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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EdM’s Labour is attracting far fewer Lib Dem converts for t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EdM’s Labour is attracting far fewer Lib Dem converts for the May 22nd Euros than for the general election
The above chart is based on the last three Euro2014 polls where there were Westminster numbers as well. The figures shown are proportions of 2010 LDs saying they’ll vote LAB in the general election and those who’ll support the party in the May 22nd Euros.
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Wonder what the odds are there...
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/08/white-men-environmental-movement-leadership
Never hate your enemies, it clouds your judgement.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/tabathaleggett/the-12-most-guardian-headlines-ever
I liked this one, from today:
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/may/09/is-the-pdf-hurting-democracy
Very good point about the tie being pretty much the key part if an ensemble where a man can make a statement. As I say, I think it's a shame they have fallen out if favour. I am also a decent shoe polisher. Here's a question I was once posed by someone who knows about these things. Have you ever seen a woman polish her shoes?
But when faced with the reality of voting now, they're not so sure.
Richard_Tyndall said:
» show previous quotes
I expect a very large swingback from UKIP to the Tories in 2015. I may not agree with the Tory meme about letting in Labour but it would be daft not to believe that many will. Whether it will be enough to save the Tories is another matter but those from UKIP pretending it will not happen and that those supporters are lost to the Tories for good are not being realistic.
Richard
Do you fancy my bet of the other day, of (say) £10 a point either side of 10% for UKIP in 2015?
I.e. if they score less than 7% of the poll you owe me £30. If they score over 16% I owe you £60.
Just looking for a bit of fun really - maybe it's £5 per point away from 8%, for example, rather than my 10 and 10.
Or anyone else fancy some of that?
Would shoe tax breaks solve dave's 'woman problem?'
If you really want attention at work, wear a bow tie for a day instead of a normal tie.
The one thing I can't stand is though is the very thin ties, I have dental floss that are thicker.
Watching the PPB when I've been in the gym, at least the lib dems made a case for EU membership and being part of it, regardless of if you agree with them or not.
Labour have nothing to say on the EU. They just want to duck and avoid being pinned down on anything, and that will probably continue as long as they can.
We really could do with Mrs. B.'s expertise on this - she was the shoe queen of PB.Com, but perhaps oneof our other lady contributors would like t chip in.
Is that approach going to bring out their vote at the euros? I have major doubts.
If that is true then third at the euros might be possible. And third in Newark.
She seemed utterly stunned that they could be cleaned!
Hmmmm
All taken around evens or a bit under/over:
Euros: UKIP (4-5)
London region Euros: Labour (11-10)
Newark: Conservative. (8-11)
FPT, to Hurst Llama.
That will be the next bandwagon that Ed leaps under - nationalising 'special cases' such as Astra Zeneca.
As you say there isn't much between the parties on this issue. My point was really that I didn't see why Labour, as opposed to the Conservatives, could not hold out for more housebuilding as the political cost to them might not be so great. Maybe Labour should look a little more closely at what exactly the political cost would be- it strikes me that you do not have many seats to loose on the Surrey/London borders for example! Nonetheless your response and the visceral reaction of Sandy Rentool makes one wonder whether there is a component of Labour's vote which could be best be characterized as NANBYs (Not in Anyone's BackYard) as opposed to NIMBYs. However because their votes are unlikely to be concentrated and presumably they do not have so much skin in the game (as they do not live where the development will actually take place) I am surprised that you are so concerned by them.
I would prefer terraced housing with roughly the same footprint as Victorian terraces and perhaps low rise blocks (4-6 stories) with smaller flats closer to the inner cities. I think that would be a reasonable compromise between suburban sprawl and going all out for high rise. Nonetheless I take your point and your solution is certainly better than no solution- which is the status quo! Why not broadcast it from the rooftops!
Newcastle to qualify for Europe - fail! (That's what happens when you sell your best player in January)
Sunderland to go down - fail!
Two left in play:
Kippers to win the Euros
Scotland to vote Yes
With my track record, you know where not to put your money!
FPT:
welshowl said:
Though many years ago I worked for a German firm and the "dress code" was jeans and casual shirts if in our office/factory, even if clients were visiting, but if you went to the very same clients' offices/factories it was suit collar and tie. It seemed accepted by all and "worked" even if looking back it seems an odd mix.
I generally wear a tie and relatively smart suit for work, because I still meet corporate and regulatory types around the world who think that anyone lobbying on animal welfare is probably somewhere between a hippy and a nutter. You can see the relief on their faces when they see I'm a boring grey chap like themselves.
ping, transport and both urban and rural areas.
