand for labour and consequent wage inflation is occurring at a time of general deflation. There is also slack in the labour market represented by reduced productivity.
As always with economic management success comes to those who get the fine balances right. So some wage inflation is good, too much is bad. Some immigration is good, too much is bad. Gradual fiscal changes are good, sudden change more disruptive.Getting these balances right while being aware of the risks is critical.
With Carney in Threadneedle Street and Osborne in No 11 (and even a diminished 'Cleggie' in the Cabinet Office!), we can retain faith and hope.
We just need to avoid losing it all by electing the twin Eds in 2015!
If we got rid of it, replaced it with a specialist quasi-judicial body, then we could get rid of some of the arbitrary features and the cat and mouse injunction game. In would come considerations incumbent upon employers (missing from the current procedure) as already applied by ACAS, and the wider effect on the the economy, i.e. parties other than those in the trade dispute.
One of these days the Demir and Enerji line of cases - long stacked against trade unions on justification rather than interference - will strike more closely at English labour law. If we have to remove restrictions, things will become even more arbitrary.
Farage, Caroline Lucas, Chuku Umunna, Shirley Williams, and Grant Schapps.
Obviously I am biased but it seemed as though Farage came off best. They tried every trick in the book to get at him, it was 4 vs 1 for a while and he batted them all away well.
Umunna was very, very poor
EDIT: Blimey I hadn't seen this! Farage nicking my material!
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/474985/FARAGE-In-Cameron-Land-the-term-BS-stands-for-Big-Society-I-can-think-of-another-term
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/27347990
Late payment has annoyed Renault.
Umunna's dramatically overrated. He comes across as a man as superficial as Miliband, but slimier, and even more intellectually self-confident.
1994: 3,983,690 [20.39%] — National Party
1999: 1,527,337 [9.56%] — Democratic Party
2004: 1,931,201 [12.37%] — Democratic Alliance
2009: 2,945,829 [16.66%] — Democratic Alliance
Latest 2014 figures: 4,043,289 [22.15%] — Democratic Alliance
http://www.news24.com/Elections/Results#map=live
Pryce £49,200
Pryce £49,200
Those were three expensive points! I guess the conclusion is that Perjury doesn't pay
Nice to hear of Huhne's large costs.
Back Austria, Ukraine, UK & Iceland, lay Russia
The reply is complacency incarnate - I would contend that in London and the South-East, we achieved full employment in the 1980s (I believe the unemployment rate around Gatwick was 2% in the mid-80s) and we are on the way to that again.
We therefore have rising house prices and an impending labour shortage fuelled by QE and artificially loose monetary policy which has accentuated the economic disparity and created an artificial boom for London and the South East (one might imagine a political motive behind that but that would be cynical). I suspect when we see regional polling we will see a strong Conservative performance in the South East though I doubt the value of increasing the majority in Stockbroker Belt South from 15,000 to 25,000.
Osborne has deliberately fuelled this and when (not if) the patient is taken off the drugs, we may get a sense of how it will be to go economic "cold turkey".
It is of course absurd to have a "national" economic policy for a country with such divergent regional economies but that's the impracticality of the nation-state for you.
I think it would be much more reasonable to limit strikes to cases of poor working conditions, unfair treatment of members, or compulsory redundancies. The problem isn't that it's easy for unions to strike, it's that they're striking over frivolous things. Blackmailing a city over the future of the public service, when that strategy has been decided by the democratically-elected city government is clearly undue influence.
She said they were irreplaceable!
Although they are also putting the ANC at around 4000 higher than the official results.
Elections ZA say there are just 69 polling stations left to declare.