ANC 249 (-15)
DA 89 (+22)
EFF 25 (+25)
IFP 10 (-8)
NFP 6 (+6)
UDM 4 (nc)
VF PLUS 4 (nc)
COPE 3 (-27)
ACDP 3 (nc)
AIC 3 (+3)
AGANG 2 (+2)
PAC 1 (nc)
APC 1 (nc)
Simple Droop-LR would have brought another two parties into parliament (with one seat each).
"the tie being pretty much the key part if an ensemble where a man can make a statement."
And cuff-links, Mr Fett, don't forget cuff-links. This is another item of the Gentleman's ensemble that is falling foul of the current come as you feel like it mode (though more slowly). To a young man starting out I would say always wear cuff-links and chose them carefully.
Which is fair enough on one level...
I felt my one came pretty high up on that list, but even I can't compete with the Bolivian farmers one.
It's exactly a year until the next General Election. What do you think is the most likely result?
Conservative majority 25%
Labour majority 4%
Other majority 0%
Conservative-led coalition 8%
Labour-led coalition 6%
None of the above 57%
Presumably 57% expect a minority government!
Cute little thing too...although it did do a little wee in it after I took it outside..
Needless to say those shoes are never getting worn again for some reason.
The idea that a governing party, that has recently lost an election to the main opposition, through directly losing votes to that opposition, need not make any real effort to win those votes back to regain power is lunacy.
It's as silly as Kinnock and his talking heads saying the reason they lost in 1992 was because they didn't squeeze enough votes from the Lib Dems as the 3rd party.
They were wrong then and they are wrong now, for the same reasons: Labour will not regain power until it makes a direct - and successful - pitch for Conservative inclined floating voters to switch back to them.
@Richard_Tyndall, while I agree that there will some returning UKIP voters to the main 2 parties for the GE, It won't be nearly enough to help those 2 parties.
In the 49 odd weeks untill the elections UKIP will keep on building the party structure. It will also try to get on board more of those voters disillusioned with the Lab/Lib/con, and also those voters that have not voted at all for the last 3 elections. By GE 2015 KIP may have 100K± members. Then watch out!
On-topic, given the much smaller pool of LD Euro voters I'm not very surprised. As others have said, there is a small constituency of pro-EU voters and a larger constituency of those who, while not enamoured of the EU, are not convinced of the arguments for exit and that is Cameron's patch. Yet at the end of the day, Cameron's pitch is simply "trust me". The problem is he may not be in a position this time next year to keep to his commitment of a 2017 Referendum and those who either don't believe he can deliver or don't want him in place to be able to deliver form the other factions at work.
Off-topic, went for a walk this morning - in one Newham Ward, the businesses are backing the Tories against Labour yet next door similar businesses have Lib Dem posters. Incredibly, businesses have posters while none of the houses (large rental area) do.
I strongly suspect Labour will carry all 60 seats in Newham.
[am I the only thinking Labour are making a huge mistake of hating the Lib Dems and Clegg when they should be love-bombing the bejeezus out of them?]
There strategy's working though isn't it? They're ahead in the polls - and it's nice and simple. I'm sure it must keep the activists happy too.
RE:work ties.
I always seem to get it wrong. I was told to buy low sell high after one shirt combo - which although made me smile at the time I can't help but feel made me perhaps overly wary of non-tie warers in the long term.
welcome back marf
What are we betting on the Morris.
Fitalass - I got the Con leaflet today.
http://www.newsweek.com/israel-wont-stop-spying-us-249757
Israel responds by calling journalist anti-Semitic:
http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/Report-Israel-spies-on-the-US-far-more-than-other-close-US-351455
The boredom of a long sea journey can tempt passengers to look for early indicators of weather change, or at least a change in pace or direction of passage. There have however been few such indicators over the past few month. Mostly the figures and commentary are shouting "steady as she goes".
This morning's REC-KPMG Markit Report on Jobs may however be different.
A first reading of the report may yield little new: the rate of growth of permanent placements in the Labour Market accelerated in April with temp billings also growing but at a slower pace. Demand for staff increased too with vacancy levels increasing at a similar rate to March. Regional figures showed that growth was highest in the North and Midlands and slowest in the South. The private sector led growth at a "particularly sharp pace" but public sector recruitment also rose at a "solid" rate. Engineers were most in demand with Medical/Nursing/Care staff taking second place in the league table.
All signs of a healthy growing economy we might conclude, but Markit also report a sharpening fall in the availability of staff to fill vacancies:
For permanent candidates, the latest fall was the sharpest since October 2004, while for temporary workers it was the steepest since December 2000.
The usual effect of reduced staff availability is to drive pay upwards and the first signs of this happening are being reported:
Growth of permanent salaries accelerated further in April. The latest increase was the most marked since July 2007. Temporary staff pay increased at a solid pace that was sharper than in the preceding month.
Now this is a clear early indicator of the labour market tightening up suggesting that the slack in the economy, much touted by the Bank of England as a justification to maintain current monetary policies, is coming to an end.
Politically this should be good news for the government in the short term as wage inflation is likely to lead general inflation rapidly increasing standards of living and weakening any opposition attack based on "the cost of living crisis".
In the medium term however, a tightening labour market is likely to drive the need for increased immigration and bring forward the point at which the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates. Neither would represent a good political outcome if occurring before the General Election.
Osborne has proved himself to be a highly competent helmsman and navigator to date. If that reputation is to survive, some careful hands on potentially dangerous levers will be needed. Is it better to loosen immigration controls in order to prevent the labour market overheating? And if so what will be the political consequences?
Sometimes the news isn't always good.
I used to rip off the cuff buttons of my burtons shirts so I could wear mine. Honestly, you can't win with office fashion.
Mr. Llama, you should wear a tie.
Saw a little bit of Kirsty Wark's programme last night (didn't watch it as either rampant misogyny or rampant over-sensitivity would've annoyed me) and was unsurprised and depressed to see Cameron's perfectly fine 'Calm down, dear' line used as the sort of 'soft' anti-women line that can lead to more serious stuff.
I do think there's much misogyny but it's an aspect of, rather than the whole, story. A Call of Duty developer got death threats (as did, I think, his wife and kids) after miniscule changes to reloading times for weapons in a patch.
Still a bit on edge about the computer. I get the feeling the only way I'll find out for certain if I'm ok or not will be if I end up losing access to my e-mail and my bank account suddenly becomes empty.
As PBers know, my fashion sense is unparalleled.
twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/325399046216888320
I love ties, but have an irrational dislike of cufflinks.
Novelty cufflinks make me shudder.
I have a very simple pair of gold cufflinks, designed to look like buttons, that I wear most days. Apart from that, of course, I have a pair with an eagle's head on them for black and white tie. That's all I need.
Simple and understated is good when it comes to cufflinks.
An Independence for Europe is not top of the list - it's 2nd - top is a Party called 4 Freedom.
UKIP right at the bottom - interestingly there was a fold just above the bottom - when I first opened ballot paper I couldn't see UKIP at all!
However, this is classic "boom and bust" territory and we've been before countless times. Wages start to rise as there is pressure on jobs (especially if immigration is further constrained) and our old friend inflation starts to stalk the land. This was how it was in the late 1980s in the south east and that didn't end well.
Phantasy Star IV was for the Mega Drive (and is arguably the best game I've ever played. You can get it for modern consoles, Playstation at least, with a Sega Classics collection).
Mr. Jim, you missed some truly, wonderfully awful voice acting.
Mr. Eagles, not heard of any of those, but unless they're cassette games for an Amstrad I raise you a Ghostbusters game, for an Amstrad (can't recall the type).
http://order-order.com/2014/05/09/watch-labour-release-another-clegg-attack-video/
Ties should be fun, and as I only wear them a few times a year I enjoy them, as they add colour and individuality. Cufflinks are also worn for pleasure. In my collection have my Dads cufflinks, which is a nice reminder of him at times, then my eclectic selection including pigs, elephants and sundry other random styles.
Bow ties (outside formal attire) are to me (based on experience) the sign of an insecure individual who should not be trusted.
Mr. Briskin, I find it hard to believe Secret of Mana predated cassette games... unless it was a text-based roleplaying game or something like that. Perhaps.
This shows the Tories winning 310 seats (+4 over the previous week), Labour winning 283 seats (-3) and the LibDems winning 29 seats (-1).
With the Tories now projected to be very marginally up on their 2010 GE seat count, this forecast suggests that they are set to win around 15-20 seats from the Libdems and to lose around 13-18 seats to Labour.
Were this to be the case, there are some very tasty odds available on backing Tory holds which in the betting markets are currently assumed to be near certain losses to Labour.
On this basis it may be worth looking at those seats which are between say the 30th and 60th Tory Seats most vulnerable to Labour. Is there a ready means of identifying these please anyone?
Pretty sure SNES was about the time of Mega Drive, whereas the godawful Amstrad predated it.
Still, from such machines as that are modern PCs and tablets descended. We had a typewriter too (sadly now gotten rid of) which I wrote a few stories on.
Mr. Putney, not sure if you saw me post it before but there's a question mark as to whether there'll be any F1 articles this week (first will be tomorrow, if there is). Should there be no further problems my intention is to put up a pre-qualifying piece tomorrow, but only if there's no more trouble.